2024 · Week 5 · Sep 28, 2024 · Bridgeforth Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Win probability · JMU
modelJMU aheadBALL aheadconfidence bandkey playJMU scoreBALL score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 9:21 · Brian Cooey Jr. punt for 45 yds , Yamir Knight returns for 19 yds to the JMU 41
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 6:54: George Pettaway run for 24 yds for a TD (PAT RUSH by T. Thompson GOOD) — JMU win probability +1.4 pts (now 91%) (top driver: JMU has the ball).
- TD · Q1 3:34: Kadin Semonza pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 15 yds for a TD (Carson Holmer KICK) — BALL win probability +1.6 pts (now 12%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
- TD · Q1 1:51: Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Omarion Dollison for 5 yds for a TD (Noe Ruelas KICK) — JMU win probability +2.3 pts (now 90%) (top driver: JMU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 4:20: Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Yamir Knight for 10 yds for a TD (Noe Ruelas KICK) — JMU win probability +4.8 pts (now 96%) (top driver: JMU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 13:58: Kadin Semonza pass intercepted Eric O'Neill return for 27 yds for a TD (Noe Ruelas PAT MISSED) — JMU win probability +3.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
JMU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1BALL made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
- Q1 2:20JMU 4th & 4 at BALL 35, up 8Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 89.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call89.7%48% to convertField goal89.5%−0.245% to makePunt89.3%−0.4average punt
- Q1 1:20BALL 4th & 1 at BALL 34, down 15Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call10.0%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt9.7%−0.3average punt
- Q2 8:52BALL 4th & 20 at JMU 34, down 15Close callWent for it · 8.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call8.2%−0.510% to convertField goal8.7%47% to makePunt8.5%−0.2average punt
- Q2 4:20BALL 4th & 1 at BALL 34, down 22Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call4.3%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt4.3%−0.1average punt
- Q3 11:04BALL 4th & 10 at JMU 45, down 28Close callWent for it · 0.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.6%−0.130% to convertField goal0.5%−0.225% to makePunt0.7%average punt
- Q3 8:01BALL 4th & 2 at BALL 33, down 35Close callWent for it · 0.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.5%−<0.157% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.5%average punt
- Q3 0:08BALL 4th & 17 at JMU 44, down 42Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.115% to convertField goal0.1%−0.127% to makePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q4 9:21BALL 4th & 2 at BALL 33, down 49Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.157% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 0:27BALL 4th & 1 at BALL 34, down 56Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.171% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
JMU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9BALL made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 10:15JMU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call90.6%97% to makeGo for two90.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 6:54JMU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryClose callWent for two · convertedKick91.3%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call91.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 3:34BALL Touchdown, down 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call10.6%97% to makeGo for two10.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 1:51JMU Touchdown, up 14 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call91.4%97% to makeGo for two91.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:20JMU Touchdown, up 21 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.2%97% to makeGo for two96.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 13:58JMU Touchdown, up 28 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call99.5%97% to makeGo for two99.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 9:45JMU Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.6%97% to makeGo for two99.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:19JMU Touchdown, up 41 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 10:55JMU Touchdown, up 48 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 2:40JMU Touchdown, up 55 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%−<0.197% to makeGo for two100.0%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartJMUDrive 1TD11 plays · 66 yds · 4:3790% → 89%
Q1 14:52
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+10
89.7%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Omarion Dollison for 10 yds to the JMU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
89.7%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to George Pettaway for 4 yds to the JMU 48Similar
Q1 12:00
3RD & 6
OPP 37
+11
89.1%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Cam Ross for 11 yds to the BALL 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:50
2ND & 5
OPP 21
+9
88.9%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Cam Ross for 9 yds to the BALL 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
89.4%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Yamir Knight for 12 yds for a TD (Noe Ruelas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 2INT4 plays · 28 yds · 1:5711% → 11%
JMUDrive 3TD5 plays · 35 yds · 1:2489% → 91%
BALLDrive 4TD8 plays · 75 yds · 3:2010% → 12%
Q1 6:54
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+26
89.9%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 26 yds to the JMU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:54
3RD & 9
OPP 48
+15
89.8%
SEMONZA, Kadin pass deep to the left incomplete intended for MAGWOOD, Qian thrown to the JMU15. PENALTY JMU Pass Interference on THOMAS, Jacob enforced 15 yards to the JMU33 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 3:34
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
87.7%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 15 yds for a TD (Carson Holmer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 5TD9 plays · 75 yds · 1:2789% → 90%
Q1 3:18
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+18
88.5%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Omarion Dollison for 18 yds to the BALL 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:18
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
88.8%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Dylan Williams for 6 yds to the BALL 35Similar
Q1 2:20
4TH & 4
OPP 35
+30
88.1%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Logan Kyle for 30 yds to the BALL 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
90.3%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Omarion Dollison for 5 yds for a TD (Noe Ruelas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 6DOWNS19 plays · 34 yds · 7:5911% → 10%
Q1 1:51
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
88.8%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Cam Pickett for 5 yds to the BALL 30Similar
Q1 1:20
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+4
88.6%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 4 yds to the BALL 34Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+6
88.6%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 6 yds to the BALL 41Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+6
88.4%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Cam Pickett for 6 yds to the BALL 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-2
88.2%
Kadin Semonza sacked by Khairi Manns for a loss of 2 yards to the BALL 45Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 48
+12
88.3%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 12 yds to the JMU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:19
3RD & 4
OPP 34
+10
88.6%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 10 yds to the JMU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:35
2ND & 10
OPP 24
-10
88.5%
Kadin Semonza sacked by Eric O'Neill for a loss of 10 yards to the JMU 34Similar
Q2 8:52
4TH & 20
OPP 34
-7
89.7%
Kadin Semonza sacked by Khairi Manns for a loss of 7 yards to the JMU 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 7TD10 plays · 59 yds · 4:3291% → 96%
Q2 8:25
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+8
91.1%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Taylor Thompson for 8 yds to the BALL 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:48
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+16
90.9%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Taylor Thompson for 16 yds to the BALL 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:41
2ND & 8
OPP 31
-9
90.8%
Alonza Barnett III sacked by Sam Feeney for a loss of 9 yards to the BALL 40Similar
Q2 6:08
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
91.4%
BARNETT III, Alonza pass deep up the middle incomplete intended for KNIGHT, Yamir thrown to the BSU0. PENALTY BSU Offsides on CONLEY, Darin enforced 5 yards from the BSU23 to the BSU18 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 4:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
96.1%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Yamir Knight for 10 yds for a TD (Noe Ruelas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 8INT13 plays · 43 yds · 3:475% → 5%
Q2 4:20
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-1
94.9%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Tanner Koziol for a loss of 1 yard to the BALL 31Similar
Q2 4:20
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+3
95.0%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Cam Pickett for 3 yds to the BALL 34Similar
Q2 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-11
95.3%
Kadin Semonza sacked for a loss of 11 yards to the BALL 29 Kadin Semonza fumbled, recovered by BALL Damon Kaylor , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 21
OWN 29
+15
95.6%
SEMONZA, Kadin pass to the right incomplete intended for MAGWOOD, Qian broken up by BARKSDALE, DJ at the BSU40. PENALTY JMU Personal Foul on SUMMERALL III, Lloyd enforced 15 yards from the BSU29 to the BSU44 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 1:17
3RD & 8
OWN 46
+12
95.3%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Cam Pickett for 12 yds to the JMU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
94.8%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Cam Pickett for 4 yds to the JMU 38Similar
Q2 1:17
2ND & 6
OPP 38
+6
94.8%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Braedon Sloan for 6 yds to the JMU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
94.7%
Kadin Semonza pass intercepted DJ Barksdale return for no gain to the JMU 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 9END OF HALF5 plays · 42 yds · 0:3397% → 97%
BALLDrive 10INT TD4 plays · 4 yds · 1:024% → 1%
Q3 13:58
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-27
99.0%
Kadin Semonza pass intercepted Eric O'Neill return for 27 yds for a TD (Noe Ruelas PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 11DOWNS8 plays · 30 yds · 2:541% → 1%
Q3 13:58
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+19
99.1%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Dahya Patel for 19 yds to the JMU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 12TD4 plays · 55 yds · 1:1999% → 100%
BALLDrive 13DOWNS4 plays · 8 yds · 1:441% → 0%
JMUDrive 14TD2 plays · 33 yds · 0:42100% → 100%
BALLDrive 15PUNT13 plays · 31 yds · 7:110% → 0%
Q3 7:19
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+1
99.7%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 1 yd to the BALL 28Similar
Q3 7:19
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+14
99.7%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Cam Pickett for 14 yds to the BALL 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
99.7%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Cam Pickett for 4 yds to the BALL 46Similar
Q3 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
99.7%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 5 yds to the JMU 43Similar
Q3 3:55
3RD & 3
OPP 41
+4
99.7%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Malcolm Gillie for 4 yds to the JMU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:16
2ND & 10
OPP 37
-4
99.8%
Kadin Semonza sacked by Eric O'Neill for a loss of 4 yards to the JMU 41Similar
Q3 2:16
3RD & 14
OPP 41
-10
99.8%
SEMONZA, Kadin pass to the left complete for 11 yards to MAGWOOD, Qian caught at the JMU34 and advanced to the JMU30 (SHEARIN, Chris;DOBBS, Jacob). PENALTY BSU Holding on TYO, Taran enforced 10 yards from the JMU41 to the BSU49 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 16TD9 plays · 94 yds · 4:05100% → 100%
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 8
+11
99.8%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Maxwell Moss for 11 yds to the JMU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 21
-8
99.8%
Alonza Barnett III sacked by Sam Feeney for a loss of 8 yards to the JMU 13Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 16
OWN 13
+22
99.8%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Taylor Thompson for 22 yds to the JMU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:55
3RD & 4
OPP 22
+22
99.9%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Taylor Thompson for 22 yds for a TD (Noe Ruelas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 17PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 1:340% → 0%
JMUDrive 18TD11 plays · 59 yds · 6:41100% → 100%
Q4 8:58
2ND & 4
OWN 47
+6
99.9%
Dylan Morris pass complete to Dylan Williams for 6 yds to the BALL 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:28
2ND & 8
OPP 22
-10
100.0%
(03:28) BALDWIN, Ke'Marion rush to the left for a loss of 2 yards to the BSU24 (COLEMAN, Jordan). PENALTY JMU Holding on HOLLINGSWORTH, Gabriel enforced 10 yards from the BSU22 to the BSU32 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 19PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 1:330% → 0%
Q4 0:27
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
100.0%
Brian Cooey Jr. punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Yamir Knight at the JMU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 20END OF GAME1 play · -1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
100.0%
[NHSG] Kneel down by MORRIS, Dylan at JMU24 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 4:20
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Yamir Knight for 10 yds for a TD (Noe Ruelas KICK)
+4.8
TD · Q3 13:58
Kadin Semonza pass intercepted Eric O'Neill return for 27 yds for a TD (Noe Ruelas PAT MISSED)
+3.1
TD · Q1 1:51
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Omarion Dollison for 5 yds for a TD (Noe Ruelas KICK)
+2.3