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USM

Southern Miss 15 at James Madison 32

JMU
2024 · Week 9 · Oct 26, 2024 · Bridgeforth Stadium
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Win probability · JMU
modelJMU aheadUSM aheadconfidence bandkey playJMU scoreUSM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDFGFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 14:08 · Bryce Lofton punt for 47 yds , Yamir Knight returns for a loss of 2 yards to the JMU 24
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+43.5+21.80−21.8−43.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 4Pregame prior+42.9Home team on offense+0.0Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0Blowout margin+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:49: George Pettaway run for 4 yds for a TD (Cristiano Rosa KICK) — JMU win probability +3.4 pts (now 90%) (top driver: JMU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 4:50: Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Taylor Thompson for 10 yds for a TD (Cristiano Rosa KICK) — JMU win probability +3.9 pts (now 93%) (top driver: JMU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 10:47: Kenyon Clay 15 Yd Run (Connor Gibbs PAT blocked) — USM win probability +6.5 pts (now 14%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 2:27: Tate Rodemaker run for a loss of 5 yards to the JMU 6 Tate Rodemaker fumbled, recovered by JMU Chris Shearin C. Shearin return for 0 yds — USM win probability +13.4 pts (now 28%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 12:05: Cam Ross 7 Yd pass from Alonza Barnett III (Cristiano Rosa Kick) — USM win probability +1.8 pts (now 19%) (top driver: JMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
JMU made the numbers' call on 9 of 9USM made the numbers' call on 10 of 12
  1. Q1 14:08USM 4th & 8 at USM 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.1%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:41JMU 4th & 4 at USM 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 93.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    93.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    93.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:29USM 4th & 7 at JMU 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 7.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.1%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    7.1%
    62% to make
    Punt
    6.7%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:55JMU 4th & 11 at JMU 46, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.9%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.0%
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:34USM 4th & 3 at USM 24, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.9%−<0.1
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.9%
    average punt
  6. Q1 1:03USM 4th & 8 at USM 42, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.4%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:57JMU 4th & 22 at USM 22, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 88.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.6%−0.6
    7% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.2%
    72% to make
    Punt
    86.9%−1.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 12:18USM 4th & 21 at USM 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.5%−0.8
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.3%
    average punt
  9. Q2 10:40JMU 4th & 17 at JMU 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.1%−0.5
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.5%
    average punt
  10. Q2 7:44USM 4th & 15 at USM 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.9%−1.0
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.9%
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:55USM 4th & 6 at JMU 37, down 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 7.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    7.4%−0.2
    40% to make
    Punt
    7.2%−0.4
    average punt
  12. Q2 1:14JMU 4th & 13 at JMU 33, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.5%−0.8
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.3%
    average punt
  13. Q2 0:00USM 4th & 14 at JMU 29, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 8.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.8%−0.6
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    8.3%
    58% to make
    Punt
    6.6%−1.7
    average punt
  14. Q3 8:23JMU 4th & 7 at JMU 17, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.6%−0.8
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.4%
    average punt
  15. Q3 7:33USM 4th & 10 at USM 12, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.5%−1.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.7%
    average punt
  16. Q3 5:30JMU 4th & 1 at USM 36, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 90.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    90.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    88.5%−1.6
    42% to make
    Punt
    88.3%−1.8
    average punt
  17. Q4 10:42USM 4th & 13 at USM 26, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.4%−3.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.4%
    average punt
  18. Q4 8:53JMU 4th & 6 at JMU 41, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.6%−2.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.7%
    average punt
  19. Q4 6:53USM 4th & 5 at JMU 40, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.2%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    25.6%−1.6
    34% to make
    Punt
    24.4%−2.8
    average punt
  20. Q4 2:08USM 4th & 19 at USM 22, down 3
    Numbers favored punt by 1.8 ptsWent for it · 21.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.2%−1.8
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    14.1%
    average punt
  21. Q4 4:36JMU 4th & 19 at USM 49, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.6%−6.1
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.7%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
JMU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2USM made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 5:49JMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 4:50JMU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 10:47USM Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    11.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USMDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:527% → 7%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
93.3%
Ethan Crawford run for 2 yds to the USM 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
93.3%
Ethan Crawford pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
93.3%
Ethan Crawford pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:08
4TH & 8
OWN 27
-2
93.1%
Bryce Lofton punt for 47 yds , Yamir Knight returns for a loss of 2 yards to the JMU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 2DOWNS
6 plays · 21 yds · 2:2793% → 93%
Q1 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
93.1%
Alonza Barnett III run for 2 yds to the JMU 26Similar
Q1 14:08
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+20
93.1%
George Pettaway run for 20 yds to the JMU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
93.1%
Alonza Barnett III run for 6 yds to the USM 48Similar
Q1 14:08
2ND & 4
OPP 48
0
93.1%
Alonza Barnett III run for no gain to the USM 48Similar
Q1 14:08
3RD & 4
OPP 48
0
93.1%
Alonza Barnett III run for no gain to the USM 48Similar
Q1 11:41
4TH & 4
OPP 48
-7
92.5%
Alonza Barnett III sacked by Jalil Clemons for a loss of 7 yards to the JMU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 3FG
5 plays · 18 yds · 1:128% → 8%
Q1 11:41
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+15
92.4%
Ethan Crawford pass complete to Dannis Jackson for 15 yds to the JMU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:41
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
92.4%
Ethan Crawford pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:41
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+3
92.4%
Ethan Crawford pass complete to Reed Jesiolowski for 3 yds to the JMU 27Similar
Q1 11:41
3RD & 7
OPP 27
0
92.4%
Ethan Crawford pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:29
4TH & 7
OPP 27
+44
92.0%
Connor Gibbs 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 23 yds · 2:2892% → 91%
Q1 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+8
92.0%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Cam Ross for 8 yds to the JMU 31Similar
Q1 10:23
2ND & 2
OWN 31
+16
92.1%
George Pettaway run for 16 yds to the JMU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
91.9%
Wayne Knight run for 4 yds to the USM 49Similar
Q1 8:43
2ND & 6
OPP 49
-5
91.7%
Wayne Knight run for a loss of 5 yards to the JMU 46Similar
Q1 8:43
3RD & 11
OWN 46
0
91.4%
Alonza Barnett III pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:55
4TH & 11
OWN 46
+2
91.1%
Ryan Hanson punt for 49 yds , Tiaquelin Mims returns for 2 yds to the USM 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 3:219% → 10%
Q1 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+3
91.2%
Ethan Crawford run for 3 yds to the USM 10Similar
Q1 7:55
2ND & 7
OWN 10
+3
91.3%
Rodrigues Clark run for 3 yds to the USM 13Similar
Q1 7:55
3RD & 4
OWN 13
+4
91.3%
Rodrigues Clark run for 4 yds to the USM 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:13
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+1
90.6%
Rodrigues Clark run for 1 yd to the USM 18Similar
Q1 5:31
2ND & 9
OWN 18
+6
90.4%
Rodrigues Clark run for 6 yds to the USM 24Similar
Q1 5:31
3RD & 3
OWN 24
0
90.4%
Ethan Crawford pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:34
4TH & 3
OWN 24
0
90.3%
Bryce Lofton punt for 57 yds, downed at the JMU 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 6INT
4 plays · 36 yds · 1:0390% → 90%
Q1 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+6
89.8%
George Pettaway run for 6 yds to the JMU 25Similar
Q1 4:34
2ND & 4
OWN 25
+8
89.9%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Tyler Purdy for 8 yds to the JMU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+13
89.5%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Cam Ross for 13 yds to the JMU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
89.9%
Alonza Barnett III run for 9 yds to the USM 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:1811% → 11%
Q1 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
88.6%
Jalen Washington run for 3 yds to the USM 43Similar
Q1 1:52
2ND & 7
OWN 43
-1
88.4%
Jalen Washington run for a loss of 1 yard to the USM 42Similar
Q1 1:13
3RD & 8
OWN 42
0
88.3%
Ethan Crawford pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:03
4TH & 8
OWN 42
0
88.6%
Bryce Lofton punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Yamir Knight at the JMU 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 8FG
6 plays · 50 yds · 2:0688% → 88%
Q1 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
88.4%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Cam Ross for 4 yds to the JMU 32Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+59
88.0%
Wayne Knight run for 59 yds to the USM 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-15
88.9%
James Madison Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the USM 24Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 24
+2
88.5%
George Pettaway run for 2 yds to the USM 22Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 22
0
88.1%
Alonza Barnett III pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:57
4TH & GOAL
OPP 22
+40
88.1%
Cristiano Rosa 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · -11 yds · 1:3912% → 12%
Q2 13:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
88.0%
Ethan Crawford sacked by Khairi Manns and Terry Lockett Jr. for a loss of 6 yards to the USM 19Similar
Q2 13:57
2ND & 16
OWN 19
+3
88.1%
Ethan Crawford run for 3 yds to the USM 22Similar
Q2 12:47
3RD & 13
OWN 22
-5
87.9%
Southern Miss Penalty, unnecessary roughness (-5 Yards) to the USM 14Similar
Q2 12:18
4TH & 21
OWN 14
+5
87.9%
Bryce Lofton punt for 44 yds , Yamir Knight returns for 5 yds to the JMU 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · -7 yds · 1:3889% → 87%
Q2 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
88.5%
Alonza Barnett III pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:18
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+2
88.4%
George Pettaway run for 2 yds to the JMU 49Similar
Q2 12:18
3RD & 8
OWN 49
-9
88.1%
Alonza Barnett III sacked by Desmyn Baker for a loss of 9 yards to the JMU 40Similar
Q2 10:40
4TH & 17
OWN 40
-2
86.6%
Ryan Hanson punt for 40 yds , Tiaquelin Mims returns for a loss of 2 yards to the USM 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 7 yds · 2:5614% → 15%
Q2 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-1
86.5%
Ethan Crawford pass complete to Dannis Jackson for a loss of 1 yard to the USM 17Similar
Q2 10:40
2ND & 11
OWN 17
-7
86.7%
Ethan Crawford sacked by DJ Barksdale for a loss of 7 yards to the USM 10Similar
Q2 10:40
3RD & 18
OWN 10
+20
87.0%
Ethan Crawford pass complete to Larry Simmons for 20 yds to the USM 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
86.4%
Ethan Crawford pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:35
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
85.4%
Ethan Crawford pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:35
3RD & 10
OWN 30
-5
85.8%
Ethan Crawford sacked by Jacob Thomas and Darold DeNgohe for a loss of 5 yards to the USM 25Similar
Q2 7:44
4TH & 15
OWN 25
+40
85.4%
Bryce Lofton punt for 40 yds , Yamir Knight returns for no gain to the JMU 33 , returns for no gain to the JMU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 12TD
5 plays · 67 yds · 1:5586% → 90%
Q2 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+11
86.0%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to George Pettaway for 11 yds to the JMU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
86.8%
George Pettaway run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 6:50
2ND & 4
50
+23
86.6%
Taji Hudson pass complete to Wayne Knight for 23 yds to the USM 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+23
86.9%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to George Pettaway for 23 yds to the USM 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
90.3%
George Pettaway run for 4 yds for a TD (Cristiano Rosa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 13INT
1 play · 1 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q2 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+1
89.0%
Jalen Washington run for 1 yd to the USM 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 14TD
1 play · 10 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q2 4:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
92.9%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Taylor Thompson for 10 yds for a TD (Cristiano Rosa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 15FG
10 plays · 38 yds · 2:558% → 10%
Q2 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
92.1%
Kenyon Clay run for 6 yds to the USM 31Similar
Q2 4:50
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-5
91.9%
Southern Miss Penalty, False Start (Dannis Jackson) to the USM 26Similar
Q2 4:50
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+20
92.1%
Ethan Crawford pass complete to Kenyon Clay for 20 yds to the USM 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+13
91.8%
Ethan Crawford pass complete to Davis Dalton for 13 yds to the JMU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:51
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-6
90.8%
Ethan Crawford sacked by Jacob Dobbs for a loss of 6 yards to the JMU 47Similar
Q2 2:51
2ND & 16
OPP 47
0
91.4%
Ethan Crawford pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:44
3RD & 16
OPP 47
+10
91.7%
Jalen Washington run for 10 yds to the JMU 37Similar
Q2 1:55
4TH & 6
OPP 37
+54
90.0%
Connor Gibbs 54 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 16PUNT
9 plays · 8 yds · 0:4191% → 92%
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
91.0%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Taylor Thompson for 5 yds to the JMU 30Similar
Q2 1:55
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+1
91.1%
Alonza Barnett III run for 1 yd to the JMU 31Similar
Q2 1:55
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+5
90.8%
Alonza Barnett III run for 5 yds to the JMU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
91.3%
Alonza Barnett III pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:32
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-7
91.1%
Alonza Barnett III sacked by Ryan Johnson for a loss of 7 yards to the JMU 29Similar
Q2 1:21
3RD & 17
OWN 29
+4
92.4%
Alonza Barnett III run for 4 yds to the JMU 33Similar
Q2 1:14
4TH & 13
OWN 33
0
92.2%
Ryan Hanson punt for 33 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 17FG
11 plays · 37 yds · 1:1410% → 9%
Q2 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
90.2%
Ethan Crawford pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:10
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+2
90.3%
Ethan Crawford run for 2 yds to the USM 36Similar
Q2 1:02
3RD & 8
OWN 36
+16
91.5%
Ethan Crawford run for 16 yds to the JMU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+23
90.5%
Ethan Crawford pass complete to Kyirin Heath for 23 yds to the JMU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
89.9%
Ethan Crawford pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:37
2ND & 10
OPP 25
-2
90.0%
Ethan Crawford sacked by Jacob Dobbs and Darold DeNgohe for a loss of 2 yards to the JMU 27Similar
Q2 0:29
3RD & 12
OPP 27
-2
91.8%
Ethan Crawford sacked by Jacob Dobbs and Mychal McMullin for a loss of 2 yards to the JMU 29Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 14
OPP 29
+46
91.0%
Connor Gibbs 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 19PUNT TD
9 plays · 3 yds · 4:007% → 14%
Q3 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
92.7%
Kenyon Clay run for no gain to the USM 25Similar
Q3 14:47
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
92.8%
Tiaquelin Mims run for 9 yds to the USM 34Similar
Q3 14:47
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
92.4%
Ethan Crawford run for 2 yds to the USM 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
92.3%
Kenyon Clay run for 8 yds to the USM 44Similar
Q3 13:08
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+7
91.9%
Kenyon Clay run for 7 yds to the JMU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:08
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
91.8%
Ethan Crawford pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:58
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
92.1%
Rodrigues Clark run for no gain to the JMU 49Similar
Q3 11:22
3RD & 10
OPP 49
+34
92.3%
Ethan Crawford pass complete to Dannis Jackson for 34 yds to the JMU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:47
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
85.8%
Kenyon Clay 15 Yd Run (Connor Gibbs PAT blocked)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 2:1790% → 88%
Q3 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-2
89.8%
Wayne Knight run for a loss of 2 yards to the JMU 12Similar
Q3 9:18
2ND & 12
OWN 12
+4
88.8%
Cam Ross run for 4 yds to the JMU 16Similar
Q3 9:18
3RD & 8
OWN 16
+1
88.3%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Yamir Knight for 1 yd to the JMU 17Similar
Q3 8:23
4TH & 7
OWN 17
-8
87.8%
Ryan Hanson punt for 53 yds , Tiaquelin Mims returns for a loss of 8 yards to the USM 9 Southern Miss Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the USM 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 21DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:5011% → 10%
Q3 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
89.2%
Ethan Crawford pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:23
2ND & 10
OWN 12
0
89.4%
Jalen Washington run for no gain to the USM 12Similar
Q3 8:23
3RD & 10
OWN 12
0
89.9%
Ethan Crawford pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:33
4TH & 10
OWN 12
0
90.2%
Bryce Lofton punt for 33 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 22FUMBLE
4 plays · 58 yds · 1:5690% → 89%
Q3 7:26
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-4
90.4%
Alonza Barnett III sacked by Ja'Len Sims for a loss of 4 yards to the USM 49Similar
Q3 7:26
2ND & 14
OPP 49
+2
89.8%
George Pettaway run for 2 yds to the USM 47Similar
Q3 6:30
3RD & 12
OPP 47
+11
89.4%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Yamir Knight for 11 yds to the USM 36Similar
Q3 5:30
4TH & 1
OPP 36
0
89.2%
George Pettaway run for no gain to the USM 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 23TD
8 plays · 94 yds · 2:5812% → 28%
Q3 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
88.2%
Rodrigues Clark run for no gain to the USM 36Similar
Q3 5:25
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+2
88.5%
Ethan Crawford run for 2 yds to the USM 38Similar
Q3 4:10
3RD & 8
OWN 38
+38
88.6%
Ethan Crawford pass complete to Dannis Jackson for 38 yds to the JMU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
85.9%
Ethan Crawford pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:10
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+12
86.4%
Jalen Washington run for 12 yds to the JMU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:25
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+7
85.7%
James Madison Penalty, Face mask (0 yards) (Khairi Manns) to the JMU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
85.7%
Ethan Crawford run for 4 yds to the JMU 1Similar
Q3 2:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
72.4%
Tate Rodemaker run for a loss of 5 yards to the JMU 6 Tate Rodemaker fumbled, recovered by JMU Chris Shearin C. Shearin return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:0277% → 75%
Q3 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+15
76.9%
Southern Miss Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the JMU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
78.0%
Alonza Barnett III pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:07
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+6
77.4%
George Pettaway run for 6 yds to the JMU 29Similar
Q3 1:37
3RD & 4
OWN 29
0
76.8%
Alonza Barnett III pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:25
4TH & 4
OWN 29
+5
75.4%
HANSON, Ryan punt 41 yards to the USM30, fair catch by MIMS, Tiaquelin, clock 01:25. PENALTY USM Running Into the kicker on KNOX, Cameron enforced 5 yards from the JMU29 to the JMU34 and results in a 1ST DOWN [FAKE PUNT]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 25PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 4:2078% → 81%
Q3 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+31
77.8%
George Pettaway run for 31 yds to the USM 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-4
80.9%
George Pettaway run for a loss of 4 yards to the USM 39Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 14
OPP 39
+18
78.6%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Wayne Knight for 18 yds to the USM 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+7
80.8%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Cam Ross for 7 yds to the USM 14Similar
Q4 14:15
2ND & 3
OPP 14
+7
83.0%
Alonza Barnett III run for 7 yds to the USM 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
83.0%
Wayne Knight run for 4 yds to the USM 3Similar
Q4 14:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-4
83.0%
Alonza Barnett III run for a loss of 4 yards to the USM 7Similar
Q4 12:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
81.2%
Cam Ross 7 Yd pass from Alonza Barnett III (Cristiano Rosa Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 26DOWNS
6 plays · 34 yds · 1:2324% → 22%
Q4 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
75.9%
Ethan Crawford pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:05
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
76.3%
Kenyon Clay run for 19 yds to the USM 44 for a 1ST down Southern Miss Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Greg Nunnery) to the USM 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-3
75.2%
Ethan Crawford sacked by Mychal McMullin for a loss of 3 yards to the USM 26Similar
Q4 12:05
2ND & 13
OWN 26
0
76.4%
Ethan Crawford pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:05
3RD & 13
OWN 26
0
77.7%
Ethan Crawford pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:42
4TH & 13
OWN 26
+4
77.8%
Bryce Lofton punt for 52 yds , Yamir Knight returns for 4 yds to the JMU 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 27PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 1:4979% → 77%
Q4 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
78.7%
George Pettaway run for 6 yds to the JMU 32Similar
Q4 10:42
2ND & 4
OWN 32
+5
79.6%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Yamir Knight for 5 yds to the JMU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
79.7%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Yamir Knight for 4 yds to the JMU 41Similar
Q4 10:42
2ND & 6
OWN 41
0
80.9%
Alonza Barnett III pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:42
3RD & 6
OWN 41
0
79.4%
Alonza Barnett III pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:53
4TH & 6
OWN 41
+21
76.7%
Ryan Hanson punt for 39 yds , Tiaquelin Mims returns for 21 yds to the USM 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 28DOWNS
14 plays · 28 yds · 6:4527% → 22%
Q4 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+14
73.4%
Jalen Washington run for 14 yds to the USM 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
70.8%
CRAWFORD, Ethan pass deep to the right incomplete intended for JACKSON, Dannis thrown to the JMU35. PENALTY JMU Face mask on FLOWE, KJ enforced 15 yards from the USM40 to the JMU45 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 8:53
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
68.1%
Jalen Washington run for 2 yds to the JMU 43Similar
Q4 8:53
2ND & 8
OPP 43
0
68.3%
Ethan Crawford pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:53
3RD & 8
OPP 43
+3
69.1%
Jalen Washington run for 3 yds to the JMU 40Similar
Q4 6:53
4TH & 5
OPP 40
0
69.1%
Ethan Crawford pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
71.8%
Ethan Crawford pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:07
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+8
72.0%
Ethan Crawford pass complete to Dannis Jackson for 8 yds to the USM 28Similar
Q4 3:37
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+3
70.2%
Kenyon Clay run for 3 yds to the USM 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-7
69.4%
Ethan Crawford sacked by Eric O'Neill and Mychal McMullin for a loss of 7 yards to the USM 24Similar
Q4 3:17
2ND & 17
OWN 24
-2
72.4%
Ethan Crawford sacked by Eric O'Neill and Khairi Manns for a loss of 2 yards to the USM 22Similar
Q4 3:17
3RD & 19
OWN 22
0
74.0%
Ethan Crawford pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:08
4TH & 19
OWN 22
+15
78.2%
Ethan Crawford run for 15 yds to the USM 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 29END OF GAME
10 plays · 12 yds · 6:5380% → 94%
Q4 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+20
80.3%
George Pettaway run for 20 yds to the USM 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:53
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
81.3%
Wayne Knight run for no gain to the USM 40Similar
Q4 5:36
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+1
81.6%
Wayne Knight run for 1 yd to the USM 39Similar
Q4 5:00
3RD & 9
OPP 39
-5
80.3%
James Madison Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the USM 44Similar
Q4 5:00
3RD & 14
OPP 44
0
78.3%
Alonza Barnett III pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:00
4TH & 14
OPP 44
-5
76.0%
James Madison Penalty, Delay Of Game (Ryan Hanson) to the USM 49Similar
Q4 4:36
4TH & 19
OPP 49
0
77.3%
Ryan Hanson punt for 40 ydsSimilar
Q4 1:58
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
90.4%
Jobi Malary run for 5 yds to the USM 32Similar
Q4 1:58
2ND & 5
OPP 32
+8
91.0%
Jobi Malary run for 8 yds to the USM 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-1
93.6%
[NH] Kneel down by MORRIS, Dylan at USM25 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 2:27
Tate Rodemaker run for a loss of 5 yards to the JMU 6 Tate Rodemaker fumbled, recovered by JMU Chris Shearin C. Shearin return for 0 yds
-13.4
TD · Q3 10:47
Kenyon Clay 15 Yd Run (Connor Gibbs PAT blocked)
-6.5
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+6.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com