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ULM

UL Monroe 13 at Troy 9

TROY
2024 · Week 5 · Sep 28, 2024 · Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)
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Win probability · TROY
modelTROY aheadULM aheadconfidence bandkey playTROY scoreULM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGFGFGFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 10:17 · Scott Taylor Renfroe 45 Yard Field Goal Missed
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+35.0+17.50−17.5−35.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 89Pregame prior+7.5Home team on offense+4.5Garbage-time factor+0.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.2Score differential+0.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.4
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 0:57: Scott Taylor Renfroe 49 yd FG GOOD — TROY win probability +5.4 pts (now 71%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 4:07: Max Larson 20 yd FG GOOD — ULM win probability +8.4 pts (now 47%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 14:36: Scott Taylor Renfroe 36 yd FG GOOD — TROY win probability +8.8 pts (now 73%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 9:08: Ahmad Hardy 1 Yd Run (Luke Stagg Kick) — ULM win probability +36.3 pts (now 73%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 3:24: Ahmad Hardy run for 5 yds to the TROY 47 — ULM win probability +19.5 pts (now 83%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TROY made the numbers' call on 5 of 7ULM made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 9:02TROY 4th & 7 at ULM 7, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 67.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.9%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.0%
    91% to make
    Punt
    66.1%−0.9
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:09ULM 4th & 12 at TROY 24, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 32.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.1%−0.5
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.6%
    68% to make
    Punt
    30.5%−2.1
    average punt
  3. Q2 12:21ULM 4th & 8 at ULM 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.4%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.7%
    average punt
  4. Q2 6:25TROY 4th & 10 at ULM 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 64.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    63.3%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    63.0%−0.3
    34% to make
    Punt
    63.1%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:57TROY 4th & 6 at ULM 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 64.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.0%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.3%
    54% to make
    Punt
    62.5%−1.8
    average punt
  6. Q3 13:35ULM 4th & 10 at ULM 25, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.3%−2.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.4%
    average punt
  7. Q3 10:17TROY 4th & 7 at ULM 27, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 68.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.4%−0.4
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.8%
    62% to make
    Punt
    61.7%−6.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 8:07ULM 4th & 1 at ULM 36, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    32.0%−2.2
    average punt
  9. Q3 4:07ULM 4th & 2 at TROY 2, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.5 ptsKicked a field goal · 35.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.0%−2.5
    94% to make
    Punt
    21.8%−13.7
    average punt
  10. Q4 14:36TROY 4th & 3 at ULM 18, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 62.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.6%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.4%−1.2
    79% to make
    Punt
    47.3%−15.2
    average punt
  11. Q4 7:44TROY 4th & 6 at TROY 25, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.9%−0.4
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.4%
    average punt
  12. Q4 5:05ULM 4th & 7 at ULM 43, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.3%−1.4
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.7%
    average punt
  13. Q4 3:30TROY 4th & 9 at TROY 11, down 4
    Close callPunted · 29.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.7%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.5%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ULM made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q4 9:08ULM Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.2%−0.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TROYDrive 1FG
14 plays · 68 yds · 5:5868% → 68%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
67.9%
Troy Penalty, Offensive Holding (Brody Dalton) to the TROY 18Similar
Q1 14:48
1ST & 17
OWN 18
+12
67.9%
Damien Taylor run for 12 yds to the TROY 30Similar
Q1 14:32
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
67.9%
Damien Taylor run for 4 yds to the TROY 34Similar
Q1 13:59
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
67.8%
Damien Taylor run for 2 yds to the TROY 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
67.8%
Damien Taylor run for 1 yd to the TROY 37Similar
Q1 12:49
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+14
67.7%
Goose Crowder pass complete to Zeriah Beason for 14 yds to the ULM 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:36
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+15
67.9%
UL Monroe Penalty, Roughing the Passer on SHORTER, Tristan enforced (15 Yards) to the ULM 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:16
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+14
68.0%
Gerald Green run for 14 yds to the ULM 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:37
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+9
68.0%
Tucker Kilcrease run for 9 yds to the ULM 11Similar
Q1 10:56
2ND & 1
OPP 11
+3
68.0%
Damien Taylor run for 3 yds to the ULM 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-5
68.0%
run for a loss of 5 yards to the ULM 13Similar
Q1 9:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 13
+6
68.0%
Damien Taylor run for 6 yds to the ULM 7Similar
Q1 9:12
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
67.9%
Troy Penalty, intentional grounding (Yards) to the ULM 6Similar
Q1 9:02
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+37
68.1%
Scott Taylor Renfroe 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 2FG
13 plays · 51 yds · 5:5132% → 34%
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
67.8%
Ahmad Hardy run for 9 yds to the ULM 34Similar
Q1 8:38
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+3
67.4%
Ahmad Hardy run for 3 yds to the ULM 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
67.5%
(08:04) BOOTY, General pass short to the left incomplete dropped by CAMPBELL, Javon thrown to the ULM41, clock 08:00. PENALTY TROY Roughing the Passer on PETERSON, Julian enforced 15 yards from the ULM37 to the TROY48 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
67.1%
Ahmad Hardy run for 1 yd to the TROY 47Similar
Q1 7:23
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+8
67.0%
General Booty pass complete to Wesley Campbell VI for 8 yds to the TROY 39Similar
Q1 6:43
3RD & 1
OPP 39
+4
66.8%
Hunter Herring run for 4 yds to the TROY 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:57
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
66.5%
Ahmad Hardy run for 3 yds to the TROY 32Similar
Q1 5:15
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+10
66.2%
Ahmad Hardy run for 10 yds to the TROY 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:47
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-3
66.1%
James Jones run for a loss of 3 yards to the TROY 25Similar
Q1 4:02
2ND & 13
OPP 25
+1
66.3%
James Jones run for 1 yd to the TROY 24Similar
Q1 3:20
3RD & 12
OPP 24
0
66.7%
General Booty pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:09
4TH & 12
OPP 24
+42
66.0%
Max Larson 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 9 yds · 3:4967% → 65%
Q1 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
66.5%
Gerald Green run for 13 yds to the TROY 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+23
67.2%
Gerald Green run for 23 yds to the ULM 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:57
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-10
67.9%
(01:57) GREEN, Gerald rush up the middle for a gain of 4 yards to the ULM35 (SHORTER, Tristan;HOLMES, Kelbee), clock 01:50. PENALTY TROY Holding on KING, Daniel enforced 10 yards from the ULM39 to the ULM49 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 1:27
1ST & 20
OPP 49
+10
67.2%
(01:27) CROWDER, Goose sacked for a loss of 17 yards at the TROY34, fumble on the sack (forced by SHORTER, Tristan), recovered by ULM HOWELL, Dylan at the TROY34, returned 0 yards to the TROY34, End of Play, clock 01:15. PENALTY ULM Holding on VIGERS, Car'lin enforced 10 yards from the ULM49 to the ULM39 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
67.9%
Tucker Kilcrease run for 3 yds to the ULM 36Similar
Q1 0:20
2ND & 7
OPP 36
-16
67.9%
run for a loss of 16 yards to the TROY 48 fumbled, recovered by TROY Tucker Kilcrease T. Kilcrease return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 23
OWN 48
-14
66.1%
run for a loss of 14 yards to the TROY 34 fumbled, recovered by TROY Tucker Kilcrease T. Kilcrease return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q2 14:19
4TH & 37
OWN 34
+9
65.1%
Robert Cole punt for 45 yds , Davon Wells returns for 9 yds to the ULM 43 Troy Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (-15 Yards) to the ULM 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 1:5037% → 36%
Q2 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
63.3%
James Jones run for 6 yds to the TROY 49Similar
Q2 13:33
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+1
62.7%
Ahmad Hardy run for 1 yd to the TROY 48Similar
Q2 12:47
3RD & 3
OPP 48
-5
62.4%
UL Monroe Penalty, Illegal Substitution (Tyler Griffin) to the ULM 47Similar
Q2 12:26
3RD & 8
OWN 47
0
63.3%
General Booty pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:21
4TH & 8
OWN 47
0
64.3%
Makenzie Ryan punt for 38 yds, downed at the TROY 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 5DOWNS
13 plays · 45 yds · 5:5166% → 65%
Q2 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
65.9%
Damien Taylor run for 3 yds to the TROY 18Similar
Q2 11:42
2ND & 7
OWN 18
+14
65.8%
Damien Taylor run for 14 yds to the TROY 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
66.1%
Damien Taylor run for 5 yds to the TROY 37Similar
Q2 10:26
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+5
67.0%
Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to Devonte Ross for 5 yds to the TROY 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
67.3%
Tucker Kilcrease pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:41
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+3
66.6%
Damien Taylor run for 3 yds to the TROY 45Similar
Q2 9:07
3RD & 7
OWN 45
+15
66.5%
(09:07) KILCREASE, Tucker pass deep to the left incomplete dropped by ROSS, Devonte thrown to the ULM34; QB hurried by PULLEN, Billy, clock 08:59. PENALTY ULM Roughing the Passer on KNUDSEN, Daniel enforced 15 yards from the TROY45 to the ULM40 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 8:59
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-1
68.0%
Gerald Green run for a loss of 1 yard to the ULM 41Similar
Q2 8:23
2ND & 11
OPP 41
+3
67.7%
Gerald Green run for 3 yds to the ULM 38Similar
Q2 7:38
3RD & 8
OPP 38
-10
67.1%
Troy Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the ULM 47Similar
Q2 7:16
3RD & 17
OPP 47
+7
65.4%
Tucker Kilcrease run for 7 yds to the ULM 40Similar
Q2 6:25
4TH & 10
OPP 40
0
64.5%
Tucker Kilcrease pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 6INT
3 plays · 13 yds · 1:2740% → 41%
Q2 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
59.6%
Ahmad Hardy run for 8 yds to the ULM 48Similar
Q2 5:33
2ND & 2
OWN 48
+5
59.0%
Ahmad Hardy run for 5 yds to the TROY 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:51
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
58.7%
General Booty pass intercepted Justin Powe return for no gain to the TROY 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 7FG
14 plays · 47 yds · 3:4765% → 71%
Q2 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
64.6%
Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to Brody Dalton for 5 yds to the TROY 27Similar
Q2 4:10
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+4
64.8%
Gerald Green run for 4 yds to the TROY 31Similar
Q2 3:35
3RD & 1
OWN 31
+13
64.4%
Gerald Green run for 13 yds to the TROY 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
66.7%
Gerald Green run for 3 yds to the TROY 47Similar
Q2 2:34
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+2
66.5%
Damien Taylor run for 2 yds to the TROY 49Similar
Q2 2:03
3RD & 5
OWN 49
+16
65.1%
Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to Zeriah Beason for 16 yds to the ULM 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:56
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
67.9%
Tucker Kilcrease pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:51
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+4
67.7%
Damien Taylor run for 4 yds to the ULM 31Similar
Q2 1:11
3RD & 6
OPP 31
+5
66.7%
Tucker Kilcrease run for 5 yds to the ULM 26Similar
Q2 1:03
4TH & 1
OPP 26
-5
65.2%
Troy Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the ULM 31Similar
Q2 0:57
4TH & 6
OPP 31
+49
70.9%
Scott Taylor Renfroe 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 8END OF HALF
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:5227% → 25%
Q2 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
72.6%
Ahmad Hardy run for 4 yds to the ULM 29Similar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-1
73.6%
Ahmad Hardy run for a loss of 1 yard to the ULM 28Similar
Q2 0:05
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-5
74.7%
UL Monroe Penalty, Delay Of Game (Tyler Griffin) to the ULM 23Similar
Q2 0:04
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+10
75.2%
Aidan Armenta run for 10 yds to the ULM 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:2533% → 31%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
66.8%
Aidan Armenta pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
67.1%
Ahmad Hardy run for a loss of 5 yards to the ULM 20Similar
Q3 14:10
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+5
68.4%
Aidan Armenta pass complete to Taven Curry for 5 yds to the ULM 25Similar
Q3 13:35
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+13
69.2%
Makenzie Ryan punt for 43 yds , Devonte Ross returns for 13 yds to the TROY 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 10MISSED FG
8 plays · 28 yds · 3:1270% → 66%
Q3 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+25
70.0%
Tucker Kilcrease run for 25 yds to the ULM 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:49
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
71.1%
Damien Taylor run for 1 yd to the ULM 29Similar
Q3 12:17
2ND & 9
OPP 29
+5
70.9%
Damien Taylor run for 5 yds to the ULM 24Similar
Q3 11:38
3RD & 4
OPP 24
-10
70.0%
(11:38) KILCREASE, Tucker scrambles to the left for no gain to the ULM24 (GLASS JR., Carl), out of bounds, clock 11:30. PENALTY TROY Holding on TAYLOR, Damien enforced 10 yards from the ULM24 to the ULM34 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 11:07
3RD & 14
OPP 34
+7
69.0%
Tucker Kilcrease run for 7 yds to the ULM 27Similar
Q3 10:17
4TH & 7
OPP 27
+45
68.8%
Scott Taylor Renfroe 45 Yard Field Goal MissedSimilar
Q3 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-5
65.6%
UL Monroe Penalty, False Start (Que McBroom) to the ULM 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 11FG
10 plays · 71 yds · 6:0534% → 47%
Q3 10:12
1ST & 15
OWN 22
+7
66.3%
Ahmad Hardy run for 7 yds to the ULM 29Similar
Q3 9:33
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+1
65.6%
Ahmad Hardy run for 1 yd to the ULM 30Similar
Q3 8:52
3RD & 7
OWN 30
+6
66.7%
Aidan Armenta pass complete to Nate Sullivan Jr. for 6 yds to the ULM 36Similar
Q3 8:07
4TH & 1
OWN 36
+19
66.2%
Hunter Herring pass complete to Julian Nixon for 19 yds to the TROY 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:19
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+40
61.5%
Aidan Armenta pass complete to Tyler Griffin for 40 yds to the TROY 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
59.4%
Ahmad Hardy run for 2 yds to the TROY 3Similar
Q3 5:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
60.0%
Hunter Herring run for 1 yd to the TROY 2Similar
Q3 5:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
61.8%
Bennett Galloway run for no gain to the TROY 2Similar
Q3 4:07
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+20
53.4%
Max Larson 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 12FG
10 plays · 59 yds · 4:2661% → 73%
Q3 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+16
60.6%
Gerald Green run for 16 yds to the TROY 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
62.6%
Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to Peyton Higgins for 7 yds to the TROY 46Similar
Q3 2:43
2ND & 3
OWN 46
+16
64.3%
Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to Devonte Ross for 16 yds to the ULM 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:04
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
65.2%
Tucker Kilcrease run for 1 yd to the ULM 37Similar
Q3 1:44
2ND & 9
OPP 37
+7
65.0%
Gerald Green run for 7 yds to the ULM 30Similar
Q3 1:06
3RD & 2
OPP 30
+5
64.8%
Gerald Green run for 5 yds to the ULM 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:21
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
66.4%
Matthew Caldwell pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:16
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+2
66.2%
Damien Taylor run for 2 yds to the ULM 23Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 23
+5
64.5%
Devonte Ross run for 5 yds to the ULM 18Similar
Q4 14:36
4TH & 3
OPP 18
+36
73.3%
Scott Taylor Renfroe 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 13TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 5:2831% → 73%
Q4 14:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
68.8%
UL Monroe Penalty, False Start (Carter Miller) to the ULM 20Similar
Q4 14:35
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+11
69.1%
Ahmad Hardy run for 11 yds to the ULM 31Similar
Q4 14:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+10
66.9%
Ahmad Hardy run for 10 yds to the ULM 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-4
65.8%
Davon Wells run for a loss of 4 yards to the ULM 37Similar
Q4 12:33
2ND & 14
OWN 37
0
69.2%
Aidan Armenta pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:27
3RD & 14
OWN 37
+57
70.2%
Aidan Armenta pass complete to Jake Godfrey for 57 yds to the TROY 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
63.3%
Ahmad Hardy run for 1 yd to the TROY 5Similar
Q4 11:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
63.3%
HERRING, Hunter pass short to the right incomplete intended for WELLS, Davon thrown to the TROY0. PENALTY TROY Pass Interference on HENRY, Trent enforced 3 yards to the TROY2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 10:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
63.2%
Hunter Herring run for 1 yd to the TROY 1Similar
Q4 9:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
26.9%
Ahmad Hardy 1 Yd Run (Luke Stagg Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:1539% → 35%
Q4 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-1
38.5%
Damien Taylor run for a loss of 1 yard to the TROY 20Similar
Q4 8:27
2ND & 11
OWN 20
+5
37.8%
Damien Taylor run for 5 yds to the TROY 25Similar
Q4 7:48
3RD & 6
OWN 25
0
36.4%
Tucker Kilcrease pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:44
4TH & 6
OWN 25
0
35.0%
Robert Cole punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Davon Wells at the ULM 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 2:3072% → 74%
Q4 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-2
27.6%
Ahmad Hardy run for a loss of 2 yards to the ULM 38Similar
Q4 6:56
2ND & 12
OWN 38
+6
27.0%
Ahmad Hardy run for 6 yds to the ULM 44Similar
Q4 6:14
3RD & 6
OWN 44
-5
24.9%
UL Monroe Penalty, False Start (Jay Mickle) to the ULM 39Similar
Q4 5:52
3RD & 11
OWN 39
+4
25.8%
Ahmad Hardy run for 4 yds to the ULM 43Similar
Q4 5:05
4TH & 7
OWN 43
0
26.1%
Makenzie Ryan punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Devonte Ross at the TROY 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:2840% → 36%
Q4 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-18
40.3%
Troy Penalty, Offensive Holding (-18 Yards) to the TROY 6Similar
Q4 4:42
1ST & 14
OWN 6
0
38.7%
Gerald Green run for no gain to the TROY 6Similar
Q4 4:13
2ND & 14
OWN 6
+8
37.7%
Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to Devonte Ross for 8 yds to the TROY 14Similar
Q4 3:46
3RD & 6
OWN 14
-3
37.6%
Tucker Kilcrease run for a loss of 3 yards to the TROY 11Similar
Q4 3:30
4TH & 9
OWN 11
0
36.4%
Robert Cole punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Davon Wells at the ULM 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 17END OF GAME
12 plays · 17 yds · 2:4483% → 96%
Q4 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
16.8%
Ahmad Hardy run for 5 yds to the TROY 47Similar
Q4 2:39
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+3
13.7%
Ahmad Hardy run for 3 yds to the TROY 44Similar
Q4 2:33
3RD & 2
OPP 44
+4
12.8%
Ahmad Hardy run for 4 yds to the TROY 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:27
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
10.4%
Ahmad Hardy run for 4 yds to the TROY 36Similar
Q4 2:22
2ND & 6
OPP 36
-1
10.5%
Ahmad Hardy run for a loss of 1 yard to the TROY 37Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 7
OPP 37
+12
8.2%
Ahmad Hardy run for 12 yds to the TROY 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:24
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-6
5.7%
(01:24) [NH] Kneel down by ULM at TROY31 (team loss of 6), clock 01:18.Similar
Q4 0:40
2ND & 16
OPP 31
-4
4.2%
(00:40) [NH] Kneel down by ULM at TROY35 (team loss of 4), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 9:08
Ahmad Hardy 1 Yd Run (Luke Stagg Kick)
-36.3
KEY PLAY · Q4 3:24
Ahmad Hardy run for 5 yds to the TROY 47
-19.5
FG · Q4 14:36
Scott Taylor Renfroe 36 yd FG GOOD
+8.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com