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MRSH

Marshall 37 at Southern Miss 3

USM
2024 · Week 11 · Nov 9, 2024 · M. M. Roberts Stadium
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Win probability · USM
modelUSM aheadMRSH aheadconfidence bandkey playUSM scoreMRSH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDTDTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 8:04 · Ethan Payne run for 3 yds to the USM 38 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+58.0+29.00−29.0−58.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 108Home team on offense−41.4Pregame prior−13.4Score differential−23.2Garbage-time factor−11.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−4.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:43: Braylon Braxton run for 2 yds for a TD (Nathan Totten KICK) — MRSH win probability +3.2 pts (now 79%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 10:02: Connor Gibbs 51 yd FG GOOD — USM win probability +4.4 pts (now 24%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 6:42: Ethan Payne run for 36 yds for a TD (Nathan Totten KICK) — MRSH win probability +12.0 pts (now 87%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 13:29: Tychaun Chapman run for 14 yds for a TD (Nathan Totten KICK) — MRSH win probability +7.8 pts (now 93%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 10:45: Braylon Braxton pass complete to Toby Payne for 18 yds for a TD (Nathan Totten KICK) — MRSH win probability +3.7 pts (now 98%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USM made the numbers' call on 6 of 11MRSH made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 13:53USM 4th & 1 at USM 34, tied
    Close callPunted · 20.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.6%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:40MRSH 4th & 3 at USM 5, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 78.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.9%
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    78.8%−0.1
    92% to make
    Punt
    78.3%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:14USM 4th & 4 at MRSH 47, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    22.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:04MRSH 4th & 13 at USM 15, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 75.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.5%−0.3
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.8%
    83% to make
    Punt
    74.8%−1.0
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:55MRSH 4th & 2 at USM 2, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 75.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    75.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    75.0%−0.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    73.3%−2.1
    average punt
  6. Q1 2:30USM 4th & 7 at USM 5, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.1%−0.5
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:02USM 4th & 8 at MRSH 34, down 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 21.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.7%
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    21.7%−<0.1
    47% to make
    Punt
    21.4%−0.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:29USM 4th & 5 at USM 30, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.0%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.1%
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:46MRSH 4th & 2 at MRSH 24, up 14
    Close callPunted · 82.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.1%−0.2
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:03USM 4th & 15 at MRSH 46, down 14
    Numbers favored punt by 1.0 ptsWent for it · 16.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.3%−1.0
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    15.4%−1.0
    23% to make
    Punt
    16.4%
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:17USM 4th & 18 at USM 17, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.4%−1.5
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:04MRSH 4th & 1 at USM 41, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    97.8%−0.2
    32% to make
    Punt
    97.8%−0.2
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:35MRSH 4th & 4 at USM 32, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    98.0%−0.1
    51% to make
    Punt
    98.0%−0.1
    average punt
  14. Q3 3:19MRSH 4th & 8 at USM 9, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.9%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.0%
    89% to make
    Punt
    97.5%−0.5
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:58MRSH 4th & 23 at USM 25, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.0%−0.2
    7% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.2%
    66% to make
    Punt
    98.8%−0.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 12:14USM 4th & 20 at USM 30, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−0.2
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%
    average punt
  17. Q4 8:26MRSH 4th & 4 at USM 8, up 31
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%
    42% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.6%−<0.1
    90% to make
    Punt
    99.2%−0.5
    average punt
  18. Q4 6:51USM 4th & 1 at USM 34, down 34
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  19. Q4 3:15USM 4th & 7 at MRSH 26, down 34
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%
    64% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−0.1
    average punt
  20. Q4 0:15USM 4th & 5 at MRSH 29, down 34
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%
    58% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MRSH made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q2 13:43MRSH Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 6:42MRSH Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 13:29MRSH Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 10:45MRSH Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USMDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:0620% → 20%
Q1 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
19.8%
Rodrigues Clark run for 2 yds to the USM 27Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
20.0%
Rodrigues Clark run for 2 yds to the USM 29Similar
Q1 13:56
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
20.3%
Ethan Crawford pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:53
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
20.3%
punt for 47 ydsSimilar
Q1 13:51
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+5
20.3%
Marshall Penalty, Offsides (5 Yards) to the USM 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 2FG
5 plays · 76 yds · 1:0680% → 79%
Q1 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+69
20.4%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Christian Fitzpatrick for 69 yds to the USM 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:07
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+7
20.5%
Jordan Houston run for 7 yds to the USM 5Similar
Q1 12:52
2ND & 3
OPP 5
0
20.6%
Braylon Braxton pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:46
3RD & 3
OPP 5
0
20.7%
Braylon Braxton pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:40
4TH & 3
OPP 5
+23
20.7%
Nathan Totten 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 3DOWNS
7 plays · 28 yds · 2:2621% → 22%
Q1 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
20.7%
Kenyon Clay run for 1 yd to the USM 26Similar
Q1 12:11
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+7
20.9%
Ethan Crawford pass complete to Larry Simmons for 7 yds to the USM 33Similar
Q1 11:40
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+14
21.2%
Kenyon Clay run for 14 yds to the USM 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
21.6%
Kenyon Clay run for 5 yds to the MRSH 48Similar
Q1 10:50
2ND & 5
OPP 48
0
21.8%
Ethan Crawford pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:48
3RD & 5
OPP 48
+1
21.7%
Rodrigues Clark run for 1 yd to the MRSH 47Similar
Q1 10:14
4TH & 4
OPP 47
0
21.8%
Ethan Crawford pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 4MISSED FG
11 plays · 38 yds · 4:0678% → 77%
Q1 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-5
21.6%
Ethan Payne run for a loss of 5 yards to the MRSH 42Similar
Q1 9:33
2ND & 15
OWN 42
+10
22.1%
Ethan Payne run for 10 yds to the USM 48Similar
Q1 9:21
3RD & 5
OPP 48
+16
22.1%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Toby Payne for 16 yds to the USM 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:56
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
22.2%
Ethan Payne run for 4 yds to the USM 28Similar
Q1 8:45
2ND & 6
OPP 28
+16
22.2%
Ethan Payne run for 16 yds to the USM 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:14
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-5
22.1%
Marshall Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the USM 17Similar
Q1 8:04
1ST & 15
OPP 17
+3
22.3%
Jordan Houston run for 3 yds to the USM 14Similar
Q1 7:28
2ND & 12
OPP 14
+4
22.4%
Braylon Braxton run for 4 yds to the USM 10Similar
Q1 6:49
3RD & 8
OPP 10
-5
22.7%
Braylon Braxton sacked by Brodarius Lewis for a loss of 5 yards to the USM 15Similar
Q1 6:04
4TH & 13
OPP 15
+32
23.5%
Nathan Totten 32 Yard Field Goal MissedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 5INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q1 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-12
22.3%
Ethan Crawford pass intercepted Landyn Watson return for 12 yds to the USM 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 6DOWNS
4 plays · 7 yds · 2:0077% → 76%
Q1 5:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
22.6%
Ethan Payne run for no gain to the USM 9Similar
Q1 5:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
22.8%
Jordan Houston run for 6 yds to the USM 3Similar
Q1 4:38
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
23.3%
Ethan Payne run for 1 yd to the USM 2Similar
Q1 3:55
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
0
23.9%
Braylon Braxton pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:1823% → 23%
Q1 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 2
-1
22.9%
Ethan Crawford run for a loss of 1 yard to the USM 1Similar
Q1 3:13
2ND & 11
OWN 1
+4
23.0%
Ethan Crawford pass complete to Chandler Pittman for 4 yds to the USM 5Similar
Q1 2:36
3RD & 7
OWN 5
0
22.7%
Ethan Crawford pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:30
4TH & 7
OWN 5
0
22.7%
Bryce Lofton punt for 43 yds, downed at the USM 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 8TD
9 plays · 48 yds · 3:3976% → 79%
Q1 2:22
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
23.8%
A.J. Turner run for 1 yd to the USM 47Similar
Q1 1:49
2ND & 9
OPP 47
-10
24.1%
(01:49) TURNER, A.J. rush to the right for a gain of 10 yards to the USM37 (MCNEAL, Ques), out of bounds, clock 01:43. PENALTY MU Holding on CHESTER, Carl enforced 10 yards from the USM47 to the MU43 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 1:28
2ND & 19
OWN 43
+8
24.9%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Chuck Montgomery for 8 yds to the USM 49Similar
Q1 1:04
3RD & 11
OPP 49
+5
24.8%
(01:04) BRAXTON, Braylon pass deep to the left incomplete intended for FITZPATRICK, Christian thrown to the USM20, clock 00:59. PENALTY USM Offsides on JOHNSON, Ryan enforced 5 yards from the USM49 to the USM44 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 1:00
3RD & 6
OPP 44
+14
24.4%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Chuck Montgomery for 14 yds to the USM 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
24.1%
Jordan Houston run for 2 yds to the USM 28Similar
Q2 14:58
2ND & 8
OPP 28
+21
23.7%
A.J. Turner run for 21 yds to the USM 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
23.9%
A.J. Turner run for 5 yds to the USM 2Similar
Q2 13:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
20.7%
Braylon Braxton run for 2 yds for a TD (Nathan Totten KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 9FG
11 plays · 41 yds · 3:4120% → 24%
Q2 13:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
20.0%
Southern Miss Penalty, False Start (Larry Simmons) to the USM 20Similar
Q2 13:43
1ST & 15
OWN 20
-1
19.9%
Ethan Crawford pass complete to Rodrigues Clark for a loss of 1 yard to the USM 19Similar
Q2 13:05
2ND & 16
OWN 19
+20
19.8%
Rodrigues Clark run for 20 yds to the USM 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-10
20.5%
(12:51) CLARK, Rodrigues rush to the right for a gain of 5 yards to the USM44 (GREEN-MCKNIGHT, Jadarius), clock 12:45. PENALTY USM Holding on WELCH, Tanner enforced 10 yards from the USM39 to the USM29 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 12:35
1ST & 20
OWN 29
0
19.9%
Ethan Crawford pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:30
2ND & 20
OWN 29
+35
19.7%
Ethan Crawford pass complete to Tiaquelin Mims for 35 yds to the MRSH 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:04
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-3
21.0%
Ethan Crawford sacked by Chris Thomas Jr. for a loss of 3 yards to the MRSH 39Similar
Q2 11:34
2ND & 13
OPP 39
+1
20.3%
Rodrigues Clark run for 1 yd to the MRSH 38Similar
Q2 11:00
3RD & 12
OPP 38
-5
20.1%
Southern Miss Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MRSH 43Similar
Q2 10:48
3RD & 17
OPP 43
+9
19.9%
Rodrigues Clark run for 9 yds to the MRSH 34Similar
Q2 10:02
4TH & 8
OPP 34
+51
24.3%
Connor Gibbs 51 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 10TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 3:1875% → 87%
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
24.7%
Braylon Braxton run for a loss of 6 yards to the MRSH 19Similar
Q2 9:18
2ND & 16
OWN 19
+5
25.2%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to A.J. Turner for 5 yds to the MRSH 24Similar
Q2 8:32
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+15
27.6%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Bralon Brown for 15 yds to the MRSH 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
24.8%
Jordan Houston run for 1 yd to the MRSH 40Similar
Q2 7:39
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+7
25.0%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Tychaun Chapman for 7 yds to the MRSH 47Similar
Q2 7:17
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+17
25.3%
Braylon Braxton run for 17 yds to the USM 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:42
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+36
13.3%
Ethan Payne run for 36 yds for a TD (Nathan Totten KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:1413% → 12%
Q2 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
13.2%
Ethan Crawford run for 9 yds to the USM 34Similar
Q2 6:17
2ND & 1
OWN 34
-4
12.8%
Kenyon Clay run for a loss of 4 yards to the USM 30Similar
Q2 5:39
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
12.3%
Ethan Crawford pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:29
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
12.1%
Bryce Lofton punt for 54 yds , Jacobie Henderson returns for no gain to the MRSH 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:3686% → 86%
Q2 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
14.1%
Jordan Houston run for 4 yds to the MRSH 20Similar
Q2 5:01
2ND & 6
OWN 20
+1
14.1%
Braylon Braxton run for 1 yd to the MRSH 21Similar
Q2 4:19
3RD & 5
OWN 21
+3
14.2%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Carl Chester for 3 yds to the MRSH 24Similar
Q2 3:46
4TH & 2
OWN 24
0
14.1%
Alec Clark punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Tiaquelin Mims at the USM 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · -29 yds · 1:4112% → 12%
Q2 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-15
12.3%
(03:41) CRAWFORD, Ethan pass to the right complete for 0 yards to JESIOLOWSKI, Reed caught at the USM34 and advanced to the USM34 (ROBERTS, J.J.), clock 03:37. PENALTY USM Pass Interference on MIMS, Tiaquelin enforced 15 yards to the USM19 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 3:22
1ST & 25
OWN 19
+1
13.0%
Jalen Washington run for 1 yd to the USM 20Similar
Q2 2:45
2ND & 24
OWN 20
0
12.7%
Ethan Crawford pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:14
3RD & 24
OWN 20
-11
12.3%
Ethan Crawford sacked by Mike Green for a loss of 11 yards to the USM 9Similar
Q2 2:00
4TH & 35
OWN 9
-4
12.4%
Southern Miss Penalty, False Start (Yards) to the USM 5Similar
Q2 2:00
4TH & 39
OWN 5
0
12.4%
Bryce Lofton punt for 40 yds, downed at the USM 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 14INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q2 1:48
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-6
10.9%
Braylon Braxton pass intercepted Braxton Myers return for 6 yds to the USM 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 15DOWNS
7 plays · -1 yds · 1:3813% → 13%
Q2 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+14
12.5%
Rodrigues Clark run for 14 yds to the MRSH 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:22
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-9
12.6%
Ethan Crawford sacked by Mike Green for a loss of 9 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 1:12
2ND & 19
50
-6
12.1%
Larry Simmons run for a loss of 6 yards to the USM 44Similar
Q2 0:36
3RD & 25
OWN 44
+10
12.7%
Ethan Crawford run for 10 yds to the MRSH 46Similar
Q2 0:03
4TH & 15
OPP 46
-10
13.3%
Ethan Crawford sacked by Mike Green for a loss of 10 yards to the USM 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 16TD
4 plays · 73 yds · 1:2484% → 93%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+11
15.6%
Braylon Braxton run for 11 yds to the MRSH 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:28
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
14.8%
Braylon Braxton run for 6 yds to the MRSH 44Similar
Q3 14:12
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+42
14.6%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Carl Chester for 42 yds to the USM 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:29
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
6.7%
Tychaun Chapman run for 14 yds for a TD (Nathan Totten KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 1:1210% → 10%
Q3 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
10.2%
Ethan Crawford pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:25
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
10.1%
(13:25) CLAY, Kenyon rush to the left for a gain of 28 yards to the MU47, out of bounds, clock 13:17. PENALTY Before the snap, USM Illegal Shift enforced 5 yards from the USM25 to the USM20. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 13:00
2ND & 15
OWN 20
-3
9.9%
Ethan Crawford sacked by Jadarius Green-McKnight for a loss of 3 yards to the USM 17Similar
Q3 12:21
3RD & 18
OWN 17
0
9.6%
Ethan Crawford pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:17
4TH & 18
OWN 17
0
9.5%
Bryce Lofton punt for 39 yds , Chuck Montgomery returns for no gain to the USM 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 18TD
4 plays · 41 yds · 1:2394% → 98%
Q3 12:08
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
5.8%
Jordan Houston run for 1 yd to the USM 40Similar
Q3 12:08
2ND & 9
OPP 40
0
5.8%
Braylon Braxton pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:08
3RD & 9
OPP 40
+22
5.9%
Braylon Braxton run for 22 yds to the USM 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
2.2%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Toby Payne for 18 yds for a TD (Nathan Totten KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 19INT
3 plays · 1 yds · 1:021% → 1%
Q3 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
1.3%
Jalen Washington run for no gain to the USM 25Similar
Q3 10:12
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
1.1%
Ethan Crawford run for 1 yd to the USM 26Similar
Q3 9:40
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+7
1.0%
Ethan Crawford pass intercepted Braydin Ward return for a loss of 7 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 20FG
15 plays · 41 yds · 6:1298% → 99%
Q3 9:31
1ST & 10
50
+1
2.0%
Ethan Payne run for 1 yd to the USM 49Similar
Q3 9:14
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+7
2.0%
Jordan Houston run for 7 yds to the USM 42Similar
Q3 8:46
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+1
1.7%
Braylon Braxton run for 1 yd to the USM 41Similar
Q3 8:04
4TH & 1
OPP 41
+3
1.8%
Ethan Payne run for 3 yds to the USM 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:39
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
1.7%
Jordan Houston run for 3 yds to the USM 35Similar
Q3 7:06
2ND & 7
OPP 35
-3
1.6%
Braylon Braxton run for a loss of 3 yards to the USM 38Similar
Q3 6:20
3RD & 10
OPP 38
+6
1.6%
Jordan Houston run for 6 yds to the USM 32Similar
Q3 5:35
4TH & 4
OPP 32
+9
1.8%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Christian Fitzpatrick for 9 yds to the USM 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:09
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-3
1.3%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Ethan Payne for a loss of 3 yards to the USM 26Similar
Q3 4:48
2ND & 13
OPP 26
+15
1.3%
Ethan Payne run for 15 yds to the USM 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
1.2%
Braylon Braxton pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:12
2ND & 10
OPP 11
0
1.2%
Marshall Penalty, Illegal Shift (Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 4:02
3RD & 13
OPP 14
+5
1.2%
Ethan Payne run for 5 yds to the USM 9Similar
Q3 3:19
4TH & 8
OPP 9
+27
1.4%
Nathan Totten 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 21FUMBLE
1 play · 12 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
0.5%
Rodrigues Clark run for 12 yds to the USM 37 Rodrigues Clark fumbled, recovered by MRSH Jaden Yates J. Yates return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 22MISSED FG
9 plays · 12 yds · 3:0999% → 99%
Q3 3:07
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
0.8%
Jordan Houston run for no gain to the USM 37Similar
Q3 2:40
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+13
0.8%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Bryan Robinson for 13 yds to the USM 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:06
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+12
0.7%
Braylon Braxton run for 12 yds to the USM 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:43
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-5
0.7%
(01:43) HOUSTON, Jordan rush up the middle for a gain of 6 yards to the USM6 (MCNEAL, Ques;MOORE, Khalid), clock 01:37. PENALTY Before the snap, MU Illegal Shift enforced 5 yards from the USM12 to the USM17. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 1:26
1ST & 15
OPP 17
-15
0.6%
(01:26) BRAXTON, Braylon pass deep to the left complete for 17 yards to BROWN, Bralon caught at the USM0 and advanced to the USM0; QB hurried by JOHNSON, Ryan, TOUCHDOWN MU, score nullified by penalty, clock 01:21 (Play was confirmed after review). PENALTY MU Pass Interference on BROWN, Bralon enforced 15 yards to the USM32 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 1:21
1ST & 30
OPP 32
+4
0.6%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Jordan Houston for 4 yds Jordan Houston fumbled, recovered by MRSH Bralon Brown B. Brown return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q3 0:34
2ND & 26
OPP 28
0
0.6%
Braylon Braxton pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:32
3RD & 26
OPP 28
+3
0.6%
Ethan Payne run for 3 yds to the USM 25Similar
Q4 14:58
4TH & 23
OPP 25
+43
0.7%
Nathan Totten 43 Yard Field Goal MissedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 23PUNT
8 plays · 5 yds · 2:410% → 0%
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
0.3%
Kenyon Clay run for 2 yds to the USM 27Similar
Q4 14:20
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+13
0.2%
Kenyon Clay run for 13 yds to the USM 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-5
0.3%
(13:46) CLAY, Kenyon rush to the right for a gain of 11 yards to the MU49, out of bounds, clock 13:43. PENALTY Before the snap, USM Illegal Motion on HEATH, Kyirin enforced 5 yards from the USM40 to the USM35. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 13:31
1ST & 15
OWN 35
-4
0.2%
Ethan Crawford run for a loss of 4 yards to the USM 31Similar
Q4 12:56
2ND & 19
OWN 31
-1
0.2%
Jalen Washington run for a loss of 1 yard to the USM 30Similar
Q4 12:19
3RD & 20
OWN 30
0
0.2%
Ethan Crawford pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:14
4TH & 20
OWN 30
0
0.2%
Bryce Lofton punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Chuck Montgomery at the MRSH 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 24FG
9 plays · 63 yds · 3:40100% → 100%
Q4 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+15
0.4%
Ethan Payne run for 15 yds to the MRSH 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
0.4%
Stone Earle pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:30
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+3
0.3%
Moses Gray run for 3 yds to the MRSH 47Similar
Q4 11:01
3RD & 7
OWN 47
+20
0.3%
Stone Earle pass complete to Bryan Robinson for 20 yds to the USM 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:28
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+19
0.3%
Stone Earle pass complete to Bryan Robinson for 19 yds to the USM 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:47
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
0.2%
Moses Gray run for no gain to the USM 14Similar
Q4 9:11
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+6
0.2%
Moses Gray run for 6 yds to the USM 8Similar
Q4 8:34
3RD & 4
OPP 8
0
0.2%
Stone Earle pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:26
4TH & 4
OPP 8
+26
0.2%
Nathan Totten 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 25INT
12 plays · 49 yds · 5:110% → 0%
Q4 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
0.1%
JQ Gray run for 6 yds to the USM 31Similar
Q4 7:48
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
0.1%
JQ Gray run for no gain to the USM 31Similar
Q4 7:21
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+3
0.1%
JQ Gray run for 3 yds to the USM 34Similar
Q4 6:51
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+5
0.1%
JQ Gray run for 5 yds to the USM 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
0.1%
Jalen Washington run for 7 yds to the USM 46Similar
Q4 5:43
2ND & 3
OWN 46
+25
0.0%
Ethan Crawford pass complete to Ray Daly Jr. for 25 yds to the MRSH 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:09
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+6
0.1%
Jalen Washington run for 6 yds to the MRSH 23Similar
Q4 4:41
2ND & 4
OPP 23
-10
0.0%
(04:41) WASHINGTON, Jalen rush up the middle for a gain of 9 yards to the MU14 (MCGHEE, AG), clock 04:35. PENALTY USM Holding on JESIOLOWSKI, Reed enforced 10 yards from the MU23 to the MU33 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 4:28
2ND & 14
OPP 33
+10
0.1%
Jalen Washington run for 10 yds to the MRSH 23Similar
Q4 3:54
3RD & 4
OPP 23
-3
0.0%
JQ Gray run for a loss of 3 yards to the MRSH 26Similar
Q4 3:15
4TH & 7
OPP 26
0
0.0%
Ethan Crawford pass intercepted, touchback. TaShawn Jeter return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 26FUMBLE
3 plays · 14 yds · 1:09100% → 100%
Q4 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
0.1%
Moses Gray run for 3 yds to the MRSH 23Similar
Q4 2:30
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+6
0.1%
Cole Pennington run for 6 yds to the MRSH 29Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+5
0.1%
Moses Gray run for 5 yds to the MRSH 34 fumbled, recovered by USM Joseph Harper J. Harper return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 27END OF GAME
4 plays · 14 yds · 1:320% → 0%
Q4 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
0.0%
Jalen Washington run for 5 yds to the MRSH 29Similar
Q4 1:20
2ND & 5
OPP 29
+2
0.0%
Jalen Washington run for 2 yds to the MRSH 27Similar
Q4 0:56
3RD & 3
OPP 27
-2
0.0%
Jalen Washington run for a loss of 2 yards to the MRSH 29Similar
Q4 0:15
4TH & 5
OPP 29
+9
0.0%
Jalen Washington run for 9 yds to the MRSH 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 6:42
Ethan Payne run for 36 yds for a TD (Nathan Totten KICK)
-12
TD · Q3 13:29
Tychaun Chapman run for 14 yds for a TD (Nathan Totten KICK)
-7.8
FG · Q2 10:02
Connor Gibbs 51 yd FG GOOD
+4.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com