2024 · Week 2 · Sep 7, 2024 · Bridgeforth Stadium
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Win probability · JMU
modelJMU aheadGWEB aheadconfidence bandkey playJMU scoreGWEB score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 5:24 · Tyler Ridell pass complete to Camden Overton for 7 yds to the JMU 5 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q3 10:30: Tyler Purdy run for 1 yd for a TD (Noe Ruelas KICK) — JMU win probability +4.4 pts (now 91%) (top driver: JMU has the ball).
- FG · Q3 1:35: Jay Billingsley 30 yd FG GOOD — GWEB win probability +3.4 pts (now 14%) (top driver: GWEB has the ball).
- FG · Q4 11:14: Noe Ruelas 26 yd FG GOOD — JMU win probability +6.1 pts (now 92%) (top driver: JMU has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 3:01: Tyler Ridell pass incomplete — JMU win probability +4.0 pts (now 89%) (top driver: GWEB has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 2:14: Timeout Gardner-Webb, clock 02:14 — JMU win probability +3.6 pts (now 95%) (top driver: JMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
JMU made the numbers' call on 5 of 8GWEB made the numbers' call on 8 of 11
- Q1 13:25JMU 4th & 10 at JMU 25, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 97.7% before the snapGo for it97.7%−0.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.8%average punt
- Q1 9:47GWEB 4th & 5 at JMU 40, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call2.8%42% to convertField goal2.7%−0.134% to makePunt2.7%−0.1average punt
- Q1 8:06JMU 4th & 2 at JMU 48, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call97.0%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt96.9%−0.1average punt
- Q1 7:11GWEB 4th & 2 at JMU 40, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call3.3%57% to convertField goal3.1%−0.234% to makePunt3.1%−0.1average punt
- Q2 14:55JMU 4th & 2 at GWEB 26, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 95.3% before the snapGo for it95.3%57% to convertField goalTheir call95.3%−0.164% to makePunt94.9%−0.4average punt
- Q2 8:51GWEB 4th & 4 at JMU 26, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 7.2% before the snapGo for it7.2%48% to convertField goalTheir call7.2%−0.164% to makePunt6.3%−0.9average punt
- Q2 7:03JMU 4th & 13 at JMU 44, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.7% before the snapGo for it90.3%−0.620% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call91.0%average punt
- Q2 4:50GWEB 4th & 1 at GWEB 14, up 3Close callPunted · 9.6% before the snapGo for it9.9%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call9.4%−0.5average punt
- Q2 3:49JMU 4th & 9 at GWEB 44, down 3Close callPunted · 89.1% before the snapGo for it89.0%32% to convertField goal88.6%−0.327% to makePuntTheir call88.9%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 1:34GWEB 4th & 10 at JMU 40, up 3Close callPunted · 13.1% before the snapGo for it12.8%30% to convertField goal12.8%−<0.134% to makePuntTheir call12.6%−0.2average punt
- Q2 0:00JMU 4th & 1 at JMU 30, down 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 85.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call86.0%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt84.6%−1.4average punt
- Q3 14:06GWEB 4th & 8 at GWEB 27, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.0% before the snapGo for it13.8%−0.833% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call14.6%average punt
- Q3 7:14JMU 4th & 8 at GWEB 30, up 4Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 88.8% before the snapGo for it88.6%−0.234% to convertField goalTheir call88.8%56% to makePunt88.0%−0.9average punt
- Q3 5:33GWEB 4th & 1 at GWEB 34, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call10.5%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt9.8%−0.7average punt
- Q3 1:35GWEB 4th & 13 at JMU 13, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 10.5% before the snapGo for it8.7%−1.517% to convertField goalTheir call10.2%85% to makePunt4.7%−5.6average punt
- Q4 11:14JMU 4th & 4 at GWEB 8, up 4Close callKicked a field goal · 83.3% before the snapGo for it83.0%42% to convertField goalTheir call82.2%−0.890% to makePunt72.1%−10.9average punt
- Q4 7:45GWEB 4th & 6 at GWEB 39, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call10.5%40% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt10.3%−0.3average punt
- Q4 5:24GWEB 4th & 2 at JMU 12, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call12.6%56% to convertField goal11.9%−0.786% to makePunt3.5%−9.1average punt
- Q4 2:37GWEB 4th & 14 at JMU 14, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call10.3%16% to convertField goal10.1%−0.284% to makePunt4.2%−6.0average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
JMU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q3 10:30JMU Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call89.1%97% to makeGo for two89.0%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartJMUDrive 1PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 1:3598% → 98%
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
98.0%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to George Pettaway for 1 yd to the JMU 26Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-1
98.0%
Alonza Barnett III sacked by Pius Njenge for a loss of 1 yard to the JMU 25Similar
Q1 13:25
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+6
97.8%
Ryan Hanson punt for 53 yds , Anthony Lowe returns for 6 yds to the GWEB 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GWEBDrive 2DOWNS9 plays · 32 yds · 3:382% → 3%
Q1 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
97.8%
Tyler Ridell pass complete to Caleb Borders for 5 yds to the GWEB 33Similar
Q1 13:25
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+8
97.8%
Tyler Ridell pass complete to Caleb Borders for 8 yds to the GWEB 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
97.8%
Tyler Ridell pass complete to Quasean Holmes for 4 yds to the JMU 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 3DOWNS5 plays · 8 yds · 1:4197% → 97%
Q1 9:47
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+6
97.3%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Cam Ross for 6 yds to the JMU 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GWEBDrive 4INT6 plays · 18 yds · 3:053% → 4%
Q1 7:11
2ND & 6
OPP 44
-5
96.8%
Gardner-Webb Penalty, Illegal Forward Pass (Tyler Ridell) to the JMU 46Similar
Q1 7:11
4TH & 2
OPP 40
+5
96.8%
Tyler Ridell pass complete to Edward Saydee for 5 yds to the JMU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:01
2ND & 5
OPP 30
0
96.3%
Tyler Ridell pass intercepted Jacob Thomas return for no gain to the JMU 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 5MISSED FG14 plays · 63 yds · 5:0697% → 96%
Q1 5:01
2ND & 1
OWN 33
+13
96.6%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Taylor Thompson for 13 yds to the JMU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:01
3RD & 7
OWN 49
-10
96.6%
BARNETT III, Alonza scrambles to the right for a gain of 5 yards to the GWU46 (ROSE, Steven). PENALTY JMU Holding on SWEAZIE, Carter enforced 10 yards from the JMU49 to the JMU39 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 5:01
3RD & 17
OWN 39
+17
96.5%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Yamir Knight for 17 yds to the GWEB 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:01
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+6
96.7%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Yamir Knight for 6 yds to the GWEB 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:01
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-5
96.7%
James Madison Penalty, Illegal Snap on DAVIS, Brett enforced (-5 Yards) to the GWEB 39Similar
Q1 5:01
1ST & 15
OPP 39
-4
96.6%
Ayo Adeyi run for a loss of 4 yards to the GWEB 46 Ayo Adeyi fumbled, recovered by JMU Ayo AdeyiSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GWEBDrive 6FG14 plays · 48 yds · 6:045% → 8%
Q2 14:55
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+10
95.2%
Tyler Ridell pass complete to Camden Overton for 10 yds to the GWEB 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:36
3RD & 7
OWN 42
+3
94.5%
Tyler Ridell pass complete to Quasean Holmes for 3 yds to the GWEB 45Similar
Q2 12:36
4TH & 4
OWN 45
+10
94.6%
RIDELL, Tyler pass to the right incomplete thrown to the GWU45. PENALTY JMU Holding on EAGLIN, Justin enforced 10 yards from the GWU45 to the JMU45 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 12:36
3RD & 1
OPP 36
+4
94.2%
Tyler Ridell pass complete to Camden Overton for 4 yds to the JMU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 7PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 1:4893% → 92%
Q2 8:51
3RD & 7
50
-6
93.2%
Alonza Barnett III sacked by Jackson Marshall and Raquon Hartley for a loss of 6 yards to the JMU 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GWEBDrive 8PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 2:138% → 9%
Q2 7:03
3RD & 4
OWN 11
+3
91.9%
Tyler Ridell pass complete to Ze'Vian Capers for 3 yds to the GWEB 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 9PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 1:0192% → 90%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GWEBDrive 10PUNT11 plays · 40 yds · 2:1510% → 14%
Q2 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
89.8%
Tyler Ridell pass complete to Anthony Lowe for 12 yds to the GWEB 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+15
89.4%
RIDELL, Tyler pass deep to the right incomplete intended for BORDERS, Caleb thrown to the JMU50. PENALTY JMU Pass Interference on TAYLOR, Jordan enforced 15 yards to the GWU47 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 3:49
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-15
88.5%
RIDELL, Tyler pass to the left complete for 18 yards to CAPERS, Ze'Vian caught at the JMU27 and advanced to the JMU22 (FLOWE, KJ). PENALTY GWU Personal Foul on FERGUSON, Evan enforced 15 yards from the JMU40 to the GWU45 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 11DOWNS8 plays · 27 yds · 1:3486% → 86%
GWEBDrive 12PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 0:5414% → 14%
Q3 14:06
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
86.2%
Nick Bigelow punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Cam Ross at the JMU 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 13TD10 plays · 58 yds · 3:3687% → 91%
Q3 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
87.1%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Cam Ross for 7 yds to the JMU 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GWEBDrive 14INT3 plays · -3 yds · 1:2810% → 10%
JMUDrive 15FG5 plays · 2 yds · 1:4891% → 92%
GWEBDrive 16FG13 plays · 62 yds · 5:3910% → 14%
JMUDrive 17FG13 plays · 66 yds · 5:2187% → 92%
Q3 1:35
3RD & 8
OWN 28
+9
85.9%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Dylan Williams for 9 yds to the JMU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+22
86.6%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Logan Kyle for 22 yds to the GWEB 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+7
87.7%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Taylor Thompson for 7 yds to the GWEB 34Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+6
88.1%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Taylor Thompson for 6 yds to the GWEB 24Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 8
-5
88.1%
James Madison Penalty, False Start (Carter Sweazie) to the GWEB 13Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 13
+5
88.1%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to George Pettaway for 5 yds to the GWEB 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GWEBDrive 18DOWNS16 plays · 61 yds · 8:3710% → 8%
Q4 10:55
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+10
89.8%
Tyler Ridell pass complete to Giovanni Adopte for 10 yds to the GWEB 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
88.7%
Tyler Ridell pass complete to Anthony Lowe for a loss of 1 yard to the GWEB 34Similar
Q4 10:00
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+5
89.3%
Tyler Ridell pass complete to Camden Overton for 5 yds to the GWEB 39Similar
Q4 7:45
4TH & 6
OWN 39
+22
89.2%
Tyler Ridell pass complete to Anthony Lowe for 22 yds to the JMU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:35
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+8
85.5%
Tyler Ridell pass complete to Edward Saydee for 8 yds to the JMU 12Similar
Q4 5:24
4TH & 2
OPP 12
+7
87.8%
Tyler Ridell pass complete to Camden Overton for 7 yds to the JMU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-7
84.7%
Tyler Ridell sacked by Chris Fitzgerald and Amar Thomas for a loss of 7 yards to the JMU 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 19END OF GAME7 plays · 30 yds · 2:1495% → 97%
Q4 0:00
3RD & 8
OWN 46
-2
96.9%
[SG] Kneel down by BARNETT III, Alonza at JMU44 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 11:14
Noe Ruelas 26 yd FG GOOD
+6.1
TD · Q3 10:30
Tyler Purdy run for 1 yd for a TD (Noe Ruelas KICK)
+4.4
KEY PLAY · Q4 3:01
Tyler Ridell pass incomplete
+4