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TXST

Texas State 38 at Troy 17

TROY
2024 · Week 6 · Oct 3, 2024 · Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)
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Win probability · TROY
modelTROY aheadTXST aheadconfidence bandkey playTROY scoreTXST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 8:28 · Robert Cole punt for 44 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+55.0+27.50−27.5−55.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 21Home team on offense−1.2Pregame prior−31.8Score differential−0.3Garbage-time factor−0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:52: Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to Mojo Dortch for 7 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK) — TROY win probability +6.5 pts (now 24%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  2. TD · Q2 9:03: Jordan McCloud pass complete to Kole Wilson for 51 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK) — TXST win probability +6.8 pts (now 85%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 2:02: Jordan McCloud pass complete to Joey Hobert for 28 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK) — TXST win probability +7.4 pts (now 90%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 9:47: Mason Shipley 53 yd FG GOOD — TXST win probability +2.9 pts (now 95%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 3:28: Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to Devonte Ross for 19 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK) — TROY win probability +3.0 pts (now 5%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TROY made the numbers' call on 6 of 8TXST made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 12:26TROY 4th & 25 at TROY 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.4%−0.3
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:26TROY 4th & 25 at TROY 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.4%−0.3
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:28TROY 4th & 7 at TROY 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.8%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:06TXST 4th & 2 at TXST 36, up 7
    Close callPunted · 79.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.8%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:59TROY 4th & 16 at TROY 27, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.4%−1.0
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:17TROY 4th & 7 at TXST 23, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 17.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.0%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    17.2%
    70% to make
    Punt
    15.0%−2.2
    average punt
  7. Q3 9:47TXST 4th & 13 at TROY 35, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 90.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.5%−0.6
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.1%
    45% to make
    Punt
    90.6%−0.6
    average punt
  8. Q3 7:03TROY 4th & 8 at TROY 48, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 6.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.9%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    7.2%
    average punt
  9. Q4 14:12TXST 4th & 15 at TXST 47, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.3%−0.5
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.8%
    average punt
  10. Q4 12:34TROY 4th & 9 at TROY 9, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.0%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.3%
    average punt
  11. Q4 5:57TROY 4th & 10 at TXST 49, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 1.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.1%−<0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TROY made the numbers' call on 2 of 2TXST made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 9:35TXST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:05TXST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:52TROY Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 9:03TXST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 2:02TXST Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 5:34TXST Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 3:28TROY Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TROYDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · -3 yds · 2:3416% → 17%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
16.1%
Damien Taylor run for 2 yds to the TROY 27Similar
Q1 14:25
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
16.4%
Mojo Dortch run for 7 yds to the TROY 34Similar
Q1 13:52
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
16.6%
Damien Taylor run for 3 yds to the TROY 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
16.9%
Tucker Kilcrease pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:16
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
16.9%
Tucker Kilcrease pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:10
3RD & 10
OWN 37
-15
16.9%
Tucker Kilcrease sacked by Kalil Alexander and Jo'Laison Landry for a loss of 15 yards to the TROY 22Similar
Q1 12:26
4TH & 25
OWN 22
0
17.2%
Robert Cole punt for 44 ydsSimilar
Q1 12:26
4TH & 25
OWN 22
0
17.2%
Robert Cole punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 2TD
8 plays · 66 yds · 2:5083% → 83%
Q1 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-2
17.3%
Jordan McCloud sacked by Darrell Starling for a loss of 2 yards to the TXST 32Similar
Q1 11:55
2ND & 12
OWN 32
+15
17.6%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Jaden Williams for 15 yds to the TXST 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
17.5%
Ismail Mahdi run for 5 yds to the TROY 48Similar
Q1 11:07
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+5
17.7%
Ismail Mahdi run for 5 yds to the TROY 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:37
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+21
17.9%
Jordan McCloud run for 21 yds to the TROY 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:03
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+15
18.1%
(10:03) MCCLOUD, Jordan pass deep up the middle incomplete intended for HOBERT, Joey thrown to the TROY3, clock 09:58. PENALTY TROY Pass Interference on CONERLY-GOODLY, Ian enforced at the spot of the foul for 15 yards to the TROY7 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 9:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
18.2%
Jordan McCloud run for 6 yds to the TROY 1Similar
Q1 9:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
17.2%
Ismail Mahdi run for 1 yd for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:0718% → 18%
Q1 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
17.6%
Matthew Caldwell sacked by Steven Parker for a loss of 6 yards to the TROY 19Similar
Q1 9:11
2ND & 16
OWN 19
0
17.6%
Matthew Caldwell pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:07
3RD & 16
OWN 19
+9
17.6%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Zeriah Beason for 9 yds to the TROY 28Similar
Q1 8:28
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
17.7%
Robert Cole punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:1882% → 82%
Q1 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
17.7%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Joey Hobert for 2 yds to the TXST 30Similar
Q1 7:52
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+6
17.9%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Kole Wilson for 6 yds to the TXST 36Similar
Q1 7:11
3RD & 2
OWN 36
0
17.9%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:06
4TH & 2
OWN 36
0
18.1%
Lars Rau punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Devonte Ross at the TROY 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 5FUMBLE
3 plays · 35 yds · 1:1518% → 19%
Q1 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+22
18.4%
Damien Taylor run for 22 yds to the TXST 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
19.1%
Damien Taylor run for 5 yds to the TXST 44Similar
Q1 5:43
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+8
19.4%
Tucker Kilcrease run for 8 yds to the TXST 36 Tucker Kilcrease fumbled, recovered by TXST Darius Jackson D. Jackson return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 6TD
8 plays · 64 yds · 3:3382% → 84%
Q1 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
18.3%
Torrance Burgess Jr. run for 8 yds to the TXST 44Similar
Q1 5:06
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+6
18.2%
Torrance Burgess Jr. run for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:44
1ST & 10
50
-1
18.2%
Torrance Burgess Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the TXST 49Similar
Q1 4:08
2ND & 11
OWN 49
+17
18.4%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Jaden Williams for 17 yds to the TROY 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+11
18.3%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Jaden Williams for 11 yds to the TROY 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:11
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+9
18.4%
Torrance Burgess Jr. run for 9 yds to the TROY 14Similar
Q1 2:53
2ND & 1
OPP 14
+4
18.4%
Torrance Burgess Jr. run for 4 yds to the TROY 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
15.6%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Jaden Williams for 10 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 2:0017% → 16%
Q1 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
16.5%
Damien Taylor run for 3 yds to the TROY 23Similar
Q1 1:25
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+10
16.5%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Zeriah Beason for 10 yds to the TROY 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
16.6%
Matthew Caldwell pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:58
2ND & 10
OWN 33
-3
16.6%
Peyton Higgins run for a loss of 3 yards to the TROY 30Similar
Q1 0:19
3RD & 13
OWN 30
-3
16.3%
Matthew Caldwell sacked for a loss of 3 yards to the TROY 27 Matthew Caldwell fumbled, recovered by TROY Tyler Cappi , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 14:59
4TH & 16
OWN 27
0
16.4%
Robert Cole punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Kole Wilson at the TXST 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 8INT
4 plays · 34 yds · 1:2984% → 85%
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
15.9%
Ismail Mahdi run for 2 yds to the TXST 33Similar
Q2 14:19
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+20
15.9%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Jaden Williams for 20 yds to the TROY 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:57
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+12
15.4%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Kole Wilson for 12 yds to the TROY 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:24
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
15.3%
Jordan McCloud pass intercepted Jordan Stringer return for no gain to the TROY 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 9TD
5 plays · 66 yds · 2:2617% → 24%
Q2 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
16.7%
Tucker Kilcrease run for 4 yds to the TROY 38Similar
Q2 12:40
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+22
17.2%
Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to Landon Parker for 22 yds to the TXST 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:02
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+33
16.8%
Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to Landon Parker for 33 yds to the TXST 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
17.2%
Gerald Green run for no gain to the TXST 7Similar
Q2 10:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
23.7%
Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to Mojo Dortch for 7 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 10TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:4979% → 85%
Q2 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
21.0%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Joey Hobert for 7 yds to the TXST 32Similar
Q2 10:38
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+1
20.6%
Ismail Mahdi run for 1 yd to the TXST 33Similar
Q2 9:59
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
20.7%
Ismail Mahdi run for 1 yd to the TXST 34Similar
Q2 9:14
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+15
21.4%
(09:14) RAU, Lars punt 35 yards to the TROY31, fair catch by ROSS, Devonte, clock 09:10. PENALTY TROY Roughing the Kicker on PERRY, Jordan enforced 15 yards from the TXST34 to the TXST49 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [FAKE PUNT]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+51
14.6%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Kole Wilson for 51 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 11FG
13 plays · 52 yds · 5:4516% → 19%
Q2 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
15.9%
Damien Taylor run for 3 yds to the TROY 28Similar
Q2 8:21
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
16.0%
Damien Taylor run for 2 yds to the TROY 30Similar
Q2 7:55
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+6
15.5%
Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to Damien Taylor for 6 yds to the TROY 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
15.9%
Tucker Kilcrease pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:21
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+4
15.7%
Tucker Kilcrease run for 4 yds to the TROY 40Similar
Q2 6:39
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+7
16.0%
Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to Devonte Ross for 7 yds to the TROY 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+17
16.6%
Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to Landon Parker for 17 yds to the TXST 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:18
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+10
16.7%
Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to Peyton Higgins for 10 yds to the TXST 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-6
17.1%
Tucker Kilcrease sacked by Jo'Laison Landry for a loss of 6 yards to the TXST 32Similar
Q2 4:08
2ND & 16
OPP 32
0
17.6%
Tucker Kilcrease pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:05
3RD & 16
OPP 32
+9
16.9%
Tucker Kilcrease run for 9 yds to the TXST 23Similar
Q2 3:17
4TH & 7
OPP 23
+42
19.3%
Scott Taylor Renfroe 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 12TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:1482% → 90%
Q2 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
18.1%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:11
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
18.2%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:08
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+15
18.4%
Troy Penalty, Personal Foul (Raymond Cutts) to the TROY 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:52
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+17
17.0%
Torrance Burgess Jr. run for 17 yds to the TROY 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:02
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
9.6%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Joey Hobert for 28 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 13FUMBLE
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:0413% → 15%
Q2 2:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
12.6%
Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to Peyton Higgins for 4 yds to the TROY 29Similar
Q2 1:58
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
12.3%
Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to Peyton Higgins for 4 yds to the TROY 33Similar
Q2 1:23
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+6
12.5%
Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to Landon Parker for 6 yds to the TROY 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
12.9%
Tucker Kilcrease run for 3 yds to the TROY 42Similar
Q2 1:13
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+28
13.3%
Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to Peyton Higgins for 28 yds to the TXST 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:57
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
14.6%
Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to Peyton Higgins for 30 yds Peyton Higgins fumbled, recovered by TXST Ryan Nolan R. Nolan return for 2 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 14END OF HALF
5 plays · 21 yds · 0:1891% → 91%
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+2
9.4%
Deion Hankins run for 2 yds to the TXST 4Similar
Q2 0:41
2ND & 8
OWN 4
+14
9.4%
Torrance Burgess Jr. run for 14 yds to the TXST 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
9.1%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:25
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+5
9.3%
Torrance Burgess Jr. run for 5 yds to the TXST 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 15FG
12 plays · 40 yds · 5:1290% → 95%
Q3 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
9.6%
Ismail Mahdi run for 1 yd to the TXST 26Similar
Q3 14:33
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+5
9.4%
Jordan McCloud run for 5 yds to the TXST 31Similar
Q3 13:53
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+12
9.5%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Beau Sparks for 12 yds to the TXST 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
9.2%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Beau Sparks for 8 yds to the TROY 49Similar
Q3 13:04
2ND & 2
OPP 49
+6
8.4%
Ismail Mahdi run for 6 yds to the TROY 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:33
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
8.5%
Ismail Mahdi run for 1 yd to the TROY 42Similar
Q3 11:55
2ND & 9
OPP 42
+3
8.3%
Jordan McCloud run for 3 yds to the TROY 39Similar
Q3 11:11
3RD & 6
OPP 39
+7
8.2%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Joey Hobert for 7 yds to the TROY 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:41
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
7.8%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:38
2ND & 10
OPP 32
0
7.9%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:33
3RD & 10
OPP 32
-3
8.0%
Jordan McCloud sacked by Cheick Kaba for a loss of 3 yards to the TROY 35Similar
Q3 9:47
4TH & 13
OPP 35
+53
5.1%
Mason Shipley 53 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 16DOWNS
9 plays · 23 yds · 2:428% → 6%
Q3 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
7.6%
Damien Taylor run for 13 yds to the TROY 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-2
8.0%
Tucker Kilcrease run for a loss of 2 yards to the TROY 36Similar
Q3 8:36
2ND & 12
OWN 36
0
6.5%
Tucker Kilcrease pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:32
3RD & 12
OWN 36
+10
6.4%
(08:32) KILCREASE, Tucker pass deep up the middle intercepted by NOLAN, Ryan at the TXST44 intended for PARKER, Landon. Nolan return for 34 yards to the TROY22 (TAYLOR, Damien), clock 08:20. PENALTY TXST Holding on PEARSON, Kameron enforced 10 yards from the TROY36 to the TROY46 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
7.1%
Damien Taylor run for 3 yds to the TROY 49Similar
Q3 7:43
2ND & 7
OWN 49
0
7.0%
Tucker Kilcrease pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:39
3RD & 7
OWN 49
-1
6.8%
Damien Taylor run for a loss of 1 yard to the TROY 48Similar
Q3 7:03
4TH & 8
OWN 48
0
6.4%
Tucker Kilcrease pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 17TD
3 plays · 48 yds · 1:2497% → 99%
Q3 6:58
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
3.2%
Torrance Burgess Jr. run for 5 yds to the TROY 43Similar
Q3 6:16
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+1
2.4%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Joey Hobert for 1 yd to the TROY 42Similar
Q3 5:34
3RD & 4
OPP 42
+42
1.0%
Jordan McCloud run for 42 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 18TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 2:062% → 5%
Q3 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
1.6%
Gerald Green run for 6 yds to the TROY 31Similar
Q3 4:55
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
1.3%
Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to Gerald Green for 5 yds to the TROY 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+50
1.4%
Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to Zeriah Beason for 35 yds to the TXST 29 for a 1ST down Texas State Penalty, Roughing the Passer on BASS, Brice enforced (Brice Bass) to the TXST 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:09
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-5
1.6%
Tucker Kilcrease sacked by Jo'Laison Landry for a loss of 5 yards to the TXST 19Similar
Q3 3:28
2ND & 15
OPP 19
+19
4.6%
Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to Devonte Ross for 19 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 19PUNT
9 plays · 22 yds · 4:1698% → 98%
Q3 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
2.1%
Ismail Mahdi run for 8 yds to the TXST 33Similar
Q3 3:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+4
2.1%
Ismail Mahdi run for 4 yds to the TXST 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
2.0%
Ismail Mahdi run for 1 yd to the TXST 38Similar
Q3 1:41
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+14
1.8%
Torrance Burgess Jr. run for 14 yds to the TROY 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:02
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-10
1.7%
(01:02) BURGESS JR., Torrance rush to the left for a gain of 5 yards to the TROY43 (POWE, Justin), clock 00:57. PENALTY TXST Holding on LOCKETTE, Tellek enforced 10 yards from the TROY48 to the TXST42 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 0:38
1ST & 20
OWN 42
+5
1.7%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Beau Sparks for 5 yds to the TXST 47Similar
Q4 14:59
2ND & 15
OWN 47
0
1.6%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:53
3RD & 15
OWN 47
0
1.6%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Joey Hobert for no gain to the TXST 47Similar
Q4 14:12
4TH & 15
OWN 47
0
1.7%
David Nunez punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Devonte Ross at the TROY 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:343% → 2%
Q4 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
2.6%
Tucker Kilcrease run for no gain to the TROY 8Similar
Q4 13:22
2ND & 10
OWN 8
+1
2.3%
Tucker Kilcrease run for 1 yd to the TROY 9Similar
Q4 12:42
3RD & 9
OWN 9
0
2.2%
Tucker Kilcrease pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:34
4TH & 9
OWN 9
+13
2.2%
Robert Cole punt for 47 yds , Kole Wilson returns for 13 yds to the TROY 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 21FUMBLE
3 plays · 21 yds · 1:2999% → 99%
Q4 12:27
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
1.4%
Torrance Burgess Jr. run for 1 yd to the TROY 42Similar
Q4 11:42
2ND & 9
OPP 42
+3
1.3%
Torrance Burgess Jr. run for 3 yds to the TROY 39Similar
Q4 10:58
3RD & 6
OPP 39
+17
1.2%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Torrance Burgess Jr. for 17 yds fumbled, recovered by TROY Trent Henry T. Henry return for 6 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 22DOWNS
10 plays · 23 yds · 4:382% → 1%
Q4 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
2.2%
Tucker Kilcrease pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:35
2ND & 10
OWN 28
0
2.1%
Tucker Kilcrease pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:34
3RD & 10
OWN 28
+11
2.1%
Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to Gerald Green for 11 yds to the TROY 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-1
2.2%
Gerald Green run for a loss of 1 yard to the TROY 38Similar
Q4 9:14
2ND & 11
OWN 38
+8
2.1%
Mojo Dortch run for 8 yds to the TROY 46Similar
Q4 8:33
3RD & 3
OWN 46
+5
2.2%
Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to Landon Parker for 5 yds to the TXST 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:54
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-11
2.1%
Tucker Kilcrease sacked by Kalil Alexander for a loss of 11 yards to the TROY 40Similar
Q4 7:10
2ND & 21
OWN 40
+8
1.6%
Damien Taylor run for 8 yds to the TROY 48Similar
Q4 6:37
3RD & 13
OWN 48
+3
1.3%
Tucker Kilcrease run for 3 yds to the TXST 49Similar
Q4 5:57
4TH & 10
OPP 49
0
1.2%
Tucker Kilcrease pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 23INT
10 plays · 28 yds · 5:1699% → 100%
Q4 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
0.7%
Deion Hankins run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 4:59
2ND & 9
50
+6
0.6%
Deion Hankins run for 6 yds to the TROY 44Similar
Q4 4:19
3RD & 3
OPP 44
+8
0.6%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Kole Wilson for 8 yds to the TROY 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:36
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
0.6%
Deion Hankins run for 4 yds to the TROY 32Similar
Q4 3:20
2ND & 6
OPP 32
+4
0.5%
Deion Hankins run for 4 yds to the TROY 28Similar
Q4 2:30
3RD & 2
OPP 28
+2
0.5%
Deion Hankins run for 2 yds to the TROY 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:59
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
0.3%
Deion Hankins run for 3 yds to the TROY 23Similar
Q4 1:16
2ND & 7
OPP 23
0
0.3%
Deion Hankins run for no gain to the TROY 23Similar
Q4 0:35
3RD & 7
OPP 23
0
0.3%
Jordan McCloud pass intercepted, touchback. LJ Green return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 24END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
0.7%
(00:29) [SG] Kneel down by TEAM at TROY19 (team loss of 1), clock 00:09.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 2:02
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Joey Hobert for 28 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)
-7.4
TD · Q2 9:03
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Kole Wilson for 51 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)
-6.8
TD · Q2 10:52
Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to Mojo Dortch for 7 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)
+6.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com