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CCU

Coastal Carolina 24 at Troy 38

TROY
2024 · Week 10 · Nov 2, 2024 · Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)
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Win probability · TROY
modelTROY aheadCCU aheadconfidence bandkey playTROY scoreCCU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 11:27 · Robert Cole punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Tray Taylor at the CCU 6
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+32.5+16.30−16.3−32.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 11Home team on offense+0.0Pregame prior−11.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0Score differential−0.1Garbage-time factor−0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 1:12: Ethan Vasko run for 11 yds for a TD (Kade Hensley KICK) — CCU win probability +11.7 pts (now 60%) (top driver: CCU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 10:42: Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Devonte Ross for 3 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK) — TROY win probability +11.5 pts (now 58%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:27: Matthew Caldwell run for 1 yd for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK) — TROY win probability +13.3 pts (now 86%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 9:22: Braydon Bennett run for 21 yds for a TD (Kade Hensley KICK) — CCU win probability +12.8 pts (now 33%) (top driver: CCU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 6:22: Damien Taylor run for 41 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK) — TROY win probability +17.5 pts (now 90%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TROY made the numbers' call on 6 of 6CCU made the numbers' call on 8 of 11
  1. Q1 11:27TROY 4th & 12 at TROY 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.9%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:47CCU 4th & 5 at TROY 44, tied
    Close callPunted · 57.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.6%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    57.3%−0.2
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    57.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:53CCU 4th & 12 at CCU 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.6%−0.8
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.4%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:23TROY 4th & 4 at TROY 33, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.7%−0.2
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:17CCU 4th & 8 at TROY 43, down 7
    Close callPunted · 42.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.7%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    41.8%−0.9
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    42.4%−0.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:09CCU 4th & 10 at CCU 25, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.1%−1.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.5%
    average punt
  7. Q3 9:43CCU 4th & 10 at TROY 11, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 8.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.6%−0.9
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    8.4%
    87% to make
    Punt
    2.9%−5.5
    average punt
  8. Q3 2:20CCU 4th & 22 at TROY 38, down 18
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.5 ptsWent for it · 8.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.5%−1.5
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    9.0%
    38% to make
    Punt
    8.9%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q4 14:56TROY 4th & 5 at CCU 37, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 84.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    85.0%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    84.0%−1.0
    40% to make
    Punt
    83.7%−1.2
    average punt
  10. Q4 14:56TROY 4th & 5 at CCU 37, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 84.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    85.0%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    84.0%−1.0
    40% to make
    Punt
    83.7%−1.2
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:56CCU 4th & 1 at TROY 43, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    16.0%−3.6
    28% to make
    Punt
    16.8%−2.8
    average punt
  12. Q4 9:21CCU 4th & 6 at TROY 37, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    11.4%−0.6
    40% to make
    Punt
    11.0%−1.0
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:21CCU 4th & 6 at TROY 37, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    11.4%−0.6
    40% to make
    Punt
    11.0%−1.0
    average punt
  14. Q4 2:42TROY 4th & 9 at CCU 13, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.5%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.7%
    85% to make
    Punt
    92.9%−1.8
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:19CCU 4th & 10 at CCU 25, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.0%
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.7%−0.3
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:19CCU 4th & 10 at CCU 25, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.0%
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.7%−0.3
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:13TROY 4th & 4 at CCU 28, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    97.8%−<0.1
    60% to make
    Punt
    96.7%−1.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TROY made the numbers' call on 5 of 5CCU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 5:02TROY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:12CCU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:42TROY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 4:57TROY Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:27TROY Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 9:22CCU Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 6:22TROY Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 2:20CCU Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TROYDrive 1PUNT
11 plays · 22 yds · 3:3338% → 39%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
38.2%
Damien Taylor run for 3 yds to the TROY 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+7
38.2%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Jackson Worley for 7 yds to the TROY 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
38.2%
Damien Taylor run for 1 yd to the TROY 36Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+13
38.2%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Devonte Ross for 13 yds to the TROY 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-10
38.2%
Troy Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the TROY 41Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 18
OWN 41
+6
38.2%
Damien Taylor run for 6 yds to the TROY 47Similar
Q1 12:00
2ND & 12
OWN 47
0
39.4%
Matthew Caldwell pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:00
3RD & 12
OWN 47
0
39.2%
Matthew Caldwell pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:27
4TH & 12
OWN 47
0
39.3%
Robert Cole punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Tray Taylor at the CCU 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 50 yds · 2:4061% → 60%
Q1 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+33
39.5%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Bryson Graves for 33 yds to the CCU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
39.4%
Braydon Bennett run for 2 yds to the CCU 41Similar
Q1 11:27
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+10
39.4%
Braydon Bennett run for 10 yds to the TROY 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:27
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+8
39.2%
Ethan Vasko run for 8 yds to the TROY 41Similar
Q1 11:27
2ND & 2
OPP 41
0
39.2%
Ethan Vasko pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:27
3RD & 2
OPP 41
+3
39.2%
Ethan Vasko run for 3 yds to the TROY 44Similar
Q1 8:47
4TH & 5
OPP 44
0
40.3%
Ethan Vasko punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 3TD
9 plays · 99 yds · 3:4540% → 50%
Q1 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+6
40.1%
Damien Taylor run for 6 yds to the TROY 7Similar
Q1 8:47
2ND & 4
OWN 7
+7
40.3%
Damien Taylor run for 7 yds to the TROY 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+21
40.4%
Damien Taylor run for 21 yds to the TROY 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
40.5%
Damien Taylor run for 11 yds to the TROY 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
41.1%
Gerald Green run for 2 yds to the TROY 48Similar
Q1 8:47
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+51
41.1%
Gerald Green run for 51 yds to the CCU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
49.7%
Gerald Green run for 1 yd for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 2:0955% → 52%
Q1 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
45.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun Vasko,Ethan pass complete short left to Tucker,Jameson caught at CCU30, for 5 yards to the CCU30, End Of Play PENALTY CCU Holding (Walton,Anthony) 10 yards from CCU25 to CCU15. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:02
1ST & 20
OWN 15
-6
45.5%
Ethan Vasko sacked by Damaje Yancey for a loss of 6 yards to the CCU 9Similar
Q1 5:02
2ND & 26
OWN 9
+4
45.7%
Braydon Bennett run for 4 yds to the CCU 13Similar
Q1 5:02
3RD & 22
OWN 13
+10
46.0%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Braydon Bennett for 10 yds to the CCU 23Similar
Q1 2:53
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
47.8%
Emile Sebafundi punt for 48 yds , Devonte Ross returns for no gain to the TROY 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:3051% → 51%
Q1 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
51.0%
Gerald Green run for 3 yds to the TROY 30Similar
Q1 2:53
2ND & 7
OWN 30
0
50.9%
Matthew Caldwell pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:53
3RD & 7
OWN 30
+3
50.4%
Gerald Green run for 3 yds to the TROY 33Similar
Q1 1:23
4TH & 4
OWN 33
0
51.3%
Evan Crenshaw punt blocked by Jameson Tucker, punt out-of-bounds at the TROY 11 blocked by Jameson TuckerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 6TD
1 play · 11 yds · 0:0060% → 60%
Q1 1:12
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
39.6%
Ethan Vasko run for 11 yds for a TD (Kade Hensley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 7TD
14 plays · 82 yds · 5:2444% → 58%
Q1 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
43.5%
Damien Taylor run for 4 yds to the TROY 22Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 6
OWN 22
+12
43.9%
Damien Taylor run for 12 yds to the TROY 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+7
44.1%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Brody Dalton for 7 yds to the TROY 41Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 41
+6
45.3%
Damien Taylor run for 6 yds to the TROY 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
45.4%
Damien Taylor run for 1 yd to the TROY 48Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+20
45.2%
Damien Taylor run for 20 yds to the CCU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+8
46.0%
Gerald Green run for 8 yds to the CCU 24Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 24
+17
46.0%
Gerald Green run for 17 yds to the CCU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
46.0%
Gerald Green run for 1 yd to the CCU 6Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
46.0%
Damien Taylor run for 3 yds to the CCU 3Similar
Q2 10:42
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
57.7%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Devonte Ross for 3 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 8PUNT
11 plays · 32 yds · 4:2548% → 42%
Q2 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
52.4%
Ethan Vasko run for no gain to the CCU 25Similar
Q2 10:42
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
52.7%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Cane Berrong for 6 yds to the CCU 31Similar
Q2 10:42
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+5
52.6%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Cameron Wright for 5 yds to the CCU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
51.9%
Ethan Vasko pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:42
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+4
52.2%
Braydon Bennett run for 4 yds to the CCU 40Similar
Q2 10:42
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+15
51.8%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Bryson Graves for 15 yds to the TROY 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:42
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
50.4%
Braydon Bennett run for 3 yds to the TROY 42Similar
Q2 10:42
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+1
50.5%
Braydon Bennett run for 1 yd to the TROY 43Similar
Q2 10:42
3RD & 8
OPP 43
0
50.8%
Ethan Vasko pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:17
4TH & 8
OPP 43
0
58.1%
Emile Sebafundi punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Peyton Higgins at the TROY 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 9TD
4 plays · 89 yds · 1:2063% → 73%
Q2 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+3
62.9%
Gerald Green run for 3 yds to the TROY 14Similar
Q2 6:17
2ND & 7
OWN 14
+3
62.6%
Gerald Green run for 3 yds to the TROY 17Similar
Q2 4:57
3RD & 4
OWN 17
+83
72.6%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Gerald Green for 83 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:4831% → 29%
Q2 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
68.8%
Simeon Price run for no gain to the CCU 25Similar
Q2 4:57
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
69.1%
Ethan Vasko pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:57
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
69.4%
Ethan Vasko pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:09
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
70.7%
Emile Sebafundi punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Devonte Ross at the TROY 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 11TD
10 plays · 64 yds · 3:4274% → 86%
Q2 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
74.0%
Matthew Caldwell pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:09
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+8
73.6%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Devonte Ross for 8 yds to the TROY 44Similar
Q2 4:09
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+3
73.5%
Damien Taylor run for 3 yds to the TROY 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
74.7%
Devonte Ross run for 9 yds to the CCU 44Similar
Q2 4:09
2ND & 1
OPP 44
+2
74.3%
Damien Taylor run for 2 yds to the CCU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+8
78.0%
Roman Mothershed run for 8 yds to the CCU 34Similar
Q2 1:55
2ND & 2
OPP 34
+29
77.6%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Roman Mothershed for 29 yds to the CCU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
72.4%
Damien Taylor run for 4 yds to the CCU 1Similar
Q2 0:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
85.7%
Matthew Caldwell run for 1 yd for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
86.9%
Christian Washington run for 3 yds to the CCU 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 13FG
14 plays · 73 yds · 5:1214% → 16%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+7
86.3%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Bryson Graves for 7 yds to the CCU 23Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 3
OWN 23
+11
85.7%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Jameson Tucker for 11 yds to the CCU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
85.7%
Ethan Vasko run for 5 yds to the CCU 39Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+4
85.4%
Ethan Vasko run for 4 yds to the CCU 43Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 1
OWN 43
+2
85.3%
Ethan Vasko run for 2 yds to the CCU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
85.5%
Braydon Bennett run for 8 yds to the TROY 47Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 2
OPP 47
+5
84.7%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Bryson Graves for 5 yds to the TROY 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+31
85.1%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Jameson Tucker for 31 yds to the TROY 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
84.0%
Ethan Vasko pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 10
OPP 11
0
84.0%
Ethan Vasko pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 10
OPP 11
0
85.3%
Ethan Vasko sacked for 0 yards to the TROY 11Similar
Q3 9:43
4TH & 10
OPP 11
+28
84.5%
Kade Hensley 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 14TD
3 plays · 21 yds · 0:1320% → 33%
Q3 9:35
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
79.9%
Ethan Vasko pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:22
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+21
67.1%
Braydon Bennett run for 21 yds for a TD (Kade Hensley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 15TD
9 plays · 70 yds · 3:0072% → 90%
Q3 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
72.1%
Gerald Green run for 4 yds to the TROY 29Similar
Q3 9:22
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+2
72.2%
Matthew Caldwell run for 2 yds to the TROY 31Similar
Q3 9:22
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+8
71.5%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Devonte Ross for 8 yds to the TROY 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
73.8%
Damien Taylor run for 1 yd to the TROY 40Similar
Q3 9:22
2ND & 9
OWN 40
0
73.6%
Matthew Caldwell pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:22
3RD & 9
OWN 40
+10
72.2%
Coastal Carolina Penalty, Illegal Use Of Hands (10 Yards) to the CCU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:22
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+41
89.7%
Damien Taylor run for 41 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 16TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 4:0213% → 22%
Q3 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
86.9%
Braydon Bennett run for 7 yds to the CCU 32Similar
Q3 6:22
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+11
85.9%
Braydon Bennett run for 11 yds to the CCU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
85.8%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Kendall Karr for 5 yds to the CCU 48Similar
Q3 6:22
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+7
85.5%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Jameson Tucker for 7 yds to the TROY 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:22
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
85.0%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Braydon Bennett for 1 yd to the TROY 44Similar
Q3 6:22
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+3
85.0%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Braydon Bennett for 3 yds to the TROY 41Similar
Q3 6:22
3RD & 6
OPP 41
0
85.2%
Ethan Vasko pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:01
4TH & 6
OPP 41
+15
88.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun Vasko,Ethan pass incomplete deep right to Graves,Bryson thrown to TROY21 QB hurried by Curry,Kam PENALTY TROY Pass Interference (Powell,Cecil) 15 yards from TROY41 to TROY26, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:01
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-2
87.2%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Bryson Graves for a loss of 2 yards to the TROY 28Similar
Q3 3:01
2ND & 12
OPP 28
0
87.8%
Ethan Vasko pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:01
3RD & 12
OPP 28
-10
88.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun Vasko,Ethan pass complete deep middle to Tucker,Jameson caught at TROY00, for 0 yards to the TROY28 PENALTY CCU Holding (Johnson,Thomas) 10 yards from TROY28 to TROY38. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:01
3RD & 22
OPP 38
0
89.6%
Ethan Vasko pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:20
4TH & 22
OPP 38
+38
80.4%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Jameson Tucker for 38 yds for a TD (Kade Hensley KICK)Similar
Q3 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-15
78.4%
PENALTY CCU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Tucker,Jameson) 15 yards from CCU35 to CCU20. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 17DOWNS
7 plays · 19 yds · 2:1683% → 84%
Q3 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+14
82.6%
Gerald Green run for 14 yds to the CCU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:12
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
82.9%
Gerald Green run for 4 yds to the CCU 38Similar
Q3 2:12
2ND & 6
OPP 38
+5
82.8%
Gerald Green run for 5 yds to the CCU 33Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 1
OPP 33
+4
84.9%
Gerald Green run for 4 yds to the CCU 37Similar
Q4 14:56
4TH & 5
OPP 37
0
83.7%
Matthew Caldwell pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:56
4TH & 5
OPP 37
0
83.7%
Matthew Caldwell pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 18DOWNS
13 plays · 26 yds · 5:3521% → 13%
Q4 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
79.2%
Christian Washington run for 1 yd to the CCU 38Similar
Q4 14:56
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+10
79.2%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Jameson Tucker for 10 yds to the CCU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-5
77.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun Washington,Christian rush middle for 3 yards gain to the TROY49 (Cutts,Raymond; Jackson,Brendan) PENALTY CCU Illegal Formation 5 yards from CCU48 to CCU43. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:56
1ST & 15
OWN 43
+14
80.5%
Bryson Graves run for 14 yds to the TROY 43Similar
Q4 14:56
2ND & 1
OPP 43
0
76.1%
Ethan Vasko run for no gain to the TROY 43Similar
Q4 14:56
3RD & 1
OPP 43
0
76.5%
Ethan Vasko run for no gain to the TROY 43Similar
Q4 14:56
4TH & 1
OPP 43
+2
78.6%
Ethan Vasko run for 2 yds to the TROY 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-5
76.7%
PENALTY CCU False Start (Lindsay,Zovon) 5 yards from TROY41 to TROY46. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:56
1ST & 15
OPP 46
+12
78.0%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Senika McKie for 12 yds to the TROY 34Similar
Q4 14:56
2ND & 3
OPP 34
+3
75.0%
Ethan Vasko run for 3 yds to the TROY 37Similar
Q4 14:56
3RD & 6
OPP 37
0
77.4%
Ethan Vasko pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:21
4TH & 6
OPP 37
0
86.6%
Ethan Vasko pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:21
4TH & 6
OPP 37
0
86.6%
Ethan Vasko pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 19FG
17 plays · 50 yds · 6:3995% → 99%
Q4 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
94.8%
Damien Taylor run for 5 yds to the TROY 42Similar
Q4 9:21
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+9
94.9%
Damien Taylor run for 9 yds to the CCU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:21
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
95.0%
Damien Taylor run for no gain to the CCU 49Similar
Q4 9:21
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+5
94.9%
Matthew Caldwell run for 5 yds to the CCU 44Similar
Q4 9:21
3RD & 5
OPP 44
+6
94.8%
Damien Taylor run for 6 yds to the CCU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:21
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
95.0%
Gerald Green run for 2 yds to the CCU 36Similar
Q4 9:21
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+11
95.0%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Jackson Worley for 11 yds to the CCU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:21
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
95.0%
Damien Taylor run for 4 yds to the CCU 21Similar
Q4 9:21
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+5
94.8%
Damien Taylor run for 5 yds to the CCU 16Similar
Q4 9:21
3RD & 1
OPP 16
+2
94.8%
Damien Taylor run for 2 yds to the CCU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:21
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
95.0%
Damien Taylor run for 3 yds to the CCU 17Similar
Q4 2:54
2ND & 13
OPP 17
+4
98.4%
Damien Taylor run for 4 yds to the CCU 13Similar
Q4 2:50
3RD & 9
OPP 13
0
98.5%
Matthew Caldwell pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:42
4TH & 9
OPP 13
+36
99.0%
Scott Taylor Renfroe 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 20DOWNS
7 plays · 9 yds · 0:233% → 2%
Q4 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
97.3%
Ethan Vasko pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:42
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
97.4%
Ethan Vasko pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:42
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
97.4%
Ethan Vasko pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:19
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+9
97.7%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Jameson Tucker for 9 yds to the CCU 34Similar
Q4 2:19
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+9
97.7%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Jameson Tucker for 9 yds to the CCU 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 21END OF GAME
8 plays · 10 yds · 2:1999% → 100%
Q4 2:19
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+6
99.4%
Gerald Green run for 6 yds to the CCU 28Similar
Q4 2:12
2ND & 4
OPP 28
+2
99.4%
Gerald Green run for 2 yds to the CCU 26Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 2
OPP 26
+2
99.4%
Gerald Green run for 2 yds to the CCU 28Similar
Q4 1:13
4TH & 4
OPP 28
+6
99.5%
Damien Taylor run for 6 yds to the CCU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-2
99.6%
M. Caldwell takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 6:22
Damien Taylor run for 41 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)
+17.5
TD · Q2 0:27
Matthew Caldwell run for 1 yd for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)
+13.3
TD · Q3 9:22
Braydon Bennett run for 21 yds for a TD (Kade Hensley KICK)
-12.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com