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JMU

James Madison 19 at UL Monroe 21

ULM
2024 · Week 6 · Oct 5, 2024 · Malone Stadium
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Win probability · ULM
modelULM aheadJMU aheadconfidence bandkey playULM scoreJMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 0:08 · Alonza Barnett III sacked by Carl Glass Jr. for a loss of 13 yards to the ULM 35
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+35.5+17.80−17.8−35.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 36Pregame prior−29.7Home team on offense−4.4Score differential−2.3Garbage-time factor−1.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.9Time remaining+0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:45: Ahmad Hardy run for 38 yds for a TD (Max Larson KICK) — ULM win probability +6.7 pts (now 24%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:31: Daniel Knudsen 82 Yd Fumble Return (Max Larson Kick) — ULM win probability +10.8 pts (now 32%) (top driver: JMU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 10:30: Aidan Armenta pass complete to Jake Godfrey for 12 yds for a TD (Max Larson KICK) — ULM win probability +30.2 pts (now 87%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 4:04: Tyler Purdy run for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — JMU win probability +25.6 pts (now 44%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 4:00: Timeout UL Monroe, clock 04:00 — ULM win probability +20.6 pts (now 76%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ULM made the numbers' call on 6 of 8JMU made the numbers' call on 9 of 9
  1. Q1 8:56JMU 4th & 13 at ULM 30, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 83.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.8%−0.2
    20% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.0%
    56% to make
    Punt
    82.8%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:31ULM 4th & 14 at JMU 40, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.2%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    17.3%−0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    17.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:08JMU 4th & 4 at ULM 22, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 81.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    81.6%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    81.5%−0.1
    72% to make
    Punt
    79.8%−1.8
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:52ULM 4th & 8 at JMU 39, down 10
    Close callPunted · 18.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.2%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    18.0%−0.2
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    18.1%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:55JMU 4th & 10 at JMU 3, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.4%−1.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:18ULM 4th & 1 at JMU 41, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    17.4%−1.4
    32% to make
    Punt
    17.6%−1.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:00JMU 4th & 12 at JMU 46, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.8%−0.7
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.4%
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:18ULM 4th & 12 at JMU 43, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.7%−0.9
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    38.6%−1.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    39.6%
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:56JMU 4th & 8 at JMU 31, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.5%−2.9
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:25ULM 4th & 9 at ULM 46, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.4%−1.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.0%
    average punt
  11. Q3 2:46JMU 4th & 4 at ULM 37, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 54.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    53.0%−2.8
    40% to make
    Punt
    52.6%−3.3
    average punt
  12. Q3 0:37ULM 4th & 1 at ULM 46, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 50.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    51.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    47.5%−4.4
    average punt
  13. Q4 7:41JMU 4th & 1 at ULM 45, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    11.3%−7.1
    25% to make
    Punt
    12.5%−5.9
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:12ULM 4th & 8 at midfield, up 2
    Close callPunted · 72.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.9%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.3%−0.6
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:44JMU 4th & 10 at JMU 34, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.5%
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    20.3%−1.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:38ULM 4th & 22 at JMU 46, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.6%−5.2
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    86.7%−0.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    86.8%
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:07JMU 4th & 10 at JMU 28, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.4%
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    8.8%−2.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ULM made the numbers' call on 3 of 3JMU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 12:42JMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 5:45ULM Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:31ULM Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 10:30ULM Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.3%−0.6
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 4:04JMU Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Numbers favored kick by 1.3 ptsWent for two · failed
    Kick
    36.8%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    35.5%−1.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
JMUDrive 1TD
6 plays · 67 yds · 2:1285% → 85%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
14.9%
Alonza Barnett III run for 4 yds to the JMU 37Similar
Q1 14:18
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+5
15.2%
JC Evans run for 5 yds to the JMU 42Similar
Q1 13:45
3RD & 1
OWN 42
+2
15.4%
Tyler Purdy run for 2 yds to the JMU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+29
15.6%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Yamir Knight for 29 yds to the ULM 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:57
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
15.7%
Alonza Barnett III pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:42
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+27
15.4%
Alonza Barnett III run for 27 yds for a TD (Noe Ruelas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 2INT
7 plays · 23 yds · 2:0916% → 16%
Q1 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
15.5%
Ahmad Hardy run for a loss of 1 yard to the ULM 24Similar
Q1 12:11
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+7
15.6%
Ahmad Hardy run for 7 yds to the ULM 31Similar
Q1 11:26
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+5
15.9%
Aidan Armenta pass complete to Jake Godfrey for 5 yds to the ULM 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+12
16.1%
(10:45) ARMENTA, Aidan pass up the middle incomplete intended for COLE, Artis thrown to the ULM49, clock 10:44. PENALTY JMU Pass Interference on TAYLOR, Jordan enforced at the spot of the foul for 12 yards to the ULM48 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
16.3%
Aidan Armenta pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:36
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
16.3%
Aidan Armenta pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:33
3RD & 10
OWN 48
-43
16.1%
Aidan Armenta pass intercepted Jacob Thomas return for 43 yds to the ULM 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 3FG
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:2384% → 84%
Q1 10:19
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
15.8%
George Pettaway run for 3 yds to the ULM 24Similar
Q1 9:45
2ND & 7
OPP 24
0
16.0%
Alonza Barnett III pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:43
3RD & 7
OPP 24
-6
16.1%
Alonza Barnett III sacked by Tristan Shorter for a loss of 6 yards to the ULM 30Similar
Q1 8:56
4TH & 13
OPP 30
+48
16.1%
Noe Ruelas 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 4PUNT
12 plays · 35 yds · 5:3116% → 18%
Q1 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
16.3%
James Jones run for 4 yds to the ULM 29Similar
Q1 8:21
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
16.5%
James Jones run for 3 yds to the ULM 32Similar
Q1 7:42
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+5
16.6%
Aidan Armenta pass complete to Amir McGruder for 5 yds to the ULM 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+16
16.8%
Aidan Armenta pass complete to Artis Cole for 16 yds to the JMU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:27
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
17.3%
James Jones run for 5 yds to the JMU 42Similar
Q1 5:47
2ND & 5
OPP 42
+2
17.6%
James Jones run for 2 yds to the JMU 40Similar
Q1 5:04
3RD & 3
OPP 40
+4
17.7%
Taven Curry run for 4 yds to the JMU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:26
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-4
18.0%
Aidan Armenta sacked by Khairi Manns for a loss of 4 yards to the JMU 40Similar
Q1 3:41
2ND & 14
OPP 40
0
17.4%
Aidan Armenta pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:37
3RD & 14
OPP 40
0
17.2%
Aidan Armenta pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:31
4TH & 14
OPP 40
0
16.8%
Makenzie Ryan punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Yamir Knight at the JMU 7Similar
Q1 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+5
17.6%
UL Monroe Penalty, Offsides (5 Yards) to the JMU 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 5DOWNS
7 plays · 58 yds · 3:1783% → 82%
Q1 3:25
1ST & 5
OWN 12
+39
17.4%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Omarion Dollison for 39 yds to the ULM 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:56
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+8
17.0%
Tyler Purdy run for 8 yds to the ULM 41Similar
Q1 2:18
2ND & 2
OPP 41
+13
16.9%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Yamir Knight for 13 yds to the ULM 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:37
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
17.0%
George Pettaway run for 2 yds to the ULM 26Similar
Q1 0:52
2ND & 8
OPP 26
+4
17.1%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Logan Kyle for 4 yds to the ULM 22Similar
Q1 0:11
3RD & 4
OPP 22
0
17.4%
Alonza Barnett III pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:08
4TH & 4
OPP 22
-13
17.8%
Alonza Barnett III sacked by Carl Glass Jr. for a loss of 13 yards to the ULM 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 6PUNT
14 plays · 26 yds · 5:1918% → 19%
Q1 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-15
17.5%
UL Monroe Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Davon Wells) to the ULM 20Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
17.3%
Aidan Armenta pass complete to Julian Nixon for 9 yds to the ULM 29Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+4
17.7%
Ahmad Hardy run for 4 yds to the ULM 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
17.5%
Aidan Armenta run for 3 yds to the ULM 36Similar
Q2 13:33
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+11
17.5%
Aidan Armenta pass complete to Davon Wells for 11 yds to the ULM 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
18.1%
Ahmad Hardy run for 5 yds to the JMU 48Similar
Q2 12:10
2ND & 5
OPP 48
-3
18.3%
Ahmad Hardy run for a loss of 3 yards to the ULM 49Similar
Q2 11:27
3RD & 8
OWN 49
+10
17.6%
Aidan Armenta pass complete to Javon Campbell for 10 yds to the JMU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
18.8%
Aidan Armenta pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:44
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+2
18.7%
Ahmad Hardy run for 2 yds to the JMU 39Similar
Q2 9:59
3RD & 8
OPP 39
0
18.5%
Aidan Armenta pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:52
4TH & 8
OPP 39
0
17.8%
Makenzie Ryan punt for 36 yds, downed at the JMU 3Similar
Q2 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 3
-1
18.8%
James Madison Penalty, False Start (Yards) to the JMU 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:4881% → 80%
Q2 9:43
1ST & 11
OWN 2
+1
18.8%
Alonza Barnett III run for 1 yd to the JMU 3Similar
Q2 9:03
2ND & 10
OWN 3
0
19.1%
Alonza Barnett III pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:56
3RD & 10
OWN 3
0
19.4%
Alonza Barnett III pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:55
4TH & 10
OWN 3
0
19.6%
Ryan Hanson punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Davon Wells at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 8TD
7 plays · 50 yds · 3:0418% → 24%
Q2 8:49
1ST & 10
50
0
18.2%
Aidan Armenta pass complete to Davon Wells for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 8:38
2ND & 10
50
+5
18.0%
Aidan Armenta pass complete to Tyler Griffin for 5 yds to the JMU 45Similar
Q2 7:55
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+4
18.2%
Aidan Armenta pass complete to Jake Godfrey for 4 yds to the JMU 41Similar
Q2 7:18
4TH & 1
OPP 41
+2
16.7%
Aidan Armenta pass complete to Rylan Green for 2 yds to the JMU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:37
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
17.5%
James Jones run for 1 yd to the JMU 38Similar
Q2 5:45
2ND & 9
OPP 38
+38
24.2%
Ahmad Hardy run for 38 yds for a TD (Max Larson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 9PUNT
12 plays · 21 yds · 3:4576% → 74%
Q2 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
23.8%
George Pettaway run for 3 yds to the JMU 28Similar
Q2 5:10
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+10
23.8%
Alonza Barnett III run for 10 yds to the JMU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
23.2%
Alonza Barnett III pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:38
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+2
23.4%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Omarion Dollison for 2 yds to the JMU 40Similar
Q2 4:03
3RD & 8
OWN 40
+8
24.0%
Alonza Barnett III run for 8 yds to the JMU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
23.2%
George Pettaway run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 3:02
2ND & 8
50
-11
23.3%
Alonza Barnett III sacked by Davin Anderson for a loss of 11 yards to the JMU 39Similar
Q2 2:16
3RD & 19
OWN 39
+17
25.5%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Logan Kyle for 17 yds to the ULM 44Similar
Q2 2:00
4TH & 2
OPP 44
-5
23.8%
James Madison Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the ULM 49Similar
Q2 2:00
4TH & 7
OPP 49
-5
24.9%
James Madison Penalty, Delay Of Game (Taurus Jones) to the JMU 46Similar
Q2 2:00
4TH & 12
OWN 46
+34
26.2%
Ryan Hanson punt for 34 yds , Davon Wells returns for no gain to the ULM 20 , returns for no gain to the ULM 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 10FUMBLE RETURN TD
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:1978% → 68%
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
21.6%
Alonza Barnett III pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:31
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+82
32.4%
Daniel Knudsen 82 Yd Fumble Return (Max Larson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 11FG
13 plays · 63 yds · 1:2262% → 70%
Q2 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+11
37.9%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Cam Ross for 11 yds to the JMU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
37.7%
Alonza Barnett III pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:10
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+16
38.4%
Wayne Knight run for 16 yds to the JMU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
36.3%
Alonza Barnett III pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:54
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+11
36.9%
George Pettaway run for 11 yds to the ULM 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:41
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-5
34.6%
James Madison Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the JMU 49Similar
Q2 0:40
1ST & 15
OWN 49
+9
37.1%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Taylor Thompson for 9 yds to the ULM 42Similar
Q2 0:36
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+11
34.6%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to George Pettaway for 11 yds to the ULM 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
33.2%
Alonza Barnett III pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:16
2ND & 10
OPP 31
0
33.4%
Alonza Barnett III pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:10
3RD & 10
OPP 31
+15
35.3%
(00:10) BARNETT III, Alonza pass to the left incomplete intended for ROSS, Cam thrown to the ULM20, clock 00:06. PENALTY ULM Roughing the Passer on ANDERSON, Davin enforced 15 yards from the ULM31 to the ULM16 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-5
33.0%
James Madison Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the ULM 21Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 15
OPP 21
+39
30.2%
Noe Ruelas 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 12PUNT
11 plays · 32 yds · 3:4237% → 38%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
36.8%
Aidan Armenta pass complete to Jake Godfrey for 17 yds to the ULM 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:17
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
39.6%
Ahmad Hardy run for 3 yds to the ULM 45Similar
Q3 13:41
2ND & 7
OWN 45
-1
40.6%
Aidan Armenta pass complete to Nate Sullivan Jr. for a loss of 1 yard to the ULM 44Similar
Q3 12:58
3RD & 8
OWN 44
+5
38.8%
James Madison Penalty, Offsides (Eric O'Neill) to the ULM 49Similar
Q3 12:37
3RD & 3
OWN 49
+10
40.6%
Ahmad Hardy run for 10 yds to the JMU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:52
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-2
42.8%
James Jones run for a loss of 2 yards to the JMU 43Similar
Q3 11:26
2ND & 12
OPP 43
0
41.8%
Aidan Armenta pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:20
3RD & 12
OPP 43
0
40.3%
Aidan Armenta pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:18
4TH & 12
OPP 43
0
38.1%
Makenzie Ryan punt for 31 yds, downed at the JMU 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 13PUNT
9 plays · 19 yds · 2:1761% → 58%
Q3 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+7
38.6%
George Pettaway run for 7 yds to the JMU 19Similar
Q3 10:48
2ND & 3
OWN 19
+10
38.4%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Yamir Knight for 10 yds to the JMU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
38.3%
George Pettaway run for 3 yds to the JMU 32Similar
Q3 9:50
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+4
38.7%
George Pettaway run for 4 yds to the JMU 36Similar
Q3 9:14
3RD & 3
OWN 36
-5
39.0%
James Madison Penalty, Illegal Snap on MORRIS, Tanner enforced (Tanner Morris) to the JMU 31Similar
Q3 9:03
3RD & 8
OWN 31
0
41.2%
Alonza Barnett III pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:56
4TH & 8
OWN 31
0
42.6%
Ryan Hanson punt for 24 ydsSimilar
Q3 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-15
42.5%
(08:50) ARMENTA, Aidan pass deep to the right complete for 55 yards to WELLS, Davon caught at the JMU18 and advanced to the JMU0, TOUCHDOWN ULM, score nullified by penalty, clock 08:40 (Play was confirmed after review). PENALTY ULM Pass Interference on GODFREY, Jake enforced 15 yards to the ULM30 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:1539% → 40%
Q3 8:40
1ST & 25
OWN 30
0
39.3%
Aidan Armenta pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:34
2ND & 25
OWN 30
+1
39.0%
James Jones run for 1 yd to the ULM 31Similar
Q3 8:05
3RD & 24
OWN 31
+15
38.1%
Aidan Armenta pass complete to Jake Godfrey for 15 yds to the ULM 46Similar
Q3 7:25
4TH & 9
OWN 46
+4
39.5%
Makenzie Ryan punt for 41 yds , Yamir Knight returns for 4 yds to the JMU 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 15DOWNS
10 plays · 46 yds · 4:3159% → 58%
Q3 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+15
41.5%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Yamir Knight for 15 yds to the JMU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
40.8%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Logan Kyle for 9 yds to the JMU 41Similar
Q3 6:16
2ND & 1
OWN 41
+4
39.0%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Tyler Purdy for 4 yds to the JMU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
39.6%
Alonza Barnett III pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:36
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+9
40.7%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Cam Ross for 9 yds to the ULM 46Similar
Q3 4:52
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+3
39.1%
George Pettaway run for 3 yds to the ULM 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:18
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
38.0%
Alonza Barnett III pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:11
2ND & 10
OPP 43
-2
38.2%
Alonza Barnett III run for a loss of 2 yards to the ULM 45Similar
Q3 3:28
3RD & 12
OPP 45
+8
41.4%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Taylor Thompson for 8 yds to the ULM 37Similar
Q3 2:46
4TH & 4
OPP 37
0
41.6%
Alonza Barnett III pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 16TD
14 plays · 63 yds · 7:1347% → 87%
Q3 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
46.7%
Ahmad Hardy run for 2 yds to the ULM 39Similar
Q3 2:05
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+3
48.4%
Aidan Armenta pass complete to Jake Godfrey for 3 yds to the ULM 42Similar
Q3 1:24
3RD & 5
OWN 42
+4
48.0%
Aidan Armenta pass complete to Jake Godfrey for 4 yds to the ULM 46Similar
Q3 0:37
4TH & 1
OWN 46
+5
47.6%
Ahmad Hardy run for 5 yds to the JMU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
52.8%
Ahmad Hardy run for 1 yd to the JMU 48Similar
Q4 14:19
2ND & 9
OPP 48
-5
53.2%
UL Monroe Penalty, False Start (Jay Mickle) to the ULM 47Similar
Q4 13:56
2ND & 14
OWN 47
0
49.2%
Aidan Armenta pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:53
3RD & 14
OWN 47
+30
47.0%
Aidan Armenta pass complete to Artis Cole for 30 yds to the JMU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:11
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
54.7%
James Jones run for 4 yds to the JMU 19Similar
Q4 12:27
2ND & 6
OPP 19
+13
55.4%
Aidan Armenta run for 13 yds to the JMU 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-5
56.1%
UL Monroe Penalty, False Start (Carter Miller) to the JMU 11Similar
Q4 11:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 11
-1
56.7%
James Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the JMU 12Similar
Q4 10:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
+12
86.9%
Aidan Armenta pass complete to Jake Godfrey for 12 yds for a TD (Max Larson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 17TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 6:2621% → 44%
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
79.1%
Alonza Barnett III pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:24
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
79.6%
Alonza Barnett III run for 9 yds to the JMU 34Similar
Q4 9:47
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
80.9%
Alonza Barnett III run for 2 yds to the JMU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+10
80.9%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Taylor Thompson for 10 yds to the JMU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
79.3%
Alonza Barnett III pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:02
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+7
80.3%
George Pettaway run for 7 yds to the ULM 47Similar
Q4 8:23
3RD & 3
OPP 47
+2
80.4%
George Pettaway run for 2 yds to the ULM 45Similar
Q4 7:41
4TH & 1
OPP 45
+5
82.1%
Tyler Purdy run for 5 yds to the ULM 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+16
80.4%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Taylor Thompson for 16 yds to the ULM 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:24
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
79.5%
Alonza Barnett III pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:17
2ND & 10
OPP 24
-2
80.3%
Alonza Barnett III run for a loss of 2 yards to the ULM 26Similar
Q4 5:30
3RD & 12
OPP 26
+16
84.2%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Taylor Thompson for 16 yds to the ULM 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
81.1%
Alonza Barnett III pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+9
81.2%
Alonza Barnett III run for 9 yds to the ULM 1Similar
Q4 4:04
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
55.6%
Tyler Purdy run for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:4776% → 72%
Q4 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
76.1%
James Jones run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 3:24
2ND & 8
50
0
75.8%
Aidan Armenta pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:18
3RD & 8
50
0
73.8%
Aidan Armenta pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:12
4TH & 8
50
+4
71.6%
Makenzie Ryan punt for 36 yds , Yamir Knight returns for 4 yds to the JMU 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 19DOWNS
11 plays · 16 yds · 1:2537% → 13%
Q4 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
63.4%
George Pettaway run for 5 yds to the JMU 23Similar
Q4 2:37
2ND & 5
OWN 23
+11
62.9%
Alonza Barnett III run for 11 yds to the JMU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
62.7%
Alonza Barnett III pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:03
2ND & 10
OWN 34
-10
63.5%
(02:03) BARNETT III, Alonza scrambles to the left for a gain of 3 yards to the JMU37 (GLASS JR., Carl), clock 01:54. PENALTY JMU Holding on ROBELL, Riley enforced 10 yards from the JMU34 to the JMU24 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 1:54
2ND & 20
OWN 24
+10
68.8%
George Pettaway run for 10 yds to the JMU 34Similar
Q4 1:48
3RD & 10
OWN 34
0
72.6%
Alonza Barnett III pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:44
4TH & 10
OWN 34
0
73.5%
Alonza Barnett III pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:39
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-5
88.3%
UL Monroe Penalty, False Start (Nate Sullivan Jr.) to the JMU 39Similar
Q4 1:39
1ST & 15
OPP 39
-10
86.6%
(01:39) HARDY, Ahmad rush to the right for a gain of 22 yards to the JMU17 (SPENCE, Terrence), out of bounds, clock 01:33. PENALTY ULM Holding on MCGRUDER, Amir enforced 10 yards from the JMU39 to the JMU49 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · -12 yds · 0:5586% → 90%
Q4 1:33
1ST & 25
OPP 49
+3
86.0%
Ahmad Hardy run for 3 yds to the JMU 46Similar
Q4 1:29
2ND & 22
OPP 46
+6
86.2%
Ahmad Hardy run for 6 yds to the JMU 40Similar
Q4 1:23
3RD & 16
OPP 40
-6
85.4%
Aidan Armenta run for a loss of 6 yards to the JMU 46Similar
Q4 0:38
4TH & 22
OPP 46
0
89.7%
punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Yamir Knight at the JMU 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 21DOWNS
8 plays · 14 yds · 0:2616% → 13%
Q4 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
84.5%
Alonza Barnett III pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:30
2ND & 10
OWN 14
0
84.9%
Alonza Barnett III pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:25
3RD & 10
OWN 14
+14
86.0%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to George Pettaway for 14 yds to the JMU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
84.2%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Omarion Dollison for 5 yds to the JMU 33Similar
Q4 0:15
2ND & 5
OWN 33
0
82.9%
Alonza Barnett III pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:11
3RD & 5
OWN 33
0
84.2%
Alonza Barnett III pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:07
4TH & 5
OWN 33
-5
85.7%
James Madison Penalty, False Start (Jesse Ramil) to the JMU 28Similar
Q4 0:07
4TH & 10
OWN 28
0
86.7%
Alonza Barnett III pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 22END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-1
95.9%
(00:01) [NH] Kneel down by BOOTY, General at JMU29 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 10:30
Aidan Armenta pass complete to Jake Godfrey for 12 yds for a TD (Max Larson KICK)
+30.2
TD · Q4 4:04
Tyler Purdy run for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
-25.6
KEY PLAY · Q4 4:00
Timeout UL Monroe, clock 04:00
+20.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com