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APP

App State 21 at East Carolina 19

ECU
2024 · Week 3 · Sep 14, 2024 · Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium
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Win probability · ECU
modelECU aheadAPP aheadconfidence bandkey playECU scoreAPP score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDFGFGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 7:18 · Andrew Conrad 36 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+31.5+15.80−15.8−31.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 107Home team on offense+4.2Pregame prior−1.5Score differential+0.4Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 4:55: Joey Aguilar pass intercepted Shavon Revel Jr. return for 50 yds for a TD (Andrew Conrad PAT MISSED) — ECU win probability +3.7 pts (now 57%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 14:17: Joey Aguilar pass complete to Eli Wilson for 6 yds for a TD (Joey Aguilar pass to Eli Wilson for Two-Point Conversion) — APP win probability +6.1 pts (now 46%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 0:09: Michael Hughes 35 yd FG GOOD — APP win probability +4.7 pts (now 47%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. TD · Q3 0:41: Joey Aguilar pass complete to Makai Jackson for 36 yds for a TD (Michael Hughes KICK) — APP win probability +23.4 pts (now 70%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 12:39: Andrew Conrad 43 yd FG GOOD — ECU win probability +10.9 pts (now 49%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ECU made the numbers' call on 5 of 8APP made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 11:55APP 4th & 11 at ECU 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.7%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    49.7%−0.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    49.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:33ECU 4th & 7 at APP 30, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 53.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.6%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.6%
    56% to make
    Punt
    53.3%−0.3
    average punt
  3. Q2 12:56ECU 4th & 3 at ECU 42, up 8
    Close callPunted · 58.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.5%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q2 7:00APP 4th & 10 at ECU 10, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 36.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.2%−0.9
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.2%
    88% to make
    Punt
    29.7%−6.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 4:36ECU 4th & 2 at ECU 46, up 5
    Close callPunted · 59.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.1%−0.9
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:18APP 4th & 1 at APP 29, down 5
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsPunted · 40.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.4%−1.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:04ECU 4th & 13 at ECU 24, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.9%−2.8
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:09APP 4th & 10 at ECU 17, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 41.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.2%−1.9
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.1%
    80% to make
    Punt
    35.7%−5.4
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:01APP 4th & 9 at APP 48, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.6%−1.0
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:18ECU 4th & 8 at APP 19, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.8%−1.5
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.3%
    77% to make
    Punt
    50.3%−10.0
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:14APP 4th & 7 at ECU 47, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.9%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.2%
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:08ECU 4th & 15 at ECU 15, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.0%−5.6
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.5%
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:39ECU 4th & 8 at APP 25, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 38.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.9%−1.2
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.1%
    66% to make
    Punt
    24.3%−14.7
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:46APP 4th & 9 at APP 39, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.7%−3.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.3%
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:24ECU 4th & 3 at ECU 29, down 2
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.6 ptsPunted · 45.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.7%−2.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ECU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2APP made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 14:29ECU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:55ECU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    58.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:17APP Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    42.7%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    42.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 0:41APP Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ECUDrive 1TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:3046% → 46%
Q1 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
45.9%
Jake Garcia pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:53
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+10
45.9%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Chase Sowell for 10 yds to the ECU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:29
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+65
46.2%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Winston Wright Jr. for 65 yds for a TD (Andrew Conrad KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 30 yds · 2:3354% → 52%
Q1 14:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
46.2%
Anderson Castle run for a loss of 1 yard to the APP 24Similar
Q1 13:52
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
46.6%
Joey Aguilar sacked for 0 yards to the APP 24 Joey Aguilar fumbled, recovered by APP , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 13:24
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+32
46.9%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Christan Horn for 32 yds to the ECU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:06
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-1
46.8%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Christan Horn for a loss of 1 yard to the ECU 45Similar
Q1 12:27
2ND & 11
OPP 45
0
47.2%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Anderson Castle for no gain to the ECU 45Similar
Q1 12:00
3RD & 11
OPP 45
0
47.6%
Joey Aguilar pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:55
4TH & 11
OPP 45
0
47.8%
Conner Maynard punt for 45 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 3FG
17 plays · 50 yds · 5:1448% → 52%
Q1 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
47.9%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Winston Wright Jr. for no gain to the ECU 20Similar
Q1 11:30
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
48.1%
Jake Garcia pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:25
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+10
48.0%
(11:25) GARCIA, Jake pass deep to the right incomplete intended for SOWELL, Chase thrown to the ECU40, clock 11:22. PENALTY ASU Pass Interference on JOHNSON, Ethan enforced at the spot of the foul for 10 yards to the ECU30 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
48.2%
Rahjai Harris run for 4 yds to the ECU 34Similar
Q1 10:56
2ND & 6
OWN 34
-5
48.6%
East Carolina Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the ECU 29Similar
Q1 10:50
2ND & 11
OWN 29
+8
48.5%
Rahjai Harris run for 8 yds to the ECU 37Similar
Q1 10:10
3RD & 3
OWN 37
+3
49.1%
Rahjai Harris run for 3 yds to the ECU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
49.6%
Jake Garcia run for no gain to the ECU 40Similar
Q1 9:28
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+9
49.7%
Rahjai Harris run for 9 yds to the ECU 49Similar
Q1 9:12
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+3
50.0%
Rahjai Harris run for 3 yds to the APP 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:51
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+15
50.3%
(08:51) GARCIA, Jake sacked for a loss of 7 yards at the ECU45 (JOHNSON, Nate), clock 08:44. PENALTY ASU Targeting on JOHNSON, Nate enforced 15 yards from the ASU48 to the ASU33 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 8:33
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
51.0%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for no gain to the APP 33Similar
Q1 8:16
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+3
51.2%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 3 yds to the APP 30Similar
Q1 7:40
3RD & 7
OPP 30
-5
51.3%
(07:40) GARCIA, Jake pass short to the right complete for 11 yards to PATTERSON, Jhari caught at the ASU27 and advanced to the ASU19 (HARRINGTON, Brendan), clock 07:33. PENALTY Before the snap, ECU Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the ASU30 to the ASU35. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 7:15
3RD & 12
OPP 35
+5
51.4%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Casey Kelly for 5 yds to the APP 30Similar
Q1 6:33
4TH & 7
OPP 30
+48
51.9%
Andrew Conrad 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 4INT TD
4 plays · 16 yds · 1:3348% → 43%
Q1 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
52.3%
App State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the APP 20Similar
Q1 6:27
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+3
52.4%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Anderson Castle for 3 yds to the APP 23Similar
Q1 5:43
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+18
53.0%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Makai Jackson for 18 yds to the APP 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-50
56.7%
Joey Aguilar pass intercepted Shavon Revel Jr. return for 50 yds for a TD (Andrew Conrad PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 5TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:3743% → 46%
Q1 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
56.9%
Anderson Castle run for 6 yds to the APP 31Similar
Q1 4:25
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+10
57.1%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Dalton Stroman for 10 yds to the APP 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
57.6%
Joey Aguilar pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:46
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+11
57.9%
Ahmani Marshall run for 11 yds to the ECU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:24
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
58.3%
Joey Aguilar run for no gain to the ECU 48Similar
Q1 2:49
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+3
59.3%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Ahmani Marshall for 3 yds to the ECU 45Similar
Q1 2:02
3RD & 7
OPP 45
+17
59.1%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Kaedin Robinson for 17 yds to the ECU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:24
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
58.8%
Ahmani Marshall run for no gain to the ECU 28Similar
Q1 0:52
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+10
59.5%
Joey Aguilar run for 10 yds to the ECU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:31
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
59.6%
Ahmani Marshall run for no gain to the ECU 18Similar
Q2 14:59
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+12
60.4%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Kaedin Robinson for 12 yds to the ECU 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
60.4%
Joey Aguilar pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
54.3%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Eli Wilson for 6 yds for a TD (Joey Aguilar pass to Eli Wilson for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:1457% → 57%
Q2 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
56.9%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Chase Sowell for 3 yds to the ECU 38Similar
Q2 13:39
2ND & 7
OWN 38
0
58.2%
Jake Garcia pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:34
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+4
57.3%
Jake Garcia run for 4 yds to the ECU 42Similar
Q2 12:56
4TH & 3
OWN 42
0
57.3%
Luke Larsen punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Kaedin Robinson at the APP 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 7FG
10 plays · 71 yds · 5:5042% → 43%
Q2 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-3
57.9%
Ahmani Marshall run for a loss of 3 yards to the APP 16Similar
Q2 12:14
2ND & 13
OWN 16
+49
58.5%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Christan Horn for 49 yds to the ECU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:37
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
55.9%
Anderson Castle run for 5 yds to the ECU 30Similar
Q2 11:01
2ND & 5
OPP 30
+14
56.0%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Christan Horn for 14 yds to the ECU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:28
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+9
56.3%
Anderson Castle run for 9 yds to the ECU 7Similar
Q2 9:53
2ND & 1
OPP 7
+2
56.9%
Joey Aguilar run for 2 yds to the ECU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-5
57.2%
Anderson Castle run for a loss of 5 yards to the ECU 10Similar
Q2 8:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
-2
57.6%
Anderson Castle run for a loss of 2 yards to the ECU 12Similar
Q2 7:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 12
+2
60.1%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Makai Jackson for 2 yds to the ECU 10Similar
Q2 7:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+28
57.4%
Michael Hughes 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 8PUNT
9 plays · 32 yds · 2:1658% → 60%
Q2 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+6
58.2%
Rahjai Harris run for 6 yds to the ECU 20Similar
Q2 6:35
2ND & 4
OWN 20
+6
58.7%
Jake Garcia run for 6 yds to the ECU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
58.9%
Jake Garcia pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:12
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+12
58.5%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Anthony Smith for 12 yds to the ECU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
59.8%
Jake Garcia pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:39
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+8
59.6%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Anthony Smith for 8 yds to the ECU 46Similar
Q2 5:18
3RD & 2
OWN 46
0
60.2%
Rahjai Harris run for no gain to the ECU 46Similar
Q2 4:36
4TH & 2
OWN 46
0
59.7%
Luke Larsen punt for 34 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:1041% → 39%
Q2 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
59.2%
Joey Aguilar pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:23
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+9
59.6%
Kanye Roberts run for 9 yds to the APP 29Similar
Q2 3:46
3RD & 1
OWN 29
0
59.4%
Kanye Roberts run for no gain to the APP 29Similar
Q2 3:18
4TH & 1
OWN 29
+9
60.7%
Conner Maynard punt for 38 yds , Brock Spalding returns for 9 yds to the ECU 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 10FUMBLE
2 plays · 26 yds · 0:2363% → 63%
Q2 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
62.5%
Javious Bond run for 9 yds to the APP 49Similar
Q2 2:46
2ND & 1
OPP 49
+17
62.8%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Chase Sowell for 17 yds Chase Sowell fumbled, recovered by APP Jordan Favors J. Favors return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 11INT
5 plays · 15 yds · 0:4941% → 41%
Q2 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
59.1%
Joey Aguilar run for 3 yds to the APP 35Similar
Q2 2:06
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+8
59.9%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Kanen Hamlett for 8 yds to the APP 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
59.1%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Anderson Castle for 4 yds to the APP 47Similar
Q2 1:53
2ND & 6
OWN 47
0
57.9%
Joey Aguilar pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:48
3RD & 6
OWN 47
0
58.7%
Joey Aguilar pass intercepted Gavin Gibson return for no gain to the ECU 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:3861% → 59%
Q2 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-8
61.1%
Jake Garcia sacked by Joshua Donald for a loss of 8 yards to the ECU 19Similar
Q2 1:08
2ND & 18
OWN 19
+5
60.9%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Casey Kelly for 5 yds to the ECU 24Similar
Q2 1:07
3RD & 13
OWN 24
0
59.9%
Jake Garcia pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:04
4TH & 13
OWN 24
0
58.9%
Luke Larsen punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Kaedin Robinson at the APP 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 13FG
7 plays · 55 yds · 0:4739% → 47%
Q2 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+22
61.1%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Eli Wilson for 22 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:41
1ST & 10
50
+11
58.2%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Dalton Stroman for 11 yds to the ECU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+22
57.6%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Kaedin Robinson for 22 yds to the ECU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
55.5%
Joey Aguilar pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:22
2ND & 10
OPP 17
0
55.7%
Joey Aguilar pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:18
3RD & 10
OPP 17
0
57.9%
Joey Aguilar pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:09
4TH & 10
OPP 17
+35
53.2%
Michael Hughes 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · 1 yds · 0:0056% → 56%
Q2 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+1
55.5%
Rahjai Harris run for 1 yd to the ECU 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 31 yds · 3:5145% → 43%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+8
55.2%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Kaedin Robinson for 8 yds to the APP 25Similar
Q3 14:19
2ND & 2
OWN 25
+9
54.5%
Anderson Castle run for 9 yds to the APP 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-1
54.8%
Anderson Castle run for a loss of 1 yard to the APP 33Similar
Q3 12:57
2ND & 11
OWN 33
+14
55.8%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Christan Horn for 14 yds to the APP 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-2
52.7%
Anderson Castle run for a loss of 2 yards to the APP 45Similar
Q3 11:49
2ND & 12
OWN 45
+3
54.6%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to David Larkins for 3 yds to the APP 48Similar
Q3 11:04
3RD & 9
OWN 48
0
54.7%
Joey Aguilar pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:01
4TH & 9
OWN 48
0
57.0%
Conner Maynard punt for 44 yds , Brock Spalding returns for no gain to the ECU 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 16MISSED FG
9 plays · 59 yds · 3:3457% → 59%
Q3 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+11
56.9%
Rahjai Harris run for 11 yds to the ECU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
57.5%
Rahjai Harris run for 5 yds to the ECU 38Similar
Q3 10:19
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+2
59.7%
Rahjai Harris run for 2 yds to the ECU 40Similar
Q3 9:46
3RD & 3
OWN 40
+23
58.8%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Casey Kelly for 23 yds to the APP 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:26
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+16
61.4%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Anthony Smith for 16 yds to the APP 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:05
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+6
62.4%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Casey Kelly for 6 yds to the APP 15Similar
Q3 8:46
2ND & 4
OPP 15
-2
62.5%
Jake Garcia sacked for a loss of 2 yards to the APP 17 Jake Garcia fumbled, recovered by ECU Jake Garcia , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 8:00
3RD & 6
OPP 17
-2
61.4%
Jake Garcia sacked by Montez Kelley for a loss of 2 yards to the APP 19Similar
Q3 7:18
4TH & 8
OPP 19
+36
59.2%
Andrew Conrad 36 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 17PUNT
9 plays · 33 yds · 4:0143% → 43%
Q3 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
57.0%
Kanye Roberts run for 2 yds to the APP 22Similar
Q3 6:39
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+15
57.4%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Makai Jackson for 15 yds to the APP 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
56.1%
Kanye Roberts run for 4 yds to the APP 41Similar
Q3 5:17
2ND & 6
OWN 41
0
53.8%
Kanye Roberts run for no gain to the APP 41Similar
Q3 4:40
3RD & 6
OWN 41
+9
54.8%
Joey Aguilar run for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:05
1ST & 10
50
+3
52.8%
Joey Aguilar run for 3 yds to the ECU 47Similar
Q3 3:24
2ND & 7
OPP 47
0
53.0%
Joey Aguilar pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:20
3RD & 7
OPP 47
0
53.6%
Joey Aguilar pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:14
4TH & 7
OPP 47
0
57.2%
Conner Maynard punt for 47 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 0:5959% → 56%
Q3 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
59.1%
Jake Garcia pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:03
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
58.8%
Jake Garcia pass complete to London Montgomery for no gain to the ECU 20Similar
Q3 2:50
3RD & 10
OWN 20
-5
57.0%
Jake Garcia sacked by Cahari Haynes for a loss of 5 yards to the ECU 15Similar
Q3 2:08
4TH & 15
OWN 15
0
56.2%
Luke Larsen punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Kaedin Robinson at the APP 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 19TD
4 plays · 56 yds · 1:2146% → 70%
Q3 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
54.3%
Joey Aguilar pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:58
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+19
55.3%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Kaedin Robinson for 19 yds to the ECU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:34
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
53.2%
Joey Aguilar run for 1 yd to the ECU 36Similar
Q3 0:41
2ND & 9
OPP 36
+36
29.8%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Makai Jackson for 36 yds for a TD (Michael Hughes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 20FG
13 plays · 50 yds · 3:0938% → 49%
Q3 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
37.7%
Rahjai Harris run for 5 yds to the ECU 30Similar
Q3 0:29
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
38.4%
Rahjai Harris run for 4 yds to the ECU 34Similar
Q3 0:10
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+9
37.8%
Rahjai Harris run for 9 yds to the ECU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
39.9%
Rahjai Harris run for 8 yds to the APP 49Similar
Q4 14:41
2ND & 2
OPP 49
0
41.6%
Jake Garcia pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:39
3RD & 2
OPP 49
+3
40.6%
Rahjai Harris run for 3 yds to the APP 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:19
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
41.6%
Rahjai Harris run for 2 yds to the APP 44Similar
Q4 13:58
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+17
41.5%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Anthony Smith for 17 yds to the APP 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:41
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
43.6%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Anthony Smith for 3 yds to the APP 24Similar
Q4 13:24
2ND & 7
OPP 24
+4
43.6%
Rahjai Harris run for 4 yds to the APP 20Similar
Q4 12:48
3RD & 3
OPP 20
0
41.0%
Jake Garcia pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:44
4TH & 3
OPP 20
-5
38.2%
East Carolina Penalty, False Start (Hampton Ergle) to the APP 25Similar
Q4 12:39
4TH & 8
OPP 25
+43
49.0%
Andrew Conrad 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 21PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 3:5259% → 57%
Q4 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
41.1%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Anderson Castle for a loss of 2 yards to the APP 23Similar
Q4 11:58
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+1
41.5%
Anderson Castle run for 1 yd to the APP 24Similar
Q4 11:17
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+14
43.1%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Eli Wilson for 14 yds to the APP 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-15
38.2%
(10:31) CASTLE, Anderson rush up the middle for a gain of 18 yards to the ECU44 (KING, Devon;ROGERS, Omar), clock 10:26. PENALTY ASU Personal Foul on LARKINS, David enforced 15 yards from the ASU38 to the ASU23 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 10:04
1ST & 25
OWN 23
+8
41.2%
Anderson Castle run for 8 yds to the APP 31Similar
Q4 9:28
2ND & 17
OWN 31
0
41.3%
Joey Aguilar pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:23
3RD & 17
OWN 31
+8
43.2%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Anderson Castle for 8 yds to the APP 39Similar
Q4 8:46
4TH & 9
OWN 39
+11
43.1%
Conner Maynard punt for 50 yds , Brock Spalding returns for 11 yds to the ECU 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:1148% → 45%
Q4 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+7
48.3%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Winston Wright Jr. for 7 yds to the ECU 29Similar
Q4 8:15
2ND & 3
OWN 29
0
51.7%
Javious Bond run for no gain to the ECU 29Similar
Q4 7:53
3RD & 3
OWN 29
0
47.3%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Rahjai Harris for no gain to the ECU 29Similar
Q4 7:24
4TH & 3
OWN 29
0
44.9%
Luke Larsen punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Kaedin Robinson at the APP 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 23FUMBLE
4 plays · 55 yds · 1:5862% → 70%
Q4 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
38.2%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Makai Jackson for 4 yds to the APP 36Similar
Q4 6:44
2ND & 6
OWN 36
0
36.9%
Anderson Castle run for no gain to the APP 36Similar
Q4 6:02
3RD & 6
OWN 36
+31
37.8%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Kaedin Robinson for 31 yds to the ECU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+20
30.1%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Kaedin Robinson for 20 yds Kaedin Robinson fumbled, recovered by ECU Ryheem Craig R. Craig return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 24INT
3 plays · 35 yds · 0:4945% → 48%
Q4 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+6
45.0%
Javious Bond run for 6 yds to the ECU 19Similar
Q4 4:46
2ND & 4
OWN 19
+29
44.3%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Yannick Smith for 29 yds to the ECU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-21
48.2%
Jake Garcia pass intercepted Seth Robertson return for 21 yds to the ECU 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 25END OF GAME
12 plays · 25 yds · 3:4073% → 93%
Q4 4:11
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
26.7%
Anderson Castle run for 4 yds to the ECU 44Similar
Q4 3:28
2ND & 6
OPP 44
0
24.6%
Anderson Castle run for no gain to the ECU 44Similar
Q4 2:43
3RD & 6
OPP 44
+11
24.7%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Makai Jackson for 11 yds to the ECU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:29
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-1
19.2%
Anderson Castle run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECU 34Similar
Q4 2:23
2ND & 11
OPP 34
+11
19.4%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Eli Wilson for 11 yds to the ECU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
14.2%
Anderson Castle run for no gain to the ECU 23Similar
Q4 1:56
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+10
14.1%
Anderson Castle run for 10 yds to the ECU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:12
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-6
11.3%
(01:12) Kneel down by AGUILAR, Joey at ECU19 (team loss of 6), clock 01:05.Similar
Q4 0:31
2ND & 16
OPP 19
-4
6.6%
(00:31) Kneel down by AGUILAR, Joey at ECU23 (team loss of 4), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 0:41
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Makai Jackson for 36 yds for a TD (Michael Hughes KICK)
-23.4
FG · Q4 12:39
Andrew Conrad 43 yd FG GOOD
+10.9
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-6.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com