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TXST

Texas State 38 at UL Monroe 17

ULM
2024 · Week 11 · Nov 9, 2024 · Malone Stadium
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Win probability · ULM
modelULM aheadTXST aheadconfidence bandkey playULM scoreTXST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 12:06 · Lars Rau punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Davon Wells at the ULM 11
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+54.0+27.00−27.0−54.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 128Home team on offense−33.1Pregame prior−5.7Score differential−17.5Garbage-time factor−12.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−4.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−5.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 1:55: Jordan McCloud pass complete to Kole Wilson for 41 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK) — TXST win probability +4.6 pts (now 79%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 12:04: Jordan McCloud run for 6 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK) — TXST win probability +5.4 pts (now 85%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:12: Brad Jackson run for 2 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK) — TXST win probability +2.9 pts (now 96%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 7:48: Ahmad Hardy run for 1 yd for a TD (Max Larson KICK) — ULM win probability +8.8 pts (now 12%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 2:38: Ahmad Hardy run for 1 yd for a TD (Max Larson KICK) — ULM win probability +10.4 pts (now 15%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ULM made the numbers' call on 8 of 9TXST made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 12:56TXST 4th & 10 at TXST 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.1%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:29ULM 4th & 5 at ULM 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.4%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:39ULM 4th & 10 at ULM 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.5%−0.4
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:00TXST 4th & 3 at TXST 44, up 7
    Close callPunted · 71.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.3%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:10ULM 4th & 10 at ULM 1, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.4%−1.4
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.8%
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:00ULM 4th & 3 at ULM 32, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 25.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.4%−0.2
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    25.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:09TXST 4th & 13 at TXST 35, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.6%−1.1
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:15ULM 4th & 8 at ULM 43, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.4%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.7%
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:55ULM 4th & 8 at TXST 34, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.0%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    3.0%−<0.1
    47% to make
    Punt
    2.9%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:34TXST 4th & 15 at TXST 20, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.3%−1.4
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.7%
    average punt
  11. Q3 0:51TXST 4th & 7 at TXST 46, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.5%−0.5
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.0%
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:22ULM 4th & 22 at ULM 22, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.4%−2.3
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.8%
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:06TXST 4th & 6 at ULM 48, up 14
    Close callPunted · 91.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.8%−0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:28TXST 4th & 5 at ULM 15, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 93.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.8%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.0%
    83% to make
    Punt
    88.2%−4.7
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:02ULM 4th & 8 at TXST 13, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 5.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.6%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    4.9%
    85% to make
    Punt
    2.9%−2.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:42ULM 4th & 3 at ULM 32, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.6%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ULM made the numbers' call on 2 of 2TXST made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 7:25TXST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:55TXST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:04TXST Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:12TXST Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 7:48ULM Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 2:38ULM Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 0:56TXST Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.2%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TXSTDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 10 yds · 1:5976% → 75%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
24.0%
Ismail Mahdi run for 3 yds to the TXST 28Similar
Q1 14:28
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+7
24.2%
Ismail Mahdi run for 7 yds to the TXST 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
24.3%
Ismail Mahdi run for no gain to the TXST 35Similar
Q1 13:43
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
24.6%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:39
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
24.7%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Joey Hobert for no gain to the TXST 35Similar
Q1 12:56
4TH & 10
OWN 35
0
25.1%
Lars Rau punt for 32 yds, downed at the ULM 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:1425% → 26%
Q1 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
25.1%
Ahmad Hardy run for 5 yds to the ULM 38Similar
Q1 12:14
2ND & 5
OWN 38
0
25.5%
Ahmad Hardy run for no gain to the ULM 38Similar
Q1 11:32
3RD & 5
OWN 38
0
25.8%
Aidan Armenta pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:29
4TH & 5
OWN 38
0
25.6%
Makenzie Ryan punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Joey Hobert at the TXST 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 3TD
9 plays · 76 yds · 3:5774% → 76%
Q1 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-2
25.7%
Torrance Burgess Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the TXST 22Similar
Q1 10:50
2ND & 12
OWN 22
+9
26.0%
Torrance Burgess Jr. run for 9 yds to the TXST 31Similar
Q1 10:23
3RD & 3
OWN 31
+4
26.2%
Brad Jackson run for 4 yds to the TXST 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
26.2%
Torrance Burgess Jr. run for no gain to the TXST 35Similar
Q1 9:37
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-5
26.5%
Ismail Mahdi run for 10 yds to the TXST 45 Texas State Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the TXST 30Similar
Q1 9:19
2ND & 15
OWN 30
+17
26.7%
Ismail Mahdi run for 17 yds to the TXST 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
26.5%
Deion Hankins run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 8:18
2ND & 7
50
+47
26.5%
Deion Hankins run for 47 yds to the ULM 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
24.3%
Deion Hankins run for 3 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:4625% → 25%
Q1 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
24.9%
Ahmad Hardy run for 2 yds to the ULM 27Similar
Q1 6:48
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
25.0%
run for no gain to the ULM 27 Aidan Armenta fumbled, recovered by ULM return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q1 5:50
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-2
24.7%
Aidan Armenta pass complete to Julian Nixon for a loss of 2 yards to the ULM 25Similar
Q1 5:39
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
24.6%
Makenzie Ryan punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Joey Hobert at the TXST 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:3275% → 75%
Q1 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
24.8%
Brad Jackson run for 4 yds to the TXST 41Similar
Q1 5:11
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+2
24.7%
Deion Hankins run for 2 yds to the TXST 43Similar
Q1 4:34
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+1
24.8%
Brad Jackson run for 1 yd to the TXST 44Similar
Q1 4:00
4TH & 3
OWN 44
0
25.1%
Lars Rau punt for 55 yds, downed at the ULM 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 1:3825% → 26%
Q1 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
24.5%
James Jones run for no gain to the ULM 1Similar
Q1 3:12
2ND & 10
OWN 1
0
24.5%
Ahmad Hardy run for no gain to the ULM 1Similar
Q1 2:42
3RD & 10
OWN 1
0
24.5%
UL Monroe Penalty, False Start (Yards) to the ULM 1Similar
Q1 2:42
3RD & 10
OWN 1
0
24.5%
Ahmad Hardy run for no gain to the ULM 1Similar
Q1 2:10
4TH & 10
OWN 1
0
25.5%
Makenzie Ryan punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Joey Hobert at the ULM 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 7TD
1 play · 41 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
Q1 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+41
20.9%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Kole Wilson for 41 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 8DOWNS
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:5420% → 20%
Q1 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
19.7%
Aidan Armenta sacked by Dominique Ratcliff for a loss of 2 yards to the ULM 23Similar
Q1 1:18
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+5
19.4%
Ahmad Hardy run for 5 yds to the ULM 28Similar
Q1 0:43
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+4
19.2%
Aidan Armenta pass complete to Jake Godfrey for 4 yds to the ULM 32Similar
Q1 0:00
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+1
19.0%
Hunter Herring run for 1 yd to the ULM 33Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-5
20.4%
Texas State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the ULM 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 9TD
6 plays · 33 yds · 2:5680% → 85%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 38
+14
20.5%
Ismail Mahdi run for 14 yds to the ULM 24Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 24
+9
20.3%
Deion Hankins run for 9 yds to the ULM 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
20.3%
Deion Hankins run for 2 yds to the ULM 13Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 13
+8
20.3%
Brad Jackson run for 8 yds to the ULM 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-1
20.3%
Brad Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the ULM 6Similar
Q2 12:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
14.9%
Jordan McCloud run for 6 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 10FUMBLE
7 plays · 37 yds · 2:4823% → 13%
Q2 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
23.2%
Aidan Armenta pass complete to Davon Wells for 10 yds to the ULM 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
22.1%
James Jones run for 2 yds to the ULM 37Similar
Q2 10:57
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+15
22.7%
(10:57) ARMENTA, Aidan pass deep up the middle incomplete intended for WELLS, Davon broken up by NOLAN, Ryan at the TXS47; QB hurried by LANDRY, Jo'Laison, clock 10:53. PENALTY TXS Roughing the Passer on LANDRY, Jo'Laison enforced 15 yards from the ULM37 to the TXS48 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 10:52
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-2
23.5%
Ahmad Hardy run for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 10:12
2ND & 12
50
-5
12.5%
UL Monroe Penalty, Delay Of Game (Aidan Armenta) to the ULM 45Similar
Q2 9:55
2ND & 17
OWN 45
+17
12.3%
Aidan Armenta pass complete to Nate Sullivan Jr. for 17 yds to the TXST 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
12.5%
Ahmad Hardy run for no gain to the TXST 38 Ahmad Hardy fumbled, recovered by TXST Jordan Polk J. Polk return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:5088% → 88%
Q2 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-3
12.2%
Ismail Mahdi run for a loss of 3 yards to the TXST 35Similar
Q2 8:21
2ND & 13
OWN 35
+6
12.4%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Ismail Mahdi for 6 yds to the TXST 41Similar
Q2 7:45
3RD & 7
OWN 41
-6
12.7%
Jordan McCloud sacked by Jaylan Ware for a loss of 6 yards to the TXST 35Similar
Q2 7:09
4TH & 13
OWN 35
0
12.2%
Lars Rau punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Davon Wells at the ULM 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 2:4811% → 11%
Q2 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
10.6%
Davon Wells run for 7 yds to the ULM 37Similar
Q2 6:30
2ND & 3
OWN 37
+2
9.8%
Ahmad Hardy run for 2 yds to the ULM 39Similar
Q2 5:42
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+2
10.3%
Hunter Herring run for 2 yds to the ULM 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
11.7%
Aidan Armenta pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:02
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+2
11.4%
Ahmad Hardy run for 2 yds to the ULM 43Similar
Q2 4:19
3RD & 8
OWN 43
0
11.1%
Aidan Armenta pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:15
4TH & 8
OWN 43
0
10.9%
Makenzie Ryan punt for 40 yds , Joey Hobert returns for no gain to the TXST 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 13TD
15 plays · 83 yds · 3:5290% → 96%
Q2 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+6
10.4%
Brad Jackson run for 6 yds to the TXST 23Similar
Q2 3:47
2ND & 4
OWN 23
+4
10.3%
Deion Hankins run for 4 yds to the TXST 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
10.0%
Brad Jackson run for 2 yds to the TXST 29Similar
Q2 2:44
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+2
10.2%
Brad Jackson pass complete to Joey Hobert for 2 yds Joey Hobert fumbled, recovered by TXSTSimilar
Q2 2:25
3RD & 6
OWN 31
+9
10.4%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Joey Hobert for 9 yds to the TXST 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
8.2%
Brad Jackson run for no gain to the TXST 40Similar
Q2 1:52
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+18
8.2%
Brad Jackson run for 18 yds to the ULM 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
7.8%
Lincoln Pare run for 2 yds to the ULM 40Similar
Q2 1:17
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+9
7.5%
Brad Jackson pass complete to Kole Wilson for 9 yds to the ULM 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:03
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+14
6.8%
Brad Jackson run for 14 yds to the ULM 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:56
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
7.0%
Brad Jackson pass complete to Kole Wilson for 3 yds to the ULM 14Similar
Q2 0:49
2ND & 7
OPP 14
0
7.0%
Brad Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:45
3RD & 7
OPP 14
+12
7.2%
Brad Jackson run for 12 yds to the ULM 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
4.3%
Brad Jackson run for 2 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · 4 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q2 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
1.7%
James Jones run for 4 yds to the ULM 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 15TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 7:124% → 12%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
3.6%
Aidan Armenta pass complete to Davon Wells for 15 yds to the ULM 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:26
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+10
3.6%
Ahmad Hardy run for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:43
1ST & 10
50
+1
4.0%
Ahmad Hardy run for 1 yd to the TXST 49Similar
Q3 13:08
2ND & 9
OPP 49
-2
3.7%
Aidan Armenta pass complete to Jake Godfrey for a loss of 2 yards to the ULM 49Similar
Q3 12:34
3RD & 11
OWN 49
+15
3.4%
Aidan Armenta pass complete to Artis Cole for 15 yds to the TXST 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:01
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
3.5%
Ahmad Hardy run for 5 yds to the TXST 31Similar
Q3 11:27
2ND & 5
OPP 31
-9
3.3%
Aidan Armenta sacked by Brice Bass for a loss of 9 yards to the TXST 40Similar
Q3 10:42
3RD & 14
OPP 40
+6
3.0%
Aidan Armenta pass complete to Tyler Griffin for 6 yds to the TXST 34Similar
Q3 9:55
4TH & 8
OPP 34
+12
2.8%
Aidan Armenta pass complete to Wesley Campbell VI for 12 yds to the TXST 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
2.9%
Aidan Armenta pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:05
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+14
2.7%
Aidan Armenta pass complete to Julian Nixon for 14 yds to the TXST 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
3.3%
Ahmad Hardy run for 7 yds to the TXST 1 Ahmad Hardy fumbled, recovered by ULM Julian Nixon J. Nixon return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q3 7:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
12.1%
Ahmad Hardy run for 1 yd for a TD (Max Larson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 1:0995% → 96%
Q3 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
5.1%
Deion Hankins run for 3 yds to the TXST 28Similar
Q3 7:06
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
4.7%
Brad Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:01
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-10
4.8%
Texas State Penalty, Illegal Block (-10 Yards) to the TXST 20Similar
Q3 6:42
3RD & 15
OWN 20
0
4.2%
Brad Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:34
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
4.3%
Lars Rau punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Davon Wells at the ULM 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 17TD
9 plays · 63 yds · 3:497% → 15%
Q3 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
6.7%
James Jones run for 6 yds to the ULM 43Similar
Q3 5:51
2ND & 4
OWN 43
-3
5.2%
James Jones run for a loss of 3 yards to the ULM 40Similar
Q3 5:45
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+20
5.0%
James Jones run for 20 yds to the TXST 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:31
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+10
5.4%
Aidan Armenta pass complete to Nate Sullivan Jr. for 10 yds to the TXST 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:14
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
5.8%
James Jones run for 1 yd to the TXST 29Similar
Q3 4:35
2ND & 9
OPP 29
+12
5.2%
Aidan Armenta run for 12 yds to the TXST 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:03
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
5.2%
Ahmad Hardy run for 2 yds to the TXST 15Similar
Q3 3:24
2ND & 8
OPP 15
+14
4.5%
Ahmad Hardy run for 14 yds to the TXST 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
14.9%
Ahmad Hardy run for 1 yd for a TD (Max Larson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 1:4789% → 94%
Q3 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
10.7%
Brad Jackson run for 18 yds to the TXST 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-1
9.8%
Ismail Mahdi run for a loss of 1 yard to the TXST 42Similar
Q3 1:43
2ND & 11
OWN 42
+4
9.9%
Brad Jackson run for 4 yds to the TXST 46Similar
Q3 0:55
3RD & 7
OWN 46
0
8.9%
Brad Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:51
4TH & 7
OWN 46
0
9.7%
Lars Rau punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Davon Wells at the ULM 19Similar
Q3 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+15
6.1%
(00:45) ARMENTA, Aidan pass deep to the left incomplete intended for COLE, Artis thrown to the ULM45, clock 00:40. PENALTY TXS Pass Interference on EATON, Joshua enforced 15 yards to the ULM34 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:136% → 6%
Q3 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-3
6.2%
Darius Jackson run for a loss of 3 yards to the ULM 31Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 13
OWN 31
-4
6.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the ULM 27 fumbled, recovered by ULM James Jones J. Jones return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 17
OWN 27
-5
6.1%
Aidan Armenta sacked by Kalil Alexander and Terry Webb for a loss of 5 yards to the ULM 22Similar
Q4 14:22
4TH & 22
OWN 22
0
6.1%
Makenzie Ryan punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Joey Hobert at the TXST 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 2:1092% → 95%
Q4 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+13
7.9%
Deion Hankins run for 13 yds to the TXST 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
6.8%
Deion Hankins run for 1 yd to the TXST 49Similar
Q4 13:00
2ND & 9
OWN 49
0
6.4%
Brad Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:51
3RD & 9
OWN 49
+3
6.6%
Ismail Mahdi run for 3 yds to the ULM 48Similar
Q4 12:06
4TH & 6
OPP 48
0
5.2%
Lars Rau punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Davon Wells at the ULM 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 21INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
5.1%
Aidan Armenta pass intercepted Trez Moore return for no gain to the ULM 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 22FG
6 plays · 18 yds · 3:2796% → 96%
Q4 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+8
4.3%
Deion Hankins run for 8 yds to the ULM 25Similar
Q4 11:15
2ND & 2
OPP 25
+5
4.0%
Deion Hankins run for 5 yds to the ULM 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+8
3.8%
Deion Hankins run for 8 yds to the ULM 12Similar
Q4 9:53
2ND & 2
OPP 12
-1
3.5%
Deion Hankins run for a loss of 1 yard to the ULM 13Similar
Q4 9:14
3RD & 3
OPP 13
-2
3.4%
Deion Hankins run for a loss of 2 yards to the ULM 15Similar
Q4 8:28
4TH & 5
OPP 15
+32
3.7%
Mason Shipley 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 23FG
8 plays · 62 yds · 2:262% → 3%
Q4 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
2.1%
Aidan Armenta pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:21
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+12
2.0%
Aidan Armenta pass complete to Davon Wells for 12 yds to the ULM 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
2.0%
Aidan Armenta pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:42
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+48
2.0%
Ahmad Hardy run for 48 yds to the TXST 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:51
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
2.4%
Ahmad Hardy run for 2 yds to the TXST 13Similar
Q4 6:16
2ND & 8
OPP 13
0
2.2%
Aidan Armenta pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:13
3RD & 8
OPP 13
0
2.1%
Aidan Armenta pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:02
4TH & 8
OPP 13
+31
2.7%
Max Larson 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 24TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:0697% → 100%
Q4 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
3.2%
Deion Hankins run for 17 yds to the TXST 37 Deion Hankins fumbled, recovered by TXST Deion Hankins for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
2.9%
Lincoln Pare run for 8 yds to the TXST 45Similar
Q4 4:55
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+15
2.5%
Lincoln Pare run for 15 yds to the ULM 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:11
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
2.2%
Lincoln Pare run for 2 yds to the ULM 38Similar
Q4 3:28
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+2
1.6%
Lincoln Pare run for 2 yds to the ULM 36Similar
Q4 2:44
3RD & 6
OPP 36
+14
1.6%
Brad Jackson run for 14 yds to the ULM 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+7
1.0%
Brad Jackson run for 7 yds to the ULM 15Similar
Q4 1:18
2ND & 3
OPP 15
+3
1.1%
Lincoln Pare run for 3 yds to the ULM 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-1
1.0%
Lincoln Pare run for a loss of 1 yard to the ULM 13Similar
Q4 0:56
2ND & 11
OPP 13
+13
0.3%
Brad Jackson run for 13 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 25END OF GAME
6 plays · 33 yds · 0:520% → 0%
Q4 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
0.1%
Aidan Armenta pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:49
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
0.1%
Bennett Galloway run for 7 yds to the ULM 32Similar
Q4 0:45
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
0.1%
Aidan Armenta pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:42
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+5
0.1%
Bennett Galloway run for 5 yds to the ULM 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+13
0.1%
Bennett Galloway run for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:03
1ST & 10
50
+8
0.1%
Aidan Armenta pass complete to Wesley Campbell VI for 8 yds to the TXST 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 2:38
Ahmad Hardy run for 1 yd for a TD (Max Larson KICK)
+10.4
TD · Q3 7:48
Ahmad Hardy run for 1 yd for a TD (Max Larson KICK)
+8.8
TD · Q2 12:04
Jordan McCloud run for 6 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)
-5.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com