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APP

App State 37 at Marshall 52

MRSH
2024 · Week 6 · Oct 5, 2024 · Joan C. Edwards Stadium
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Win probability · MRSH
modelMRSH aheadAPP aheadconfidence bandkey playMRSH scoreAPP score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 2:30 · Maquel Haywood run for 6 yds to the MRSH 41 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorDefense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.0+17.00−17.0−34.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 78Home team on offense+11.2Score differential+4.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+4.0Garbage-time factor+2.2Defense timeouts+3.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:53: Joey Aguilar pass intercepted J'Coryan Anderson return for 13 yds for a TD (Rece Verhoff KICK) — MRSH win probability +9.3 pts (now 65%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 4:58: Braylon Braxton pass complete to A.J. Turner for 5 yds for a TD (Rece Verhoff KICK) — MRSH win probability +8.5 pts (now 84%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 7:01: A.J. Turner run for 29 yds for a TD (Rece Verhoff KICK) — MRSH win probability +11.5 pts (now 91%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 1:50: Joey Aguilar pass complete to Dalton Stroman for 27 yds for a TD (Jackson Moore KICK) — APP win probability +10.3 pts (now 14%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:05: Ahmani Marshall run for 2 yds for a TD (Jackson Moore KICK) — APP win probability +6.6 pts (now 7%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MRSH made the numbers' call on 0 of 3APP made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 13:46APP 4th & 13 at APP 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.9%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:51APP 4th & 8 at MRSH 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 37.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.6%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.7%
    68% to make
    Punt
    36.8%−0.9
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:26MRSH 4th & 5 at APP 43, up 4
    Close callPunted · 61.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.4%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    61.0%−0.4
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    61.2%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:11APP 4th & 2 at MRSH 40, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    31.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    29.8%−1.3
    34% to make
    Punt
    30.0%−1.0
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:04APP 4th & 8 at MRSH 21, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 29.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.9%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    29.4%
    74% to make
    Punt
    26.2%−3.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:30APP 4th & 1 at MRSH 47, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    16.3%−2.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:47APP 4th & 5 at MRSH 21, down 18
    Close callWent for it · 17.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.8%−0.7
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    17.5%
    74% to make
    Punt
    12.1%−5.4
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:59MRSH 4th & 3 at MRSH 35, up 11
    Close callPunted · 77.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.5%−0.2
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:01APP 4th & 3 at APP 31, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.7%−0.3
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.0%
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:06MRSH 4th & 2 at APP 20, up 18
    Close callKicked a field goal · 93.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.5%−0.5
    75% to make
    Punt
    89.1%−3.9
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:50APP 4th & 19 at MRSH 27, down 21
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.1 ptsWent for it · 3.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.0%−1.1
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    3.1%
    62% to make
    Punt
    0.6%−2.5
    average punt
  12. Q4 8:39APP 4th & 10 at MRSH 38, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.2%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    1.4%
    38% to make
    Punt
    1.2%−0.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 1:13APP 4th & 2 at MRSH 2, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    1.0%−0.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    0.4%−0.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MRSH made the numbers' call on 6 of 7APP made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 11:56MRSH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:55APP Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:05MRSH Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 13:53MRSH Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 4:58MRSH Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:47APP Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 7:01MRSH Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 1:50APP Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 11:12MRSH Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 6:05APP Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.8%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.9%
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 4:16MRSH Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.4%
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 1:13APP Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    2.0%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    2.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
APPDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:1048% → 47%
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
52.3%
Kanye Roberts run for 3 yds to the APP 28Similar
Q1 14:22
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
52.4%
Joey Aguilar pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:21
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-6
52.4%
Joey Aguilar sacked by Mike Green for a loss of 6 yards to the APP 22Similar
Q1 13:46
4TH & 13
OWN 22
+10
52.6%
Conner Maynard punt for 41 yds , Elijah Metcalf returns for 10 yds to the APP 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 2TD
5 plays · 48 yds · 1:3553% → 54%
Q1 13:31
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
52.7%
Braylon Braxton run for 5 yds to the APP 43Similar
Q1 13:14
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+6
52.8%
A.J. Turner run for 6 yds to the APP 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:53
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+30
52.9%
Braylon Braxton run for 30 yds to the APP 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
53.1%
App State Penalty, Offsides (Yards) to the APP 3Similar
Q1 11:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
54.3%
Braylon Braxton run for 3 yds for a TD (Rece Verhoff KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 3FG
10 plays · 51 yds · 4:0346% → 46%
Q1 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
53.8%
Kanye Roberts run for no gain to the APP 25Similar
Q1 11:19
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
54.1%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Eli Wilson for 15 yds to the APP 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
54.0%
Joey Aguilar run for 15 yds to the MRSH 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
54.0%
Kanye Roberts run for 5 yds to the MRSH 40Similar
Q1 9:45
2ND & 5
OPP 40
0
54.1%
Joey Aguilar pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:39
3RD & 5
OPP 40
+14
54.3%
Joey Aguilar run for 14 yds to the MRSH 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:05
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
54.2%
Kanye Roberts run for no gain to the MRSH 26Similar
Q1 8:33
2ND & 10
OPP 26
0
54.4%
Joey Aguilar pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:26
3RD & 10
OPP 26
+2
54.8%
Kanye Roberts run for 2 yds to the MRSH 24Similar
Q1 7:51
4TH & 8
OPP 24
+42
53.9%
Jackson Moore 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 1:1655% → 55%
Q1 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
54.9%
A.J. Turner run for 8 yds to the MRSH 48Similar
Q1 7:22
2ND & 2
OWN 48
+4
55.3%
A.J. Turner run for 4 yds to the APP 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:34
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
55.7%
Braylon Braxton pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:34
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
55.6%
Braylon Braxton pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:30
3RD & 10
OPP 48
+5
55.2%
App State Penalty, Offsides (5 Yards) to the APP 43Similar
Q1 6:28
3RD & 5
OPP 43
0
55.5%
Braylon Braxton pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:26
4TH & 5
OPP 43
0
55.1%
Alec Clark punt for 37 yds, downed at the APP 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 5TD
16 plays · 94 yds · 6:2145% → 51%
Q1 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+5
54.7%
Kanye Roberts run for 5 yds to the APP 11Similar
Q1 5:44
2ND & 5
OWN 11
-1
55.0%
Kanye Roberts run for a loss of 1 yard to the APP 10Similar
Q1 5:04
3RD & 6
OWN 10
+6
55.5%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Kaedin Robinson for 6 yds to the APP 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+11
55.1%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Makai Jackson for 11 yds to the APP 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
55.0%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Kaedin Robinson for 4 yds to the APP 31Similar
Q1 3:17
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+7
54.9%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Makai Jackson for 7 yds to the APP 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
54.6%
Kanye Roberts run for 6 yds to the APP 44Similar
Q1 2:04
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+19
54.3%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to William Fowles for 19 yds to the MRSH 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
53.9%
Joey Aguilar pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:38
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+13
54.0%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Makai Jackson for 13 yds to the MRSH 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:01
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
53.3%
Joey Aguilar pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:56
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+1
53.6%
Kanye Roberts run for 1 yd to the MRSH 23Similar
Q1 0:25
3RD & 9
OPP 23
+13
54.8%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Kaedin Robinson for 13 yds to the MRSH 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
48.7%
Kanye Roberts run for 10 yds for a TD (Jackson Moore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 6TD
2 plays · 76 yds · 0:4152% → 56%
Q2 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
51.5%
Braylon Braxton run for 1 yd to the MRSH 25Similar
Q2 14:05
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+75
55.8%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Jordan Houston for 75 yds for a TD (Rece Verhoff KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 7INT TD
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0035% → 35%
Q2 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-13
65.1%
Joey Aguilar pass intercepted J'Coryan Anderson return for 13 yds for a TD (Rece Verhoff KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 8MISSED FG
15 plays · 54 yds · 5:4735% → 31%
Q2 13:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
65.0%
Kanye Roberts run for 4 yds to the APP 29Similar
Q2 13:16
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
65.2%
Joey Aguilar pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:10
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+10
65.8%
AGUILAR, Joey pass deep up the middle incomplete intended for ROBINSON, Kaedin broken up by GREEN-MCKNIGHT, Jadarius at the MAR30, clock 13:10. PENALTY MAR Holding on ROBERTS, J.J. enforced 10 yards from the APP29 to the APP39 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+10
64.9%
Ahmani Marshall run for 10 yds to the APP 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
64.6%
Ahmani Marshall run for 6 yds to the MRSH 45Similar
Q2 12:16
2ND & 4
OPP 45
-15
64.6%
App State Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Joey Aguilar) to the MRSH 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:51
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
65.4%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Kaedin Robinson for 3 yds to the MRSH 45Similar
Q2 11:16
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+6
66.0%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Ahmani Marshall for 6 yds to the MRSH 39Similar
Q2 10:56
3RD & 1
OPP 39
-1
66.2%
Ahmani Marshall run for a loss of 1 yard to the MRSH 40Similar
Q2 10:11
4TH & 2
OPP 40
+17
67.8%
Makai Jackson run for 17 yds to the MRSH 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
66.0%
Ahmani Marshall run for 2 yds to the MRSH 21Similar
Q2 8:53
2ND & 8
OPP 21
0
66.4%
Joey Aguilar pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:42
3RD & 8
OPP 21
0
67.8%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Makai Jackson for no gain to the MRSH 21Similar
Q2 8:04
4TH & 8
OPP 21
+39
69.3%
Jackson Moore 39 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 9TD
12 plays · 79 yds · 3:0275% → 84%
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
74.8%
(08:00) TURNER, A.J. rush up the middle for a loss of 2 yards to the MAR19 (DONALD, Joshua;SULLIVAN, Caden), clock 07:59. PENALTY APP Offsides on FLETCHER, Michael enforced 5 yards from the MAR21 to the MAR26 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 7:33
1ST & 5
OWN 26
0
75.6%
Braylon Braxton pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:29
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+6
75.3%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Carl Chester for 6 yds to the MRSH 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
75.9%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Elijah Metcalf for 2 yds to the MRSH 34Similar
Q2 6:31
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+15
76.1%
Braylon Braxton run for 15 yds to the MRSH 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
77.8%
Braylon Braxton pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:58
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+15
77.6%
App State Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Avarion Cole) to the APP 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:36
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+14
76.3%
(05:36) EARLE, Stone pass deep to the left incomplete intended for CHESTER, Carl thrown to the APP6, clock 05:34. PENALTY APP Pass Interference on JOHNSON, Ethan enforced half the distance from the goal, 14 yards to the APP13 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 5:29
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+8
75.6%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Ethan Payne for 8 yds to the APP 5Similar
Q2 4:59
2ND & 2
OPP 5
0
75.8%
Braylon Braxton pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:58
3RD & 2
OPP 5
+5
84.3%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to A.J. Turner for 5 yds for a TD (Rece Verhoff KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 10TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:0920% → 22%
Q2 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
79.7%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Kaedin Robinson for 19 yds to the APP 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
79.2%
Maquel Haywood run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 3:54
2ND & 4
50
+1
78.4%
Maquel Haywood run for 1 yd to the MRSH 49Similar
Q2 3:11
3RD & 3
OPP 49
+2
80.1%
Maquel Haywood run for 2 yds to the MRSH 47Similar
Q2 2:30
4TH & 1
OPP 47
+6
80.8%
Maquel Haywood run for 6 yds to the MRSH 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:57
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+15
80.3%
(01:57) AGUILAR, Joey pass deep to the left incomplete intended for ROBINSON, Kaedin thrown to the MAR17, clock 01:54. PENALTY MAR Pass Interference on ROBERTS, J.J. enforced 15 yards to the MAR26 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-10
79.1%
Joey Aguilar sacked by TyQaze Leggs and Mike Green for a loss of 10 yards to the MRSH 36Similar
Q2 1:23
2ND & 20
OPP 36
+6
82.7%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Dalton Stroman for 6 yds to the MRSH 30Similar
Q2 0:53
3RD & 14
OPP 30
+9
83.0%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Dalton Stroman for 9 yds to the MRSH 21Similar
Q2 0:47
4TH & 5
OPP 21
+21
77.6%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Dalton Stroman for 21 yds for a TD (Jackson Moore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 11END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0080% → 80%
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-2
80.3%
(00:32) [NHSG] Kneel down by TEAM at MAR24 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:4975% → 75%
Q3 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
74.6%
A.J. Turner run for no gain to the MRSH 28Similar
Q3 14:13
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+3
74.9%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Chuck Montgomery for 3 yds to the MRSH 31Similar
Q3 13:28
3RD & 7
OWN 31
+4
74.7%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Christian Fitzpatrick for 4 yds to the MRSH 35Similar
Q3 12:59
4TH & 3
OWN 35
0
74.5%
Alec Clark punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Kaedin Robinson at the APP 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:5025% → 23%
Q3 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
74.6%
Kanye Roberts run for 2 yds to the APP 26Similar
Q3 12:16
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+6
74.8%
Joey Aguilar run for 6 yds to the APP 32Similar
Q3 11:37
3RD & 2
OWN 32
-1
75.1%
Kanye Roberts run for a loss of 1 yard to the APP 31Similar
Q3 11:01
4TH & 3
OWN 31
0
76.6%
Conner Maynard punt for 49 yds, downed at the MRSH 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 14TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 3:5275% → 91%
Q3 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
75.3%
A.J. Turner run for 8 yds to the MRSH 28Similar
Q3 10:22
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+3
76.0%
A.J. Turner run for 3 yds to the MRSH 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
76.2%
Braylon Braxton run for 6 yds to the MRSH 37Similar
Q3 9:39
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+6
77.1%
Jordan Houston run for 6 yds to the MRSH 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
78.4%
Jordan Houston run for no gain to the MRSH 43Similar
Q3 8:27
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+15
78.4%
(08:27) BRAXTON, Braylon pass deep up the middle incomplete intended for MONTGOMERY, Charles thrown to the APP35, clock 08:22. PENALTY APP Pass Interference on ROBERTSON, Seth enforced 15 yards to the APP42 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 8:19
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+13
79.2%
Braylon Braxton run for 13 yds to the APP 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:37
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
79.6%
A.J. Turner run for no gain to the APP 29Similar
Q3 7:01
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+29
91.1%
A.J. Turner run for 29 yds for a TD (Rece Verhoff KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 15INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q3 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
88.7%
Joey Aguilar pass intercepted Jacobie Henderson return for 1 yd to the APP 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 16FG
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:4393% → 96%
Q3 6:49
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-4
92.9%
Tychaun Chapman run for a loss of 4 yards to the APP 32Similar
Q3 6:14
2ND & 14
OPP 32
+7
93.0%
Jordan Houston run for 7 yds to the APP 25Similar
Q3 5:53
3RD & 7
OPP 25
+5
93.0%
Braylon Braxton run for 5 yds to the APP 20Similar
Q3 5:06
4TH & 2
OPP 20
+38
96.4%
Rece Verhoff 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 17TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:135% → 14%
Q3 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
94.7%
Marshall Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (J'Coryan Anderson) to the MRSH 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:47
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+19
94.5%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Kaedin Robinson for 19 yds to the MRSH 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
93.9%
Ahmani Marshall run for 5 yds to the MRSH 24Similar
Q3 3:53
2ND & 5
OPP 24
-9
94.1%
Joey Aguilar sacked for a loss of 9 yards to the MRSH 33 Joey Aguilar fumbled, recovered by APP Joey Aguilar , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 3:08
3RD & 14
OPP 33
+15
95.8%
(03:08) AGUILAR, Joey pass deep to the left incomplete intended for ROBINSON, Kaedin thrown to the MAR0, clock 03:03. PENALTY MAR Pass Interference on FOSTER, Ahmere enforced 15 yards to the MAR18 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 3:03
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
95.3%
Ahmani Marshall run for 1 yd to the MRSH 17Similar
Q3 2:25
2ND & 9
OPP 17
0
95.6%
Joey Aguilar pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:21
3RD & 9
OPP 17
0
96.5%
Joey Aguilar pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:17
4TH & 9
OPP 17
-10
96.6%
(02:17) QB Keeper AGUILAR, Joey rush to the right for a gain of 9 yards to the MAR8 (GREEN-MCKNIGHT, Jadarius), clock 02:12. PENALTY APP Holding on SHRADER, Thomas enforced 10 yards from the MAR17 to the MAR27 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 1:50
4TH & 19
OPP 27
+27
86.2%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Dalton Stroman for 27 yds for a TD (Jackson Moore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 18TD
11 plays · 65 yds · 5:3394% → 100%
Q3 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
93.9%
A.J. Turner run for 7 yds to the MRSH 42Similar
Q3 1:03
2ND & 3
OWN 42
-3
94.6%
A.J. Turner run for a loss of 3 yards to the MRSH 39Similar
Q3 0:35
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+7
95.8%
Braylon Braxton run for 7 yds to the MRSH 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
96.3%
Jordan Houston run for 9 yds to the APP 45Similar
Q4 14:32
2ND & 1
OPP 45
-5
96.2%
Marshall Penalty, False Start (Carl Chester) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 14:13
2ND & 6
50
+3
96.5%
Braylon Braxton run for 3 yds to the APP 47Similar
Q4 13:35
3RD & 3
OPP 47
+5
96.4%
Braylon Braxton run for 5 yds to the APP 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+15
96.9%
App State Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Jason Chambers) to the APP 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:36
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
96.9%
Ethan Payne run for 1 yd to the APP 25Similar
Q4 11:59
2ND & 9
OPP 25
-1
97.2%
Braylon Braxton run for a loss of 1 yard to the APP 26Similar
Q4 11:12
3RD & 10
OPP 26
+26
99.6%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Chuck Montgomery for 26 yds for a TD (Rece Verhoff KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 19TD
19 plays · 75 yds · 5:071% → 7%
Q4 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
98.8%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Makai Jackson for a loss of 2 yards to the APP 23Similar
Q4 10:41
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+12
98.9%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Dalton Stroman for 12 yds to the APP 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
98.9%
Ahmani Marshall run for 9 yds to the APP 44Similar
Q4 9:40
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+18
98.8%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Kaedin Robinson for 18 yds to the MRSH 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
98.9%
Joey Aguilar pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:14
2ND & 10
OPP 38
0
98.9%
Joey Aguilar pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:12
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-11
98.9%
(09:12) AGUILAR, Joey scrambles up the middle for a gain of 11 yards to the MAR38, End of Play, 1ST DOWN, clock 09:05. PENALTY MAR Face mask on OKOLO, Jude APP Holding on RAMSEY, Jayden APP Holding on RAMSEY, Jayden , Offsetting penalties [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 8:50
3RD & 10
OPP 38
0
98.9%
Joey Aguilar pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:39
4TH & 10
OPP 38
+12
99.0%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Kaedin Robinson for 12 yds to the MRSH 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-10
98.8%
AGUILAR, Joey pass to the left complete for 5 yards to MARSHALL, Ahmani caught at the MAR31 and advanced to the MAR21 (MOTEN, Josh;FOSTER, Ian), clock 08:12. PENALTY APP Holding on ROBINSON, Kaedin enforced 10 yards from the MAR26 to the MAR36 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 8:01
1ST & 20
OPP 36
0
99.0%
Joey Aguilar pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:55
2ND & 20
OPP 36
+28
99.0%
Joey Aguilar run for 28 yds to the MRSH 8 for a 1ST down Marshall Penalty, Defensive Holding (Jadarius Green-McKnight) to the MRSH 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
98.9%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to David Larkins for 3 yds to the MRSH 1Similar
Q4 6:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-10
99.0%
MARSHALL, Ahmani rush to the right for a gain of 1 yard to the MAR0, TOUCHDOWN APP, score nullified by penalty, clock 06:52 (Play was confirmed after review). PENALTY APP Holding on ROBINSON, Kaedin enforced 10 yards from the MAR1 to the MAR11 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 6:47
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
+3
99.1%
Maquel Haywood run for 3 yds to the MRSH 8Similar
Q4 6:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
0
99.0%
Joey Aguilar pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:11
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
99.3%
Marshall Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Jaden Yates) to the MRSH 2Similar
Q4 6:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
92.7%
Ahmani Marshall run for 2 yds for a TD (Jackson Moore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 20TD
9 plays · 58 yds · 1:4199% → 100%
Q4 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
99.0%
Chuck Montgomery run for 4 yds to the MRSH 46Similar
Q4 5:52
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+2
99.0%
A.J. Turner run for 2 yds to the MRSH 48Similar
Q4 5:47
3RD & 4
OWN 48
+4
99.1%
Braylon Braxton run for 4 yds to the APP 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
99.2%
Jordan Houston run for 1 yd to the APP 47Similar
Q4 5:02
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+12
99.3%
Jordan Houston run for 12 yds to the APP 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:16
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+35
99.9%
Braylon Braxton run for 35 yds for a TD (Rece Verhoff KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 21TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 2:590% → 1%
Q4 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.8%
Joey Aguilar pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:10
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
99.8%
App State Penalty, False Start (William Fowles) to the APP 20Similar
Q4 4:08
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+3
99.8%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Maquel Haywood for 3 yds to the APP 23Similar
Q4 3:40
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+15
99.9%
(03:40) AGUILAR, Joey pass up the middle incomplete intended for STROMAN, Dalton thrown to the APP34, clock 03:41. PENALTY MAR Pass Interference on REAGAN, Jordan enforced 15 yards to the APP38 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+10
99.9%
Joey Aguilar run for 10 yds to the APP 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+17
99.9%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Maquel Haywood for 17 yds to the MRSH 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:59
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
99.8%
Joey Aguilar pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:54
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+27
99.8%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Michael Hetzel for 27 yds to the MRSH 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
99.8%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to David Larkins for 5 yds to the MRSH 3Similar
Q4 2:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
99.8%
Joey Aguilar sacked by Deeve Harris for a loss of 5 yards to the MRSH 8Similar
Q4 1:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
99.8%
Maquel Haywood run for 6 yds to the MRSH 2Similar
Q4 1:13
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.0%
Ahmani Marshall run for 2 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 22END OF GAME
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:46100% → 100%
Q4 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-2
99.5%
(01:10) [NHSG] Kneel down by TEAM at APP48 (team loss of 2), clock 01:05.Similar
Q4 0:24
2ND & 12
OPP 48
-1
99.6%
(00:24) [NHSG] Kneel down by TEAM at APP49 (team loss of 1), clock 00:19.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:01
A.J. Turner run for 29 yds for a TD (Rece Verhoff KICK)
+11.5
TD · Q3 1:50
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Dalton Stroman for 27 yds for a TD (Jackson Moore KICK)
-10.3
TD · Q2 13:53
Joey Aguilar pass intercepted J'Coryan Anderson return for 13 yds for a TD (Rece Verhoff KICK)
+9.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com