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UL

Louisiana 23 at Southern Miss 13

USM
2024 · Week 6 · Oct 5, 2024 · M. M. Roberts Stadium
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Win probability · USM
modelUSM aheadUL aheadconfidence bandkey playUSM scoreUL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 12:44 · Bryce Lofton punt for 47 yds , Jacob Bernard returns for 1 yd to the UL 46
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+39.0+19.50−19.5−39.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 121Pregame prior−10.2Home team on offense−15.7Garbage-time factor−5.4Score differential−3.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:19: Kenyon Clay run for 1 yd for a TD (Connor Gibbs KICK) — USM win probability +3.7 pts (now 20%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  2. TD · Q2 1:40: Kenyon Clay run for 5 yds for a TD (Connor Gibbs PAT MISSED) — USM win probability +7.4 pts (now 17%) (top driver: Offense has -8 timeouts left).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q3 14:40: Rodrigues Clark run for 2 yds to the USM 27 — USM win probability +11.5 pts (now 25%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 2:07: Kenneth Almendares 30 yd FG GOOD — UL win probability +3.2 pts (now 82%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 5:29: Kenneth Almendares 19 yd FG GOOD — UL win probability +3.2 pts (now 92%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USM made the numbers' call on 7 of 8UL made the numbers' call on 5 of 9
  1. Q1 9:47UL 4th & 4 at USM 4, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 83.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.1%−<0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    82.6%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:08USM 4th & 22 at USM 18, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.9%−0.3
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:27UL 4th & 15 at UL 42, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.2%−0.5
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:48USM 4th & 7 at USM 28, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.2%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:51UL 4th & 8 at USM 42, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 79.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    79.2%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    78.9%−0.3
    30% to make
    Punt
    79.2%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:06USM 4th & 9 at USM 26, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.5%−0.5
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:09UL 4th & 7 at USM 47, up 10
    Close callPunted · 81.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.9%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.8%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 10:50USM 4th & 9 at midfield, down 4
    Close callWent for it · 27.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.7%−0.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    28.2%
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:28USM 4th & 19 at USM 40, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.5%−3.0
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:43UL 4th & 1 at UL 32, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 70.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    72.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    70.3%−1.8
    average punt
  11. Q3 2:07UL 4th & 4 at USM 13, up 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 74.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.1%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    73.5%−0.6
    85% to make
    Punt
    62.2%−11.8
    average punt
  12. Q3 1:35USM 4th & 15 at USM 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.7%−3.0
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.7%
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:17UL 4th & 15 at USM 48, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.4%−2.0
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.3%
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:44USM 4th & 6 at USM 8, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.2%−0.6
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.8%
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:29UL 4th & 2 at USM 2, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 87.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.5%−2.1
    94% to make
    Punt
    76.0%−10.5
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:10USM 4th & 12 at USM 23, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.1%−1.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.3%
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:11UL 4th & 7 at UL 41, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.6%−0.5
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USM made the numbers' call on 2 of 2UL made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 13:26UL Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:19USM Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:51UL Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:40USM Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    25.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ULDrive 1FG
11 plays · 75 yds · 5:0888% → 86%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
12.5%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Harvey Broussard for 3 yds to the UL 24Similar
Q1 14:20
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+13
12.7%
Zylan Perry run for 13 yds to the UL 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:57
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
12.9%
Zylan Perry run for 5 yds to the UL 42Similar
Q1 13:21
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+2
13.1%
Ben Wooldridge run for 2 yds to the UL 44Similar
Q1 12:47
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+10
13.3%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Terrance Carter for 10 yds to the USM 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:08
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+36
13.6%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Harvey Broussard for 36 yds to the USM 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
13.8%
Ben Wooldridge pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
13.8%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Caden Jensen for 3 yds to the USM 7Similar
Q1 10:35
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
14.2%
Bill Davis run for 3 yds to the USM 4Similar
Q1 9:47
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
14.5%
Kenneth Almendares 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · -12 yds · 1:3315% → 15%
Q1 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
14.7%
Rodrigues Clark run for 1 yd to the USM 31Similar
Q1 9:04
2ND & 9
OWN 31
-3
14.9%
Tate Rodemaker run for a loss of 3 yards to the USM 28Similar
Q1 8:23
3RD & 12
OWN 28
-10
15.1%
Tate Rodemaker sacked for a loss of 10 yards to the USM 18 TEAM fumbled, recovered by USM , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 8:08
4TH & 22
OWN 18
+2
15.1%
Bryce Lofton punt for 52 yds , Jacob Bernard returns for 2 yds to the UL 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 10 yds · 3:3585% → 83%
Q1 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
15.3%
Zylan Perry run for 7 yds to the UL 39Similar
Q1 7:29
2ND & 3
OWN 39
+8
15.4%
Zylan Perry run for 8 yds to the UL 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
15.6%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Harvey Broussard for 7 yds to the USM 46Similar
Q1 6:29
2ND & 3
OPP 46
+1
15.4%
Zylan Perry run for 1 yd to the USM 45Similar
Q1 5:46
3RD & 2
OPP 45
-5
15.8%
(05:46) PERRY, Zylan rush up the middle for a gain of 3 yards to the USM42 (LEWIS, Brodarius), clock 05:45. PENALTY Before the snap, LA False Start on BURTON, Landon enforced 5 yards from the USM45 to the LA50. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 4:52
3RD & 7
50
-8
16.3%
Ben Wooldridge sacked by Chris Jones for a loss of 8 yards to the UL 42Similar
Q1 4:27
4TH & 15
OWN 42
0
17.2%
Nathan Torney punt for 33 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 1:3716% → 16%
Q1 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
15.6%
Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Larry Simmons for a loss of 2 yards to the USM 23Similar
Q1 3:51
2ND & 12
OWN 23
-5
15.8%
Tate Rodemaker sacked by Cameron Whitfield for a loss of 5 yards to the USM 18Similar
Q1 3:15
3RD & 17
OWN 18
+10
15.7%
Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Rodrigues Clark for 10 yds to the USM 28Similar
Q1 2:48
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+11
15.6%
Bryce Lofton punt for 49 yds , Jacob Bernard returns for 11 yds to the UL 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 5TD
10 plays · 66 yds · 4:1084% → 83%
Q1 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
16.3%
Bill Davis run for 6 yds to the UL 40Similar
Q1 2:01
2ND & 4
OWN 40
0
16.2%
Ben Wooldridge pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:57
3RD & 4
OWN 40
+6
16.3%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Terrance Carter for 6 yds to the UL 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+10
16.3%
Lance LeGendre run for 10 yds to the USM 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:46
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
16.4%
Ben Wooldridge pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:41
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+2
16.4%
Bill Davis run for 2 yds to the USM 42Similar
Q2 14:58
3RD & 8
OPP 42
0
16.5%
Ben Wooldridge pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:51
4TH & 8
OPP 42
+21
17.2%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Terrance Carter for 21 yds to the USM 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:14
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+6
16.1%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Bill Davis for 6 yds to the USM 15Similar
Q2 13:26
2ND & 4
OPP 15
+15
17.4%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Lance LeGendre for 15 yds for a TD (Kenneth Almendares KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 6TD
6 plays · 80 yds · 1:5915% → 20%
Q2 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
15.1%
Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Davis Dalton for 9 yds to the USM 29Similar
Q2 12:53
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+21
15.4%
Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Dannis Jackson for 21 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:35
1ST & 10
50
+18
15.9%
Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Chandler Pittman for 3 yds to the UL 47 for a 1ST down Louisiana Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the UL 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:21
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+31
16.5%
Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Kenyon Clay for 31 yds to the UL 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
16.0%
Kenyon Clay run for no gain to the UL 1Similar
Q2 11:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
19.8%
Kenyon Clay run for 1 yd for a TD (Connor Gibbs KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 7TD
5 plays · 67 yds · 2:2083% → 81%
Q2 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
16.8%
Dre'lyn Washington run for 7 yds to the UL 40Similar
Q2 10:36
2ND & 3
OWN 40
+30
18.0%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Jacob Bernard for 30 yds to the USM 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
17.3%
Dre'lyn Washington run for 3 yds to the USM 27Similar
Q2 9:18
2ND & 7
OPP 27
+6
18.3%
Dre'lyn Washington run for 6 yds to the USM 21Similar
Q2 8:51
3RD & 1
OPP 21
+21
18.9%
Dre'lyn Washington run for 21 yds for a TD (Kenneth Almendares KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:4515% → 17%
Q2 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-17
15.3%
Southern Miss Penalty, Personal Foul (-17 Yards) to the USM 16Similar
Q2 8:29
2ND & 19
OWN 16
+1
15.3%
Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Larry Simmons for 1 yd to the USM 17Similar
Q2 7:44
3RD & 18
OWN 17
+9
16.7%
Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Kyirin Heath for 9 yds to the USM 26Similar
Q2 7:06
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+6
16.7%
Bryce Lofton punt for 44 yds , Jacob Bernard returns for 6 yds to the UL 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 9PUNT
10 plays · 17 yds · 2:4982% → 82%
Q2 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
18.5%
Zylan Perry run for 4 yds to the UL 40Similar
Q2 6:17
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+2
19.7%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Caden Jensen for 2 yds to the UL 42Similar
Q2 5:31
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+8
20.5%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Caden Jensen for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:51
1ST & 10
50
0
20.4%
Ben Wooldridge pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:43
2ND & 10
50
0
20.6%
Ben Wooldridge pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:39
3RD & 10
50
+8
21.0%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Robert Williams for 8 yds to the USM 42Similar
Q2 4:12
4TH & 2
OPP 42
-5
18.6%
Louisiana Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the USM 47Similar
Q2 4:09
4TH & 7
OPP 47
0
18.5%
Nathan Torney punt for 29 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 10TD
11 plays · 82 yds · 2:2516% → 17%
Q2 4:05
1ST & 9
OWN 18
+6
15.7%
Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Davis Dalton for 6 yds to the USM 24Similar
Q2 3:29
2ND & 3
OWN 24
+17
15.6%
Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Kyirin Heath for 17 yds to the USM 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+27
16.4%
Rodrigues Clark run for 27 yds to the UL 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:16
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
17.7%
Tate Rodemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:08
2ND & 10
OPP 32
0
13.1%
Tate Rodemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:04
3RD & 10
OPP 32
+26
12.4%
Rodrigues Clark run for 26 yds to the UL 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
9.6%
Rodrigues Clark run for 1 yd to the UL 5Similar
Q2 1:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
17.4%
Kenyon Clay run for 5 yds for a TD (Connor Gibbs PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 11END OF HALF
7 plays · 5 yds · 1:1777% → 87%
Q2 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-10
22.9%
Louisiana Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the UL 25Similar
Q2 1:05
1ST & 20
OWN 25
+4
23.6%
Zylan Perry run for 4 yds to the UL 29Similar
Q2 0:30
2ND & 16
OWN 29
+17
24.2%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Lance LeGendre for 17 yds to the UL 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
13.6%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Zylan Perry for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 0:14
2ND & 6
50
-10
13.4%
Louisiana Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Ben Wooldridge) to the UL 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 12PUNT
9 plays · 15 yds · 4:1225% → 25%
Q3 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
25.0%
Rodrigues Clark run for 2 yds to the USM 27Similar
Q3 14:28
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+12
25.2%
Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Larry Simmons for 12 yds to the USM 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
26.2%
Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Larry Simmons for 5 yds to the USM 44Similar
Q3 13:24
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+5
28.0%
Rodrigues Clark run for 5 yds to the USM 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-1
28.2%
Rodrigues Clark run for a loss of 1 yard to the USM 48Similar
Q3 12:09
2ND & 11
OWN 48
-2
27.2%
Tate Rodemaker sacked by Cameron Whitfield for a loss of 2 yards to the USM 46Similar
Q3 11:29
3RD & 13
OWN 46
+4
25.7%
Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Javieon Butler for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 10:50
4TH & 9
50
+18
26.3%
Bryce Lofton run for 28 yds to the USM 22 Southern Miss Penalty, Offensive Holding (Wil Saxton) to the USM 40Similar
Q3 10:28
4TH & 19
OWN 40
0
25.3%
Bryce Lofton punt for 49 yds, downed at the UL 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 13FG
17 plays · 76 yds · 8:1375% → 82%
Q3 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+12
25.5%
Bill Davis run for 12 yds to the UL 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
25.6%
Bill Davis run for 2 yds to the UL 25Similar
Q3 9:10
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+7
25.9%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Terrance Carter for 7 yds to the UL 32Similar
Q3 8:30
3RD & 1
OWN 32
0
25.1%
Bill Davis run for no gain to the UL 32Similar
Q3 7:43
4TH & 1
OWN 32
+3
26.9%
Bill Davis run for 3 yds to the UL 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
24.4%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Dre'lyn Washington for 9 yds to the UL 44Similar
Q3 6:36
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+5
22.9%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Terrance Carter for 5 yds to the UL 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
23.2%
Dre'lyn Washington run for 4 yds to the USM 47Similar
Q3 5:12
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+2
23.4%
Ben Wooldridge run for 2 yds to the USM 45Similar
Q3 4:30
3RD & 4
OPP 45
+12
22.1%
Dre'lyn Washington run for 12 yds to the USM 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:43
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+14
20.8%
Dre'lyn Washington run for 14 yds to the USM 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:02
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+6
20.3%
Ben Wooldridge run for 6 yds to the USM 13Similar
Q3 2:19
2ND & 4
OPP 13
0
19.9%
Ben Wooldridge pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:16
3RD & 4
OPP 13
0
21.2%
Ben Wooldridge pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:07
4TH & 4
OPP 13
+30
17.6%
Kenneth Almendares 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 0:3219% → 18%
Q3 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
18.6%
Tate Rodemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:02
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
18.4%
Tate Rodemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:54
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-5
17.9%
(01:54) RODEMAKER, Tate pass deep up the middle complete for 20 yards to HEATH, Kyirin caught at the USM45 and advanced to the USM45 (LEWIS, Tyrone), clock 01:45. PENALTY USM Illegal Touch-Pass on HEATH, Kyirin enforced 5 yards from the USM25 to the USM20, penalty results in a loss of down [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 1:35
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
17.5%
Bryce Lofton punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jacob Bernard at the UL 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 10 yds · 2:1183% → 82%
Q3 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+15
16.9%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Terrance Carter for 15 yds to the USM 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:51
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-1
16.4%
Zylan Perry run for a loss of 1 yard to the USM 44Similar
Q3 0:10
2ND & 11
OPP 44
+4
16.4%
Zylan Perry run for 4 yds to the USM 40Similar
Q4 14:58
3RD & 7
OPP 40
-8
16.8%
Ben Wooldridge sacked by Jalil Clemons for a loss of 8 yards to the USM 48Similar
Q4 14:17
4TH & 15
OPP 48
0
18.5%
Nathan Torney punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Tiaquelin Mims at the USM 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:2618% → 16%
Q4 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+1
18.1%
Kenyon Clay run for 1 yd to the USM 5Similar
Q4 13:36
2ND & 9
OWN 5
+3
17.1%
Kenyon Clay run for 3 yds to the USM 8Similar
Q4 12:50
3RD & 6
OWN 8
0
16.6%
Tate Rodemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:44
4TH & 6
OWN 8
+1
16.3%
Bryce Lofton punt for 47 yds , Jacob Bernard returns for 1 yd to the UL 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 17FG
13 plays · 52 yds · 7:0586% → 92%
Q4 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
13.6%
Dre'lyn Washington run for 5 yds to the USM 49Similar
Q4 11:53
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+3
13.2%
Dre'lyn Washington run for 3 yds to the USM 46Similar
Q4 11:11
3RD & 2
OPP 46
+6
12.9%
Ben Wooldridge run for 6 yds to the USM 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
12.7%
Bill Davis run for 4 yds to the USM 36Similar
Q4 9:48
2ND & 6
OPP 36
+3
11.1%
Bill Davis run for 3 yds to the USM 33Similar
Q4 9:06
3RD & 3
OPP 33
+10
10.9%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Jaydon Johnson for 10 yds to the USM 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:27
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+16
10.9%
Dre'lyn Washington run for 16 yds to the USM 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-2
10.8%
Dre'lyn Washington run for a loss of 2 yards to the USM 9Similar
Q4 6:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+7
10.2%
Ben Wooldridge run for 7 yds to the USM 2Similar
Q4 6:07
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
9.8%
Bill Davis run for no gain to the USM 2Similar
Q4 5:29
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+19
8.1%
Kenneth Almendares 19 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:165% → 5%
Q4 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-8
4.7%
Tate Rodemaker sacked for a loss of 8 yards to the USM 17 Tate Rodemaker fumbled, recovered by USM Gabe Cavazos Jr. , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 4:37
2ND & 18
OWN 17
+6
3.8%
Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Chandler Pittman for 6 yds to the USM 23Similar
Q4 4:16
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
4.0%
Tate Rodemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:10
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
4.7%
Bryce Lofton punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Jacob Bernard at the UL 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 19PUNT
11 plays · 14 yds · 2:5391% → 97%
Q4 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
9.3%
Bill Davis run for 6 yds to the UL 33Similar
Q4 3:55
2ND & 4
OWN 33
+5
8.9%
Bill Davis run for 5 yds to the UL 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
7.0%
Bill Davis run for no gain to the UL 38Similar
Q4 2:20
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+1
6.0%
Bill Davis run for 1 yd to the UL 39Similar
Q4 1:58
3RD & 9
OWN 39
+2
3.6%
Dre'lyn Washington run for 2 yds to the UL 41Similar
Q4 1:11
4TH & 7
OWN 41
0
2.6%
Nathan Torney punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Tiaquelin Mims at the USM 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 20FUMBLE
1 play · -6 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-6
0.7%
Tate Rodemaker sacked for a loss of 6 yards to the USM 18 Tate Rodemaker fumbled, recovered by UL Jordan Lawson , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 21END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:2398% → 98%
Q4 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-1
2.3%
(00:53) [NHSG] Kneel down by WOOLDRIDGE, Ben at USM19 (team loss of 1), clock 00:39.Similar
Q4 0:30
2ND & 11
OPP 19
-1
2.4%
(00:30) [NHSG] Kneel down by WOOLDRIDGE, Ben at USM20 (team loss of 1), clock 00:26.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q3 14:40
Rodrigues Clark run for 2 yds to the USM 27
+11.5
TD · Q2 1:40
Kenyon Clay run for 5 yds for a TD (Connor Gibbs PAT MISSED)
+7.4
TD · Q2 11:19
Kenyon Clay run for 1 yd for a TD (Connor Gibbs KICK)
+3.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com