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UL

Louisiana 23 at Texas State 17

TXST
2024 · Week 10 · Oct 29, 2024 · Bobcat Stadium (TX)
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Win probability · TXST
modelTXST aheadUL aheadconfidence bandkey playTXST scoreUL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDTDFGFGFGFGEnd of GameFG+1.6TXST 63.5%Mason Shipley 25 yd FG GOODAWAY 0 - HOME 6 · Q1 2:50
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 2:50 · Mason Shipley 25 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+37.0+18.50−18.5−37.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 36Home team on offense+2.3Pregame prior+7.6Garbage-time factor+1.0Score differential+0.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:08: Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Caden Jensen for 1 yd for a TD (Kenneth Almendares KICK) — UL win probability +6.3 pts (now 55%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 8:23: Ismail Mahdi 1 Yd Run (Joey Hobert Pass to Jaden Williams for Two-Point Conversion) — TXST win probability +23.8 pts (now 64%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 4:59: Kenneth Almendares 42 yd FG GOOD — UL win probability +7.4 pts (now 54%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 14:08: Kenneth Almendares 24 yd FG GOOD — UL win probability +8.2 pts (now 70%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 7:07: Kenneth Almendares 44 yd FG GOOD — UL win probability +14.0 pts (now 82%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TXST made the numbers' call on 4 of 6UL made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 11:16TXST 4th & 4 at UL 4, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 61.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.8%−0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    61.2%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:17UL 4th & 9 at UL 47, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.6%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:17UL 4th & 9 at UL 47, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.6%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:50TXST 4th & 5 at UL 8, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 62.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.5%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.6%
    90% to make
    Punt
    59.9%−2.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:46TXST 4th & 3 at UL 47, down 1
    Close callPunted · 60.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.3%−0.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:35UL 4th & 6 at TXST 33, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 43.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    43.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    43.5%−0.3
    49% to make
    Punt
    42.8%−1.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:25TXST 4th & 17 at UL 46, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.3%−1.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    55.5%−1.0
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    56.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:21TXST 4th & 16 at TXST 40, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.1%−1.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.2%
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:56UL 4th & 19 at UL 16, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.2%−3.3
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:59UL 4th & 17 at TXST 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 42.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.4%−3.3
    14% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.6%
    66% to make
    Punt
    32.8%−10.9
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:08UL 4th & 7 at TXST 7, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 55.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.2%−1.2
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.4%
    91% to make
    Punt
    38.8%−15.6
    average punt
  12. Q4 10:02TXST 4th & 7 at UL 8, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 36.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.4%−1.6
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.0%
    90% to make
    Punt
    21.2%−14.8
    average punt
  13. Q4 7:07UL 4th & 4 at TXST 27, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsKicked a field goal · 66.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.4%−1.7
    62% to make
    Punt
    48.3%−17.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TXST made the numbers' call on 0 of 1UL made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 0:08UL Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 1:08UL Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 8:23TXST Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    55.7%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    55.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TXSTDrive 1FG
13 plays · 71 yds · 3:3660% → 60%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
59.6%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Chris Dawn Jr. for 6 yds to the TXST 31Similar
Q1 14:32
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
59.6%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Kole Wilson for 3 yds to the TXST 34Similar
Q1 14:04
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
59.6%
Ismail Mahdi run for 3 yds to the TXST 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+31
59.7%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Kole Wilson for 31 yds to the UL 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:22
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+8
59.9%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Jaden Williams for 8 yds to the UL 24Similar
Q1 13:11
2ND & 2
OPP 24
+7
59.9%
Ismail Mahdi run for 7 yds to the UL 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+11
60.0%
Ismail Mahdi run for 11 yds to the UL 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
60.0%
Ismail Mahdi run for 2 yds to the UL 8Similar
Q1 12:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
60.1%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
60.0%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Chris Dawn Jr. for 4 yds to the UL 4Similar
Q1 11:16
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
60.1%
Mason Shipley 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 1:4640% → 40%
Q1 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
60.0%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Jacob Bernard for 21 yds to the UL 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
59.7%
Bill Davis run for 1 yd to the UL 45Similar
Q1 10:08
2ND & 11
OWN 45
+2
59.9%
Bill Davis run for 2 yds to the UL 47Similar
Q1 9:27
3RD & 9
OWN 47
0
60.1%
Ben Wooldridge pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:17
4TH & 9
OWN 47
+10
60.4%
Nathan Torney punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TXST 18 , Joey Hobert returns for 10 yds to the TXST 43 Louisiana Penalty, Illegal Substitution (Jordan Lawson) to the TXST 18Similar
Q1 9:17
4TH & 9
OWN 47
+10
60.4%
Nathan Torney punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TXST 23 , Joey Hobert returns for 10 yds to the TXST 43 Louisiana Penalty, Illegal Substitution (Jordan Lawson) to the TXST 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 3FG
16 plays · 69 yds · 6:1660% → 64%
Q1 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+8
60.2%
Jordan McCloud run for 8 yds to the TXST 31Similar
Q1 8:43
2ND & 2
OWN 31
0
60.4%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Joey Hobert for no gain to the TXST 31Similar
Q1 8:03
3RD & 2
OWN 31
+3
60.1%
Deion Hankins run for 3 yds to the TXST 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+11
60.3%
Ismail Mahdi run for 11 yds to the TXST 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
61.0%
Ismail Mahdi run for 1 yd to the TXST 46Similar
Q1 6:36
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+5
61.0%
(06:41) No Huddle-Shotgun McCloud,Jordan pass incomplete deep left to Wilson,Kole thrown to LA32 PENALTY LA Offside (Williams,Ashley) 5 yards from TXST46 to LA49. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:29
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+10
61.3%
Torrance Burgess Jr. run for 10 yds to the UL 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
61.4%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Kole Wilson for 6 yds to the UL 33Similar
Q1 5:38
2ND & 4
OPP 33
+3
61.6%
Torrance Burgess Jr. run for 3 yds to the UL 30Similar
Q1 5:15
3RD & 1
OPP 30
+3
61.6%
Lincoln Pare run for 3 yds to the UL 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+14
62.0%
Ismail Mahdi run for 14 yds to the UL 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:03
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
62.2%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Chris Dawn Jr. for no gain to the UL 13Similar
Q1 3:29
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+5
62.3%
Jordan McCloud run for 5 yds to the UL 8Similar
Q1 2:55
3RD & 5
OPP 8
0
62.0%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:50
4TH & 5
OPP 8
+25
63.5%
Mason Shipley 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 4TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:3738% → 42%
Q1 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
62.3%
Dre'lyn Washington run for 3 yds to the UL 28Similar
Q1 2:07
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-5
62.0%
(02:12) PENALTY LA False Start (McGowen,King) 5 yards from LA28 to LA23. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:49
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+3
62.4%
Dre'lyn Washington run for 3 yds to the UL 26Similar
Q1 1:01
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+10
62.9%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Harvey Broussard for 10 yds to the UL 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
62.0%
Ben Wooldridge pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:18
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
62.3%
Ben Wooldridge pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:08
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+64
57.8%
Dre'lyn Washington run for 64 yds for a TD (Kenneth Almendares KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 5PUNT
9 plays · 28 yds · 2:1458% → 59%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
58.1%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Joey Hobert for 10 yds to the TXST 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
58.3%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
58.1%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:38
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+11
57.4%
Jordan McCloud run for 11 yds to the TXST 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
59.6%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Kole Wilson for 5 yds to the UL 49Similar
Q2 14:04
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+1
59.8%
Ismail Mahdi run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 13:25
3RD & 6
50
+3
59.3%
Jordan McCloud run for 3 yds to the UL 47Similar
Q2 12:46
4TH & 3
OPP 47
0
58.6%
David Nunez punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Jacob Bernard at the UL 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 6DOWNS
11 plays · 54 yds · 5:0443% → 46%
Q2 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+7
57.0%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Jacob Bernard for 7 yds to the UL 20Similar
Q2 12:11
2ND & 3
OWN 20
+12
56.5%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Ty Stamey for 12 yds to the UL 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
56.1%
Bill Davis run for 4 yds to the UL 36Similar
Q2 10:50
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+14
55.5%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Terrance Carter for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:13
1ST & 10
50
+3
54.4%
Zylan Perry run for 3 yds to the TXST 47Similar
Q2 9:41
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+10
54.1%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Harvey Broussard for 10 yds to the TXST 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:07
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
53.7%
Ben Wooldridge pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:01
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+1
53.7%
Bill Davis run for 1 yd to the TXST 36Similar
Q2 8:16
3RD & 9
OPP 36
+3
53.8%
Bill Davis run for 3 yds to the TXST 33Similar
Q2 7:35
4TH & 6
OPP 33
0
53.9%
Ben Wooldridge pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 2:0353% → 51%
Q2 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+8
53.3%
Torrance Burgess Jr. run for 8 yds to the TXST 41Similar
Q2 7:05
2ND & 2
OWN 41
+20
55.3%
Torrance Burgess Jr. run for 5 yds to the UL 46 for a 1ST down Louisiana Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Carmycah Glass) to the UL 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:52
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
55.8%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:48
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+1
55.6%
Torrance Burgess Jr. run for 1 yd to the UL 38Similar
Q2 6:04
3RD & 9
OPP 38
-8
54.8%
Jordan McCloud sacked for a loss of 8 yards to the UL 46Similar
Q2 5:25
4TH & 17
OPP 46
0
51.2%
David Nunez punt for 46 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 8TD
18 plays · 80 yds · 4:0646% → 55%
Q2 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
54.1%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Terrance Carter for 12 yds to the UL 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+14
53.0%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Terrance Carter for 14 yds to the UL 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
51.5%
Dre'lyn Washington run for 2 yds to the UL 48Similar
Q2 3:39
2ND & 8
OWN 48
0
51.4%
Ben Wooldridge pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:25
3RD & 8
OWN 48
+28
52.0%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Lance LeGendre for 28 yds to the TXST 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:07
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-5
49.4%
PENALTY LA False Start (McGowen,King) 5 yards from TXST24 to TXST29. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:39
1ST & 15
OPP 29
+4
49.8%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Robert Williams for 4 yds to the TXST 25Similar
Q2 1:57
2ND & 11
OPP 25
+11
48.4%
Ben Wooldridge run for 11 yds to the TXST 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:52
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+6
50.9%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Terrance Carter for 6 yds to the TXST 8Similar
Q2 1:48
2ND & 4
OPP 8
+1
50.8%
Dre'lyn Washington run for 1 yd to the TXST 7Similar
Q2 1:43
3RD & 3
OPP 7
+6
52.4%
Ben Wooldridge run for 6 yds to the TXST 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
45.3%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Caden Jensen for 1 yd for a TD (Kenneth Almendares KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 9PUNT
9 plays · 24 yds · 0:3143% → 42%
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+7
43.0%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Beau Sparks for 7 yds to the TXST 23Similar
Q2 0:47
2ND & 3
OWN 23
+23
43.3%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Ismail Mahdi for 8 yds to the TXST 31 for a 1ST down Louisiana Penalty, Roughing The Passer (Cameron Whitfield) to the TXST 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
45.1%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:35
2ND & 10
OWN 46
-8
43.8%
Jordan McCloud sacked by Mason Narcisse for a loss of 8 yards to the TXST 38 Jordan McCloud fumbled, recovered by UL Tellek Lockette , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 0:35
3RD & 18
OWN 38
-5
42.6%
(00:35) PENALTY TXST False Start (Jones,Nash) 5 yards from TXST38 to TXST33. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:31
3RD & 23
OWN 33
+7
42.1%
RJ Martinez pass complete to Kole Wilson for 7 yds to the TXST 40Similar
Q2 0:21
4TH & 16
OWN 40
0
42.0%
David Nunez punt for 58 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UL 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 10END OF HALF
1 play · 1 yds · 0:0052% → 52%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+1
48.4%
Ben Wooldridge run for 1 yd to the UL 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · -9 yds · 1:5561% → 60%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
39.1%
Bill Davis run for 3 yds to the UL 28Similar
Q3 14:27
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-11
37.4%
Ben Wooldridge sacked by Steven Parker for a loss of 11 yards to the UL 17Similar
Q3 13:41
3RD & 18
OWN 17
+1
39.3%
Bill Davis run for 1 yd to the UL 16Similar
Q3 12:56
4TH & 19
OWN 16
0
39.8%
Nathan Torney punt for 29 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 12TD
11 plays · 45 yds · 4:2543% → 64%
Q3 12:48
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
42.5%
Ismail Mahdi run for 6 yds to the UL 39Similar
Q3 12:12
2ND & 4
OPP 39
+4
42.1%
RJ Martinez pass complete to Ismail Mahdi for 4 yds to the UL 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:52
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
43.3%
Ismail Mahdi run for 6 yds to the UL 29Similar
Q3 11:29
2ND & 4
OPP 29
+5
43.1%
RJ Martinez run for 5 yds to the UL 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
42.8%
RJ Martinez pass complete to Jaden Williams for 5 yds to the UL 19Similar
Q3 10:34
2ND & 5
OPP 19
+8
42.6%
Torrance Burgess Jr. run for 8 yds to the UL 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:07
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
41.9%
Torrance Burgess Jr. run for no gain to the UL 11Similar
Q3 9:38
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+4
41.7%
Torrance Burgess Jr. run for 4 yds to the UL 7Similar
Q3 8:47
3RD & 6
OPP 7
+6
39.7%
RJ Martinez pass complete to Jaden Williams for 6 yds to the UL 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
63.5%
Ismail Mahdi 1 Yd Run (Joey Hobert Pass to Jaden Williams for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 13FG
12 plays · 50 yds · 3:1545% → 54%
Q3 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+37
54.7%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Lance LeGendre for 37 yds to the TXST 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:37
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+9
50.2%
Dre'lyn Washington run for 9 yds to the TXST 29Similar
Q3 7:10
2ND & 1
OPP 29
+11
47.8%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Lance LeGendre for 11 yds to the TXST 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:35
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
47.6%
Ben Wooldridge pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:35
2ND & 10
OPP 18
-5
48.1%
(06:35) PENALTY LA False Start (Jensen,Caden) 5 yards from TXST18 to TXST23. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:29
2ND & 15
OPP 23
-10
49.4%
(06:35) Shotgun Wooldridge,Ben pass complete short middle to Carter,Terrance caught at TXST17, for 8 yards to the TXST15 (Polk,Jordan) PENALTY LA Holding (Jackson,George) 10 yards from TXST23 to TXST33. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:49
2ND & 25
OPP 33
0
49.9%
Ben Wooldridge pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:34
3RD & 25
OPP 33
+8
53.0%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Zylan Perry for 8 yds to the TXST 25Similar
Q3 4:59
4TH & 17
OPP 25
+42
45.7%
Kenneth Almendares 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 14FUMBLE
6 plays · 30 yds · 1:0043% → 44%
Q3 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
43.0%
RJ Martinez pass complete to Ismail Mahdi for 5 yds to the TXST 31Similar
Q3 4:21
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+4
43.2%
Ismail Mahdi run for 4 yds to the TXST 35Similar
Q3 4:03
3RD & 1
OWN 35
+3
43.4%
Ismail Mahdi run for 3 yds to the TXST 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
44.4%
RJ Martinez pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:38
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+18
43.8%
Ismail Mahdi run for 18 yds to the UL 44 Ismail Mahdi fumbled, recovered by UL Amir McDanielSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 15FG
10 plays · 49 yds · 4:2460% → 70%
Q3 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
40.5%
Zylan Perry run for 3 yds to the UL 47Similar
Q3 2:45
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+9
40.1%
Ben Wooldridge run for 9 yds to the TXST 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:13
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+8
38.9%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Zylan Perry for 8 yds to the TXST 36Similar
Q3 1:36
2ND & 2
OPP 36
0
39.1%
Zylan Perry run for no gain to the TXST 36Similar
Q3 1:08
3RD & 2
OPP 36
+18
40.0%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Jacob Bernard for 18 yds to the TXST 18 for a 1ST down Texas State Penalty, (Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+10
37.0%
Zylan Perry run for 10 yds to the TXST 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
36.7%
Zylan Perry run for no gain to the TXST 8Similar
Q4 14:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
36.7%
Ben Wooldridge pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
38.5%
Ben Wooldridge run for 1 yd to the TXST 7Similar
Q4 14:08
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+24
30.3%
Kenneth Almendares 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 16FG
11 plays · 67 yds · 3:5331% → 37%
Q4 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
30.5%
RJ Martinez pass complete to Torrance Burgess Jr. for 15 yds to the TXST 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-1
32.9%
RJ Martinez sacked by Jaden Dugger for a loss of 1 yard to the TXST 39Similar
Q4 13:11
2ND & 11
OWN 39
+28
31.0%
RJ Martinez pass complete to Jaden Williams for 28 yds to the UL 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:52
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
36.3%
RJ Martinez pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:44
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+22
36.1%
RJ Martinez pass complete to Torrance Burgess Jr. for 22 yds to the UL 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
36.1%
RJ Martinez run for no gain to the UL 11Similar
Q4 11:16
2ND & 10
OPP 11
0
33.2%
Lincoln Pare run for no gain to the UL 11Similar
Q4 10:34
3RD & 10
OPP 11
+3
30.9%
RJ Martinez run for 3 yds to the UL 8Similar
Q4 10:02
4TH & 7
OPP 8
+25
36.9%
Mason Shipley 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 17FG
9 plays · 48 yds · 2:4954% → 82%
Q4 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
45.6%
Zylan Perry run for 6 yds to the UL 31Similar
Q4 9:19
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+10
39.5%
(09:22) Shotgun Wooldridge,Ben pass incomplete short right to Carter,Terrance thrown to LA32 PENALTY TXST Holding (Eaton,Joshua) 10 yards from LA31 to LA41, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-5
38.1%
PENALTY LA False Start (Williams,Robert) 5 yards from LA41 to LA36. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:09
1ST & 15
OWN 36
+31
41.1%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Robert Williams for 31 yds to the TXST 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:37
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
32.6%
Zylan Perry run for 4 yds to the TXST 29Similar
Q4 7:59
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+2
31.2%
Zylan Perry run for 2 yds to the TXST 27Similar
Q4 7:12
3RD & 4
OPP 27
0
31.9%
Ben Wooldridge pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:07
4TH & 4
OPP 27
+44
17.9%
Kenneth Almendares 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 18INT
12 plays · 43 yds · 3:2623% → 21%
Q4 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
23.1%
RJ Martinez pass complete to Kole Wilson for 5 yds to the TXST 30Similar
Q4 6:37
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
23.0%
Torrance Burgess Jr. run for 4 yds to the TXST 34Similar
Q4 6:23
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+4
22.8%
Torrance Burgess Jr. run for 4 yds to the TXST 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
23.5%
Torrance Burgess Jr. run for 6 yds to the TXST 44Similar
Q4 5:29
2ND & 4
OWN 44
-10
23.6%
(05:37) Shotgun Burgess Jr.,Torrance rush left for 11 yards gain to the LA45 (Dubose,Lorenzell; Ossai,K.C.) PENALTY TXST Holding (Jones,Nash) 10 yards from TXST44 to TXST34. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:13
2ND & 14
OWN 34
+4
19.6%
RJ Martinez pass complete to Joey Hobert for 4 yds to the TXST 38Similar
Q4 4:49
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+12
16.4%
RJ Martinez pass complete to Torrance Burgess Jr. for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:19
1ST & 10
50
+6
19.3%
RJ Martinez run for 6 yds to the UL 44Similar
Q4 4:01
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+12
20.3%
Torrance Burgess Jr. run for 12 yds to the UL 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:29
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
21.1%
RJ Martinez pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 19END OF GAME
11 plays · 33 yds · 3:2189% → 96%
Q4 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
11.2%
Dre'lyn Washington run for 4 yds to the UL 25Similar
Q4 2:42
2ND & 6
OWN 25
0
10.4%
Dre'lyn Washington run for no gain to the UL 25Similar
Q4 2:34
3RD & 6
OWN 25
+15
11.7%
Ben Wooldridge run for 15 yds to the UL 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
6.6%
Dre'lyn Washington run for 4 yds to the UL 36Similar
Q4 1:47
2ND & 14
OWN 36
+12
7.5%
Dre'lyn Washington run for 12 yds to the UL 48Similar
Q4 1:08
3RD & 2
OWN 48
+7
4.4%
Ben Wooldridge run for 7 yds to the TXST 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-1
3.6%
B. Wooldridge takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 8:23
Ismail Mahdi 1 Yd Run (Joey Hobert Pass to Jaden Williams for Two-Point Conversion)
+23.8
FG · Q4 7:07
Kenneth Almendares 44 yd FG GOOD
-14
FG · Q4 14:08
Kenneth Almendares 24 yd FG GOOD
-8.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com