2024 · Week 7 · Oct 10, 2024 · Bridgeforth Stadium
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Win probability · JMU
modelJMU aheadCCU aheadconfidence bandkey playJMU scoreCCU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 1:59 · Emile Sebafundi punt for 41 yds , Yamir Knight returns for 7 yds to the CCU 48
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 4:30: Ethan Vasko pass complete to Jameson Tucker for 40 yds for a TD (Kade Hensley KICK) — CCU win probability +3.5 pts (now 37%) (top driver: CCU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 13:01: Taylor Thompson 25 Yd pass from Alonza Barnett III (Taylor Thompson Pass to Josh Phifer for Two-Point Conversion) — JMU win probability +5.9 pts (now 71%) (top driver: JMU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 11:51: Ethan Vasko pass intercepted Lloyd Summerall III return for 35 yds for a TD (Max Lipinski KICK) — JMU win probability +5.1 pts (now 75%) (top driver: CCU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 6:47: Alonza Barnett III run for 5 yds for a TD (Max Lipinski KICK) — JMU win probability +9.4 pts (now 89%) (top driver: JMU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 10:41: Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Dylan Williams for 3 yds for a TD (Max Lipinski KICK) — JMU win probability +4.0 pts (now 99%) (top driver: JMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
JMU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8CCU made the numbers' call on 10 of 10
- Q1 12:42CCU 4th & 6 at CCU 21, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 31.3% before the snapGo for it31.2%−0.138% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call31.3%average punt
- Q1 1:56JMU 4th & 20 at JMU 26, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 66.1% before the snapGo for it65.4%−0.99% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call66.4%average punt
- Q2 14:21CCU 4th & 10 at CCU 32, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 33.4% before the snapGo for it33.0%−0.929% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call33.9%average punt
- Q2 10:19CCU 4th & 3 at CCU 32, down 15Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.9% before the snapGo for it22.1%−0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call22.2%average punt
- Q2 5:11CCU 4th & 16 at CCU 48, down 22Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.9% before the snapGo for it9.8%−0.116% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call9.9%average punt
- Q2 2:55JMU 4th & 2 at JMU 39, up 22Close callPunted · 91.9% before the snapGo for it92.0%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call91.3%−0.7average punt
- Q2 1:59CCU 4th & 9 at CCU 14, down 22Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.3% before the snapGo for it8.2%−0.230% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call8.3%average punt
- Q2 0:46JMU 4th & 15 at JMU 47, up 22Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.7% before the snapGo for it92.1%−0.517% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call92.7%average punt
- Q3 13:57CCU 4th & 4 at CCU 31, down 22Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.1% before the snapGo for it7.2%−0.648% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.8%average punt
- Q3 10:41JMU 4th & 3 at CCU 3, up 22Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call95.0%44% to convertField goal94.3%−0.693% to makePunt91.2%−3.8average punt
- Q3 7:29JMU 4th & 2 at CCU 35, up 29Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.3%57% to convertField goal99.1%−0.245% to makePunt99.0%−0.3average punt
- Q3 6:30CCU 4th & 8 at CCU 36, down 29Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snapGo for it0.6%−0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.7%average punt
- Q3 3:25JMU 4th & 1 at JMU 46, up 29Close callPunted · 99.5% before the snapGo for it99.6%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.5%−0.1average punt
- Q4 14:40CCU 4th & 22 at CCU 37, down 29Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.28% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q4 12:38JMU 4th & 10 at CCU 46, up 29Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.8%−<0.130% to convertField goal99.7%−0.123% to makePuntTheir call99.8%average punt
- Q4 11:45CCU 4th & 3 at CCU 16, down 29Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.2%−<0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q4 5:14JMU 4th & 7 at CCU 17, up 29Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.8%−<0.135% to convertField goalTheir call99.9%80% to makePunt99.5%−0.4average punt
- Q4 3:09CCU 4th & 6 at CCU 29, down 32Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
JMU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5CCU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 6:51JMU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call70.0%97% to makeGo for two70.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 4:30CCU Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call32.1%97% to makeGo for two32.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 13:01JMU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryClose callWent for two · convertedKick70.7%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call70.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 11:51JMU Touchdown, up 14 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call78.1%97% to makeGo for two78.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 6:47JMU Touchdown, up 21 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call89.4%97% to makeGo for two89.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 10:41JMU Touchdown, up 28 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.2%97% to makeGo for two99.2%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartJMUDrive 1FUMBLE3 plays · 26 yds · 1:1765% → 65%
CCUDrive 2PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 0:5435% → 35%
JMUDrive 3TD11 plays · 67 yds · 5:5165% → 68%
Q1 12:42
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+6
64.7%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Yamir Knight for 6 yds to the JMU 41Similar
Q1 12:42
3RD & 2
OWN 41
+4
64.8%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Omarion Dollison for 4 yds to the JMU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:10
3RD & 9
OPP 23
+14
64.8%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Yamir Knight for 14 yds to the CCU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
67.8%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to George Pettaway for 9 yds for a TD (Max Lipinski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 4TD5 plays · 73 yds · 2:1533% → 37%
JMUDrive 5PUNT6 plays · 1 yds · 2:3464% → 63%
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-10
64.2%
PETTAWAY, George rush to the right for a gain of 11 yards to the JMU47 (POWELL, Juan), out of bounds. PENALTY JMU Holding on PHIFER, Josh enforced 10 yards from the JMU36 to the JMU26 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 4:30
2ND & 20
OWN 26
-2
63.7%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Yamir Knight for a loss of 2 yards to the JMU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 6PUNT7 plays · 21 yds · 2:3537% → 37%
Q1 0:48
3RD & 3
OWN 18
+14
63.3%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Tray Taylor for 14 yds to the CCU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 7TD4 plays · 77 yds · 1:2064% → 71%
Q2 14:21
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+33
63.6%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Taylor Thompson for 33 yds to the CCU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:01
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
71.0%
Taylor Thompson 25 Yd pass from Alonza Barnett III (Taylor Thompson Pass to Josh Phifer for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 8INT TD5 plays · 12 yds · 1:1030% → 25%
Q2 13:01
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+12
70.4%
VASKO, Ethan pass to the left incomplete intended for TUCKER, Jameson thrown to the CCU40. PENALTY JMU Pass Interference on EAGLIN, Justin enforced at the spot of the foul for 12 yards to the CCU37 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 11:51
3RD & 10
OWN 37
-35
75.1%
Ethan Vasko pass intercepted Lloyd Summerall III return for 35 yds for a TD (Max Lipinski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 9PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 1:3225% → 22%
Q2 10:19
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+16
75.9%
Emile Sebafundi punt for 38 yds , Yamir Knight returns for 16 yds to the JMU 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 10TD7 plays · 54 yds · 3:3278% → 89%
Q2 10:19
2ND & 15
OWN 41
+5
77.8%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Yamir Knight for 5 yds to the JMU 46Similar
Q2 10:19
3RD & 10
OWN 46
+19
77.4%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Taji Hudson for 19 yds to the CCU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:04
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+12
79.1%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Yamir Knight for 12 yds to the CCU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:24
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+14
79.9%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Omarion Dollison for 14 yds to the CCU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 11PUNT6 plays · 23 yds · 1:3612% → 11%
JMUDrive 12PUNT6 plays · 25 yds · 2:1690% → 91%
Q2 2:55
4TH & 2
OWN 39
0
91.1%
Ryan Hanson punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Tray Taylor at the CCU 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 13PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 0:5610% → 9%
Q2 1:59
4TH & 9
OWN 14
+7
90.9%
Emile Sebafundi punt for 41 yds , Yamir Knight returns for 7 yds to the CCU 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 14PUNT5 plays · -5 yds · 1:1393% → 92%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 15END OF HALF2 plays · 14 yds · 0:179% → 8%
CCUDrive 16PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 1:038% → 8%
Q3 13:57
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+11
92.3%
Emile Sebafundi punt for 44 yds , Yamir Knight returns for 11 yds to the JMU 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 17TD11 plays · 59 yds · 3:0694% → 99%
Q3 12:57
2ND & 8
OPP 33
+17
93.8%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Omarion Dollison for 17 yds to the CCU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:57
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+8
93.8%
Coastal Carolina Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Courtney Eubanks) to the CCU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:41
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
98.8%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Dylan Williams for 3 yds for a TD (Max Lipinski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 18INT3 plays · -4 yds · 0:211% → 1%
Q3 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
98.9%
Coastal Carolina Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the CCU 21Similar
Q3 10:20
2ND & 14
OWN 21
0
99.0%
Ethan Vasko pass intercepted Terrence Spence return for no gain to the CCU 43Similar
Q3 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-10
98.8%
PETTAWAY, George rush to the left for a loss of 2 yards to the CCU45 (WHITSON, Will;POWELL, Juan). PENALTY JMU Holding on RAMIL, Jesse enforced 10 yards from the CCU43 to the JMU47 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 19DOWNS6 plays · 9 yds · 2:5199% → 99%
Q3 10:20
2ND & 15
OPP 48
-8
98.8%
Alonza Barnett III sacked by Will Whitson for a loss of 8 yards to the JMU 44Similar
Q3 10:20
3RD & 23
OWN 44
-5
98.8%
James Madison Penalty, False Start (Tanner Morris) to the JMU 39Similar
Q3 7:36
3RD & 28
OWN 39
+26
99.0%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Cam Ross for 26 yds to the CCU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 20PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 0:591% → 1%
Q3 6:30
4TH & 8
OWN 36
0
99.4%
Emile Sebafundi punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Yamir Knight at the JMU 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 21PUNT6 plays · 24 yds · 3:0599% → 100%
Q3 3:25
4TH & 1
OWN 46
+16
99.5%
Ryan Hanson punt for 46 yds , Tray Taylor returns for 16 yds to the CCU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 22PUNT9 plays · 13 yds · 3:450% → 0%
Q3 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+9
99.6%
Noah Kim pass complete to Braydon Bennett for 9 yds to the CCU 33Similar
Q3 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-2
99.6%
Noah Kim run for a loss of 2 yards to the CCU 47 Noah Kim fumbled, recovered by CCU Noah Kim N. Kim return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 12
OWN 47
-10
99.7%
Noah Kim run for a loss of 10 yards to the CCU 37 Noah Kim fumbled, recovered by CCU Noah Kim N. Kim return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q4 14:40
4TH & 22
OWN 37
+33
99.8%
Emile Sebafundi punt for 42 yds , Yamir Knight returns for 33 yds to the CCU 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 23PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 2:02100% → 100%
Q4 14:40
3RD & 9
OPP 45
+4
99.7%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Tyler Purdy for 4 yds to the CCU 41Similar
Q4 14:40
4TH & 5
OPP 41
-5
99.6%
James Madison Penalty, Delay Of Game (Alonza Barnett III) to the CCU 46Similar
Q4 12:38
4TH & 10
OPP 46
0
99.7%
Ryan Hanson punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Tray Taylor at the CCU 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 24PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 0:530% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 25FG10 plays · 41 yds · 6:31100% → 100%
Q4 11:45
3RD & 3
OPP 13
-5
99.8%
QB Keeper ATKINS, Billy rush to the left for a gain of 10 yards to the CCU3 (WOODS, Myles), out of bounds. PENALTY Before the snap, JMU Illegal Shift enforced 5 yards from the CCU13 to the CCU18. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 26PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 2:050% → 0%
Q4 3:09
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
100.0%
Emile Sebafundi punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Yamir Knight at the JMU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 27END OF GAME6 plays · 6 yds · 3:09100% → 100%
Q4 0:00
2ND & 12
OWN 38
-2
100.0%
Kneel down by KENDALL, Blake at JMU36 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 6:47
Alonza Barnett III run for 5 yds for a TD (Max Lipinski KICK)
+9.4
TD · Q2 13:01
Taylor Thompson 25 Yd pass from Alonza Barnett III (Taylor Thompson Pass to Josh Phifer for Two-Point Conversion)
+5.9
TD · Q2 11:51
Ethan Vasko pass intercepted Lloyd Summerall III return for 35 yds for a TD (Max Lipinski KICK)
+5.1