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LAM

Lamar 27 at Texas State 34

TXST
2024 · Week 1 · Aug 31, 2024 · Bobcat Stadium (TX)
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Win probability · TXST
modelTXST aheadLAM aheadconfidence bandkey playTXST scoreLAM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDFGFGTDTDTDTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 4:42 · Khalan Griffin run for 10 yds to the TXST 3 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorTimeout advantage
+31.0+15.50−15.5−31.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 120Home team on offense+12.6Pregame prior+7.6Score differential+5.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.9Garbage-time factor+2.4Timeout advantage−0.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 13:37: Damien Moore run for 18 yds for a TD (Chris Esqueda KICK) — LAM win probability +7.9 pts (now 21%) (top driver: LAM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 13:44: Sevonne Rhea 47 Yd pass from Robert Coleman (Chris Esqueda Kick) — LAM win probability +18.2 pts (now 36%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. TD · Q4 9:30: Joey Hobert 37 Yd pass from Jordan McCloud (Mason Shipley Kick) — TXST win probability +20.8 pts (now 96%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 4:11: Jayden Boyd 9 Yd pass from Robert Coleman (Chris Esqueda Kick) — LAM win probability +9.4 pts (now 12%) (top driver: LAM has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:37: Chris Esqueda 27 yd FG GOOD — LAM win probability +6.0 pts (now 11%) (top driver: LAM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TXST made the numbers' call on 6 of 6LAM made the numbers' call on 10 of 11
  1. Q1 10:59LAM 4th & 3 at TXST 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 48.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    48.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    47.9%−0.2
    25% to make
    Punt
    48.0%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:55LAM 4th & 12 at LAM 23, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.6%−1.6
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:22LAM 4th & 28 at LAM 18, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.9%−2.3
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.2%
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:44TXST 4th & 5 at LAM 23, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 67.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.8%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.9%
    70% to make
    Punt
    63.7%−3.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:32LAM 4th & 20 at LAM 15, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.5%−4.1
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:50TXST 4th & 25 at LAM 27, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 74.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.6%−3.3
    7% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    73.9%
    62% to make
    Punt
    67.5%−6.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:21LAM 4th & 5 at LAM 32, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.3%−1.0
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:23TXST 4th & 2 at LAM 3, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 80.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    79.7%
    49% to convert
    Field goal
    79.3%−0.4
    93% to make
    Punt
    72.6%−7.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:28TXST 4th & 8 at LAM 29, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 76.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.6%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    76.0%
    58% to make
    Punt
    71.2%−4.8
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:42LAM 4th & 1 at TXST 13, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    14.5%−2.6
    85% to make
    Punt
    6.1%−11.0
    average punt
  11. Q3 2:58LAM 4th & 11 at TXST 11, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 14.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.7%−1.4
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    14.1%
    87% to make
    Punt
    6.9%−7.2
    average punt
  12. Q4 11:49TXST 4th & 1 at TXST 34, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 68.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    70.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    67.6%−3.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 7:14LAM 4th & 15 at LAM 20, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.1%−0.6
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.7%
    average punt
  14. Q4 2:24TXST 4th & 12 at TXST 16, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.8%−1.1
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.9%
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:00LAM 4th & 3 at TXST 31, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    4.9%−1.4
    54% to make
    Punt
    4.8%−1.5
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:37LAM 4th & 10 at TXST 10, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 5.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.9%−0.7
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    6.6%
    88% to make
    Punt
    4.1%−2.4
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:00LAM 4th & 16 at LAM 35, down 7
    Close callWent for it · 9.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.1%−0.3
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    8.5%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TXST made the numbers' call on 3 of 4LAM made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 13:44TXST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:02TXST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    57.6%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    57.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 13:37LAM Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 13:44LAM Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.1%−0.3
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 9:30TXST Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 5:29TXST Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    98.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 4:11LAM Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.8%−0.7
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TXSTDrive 1TD
5 plays · 68 yds · 1:1273% → 73%
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+10
72.9%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Kole Wilson for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
72.9%
Jordan McCloud run for 5 yds to the TXST 47Similar
Q1 14:56
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+19
72.9%
Ismail Mahdi run for 19 yds to the LAM 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:44
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+34
73.1%
Jaden Williams 34 Yd pass from Jordan McCloud (Mason Shipley Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LAMDrive 2DOWNS
8 plays · 23 yds · 2:3127% → 27%
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
73.0%
Khalan Griffin run for no gain to the LAM 32Similar
Q1 12:56
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+16
73.1%
Robert Coleman run for 16 yds to the LAM 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
72.9%
Khalan Griffin run for 7 yds to the TXST 45Similar
Q1 11:41
2ND & 3
OPP 45
0
72.9%
Khalan Griffin run for no gain to the TXST 45Similar
Q1 11:02
3RD & 3
OPP 45
0
73.0%
Robert Coleman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:59
4TH & 3
OPP 45
0
73.1%
Robert Coleman pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 3TD
9 plays · 55 yds · 3:4674% → 78%
Q1 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
73.8%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Chris Dawn Jr.Similar
Q1 10:26
2ND & 2
OPP 47
+1
74.0%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Joey HobertSimilar
Q1 9:43
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+4
74.0%
Deion Hankins run for 4 yds to the LAM 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:17
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
74.2%
Ismail Mahdi run for 3 yds to the LAM 39Similar
Q1 8:43
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+13
74.4%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Kole Wilson for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:33
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
74.5%
Ismail Mahdi run for 4 yds to the LAM 22Similar
Q1 8:06
2ND & 6
OPP 22
+16
74.5%
Ismail Mahdi run for 16 yds to the LAM 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
74.6%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Chris Dawn Jr.Similar
Q1 7:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
77.7%
Ismail Mahdi 1 Yd Run (David Nunez Pass to Konner Fox for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LAMDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 2:0423% → 22%
Q1 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
76.6%
Robert Coleman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:51
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
76.7%
Robert Coleman run for 6 yds to the LAM 31Similar
Q1 6:26
2ND & 20
OWN 15
+3
76.9%
Khalan Griffin run for 3 yds to the LAM 18Similar
Q1 5:42
3RD & 17
OWN 18
+5
77.2%
Robert Coleman pass complete to Khalan GriffinSimilar
Q1 4:55
4TH & 12
OWN 23
+17
77.6%
Chase Leon punt for 37 yds , Kole Wilson returns for 17 yds to the LAM 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 5FUMBLE
3 plays · 30 yds · 0:0979% → 79%
Q1 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
78.5%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:16
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+13
78.5%
Jaylen Jenkins run for 11 yds to the LAM 13 run for 13 yds to the LAM 13 Jaylen Jenkins fumbled, forced by Antorius Hambric Jr., recovered by LAM Antorius Hambric Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LAMDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 2:4023% → 22%
Q1 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+7
77.4%
Damien Moore run for 7 yds to the LAM 20Similar
Q1 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
77.6%
Robert Coleman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:15
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-6
77.7%
Robert Coleman sacked by Tunmise Adeleye for a loss of 6 yards to the LAM 30Similar
Q1 2:29
3RD & 16
OWN 30
-7
77.6%
Robert Coleman sacked for a loss of 7 yards to the LAM 23Similar
Q1 1:22
4TH & 28
OWN 18
0
78.0%
Chase Leon punt for 56 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 7FG
11 plays · 46 yds · 3:3179% → 83%
Q1 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
79.1%
Ismail Mahdi run for 1 yd to the TXST 32Similar
Q1 1:00
2ND & 9
OWN 32
0
79.1%
RJ Martinez pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:56
3RD & 9
OWN 32
0
78.9%
RJ Martinez pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
79.9%
Ismail Mahdi run for no gain to the TXST 47Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+6
80.0%
RJ Martinez pass complete to Jaden WilliamsSimilar
Q2 14:54
3RD & 4
OPP 47
+7
79.8%
RJ Martinez pass complete to Kole Wilson for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:25
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+12
80.5%
RJ Martinez pass complete to Joey Hobert for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
80.7%
RJ Martinez pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:55
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+3
80.7%
RJ Martinez pass complete to Jaden WilliamsSimilar
Q2 13:23
3RD & 7
OPP 25
+2
80.6%
RJ Martinez pass complete to Jaden WilliamsSimilar
Q2 12:44
4TH & 5
OPP 23
+40
83.0%
Mason Shipley 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LAMDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · -10 yds · 1:0817% → 16%
Q2 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
82.6%
Robert Coleman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:35
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
82.3%
Robert Coleman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:08
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-15
82.9%
Robert Coleman sacked by Ben Bell for a loss of 15 yards to the LAM 15Similar
Q2 11:32
4TH & 20
OWN 15
+13
83.8%
Chase Leon punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LAM 45 , Kole Wilson returns for 13 yds to the LAM 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 9MISSED FG
10 plays · 41 yds · 3:1585% → 86%
Q2 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
85.0%
Ismail Mahdi run for 1 yd to the TXST 33Similar
Q2 10:44
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+15
85.2%
RJ Martinez run for 15 yds to the TXST 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
85.7%
RJ Martinez pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:34
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+6
85.7%
Ismail Mahdi run for 6 yds to the LAM 46Similar
Q2 10:09
3RD & 4
OPP 46
+9
85.7%
RJ Martinez pass complete to Titus Lyons for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:53
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+25
86.1%
Ismail Mahdi run for 25 yds to the LAM 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:14
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-6
86.4%
RJ Martinez sacked for a loss of 6 yards to the LAM 18Similar
Q2 8:33
2ND & 16
OPP 18
-4
86.9%
RJ Martinez pass complete to Jaden WilliamsSimilar
Q2 7:55
3RD & 20
OPP 22
0
86.1%
RJ Martinez pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:50
4TH & 25
OPP 27
+44
85.5%
Mason Shipley 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LAMDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 2:1616% → 12%
Q2 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
84.5%
Robert Coleman pass complete to Sevonne RheaSimilar
Q2 7:12
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+4
84.3%
Damien Moore run for 4 yds to the LAM 26Similar
Q2 6:30
3RD & 11
OWN 26
-11
87.2%
Robert Coleman sacked by Trez Moore for a loss of 11 yards to the LAM 15Similar
Q2 6:00
3RD & 6
OWN 31
+1
88.0%
Robert Coleman pass complete to Khalan GriffinSimilar
Q2 5:21
4TH & 5
OWN 32
0
87.7%
Chase Leon punt for 51 yds , Kole Wilson returns for no gain to the TXST 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 11DOWNS
17 plays · 80 yds · 4:4387% → 90%
Q2 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+13
87.2%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Jaden Williams for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
87.3%
Ismail Mahdi run for 5 yds to the TXST 35Similar
Q2 4:32
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+11
87.4%
Ismail Mahdi run for 11 yds to the TXST 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
88.0%
Ismail Mahdi run for no gain to the TXST 46Similar
Q2 3:29
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+9
88.2%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Konner FoxSimilar
Q2 3:09
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+6
88.0%
Lincoln Pare run for 6 yds to the LAM 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:49
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
88.3%
Jordan McCloud run for 3 yds to the LAM 36Similar
Q2 2:11
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+12
88.7%
Lincoln Pare run for 12 yds to the LAM 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
90.6%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:48
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+13
90.8%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Kole Wilson for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
90.1%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:35
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+5
90.4%
Ismail Mahdi run for 5 yds to the LAM 6Similar
Q2 0:51
3RD & 5
OPP 6
+3
88.3%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Konner FoxSimilar
Q2 0:23
4TH & 2
OPP 3
0
89.6%
Ismail Mahdi run for no gain to the LAM 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LAMDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+1
92.3%
Khalan Griffin run for 1 yd to the LAM 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LAMDrive 13TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:1612% → 21%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
88.2%
Robert Coleman pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:47
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+19
88.5%
Khalan Griffin run for 19 yds to the LAM 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:24
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
87.6%
Khalan Griffin run for 5 yds to the LAM 49Similar
Q3 13:43
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
86.5%
Robert Coleman pass incomplete to Izaha JonesSimilar
Q3 13:37
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
78.6%
Damien Moore run for 18 yds for a TD (Chris Esqueda KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 14FG
14 plays · 36 yds · 3:0283% → 86%
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
82.6%
Ismail Mahdi run for 9 yds to the TXST 44Similar
Q3 13:04
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+20
83.6%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to for 20 yds fumbled, recovered by LAMSimilar
Q3 12:58
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+3
82.9%
Lincoln Pare run for 3 yds to the TXST 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
83.7%
Lincoln Pare run for 1 yd to the TXST 46Similar
Q3 12:08
2ND & 11
OWN 46
+5
83.6%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Joey HobertSimilar
Q3 11:29
3RD & 6
OPP 49
+6
83.4%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Joey Hobert for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:14
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+12
84.3%
Ismail Mahdi run for 12 yds to the LAM 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:57
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
83.4%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:52
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+2
83.5%
Ismail Mahdi run for 2 yds to the LAM 29Similar
Q3 10:33
3RD & 8
OPP 29
0
83.1%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:28
4TH & 8
OPP 29
+46
86.4%
Mason Shipley 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LAMDrive 15FG
16 plays · 64 yds · 7:2215% → 17%
Q3 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-15
85.4%
Robert Coleman sacked by Joshua Eaton for a loss of 15 yards to the LAM 10Similar
Q3 9:23
2ND & 30
OWN 5
+11
86.6%
Khalan Griffin run for 11 yds to the LAM 16Similar
Q3 8:27
3RD & 14
OWN 21
0
86.5%
Robert Coleman sacked by Terry Webb for 0 yards to the LAM 21Similar
Q3 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
85.0%
Khalan Griffin run for 1 yd to the LAM 37Similar
Q3 7:40
2ND & 9
OWN 37
0
85.3%
Khalan Griffin run for no gain to the LAM 37Similar
Q3 6:48
3RD & 9
OWN 37
+41
86.2%
Robert Coleman pass complete to Kyndon Fuselier for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+7
82.9%
Robert Coleman pass complete to Kyndon FuselierSimilar
Q3 5:42
2ND & 3
OPP 15
+2
83.0%
Khalan Griffin run for 2 yds to the TXST 13Similar
Q3 5:19
3RD & 6
OPP 18
+5
83.3%
Khalan Griffin run for 5 yds to the TXST 13Similar
Q3 4:42
4TH & 1
OPP 13
+10
84.6%
Khalan Griffin run for 10 yds to the TXST 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
82.9%
Robert Coleman pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
83.3%
Khalan Griffin run for 1 yd to the TXST 4Similar
Q3 3:37
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
-7
85.1%
Robert Coleman sacked by Dominique Ratcliff for a loss of 7 yards to the TXST 11Similar
Q3 2:58
4TH & GOAL
OPP 11
+28
83.5%
Chris Esqueda 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 16INT
9 plays · 45 yds · 2:4088% → 90%
Q3 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
87.9%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Kole Wilson for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
88.3%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Beau SparksSimilar
Q3 2:18
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+4
88.7%
Ismail Mahdi run for 4 yds to the TXST 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
89.7%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
90.1%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Ismail MahdiSimilar
Q3 0:35
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+7
90.4%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Beau SparksSimilar
Q3 0:04
3RD & 3
OPP 30
0
90.1%
Jordan McCloud pass intercepted Codey Martin return for no gain to the LAM 16Similar
Q3 0:04
3RD & 3
OPP 30
0
90.1%
Jordan McCloud pass intercepted Codey Martin return for no gain to the LAM 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LAMDrive 17TD
6 plays · 84 yds · 1:1615% → 36%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
85.4%
Khalan Griffin run for 4 yds to the LAM 20Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 16
OWN 10
0
85.8%
Robert Coleman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:47
3RD & 16
OWN 10
+39
86.6%
Robert Coleman pass complete to Jayden Boyd for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
82.6%
Khalan Griffin run for 4 yds to the TXST 47Similar
Q4 13:55
2ND & 6
OPP 47
0
82.5%
Robert Coleman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:44
3RD & 6
OPP 47
+47
64.3%
Sevonne Rhea 47 Yd pass from Robert Coleman (Chris Esqueda Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 18TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:0571% → 96%
Q4 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
70.7%
Ismail Mahdi run for 2 yds to the TXST 27Similar
Q4 13:03
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
70.6%
Ismail Mahdi run for no gain to the TXST 27Similar
Q4 12:22
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+7
68.5%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Kole WilsonSimilar
Q4 11:49
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+2
68.3%
Lincoln Pare run for 2 yds to the TXST 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
71.7%
Lincoln Pare run for 2 yds to the TXST 38Similar
Q4 10:46
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+8
72.1%
Ismail Mahdi run for 8 yds to the TXST 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+19
73.8%
Ismail Mahdi run for 19 yds to the LAM 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:09
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
75.1%
Ismail Mahdi run for 2 yds to the LAM 37Similar
Q4 9:30
2ND & 12
OPP 37
+37
95.9%
Joey Hobert 37 Yd pass from Jordan McCloud (Mason Shipley Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LAMDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 2:0810% → 8%
Q4 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
90.2%
Damien Moore run for 1 yd to the LAM 26Similar
Q4 8:44
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+1
90.2%
Damien Moore run for 1 yd to the LAM 27Similar
Q4 8:08
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-7
91.0%
Robert Coleman sacked by Kalil Alexander for a loss of 7 yards to the LAM 20Similar
Q4 7:14
4TH & 15
OWN 20
+18
92.2%
Chase Leon punt for 45 yds , Kole Wilson returns for 18 yds to the LAM 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 20TD
4 plays · 47 yds · 1:3997% → 99%
Q4 7:08
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
96.8%
Ismail Mahdi run for 2 yds to the LAM 45Similar
Q4 6:36
2ND & 8
OPP 45
0
96.9%
Ismail Mahdi run for no gain to the LAM 45Similar
Q4 5:46
3RD & 8
OPP 45
+15
97.2%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Jaden Williams for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:29
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
99.2%
Joey Hobert 30 Yd pass from Jordan McCloud (Mason Shipley PAT failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LAMDrive 21TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 1:143% → 12%
Q4 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
97.5%
Robert Coleman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:23
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+21
97.5%
Robert Coleman pass complete to Izaha Jones for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+24
97.5%
Robert Coleman pass complete to Kyndon Fuselier for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:25
1ST & 15
OPP 35
0
97.2%
Robert Coleman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:21
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
96.9%
Robert Coleman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:16
2ND & 10
OPP 20
0
97.1%
Robert Coleman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
87.6%
Jayden Boyd 9 Yd pass from Robert Coleman (Chris Esqueda Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:3397% → 98%
Q4 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
96.8%
Ismail Mahdi run for 2 yds to the TXST 20Similar
Q4 3:11
2ND & 8
OWN 20
+1
97.2%
Ismail Mahdi run for 1 yd to the TXST 21Similar
Q4 2:31
3RD & 7
OWN 21
0
97.6%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:24
4TH & 12
OWN 16
0
97.6%
David Nunez punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Kyndon Fuselier at the TXST 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LAMDrive 23FG
16 plays · 34 yds · 1:408% → 11%
Q4 2:17
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-9
91.8%
Robert Coleman sacked for a loss of 9 yards to the LAM 47Similar
Q4 1:54
2ND & 19
OWN 47
0
93.6%
Robert Coleman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:41
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-2
91.6%
Robert Coleman pass complete to Xavier ColemanSimilar
Q4 1:13
2ND & 12
OPP 40
+4
91.8%
Robert Coleman pass complete to Xavier ColemanSimilar
Q4 1:09
3RD & 8
OPP 36
0
91.9%
Robert Coleman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:03
3RD & 3
OPP 31
0
93.1%
Robert Coleman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:00
4TH & 3
OPP 31
0
94.1%
Robert Coleman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+11
92.5%
Robert Coleman pass complete to Kyndon Fuselier for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
92.5%
Robert Coleman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
92.5%
Robert Coleman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:41
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
0
93.3%
Robert Coleman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:37
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+27
89.3%
Chris Esqueda 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LAMDrive 24DOWNS
8 plays · 9 yds · 0:2410% → 6%
Q4 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
90.0%
Robert Coleman pass complete to Kyndon Fuselier to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 0:13
2ND & 1
50
0
88.8%
Robert Coleman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:07
2ND & 16
OWN 35
0
93.1%
Robert Coleman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:02
3RD & 16
OWN 35
0
93.7%
Robert Coleman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 16
OWN 35
0
94.5%
Robert Coleman pass complete to Kyndon Fuselier to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 9:30
Joey Hobert 37 Yd pass from Jordan McCloud (Mason Shipley Kick)
+20.8
TD · Q4 13:44
Sevonne Rhea 47 Yd pass from Robert Coleman (Chris Esqueda Kick)
-18.2
TD · Q4 4:11
Jayden Boyd 9 Yd pass from Robert Coleman (Chris Esqueda Kick)
-9.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com