Try the model
UNT

North Texas 52 at South Alabama 38

USA
2024 · Week 1 · Aug 31, 2024 · Hancock Whitney Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · USA
modelUSA aheadUNT aheadconfidence bandkey playUSA scoreUNT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 8:19 · Sawyer Evans punt for 51 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the USA 17
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+49.0+24.50−24.5−49.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 71Home team on offense−2.2Pregame prior+11.3Score differential−1.5Garbage-time factor−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 13:23: Blair Conwright 25 Yd pass from Chandler Morris (Kali Nguma Kick) — UNT win probability +16.4 pts (now 48%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 5:15: Jamaal Pritchett 26 Yd pass from Gio Lopez (Laith Marjan Kick) — USA win probability +16.1 pts (now 61%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 3:36: Damon Ward Jr. 54 Yd pass from Chandler Morris (Kali Nguma Kick) — UNT win probability +19.3 pts (now 70%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 8:28: Ikaika Ragsdale run for 3 yds for a TD (Kali Nguma KICK) — UNT win probability +17.0 pts (now 95%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:39: Anthony Eager 23 Yd pass from Gio Lopez (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — USA win probability +16.5 pts (now 20%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USA made the numbers' call on 7 of 8UNT made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 5:58USA 4th & 9 at UNT 21, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 62.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.2%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.5%
    74% to make
    Punt
    60.8%−1.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 2:08UNT 4th & 7 at USA 28, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 37.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.1%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.2%
    60% to make
    Punt
    34.9%−2.3
    average punt
  3. Q2 9:39USA 4th & 14 at UNT 14, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.9%−1.5
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.4%
    84% to make
    Punt
    54.4%−5.0
    average punt
  4. Q2 8:19UNT 4th & 7 at UNT 32, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.3%−0.9
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:25UNT 4th & 1 at USA 1, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.6%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    31.2%−2.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    24.7%−8.9
    average punt
  6. Q3 14:10USA 4th & 10 at USA 25, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.8%−2.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.0%
    average punt
  7. Q3 12:30USA 4th & 8 at USA 27, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.2%−2.4
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.6%
    average punt
  8. Q3 10:14USA 4th & 1 at UNT 38, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 42.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    42.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    37.7%−4.5
    38% to make
    Punt
    37.7%−4.5
    average punt
  9. Q3 2:40USA 4th & 7 at USA 28, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.6%−1.7
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.2%
    average punt
  10. Q4 15:00USA 4th & 2 at midfield, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.9%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    18.0%−1.9
    average punt
  11. Q4 2:53UNT 4th & 3 at USA 12, up 11
    Close callKicked a field goal · 93.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.0%
    50% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.7%−0.3
    86% to make
    Punt
    90.1%−2.9
    average punt
  12. Q4 1:17USA 4th & 15 at UNT 35, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 3.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.8%−0.8
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    3.6%
    45% to make
    Punt
    2.6%−1.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USA made the numbers' call on 2 of 5UNT made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 9:37UNT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:55USA Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:43UNT Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 4:24USA Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    69.3%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    69.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 13:23UNT Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 10:14UNT Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 5:15USA Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 3:36UNT Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 13:31USA Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    29.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    28.7%−0.4
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 8:28UNT Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 4:39USA Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    11.3%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    11.0%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNTDrive 1TD
18 plays · 79 yds · 5:1832% → 35%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
67.7%
Ikaika Ragsdale run for 2 yds to the UNT 23Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+17
67.7%
Chandler Morris pass complete to DT Sheffield for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
67.7%
Ikaika Ragsdale run for 2 yds to the UNT 42Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 8
OWN 42
0
67.7%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:55
3RD & 8
OWN 42
+10
67.7%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Wyatt Young for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
67.7%
Juwaun Price run for 4 yds to the USA 44Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+9
67.7%
Chandler Morris pass complete to DT Sheffield for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
67.7%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+17
67.7%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Ikaika Ragsdale for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+5
67.7%
Ikaika Ragsdale run for 5 yds to the USA 13Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 5
OPP 13
+4
67.7%
Juwaun Price run for 4 yds to the USA 9Similar
Q1 14:55
3RD & 1
OPP 9
-5
67.7%
PENALTY UNT False Start (Conwright,Blair) 5 yards from USA09 to USA14. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 14:55
3RD & 6
OPP 14
+10
67.7%
Chandler Morris pass complete to DT Sheffield for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
67.7%
Juwaun Price run for 1 yd to the USA 3Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
67.7%
Ikaika Ragsdale run for 1 yd to the USA 2Similar
Q1 9:37
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
64.6%
Chandler Morris run for 2 yds for a TD (Kali Nguma KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 2FG
10 plays · 57 yds · 3:3465% → 65%
Q1 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+7
65.1%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Jamaal PritchettSimilar
Q1 9:32
2ND & 3
OWN 29
+3
65.3%
Braylon McReynolds run for 3 yds to the USA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
65.2%
Kentrel Bullock run for 5 yds to the USA 37Similar
Q1 9:32
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+41
65.4%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Jeremiah Webb for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:32
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+9
65.9%
Gio Lopez run for 9 yds to the UNT 13Similar
Q1 9:32
2ND & 1
OPP 13
0
65.9%
Gio Lopez pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:32
3RD & 1
OPP 13
-15
65.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun Lopez,Gio rush left for 12 yards gain to the UNT01 (Scott,Zhaiylen) PENALTY USA Personal Foul (Sandgren,Shamar) 15 yards from UNT13 to UNT28. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:32
3RD & 16
OPP 28
+7
65.4%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Jamaal PritchettSimilar
Q1 5:58
4TH & 9
OPP 21
+39
65.2%
Laith Marjan 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 3MISSED FG
11 plays · 47 yds · 3:4535% → 37%
Q1 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
65.0%
Ikaika Ragsdale run for 1 yd to the UNT 26Similar
Q1 5:53
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+9
65.0%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Wyatt Young for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
64.7%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:53
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+7
64.8%
Ikaika Ragsdale run for 7 yds to the UNT 42Similar
Q1 5:53
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+14
64.4%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Damon Ward Jr. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:53
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+13
64.1%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Damon Ward Jr. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:53
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
63.9%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Oscar HammondSimilar
Q1 5:53
2ND & 6
OPP 27
+1
63.7%
Juwaun Price run for 1 yd to the USA 28Similar
Q1 5:53
3RD & 7
OPP 28
0
64.3%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:08
4TH & 7
OPP 28
+46
63.2%
Kali Nguma 46 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 4TD
7 plays · 72 yds · 2:1364% → 68%
Q1 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
63.7%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Shamar SandgrenSimilar
Q1 2:08
2ND & 4
OWN 34
+8
64.4%
Gio Lopez run for 8 yds to the USA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+20
64.7%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:08
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+22
65.1%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:08
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+6
65.5%
Kentrel Bullock run for 6 yds to the UNT 10Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 4
OPP 10
+2
65.2%
Fluff Bothwell run for 2 yds to the UNT 8Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 2
OPP 8
+8
67.8%
Gio Lopez run for 8 yds for a TD (Laith Marjan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 5TD
10 plays · 79 yds · 2:0633% → 41%
Q2 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
66.9%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:49
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+16
67.0%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Damon Ward Jr. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
66.3%
Chandler Morris run for 6 yds to the UNT 43Similar
Q2 14:49
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+15
65.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun Morris,Chandler pass incomplete short middle to Young,Wyatt thrown to UNT50 PENALTY USA UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Scruggs,Jordan) 15 yards from UNT43 to USA42, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:49
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+13
65.2%
Damashja Harris run for 13 yds to the USA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:49
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
64.5%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:49
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+26
64.8%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Jeremiah Aaron for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
59.1%
Damon Ward Jr. 3 Yd pass from Chandler Morris (Kali Nguma Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 6FG
10 plays · 61 yds · 3:0461% → 63%
Q2 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
61.2%
Gio Lopez pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:43
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+11
61.1%
Gio Lopez run for 11 yds to the USA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
61.9%
Braylon McReynolds run for 2 yds to the USA 38Similar
Q2 12:43
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+52
62.1%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
64.0%
Gio Lopez pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
64.0%
Kentrel Bullock run for 1 yd to the UNT 11Similar
Q2 12:43
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
-3
63.2%
Gio Lopez sacked by Roderick Brown for a loss of 3 yards to the UNT 14Similar
Q2 9:39
4TH & GOAL
OPP 14
+32
62.7%
Laith Marjan 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:1439% → 37%
Q2 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
61.3%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Dalton CarnesSimilar
Q2 9:33
2ND & 9
OWN 30
+2
61.4%
Chandler Morris run for 2 yds to the UNT 32Similar
Q2 9:33
3RD & 7
OWN 32
0
61.9%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:19
4TH & 7
OWN 32
0
62.6%
Sawyer Evans punt for 51 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the USA 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 8TD
14 plays · 83 yds · 3:5560% → 67%
Q2 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+1
59.7%
Gio Lopez run for 1 yd to the USA 18Similar
Q2 8:19
2ND & 9
OWN 18
+15
59.5%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Jeremiah Webb for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
59.9%
Gio Lopez pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:19
2ND & 10
OWN 33
0
59.7%
Gio Lopez pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:19
3RD & 10
OWN 33
+10
58.7%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
61.6%
Gio Lopez pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:19
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+8
60.7%
Gio Lopez run for 8 yds to the UNT 49Similar
Q2 8:19
3RD & 2
OPP 49
+3
61.5%
Bishop Davenport run for 3 yds to the UNT 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:19
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
62.4%
Gio Lopez pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:19
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+5
62.1%
Gio Lopez run for 5 yds to the UNT 41Similar
Q2 8:19
3RD & 5
OPP 41
+28
61.9%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Fluff Bothwell for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:24
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
66.9%
Fluff Bothwell run for 13 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 9DOWNS
17 plays · 64 yds · 3:4632% → 25%
Q2 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
68.1%
Ikaika Ragsdale run for 2 yds to the UNT 37Similar
Q2 4:11
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+11
67.9%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Damon Ward Jr. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
66.3%
Ikaika Ragsdale run for 8 yds to the USA 44Similar
Q2 4:11
2ND & 2
OPP 44
+9
65.4%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Damon Ward Jr. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:11
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+7
64.8%
Chandler Morris pass complete to DT SheffieldSimilar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 3
OPP 28
+11
66.4%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Oscar Hammond for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+9
66.4%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Jeremiah AaronSimilar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 1
OPP 8
+2
66.4%
Juwaun Price run for 2 yds to the USA 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-10
66.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun Morris,Chandler pass complete short left to Aaron,Jeremiah caught at USA00, for 6 yards to the USA00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 00:58 PENALTY UNT Holding (Mercer,Tyler) 10 yards from USA06 to USA16. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 16
+10
66.7%
Chandler Morris pass complete to DT SheffieldSimilar
Q2 0:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
66.2%
Ikaika Ragsdale run for 3 yds to the USA 3Similar
Q2 0:33
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
71.6%
Ikaika Ragsdale run for 2 yds to the USA 1Similar
Q2 0:25
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
75.0%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 10END OF HALF
1 play · 9 yds · 0:0070% → 70%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+9
70.0%
Braylon McReynolds run for 9 yds to the USA 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:5071% → 69%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
71.3%
Braylon McReynolds run for no gain to the USA 25Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
71.0%
Gio Lopez pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
70.0%
Gio Lopez pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:10
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+6
69.2%
Jack Martin punt for 47 yds , DT Sheffield returns for 6 yds to the UNT 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 12TD
4 plays · 66 yds · 0:4731% → 48%
Q3 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
68.6%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Ikaika RagsdaleSimilar
Q3 14:10
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+15
68.6%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Damon Ward Jr. for a 1ST down South Alabama Penalty, Roughing The Passer (Blayne Myrick) to the USA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:23
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
52.2%
Blair Conwright 25 Yd pass from Chandler Morris (Kali Nguma Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:5358% → 55%
Q3 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
58.1%
Fluff Bothwell run for 2 yds to the USA 27Similar
Q3 13:23
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
58.2%
Gio Lopez pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:23
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
56.5%
Gio Lopez pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:30
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+18
55.3%
Jack Martin punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard line , DT Sheffield returns for 18 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 14TD
5 plays · 50 yds · 2:1648% → 64%
Q3 12:30
1ST & 10
50
+12
52.1%
Chandler Morris pass complete to DT Sheffield for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+6
52.1%
Damashja Harris run for 6 yds to the USA 32Similar
Q3 12:30
2ND & 4
OPP 32
-5
50.6%
Wyatt Young pass complete to Damon Ward Jr. for a 1ST down North Texas Penalty, False Start (Oscar Hammond) to the USA 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
50.5%
Juwaun Price run for 5 yds to the USA 1Similar
Q3 10:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
36.3%
Chandler Morris run for 1 yd for a TD (Kali Nguma KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 15TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:5940% → 61%
Q3 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
39.8%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Devin VoisinSimilar
Q3 10:14
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-5
40.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun Bullock,Kentrel rush right for 3 yards gain to the USA31 (Hill,Jayden) PENALTY USA Illegal Formation 5 yards from USA28 to USA23. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:14
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+18
39.5%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+12
42.0%
Kentrel Bullock run for 12 yds to the UNT 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:14
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
43.5%
Kentrel Bullock run for 6 yds to the UNT 41Similar
Q3 10:14
2ND & 4
OPP 41
-10
43.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun Lopez,Gio pass complete short left to Thomas,Trent caught at UNT37, for 6 yards to the UNT35 (Anderson,Jayven) PENALTY USA Holding (Preciado,Malachi) 10 yards from UNT41 to USA49. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:14
2ND & 14
OWN 49
+11
41.1%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Kentrel BullockSimilar
Q3 10:14
3RD & 3
OPP 40
+2
43.3%
Gio Lopez run for 2 yds to the UNT 38Similar
Q3 10:14
4TH & 1
OPP 38
+7
41.7%
Fluff Bothwell run for 7 yds to the UNT 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:14
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
45.0%
Fluff Bothwell run for 5 yds to the UNT 26Similar
Q3 5:15
2ND & 5
OPP 26
+26
61.2%
Jamaal Pritchett 26 Yd pass from Gio Lopez (Laith Marjan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 16TD
5 plays · 69 yds · 1:3550% → 70%
Q3 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
49.9%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Juwaun PriceSimilar
Q3 5:11
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+4
49.8%
Juwaun Price run for 4 yds to the UNT 37Similar
Q3 5:11
3RD & 4
OWN 37
+9
49.4%
Chandler Morris pass complete to DT Sheffield for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+54
30.1%
Damon Ward Jr. 54 Yd pass from Chandler Morris (Kali Nguma Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 17PUNT TD
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:5632% → 18%
Q3 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
31.8%
Braylon McReynolds run for 3 yds to the USA 28Similar
Q3 3:36
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
31.9%
Gio Lopez pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:36
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
30.9%
Gio Lopez pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:40
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
17.8%
Jack Martin punt blocked by Juwaun Price blocked by Juwaun Price for a TD (Kali Nguma KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 18TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:0918% → 28%
Q3 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
18.2%
Gio Lopez pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:40
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
17.9%
PENALTY USA False Start (Preciado,Malachi) 5 yards from USA25 to USA20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:40
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+7
17.9%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Jeremiah WebbSimilar
Q3 2:40
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+15
17.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun Lopez,Gio pass incomplete short right to Bullock,Kentrel thrown to USA46 PENALTY UNT Pass Interference (Shipley,Jake) 15 yards from USA27 to USA42, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
19.8%
Braylon McReynolds run for 5 yds to the USA 47Similar
Q3 2:40
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+2
20.0%
Braylon McReynolds run for 2 yds to the USA 49Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 3
OWN 49
+1
17.3%
Fluff Bothwell run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 2
50
+19
17.1%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Devin Voisin to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down North Texas Penalty, Defensive Offside (Blair Conwright) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+7
18.5%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Braylon McReynoldsSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 24
+3
18.8%
Braylon McReynolds run for 3 yds to the UNT 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:31
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
28.4%
Shamar Sandgren 21 Yd pass from Gio Lopez (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 19TD
13 plays · 76 yds · 4:5775% → 95%
Q4 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+21
24.9%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Damon Ward Jr. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
22.2%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Ikaika RagsdaleSimilar
Q4 13:25
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+5
22.4%
Ikaika Ragsdale run for 5 yds to the USA 48Similar
Q4 13:25
3RD & 3
OPP 48
+5
22.7%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Kyle Koch for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
21.7%
Damashja Harris run for 3 yds to the USA 40Similar
Q4 13:25
2ND & 7
OPP 40
-5
21.9%
PENALTY UNT False Start (Peterson,Landon) 5 yards from USA40 to USA45. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:25
2ND & 12
OPP 45
+20
22.1%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Jeremiah Aaron for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
21.0%
Chandler Morris run for 6 yds to the USA 19Similar
Q4 13:25
2ND & 4
OPP 19
+1
21.0%
Damashja Harris run for 1 yd to the USA 18Similar
Q4 13:25
3RD & 3
OPP 18
+15
21.8%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Damon Ward Jr. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
4.7%
Ikaika Ragsdale run for 3 yds for a TD (Kali Nguma KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 20TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 3:493% → 20%
Q4 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
2.9%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Devin Voisin for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
2.9%
Gio Lopez pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:28
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+4
2.9%
Gio Lopez run for 4 yds to the USA 39Similar
Q4 8:28
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+9
3.0%
Gio Lopez run for 9 yds to the USA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
3.1%
Gio Lopez run for 7 yds to the UNT 45Similar
Q4 8:28
2ND & 3
OPP 45
+10
3.9%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Shamar Sandgren for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:28
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
3.5%
South Alabama Penalty, Offensive Holding (Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 8:28
2ND & 17
OPP 42
+24
3.2%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:28
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
3.7%
Gio Lopez pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:28
2ND & 10
OPP 18
-5
3.5%
PENALTY USA False Start (Thomas-Jones,DJ) 5 yards from UNT18 to UNT23. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:39
2ND & 15
OPP 23
+23
20.0%
Anthony Eager 23 Yd pass from Gio Lopez (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 21FG
12 plays · 28 yds · 1:4693% → 99%
Q4 4:39
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
6.7%
Ikaika Ragsdale run for 3 yds to the USA 37Similar
Q4 4:35
2ND & 7
OPP 37
0
5.3%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:35
3RD & 7
OPP 37
+18
5.8%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Damon Ward Jr. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:35
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
5.3%
Damashja Harris run for 2 yds to the USA 17Similar
Q4 3:40
2ND & 8
OPP 17
+1
4.7%
Ikaika Ragsdale run for 1 yd to the USA 16Similar
Q4 3:35
3RD & 7
OPP 16
+4
4.7%
Damashja Harris run for 4 yds to the USA 12Similar
Q4 2:53
4TH & 3
OPP 12
+30
1.5%
Kali Nguma 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 22DOWNS
14 plays · 40 yds · 1:261% → 1%
Q4 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
1.1%
Gio Lopez pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:43
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+11
1.1%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
1.1%
Gio Lopez pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:43
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+12
1.1%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Devin Voisin for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
1.0%
Gio Lopez pass complete to DJ Thomas-JonesSimilar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 4
OPP 46
0
1.1%
Gio Lopez pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 4
OPP 46
+16
1.0%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Devin Voisin for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
1.2%
Gio Lopez pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 10
OPP 30
-5
1.1%
PENALTY USA False Start (Carney,Malachi) 5 yards from UNT30 to UNT35. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 15
OPP 35
0
1.2%
Gio Lopez pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 15
OPP 35
0
1.1%
Gio Lopez pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:17
4TH & 15
OPP 35
0
1.0%
Gio Lopez pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 23END OF GAME
2 plays · -6 yds · 1:1799% → 99%
Q4 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-3
0.7%
Kneel down by North Texas at UNT32 for loss of 3 yards.Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 13
OWN 32
-3
0.6%
Kneel down by North Texas at UNT29 for loss of 3 yards.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 3:36
Damon Ward Jr. 54 Yd pass from Chandler Morris (Kali Nguma Kick)
-19.3
TD · Q4 8:28
Ikaika Ragsdale run for 3 yds for a TD (Kali Nguma KICK)
-17
TD · Q4 4:39
Anthony Eager 23 Yd pass from Gio Lopez (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
+16.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com