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WMU

Western Michigan 20 at Marshall 27

MRSH
2024 · Week 5 · Sep 28, 2024 · Joan C. Edwards Stadium
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Win probability · MRSH
modelMRSH aheadWMU aheadconfidence bandkey playMRSH scoreWMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDTDFGTDFGTDEnd of GameFG-9.5MRSH 48.1%Luka Zurak 45 yd FG GOODAWAY 20 - HOME 20 · Q4 12:47
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 12:47 · Luka Zurak 45 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame priorGarbage-time factorDefense timeouts
+26.5+13.30−13.3−26.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 125Home team on offense−5.7Score differential−3.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.1Pregame prior+0.7Garbage-time factor+0.0Defense timeouts−0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 2:41: Stone Earle pass complete to Carl Chester for 7 yds for a TD (Rece Verhoff KICK) — MRSH win probability +8.1 pts (now 82%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 10:41: Jaden Nixon run for 36 yds for a TD (Luka Zurak KICK) — WMU win probability +12.1 pts (now 34%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 0:53: Hayden Wolff pass complete to Blake Bosma for 3 yds for a TD (Luka Zurak KICK) — WMU win probability +19.1 pts (now 45%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 12:47: Luka Zurak 45 yd FG GOOD — WMU win probability +9.5 pts (now 52%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:39: Stone Earle pass complete to Christian Fitzpatrick for 34 yds for a TD (Rece Verhoff KICK) — MRSH win probability +34.2 pts (now 92%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MRSH made the numbers' call on 4 of 7WMU made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 10:41WMU 4th & 15 at WMU 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.4%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:00MRSH 4th & 7 at WMU 30, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 63.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.4%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.5%
    56% to make
    Punt
    63.2%−0.3
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:09WMU 4th & 7 at MRSH 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 36.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.5%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.5%
    60% to make
    Punt
    35.5%−1.0
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:54MRSH 4th & 1 at WMU 9, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 62.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    62.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    61.7%−1.0
    89% to make
    Punt
    58.8%−3.9
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:18MRSH 4th & 2 at WMU 2, up 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 62.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.1%−0.9
    94% to make
    Punt
    58.6%−4.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:15WMU 4th & 7 at WMU 38, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.3%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:59MRSH 4th & 1 at MRSH 33, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 68.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.9%−1.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:39WMU 4th & 18 at WMU 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.5%−1.7
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.2%
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:17WMU 4th & 13 at WMU 24, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.2%−1.3
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.4%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:24MRSH 4th & 8 at WMU 46, up 14
    Close callPunted · 80.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.2%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    80.3%
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    80.2%−0.2
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:52MRSH 4th & 7 at WMU 10, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 77.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.3%−0.6
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    77.0%
    88% to make
    Punt
    69.0%−8.0
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:52MRSH 4th & 8 at MRSH 26, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.6%−2.6
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.3%
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:47WMU 4th & 4 at MRSH 28, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 34.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.8%−0.5
    60% to make
    Punt
    24.5%−9.8
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:50WMU 4th & 3 at WMU 41, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    12.3%−1.8
    average punt
  15. Q4 3:45WMU 4th & 2 at MRSH 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    10.8%−3.2
    45% to make
    Punt
    8.1%−5.9
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:31WMU 4th & 3 at MRSH 7, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.5%
    46% to convert
    Field goal
    10.0%−2.5
    91% to make
    Punt
    6.0%−6.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MRSH made the numbers' call on 3 of 3WMU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 13:08MRSH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 2:41MRSH Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 10:41WMU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 0:53WMU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 7:39MRSH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.5%−1.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MRSHDrive 1TD
5 plays · 69 yds · 1:4354% → 55%
Q1 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
53.6%
Stone Earle pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:48
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+10
53.6%
Stone Earle run for 10 yds to the MRSH 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+19
53.7%
Stone Earle pass complete to Elijah Metcalf for 19 yds to the WMU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:49
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+8
53.9%
Stone Earle pass complete to Tychaun Chapman for 8 yds to the WMU 32Similar
Q1 13:08
2ND & 2
OPP 32
+32
54.7%
Stone Earle pass complete to Toby Payne for 32 yds for a TD (Rece Verhoff KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 2:2246% → 44%
Q1 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
54.5%
Jaden Nixon run for 3 yds to the WMU 28Similar
Q1 12:40
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+8
54.6%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Kenneth Womack for 8 yds to the WMU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-5
54.9%
Jaden Nixon run for a loss of 5 yards to the WMU 31Similar
Q1 11:30
2ND & 15
OWN 31
0
55.3%
Hayden Wolff pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:28
3RD & 15
OWN 31
0
55.4%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Kenneth Womack for no gain to the WMU 31Similar
Q1 10:41
4TH & 15
OWN 31
+12
55.9%
Ryan Millmore punt for 35 yds , Elijah Metcalf returns for 12 yds to the MRSH 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 3MISSED FG
8 plays · 24 yds · 2:4256% → 57%
Q1 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+10
56.0%
Tychaun Chapman run for 10 yds to the WMU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:02
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
56.5%
A.J. Turner run for 5 yds to the WMU 39Similar
Q1 9:32
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+6
56.8%
Stone Earle run for 6 yds to the WMU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:49
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
56.8%
Stone Earle pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:47
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+3
56.7%
Jordan Houston run for 3 yds to the WMU 30Similar
Q1 8:05
3RD & 7
OPP 30
0
57.4%
Stone Earle pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:00
4TH & 7
OPP 30
+48
57.0%
Rece Verhoff 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 4FG
8 plays · 42 yds · 1:4743% → 45%
Q1 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+26
56.9%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Anthony Sambucci for 26 yds to the MRSH 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:26
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+13
56.4%
Jaden Nixon run for 13 yds to the MRSH 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
56.3%
Jaden Nixon run for 3 yds to the MRSH 28Similar
Q1 6:18
2ND & 7
OPP 28
0
55.9%
Hayden Wolff pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:17
3RD & 7
OPP 28
0
56.5%
Hayden Wolff pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:09
4TH & 7
OPP 28
+45
55.1%
Luka Zurak 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 5FG
17 plays · 77 yds · 8:4856% → 65%
Q1 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
55.7%
A.J. Turner run for 2 yds to the MRSH 23Similar
Q1 5:22
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+1
55.8%
Stone Earle run for 1 yd to the MRSH 24Similar
Q1 4:43
3RD & 7
OWN 24
+9
55.6%
Stone Earle run for 9 yds to the MRSH 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
56.1%
Stone Earle pass complete to Jordan Houston for 6 yds to the MRSH 39Similar
Q1 4:02
2ND & 4
OWN 39
+11
56.9%
Jordan Houston run for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:41
1ST & 10
50
+12
56.8%
Stone Earle pass complete to Elijah Metcalf for 12 yds to the WMU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:06
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+9
57.1%
Ethan Payne run for 9 yds to the WMU 29Similar
Q1 2:25
2ND & 1
OPP 29
+11
57.2%
Stone Earle run for 11 yds to the WMU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
57.3%
A.J. Turner run for 3 yds to the WMU 15Similar
Q1 1:08
2ND & 7
OPP 15
-5
57.5%
Stone Earle sacked by Armani-Eli Adams for a loss of 5 yards to the WMU 20Similar
Q1 0:39
3RD & 12
OPP 20
+5
57.1%
Western Michigan Penalty, Offsides (5 Yards) to the WMU 15Similar
Q1 0:19
3RD & 7
OPP 15
+6
57.4%
Stone Earle pass complete to Christian Fitzpatrick for 6 yds to the WMU 9Similar
Q2 14:54
4TH & 1
OPP 9
+4
56.7%
Ethan Payne run for 4 yds to the WMU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
58.0%
Stone Earle run for 1 yd to the WMU 4Similar
Q2 13:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
58.2%
Stone Earle run for 1 yd to the WMU 3Similar
Q2 12:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
59.3%
Ethan Payne run for 1 yd to the WMU 2Similar
Q2 12:18
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+20
64.7%
Rece Verhoff 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 1:5638% → 37%
Q2 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
61.9%
Zahir Abdus-Salaam run for 3 yds to the WMU 23Similar
Q2 11:32
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+12
62.2%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Anthony Sambucci for 12 yds to the WMU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
61.8%
Hayden Wolff pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:00
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+3
62.1%
Jaden Nixon run for 3 yds to the WMU 38Similar
Q2 10:22
3RD & 7
OWN 38
0
62.2%
Hayden Wolff pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:15
4TH & 7
OWN 38
+4
63.3%
Ryan Millmore punt for 52 yds , Elijah Metcalf returns for 4 yds to the MRSH 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 3:1167% → 68%
Q2 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
67.0%
A.J. Turner run for no gain to the MRSH 14Similar
Q2 9:40
2ND & 10
OWN 14
0
67.8%
Stone Earle pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:26
3RD & 10
OWN 14
+10
67.3%
Stone Earle pass complete to Carl Chester for 10 yds to the MRSH 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
67.8%
Stone Earle pass complete to Elijah Metcalf for 3 yds to the MRSH 27Similar
Q2 8:15
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+1
67.7%
Jordan Houston run for 1 yd to the MRSH 28Similar
Q2 7:39
3RD & 6
OWN 28
+5
68.2%
Stone Earle run for 5 yds to the MRSH 33Similar
Q2 6:59
4TH & 1
OWN 33
0
68.2%
Alec Clark punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Bugs Mortimer at the WMU 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 29 yds · 2:1833% → 31%
Q2 6:57
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+15
66.7%
Marshall Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the WMU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
65.8%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Kenneth Womack for 5 yds to the WMU 44Similar
Q2 6:22
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+11
65.3%
Jaden Nixon run for 11 yds to the MRSH 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:52
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-15
64.9%
Western Michigan Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the WMU 40Similar
Q2 5:30
2ND & 25
OWN 40
+7
67.3%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Anthony Sambucci for 7 yds to the WMU 47Similar
Q2 5:10
3RD & 18
OWN 47
0
67.8%
Hayden Wolff pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:39
4TH & 18
OWN 47
0
68.9%
Ryan Millmore punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 9TD
6 plays · 86 yds · 1:4972% → 82%
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+9
72.2%
Jordan Houston run for 9 yds to the MRSH 23Similar
Q2 3:55
2ND & 1
OWN 23
+3
72.2%
Jordan Houston run for 3 yds to the MRSH 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
72.4%
Stone Earle pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:29
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+67
72.1%
A.J. Turner run for 67 yds to the WMU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
73.4%
Stone Earle pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
81.5%
Stone Earle pass complete to Carl Chester for 7 yds for a TD (Rece Verhoff KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:1522% → 20%
Q2 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
77.9%
Hayden Wolff pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:25
2ND & 10
OWN 27
-3
78.4%
Zahir Abdus-Salaam run for a loss of 3 yards to the WMU 24Similar
Q2 2:22
3RD & 13
OWN 24
0
78.9%
Hayden Wolff pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:17
4TH & 13
OWN 24
0
79.7%
Ryan Millmore punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Elijah Metcalf at the MRSH 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 1:4883% → 83%
Q2 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
83.4%
Stone Earle pass complete to Christian Fitzpatrick for 6 yds to the MRSH 44Similar
Q2 1:57
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+1
82.8%
Jordan Houston run for 1 yd to the MRSH 45Similar
Q2 1:18
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+7
82.6%
Jordan Houston run for 7 yds to the WMU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
84.4%
Jordan Houston run for 2 yds to the WMU 46Similar
Q2 0:31
2ND & 8
OPP 46
0
84.6%
Stone Earle run for no gain to the WMU 46Similar
Q2 0:25
3RD & 8
OPP 46
0
83.8%
Stone Earle pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:24
4TH & 8
OPP 46
0
83.0%
Alec Clark punt for 37 yds, downed at the WMU 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · 1 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q2 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+1
80.4%
Zahir Abdus-Salaam run for 1 yd to the WMU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 13TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 4:1021% → 34%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
78.7%
Jaden Nixon run for 4 yds to the WMU 29Similar
Q3 14:24
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+6
78.4%
Jaden Nixon run for 6 yds to the WMU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
78.7%
Jaden Nixon run for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:18
1ST & 10
50
+5
77.5%
Marshall Penalty, Sideline Interference (5 Yards) to the MRSH 45Similar
Q3 13:08
1ST & 5
OPP 45
+1
77.1%
Zahir Abdus-Salaam run for 1 yd to the MRSH 44Similar
Q3 12:34
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+4
77.5%
Zahir Abdus-Salaam run for 4 yds to the MRSH 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:57
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
78.6%
Zahir Abdus-Salaam run for 4 yds to the MRSH 36Similar
Q3 11:25
2ND & 6
OPP 36
0
78.4%
Jaden Nixon run for no gain to the MRSH 36Similar
Q3 10:41
3RD & 6
OPP 36
+36
66.3%
Jaden Nixon run for 36 yds for a TD (Luka Zurak KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 14FG
12 plays · 58 yds · 4:4870% → 78%
Q3 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
69.7%
A.J. Turner run for 6 yds to the MRSH 38Similar
Q3 10:27
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+15
71.8%
Stone Earle run for 15 yds to the WMU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:12
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
72.7%
A.J. Turner run for 5 yds to the WMU 42Similar
Q3 9:35
2ND & 5
OPP 42
0
74.5%
Stone Earle pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:26
3RD & 5
OPP 42
+5
73.5%
Stone Earle pass complete to Carl Chester for 5 yds to the WMU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:53
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
74.9%
Jordan Houston run for 4 yds to the WMU 33Similar
Q3 8:21
2ND & 6
OPP 33
+2
75.5%
Stone Earle run for 2 yds to the WMU 31Similar
Q3 7:38
3RD & 4
OPP 31
+18
75.9%
Stone Earle pass complete to Elijah Metcalf for 18 yds to the WMU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
77.3%
Tychaun Chapman run for 3 yds to the WMU 10Similar
Q3 6:25
2ND & 7
OPP 10
0
77.5%
Stone Earle pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:20
3RD & 7
OPP 10
0
76.5%
Stone Earle run for no gain to the WMU 10Similar
Q3 5:52
4TH & 7
OPP 10
+28
77.7%
Rece Verhoff 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 15TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 4:5723% → 45%
Q3 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
76.7%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Blake Bosma for 8 yds to the WMU 33Similar
Q3 5:15
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+2
75.5%
Zahir Abdus-Salaam run for 2 yds to the WMU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+22
77.0%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Kenneth Womack for 22 yds to the MRSH 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:18
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+10
74.7%
Jaden Nixon run for 10 yds to the MRSH 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:25
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
73.9%
Zahir Abdus-Salaam run for 5 yds to the MRSH 28Similar
Q3 2:55
2ND & 5
OPP 28
+3
73.5%
Zahir Abdus-Salaam run for 3 yds to the MRSH 25Similar
Q3 2:17
3RD & 2
OPP 25
+4
75.2%
Zahir Abdus-Salaam run for 4 yds to the MRSH 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+18
74.0%
Jaden Nixon run for 18 yds to the MRSH 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
54.9%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Blake Bosma for 3 yds for a TD (Luka Zurak KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:4763% → 60%
Q3 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-1
62.7%
Stone Earle run for a loss of 1 yard to the MRSH 23 Stone Earle fumbled, recovered by MRSH Stone Earle S. Earle return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q3 0:01
2ND & 11
OWN 23
+3
62.2%
Stone Earle pass complete to Christian Fitzpatrick for 3 yds to the MRSH 26Similar
Q4 14:56
3RD & 8
OWN 26
0
60.8%
Stone Earle pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:52
4TH & 8
OWN 26
+27
59.6%
Alec Clark punt for 35 yds , Bugs Mortimer returns for 27 yds to the MRSH 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 17FG
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:5544% → 52%
Q4 14:42
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
56.1%
Zahir Abdus-Salaam run for 5 yds to the MRSH 29Similar
Q4 14:06
2ND & 5
OPP 29
+2
55.5%
Zahir Abdus-Salaam run for 2 yds to the MRSH 27Similar
Q4 13:27
3RD & 3
OPP 27
-1
57.6%
Jaden Nixon run for a loss of 1 yard to the MRSH 28Similar
Q4 12:47
4TH & 4
OPP 28
+45
48.1%
Luka Zurak 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 18FUMBLE
2 plays · 6 yds · 0:2954% → 58%
Q4 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
54.1%
Stone Earle pass complete to A.J. Turner for 8 yds to the MRSH 43Similar
Q4 12:15
2ND & 2
OWN 43
-2
58.2%
Stone Earle run for a loss of 2 yards to the MRSH 41 Stone Earle fumbled, recovered by WMU Jayden Childers J. Childers return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 19FUMBLE
8 plays · 11 yds · 3:2956% → 52%
Q4 12:11
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
44.5%
Zahir Abdus-Salaam run for 3 yds to the MRSH 38Similar
Q4 11:36
2ND & 7
OPP 38
+6
44.2%
Jaden Nixon run for 6 yds to the MRSH 32Similar
Q4 10:49
3RD & 1
OPP 32
+3
45.4%
Jaden Nixon run for 3 yds to the MRSH 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:08
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
42.4%
Zahir Abdus-Salaam run for 1 yd to the MRSH 28Similar
Q4 9:31
2ND & 9
OPP 28
-2
41.7%
Jaden Nixon run for a loss of 2 yards to the MRSH 30Similar
Q4 8:42
3RD & 11
OPP 30
0
47.7%
Hayden Wolff run for no gain to the MRSH 30 Hayden Wolff fumbled, recovered by MRSH Jaden Yates J. Yates return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 20TD
3 plays · 70 yds · 0:5953% → 92%
Q4 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+14
53.4%
A.J. Turner run for 14 yds to the MRSH 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+22
57.7%
A.J. Turner run for 22 yds to the WMU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:39
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+34
91.9%
Stone Earle pass complete to Christian Fitzpatrick for 34 yds for a TD (Rece Verhoff KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 21DOWNS
24 plays · 68 yds · 7:0616% → 15%
Q4 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
83.8%
(07:37) WOLFF, Hayden pass to the left incomplete dropped by SAMBUCCI, Anthony thrown to the WMU37; QB hurried by GREEN, Mike, clock 07:33. PENALTY WMU Holding on GIDEON, Jacob enforced 10 yards from the WMU25 to the WMU15 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 7:31
1ST & 20
OWN 15
0
84.1%
Hayden Wolff pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:22
2ND & 20
OWN 15
+4
84.6%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Jaden Nixon for 4 yds to the WMU 19Similar
Q4 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
83.6%
Hayden Wolff pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:36
3RD & 16
OWN 19
+15
86.0%
Marshall Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Jacobie Henderson) to the WMU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:29
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+7
84.7%
Zahir Abdus-Salaam run for 7 yds to the WMU 41Similar
Q4 5:52
3RD & 3
OWN 41
0
83.8%
Hayden Wolff pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:50
4TH & 3
OWN 41
+3
85.8%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Kenneth Womack for 3 yds fumbled, forced by J.J. Roberts, recovered by WMU Zahir Abdus-Salaam Z. Abdus-Salaam return for 0 yds for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+13
83.2%
Jaden Nixon run for 13 yds to the MRSH 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:03
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
81.7%
Malique Dieudonne run for no gain to the MRSH 43Similar
Q4 4:21
2ND & 10
OPP 43
0
82.8%
Hayden Wolff pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:13
3RD & 10
OPP 43
+8
83.9%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Blake Bosma for 8 yds to the MRSH 35Similar
Q4 3:45
4TH & 2
OPP 35
+11
85.3%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Anthony Sambucci for 11 yds to the MRSH 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:08
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
80.2%
Jaden Nixon run for 5 yds to the MRSH 19Similar
Q4 2:33
2ND & 5
OPP 19
+1
79.9%
Jaden Nixon run for 1 yd to the MRSH 18Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 4
OPP 18
+4
81.8%
Zahir Abdus-Salaam run for 4 yds to the MRSH 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:23
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
79.1%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Blake Bosma for 4 yds to the MRSH 10Similar
Q4 0:58
2ND & 6
OPP 10
+5
79.2%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Kenneth Womack for 5 yds to the MRSH 5Similar
Q4 0:37
3RD & 1
OPP 5
-2
82.7%
Jaden Nixon run for a loss of 2 yards to the MRSH 7Similar
Q4 0:31
4TH & 3
OPP 7
0
84.7%
Hayden Wolff pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 22END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 7
-2
98.4%
(00:31) [NH] Kneel down by MAR at MAR5 (team loss of 2), clock 00:27.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 7:39
Stone Earle pass complete to Christian Fitzpatrick for 34 yds for a TD (Rece Verhoff KICK)
+34.2
TD · Q3 0:53
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Blake Bosma for 3 yds for a TD (Luka Zurak KICK)
-19.1
TD · Q3 10:41
Jaden Nixon run for 36 yds for a TD (Luka Zurak KICK)
-12.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com