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ULM

UL Monroe 23 at Marshall 28

MRSH
2024 · Week 10 · Nov 2, 2024 · Joan C. Edwards Stadium
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Win probability · MRSH
modelMRSH aheadULM aheadconfidence bandkey playMRSH scoreULM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 3:21 · Braylon Braxton sacked by Billy Pullen for a loss of 12 yards to the ULM 47
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+29.5+14.80−14.8−29.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 106Pregame prior+8.6Home team on offense+2.1Score differential−0.9Garbage-time factor−1.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:33: Ahmad Hardy run for 80 yds for a TD (Max Larson KICK) — ULM win probability +6.0 pts (now 37%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
  2. FG · Q4 14:07: Max Larson 29 yd FG GOOD — ULM win probability +6.9 pts (now 55%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 13:20: Braylon Braxton pass complete to Christian Fitzpatrick for 33 yds for a TD (Rece Verhoff KICK) — MRSH win probability +32.4 pts (now 76%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 3:17: Ethan Payne run for 8 yds for a TD (Rece Verhoff KICK) — MRSH win probability +13.2 pts (now 98%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:48: Artis Cole 26 Yd pass from Aidan Armenta (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — ULM win probability +31.1 pts (now 38%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MRSH made the numbers' call on 5 of 6ULM made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 10:34MRSH 4th & 10 at ULM 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 75.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.6%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.7%
    83% to make
    Punt
    75.2%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 2:30MRSH 4th & 5 at MRSH 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.7%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.0%
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:51ULM 4th & 15 at ULM 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.6%−0.8
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.4%
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:47MRSH 4th & 10 at ULM 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 72.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.6%−0.4
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    72.0%
    77% to make
    Punt
    69.8%−2.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:28MRSH 4th & 6 at MRSH 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.1%−0.8
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:21ULM 4th & 4 at ULM 28, up 7
    Close callPunted · 38.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.1%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.0%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:16ULM 4th & 1 at ULM 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    32.7%−1.4
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:41ULM 4th & 1 at ULM 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    37.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    34.9%−2.2
    average punt
  9. Q3 6:28ULM 4th & 7 at MRSH 36, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 38.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.1%
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.3%−0.7
    42% to make
    Punt
    37.6%−1.4
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:21MRSH 4th & 6 at ULM 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 65.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    66.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    65.3%−1.0
    45% to make
    Punt
    64.0%−2.2
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:07ULM 4th & 11 at MRSH 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 42.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.3%−3.2
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.5%
    87% to make
    Punt
    25.6%−15.9
    average punt
  12. Q4 11:41ULM 4th & 20 at ULM 15, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.8%−5.1
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.0%
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:29MRSH 4th & 3 at ULM 41, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.5 ptsPunted · 75.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    70.8%−4.7
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    72.0%−3.5
    average punt
  14. Q4 6:49ULM 4th & 18 at ULM 11, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.7%−3.8
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.5%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MRSH made the numbers' call on 3 of 4ULM made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 6:47MRSH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:39ULM Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:33ULM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 3:52MRSH Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 13:20MRSH Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 3:17MRSH Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.2%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.2%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 1:48ULM Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    9.8%−0.5
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    10.2%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MRSHDrive 1MISSED FG
12 plays · 55 yds · 4:2277% → 76%
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
76.8%
Braylon Braxton pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:49
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+1
76.7%
A.J. Turner run for 1 yd to the MRSH 31Similar
Q1 14:16
3RD & 9
OWN 31
+22
76.6%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Carl Chester for 22 yds to the ULM 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:52
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+16
76.6%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Chuck Montgomery for 16 yds to the ULM 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+6
76.6%
A.J. Turner run for 6 yds to the ULM 25Similar
Q1 13:05
2ND & 4
OPP 25
-5
76.6%
Braylon Braxton run for a loss of 5 yards to the ULM 30Similar
Q1 12:28
3RD & 9
OPP 30
+15
76.4%
(12:28) BRAXTON, Braylon pass up the middle incomplete broken up by GLASS JR., Carl at the ULM30, clock 12:26. PENALTY ULM Unnecessary Roughness on BARQUET JR., Earl enforced 15 yards from the ULM30 to the ULM15 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 12:23
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
76.5%
Jordan Houston run for 4 yds to the ULM 11Similar
Q1 11:49
2ND & 6
OPP 11
+1
76.5%
Jordan Houston run for 1 yd to the ULM 10Similar
Q1 11:08
3RD & 5
OPP 10
-5
76.2%
Braylon Braxton sacked by Jaeden Calender and Kevontay Wells for a loss of 5 yards to the ULM 15Similar
Q1 10:34
4TH & 10
OPP 15
+33
75.9%
Rece Verhoff 33 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 2INT
3 plays · 17 yds · 1:1124% → 25%
Q1 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
75.7%
Ahmad Hardy run for 9 yds to the ULM 29Similar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+8
75.3%
Ahmad Hardy run for 8 yds to the ULM 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-3
75.2%
Aidan Armenta pass intercepted Josh Moten return for 3 yds to the ULM 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 3TD
7 plays · 38 yds · 2:3276% → 78%
Q1 9:19
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+9
76.0%
Braylon Braxton run for 9 yds to the ULM 29Similar
Q1 8:57
2ND & 1
OPP 29
+1
75.9%
A.J. Turner run for 1 yd to the ULM 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:16
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
75.8%
Braylon Braxton run for 4 yds to the ULM 24Similar
Q1 7:54
2ND & 6
OPP 24
+5
75.7%
(07:54) BRAXTON, Braylon sacked for a loss of 3 yards at the ULM27, fumble on the sack (forced by PULLEN, Billy), recovered by ULM RANDLE, Travor at the ULM27, returned 0 yards to the ULM27, End of Play, clock 07:55. PENALTY Before the snap, ULM Illegal Substitution enforced 5 yards from the ULM24 to the ULM19. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 7:53
2ND & 1
OPP 19
+9
75.7%
Braylon Braxton run for 9 yds to the ULM 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
75.6%
A.J. Turner run for 4 yds to the ULM 6Similar
Q1 6:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
77.7%
A.J. Turner run for 6 yds for a TD (Rece Verhoff KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 4TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 3:0523% → 28%
Q1 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
77.0%
Ahmad Hardy run for 1 yd to the ULM 26Similar
Q1 6:05
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+12
77.0%
Aidan Armenta pass complete to Davon Wells for 12 yds to the ULM 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
76.6%
Ahmad Hardy run for 2 yds to the ULM 40Similar
Q1 5:06
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+7
76.6%
Ahmad Hardy run for 7 yds to the ULM 47Similar
Q1 4:26
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+12
76.1%
Ahmad Hardy run for 12 yds to the MRSH 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:39
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+41
72.4%
Aidan Armenta pass complete to James Jones for 41 yds for a TD (Max Larson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:5974% → 73%
Q1 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+3
73.7%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Tychaun Chapman for 3 yds Tychaun Chapman fumbled, recovered by MRSH Tychaun Chapman T. Chapman return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q1 3:10
2ND & 7
OWN 19
+2
73.6%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Jordan Houston for 2 yds to the MRSH 21Similar
Q1 2:33
3RD & 5
OWN 21
0
73.1%
Braylon Braxton pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:30
4TH & 5
OWN 21
0
72.8%
Alec Clark punt for 60 yds, downed at the ULM 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 2:2127% → 27%
Q1 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+6
72.7%
James Jones run for 6 yds to the ULM 25Similar
Q1 1:30
2ND & 4
OWN 25
+17
72.2%
James Jones run for 17 yds to the ULM 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
71.4%
James Jones run for 2 yds to the ULM 44Similar
Q1 0:05
2ND & 8
OWN 44
0
71.0%
Aidan Armenta pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 8
OWN 44
-7
71.5%
Aidan Armenta sacked by TyQaze Leggs and Jaden Yates for a loss of 7 yards to the ULM 37Similar
Q2 14:51
4TH & 15
OWN 37
+12
72.7%
Makenzie Ryan punt for 38 yds , Chuck Montgomery returns for 12 yds to the MRSH 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 7MISSED FG
11 plays · 44 yds · 4:0474% → 73%
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+13
73.6%
A.J. Turner run for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:26
1ST & 10
50
+2
74.3%
A.J. Turner run for 2 yds to the ULM 48Similar
Q2 13:49
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+11
74.3%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Christian Fitzpatrick for 11 yds to the ULM 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:18
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
74.3%
Jordan Houston run for 6 yds to the ULM 31Similar
Q2 13:00
2ND & 4
OPP 31
+12
74.5%
Braylon Braxton run for 12 yds to the ULM 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:28
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-1
74.4%
Braylon Braxton run for a loss of 1 yard to the ULM 20Similar
Q2 11:38
2ND & 11
OPP 20
+1
74.4%
A.J. Turner run for 1 yd to the ULM 19Similar
Q2 10:54
3RD & 10
OPP 19
0
73.8%
Braylon Braxton pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:47
4TH & 10
OPP 19
+37
72.5%
Rece Verhoff 37 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 8TD
2 plays · 80 yds · 0:0037% → 37%
Q2 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+80
62.8%
Ahmad Hardy run for 80 yds for a TD (Max Larson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:0569% → 64%
Q2 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
69.0%
Braylon Braxton pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:17
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+4
68.8%
Braylon Braxton run for 4 yds to the MRSH 32Similar
Q2 9:35
3RD & 6
OWN 32
0
68.1%
Braylon Braxton pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:28
4TH & 6
OWN 32
0
67.6%
Alec Clark punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Davon Wells at the ULM 22Similar
Q2 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-5
64.4%
JONES, James rush up the middle for no gain to the ULM22 (ANDERSON, J'Coryan;GREEN, Mike), clock 09:23. PENALTY Before the snap, ULM Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the ULM22 to the ULM17. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:5436% → 35%
Q2 9:15
1ST & 15
OWN 17
+2
64.4%
James Jones run for 2 yds to the ULM 19Similar
Q2 8:31
2ND & 13
OWN 19
+1
66.2%
Davon Wells run for 1 yd to the ULM 20Similar
Q2 7:54
3RD & 12
OWN 20
+8
65.2%
James Jones run for 8 yds to the ULM 28Similar
Q2 7:21
4TH & 4
OWN 28
0
64.7%
Makenzie Ryan punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Chuck Montgomery at the MRSH 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 11TD
9 plays · 83 yds · 3:2266% → 73%
Q2 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
65.9%
A.J. Turner run for no gain to the MRSH 17Similar
Q2 6:45
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+5
65.4%
A.J. Turner run for 5 yds to the MRSH 22Similar
Q2 6:18
3RD & 5
OWN 22
+27
64.9%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Jordan Houston for 27 yds to the MRSH 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
67.2%
Braylon Braxton pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:55
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+6
66.8%
Jordan Houston run for 6 yds to the ULM 45Similar
Q2 5:14
3RD & 4
OPP 45
+30
67.2%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Chuck Montgomery for 30 yds to the ULM 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+7
67.6%
Ethan Payne run for 7 yds to the ULM 8Similar
Q2 4:26
2ND & 3
OPP 8
+7
67.5%
Ethan Payne run for 7 yds to the ULM 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
73.1%
Ethan Payne run for 1 yd for a TD (Rece Verhoff KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 12END OF HALF
12 plays · 20 yds · 3:5033% → 32%
Q2 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
66.7%
Ahmad Hardy run for 4 yds to the ULM 29Similar
Q2 3:10
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-1
66.0%
Ahmad Hardy run for a loss of 1 yard to the ULM 28Similar
Q2 2:22
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+6
66.6%
Aidan Armenta pass complete to Jake Godfrey for 6 yds to the ULM 34Similar
Q2 2:16
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+1
68.1%
Julian Nixon run for 1 yd to the ULM 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
67.7%
Ahmad Hardy run for a loss of 1 yard to the ULM 34Similar
Q2 1:12
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+6
68.0%
Ahmad Hardy run for 6 yds to the ULM 40Similar
Q2 0:40
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+8
67.3%
Aidan Armenta pass complete to Davon Wells for 8 yds to the ULM 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-9
66.0%
Aidan Armenta sacked by Mike Green for a loss of 9 yards to the ULM 39Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 19
OWN 39
+6
67.6%
Aidan Armenta run for 6 yds to the ULM 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 13MISSED FG
15 plays · 39 yds · 8:2735% → 40%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
65.4%
Ahmad Hardy run for 1 yd to the ULM 26Similar
Q3 14:16
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+10
65.2%
Ahmad Hardy run for 10 yds to the ULM 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
63.8%
Ahmad Hardy run for 1 yd to the ULM 37Similar
Q3 12:46
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+1
63.9%
Ahmad Hardy run for 1 yd to the ULM 38Similar
Q3 12:03
3RD & 8
OWN 38
+7
64.0%
Aidan Armenta pass complete to Davon Wells for 7 yds to the ULM 45Similar
Q3 11:41
4TH & 1
OWN 45
+3
62.6%
Hunter Herring run for 3 yds to the ULM 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-2
60.4%
Ahmad Hardy run for a loss of 2 yards to the ULM 46Similar
Q3 10:12
2ND & 12
OWN 46
+6
61.7%
Ahmad Hardy run for 6 yds to the MRSH 48Similar
Q3 9:33
3RD & 6
OPP 48
+9
59.8%
Ahmad Hardy run for 9 yds to the MRSH 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:49
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
58.9%
James Jones run for no gain to the MRSH 39Similar
Q3 8:08
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+1
58.7%
James Jones run for 1 yd to the MRSH 38Similar
Q3 7:25
3RD & 9
OPP 38
+2
58.2%
Ahmad Hardy run for 2 yds to the MRSH 36Similar
Q3 6:28
4TH & 7
OPP 36
+54
59.9%
Max Larson 54 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 14DOWNS
9 plays · 17 yds · 3:0066% → 68%
Q3 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
66.2%
A.J. Turner run for 6 yds to the MRSH 42Similar
Q3 5:59
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+3
68.0%
Braylon Braxton run for 3 yds to the MRSH 45Similar
Q3 5:39
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+4
67.2%
A.J. Turner run for 4 yds to the MRSH 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
67.9%
Braylon Braxton run for 5 yds to the ULM 46Similar
Q3 4:22
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+7
68.4%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Chuck Montgomery for 7 yds to the ULM 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:48
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
68.3%
Jordan Houston run for 4 yds to the ULM 35Similar
Q3 3:31
2ND & 6
OPP 35
0
69.2%
Braylon Braxton pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:21
4TH & 6
OPP 35
-12
64.9%
Braylon Braxton sacked by Billy Pullen for a loss of 12 yards to the ULM 47Similar
Q3 3:20
3RD & 6
OPP 35
0
67.5%
Braylon Braxton pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 15FG
8 plays · 42 yds · 4:0845% → 55%
Q3 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
55.5%
Ahmad Hardy run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 2:27
2ND & 7
50
+14
54.7%
Ahmad Hardy run for 14 yds to the MRSH 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:39
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
53.8%
Aidan Armenta pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:34
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+34
53.9%
Ahmad Hardy run for 34 yds to the MRSH 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
50.6%
Bennett Galloway run for no gain to the MRSH 2Similar
Q3 0:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
50.5%
Ahmad Hardy run for a loss of 1 yard to the MRSH 3Similar
Q4 14:49
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
-8
52.1%
Aidan Armenta run for a loss of 8 yards to the MRSH 11Similar
Q4 14:07
4TH & GOAL
OPP 11
+29
45.3%
Max Larson 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 16TD
2 plays · 78 yds · 0:4043% → 76%
Q4 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+45
43.4%
Jordan Houston run for 45 yds to the ULM 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+33
75.8%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Christian Fitzpatrick for 33 yds for a TD (Rece Verhoff KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · -10 yds · 1:3530% → 27%
Q4 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
69.7%
(13:16) HARDY, Ahmad rush up the middle for a gain of 1 yard to the ULM26 (GREEN, Mike;ISHMAEL, Jabari), clock 13:15. PENALTY ULM Holding on FISHER, Elijah enforced 10 yards from the ULM25 to the ULM15 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 13:03
1ST & 20
OWN 15
-5
70.0%
UL Monroe Penalty, Illegal Touch-Pass on WELLS, Davon enforced (Davon Wells) to the ULM 5Similar
Q4 12:44
2ND & 25
OWN 10
+2
70.4%
Ahmad Hardy run for 2 yds to the ULM 12Similar
Q4 12:08
3RD & 23
OWN 12
+3
71.9%
Bennett Galloway run for 3 yds to the ULM 15Similar
Q4 11:41
4TH & 20
OWN 15
0
72.8%
Makenzie Ryan punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Chuck Montgomery at the ULM 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:0875% → 71%
Q4 11:37
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
74.6%
Ethan Payne run for 2 yds to the ULM 46Similar
Q4 11:12
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+5
74.4%
Ethan Payne run for 5 yds to the ULM 41Similar
Q4 10:31
3RD & 3
OPP 41
0
73.2%
Braylon Braxton pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:29
4TH & 3
OPP 41
0
71.2%
Alec Clark punt for 36 yds, downed at the ULM 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 3:3130% → 29%
Q4 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+6
70.4%
James Jones run for 6 yds to the ULM 11Similar
Q4 9:35
2ND & 4
OWN 11
+8
69.8%
James Jones run for 8 yds to the ULM 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-9
69.3%
Aidan Armenta sacked for a loss of 9 yards to the ULM 10 Aidan Armenta fumbled, recovered by ULM Aidan Armenta , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 8:05
2ND & 19
OWN 10
0
69.2%
Ahmad Hardy run for no gain to the ULM 10Similar
Q4 7:31
3RD & 19
OWN 10
+1
70.3%
Aidan Armenta run for 1 yd to the ULM 11Similar
Q4 6:49
4TH & 18
OWN 11
0
70.8%
Makenzie Ryan punt for 37 yds, downed at the ULM 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 20TD
6 plays · 48 yds · 3:2979% → 98%
Q4 6:46
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
79.4%
Jordan Houston run for 2 yds to the ULM 46Similar
Q4 6:03
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+2
80.3%
Jordan Houston run for 2 yds to the ULM 44Similar
Q4 5:16
3RD & 6
OPP 44
+15
81.3%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Chuck Montgomery for 15 yds to the ULM 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+18
83.9%
Ethan Payne run for 18 yds to the ULM 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:04
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
85.1%
Ethan Payne run for 3 yds to the ULM 8Similar
Q4 3:17
2ND & 7
OPP 8
+8
98.2%
Ethan Payne run for 8 yds for a TD (Rece Verhoff KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 21TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:255% → 38%
Q4 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
95.2%
Aidan Armenta pass complete to Wesley Campbell VI for 16 yds to the ULM 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
94.4%
Aidan Armenta pass complete to James Jones for 2 yds to the ULM 43Similar
Q4 2:17
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+31
94.4%
Aidan Armenta pass complete to Tyler Griffin for 31 yds to the MRSH 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:48
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
61.8%
Artis Cole 26 Yd pass from Aidan Armenta (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 22END OF GAME
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:2291% → 95%
Q4 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
91.4%
Braylon Braxton run for 2 yds to the ULM 42Similar
Q4 1:37
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+10
93.8%
Jordan Houston run for 10 yds to the ULM 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:56
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-3
94.6%
(00:56) [NH] Kneel down by TEAM at ULM35 (team loss of 3), clock 00:57.Similar
Q4 0:23
2ND & 13
OPP 35
-4
95.1%
(00:23) [NH] Kneel down by TEAM at ULM39 (team loss of 4), clock 00:17.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 13:20
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Christian Fitzpatrick for 33 yds for a TD (Rece Verhoff KICK)
+32.4
TD · Q4 1:48
Artis Cole 26 Yd pass from Aidan Armenta (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
-31.1
TD · Q4 3:17
Ethan Payne run for 8 yds for a TD (Rece Verhoff KICK)
+13.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com