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TROY

Troy 28 at Georgia Southern 20

GASO
2024 · Week 12 · Nov 16, 2024 · Allen E. Paulson Stadium
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Win probability · GASO
modelGASO aheadTROY aheadconfidence bandkey playGASO scoreTROY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 12:43 · Alex Smith punt for 43 yds , Devonte Ross returns for 5 yds to the TROY 39
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+40.0+20.00−20.0−40.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 42Pregame prior+14.9Home team on offense−0.1Garbage-time factor−0.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2Score differential−0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 7:50: Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Devonte Ross for 4 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK) — TROY win probability +15.1 pts (now 52%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 7:50: Timeout Georgia Southern, clock 07:50 — GASO win probability +5.4 pts (now 53%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 2:34: Jalen White run for 1 yd for a TD Troy Penalty, Personal Foul (Devin Lafayette) to the TROY 0 (Gavin Stewart KICK) — GASO win probability +26.3 pts (now 72%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 13:34: Matthew Caldwell run for 2 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK) — TROY win probability +24.8 pts (now 65%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:32: Matthew Caldwell run for 1 yd for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK) — TROY win probability +23.1 pts (now 96%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
GASO made the numbers' call on 3 of 5TROY made the numbers' call on 1 of 3
  1. Q1 7:40TROY 4th & 3 at GASO 10, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 32.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.0%
    49% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    31.9%−0.1
    88% to make
    Punt
    30.8%−1.2
    average punt
  2. Q2 12:43GASO 4th & 12 at GASO 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.2%−0.9
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.2%
    average punt
  3. Q2 9:01TROY 4th & 12 at GASO 37, tied
    Close callPunted · 34.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.4%−0.3
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    34.7%
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    34.5%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 7:40GASO 4th & 8 at GASO 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.4%−1.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 3:00TROY 4th & 21 at GASO 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.2%−1.4
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:27GASO 4th & 3 at TROY 3, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 65.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.5%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    65.0%−0.5
    93% to make
    Punt
    59.8%−5.7
    average punt
  7. Q3 13:43GASO 4th & 8 at GASO 27, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.6%−1.4
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.0%
    average punt
  8. Q4 10:43GASO 4th & 3 at TROY 27, down 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsKicked a field goal · 45.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.4%−1.4
    62% to make
    Punt
    32.5%−12.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
GASO made the numbers' call on 2 of 2TROY made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 1:56GASO Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:23TROY Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 7:50TROY Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 2:34GASO Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 13:34TROY Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.8%−0.4
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 2:32TROY Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.4%−4.9
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TROYDrive 1MISSED FG
16 plays · 65 yds · 7:2029% → 31%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
70.8%
Matthew Caldwell pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:56
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
70.8%
Damien Taylor run for 3 yds to the TROY 28Similar
Q1 14:17
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+11
70.7%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Ethan Conner for 11 yds to the TROY 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
70.5%
Damien Taylor run for 2 yds to the TROY 41Similar
Q1 12:58
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+18
70.3%
Damien Taylor run for 18 yds to the GASO 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:21
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
70.1%
Matthew Caldwell pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:16
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+11
70.1%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Brody Dalton for 11 yds to the GASO 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
69.8%
Damien Taylor run for 5 yds to the GASO 25Similar
Q1 11:13
2ND & 5
OPP 25
-5
69.6%
Troy Penalty, False Start (Raymond Cutts) to the GASO 30Similar
Q1 10:54
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+8
69.5%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Landon Parker for 8 yds to the GASO 22Similar
Q1 10:09
3RD & 2
OPP 22
+5
69.4%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Devonte Ross for 5 yds to the GASO 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:31
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
69.1%
Matthew Caldwell run for 3 yds to the GASO 14Similar
Q1 9:01
2ND & 7
OPP 14
-3
68.9%
Matthew Caldwell run for a loss of 3 yards to the GASO 17 Matthew Caldwell fumbled, recovered by TROY Matthew Caldwell M. Caldwell return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q1 8:07
3RD & 10
OPP 17
+7
68.8%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Devonte Ross for 7 yds to the GASO 10Similar
Q1 7:40
4TH & 3
OPP 10
+24
68.9%
Scott Taylor Renfroe 24 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 2TD
16 plays · 80 yds · 5:4269% → 73%
Q1 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
69.3%
Jalen White run for 5 yds to the GASO 25Similar
Q1 7:04
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+15
69.3%
(07:04) FRENCH, JC pass deep to the right incomplete intended for BURGESS JR., Derwin thrown to the TRY40, clock 06:58. PENALTY TRY Pass Interference on GREEN, LJ enforced 15 yards to the GS40 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 6:57
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
69.7%
JC French pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:51
2ND & 10
OWN 40
-10
69.5%
(06:51) WHITE, Jalen rush to the left for a gain of 48 yards to the TRY12 (YANCEY, Damaje), clock 06:40. PENALTY GS Holding on STRONG, Chandler enforced 10 yards from the GS40 to the GS30 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 6:25
2ND & 20
OWN 30
+15
69.0%
Troy Penalty, Personal Foul (Luis Medina) to the GASO 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
69.8%
OJ Arnold run for 4 yds to the GASO 49Similar
Q1 5:56
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+16
69.8%
JC French pass complete to Beau Johnson for 16 yds to the TROY 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:29
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
70.1%
OJ Arnold run for 6 yds to the TROY 29Similar
Q1 4:51
2ND & 4
OPP 29
0
70.1%
JC French pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:45
3RD & 4
OPP 29
+11
69.7%
JC French pass complete to Derwin Burgess Jr. for 11 yds to the TROY 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:06
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+10
70.0%
Jalen White run for 10 yds to the TROY 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
70.0%
Jalen White run for no gain to the TROY 8Similar
Q1 2:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-9
70.0%
JC French sacked by Jordan Stringer for a loss of 9 yards to the TROY 17Similar
Q1 2:07
3RD & GOAL
OPP 17
+9
68.9%
(02:07) FRENCH, JC pass deep to the right incomplete intended for BURGESS JR., Derwin thrown to the TRY0, clock 02:00. PENALTY TRY Holding on WELCH, Shemar enforced half the distance from the goal, 9 yards from the TRY17 to the TRY8 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 2:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
70.0%
Troy Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (TEAM) to the TROY 4Similar
Q1 1:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
73.4%
Josh Dallas run for 4 yds for a TD (Gavin Stewart KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 3TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 2:3328% → 35%
Q1 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+31
72.0%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Devonte Ross for 31 yds to the GASO 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+33
70.8%
Gerald Green run for 33 yds to the GASO 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:39
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
70.0%
Gerald Green run for no gain to the GASO 11Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+5
69.9%
Gerald Green run for 5 yds to the GASO 6Similar
Q2 14:23
3RD & 5
OPP 6
+6
65.3%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Brody Dalton for 6 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 4PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:3968% → 66%
Q2 14:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
67.9%
JC French pass complete to Dalen Cobb for 8 yds to the GASO 33 Georgia Southern Penalty, Offensive Holding (Derwin Burgess Jr.) to the GASO 18Similar
Q2 14:07
1ST & 17
OWN 18
-1
67.8%
Jalen White run for a loss of 1 yard to the GASO 17Similar
Q2 13:28
2ND & 18
OWN 17
+6
67.5%
JC French pass complete to Jalen White for 6 yds to the GASO 23Similar
Q2 12:50
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
66.7%
JC French pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:43
4TH & 12
OWN 23
+5
66.3%
Alex Smith punt for 43 yds , Devonte Ross returns for 5 yds to the TROY 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 24 yds · 3:3135% → 34%
Q2 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+11
65.5%
Matthew Caldwell run for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:53
1ST & 10
50
+15
64.5%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Devonte Ross for 15 yds to the GASO 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:17
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
63.7%
Damien Taylor run for no gain to the GASO 35Similar
Q2 10:41
2ND & 10
OPP 35
-5
63.5%
Troy Penalty, False Start (Landon Parker) to the GASO 40Similar
Q2 10:18
2ND & 15
OPP 40
-1
64.8%
Matthew Caldwell run for a loss of 1 yard to the GASO 41Similar
Q2 9:37
3RD & 16
OPP 41
+4
65.2%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Devonte Ross for 4 yds to the GASO 37Similar
Q2 9:01
4TH & 12
OPP 37
0
65.7%
Robert Cole punt for 24 yds, fair catch by Josh Dallas at the GASO 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:1667% → 65%
Q2 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+1
66.9%
Marcus Sanders Jr. run for 1 yd to the GASO 14Similar
Q2 8:25
2ND & 9
OWN 14
+1
66.6%
David Mbadinga run for 1 yd to the GASO 15Similar
Q2 7:47
3RD & 8
OWN 15
0
65.4%
JC French pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:40
4TH & 8
OWN 15
0
64.9%
Alex Smith punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Devonte Ross at the TROY 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 7PUNT
9 plays · 12 yds · 4:3238% → 37%
Q2 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
62.4%
Jordan Lovett run for 3 yds to the TROY 43Similar
Q2 6:58
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+4
61.7%
Jordan Lovett run for 4 yds to the TROY 47Similar
Q2 6:23
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+5
61.7%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Peyton Higgins for 5 yds to the GASO 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:47
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
60.7%
Jordan Lovett run for no gain to the GASO 48Similar
Q2 5:08
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+11
60.8%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Landon Parker for 11 yds to the GASO 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:28
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-13
60.1%
Troy Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Matthew Caldwell) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 4:22
2ND & 23
50
-5
61.9%
Matthew Caldwell sacked by Jacob Ferguson for a loss of 5 yards to the TROY 45Similar
Q2 3:36
3RD & 28
OWN 45
+7
62.8%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Ethan Conner for 7 yds to the GASO 48Similar
Q2 3:00
4TH & 21
OPP 48
0
63.5%
Robert Cole punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Josh Dallas at the GASO 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 8FG
15 plays · 82 yds · 2:2765% → 72%
Q2 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
65.2%
David Mbadinga run for 3 yds to the GASO 18Similar
Q2 2:34
2ND & 7
OWN 18
+6
65.1%
JC French pass complete to David Mbadinga for 6 yds to the GASO 24Similar
Q2 1:58
3RD & 1
OWN 24
+1
64.2%
OJ Arnold run for 1 yd to the GASO 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+25
64.9%
JC French pass complete to Josh Dallas for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
50
+5
67.7%
JC French pass complete to OJ Arnold for 5 yds to the TROY 45Similar
Q2 1:19
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+20
66.5%
JC French pass complete to Josh Dallas for 20 yds to the TROY 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+15
67.3%
(01:10) FRENCH, JC pass deep to the right incomplete intended for COBB, Dalen thrown to the TRY0, clock 01:05. PENALTY TRY Pass Interference on YANCEY, Damaje enforced half the distance from the goal, 15 yards to the TRY10 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 1:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+7
67.3%
OJ Arnold run for 7 yds to the TROY 3Similar
Q2 0:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
68.7%
JC French pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:37
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
69.4%
JC French pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:27
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+21
71.8%
Gavin Stewart 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 9END OF HALF
4 plays · 23 yds · 0:2431% → 34%
Q2 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
68.8%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Jordan Lovett for 7 yds to the TROY 32Similar
Q2 0:21
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+6
67.2%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Jordan Lovett for 6 yds to the TROY 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+10
67.3%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Jordan Lovett for 10 yds to the TROY 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
65.9%
Matthew Caldwell pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:1669% → 68%
Q3 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
68.5%
Jalen White run for 3 yds to the GASO 28Similar
Q3 14:31
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-1
69.7%
JC French pass complete to Dalen Cobb for a loss of 1 yard to the GASO 27Similar
Q3 13:49
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
68.2%
JC French pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:43
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
67.5%
Alex Smith punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Devonte Ross at the TROY 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 11TD
12 plays · 71 yds · 5:4732% → 52%
Q3 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
68.0%
Damien Taylor run for no gain to the TROY 29Similar
Q3 12:59
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+9
68.3%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Devonte Ross for 9 yds to the TROY 38Similar
Q3 12:19
3RD & 1
OWN 38
+1
66.0%
Damien Taylor run for 1 yd to the TROY 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
66.3%
Damien Taylor run for 1 yd to the TROY 40Similar
Q3 11:06
2ND & 9
OWN 40
0
66.5%
Matthew Caldwell pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:00
3RD & 9
OWN 40
+15
67.5%
Matthew Caldwell run for 15 yds to the GASO 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+11
64.6%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Devonte Ross for 11 yds to the GASO 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:44
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+15
63.4%
Damien Taylor run for 15 yds to the GASO 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+14
62.9%
Damien Taylor run for 14 yds to the GASO 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
62.7%
Damien Taylor run for 1 yd to the GASO 4Similar
Q3 7:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
47.7%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Devonte Ross for 4 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 12TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:1451% → 72%
Q3 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
51.0%
JC French pass complete to Derwin Burgess Jr. for 14 yds to the GASO 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+23
51.2%
JC French pass complete to Dalen Cobb for 23 yds to the TROY 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:54
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+8
54.2%
OJ Arnold run for 8 yds to the TROY 30Similar
Q3 6:17
2ND & 2
OPP 30
+15
55.9%
JC French pass complete to OJ Arnold for 15 yds to the TROY 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:38
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+8
55.9%
JC French pass complete to Dalen Cobb for 8 yds to the TROY 7Similar
Q3 4:53
2ND & 2
OPP 7
-7
55.0%
JC French pass complete to Dalen Cobb for a loss of 7 yards to the TROY 14Similar
Q3 4:14
3RD & 9
OPP 14
+10
52.1%
David Mbadinga run for 10 yds to the TROY 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
52.4%
JC French pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
48.1%
Jalen White run for 2 yds to the TROY 2Similar
Q3 2:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
45.5%
(02:45) FRENCH, JC pass short up the middle incomplete intended for WALTON, Elijah thrown to the TRY0, clock 02:42. PENALTY TRY Pass Interference on CONERLY-GOODLY, Ian enforced half the distance from the goal, 1 yards to the TRY1 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NH]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 2:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
71.8%
Jalen White run for 1 yd for a TD Troy Penalty, Personal Foul (Devin Lafayette) to the TROY 0 (Gavin Stewart KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 13TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:1733% → 65%
Q3 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
66.8%
Devonte Ross run for a loss of 1 yard to the TROY 24Similar
Q3 1:35
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+8
67.3%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Landon Parker for 8 yds to the TROY 32Similar
Q3 0:50
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+37
66.4%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Peyton Higgins for 37 yds to the GASO 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:06
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+29
58.9%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Ethan Conner for 29 yds to the GASO 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
57.9%
Matthew Caldwell run for 1 yd to the GASO 1Similar
Q4 14:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
59.4%
Damien Taylor run for a loss of 1 yard to the GASO 2Similar
Q4 13:34
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
34.6%
Matthew Caldwell run for 2 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 14FG
7 plays · 48 yds · 2:5039% → 45%
Q4 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
39.0%
(13:33) MBADINGA, David rush to the right for a gain of 4 yards to the GS29 (STRINGER, Jordan), clock 13:27. PENALTY TRY Offsides on YANCEY, Damaje enforced 5 yards from the GS25 to the GS30 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 13:11
1ST & 5
OWN 30
+22
41.1%
JC French pass complete to Josh Dallas for 22 yds to the TROY 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:36
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+14
44.0%
Josh Dallas run for 14 yds to the TROY 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:08
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
45.9%
David Mbadinga run for 5 yds to the TROY 29Similar
Q4 11:37
2ND & 5
OPP 29
+2
45.5%
JC French pass complete to Josh Dallas for 2 yds to the TROY 27Similar
Q4 10:50
3RD & 3
OPP 27
0
42.6%
JC French pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:43
4TH & 3
OPP 27
+45
44.9%
Gavin Stewart 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 15TD
20 plays · 75 yds · 8:0953% → 96%
Q4 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
46.8%
Matthew Caldwell pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:35
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
47.5%
Jordan Lovett run for 4 yds to the TROY 29Similar
Q4 9:58
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+8
47.3%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Landon Parker for 8 yds to the TROY 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
42.9%
Damien Taylor run for 4 yds to the TROY 41Similar
Q4 9:02
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+2
43.8%
Damien Taylor run for 2 yds to the TROY 43Similar
Q4 8:24
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+6
43.8%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Peyton Higgins for 6 yds to the TROY 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
40.1%
Matthew Caldwell pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:37
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+2
40.7%
Matthew Caldwell run for 2 yds to the GASO 49Similar
Q4 7:03
3RD & 8
OPP 49
+12
39.5%
(07:03) CALDWELL, Matthew pass to the right incomplete intended for CONNER, Ethan thrown to the GS40, clock 07:00. PENALTY GS Holding on GAMBLE, Chance enforced 12 yards from the GS49 to the GS37 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 6:04
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+9
36.2%
Damien Taylor run for 9 yds to the GASO 28Similar
Q4 5:47
2ND & 1
OPP 28
+2
33.5%
Damien Taylor run for 2 yds to the GASO 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:37
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+9
33.3%
Damien Taylor run for 9 yds to the GASO 17Similar
Q4 5:03
2ND & 1
OPP 17
+6
32.6%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Devonte Ross for 6 yds to the GASO 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:23
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
31.3%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Devonte Ross for 3 yds to the GASO 8Similar
Q4 3:42
2ND & 7
OPP 8
+7
30.9%
Damien Taylor run for 7 yds to the GASO 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
28.5%
Georgia Southern Penalty, Offsides (Latrell Bullard) to the GASO 0 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
27.2%
Matthew Caldwell run for no gain to the GASO 1Similar
Q4 2:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
4.4%
Matthew Caldwell run for 1 yd for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 16INT
3 plays · 3 yds · 0:315% → 5%
Q4 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
4.8%
JC French pass complete to Jalen White for 3 yds to the GASO 28Similar
Q4 2:01
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
4.6%
JC French pass intercepted Justin Powe return for no gain to the GASO 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 17END OF GAME
7 plays · 23 yds · 1:2297% → 98%
Q4 1:56
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
3.0%
Gerald Green run for 2 yds to the GASO 46Similar
Q4 1:50
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+1
3.0%
Gerald Green run for 1 yd to the GASO 45Similar
Q4 1:03
3RD & 7
OPP 45
+23
2.4%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Brody Dalton for 23 yds to the GASO 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:34
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-3
2.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the GASO 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 2:34
Jalen White run for 1 yd for a TD Troy Penalty, Personal Foul (Devin Lafayette) to the TROY 0 (Gavin Stewart KICK)
+26.3
TD · Q4 13:34
Matthew Caldwell run for 2 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)
-24.8
TD · Q4 2:32
Matthew Caldwell run for 1 yd for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)
-23.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com