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USA

South Alabama 20 at Ohio 27

OHIO
2024 · Week 2 · Sep 7, 2024 · Peden Stadium
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Win probability · OHIO
modelOHIO aheadUSA aheadconfidence bandkey playOHIO scoreUSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDTDTDTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 12:07 · Jack Wilson punt for 35 yds , Jamaal Pritchett returns for no gain to the USA 20 , returns for no gain to the USA 20
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore differentialTimeout advantage
+28.5+14.30−14.3−28.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 52Home team on offense+1.8Pregame prior−3.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.9Garbage-time factor+0.1Score differential−0.1Timeout advantage−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:43: Anthony Tyus III run for 7 yds for a TD (Gianni Spetic KICK) — OHIO win probability +13.0 pts (now 67%) (top driver: Lead backed by the offense's own timeouts).
  2. TD · Q2 1:25: Fluff Bothwell run for 8 yds for a TD (Laith Marjan KICK) — USA win probability +17.2 pts (now 55%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:36: Parker Navarro pass complete to Chase Hendricks for 33 yds for a TD (Gianni Spetic KICK) — OHIO win probability +18.3 pts (now 73%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 8:39: Parker Navarro run for 10 yds for a TD (Gianni Spetic KICK) — OHIO win probability +17.0 pts (now 84%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 3:16: Gianni Spetic 26 yd FG GOOD — OHIO win probability +12.7 pts (now 96%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
OHIO made the numbers' call on 5 of 8USA made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 11:28USA 4th & 4 at USA 43, tied
    Close callPunted · 50.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:05OHIO 4th & 2 at OHIO 40, tied
    Close callPunted · 50.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.4%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:38USA 4th & 11 at OHIO 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.8%−0.2
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    48.7%−0.3
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    49.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:03OHIO 4th & 15 at USA 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 50.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.2%−0.6
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    50.9%
    62% to make
    Punt
    49.2%−1.7
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:00USA 4th & 14 at OHIO 44, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.7%−0.7
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    45.8%−0.6
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    46.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:07OHIO 4th & 3 at midfield, up 3
    Close callPunted · 54.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.8%−0.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:58USA 4th & 2 at USA 44, down 10
    Close callPunted · 37.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.6%−0.6
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:54OHIO 4th & 1 at OHIO 18, up 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.9 ptsPunted · 62.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.2%−1.9
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:29USA 4th & 6 at OHIO 10, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 34.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.0%−0.2
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.2%
    88% to make
    Punt
    28.2%−6.0
    average punt
  10. Q2 3:18OHIO 4th & 8 at OHIO 27, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.2%−1.0
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.2%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:08USA 4th & 8 at USA 37, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.6%−1.0
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.6%
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:39USA 4th & 3 at OHIO 39, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.4%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    18.5%−1.9
    36% to make
    Punt
    18.6%−1.8
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:15USA 4th & 8 at OHIO 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 26.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.1%−2.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.2%
    75% to make
    Punt
    13.9%−12.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:03OHIO 4th & 16 at OHIO 17, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.9%−6.7
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.6%
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:09USA 4th & 14 at USA 47, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.8%−3.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.8%
    average punt
  16. Q4 11:09OHIO 4th & 1 at USA 43, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 70.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    70.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    62.3%−8.3
    28% to make
    Punt
    64.2%−6.4
    average punt
  17. Q4 3:16OHIO 4th & 5 at USA 8, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 85.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.6%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.7%
    90% to make
    Punt
    68.4%−15.3
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:08USA 4th & 17 at USA 12, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.0%−0.3
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.3%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OHIO made the numbers' call on 3 of 3USA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 10:43OHIO Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 1:25USA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:36OHIO Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 8:39OHIO Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 1:52USA Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USADrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 30 yds · 3:2855% → 54%
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-2
44.7%
Kentrel Bullock run for a loss of 2 yards to the USA 11Similar
Q1 14:56
2ND & 12
OWN 11
+10
44.7%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Jeremiah Webb for 10 yds to the USA 21Similar
Q1 14:56
3RD & 2
OWN 21
+2
44.7%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to DJ Thomas-Jones for 2 yds to the USA 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+14
44.7%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Devin Voisin for 14 yds to the USA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
44.7%
Bishop Davenport run for 3 yds to the USA 40Similar
Q1 14:56
2ND & 7
OWN 40
0
44.7%
Bishop Davenport pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:56
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+3
44.7%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to PJ Martin for 3 yds to the USA 43Similar
Q1 11:28
4TH & 4
OWN 43
0
45.6%
Aleksi Pulkkinen punt for 36 yds , Tony Mathis returns for no gain to the OHIO 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 3:2346% → 46%
Q1 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-2
45.7%
Anthony Tyus III run for a loss of 2 yards to the OHIO 19Similar
Q1 11:28
2ND & 12
OWN 19
+11
45.6%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Rodney Harris II for 11 yds fumbled, forced by Blayne Myrick, recovered by OHIO Rodney Harris II R. Harris II return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q1 11:28
3RD & 1
OWN 30
+2
45.7%
Anthony Tyus III run for 2 yds to the OHIO 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
45.7%
Parker Navarro pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:28
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+1
45.7%
Parker Navarro run for 1 yd to the OHIO 33Similar
Q1 11:28
3RD & 9
OWN 33
+7
45.5%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Coleman Owen for 7 yds to the OHIO 40Similar
Q1 8:05
4TH & 2
OWN 40
0
46.4%
Jack Wilson punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 3PUNT
11 plays · 45 yds · 3:2754% → 53%
Q1 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+8
46.3%
Bishop Davenport run for 8 yds to the USA 19Similar
Q1 8:05
2ND & 2
OWN 19
-5
46.1%
BOTHWELL, Fluff rush to the right for a gain of 12 yards to the USA31 (BRAWLEY, Austin). PENALTY Before the snap, USA Illegal Shift enforced 5 yards from the USA19 to the USA14. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 8:05
2ND & 7
OWN 14
+18
46.3%
Fluff Bothwell run for 18 yds to the USA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
46.0%
Fluff Bothwell run for 2 yds to the USA 34Similar
Q1 8:05
2ND & 8
OWN 34
0
46.0%
Bishop Davenport pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:05
3RD & 8
OWN 34
+23
46.3%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to PJ Martin for 23 yds to the OHIO 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:05
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-1
45.5%
Iverson Celestine run for a loss of 1 yard to the OHIO 44Similar
Q1 8:05
2ND & 11
OPP 44
0
45.6%
Bishop Davenport pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:05
3RD & 11
OPP 44
0
45.9%
Bishop Davenport pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:38
4TH & 11
OPP 44
0
47.1%
Aleksi Pulkkinen punt for 25 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 4FG
6 plays · 54 yds · 1:3547% → 49%
Q1 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+59
47.1%
Rickey Hunt Jr. run for 59 yds to the USA 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:38
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
48.6%
Parker Navarro pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:40
2ND & 10
OPP 22
0
49.2%
Parker Navarro pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:40
3RD & 10
OPP 22
-5
48.7%
Parker Navarro sacked by Jordan Norman and TEAM for a loss of 5 yards to the USA 27Similar
Q1 3:03
4TH & 15
OPP 27
+45
49.1%
Gianni Spetic 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 5PUNT
9 plays · 31 yds · 3:0351% → 50%
Q1 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
49.2%
Kentrel Bullock run for 22 yds to the USA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-2
48.0%
Bishop Davenport run for a loss of 2 yards to the USA 45Similar
Q1 3:03
2ND & 12
OWN 45
0
48.6%
Bishop Davenport pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:03
3RD & 12
OWN 45
+15
49.1%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Devin Voisin for 15 yds to the OHIO 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:03
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
47.7%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for 3 yds to the OHIO 37Similar
Q1 3:03
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+3
47.7%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for 3 yds to the OHIO 34Similar
Q1 3:03
3RD & 4
OPP 34
-10
47.6%
DAVENPORT, Bishop pass to the right incomplete intended for SANDGREN, Shamar broken up by WALKER, DJ at the OHI34. PENALTY USA Holding on CARNEY, Malachi enforced 10 yards from the OHI34 to the OHI44 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 3:03
3RD & 14
OPP 44
0
48.9%
Bishop Davenport pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:00
4TH & 14
OPP 44
0
50.3%
Aleksi Pulkkinen punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Coleman Owen at the OHIO 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 6PUNT
10 plays · 20 yds · 2:5351% → 52%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
50.7%
Parker Navarro pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+9
50.5%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Eian Pugh for 9 yds to the OHIO 39Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 39
-5
51.2%
Ohio Penalty, False Start (TEAM) to the OHIO 34Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 34
+9
50.2%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Coleman Owen for 9 yds to the OHIO 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
52.0%
South Alabama Penalty, Offsides (5 Yards) to the OHIO 48Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 5
OWN 48
-10
52.2%
TYUS III, Anthony rush to the left for a gain of 23 yards to the USA29 (MILLER, Wesley), out of bounds. PENALTY OHI Holding on ATKINSON, Christophe enforced 10 yards from the OHI48 to the OHI38 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 38
+10
51.1%
Anthony Tyus III run for 10 yds to the OHIO 48Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+2
52.1%
Anthony Tyus III run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
50
0
51.6%
Parker Navarro pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:07
4TH & 3
50
+35
52.0%
Jack Wilson punt for 35 yds , Jamaal Pritchett returns for no gain to the USA 20 , returns for no gain to the USA 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 7TD
3 plays · 20 yds · 1:2454% → 67%
Q2 12:07
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
53.9%
Anthony Tyus III run for 5 yds to the USA 15Similar
Q2 12:07
2ND & 5
OPP 15
+8
53.9%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Mason Williams for 8 yds to the USA 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
66.9%
Anthony Tyus III run for 7 yds for a TD (Gianni Spetic KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 25 yds · 1:3842% → 37%
Q2 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
58.5%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for 5 yds to the USA 24Similar
Q2 10:36
2ND & 5
OWN 24
+12
58.1%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for 12 yds to the USA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
57.6%
Bishop Davenport pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:09
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+8
61.8%
Fluff Bothwell run for 8 yds to the USA 44Similar
Q2 9:09
3RD & 2
OWN 44
0
61.3%
Bishop Davenport pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:58
4TH & 2
OWN 44
0
62.6%
Aleksi Pulkkinen punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Coleman Owen at the OHIO 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 2:0469% → 69%
Q2 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-1
68.9%
Rickey Hunt Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the OHIO 8Similar
Q2 8:58
2ND & 11
OWN 8
+1
68.7%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Rickey Hunt Jr. for 1 yd to the OHIO 9Similar
Q2 8:58
3RD & 10
OWN 9
+9
68.0%
Parker Navarro run for 9 yds to the OHIO 18Similar
Q2 6:54
4TH & 1
OWN 18
0
68.6%
Jack Wilson punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Jamaal Pritchett at the USA 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 10FG
5 plays · 54 yds · 2:2537% → 38%
Q2 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+13
63.5%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Shamar Sandgren for 13 yds to the USA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:54
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
60.9%
Kentrel Bullock run for 1 yd to the OHIO 13Similar
Q2 6:54
2ND & 9
OPP 13
0
60.9%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Iverson Celestine for no gain to the OHIO 13Similar
Q2 6:54
3RD & 9
OPP 13
+3
62.2%
Bishop Davenport run for 3 yds to the OHIO 10Similar
Q2 4:29
4TH & 6
OPP 10
+28
62.2%
Laith Marjan 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:1167% → 66%
Q2 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
67.4%
Anthony Tyus III run for 3 yds to the OHIO 28Similar
Q2 4:29
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-1
67.2%
Anthony Tyus III run for a loss of 1 yard to the OHIO 27Similar
Q2 4:29
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
66.2%
Parker Navarro pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:18
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
66.3%
Jack Wilson punt for 33 yds, downed at the USA 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 12TD
7 plays · 60 yds · 1:5337% → 55%
Q2 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
63.0%
Bishop Davenport run for 8 yds to the USA 48Similar
Q2 3:18
2ND & 2
OWN 48
+15
61.6%
DAVENPORT, Bishop pass to the left intercepted by BOWMAN, Stellan at the OHI44 intended for BOTHWELL, Fluff. Bowman return for 6 yards to the USA50 (BOTHWELL, Fluff). PENALTY OHI Roughing the Passer on DOGGETTE, CJ enforced 15 yards from the USA48 to the OHI37 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 3:18
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+13
61.5%
Fluff Bothwell run for 13 yds to the OHIO 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:56
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+9
62.1%
Fluff Bothwell run for 9 yds to the OHIO 15Similar
Q2 1:56
2ND & 1
OPP 15
+7
62.0%
Fluff Bothwell run for 7 yds to the OHIO 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
44.8%
Fluff Bothwell run for 8 yds for a TD (Laith Marjan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 13TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 0:4952% → 73%
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
51.7%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Caleb Gossett for 6 yds to the OHIO 31Similar
Q2 1:25
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+4
53.0%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Coleman Owen for 4 yds to the OHIO 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
52.1%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Caleb Gossett for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
50
0
54.9%
Parker Navarro pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:25
2ND & 10
50
+8
54.4%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Rodney Harris II for 8 yds to the USA 42Similar
Q2 1:25
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+9
54.3%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Coleman Owen for 9 yds to the USA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+33
72.6%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Chase Hendricks for 33 yds for a TD (Gianni Spetic KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:2833% → 31%
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
67.1%
Bishop Davenport pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:36
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
67.5%
Bishop Davenport pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:14
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+2
68.7%
Kentrel Bullock run for 2 yds to the USA 37Similar
Q2 0:08
4TH & 8
OWN 37
0
69.1%
Aleksi Pulkkinen punt for 38 yds , Coleman Owen returns for no gain to the OHIO 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 15END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0067% → 67%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
67.0%
[NHSG] Kneel down by NAVARRO, Parker at OHI23 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 16TD
12 plays · 76 yds · 6:1465% → 84%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
64.5%
Anthony Tyus III run for 6 yds to the OHIO 30Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 4
OWN 30
+4
65.4%
Anthony Tyus III run for 4 yds to the OHIO 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-5
64.7%
Ohio Penalty, False Start (Jacob Dennison) to the OHIO 29Similar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 15
OWN 29
+5
64.4%
Parker Navarro run for 5 yds to the OHIO 34Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+9
64.5%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Caleb Gossett for 9 yds to the OHIO 43Similar
Q3 14:53
3RD & 1
OWN 43
+14
65.7%
Parker Navarro run for 14 yds to the USA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
66.9%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Rodney Harris II for 9 yds to the USA 34Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 1
OPP 34
+2
67.1%
Anthony Tyus III run for 2 yds to the USA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+10
67.1%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Chase Hendricks for 10 yds to the USA 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-3
67.1%
Parker Navarro run for a loss of 3 yards to the USA 25Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 13
OPP 25
+15
66.8%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Chase Hendricks for 15 yds to the USA 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
83.7%
Parker Navarro run for 10 yds for a TD (Gianni Spetic KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 17TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 6:4721% → 37%
Q3 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
79.4%
Kentrel Bullock run for 5 yds to the USA 30Similar
Q3 8:39
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+13
77.8%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Devin Voisin for 13 yds to the USA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
77.6%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Shamar Sandgren for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 8:39
2ND & 3
50
0
75.7%
Kentrel Bullock run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 8:39
3RD & 3
50
+4
76.7%
Bishop Davenport run for 4 yds to the OHIO 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:39
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-14
76.0%
South Alabama Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Bishop Davenport) to the USA 40Similar
Q3 8:39
2ND & 24
OWN 40
+3
79.6%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Kentrel Bullock for 3 yds to the USA 43Similar
Q3 8:39
3RD & 21
OWN 43
+18
79.8%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Devin Voisin for 18 yds to the OHIO 39Similar
Q3 8:39
4TH & 3
OPP 39
+6
77.0%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Fluff Bothwell for 6 yds to the OHIO 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:39
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
75.2%
Bishop Davenport run for 3 yds to the OHIO 30Similar
Q3 8:39
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+4
74.7%
Fluff Bothwell run for 4 yds to the OHIO 26Similar
Q3 8:39
3RD & 3
OPP 26
+17
75.7%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Devin Voisin for 17 yds to the OHIO 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
63.4%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for 9 yds for a TD (Laith Marjan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 18FUMBLE
1 play · 4 yds · 0:0076% → 76%
Q3 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-4
76.2%
Parker Navarro sacked for a loss of 4 yards to the OHIO 41 Parker Navarro fumbled, recovered by USA Carlos Johnson Jr. , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 19FG
6 plays · 21 yds · 2:2133% → 39%
Q3 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
67.4%
Fluff Bothwell run for 4 yds to the OHIO 37Similar
Q3 1:36
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+15
66.7%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Shamar Sandgren for 15 yds to the OHIO 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-3
64.8%
Fluff Bothwell run for a loss of 3 yards to the OHIO 25Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 13
OPP 25
+3
67.5%
Bishop Davenport run for 3 yds to the OHIO 22Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 22
+2
68.6%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for 2 yds to the OHIO 20Similar
Q4 14:15
4TH & 8
OPP 20
+38
60.7%
Laith Marjan 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 20PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 2:0665% → 62%
Q4 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
64.5%
Anthony Tyus III run for 1 yd to the OHIO 24Similar
Q4 14:09
2ND & 9
OWN 24
+7
64.1%
Anthony Tyus III run for 7 yds to the OHIO 31Similar
Q4 14:09
3RD & 2
OWN 31
+1
63.8%
Anthony Tyus III run for 1 yd to the OHIO 32Similar
Q4 14:09
4TH & 1
OWN 32
-15
62.6%
Ohio Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Carson Heidecker) to the OHIO 17Similar
Q4 12:03
4TH & 16
OWN 17
0
61.8%
Jack Wilson punt for 32 yds, downed at the OHIO 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 21PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:5442% → 34%
Q4 12:03
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-4
57.7%
Bishop Davenport run for a loss of 4 yards to the USA 47 Bishop Davenport fumbled, recovered by USA Bishop Davenport B. Davenport return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q4 12:03
2ND & 14
OWN 47
0
62.4%
Bishop Davenport pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:03
3RD & 14
OWN 47
0
63.6%
Bishop Davenport pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:09
4TH & 14
OWN 47
+7
65.7%
Aleksi Pulkkinen punt for 46 yds , Coleman Owen returns for 7 yds to the OHIO 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 22FG
16 plays · 78 yds · 7:5365% → 96%
Q4 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+5
65.4%
Rickey Hunt Jr. run for 5 yds to the OHIO 19Similar
Q4 11:09
2ND & 5
OWN 19
+7
64.5%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Chase Hendricks for 7 yds to the OHIO 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
65.1%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Coleman Owen for 4 yds to the OHIO 30Similar
Q4 11:09
2ND & 6
OWN 30
0
64.9%
Parker Navarro pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:09
3RD & 6
OWN 30
+18
63.5%
Parker Navarro run for 18 yds to the OHIO 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
68.8%
Rickey Hunt Jr. run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 11:09
2ND & 8
50
+2
68.8%
Parker Navarro run for 2 yds to the USA 48Similar
Q4 11:09
3RD & 6
OPP 48
+5
67.6%
Rickey Hunt Jr. run for 5 yds to the USA 43Similar
Q4 11:09
4TH & 1
OPP 43
+15
65.7%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Mason Williams for 15 yds to the USA 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:09
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+15
69.8%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Rodney Harris II for 15 yds to the USA 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:09
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
69.8%
Parker Navarro run for no gain to the USA 13Similar
Q4 4:02
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+2
83.8%
Parker Navarro run for 2 yds to the USA 11Similar
Q4 4:02
3RD & 8
OPP 11
+3
82.8%
Rickey Hunt Jr. run for 3 yds to the USA 8Similar
Q4 3:16
4TH & 5
OPP 8
+26
95.5%
Gianni Spetic 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 23PUNT
6 plays · -7 yds · 1:0313% → 11%
Q4 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+7
87.1%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for 7 yds to the USA 26Similar
Q4 3:11
2ND & 3
OWN 26
0
85.7%
Bishop Davenport pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:11
3RD & 3
OWN 26
-5
87.1%
South Alabama Penalty, False Start (Malachi Carney) to the USA 21Similar
Q4 3:11
3RD & 8
OWN 21
-10
88.2%
South Alabama Penalty, Offensive Holding (Reed Buys) to the USA 12Similar
Q4 3:11
3RD & 17
OWN 12
0
88.3%
Bishop Davenport pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:08
4TH & 17
OWN 12
0
88.6%
Aleksi Pulkkinen punt for 47 yds, downed at the OHIO 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 24END OF GAME
11 plays · 25 yds · 1:5898% → 99%
Q4 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+12
97.6%
Anthony Tyus III run for 12 yds to the OHIO 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
97.9%
Anthony Tyus III run for no gain to the OHIO 43Similar
Q4 1:49
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+5
97.8%
Parker Navarro run for 5 yds to the OHIO 48Similar
Q4 1:37
3RD & 5
OWN 48
+15
98.0%
Anthony Tyus III run for 15 yds to the USA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:37
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-2
98.1%
[NHSG] Kneel down by NAVARRO, Parker at USA39 (team loss of 2).Similar
Q4 1:37
2ND & 12
OPP 39
-3
98.0%
[NHSG] Kneel down by NAVARRO, Parker at USA42 (team loss of 3).Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 15
OPP 42
-2
98.5%
[NHSG] Kneel down by NAVARRO, Parker at USA44 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:36
Parker Navarro pass complete to Chase Hendricks for 33 yds for a TD (Gianni Spetic KICK)
+18.3
TD · Q2 1:25
Fluff Bothwell run for 8 yds for a TD (Laith Marjan KICK)
-17.2
TD · Q3 8:39
Parker Navarro run for 10 yds for a TD (Gianni Spetic KICK)
+17
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com