Try the model
USF

South Florida 49 at Southern Miss 24

USM
2024 · Week 3 · Sep 14, 2024 · M. M. Roberts Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · USM
modelUSM aheadUSF aheadconfidence bandkey playUSM scoreUSF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 11:23 · Andrew Stein 42 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+56.0+28.00−28.0−56.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 146Pregame prior−7.6Home team on offense−43.9Score differential−23.9Garbage-time factor−14.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−5.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−4.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 2:55: Byrum Brown pass complete to Payten Singletary for 4 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK) — USF win probability +4.0 pts (now 76%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  2. TD · Q2 4:29: Byrum Brown run for 1 yd for a TD (John Cannon KICK) — USF win probability +11.4 pts (now 89%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 2:31: Ethan Crawford run for 8 yds for a TD (Andrew Stein KICK) — USM win probability +17.1 pts (now 29%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 8:12: Ta'Ron Keith run for 3 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK) — USF win probability +10.4 pts (now 90%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 1:02: Nay'Quan Wright run for 33 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK) — USF win probability +6.0 pts (now 98%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USM made the numbers' call on 7 of 7USF made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 10:16USF 4th & 3 at USM 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.1%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    73.0%−0.1
    49% to make
    Punt
    72.9%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:18USF 4th & 5 at USM 21, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 62.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    62.5%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    62.6%
    74% to make
    Punt
    58.9%−3.7
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:19USM 4th & 3 at USM 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.2%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.4%
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:27USM 4th & 4 at USM 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.1%−0.4
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:55USF 4th & 11 at USF 34, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.7%−1.4
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:53USM 4th & 5 at USM 14, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.3%−1.0
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:35USF 4th & 11 at USF 44, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.7%−0.8
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.4%
    average punt
  8. Q3 8:52USF 4th & 4 at USM 20, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 75.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    75.3%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    75.0%−0.3
    75% to make
    Punt
    67.7%−7.6
    average punt
  9. Q3 5:24USM 4th & 1 at USF 31, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    14.6%−1.9
    54% to make
    Punt
    13.7%−2.8
    average punt
  10. Q4 14:50USM 4th & 6 at USM 29, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.6%−0.3
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.8%
    average punt
  11. Q4 11:23USM 4th & 24 at USF 24, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 2.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.0%−0.8
    6% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    2.7%
    68% to make
    Punt
    1.2%−1.5
    average punt
  12. Q4 7:05USM 4th & 14 at USF 14, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−<0.1
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.3%
    84% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−0.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 4:18USF 4th & 23 at USM 46, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%−0.1
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    99.6%−0.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USM made the numbers' call on 3 of 3USF made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 12:22USM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:05USM Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 2:55USF Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 0:32USF Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 10:52USF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 4:29USF Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 2:31USM Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 8:12USF Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 1:02USF Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 9:25USF Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USMDrive 1TD
7 plays · 87 yds · 2:3317% → 19%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
16.5%
Tate Rodemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:51
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+42
16.5%
Ethan Crawford pass complete to Tate Rodemaker for 42 yds to the USF 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:14
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+8
16.9%
Rodrigues Clark run for 8 yds to the USF 37Similar
Q1 13:44
2ND & 2
OPP 37
-3
17.2%
Rodrigues Clark run for a loss of 3 yards to the USF 40Similar
Q1 13:06
3RD & 5
OPP 40
+15
17.5%
(13:06) RODEMAKER, Tate pass deep to the left incomplete intended for CLARK, Rodrigues broken up by HARRIS, Mac at the USF20, clock 13:02. PENALTY USF Roughing the Passer on WATSON III, Rico enforced 15 yards from the USF40 to the USF25 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 13:02
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
17.6%
Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Kyirin Heath for 6 yds to the USF 19Similar
Q1 12:22
2ND & 4
OPP 19
+19
18.6%
Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Kyirin Heath for 19 yds for a TD (Andrew Stein KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 2DOWNS
5 plays · 33 yds · 1:5982% → 80%
Q1 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+28
18.3%
Byrum Brown run for 28 yds to the USM 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:53
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
18.4%
Kelley Joiner run for 2 yds to the USM 38Similar
Q1 11:38
2ND & 8
OPP 38
-5
18.6%
Byrum Brown sacked by Kristin Booth for a loss of 5 yards to the USM 43Similar
Q1 10:54
3RD & 13
OPP 43
+10
19.3%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Abdur-Rahmaan Yaseen for 10 yds to the USM 33Similar
Q1 10:16
4TH & 3
OPP 33
-2
19.7%
Byrum Brown sacked by Desmyn Baker and Tre Pinkney for a loss of 2 yards to the USM 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 3TD
7 plays · 65 yds · 3:0020% → 26%
Q1 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
20.1%
Rodrigues Clark run for 1 yd to the USM 36Similar
Q1 9:36
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+11
20.5%
Rodrigues Clark run for 11 yds to the USM 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
21.2%
Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Tiaquelin Mims for 4 yds to the USF 49Similar
Q1 8:31
2ND & 6
OPP 49
0
21.7%
Tate Rodemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:27
3RD & 6
OPP 49
+14
21.6%
Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Tiaquelin Mims for 14 yds to the USF 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:48
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-2
22.5%
Kenyon Clay run for a loss of 2 yards to the USF 37Similar
Q1 7:05
2ND & 12
OPP 37
+37
25.7%
Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Kenyon Clay for 37 yds for a TD (Andrew Stein KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 4TD
12 plays · 64 yds · 4:0175% → 76%
Q1 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
24.8%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Michael Brown-Stephens for 15 yds to the USM 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:36
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+11
24.8%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Abdur-Rahmaan Yaseen for 11 yds to the USM 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:14
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
24.9%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 4 yds to the USM 34Similar
Q1 5:59
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+5
24.8%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Joshua Porter for 5 yds to the USM 29Similar
Q1 5:19
3RD & 1
OPP 29
+3
25.8%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 3 yds to the USM 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:19
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-10
25.6%
QB Keeper BROWN, Byrum rush up the middle for a gain of 5 yards to the USM21 (MCNEAL, Ques), clock 05:19. PENALTY USF Holding on PERRY, RJ enforced 10 yards from the USM26 to the USM36 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 5:06
1ST & 20
OPP 36
+6
26.5%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Nay'Quan Wright for 6 yds to the USM 30Similar
Q1 4:47
2ND & 14
OPP 30
+3
26.7%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 3 yds to the USM 27Similar
Q1 4:09
3RD & 11
OPP 27
+6
27.2%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Nay'Quan Wright for 6 yds to the USM 21Similar
Q1 3:18
4TH & 5
OPP 21
+13
28.5%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Sean Atkins for 13 yds to the USM 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
28.1%
Byrum Brown run for 4 yds to the USM 4Similar
Q1 2:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
24.1%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Payten Singletary for 4 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 5FUMBLE
5 plays · 35 yds · 1:5526% → 28%
Q1 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+26
26.2%
Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Larry Simmons for 26 yds to the USM 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
27.5%
Rodrigues Clark run for 3 yds to the USM 48Similar
Q1 1:31
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+1
28.0%
Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Rodrigues Clark for 1 yd to the USM 49Similar
Q1 0:54
3RD & 6
OWN 49
+5
28.2%
Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Davis Dalton for 5 yds Davis Dalton fumbled, recovered by USF Caqavouis Berryhill C. Berryhill return for 16 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 6TD
3 plays · 38 yds · 0:1374% → 77%
Q1 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
26.4%
Sean Atkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:40
2ND & 10
OPP 38
-5
26.5%
South Florida Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the USM 43Similar
Q1 0:32
2ND & 15
OPP 43
+43
22.7%
Kelley Joiner run for 43 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:1125% → 25%
Q1 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
24.6%
Rodrigues Clark run for 2 yds to the USM 27Similar
Q1 0:03
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
24.9%
Rodrigues Clark run for 2 yds to the USM 29Similar
Q2 14:58
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+3
24.6%
Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Tiaquelin Mims for 3 yds to the USM 32Similar
Q2 14:19
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+1
24.7%
Bryce Lofton punt for 41 yds , Sean Atkins returns for 1 yd to the USF 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 8TD
15 plays · 72 yds · 3:2276% → 80%
Q2 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
23.8%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Joshua Porter for no gain to the USF 28Similar
Q2 13:53
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+11
24.3%
Ta'Ron Keith run for 11 yds to the USF 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
23.6%
Byrum Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:30
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+1
23.9%
Ta'Ron Keith run for 1 yd to the USF 40Similar
Q2 12:59
3RD & 9
OWN 40
+15
24.5%
(12:59) BROWN, Byrum pass up the middle incomplete intended for HARDEMAN, Joshua thrown to the USM45, clock 12:54. PENALTY USM Personal Foul on JAMES, Will enforced 15 yards from the USF40 to the USM45 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+15
23.3%
Ta'Ron Keith run for 15 yds to the USM 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
23.2%
Byrum Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:09
2ND & 10
OPP 30
0
23.3%
Byrum Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:05
3RD & 10
OPP 30
+3
23.9%
Byrum Brown run for 3 yds to the USM 27 for a 1ST down Southern Miss Penalty, Personal Foul (Desmyn Baker) to the USM 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
21.5%
Byrum Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:40
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+12
21.6%
Byrum Brown run for 12 yds to the USM 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
21.5%
Ta'Ron Keith run for a loss of 1 yard to the USM 3Similar
Q2 11:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
21.8%
Byrum Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:52
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
19.6%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Josh Hardeman for 3 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:2325% → 25%
Q2 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
24.7%
Tate Rodemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:41
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
24.6%
Chandler Pittman run for 1 yd to the USM 26Similar
Q2 10:10
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+5
24.6%
Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Kenyon Clay for 5 yds to the USM 31Similar
Q2 9:27
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
24.7%
Bryce Lofton punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Sean Atkins at the USF 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · -1 yds · 2:2879% → 76%
Q2 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-3
21.1%
Nay'Quan Wright run for a loss of 3 yards to the USF 32Similar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 13
OWN 32
-10
23.4%
(09:00) BROWN, Byrum scrambles to the left for a gain of 7 yards to the USF39, out of bounds, clock 08:53. PENALTY USF Holding on LOFTON, Mike enforced 10 yards from the USF32 to the USF22 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 8:35
2ND & 23
OWN 22
-1
23.7%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Nay'Quan Wright for a loss of 1 yard to the USF 21Similar
Q2 8:08
3RD & 24
OWN 21
+5
23.4%
(08:08) BROWN, Byrum pass deep to the right intercepted by MYERS, Braxton at the USF49. Myers return for 26 yards to the USF23 (WRIGHT, Nay'Quan), clock 07:57. PENALTY USM Offsides on THOMAS JR., Eric enforced 5 yards from the USF21 to the USF26 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 7:34
3RD & 19
OWN 26
+8
23.5%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Payten Singletary for 8 yds to the USF 34Similar
Q2 6:55
4TH & 11
OWN 34
0
23.9%
Andrew Stokes punt for 48 yds, downed at the USM 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:5326% → 25%
Q2 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
25.5%
Tate Rodemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:41
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+5
25.5%
Rodrigues Clark run for 5 yds to the USM 14Similar
Q2 6:00
3RD & 5
OWN 14
0
25.1%
Tate Rodemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:53
4TH & 5
OWN 14
+39
25.0%
Bryce Lofton punt for 42 yds , Sean Atkins returns for 39 yds to the USM 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 12TD
3 plays · 17 yds · 1:0777% → 89%
Q2 5:36
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+16
23.0%
Byrum Brown run for 16 yds to the USM 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
23.0%
Kelley Joiner run for no gain to the USM 1Similar
Q2 4:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
11.5%
Byrum Brown run for 1 yd for a TD (John Cannon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 13TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:5811% → 29%
Q2 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+56
10.5%
Ethan Crawford pass complete to Tiaquelin Mims for 56 yds to the USF 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:47
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
11.8%
Ethan Crawford run for no gain to the USF 19Similar
Q2 3:21
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+11
11.8%
Ethan Crawford pass complete to Kyirin Heath for 11 yds to the USF 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
28.9%
Ethan Crawford run for 8 yds for a TD (Andrew Stein KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 14PUNT
10 plays · 19 yds · 1:5475% → 70%
Q2 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
24.6%
Joshua Porter run for 5 yds to the USF 30Similar
Q2 2:16
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
24.3%
Byrum Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:06
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+15
24.9%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Sean Atkins for 15 yds to the USF 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-10
26.0%
(01:58) BROWN, Byrum pass deep to the left incomplete intended for HARDEMAN, Joshua thrown to the USM35, clock 01:51. PENALTY USF Holding on BOWMAN, Derek enforced 10 yards from the USF45 to the USF35 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 1:52
1ST & 20
OWN 35
0
28.1%
Byrum Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:46
2ND & 20
OWN 35
+9
28.4%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 9 yds to the USF 44Similar
Q2 0:45
3RD & 11
OWN 44
0
28.2%
Byrum Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:35
4TH & 11
OWN 44
0
30.0%
Andrew Stokes punt for 22 yds, downed at the USM 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 15END OF HALF
5 plays · 18 yds · 0:2226% → 27%
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+18
25.9%
Ethan Crawford pass complete to Tiaquelin Mims for 18 yds to the USF 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:16
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
28.4%
Ethan Crawford pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:12
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
27.9%
Ethan Crawford pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:03
3RD & 10
OPP 48
0
26.7%
Ethan Crawford pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 16TD
17 plays · 79 yds · 6:4079% → 90%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
21.2%
Kelley Joiner run for 5 yds to the USF 26Similar
Q3 14:34
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+4
20.6%
Kelley Joiner run for 4 yds to the USF 30Similar
Q3 14:15
3RD & 1
OWN 30
+1
20.6%
Kelley Joiner run for 1 yd to the USF 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
20.8%
Byrum Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:39
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+3
21.1%
Byrum Brown run for 3 yds to the USF 34Similar
Q3 12:58
3RD & 7
OWN 34
-5
21.5%
South Florida Penalty, False Start (Derek Bowman) to the USF 29Similar
Q3 12:42
3RD & 12
OWN 29
+35
22.4%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Sean Atkins for 35 yds to the USM 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
19.9%
Kelley Joiner run for no gain to the USM 36Similar
Q3 11:47
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+9
18.8%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Payten Singletary for 9 yds to the USM 27Similar
Q3 11:14
3RD & 1
OPP 27
+1
18.7%
Byrum Brown run for 1 yd to the USM 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-6
18.4%
Byrum Brown sacked by Jameer Lewis for a loss of 6 yards to the USM 32Similar
Q3 10:25
2ND & 16
OPP 32
+6
19.0%
Kelley Joiner run for 6 yds to the USM 26Similar
Q3 9:59
3RD & 10
OPP 26
+5
19.3%
Southern Miss Penalty, Offsides (Demeco Roland) to the USM 21Similar
Q3 9:37
3RD & 5
OPP 21
+1
18.9%
Byrum Brown run for 1 yd to the USM 20Similar
Q3 8:52
4TH & 4
OPP 20
+17
20.5%
John Cannon run for 17 yds to the USM 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
10.1%
Ta'Ron Keith run for 3 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 17INT
9 plays · 68 yds · 3:4412% → 13%
Q3 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
12.4%
Rodrigues Clark run for 7 yds to the USM 32Similar
Q3 7:39
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+15
12.8%
Rodrigues Clark run for 15 yds to the USM 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+13
13.7%
Ethan Crawford run for 13 yds to the USF 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:36
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
13.9%
Ethan Crawford pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:28
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+9
13.7%
Ethan Crawford run for 9 yds to the USF 31Similar
Q3 6:02
3RD & 1
OPP 31
0
13.8%
Ethan Crawford run for no gain to the USF 31Similar
Q3 5:24
4TH & 1
OPP 31
+26
13.7%
Ethan Crawford pass complete to Reed Jesiolowski for 26 yds to the USF 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-2
13.6%
Rodrigues Clark run for a loss of 2 yards to the USF 7Similar
Q3 4:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
13.3%
Ethan Crawford pass intercepted Doug Blue-Eli return for no gain to the USF 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 18TD
10 plays · 93 yds · 3:2090% → 98%
Q3 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+15
10.3%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 15 yds to the USF 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+9
10.2%
Byrum Brown run for 9 yds to the USF 31Similar
Q3 3:45
2ND & 1
OWN 31
0
9.9%
Nay'Quan Wright run for no gain to the USF 31Similar
Q3 3:07
3RD & 1
OWN 31
+18
10.1%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 18 yds to the USF 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
8.7%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 6 yds to the USM 45Similar
Q3 2:09
2ND & 4
OPP 45
+10
8.1%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Abdur-Rahmaan Yaseen for 10 yds to the USM 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:38
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
8.2%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 2 yds to the USM 33Similar
Q3 1:02
2ND & 8
OPP 33
+33
2.0%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 33 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:122% → 1%
Q3 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
1.6%
Ethan Crawford run for 2 yds to the USM 27Similar
Q3 0:30
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
1.5%
Kenyon Clay run for 2 yds to the USM 29Similar
Q4 14:58
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
1.4%
Ethan Crawford pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:50
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
1.3%
Bryce Lofton punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Sean Atkins at the USF 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 20FUMBLE
2 plays · 38 yds · 0:2398% → 98%
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+14
2.2%
Byrum Brown run for 14 yds to the USF 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:24
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+24
2.0%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Sean Atkins for 24 yds fumbled, forced by Chris Jones, recovered by USM Ja'Len Sims J. Sims return for 10 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 21MISSED FG
9 plays · 28 yds · 2:451% → 1%
Q4 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
1.3%
Ethan Crawford pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:04
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+16
1.3%
Rodrigues Clark run for 16 yds to the USF 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+30
1.3%
Ethan Crawford pass complete to Larry Simmons for 30 yds to the USF 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
1.3%
Rodrigues Clark run for no gain to the USF 6Similar
Q4 13:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-3
1.2%
Ethan Crawford run for a loss of 3 yards to the USF 9Similar
Q4 12:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
-10
1.2%
Ethan Crawford sacked by Kajuan Banks for a loss of 10 yards to the USF 19Similar
Q4 11:38
4TH & GOAL
OPP 19
-5
1.1%
Southern Miss Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the USF 24Similar
Q4 11:23
4TH & GOAL
OPP 24
+42
1.0%
Andrew Stein 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 22TD
5 plays · 76 yds · 1:5599% → 100%
Q4 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
1.5%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Sean Atkins for no gain to the USF 24Similar
Q4 10:49
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+6
1.5%
Kelley Joiner run for 6 yds to the USF 30Similar
Q4 10:22
3RD & 4
OWN 30
+20
1.4%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Michael Brown-Stephens for 20 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:38
1ST & 10
50
0
1.1%
Byrum Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:25
2ND & 10
50
+50
0.2%
Kelley Joiner run for 50 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 23FG
6 plays · 61 yds · 2:190% → 0%
Q4 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+36
0.1%
John White pass complete to Justyn Reid for 36 yds to the USF 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:43
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+33
0.1%
John White pass complete to Tiaquelin Mims for 33 yds to the USF 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
0.1%
John White pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-8
0.1%
John White sacked by D.J. Harris and Jaelen Stokes for a loss of 8 yards to the USF 14Similar
Q4 7:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 14
0
0.1%
John White pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:05
4TH & GOAL
OPP 14
+31
0.1%
Connor Gibbs 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 24PUNT
8 plays · -2 yds · 2:45100% → 100%
Q4 7:03
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
0.2%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 6 yds to the USM 38Similar
Q4 6:39
2ND & 4
OPP 38
+5
0.2%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 5 yds to the USM 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-5
0.2%
South Florida Penalty, False Start (Doug Blue-Eli) to the USM 38Similar
Q4 6:15
1ST & 15
OPP 38
-4
0.2%
Nay'Quan Wright run for a loss of 4 yards to the USM 42Similar
Q4 5:46
2ND & 19
OPP 42
+8
0.2%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 8 yds to the USM 34Similar
Q4 5:06
3RD & 11
OPP 34
-7
0.2%
Byrum Brown sacked by Ryan Johnson for a loss of 7 yards to the USM 41Similar
Q4 4:18
4TH & 18
OPP 41
-5
0.2%
South Florida Penalty, Delay Of Game (Doug Blue-Eli) to the USM 46Similar
Q4 4:18
4TH & 23
OPP 46
0
0.2%
Andrew Stokes punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Tiaquelin Mims at the USM 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 25FUMBLE
4 plays · 38 yds · 1:480% → 0%
Q4 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+13
0.1%
Rodrigues Clark run for 13 yds to the USM 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
0.1%
Rodrigues Clark run for 7 yds to the USM 31Similar
Q4 3:00
2ND & 3
OWN 31
+25
0.1%
John White pass complete to Larry Simmons for 25 yds to the USF 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:22
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-7
0.0%
John White sacked for a loss of 7 yards to the USM 49 John White fumbled, recovered by USF Jarvis Lee , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 26END OF GAME
4 plays · 24 yds · 1:32100% → 100%
Q4 2:00
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+12
0.1%
Ta'Ron Keith run for 12 yds to the USM 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:16
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+8
0.1%
Ta'Ron Keith run for 8 yds to the USM 29Similar
Q4 0:28
2ND & 2
OPP 29
+4
0.1%
Ta'Ron Keith run for 4 yds to the USM 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 2:31
Ethan Crawford run for 8 yds for a TD (Andrew Stein KICK)
+17.1
TD · Q2 4:29
Byrum Brown run for 1 yd for a TD (John Cannon KICK)
-11.4
TD · Q3 8:12
Ta'Ron Keith run for 3 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK)
-10.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com