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USM

Southern Miss 3 at Texas State 58

TXST
2024 · Week 12 · Nov 16, 2024 · Bobcat Stadium (TX)
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Win probability · TXST
modelTXST aheadUSM aheadconfidence bandkey playTXST scoreUSM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of GameFG-1TXST 95.3%Connor Gibbs 46 Yd Field GoalAWAY 3 - HOME 21 · Q2 10:22
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 10:22 · Connor Gibbs 46 Yd Field Goal
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
+45.5+22.80−22.8−45.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 54Pregame prior+36.2Home team on offense+8.8Score differential+3.1Blowout margin+0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.0Garbage-time factor+1.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 5:35: Jordan McCloud pass complete to Konner Fox for 23 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK) — TXST win probability +0.8 pts (now 95%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 2:12: Brad Jackson run for 10 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK) — TXST win probability +1.4 pts (now 96%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 10:22: Connor Gibbs 46 Yd Field Goal — USM win probability +1.0 pts (now 5%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 9:33: Jordan McCloud pass complete to Jaden Williams for 29 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley PAT MISSED) — TXST win probability +2.0 pts (now 98%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 0:34: Jordan McCloud pass complete to Ismail Mahdi for 15 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK) — TXST win probability +1.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TXST made the numbers' call on 2 of 5USM made the numbers' call on 11 of 12
  1. Q1 11:51TXST 4th & 1 at USM 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    94.5%−0.1
    64% to make
    Punt
    94.2%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:43USM 4th & 6 at USM 39, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.7%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:43USM 4th & 6 at USM 39, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.7%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:50USM 4th & 8 at USM 27, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.4%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:22USM 4th & 19 at TXST 29, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 3.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.9%−0.4
    11% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    3.2%
    58% to make
    Punt
    2.4%−0.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:47USM 4th & 6 at USM 29, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.0%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:41TXST 4th & 4 at USM 43, up 24
    Close callPunted · 97.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    97.0%−0.3
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    97.1%−0.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:41TXST 4th & 4 at USM 43, up 24
    Close callPunted · 97.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    97.0%−0.3
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    97.1%−0.2
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:49USM 4th & 18 at USM 8, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.3%−0.7
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.0%
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:41USM 4th & 10 at USM 25, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.5%
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:04USM 4th & 13 at TXST 25, down 38
    Close callWent for it · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.3%−0.1
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    0.4%
    66% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−0.4
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:18TXST 4th & 22 at USM 22, up 38
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−0.2
    7% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.9%
    72% to make
    Punt
    99.5%−0.4
    average punt
  13. Q3 2:17USM 4th & 4 at USM 31, down 41
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:28USM 4th & 4 at TXST 26, down 48
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−<0.1
    64% to make
    Punt
    -0.2%−0.3
    average punt
  15. Q4 9:41USM 4th & 1 at TXST 11, down 48
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    -0.0%−0.1
    87% to make
    Punt
    -0.3%−0.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:16USM 4th & 13 at USM 36, down 55
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    -0.0%−<0.1
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:43TXST 4th & 4 at TXST 42, up 55
    Close callPunted · 100.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    100.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TXST made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 10:06TXST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:35TXST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 2:12TXST Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 9:33TXST Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    97.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:34TXST Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 12:05TXST Touchdown, up 37 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 2:05TXST Touchdown, up 47 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 7:56TXST Touchdown, up 54 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TXSTDrive 1TD
15 plays · 87 yds · 4:3795% → 95%
Q1 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+6
95.4%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Kole Wilson for 6 yds to the TXST 19Similar
Q1 14:29
2ND & 4
OWN 19
+2
95.4%
Ismail Mahdi run for 2 yds to the TXST 21Similar
Q1 14:12
3RD & 2
OWN 21
+2
95.3%
Ismail Mahdi run for 2 yds to the TXST 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+42
95.2%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Kole Wilson for 42 yds to the USM 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
95.2%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Kole Wilson for 1 yd to the USM 34Similar
Q1 12:43
2ND & 9
OPP 34
+4
95.1%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Konner Fox for 4 yds to the USM 30Similar
Q1 12:28
3RD & 5
OPP 30
+4
95.0%
Jordan McCloud run for 4 yds to the USM 26Similar
Q1 11:51
4TH & 1
OPP 26
+1
94.9%
Deion Hankins run for 1 yd to the USM 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:37
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-3
94.9%
Jordan McCloud sacked by Jalil Clemons for a loss of 3 yards to the USM 28Similar
Q1 11:02
2ND & 13
OPP 28
+3
94.8%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Jaden Williams for 3 yds to the USM 25Similar
Q1 10:42
3RD & 10
OPP 25
+5
94.7%
(10:46) No Huddle-Shotgun McCloud,Jordan pass incomplete deep right to Williams,Jaden thrown to USM00 PENALTY USM Offside (Moore,Caleb) 5 yards from USM25 to USM20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:36
3RD & 5
OPP 20
+9
94.7%
Ismail Mahdi run for 9 yds to the USM 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:06
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
94.9%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Ismail Mahdi for 11 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 2:135% → 6%
Q1 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
94.8%
Ethan Crawford run for 10 yds to the USM 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
94.7%
Ethan Crawford pass complete to Tiaquelin Mims for 1 yd to the USM 36Similar
Q1 9:02
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+1
94.6%
Kenyon Clay run for 1 yd to the USM 37Similar
Q1 8:05
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+2
94.5%
Ethan Crawford run for 2 yds to the USM 39Similar
Q1 7:43
4TH & 6
OWN 39
0
94.5%
Bryce Lofton punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Joey Hobert at the TXST 12Similar
Q1 7:43
4TH & 6
OWN 39
0
94.5%
Bryce Lofton punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Joey Hobert at the TXST 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 3TD
7 plays · 88 yds · 2:0594% → 95%
Q1 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
94.4%
Jordan McCloud pass incomplete to Kole WilsonSimilar
Q1 7:34
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+15
94.4%
Jordan McCloud run for 15 yds to the TXST 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
94.4%
Torrance Burgess Jr. run for 1 yd to the TXST 28Similar
Q1 6:40
2ND & 9
OWN 28
+39
94.3%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Jaden Williams for 39 yds to the USM 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:14
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
94.4%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Konner Fox for 3 yds to the USM 30Similar
Q1 5:48
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+7
94.4%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Joey Hobert for 7 yds to the USM 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
95.2%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Konner Fox for 23 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 1:395% → 5%
Q1 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
94.8%
Ethan Crawford run for no gain to the USM 25Similar
Q1 5:15
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
94.8%
Kenyon Clay run for 5 yds to the USM 30Similar
Q1 4:45
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+2
94.7%
Ethan Crawford pass complete to Kenyon Clay for 2 yds to the USM 32Similar
Q1 4:18
4TH & 3
OWN 32
-5
94.7%
(04:19) PENALTY USM False Start (Sledge,Avery) 5 yards from USM32 to USM27. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:50
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+42
94.7%
Bryce Lofton punt for 56 yds , Joey Hobert returns for 42 yds to the USM 41 Joey Hobert fumbled, recovered by TXST Michael Boudoin IIISimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 5TD
5 plays · 41 yds · 1:3495% → 96%
Q1 3:46
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
95.0%
Jordan McCloud pass incomplete to Ismail MahdiSimilar
Q1 3:32
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+16
95.0%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Beau Sparks for 16 yds to the USM 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:07
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+9
95.0%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Ismail Mahdi for 9 yds to the USM 16Similar
Q1 2:31
2ND & 1
OPP 16
+6
94.9%
Jordan McCloud run for 6 yds to the USM 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
96.3%
Brad Jackson run for 10 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 6FG
14 plays · 46 yds · 6:324% → 5%
Q1 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
96.1%
Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Davis Dalton for 16 yds to the USM 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-1
96.1%
Rodrigues Clark run for a loss of 1 yard to the USM 40Similar
Q1 0:50
2ND & 11
OWN 40
+11
96.1%
Tate Rodemaker run for 11 yds to the TXST 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
96.0%
Rodrigues Clark run for 2 yds to the TXST 47Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 8
OPP 47
0
96.1%
Tate Rodemaker pass incomplete to Tiaquelin MimsSimilar
Q2 14:46
3RD & 8
OPP 47
+10
96.2%
Ethan Crawford run for 10 yds to the TXST 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:18
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
96.0%
Ethan Crawford run for 1 yd to the TXST 36Similar
Q2 13:43
2ND & 9
OPP 36
+4
96.1%
Ethan Crawford run for 4 yds to the TXST 32Similar
Q2 13:07
3RD & 5
OPP 32
+12
96.0%
Ethan Crawford run for 12 yds to the TXST 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:24
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
96.0%
Ethan Crawford run for no gain to the TXST 20Similar
Q2 11:42
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+1
96.1%
Rodrigues Clark run for 1 yd to the TXST 19Similar
Q2 10:59
3RD & 9
OPP 19
-10
96.3%
Ethan Crawford sacked for a loss of 10 yards to the TXST 29Similar
Q2 10:22
4TH & 19
OPP 29
+46
95.3%
Connor Gibbs 46 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 7TD
6 plays · 70 yds · 0:4595% → 98%
Q2 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
95.3%
Jordan McCloud pass incomplete to Chris Dawn Jr.Similar
Q2 10:11
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+26
95.3%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Joey Hobert for 26 yds to the USM 44 for a 1ST down Southern Miss Penalty, Defensive Offside (Andrew Stein) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:47
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+10
95.5%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Beau Sparks for 10 yds to the USM 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
95.5%
(09:40) No Huddle-Shotgun McCloud,Jordan pass incomplete short right to Williams,Jaden thrown to USM33 PENALTY USM Offside (Clemons,Jalil) 5 yards from USM34 to USM29. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:33
1ST & 5
OPP 29
+29
97.5%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Jaden Williams for 29 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 4 yds · 0:343% → 3%
Q2 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
96.9%
Ethan Crawford pass complete to Larry Simmons for 4 yds to the USM 29Similar
Q2 8:57
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
96.8%
Ethan Crawford pass incomplete to Larry SimmonsSimilar
Q2 8:54
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
96.9%
Ethan Crawford pass incomplete to Davis DaltonSimilar
Q2 8:47
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
97.0%
Bryce Lofton punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Joey Hobert at the TXST 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 9PUNT
9 plays · 34 yds · 2:5998% → 98%
Q2 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
97.6%
Deion Hankins run for 4 yds to the TXST 27Similar
Q2 8:20
2ND & 6
OWN 27
+2
97.8%
Deion Hankins run for 2 yds to the TXST 29Similar
Q2 7:42
3RD & 4
OWN 29
+8
97.7%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Joey Hobert for 8 yds to the TXST 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+14
97.8%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Joey Hobert for 14 yds to the USM 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:54
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
97.9%
Jordan McCloud run for no gain to the USM 49Similar
Q2 6:23
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+6
97.9%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Kole Wilson for 6 yds to the USM 43Similar
Q2 5:49
3RD & 4
OPP 43
0
97.9%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:41
4TH & 4
OPP 43
0
97.8%
David Nunez punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Tiaquelin Mims at the USM 5Similar
Q2 5:41
4TH & 4
OPP 43
0
97.8%
David Nunez punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Tiaquelin Mims at the USM 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 10PUNT
9 plays · 3 yds · 3:453% → 3%
Q2 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+1
97.0%
Rodrigues Clark run for 1 yd to the USM 6Similar
Q2 5:04
2ND & 9
OWN 6
+5
97.1%
Rodrigues Clark run for 5 yds to the USM 11Similar
Q2 4:26
3RD & 4
OWN 11
+5
97.1%
Ethan Crawford run for 5 yds to the USM 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-12
97.0%
Ethan Crawford sacked for a loss of 12 yards to the USM 4Similar
Q2 3:06
2ND & 22
OWN 4
-3
97.1%
Rodrigues Clark run for a loss of 3 yards to the USM 1Similar
Q2 2:20
3RD & 25
OWN 1
+7
97.3%
Rodrigues Clark run for 7 yds to the USM 8Similar
Q2 1:49
4TH & 18
OWN 8
+14
97.3%
Bryce Lofton punt for 52 yds , Kole Wilson returns for 14 yds to the USM 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 11INT
4 plays · 12 yds · 0:193% → 3%
Q2 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+11
96.8%
Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Kenyon Clay for 11 yds to the TXST 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:22
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
96.7%
Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Kenyon Clay for 1 yd to the TXST 33Similar
Q2 1:17
2ND & 9
OPP 33
0
96.7%
Tate Rodemaker pass incomplete to Larry SimmonsSimilar
Q2 1:14
3RD & 9
OPP 33
0
96.8%
Tate Rodemaker pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 12TD
5 plays · 74 yds · 0:3398% → 99%
Q2 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+33
98.0%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Kole Wilson for 33 yds to the USM 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:01
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+16
98.1%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Beau Sparks for 16 yds to the USM 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+10
98.1%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Ismail Mahdi for 10 yds to the USM 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
99.3%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Ismail Mahdi for 15 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 13END OF HALF
3 plays · 13 yds · 0:261% → 1%
Q2 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
99.3%
JQ Gray run for 10 yds to the USM 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
99.3%
JQ Gray run for 3 yds to the USM 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:131% → 1%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.3%
Kenyon Clay run for no gain to the USM 25Similar
Q3 14:24
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
99.5%
Kenyon Clay run for no gain to the USM 25Similar
Q3 13:46
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
99.5%
Tate Rodemaker pass incomplete to Larry SimmonsSimilar
Q3 13:41
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
99.5%
Bryce Lofton punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Kole Wilson at the TXST 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 15TD
4 plays · 69 yds · 1:3199% → 100%
Q3 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
99.4%
Torrance Burgess Jr. run for 4 yds to the TXST 35Similar
Q3 13:16
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+4
99.4%
Torrance Burgess Jr. run for 4 yds to the TXST 39Similar
Q3 12:36
3RD & 2
OWN 39
+4
99.5%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Chris Dawn Jr. for 4 yds to the TXST 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+57
99.6%
Torrance Burgess Jr. run for 57 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 16DOWNS
9 plays · 50 yds · 3:550% → 0%
Q3 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.6%
Rodrigues Clark run for 3 yds to the USM 28Similar
Q3 11:26
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+27
99.6%
Rodrigues Clark run for 27 yds to the TXST 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:51
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
99.6%
Rodrigues Clark run for 2 yds to the TXST 43Similar
Q3 9:58
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+21
99.6%
Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Kenyon Clay for 21 yds to the TXST 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:26
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-2
99.6%
Kenyon Clay run for a loss of 2 yards to the TXST 24Similar
Q3 8:46
2ND & 12
OPP 24
-1
99.6%
Kenyon Clay run for a loss of 1 yard to the TXST 25Similar
Q3 8:10
3RD & 13
OPP 25
0
99.7%
Tate Rodemaker pass incomplete to Kyirin HeathSimilar
Q3 8:04
4TH & 13
OPP 25
0
99.6%
Tate Rodemaker pass incomplete to Davis DaltonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 17FG
13 plays · 53 yds · 4:39100% → 100%
Q3 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.7%
Deion Hankins run for 1 yd to the TXST 26Similar
Q3 7:24
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+2
99.7%
Deion Hankins run for 2 yds to the TXST 28Similar
Q3 6:42
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+14
99.7%
Brad Jackson pass complete to Titus Lyons for 14 yds to the TXST 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-5
99.8%
(06:17) PENALTY SWT False Start 5 yards from SWT42 to SWT37. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:00
1ST & 15
OWN 37
+16
99.8%
Brad Jackson run for 16 yds to the USM 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:39
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
99.8%
Brad Jackson run for 6 yds to the USM 41Similar
Q3 5:18
2ND & 4
OPP 41
+6
99.8%
Lincoln Pare run for 6 yds to the USM 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:52
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+28
99.8%
Brad Jackson pass complete to Kole Wilson for 28 yds to the USM 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
99.8%
Brad Jackson pass complete to Chris Dawn Jr. for no gain to the USM 7Similar
Q3 3:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-15
99.8%
(03:35) No Huddle-Shotgun Jackson,Brad pass incomplete short middle to Wilson,Kole thrown to USM02 PENALTY SWT Pass Interference (Lyons,Titus) 15 yards from USM07 to USM22. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 22
0
99.8%
Brad Jackson pass incomplete to Chris Dawn Jr.Similar
Q3 3:24
3RD & GOAL
OPP 22
0
99.8%
Brad Jackson pass incomplete to Chris Dawn Jr.Similar
Q3 3:18
4TH & GOAL
OPP 22
+40
99.8%
Mason Shipley 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:560% → 0%
Q3 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.8%
Tate Rodemaker pass incomplete to Larry SimmonsSimilar
Q3 3:07
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
99.8%
Tate Rodemaker pass incomplete to Davis DaltonSimilar
Q3 2:53
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+6
99.8%
Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Tiaquelin Mims for 6 yds to the USM 31Similar
Q3 2:17
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+12
99.9%
Bryce Lofton punt for 41 yds , Kole Wilson returns for 12 yds to the TXST 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 19TD
1 play · 60 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+60
99.9%
Brad Jackson pass complete to Drew Donley for 60 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 20DOWNS
17 plays · 53 yds · 6:580% → 0%
Q3 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
99.9%
Rodrigues Clark run for 4 yds to the USM 40Similar
Q3 1:13
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+2
99.9%
Kenyon Clay run for 2 yds to the USM 42Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+9
99.9%
Kenyon Clay run for 9 yds to the TXST 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-3
99.9%
Kenyon Clay run for a loss of 3 yards to the USM 48Similar
Q4 14:14
2ND & 13
OWN 48
-3
99.9%
Kenyon Clay run for a loss of 3 yards to the USM 45Similar
Q4 13:38
3RD & 16
OWN 45
+15
99.9%
Texas State Penalty, Roughing The Passer (James Neal) to the TXST 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:19
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-8
99.9%
Tate Rodemaker sacked by Jermy Jackson Jr. for a loss of 8 yards to the TXST 40Similar
Q4 12:55
2ND & 18
OPP 40
+5
99.9%
(12:57) No Huddle-Shotgun Rodemaker,Tate pass incomplete deep right to Jackson,Dannis thrown to SWT08 broken up by Thompson,Donte PENALTY SWT Offside (Jackson Jr.,Jermy) 5 yards from SWT40 to SWT35. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:49
2ND & 13
OPP 35
+3
99.9%
Rodrigues Clark run for 3 yds to the TXST 32Similar
Q4 12:11
3RD & 10
OPP 32
+6
99.9%
Rodrigues Clark run for 6 yds to the TXST 26Similar
Q4 11:28
4TH & 4
OPP 26
+6
99.9%
JQ Gray run for 6 yds to the TXST 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
99.9%
JQ Gray run for no gain to the TXST 20Similar
Q4 10:26
2ND & 10
OPP 20
0
99.9%
Tate Rodemaker pass incomplete to Ray Daly Jr.Similar
Q4 10:21
3RD & 10
OPP 20
+9
99.9%
Rodrigues Clark run for 9 yds to the TXST 11Similar
Q4 9:41
4TH & 1
OPP 11
0
99.9%
Rodrigues Clark run for no gain to the TXST 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 21TD
4 plays · 89 yds · 1:35100% → 100%
Q4 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+10
99.9%
PJ Hatter run for 10 yds to the TXST 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+7
99.9%
PJ Hatter run for 7 yds to the TXST 28Similar
Q4 8:30
2ND & 3
OWN 28
+4
99.9%
PJ Hatter run for 4 yds to the TXST 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+68
99.9%
Lincoln Pare run for 68 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 2:290% → 0%
Q4 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
100.0%
JQ Gray run for 14 yds to the USM 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-1
100.0%
JQ Gray run for a loss of 1 yard to the USM 38Similar
Q4 6:43
2ND & 11
OWN 38
0
100.0%
JQ Gray run for no gain to the USM 38Similar
Q4 6:02
3RD & 11
OWN 38
-2
100.0%
JQ Gray run for a loss of 2 yards to the USM 36Similar
Q4 5:16
4TH & 13
OWN 36
0
100.0%
Bryce Lofton punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Beau Sparks at the TXST 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 23PUNT
9 plays · 28 yds · 3:22100% → 100%
Q4 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+11
100.0%
PJ Hatter run for 11 yds to the TXST 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
100.0%
Deion Hankins run for 2 yds to the TXST 27Similar
Q4 4:05
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+6
100.0%
PJ Hatter run for 6 yds to the TXST 33Similar
Q4 3:29
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+3
100.0%
Deion Hankins run for 3 yds to the TXST 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
100.0%
Deion Hankins run for a loss of 1 yard to the TXST 35Similar
Q4 2:12
2ND & 11
OWN 35
-1
100.0%
PJ Hatter run for a loss of 1 yard to the TXST 34Similar
Q4 1:53
3RD & 12
OWN 34
+8
100.0%
PJ Hatter run for 8 yds to the TXST 42Similar
Q4 1:43
4TH & 4
OWN 42
0
100.0%
Lars Rau punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Zay Franks at the USM 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 24END OF GAME
3 plays · -5 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-2
100.0%
JQ Gray run for a loss of 2 yards to the USM 33Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 12
OWN 33
-4
100.0%
JQ Gray run for a loss of 4 yards to the USM 29Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 16
OWN 29
+1
100.0%
JQ Gray run for 1 yd to the USM 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 9:33
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Jaden Williams for 29 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley PAT MISSED)
+2
TD · Q1 2:12
Brad Jackson run for 10 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)
+1.4
TD · Q2 0:34
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Ismail Mahdi for 15 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)
+1.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com