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SELA

SE Louisiana 10 at Southern Miss 35

USM
2024 · Week 2 · Sep 7, 2024 · M. M. Roberts Stadium
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Win probability · USM
modelUSM aheadSELA aheadconfidence bandkey playUSM scoreSELA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 9:00 · Andrew Stein 44 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialGarbage-time factorDefense timeouts
+40.0+20.00−20.0−40.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 97Pregame prior+19.1Home team on offense+5.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.7Score differential+0.6Garbage-time factor+2.6Defense timeouts+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:11: Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Davis Dalton for 5 yds for a TD (Andrew Stein KICK) — USM win probability +5.2 pts (now 91%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:14: Antonio Martin Jr. run for 10 yds for a TD (Riley Callaghan KICK) — SELA win probability +7.3 pts (now 17%) (top driver: Defense has -6 timeouts left).
  3. TD · Q3 5:22: Rodrigues Clark run for 1 yd for a TD (Andrew Stein KICK) — USM win probability +8.9 pts (now 90%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 14:03: Eli Sawyer pass incomplete — SELA win probability +2.6 pts (now 15%) (top driver: SELA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 13:19: Eli Sawyer pass intercepted Dylan Lawrence return for 63 yds for a TD (Andrew Stein KICK) — USM win probability +8.6 pts (now 96%) (top driver: SELA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USM made the numbers' call on 4 of 6SELA made the numbers' call on 7 of 11
  1. Q1 10:25SELA 4th & 5 at USM 40, tied
    Close callPunted · 14.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.1%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    14.0%−0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    14.0%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:14SELA 4th & 7 at USM 7, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 14.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.7%−<0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    14.8%
    91% to make
    Punt
    14.2%−0.6
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:55USM 4th & 8 at USM 16, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.0%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:51SELA 4th & 8 at SELA 40, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.0%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.2%
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:26USM 4th & 19 at USM 30, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.0%−0.5
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:15SELA 4th & 6 at SELA 40, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.0%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:21SELA 4th & 9 at SELA 26, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.5%−0.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.9%
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:21USM 4th & 11 at SELA 31, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 87.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.5%−0.3
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.8%
    54% to make
    Punt
    86.0%−0.8
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:00USM 4th & 3 at SELA 26, up 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 80.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.9%−0.6
    64% to make
    Punt
    75.2%−5.3
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:26SELA 4th & 16 at SELA 20, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.7%−1.8
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.5%
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:18SELA 4th & 11 at SELA 24, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.4%−1.0
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.4%
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:20USM 4th & 3 at USM 47, up 11
    Close callPunted · 89.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.7%−0.5
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:28SELA 4th & 4 at SELA 44, down 18
    Close callPunted · 2.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.7%−0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:16SELA 4th & 10 at USM 28, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 3.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.6%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    2.9%
    60% to make
    Punt
    1.2%−1.7
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:09USM 4th & 8 at SELA 49, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.2%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.3%
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:00SELA 4th & 15 at USM 30, down 18
    Close callWent for it · 1.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.2%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    1.5%
    56% to make
    Punt
    1.2%−0.3
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:02SELA 4th & 1 at USM 36, down 25
    Close callWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%−<0.1
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    0.3%
    42% to make
    Punt
    0.2%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USM made the numbers' call on 5 of 5SELA made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 1:03USM Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 7:11USM Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:14SELA Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 5:22USM Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 13:19USM Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 1:44USM Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SELADrive 1PUNT
11 plays · 53 yds · 4:2910% → 11%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+8
90.0%
Eli Sawyer pass complete to Darius Lewis for 8 yds to the SELA 15Similar
Q1 14:19
2ND & 2
OWN 15
+7
89.8%
Antonio Martin Jr. run for 7 yds to the SELA 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:51
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
89.7%
Eli Sawyer pass complete to Da'shun Hugley for 6 yds to the SELA 28Similar
Q1 13:16
2ND & 4
OWN 28
+10
89.5%
Eli Sawyer pass complete to Errol Rogers for 10 yds to the SELA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
89.3%
Antonio Martin Jr. run for 2 yds to the SELA 40Similar
Q1 12:08
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+15
89.1%
(12:08) MARTIN JR., Anthonio rush to the right for a loss of 1 yard to the SLU39 (ROLAND, Demeco), clock 12:03. PENALTY USM Face mask on ROLAND, Demeco enforced 15 yards from the SLU40 to the USM45 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
89.0%
Tanner Murray run for 1 yd to the USM 44Similar
Q1 11:14
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+4
88.8%
Antonio Martin Jr. run for 4 yds to the USM 40Similar
Q1 10:34
3RD & 5
OPP 40
0
88.6%
Eli Sawyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:25
4TH & 5
OPP 40
0
88.6%
Jack Hunter punt for 31 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 2FUMBLE
1 play · 1 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q1 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+1
88.6%
Tiaquelin Mims run for 1 yd to the USM 10 Tiaquelin Mims fumbled, recovered by SELA Kaleb Proctor K. Proctor return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SELADrive 3FG
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:5812% → 12%
Q1 10:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
88.3%
Tanner Murray run for 3 yds to the USM 7Similar
Q1 9:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-1
88.1%
Antonio Martin Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the USM 8Similar
Q1 8:58
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
87.9%
Eli Sawyer pass complete to Harlan Dixon for 1 yd to the USM 7Similar
Q1 8:14
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+25
87.6%
Riley Callaghan 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:1288% → 87%
Q1 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+3
87.7%
Tate Rodemaker run for 3 yds to the USM 17Similar
Q1 7:37
2ND & 7
OWN 17
-1
87.3%
Kenyon Clay run for a loss of 1 yard to the USM 16Similar
Q1 7:01
3RD & 8
OWN 16
0
86.9%
Tate Rodemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:55
4TH & 8
OWN 16
0
86.8%
Bryce Lofton punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Darius Lewis at the SELA 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SELADrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:5613% → 14%
Q1 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-6
87.0%
Brandon Hayes run for a loss of 6 yards to the SELA 32Similar
Q1 6:14
2ND & 16
OWN 32
+4
86.9%
Eli Sawyer pass complete to Darius Lewis for 4 yds to the SELA 36Similar
Q1 5:33
3RD & 12
OWN 36
+4
86.7%
Eli Sawyer pass complete to Jaylon Domingeaux for 4 yds to the SELA 40Similar
Q1 4:51
4TH & 8
OWN 40
0
86.5%
Jack Hunter punt for 21 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · -9 yds · 1:1886% → 84%
Q1 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-9
85.6%
Tate Rodemaker sacked by Warren Peeples for a loss of 9 yards to the USM 30Similar
Q1 4:11
2ND & 19
OWN 30
0
85.0%
Tate Rodemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:04
3RD & 19
OWN 30
0
84.7%
Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Rodrigues Clark for no gain to the USM 30Similar
Q1 3:26
4TH & 19
OWN 30
+55
84.3%
Bryce Lofton punt for 55 yds , Darius Lewis returns for no gain to the SELA 13 , returns for no gain to the SELA 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 7TD
5 plays · 13 yds · 2:1486% → 87%
Q1 3:17
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+8
85.6%
Rodrigues Clark run for 8 yds to the SELA 5Similar
Q1 2:50
2ND & 2
OPP 5
+2
85.4%
Ethan Crawford run for 2 yds to the SELA 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
85.0%
(02:08) CLARK, Rodrigues rush up the middle for no gain to the SLU3 (HILL, Charles;RENO, KK), clock 02:01. PENALTY Before the snap, USM Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the SLU3 to the SLU8. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 1:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-1
84.9%
Rodrigues Clark run for a loss of 1 yard to the SELA 9Similar
Q1 1:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
86.8%
Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Kyirin Heath for 9 yds for a TD (Andrew Stein KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SELADrive 8PUNT
9 plays · 15 yds · 3:4814% → 15%
Q1 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
86.4%
Antonio Martin Jr. run for 7 yds to the SELA 32Similar
Q1 0:35
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-2
85.8%
Eli Sawyer pass complete to Darius Lewis for a loss of 2 yards to the SELA 30Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+6
86.1%
Eli Sawyer pass complete to Darius Lewis for 6 yds to the SELA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:34
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
85.6%
Antonio Martin Jr. run for 1 yd to the SELA 37Similar
Q2 13:53
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+8
85.5%
Antonio Martin Jr. run for 8 yds to the SELA 45Similar
Q2 13:15
3RD & 1
OWN 45
-5
84.8%
SE Louisiana Penalty, Illegal Substitution (KK Reno) to the SELA 40Similar
Q2 12:50
3RD & 6
OWN 40
0
84.9%
Eli Sawyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:15
4TH & 6
OWN 40
+8
85.4%
Alec Mahler punt for 56 yds , Tiaquelin Mims returns for 8 yds to the USM 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 9TD
12 plays · 88 yds · 4:5386% → 91%
Q2 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+7
85.6%
Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Kyirin Heath for 7 yds to the USM 19Similar
Q2 11:30
2ND & 3
OWN 19
+6
85.5%
Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Larry Simmons for 6 yds to the USM 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
85.3%
Tate Rodemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+19
85.2%
Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Rodrigues Clark for 4 yds to the USM 29 for a 1ST down SE Louisiana Penalty, Personal Foul (KK Reno) to the USM 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
86.1%
Kenyon Clay run for no gain to the USM 44Similar
Q2 10:08
2ND & 10
OWN 44
-4
85.6%
Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Kenyon Clay for a loss of 4 yards to the USM 40Similar
Q2 9:38
3RD & 14
OWN 40
-5
84.8%
Southern Miss Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the USM 35Similar
Q2 9:17
3RD & 19
OWN 35
+49
84.3%
Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Larry Simmons for 49 yds to the SELA 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:34
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+8
85.9%
Rodrigues Clark run for 8 yds to the SELA 8Similar
Q2 8:02
2ND & 2
OPP 8
+3
86.1%
Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Justyn Reid for 3 yds to the SELA 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
86.0%
Tate Rodemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
91.2%
Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Davis Dalton for 5 yds for a TD (Andrew Stein KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SELADrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:5011% → 10%
Q2 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
89.2%
Eli Sawyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:04
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
89.3%
Eli Sawyer pass complete to Ivan Drobocky for 1 yd to the SELA 26Similar
Q2 6:25
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
89.5%
Eli Sawyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:21
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
89.8%
Jack Hunter punt for 44 yds, downed at the USM 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 11MISSED FG
10 plays · 39 yds · 2:4992% → 92%
Q2 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+19
91.9%
Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Larry Simmons for 19 yds to the USM 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+11
92.4%
Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Larry Simmons for 11 yds to the SELA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:08
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
92.5%
Tate Rodemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:59
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
92.2%
Tate Rodemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:57
3RD & 10
OPP 40
+10
91.9%
Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Kyirin Heath for 10 yds to the SELA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:08
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
91.0%
Tate Rodemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:03
2ND & 10
OPP 30
-1
91.2%
Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Rodrigues Clark for a loss of 1 yard to the SELA 31Similar
Q2 3:27
3RD & 11
OPP 31
0
91.8%
Tate Rodemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:21
4TH & 11
OPP 31
+48
91.5%
Andrew Stein 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SELADrive 12TD
13 plays · 69 yds · 3:0110% → 17%
Q2 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
90.3%
Antonio Martin Jr. run for 4 yds to the SELA 35Similar
Q2 2:55
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+5
90.2%
Antonio Martin Jr. run for 5 yds to the SELA 40Similar
Q2 2:19
3RD & 1
OWN 40
+20
90.3%
Antonio Martin Jr. run for 20 yds to the USM 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:58
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-3
90.0%
Eli Sawyer pass complete to Ivan Drobocky for a loss of 3 yards to the USM 43Similar
Q2 1:18
2ND & 13
OPP 43
+1
90.5%
Antonio Martin Jr. run for 1 yd to the USM 42Similar
Q2 0:40
3RD & 12
OPP 42
+20
90.4%
Eli Sawyer pass complete to Jaylon Domingeaux for 20 yds to the USM 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
88.9%
Eli Sawyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:31
2ND & 10
OPP 22
0
89.1%
Eli Sawyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:25
3RD & 10
OPP 22
+12
89.6%
Eli Sawyer pass complete to Jaylon Domingeaux for 12 yds to the USM 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
82.6%
Antonio Martin Jr. run for 10 yds for a TD (Riley Callaghan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
84.1%
(00:10) [NH] Kneel down by RODEMAKER, Tate at USM24 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 14MISSED FG
13 plays · 49 yds · 5:5882% → 82%
Q3 14:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
81.8%
Rodrigues Clark run for a loss of 3 yards to the USM 22Similar
Q3 14:24
2ND & 13
OWN 22
0
81.3%
Tate Rodemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:20
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+15
80.5%
Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Larry Simmons for 15 yds to the USM 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-2
81.9%
Rodrigues Clark run for a loss of 2 yards to the USM 35Similar
Q3 13:08
2ND & 12
OWN 35
+2
81.0%
Rodrigues Clark run for 2 yds to the USM 37Similar
Q3 12:26
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+15
80.1%
SE Louisiana Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Keydrain Calligan) to the SELA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:21
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
82.6%
Rodrigues Clark run for 3 yds to the SELA 45Similar
Q3 11:44
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+6
82.3%
Rodrigues Clark run for 6 yds to the SELA 39Similar
Q3 11:03
3RD & 1
OPP 39
+6
83.6%
Kenyon Clay run for 6 yds to the SELA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:23
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
84.3%
Tiaquelin Mims run for 2 yds to the SELA 31Similar
Q3 9:48
2ND & 8
OPP 31
0
84.2%
Tate Rodemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:45
3RD & 8
OPP 31
+5
83.3%
Rodrigues Clark run for 5 yds to the SELA 26Similar
Q3 9:00
4TH & 3
OPP 26
+44
82.0%
Andrew Stein 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SELADrive 15PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 1:3220% → 18%
Q3 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
80.3%
Eli Sawyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:49
2ND & 10
OWN 26
-7
80.5%
Eli Sawyer sacked by Kristin Booth for a loss of 7 yards to the SELA 19Similar
Q3 8:10
3RD & 17
OWN 19
+1
81.3%
Antonio Martin Jr. run for 1 yd to the SELA 20Similar
Q3 7:26
4TH & 16
OWN 20
-2
81.6%
Alec Mahler punt for 42 yds , Tiaquelin Mims returns for a loss of 2 yards to the USM 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 16TD
6 plays · 64 yds · 1:5582% → 90%
Q3 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
81.7%
Tate Rodemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:12
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+15
81.2%
Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Tiaquelin Mims for 15 yds to the SELA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:47
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-10
83.0%
(06:47) RODEMAKER, Tate pass deep up the middle complete for 39 yards to SIMMONS, Larry caught at the SLU15 and advanced to the SLU10 (CALLIGAN, Keydrain), clock 06:37. PENALTY USM Holding on REID, Justyn enforced 10 yards from the SLU49 to the USM41 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 6:21
1ST & 20
OWN 41
-1
81.5%
Ethan Crawford run for a loss of 1 yard to the USM 40Similar
Q3 5:45
2ND & 21
OWN 40
+59
80.9%
Ethan Crawford pass complete to Justyn Reid for 59 yds to the SELA 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
89.8%
Rodrigues Clark run for 1 yd for a TD (Andrew Stein KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SELADrive 17PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 2:0412% → 10%
Q3 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
88.0%
Tanner Murray run for 1 yd to the SELA 26Similar
Q3 4:36
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+5
88.7%
Eli Sawyer pass complete to Errol Rogers for 5 yds to the SELA 31Similar
Q3 4:01
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-7
87.9%
Eli Sawyer sacked by Demeco Roland and Kk Reno for a loss of 7 yards to the SELA 24Similar
Q3 3:18
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
90.0%
Alec Mahler punt for 36 yds, downed at the USM 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:5191% → 90%
Q3 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
91.4%
Tate Rodemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:02
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+7
91.3%
Tate Rodemaker pass complete to JQ Gray for 7 yds to the USM 47Similar
Q3 2:24
3RD & 3
OWN 47
0
90.8%
Tate Rodemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:20
4TH & 3
OWN 47
0
90.3%
Bryce Lofton punt for 53 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SELADrive 19INT TD
12 plays · 34 yds · 3:5411% → 4%
Q3 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
88.8%
Antonio Martin Jr. run for 2 yds to the SELA 22Similar
Q3 1:42
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+9
89.0%
Eli Sawyer pass complete to Ivan Drobocky for 9 yds to the SELA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+22
87.9%
Antonio Martin Jr. run for 22 yds to the USM 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
86.2%
Tanner Murray run for 1 yd to the USM 46Similar
Q4 14:56
2ND & 9
OPP 46
-3
86.1%
Brandon Hayes run for a loss of 3 yards to the USM 49Similar
Q4 14:19
3RD & 12
OPP 49
+15
87.7%
Southern Miss Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Jay Jones) to the USM 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:03
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
85.1%
Eli Sawyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:58
2ND & 10
OPP 31
-5
85.2%
SE Louisiana Penalty, False Start (Jhy Orgeron) to the USM 36Similar
Q4 13:57
2ND & 15
OPP 36
-10
86.8%
(13:57) MURRAY, Tanner pass up the middle complete for 17 yards to DIXON, Harlan caught at the USM38 and advanced to the USM19 (MYERS, Braxton), clock 13:49. PENALTY SLU Holding on BOUDREAUX, Corin enforced 10 yards from the USM36 to the USM46 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 13:35
2ND & 25
OPP 46
0
87.5%
Eli Sawyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:19
3RD & 25
OPP 46
-63
96.1%
Eli Sawyer pass intercepted Dylan Lawrence return for 63 yds for a TD (Andrew Stein KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SELADrive 20PUNT
10 plays · 19 yds · 2:493% → 3%
Q4 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
96.8%
Eli Sawyer pass complete to Darius Lewis for 5 yds to the SELA 30Similar
Q4 12:51
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
96.9%
Eli Sawyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:47
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+8
96.9%
Harlan Dixon run for 8 yds to the SELA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
96.9%
Harlan Dixon run for 2 yds to the SELA 40Similar
Q4 11:39
2ND & 8
OWN 40
-5
97.3%
(11:39) SAWYER, Eli pass up the middle complete for 13 yards to LEWIS, Darius caught at the SLU46 and advanced to the USM47 (SLEDGE, Avery), clock 11:30. PENALTY SLU Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass enforced 5 yards from the SLU40 to the SLU35 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 11:09
2ND & 13
OWN 35
+9
97.4%
Harlan Dixon run for 9 yds to the SELA 44Similar
Q4 10:32
3RD & 4
OWN 44
0
97.4%
Eli Sawyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:28
4TH & 4
OWN 44
0
97.4%
Jack Hunter punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 21FUMBLE
1 play · 13 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+13
99.5%
Ethan Crawford run for 13 yds to the USM 28 Ethan Crawford fumbled, recovered by SELA Khamron Ford K. Ford return for 2 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SELADrive 22MISSED FG
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:523% → 3%
Q4 10:08
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
97.0%
Eli Sawyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:04
2ND & 10
OPP 28
0
97.2%
Harlan Dixon run for no gain to the USM 28Similar
Q4 9:25
3RD & 10
OPP 28
0
97.4%
Eli Sawyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:16
4TH & 10
OPP 28
+45
97.5%
Riley Callaghan 45 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 23PUNT
9 plays · 23 yds · 3:07100% → 100%
Q4 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+10
99.6%
Rodrigues Clark run for 10 yds to the USM 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-3
99.6%
Rodrigues Clark run for a loss of 3 yards to the USM 35Similar
Q4 8:07
2ND & 13
OWN 35
+1
99.6%
Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Tiaquelin Mims for 11 yds to the USM 46 Southern Miss Penalty, Offensive Holding (Kyirin Heath) to the USM 37Similar
Q4 7:48
2ND & 11
OWN 37
+12
99.6%
Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Kyirin Heath for 12 yds to the USM 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
99.7%
Rodrigues Clark run for no gain to the USM 49Similar
Q4 6:49
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+2
99.7%
Tate Rodemaker run for 2 yds to the SELA 49Similar
Q4 6:13
3RD & 8
OPP 49
0
99.6%
Tate Rodemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:09
4TH & 8
OPP 49
0
99.6%
Bryce Lofton punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Darius Lewis at the SELA 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SELADrive 24DOWNS
14 plays · 57 yds · 4:012% → 1%
Q4 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+24
98.1%
Eli Sawyer pass complete to Darius Lewis for 24 yds to the SELA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-6
98.4%
Eli Sawyer sacked by Eric Thomas Jr. for a loss of 6 yards to the SELA 31Similar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 16
OWN 31
+13
98.5%
Eli Sawyer pass complete to Brandon Hayes for 13 yds to the SELA 44Similar
Q4 4:40
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+4
98.5%
Harlan Dixon run for 4 yds to the SELA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+9
98.4%
Eli Sawyer pass complete to Jaylon Domingeaux for 9 yds to the USM 43Similar
Q4 3:46
2ND & 1
OPP 43
+6
98.3%
Eli Sawyer pass complete to Darius Lewis for 6 yds to the USM 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:23
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
98.3%
Eli Sawyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:17
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+12
98.3%
Eli Sawyer pass complete to Brandon Hayes for 12 yds to the USM 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
98.1%
Eli Sawyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:51
2ND & 10
OPP 25
-5
98.2%
Harlan Dixon run for a loss of 5 yards to the USM 30Similar
Q4 2:05
3RD & 15
OPP 30
0
98.4%
Eli Sawyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:00
4TH & 15
OPP 30
0
98.6%
Eli Sawyer pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 25TD
1 play · 70 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+70
99.9%
Kenyon Clay run for 70 yds for a TD (Andrew Stein KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SELADrive 26END OF GAME
5 plays · 33 yds · 1:310% → 0%
Q4 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+19
99.6%
Tanner Murray pass complete to Cade Collier for 19 yds to the USM 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
99.6%
Tanner Murray pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:15
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+1
99.6%
Rodeo Graham Jr. run for 1 yd to the USM 44Similar
Q4 0:39
3RD & 9
OPP 44
+8
99.6%
Rodeo Graham Jr. run for 8 yds to the USM 36Similar
Q4 0:02
4TH & 1
OPP 36
+5
99.6%
Tanner Murray run for 5 yds to the USM 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:22
Rodrigues Clark run for 1 yd for a TD (Andrew Stein KICK)
+8.9
TD · Q4 13:19
Eli Sawyer pass intercepted Dylan Lawrence return for 63 yds for a TD (Andrew Stein KICK)
+8.6
TD · Q2 0:14
Antonio Martin Jr. run for 10 yds for a TD (Riley Callaghan KICK)
-7.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com