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USM

Southern Miss 21 at UL Monroe 38

ULM
2024 · Week 7 · Oct 12, 2024 · Malone Stadium
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Win probability · ULM
modelULM aheadUSM aheadconfidence bandkey playULM scoreUSM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDEnd of GameFG-6.4ULM 59.1%Connor Gibbs 37 Yd Field GoalAWAY 6 - HOME 14 · Q2 0:02
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:02 · Connor Gibbs 37 Yd Field Goal
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorDefense timeouts
+34.0+17.00−17.0−34.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 88Home team on offense+4.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.1Pregame prior+4.8Score differential+2.5Garbage-time factor−0.3Defense timeouts−11.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:00: Ahmad Hardy run for 34 yds for a TD (Max Larson KICK) — ULM win probability +5.1 pts (now 62%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 13:19: Aidan Armenta pass complete to James Jones for 36 yds for a TD (Max Larson KICK) — ULM win probability +11.5 pts (now 74%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 0:02: Connor Gibbs 37 Yd Field Goal — USM win probability +6.4 pts (now 41%) (top driver: Defense has -9 timeouts left).
  4. TD · Q4 14:09: Julian Nixon 6 Yd pass from Aidan Armenta (Max Larson Kick) — ULM win probability +13.8 pts (now 85%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:04: Aidan Armenta 4 Yd Run (Max Larson Kick) — ULM win probability +5.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ULM made the numbers' call on 4 of 6USM made the numbers' call on 8 of 12
  1. Q1 12:59ULM 4th & 19 at ULM 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.5%−0.2
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:12USM 4th & 5 at USM 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.2%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:49ULM 4th & 3 at ULM 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.1%−<0.1
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:08USM 4th & 4 at ULM 4, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 38.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.4%−0.2
    93% to make
    Punt
    36.4%−2.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:13USM 4th & 11 at midfield, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.0%−0.4
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:40ULM 4th & 9 at USM 43, up 11
    Close callPunted · 73.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.2%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    72.5%−0.7
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    73.0%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:15USM 4th & 1 at ULM 41, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    23.7%−1.8
    32% to make
    Punt
    23.8%−1.7
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:49USM 4th & 13 at ULM 40, down 11
    Close callPunted · 23.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.6%−0.2
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    22.8%
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    22.7%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:51ULM 4th & 1 at ULM 40, up 11
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 77.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.4%−1.5
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:02USM 4th & 6 at ULM 19, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 23.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.1%−0.3
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    23.4%
    77% to make
    Punt
    18.1%−5.3
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:04USM 4th & 2 at USM 33, down 8
    Close callPunted · 24.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.4%−0.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:50ULM 4th & 8 at USM 28, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 77.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.9%−0.6
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    77.4%
    60% to make
    Punt
    71.2%−6.3
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:08USM 4th & 11 at USM 33, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.3%−1.8
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:38USM 4th & 8 at USM 8, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.0%−0.8
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.8%
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:23USM 4th & 5 at ULM 49, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.4%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:10ULM 4th & 9 at midfield, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.3%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.4%
    average punt
  17. Q4 3:50USM 4th & 11 at USM 19, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 2.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.8%−0.2
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.0%
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:19USM 4th & 4 at USM 39, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.5%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ULM made the numbers' call on 4 of 5USM made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 0:00ULM Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:19ULM Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 14:09ULM Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 9:04ULM Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.6%−0.3
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 2:43ULM Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 0:22USM Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ULMDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · -9 yds · 2:0160% → 60%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
59.8%
Ahmad Hardy run for 1 yd to the ULM 26Similar
Q1 14:25
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+1
59.8%
Ahmad Hardy run for 1 yd to the ULM 27Similar
Q1 13:45
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-11
59.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 11 yards to the ULM 16 fumbled, recovered by ULM return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q1 12:59
4TH & 19
OWN 16
+6
59.7%
Makenzie Ryan punt for 40 yds , Tiaquelin Mims returns for 6 yds to the USM 22 Southern Miss Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the USM 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:3640% → 40%
Q1 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
59.8%
Rodrigues Clark run for 5 yds to the USM 39Similar
Q1 12:25
2ND & 5
OWN 39
0
59.7%
Ethan Crawford pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:14
3RD & 5
OWN 39
0
59.7%
Ethan Crawford pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:12
4TH & 5
OWN 39
0
59.9%
Bryce Lofton punt for 54 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 3:1660% → 59%
Q1 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+8
59.8%
James Jones run for 8 yds to the ULM 15Similar
Q1 11:35
2ND & 2
OWN 15
+1
59.8%
Ahmad Hardy run for 1 yd to the ULM 16Similar
Q1 11:02
3RD & 1
OWN 16
+2
59.6%
Hunter Herring run for 2 yds to the ULM 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
59.8%
Aidan Armenta pass complete to Rylan Green for 3 yds to the ULM 21Similar
Q1 9:45
2ND & 7
OWN 21
+6
59.8%
James Jones run for 6 yds to the ULM 27Similar
Q1 9:20
3RD & 1
OWN 27
-2
59.9%
James Jones run for a loss of 2 yards to the ULM 25Similar
Q1 8:49
4TH & 3
OWN 25
0
59.3%
Makenzie Ryan punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Tiaquelin Mims at the USM 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 4FG
12 plays · 59 yds · 5:3540% → 42%
Q1 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+14
59.8%
Ethan Crawford pass complete to Reed Jesiolowski for 14 yds to the ULM 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
59.1%
Rodrigues Clark run for 7 yds to the ULM 42Similar
Q1 7:47
2ND & 3
OPP 42
+5
58.9%
UL Monroe Penalty, Offsides (5 Yards) to the ULM 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:31
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
59.0%
Rodrigues Clark run for 4 yds to the ULM 33Similar
Q1 7:02
2ND & 6
OPP 33
+13
58.7%
Kenyon Clay run for 13 yds to the ULM 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:33
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
58.2%
Kenyon Clay run for 3 yds to the ULM 17Similar
Q1 6:02
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+3
57.8%
Rodrigues Clark run for 3 yds to the ULM 14Similar
Q1 5:19
3RD & 4
OPP 14
+5
58.0%
Ethan Crawford run for 5 yds to the ULM 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
57.5%
Rodrigues Clark run for 5 yds to the ULM 4Similar
Q1 4:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
57.5%
Rodrigues Clark run for 3 yds to the ULM 1Similar
Q1 3:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-3
57.8%
Ethan Crawford sacked by Tristan Shorter for a loss of 3 yards to the ULM 4Similar
Q1 3:08
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+22
57.6%
Connor Gibbs 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 5TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 3:0756% → 62%
Q1 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
56.2%
Aidan Armenta pass complete to Davon Wells for 16 yds to the ULM 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-1
57.1%
Aidan Armenta pass complete to Nate Sullivan Jr. for a loss of 1 yard to the ULM 40Similar
Q1 2:01
2ND & 11
OWN 40
+3
56.2%
Aidan Armenta run for 3 yds to the ULM 43Similar
Q1 1:17
3RD & 8
OWN 43
+18
55.8%
Aidan Armenta pass complete to Jake Godfrey for 18 yds to the USM 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:38
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
57.2%
Ahmad Hardy run for 5 yds to the USM 34Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+34
62.4%
Ahmad Hardy run for 34 yds for a TD (Max Larson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 6FUMBLE
2 plays · 28 yds · 0:2938% → 39%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
61.6%
Kenyon Clay run for 12 yds to the USM 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:31
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+16
61.0%
Ethan Crawford pass complete to Kenyon Clay for 16 yds Kenyon Clay fumbled, recovered by ULM Wydett Williams Jr. W. Williams Jr. return for 10 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 7TD
3 plays · 43 yds · 0:5162% → 74%
Q2 14:10
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
62.4%
Aidan Armenta pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:10
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+7
62.2%
James Jones run for 7 yds to the USM 36Similar
Q2 13:19
3RD & 3
OPP 36
+36
73.8%
Aidan Armenta pass complete to James Jones for 36 yds for a TD (Max Larson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 8PUNT
9 plays · 25 yds · 3:0632% → 30%
Q2 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
68.0%
Ethan Crawford pass complete to Reed Jesiolowski for 4 yds to the USM 29Similar
Q2 12:42
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+22
67.9%
Rodrigues Clark run for 22 yds to the ULM 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:02
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
66.6%
Rodrigues Clark run for 2 yds to the ULM 47Similar
Q2 11:23
2ND & 8
OPP 47
-5
66.9%
Southern Miss Penalty, False Start (Reed Jesiolowski) to the USM 48Similar
Q2 11:06
2ND & 13
OWN 48
0
68.3%
Ethan Crawford pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:02
3RD & 13
OWN 48
+7
69.1%
Ethan Crawford run for 7 yds to the ULM 45Similar
Q2 10:13
4TH & 6
OPP 45
-5
68.9%
Southern Miss Penalty, Delay Of Game (Bryce Lofton) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 10:13
4TH & 11
50
0
69.9%
Bryce Lofton punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Davon Wells at the ULM 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 9PUNT
9 plays · 45 yds · 3:2776% → 78%
Q2 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+1
76.2%
Ahmad Hardy run for 1 yd to the ULM 13Similar
Q2 9:28
2ND & 9
OWN 13
+27
77.1%
Ahmad Hardy run for 27 yds to the ULM 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
78.3%
Aidan Armenta pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:42
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+16
76.5%
Aidan Armenta pass complete to Davon Wells for 16 yds to the USM 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:06
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
78.0%
Ahmad Hardy run for 1 yd to the USM 43Similar
Q2 7:19
2ND & 9
OPP 43
0
78.6%
Aidan Armenta pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:15
3RD & 9
OPP 43
0
78.0%
Aidan Armenta run for no gain to the USM 43Similar
Q2 6:40
4TH & 9
OPP 43
0
77.6%
Makenzie Ryan punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 10PUNT
10 plays · 40 yds · 3:4126% → 22%
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
73.7%
Jalen Washington run for 10 yds to the USM 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+20
73.6%
Ethan Crawford pass complete to Justyn Reid for 20 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:29
1ST & 10
50
0
72.5%
Ethan Crawford pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:22
2ND & 10
50
+6
73.0%
Jalen Washington run for 6 yds to the ULM 44Similar
Q2 4:43
3RD & 4
OPP 44
+3
74.4%
Jalen Washington run for 3 yds to the ULM 41Similar
Q2 4:15
4TH & 1
OPP 41
+4
75.7%
Ethan Crawford run for 4 yds to the ULM 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:40
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
74.6%
Ethan Crawford pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:36
2ND & 10
OPP 37
-3
74.8%
Ethan Crawford run for a loss of 3 yards to the ULM 40Similar
Q2 2:57
3RD & 13
OPP 40
0
76.2%
Ethan Crawford pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:49
4TH & 13
OPP 40
0
77.7%
Bryce Lofton punt for 40 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 0:5281% → 81%
Q2 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
81.4%
James Jones run for 11 yds to the ULM 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
82.1%
Aidan Armenta pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:03
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+9
82.0%
Aidan Armenta pass complete to Artis Cole for 9 yds to the ULM 40Similar
Q2 1:58
3RD & 1
OWN 40
0
81.1%
Hunter Herring run for no gain to the ULM 40Similar
Q2 1:51
4TH & 1
OWN 40
0
80.5%
Makenzie Ryan punt for 59 yds, downed at the USM 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 12FG
12 plays · 80 yds · 1:3821% → 41%
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+9
78.7%
Ethan Crawford run for 9 yds to the USM 10Similar
Q2 1:09
2ND & 1
OWN 10
+5
78.8%
Ethan Crawford run for 5 yds to the USM 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+15
79.8%
(00:59) CRAWFORD, Ethan pass deep to the right incomplete intended for DALTON, Davis thrown to the USM40; QB hurried by WILLIAMS JR., Wydett, clock 00:54. PENALTY ULM Roughing the Passer on WILLIAMS JR., Wydett enforced 15 yards from the USM15 to the USM30 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+47
79.4%
Ethan Crawford pass complete to Dannis Jackson for 47 yds to the ULM 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:39
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
76.2%
Ethan Crawford run for 2 yds to the ULM 21Similar
Q2 0:35
2ND & 8
OPP 21
+7
72.5%
Ethan Crawford pass complete to Rodrigues Clark for 7 yds to the ULM 14Similar
Q2 0:12
3RD & 1
OPP 14
-5
74.1%
Southern Miss Penalty, False Start (Rodrigues Clark) to the ULM 19Similar
Q2 0:11
3RD & 6
OPP 19
0
65.5%
Ethan Crawford pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:02
4TH & 6
OPP 19
+37
59.1%
Connor Gibbs 37 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0065% → 65%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-2
64.9%
(00:01) [NH] Kneel down by ARMENTA, Aidan at ULM36 (team loss of 2).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:5627% → 26%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
72.9%
Ethan Crawford run for 4 yds to the USM 29Similar
Q3 14:26
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-4
72.6%
Rodrigues Clark run for a loss of 4 yards to the USM 25Similar
Q3 13:45
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+8
74.5%
Ethan Crawford run for 8 yds to the USM 33Similar
Q3 13:04
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
74.0%
Bryce Lofton punt for 38 yds, downed at the ULM 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 15FG
7 plays · 43 yds · 4:0575% → 81%
Q3 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
75.4%
Hunter Herring pass complete to Ahmad Hardy for no gain to the ULM 29Similar
Q3 12:15
2ND & 10
OWN 29
-2
75.1%
Hunter Herring pass complete to Jake Godfrey for a loss of 2 yards to the ULM 27Similar
Q3 11:33
3RD & 12
OWN 27
+43
74.3%
Aidan Armenta run for 43 yds to the USM 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:48
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
78.4%
Ahmad Hardy run for 1 yd to the USM 29Similar
Q3 10:05
2ND & 9
OPP 29
+1
78.6%
Davon Wells run for 1 yd to the USM 28Similar
Q3 9:32
3RD & 8
OPP 28
0
77.9%
Aidan Armenta run for no gain to the USM 28Similar
Q3 8:50
4TH & 8
OPP 28
+47
80.5%
Max Larson 47 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 16PUNT
9 plays · 12 yds · 1:4321% → 19%
Q3 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
78.7%
Ethan Crawford pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:36
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+8
79.0%
Kenyon Clay run for 8 yds to the USM 29Similar
Q3 8:04
3RD & 2
OWN 29
+5
78.8%
UL Monroe Penalty, Delay Of Game (Tristan Shorter) to the USM 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-1
78.3%
Kenyon Clay run for a loss of 1 yard to the USM 33Similar
Q3 7:18
2ND & 11
OWN 33
0
79.4%
Ethan Crawford pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:14
3RD & 11
OWN 33
0
80.3%
Ethan Crawford pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:08
4TH & 11
OWN 33
+34
80.8%
Bryce Lofton punt for 34 yds , Davon Wells returns for no gain to the ULM 37 , returns for no gain to the ULM 37Similar
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-15
80.9%
(07:00) ARMENTA, Aidan pass to the right complete for 16 yards to SULLIVAN JR., Nate caught at the USM50 and advanced to the USM47 (MYERS, Braxton), clock 06:54. PENALTY ULM Pass Interference on COLE, Artis enforced 15 yards to the ULM22 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 17INT
2 plays · -14 yds · 0:4280% → 80%
Q3 6:46
1ST & 25
OWN 22
+1
80.1%
James Jones run for 1 yd to the ULM 23Similar
Q3 6:04
2ND & 24
OWN 23
+12
80.2%
Southern Miss Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (Ques McNeal) to the ULM 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 18MISSED FG
7 plays · 42 yds · 2:1182% → 86%
Q3 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
82.0%
James Jones run for 2 yds to the ULM 37Similar
Q3 4:57
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+2
82.7%
Aidan Armenta run for 2 yds to the ULM 39Similar
Q3 4:22
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+32
84.2%
Aidan Armenta pass complete to Jake Godfrey for 32 yds to the USM 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:49
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-1
85.7%
James Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the USM 30Similar
Q3 3:05
2ND & 11
OPP 30
0
86.2%
Aidan Armenta pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:59
3RD & 11
OPP 30
+7
85.7%
Taven Curry run for 7 yds to the USM 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 19TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:5764% → 85%
Q3 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+53
64.1%
Aidan Armenta pass complete to Ahmad Hardy for 53 yds to the USM 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:18
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+5
69.1%
Ahmad Hardy run for 5 yds to the USM 17Similar
Q3 0:36
2ND & 5
OPP 17
0
69.2%
Aidan Armenta run for no gain to the USM 17Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 17
+5
68.0%
Southern Miss Penalty, Offsides (Ryan Johnson) to the USM 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+1
69.4%
Ahmad Hardy run for 1 yd to the USM 11Similar
Q4 14:18
2ND & 9
OPP 11
0
72.9%
Aidan Armenta pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:13
3RD & 9
OPP 11
+5
71.6%
Southern Miss Penalty, Offsides (Jalil Clemons) to the USM 6Similar
Q4 14:09
3RD & 4
OPP 6
+6
85.4%
Julian Nixon 6 Yd pass from Aidan Armenta (Max Larson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:2516% → 14%
Q4 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 6
0
83.9%
Ethan Crawford pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:58
2ND & 10
OWN 6
+7
84.2%
Ethan Crawford run for 7 yds to the USM 13Similar
Q4 13:19
3RD & 3
OWN 13
-5
86.8%
Ethan Crawford sacked by Kevontay Wells and Jaylan Ware for a loss of 5 yards to the USM 8Similar
Q4 12:38
4TH & 8
OWN 8
0
86.2%
Bryce Lofton punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Davon Wells at the USM 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 21TD
7 plays · 49 yds · 3:2891% → 99%
Q4 12:32
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
90.6%
James Jones run for 6 yds to the USM 43Similar
Q4 11:51
2ND & 4
OPP 43
+1
90.4%
James Jones run for 1 yd to the USM 42Similar
Q4 11:07
3RD & 3
OPP 42
+22
92.3%
Hunter Herring run for 22 yds to the USM 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:18
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+7
93.4%
Ahmad Hardy run for 7 yds to the USM 13Similar
Q4 10:05
2ND & 3
OPP 13
+7
93.8%
Southern Miss Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Yards) to the USM 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
93.2%
Ahmad Hardy run for 2 yds to the USM 4Similar
Q4 9:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
98.6%
Aidan Armenta 4 Yd Run (Max Larson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 22DOWNS
6 plays · 16 yds · 1:413% → 3%
Q4 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
96.6%
Ethan Crawford pass complete to Tiaquelin Mims for 11 yds to the USM 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
96.6%
Ethan Crawford run for 3 yds to the USM 49Similar
Q4 8:08
2ND & 7
OWN 49
0
96.7%
Ethan Crawford pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:04
3RD & 7
OWN 49
+2
96.7%
Ethan Crawford run for 2 yds to the ULM 49Similar
Q4 7:23
4TH & 5
OPP 49
0
96.9%
Ethan Crawford pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 2:0899% → 99%
Q4 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
98.8%
Taven Curry run for 4 yds to the USM 47Similar
Q4 6:33
2ND & 6
OPP 47
-10
98.8%
(06:33) CURRY, Taven rush to the left for a gain of 7 yards to the USM40, End of Play, clock 06:27. PENALTY ULM Holding on MCBROOM, Que enforced 10 yards from the USM47 to the ULM43 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 6:03
2ND & 16
OWN 43
+7
98.9%
Taven Curry run for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 5:16
3RD & 9
50
0
99.0%
Aidan Armenta pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:10
4TH & 9
50
0
98.9%
Makenzie Ryan punt for 50 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 24DOWNS
5 plays · 14 yds · 1:112% → 2%
Q4 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
97.9%
Ethan Crawford pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:57
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+5
98.0%
Ethan Crawford run for 5 yds to the USM 25Similar
Q4 4:21
3RD & 5
OWN 25
-5
98.1%
Southern Miss Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the USM 20Similar
Q4 4:08
3RD & 10
OWN 20
-1
98.2%
Rodrigues Clark run for a loss of 1 yard to the USM 19Similar
Q4 3:50
4TH & 11
OWN 19
-11
98.2%
Ethan Crawford pass intercepted Wydett Williams Jr. return for 11 yds to the USM 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 25TD
3 plays · 34 yds · 0:5399% → 100%
Q4 3:36
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
99.2%
Ahmad Hardy run for 3 yds to the USM 31Similar
Q4 2:43
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+31
99.8%
Ahmad Hardy 31 Yd Run (Luke Stagg Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 26TD
10 plays · 78 yds · 2:160% → 2%
Q4 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+11
99.6%
Ethan Crawford run for 11 yds to the USM 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
99.6%
Ethan Crawford pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:58
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+6
99.6%
Kenyon Clay run for 6 yds to the USM 39Similar
Q4 1:25
3RD & 4
OWN 39
0
99.6%
Ethan Crawford pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:19
4TH & 4
OWN 39
+11
99.6%
Ethan Crawford pass complete to Larry Simmons for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:09
1ST & 10
50
+35
99.6%
Ethan Crawford pass complete to Larry Simmons for 35 yds to the ULM 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:01
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+9
99.5%
Ethan Crawford run for 9 yds to the ULM 6Similar
Q4 0:36
2ND & 1
OPP 6
+5
99.6%
Kenyon Clay run for 5 yds to the ULM 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
98.2%
Kenyon Clay 1 Yd Run (Connor Gibbs Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 27END OF GAME
1 play · 4 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
99.3%
Chris Smith run for 4 yds to the USM 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 14:09
Julian Nixon 6 Yd pass from Aidan Armenta (Max Larson Kick)
+13.8
TD · Q2 13:19
Aidan Armenta pass complete to James Jones for 36 yds for a TD (Max Larson KICK)
+11.5
FG · Q2 0:02
Connor Gibbs 37 Yd Field Goal
-6.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com