2024 · Week 3 · Sep 14, 2024 · Lincoln Financial Field
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Win probability · TEM
modelTEM aheadCCU aheadconfidence bandkey playTEM scoreCCU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 6:41 · Dante Atton punt for 49 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 3:30: Xamarion Gordon 29 Yd Interception Return (Kade Hensley Kick) — CCU win probability +2.2 pts (now 87%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
- TD · Q2 8:25: Cameron Wright 8 Yd pass from Ethan Vasko (Kade Hensley Kick) — CCU win probability +6.1 pts (now 91%) (top driver: CCU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 4:37: Evan Simon pass complete to John Adams for 15 yds for a TD (Maddux Trujillo KICK) — TEM win probability +4.0 pts (now 17%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
- TD · Q3 10:26: Evan Simon pass complete to Dante Wright for 2 yds for a TD (Maddux Trujillo KICK) — TEM win probability +11.2 pts (now 28%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
- TD · Q3 3:48: Christian Washington run for 5 yds for a TD (Kade Hensley KICK) — CCU win probability +8.3 pts (now 87%) (top driver: CCU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
TEM made the numbers' call on 5 of 8CCU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
- Q1 9:00TEM 4th & 8 at CCU 36, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 17.3% before the snapGo for it17.3%34% to convertField goalTheir call17.2%−<0.142% to makePunt17.2%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 1:37TEM 4th & 8 at CCU 36, down 14Close callKicked a field goal · 15.5% before the snapGo for it15.5%34% to convertField goalTheir call15.4%−0.142% to makePunt15.2%−0.2average punt
- Q2 9:51CCU 4th & 10 at TEM 44, up 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.0% before the snapGo for it82.5%−0.330% to convertField goal82.2%−0.627% to makePuntTheir call82.8%average punt
- Q2 1:55CCU 4th & 1 at CCU 46, up 11Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsPunted · 83.0% before the snapGo for it83.4%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call82.4%−1.0average punt
- Q2 0:57TEM 4th & 7 at TEM 23, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.9% before the snapGo for it15.0%−0.835% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call15.8%average punt
- Q3 14:10CCU 4th & 10 at CCU 25, up 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.8% before the snapGo for it81.4%−1.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call82.5%average punt
- Q3 10:26TEM 4th & 2 at CCU 2, down 11Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call17.2%48% to convertField goal15.9%−1.294% to makePunt10.8%−6.3average punt
- Q4 12:58TEM 4th & 10 at CCU 19, down 11Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 14.4% before the snapGo for it13.8%−0.727% to convertField goalTheir call14.5%77% to makePunt10.2%−4.3average punt
- Q4 10:59CCU 4th & 14 at CCU 21, up 8Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.1% before the snapGo for it80.1%−4.417% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call84.5%average punt
- Q4 6:41TEM 4th & 17 at TEM 49, down 8Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.3% before the snapGo for it10.5%−1.314% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call11.8%average punt
- Q4 2:44CCU 4th & 2 at TEM 40, up 8Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call92.9%57% to convertField goal91.4%−1.534% to makePunt91.3%−1.6average punt
- Q4 0:51TEM 4th & 6 at TEM 43, down 8Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call6.2%40% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt5.1%−1.1average punt
- Q4 0:23TEM 4th & 14 at CCU 40, down 8Close callWent for it · 6.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call6.3%−0.519% to convertField goal6.9%34% to makePunt5.0%−1.9average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TEM made the numbers' call on 2 of 2CCU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
- Q1 4:14CCU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call82.0%97% to makeGo for two82.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 3:30CCU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call84.6%97% to makeGo for two84.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:25CCU Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call87.0%97% to makeGo for two87.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:37TEM Touchdown, down 12 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call18.0%97% to makeGo for two17.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 10:26TEM Touchdown, down 5 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call25.3%97% to makeGo for two25.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 3:48CCU Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call84.4%97% to makeGo for two84.2%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartTEMDrive 1MISSED FG13 plays · 39 yds · 5:4412% → 15%
CCUDrive 2TD11 plays · 63 yds · 4:3585% → 86%
Q1 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
15.3%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Senika McKie for 7 yds to the TEM 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 3INT TD3 plays · 4 yds · 0:2315% → 13%
TEMDrive 4FG6 plays · 39 yds · 1:4613% → 15%
Q1 2:06
3RD & 10
OPP 38
+2
13.8%
Evan Simon pass complete to Antonio Jones for 2 yds to the CCU 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 5PUNT15 plays · 31 yds · 6:3685% → 85%
Q2 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-5
14.3%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Tray Taylor for a loss of 5 yards to the CCU 41Similar
Q2 12:10
2ND & 15
OWN 41
+5
14.7%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Jameson Tucker for 5 yds to the CCU 46Similar
Q2 11:20
3RD & 10
OWN 46
+10
14.7%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Cane Berrong for 10 yds to the TEM 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:57
4TH & 5
OPP 39
-5
15.2%
PENALTY Coas Delay Of Game 5 yards from Temple39 to Temple44. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 6FUMBLE2 plays · 10 yds · 0:2815% → 15%
CCUDrive 7TD2 plays · 11 yds · 0:3185% → 91%
TEMDrive 8TD9 plays · 75 yds · 3:3711% → 17%
Q2 7:15
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+14
11.6%
Evan Simon pass complete to Antwain Littleton for 14 yds to the TEM 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+18
11.9%
Evan Simon pass complete to Dante Wright for 18 yds to the CCU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:33
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+17
12.0%
Evan Simon pass complete to Dante Wright for 17 yds to the CCU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:09
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+4
12.5%
Evan Simon pass complete to Antonio Jones for 4 yds to the CCU 15Similar
Q2 4:37
3RD & 6
OPP 15
+15
16.5%
Evan Simon pass complete to John Adams for 15 yds for a TD (Maddux Trujillo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 9PUNT10 plays · 31 yds · 2:2684% → 84%
Q2 3:46
2ND & 8
OWN 17
+8
15.9%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Kyre Duplessis for 8 yds to the CCU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
15.8%
(03:28) No Huddle-Shotgun Vasko,Ethan pass complete short left to Karr,Kendall caught at Coas29, for 8 yards to the Coas33 (Deravil,Elijah) PENALTY Coas Holding (Del Grande,Nick) 10 yards from Coas25 to Coas15. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:33
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+5
15.5%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Bryson Graves for 5 yds to the CCU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:55
4TH & 1
OWN 46
0
15.7%
Emile Sebafundi punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Dante Wright at the TEM 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 10PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 0:4216% → 15%
Q2 0:57
4TH & 7
OWN 23
+9
15.4%
Dante Atton punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the CCU 44 , Bryson Graves returns for 9 yds to the CCU 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 11Uncategorized5 plays · 3 yds · 0:3986% → 86%
CCUDrive 12PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:4484% → 83%
Q3 14:38
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
16.1%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Tray Taylor for no gain to the CCU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 13TD7 plays · 53 yds · 3:1917% → 28%
Q3 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+24
17.3%
Evan Simon pass complete to Dante Wright for 24 yds to the CCU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:51
2ND & 9
OPP 28
+20
18.5%
Evan Simon pass complete to Antwain Littleton for 20 yds to the CCU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:26
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
28.2%
Evan Simon pass complete to Dante Wright for 2 yds for a TD (Maddux Trujillo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 14TD14 plays · 75 yds · 6:2274% → 87%
TEMDrive 15FG13 plays · 54 yds · 5:3015% → 18%
Q3 2:01
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
16.6%
(02:01) Simon,Evan pass complete short middle to Della Pesca,James caught at Temple49, for 5 yards to the Coas48 (Gordon,Xamarion; Cash,Joah) PENALTY Coas Offside (Brown,Tray) 5 yards from Temple47 to Coas48. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:17
1ST & 5
OPP 48
+15
17.4%
Evan Simon pass complete to John Adams for 15 yds to the CCU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:51
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+9
18.3%
Evan Simon pass complete to Antonio Jones for 9 yds to the CCU 24Similar
Q4 14:12
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-7
18.0%
Evan Simon sacked by Tray Brown for a loss of 7 yards to the CCU 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 16PUNT5 plays · -4 yds · 1:4286% → 84%
Q4 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
14.5%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Jameson Tucker for 3 yds to the CCU 28Similar
Q4 11:34
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-11
14.6%
Ethan Vasko sacked by D.J. Woodbury Sr. for a loss of 11 yards to the CCU 21Similar
Q4 10:59
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
16.4%
Mack West punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Dante Wright at the TEM 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 17PUNT9 plays · 6 yds · 4:0319% → 13%
Q4 7:21
4TH & 7
OPP 41
-10
16.6%
(07:25) Shotgun Simon,Evan pass complete short right to Jones,Antonio caught at Coas32, for 9 yards to the Coas32, out of bounds at Coas32 PENALTY Temple Holding (Wilson Jr.,EJ) 10 yards from Coas41 to Temple49. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 18DOWNS9 plays · 59 yds · 3:3190% → 93%
Q4 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+15
10.3%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Senika McKie for 15 yds to the CCU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:54
2ND & 5
OWN 22
+8
9.1%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Christian Washington for 8 yds to the CCU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+22
8.5%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Jameson Tucker for 22 yds to the TEM 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 19DOWNS11 plays · 21 yds · 2:068% → 4%
Q4 0:51
4TH & 1
OWN 48
-5
6.5%
PENALTY Temple False Start (Siani,Melvin) 5 yards from Temple48 to Temple43. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:51
4TH & 6
OWN 43
+21
5.5%
Evan Simon pass complete to Dante Wright for 21 yds to the CCU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:51
2ND & 10
OPP 36
-6
7.4%
Evan Simon sacked by Deamontae Diggs for a loss of 6 yards to the CCU 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 20END OF GAME1 play · -2 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 10:26
Evan Simon pass complete to Dante Wright for 2 yds for a TD (Maddux Trujillo KICK)
+11.2
TD · Q3 3:48
Christian Washington run for 5 yds for a TD (Kade Hensley KICK)
-8.3
TD · Q2 8:25
Cameron Wright 8 Yd pass from Ethan Vasko (Kade Hensley Kick)
-6.1