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USU

Utah State 37 at Colorado State 42

CSU
2024 · Week 14 · Nov 29, 2024 · Canvas Stadium
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Win probability · CSU
modelCSU aheadUSU aheadconfidence bandkey playCSU scoreUSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 1:10 · Stephen Kotsanlee punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Kobe Johnson at the CSU 46
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+52.0+26.00−26.0−52.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 77Home team on offense−9.8Score differential−5.4Pregame prior+10.1Garbage-time factor−2.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 2:09: Bryson Barnes pass complete to Otto Tia for 2 yds for a TD (Tanner Cragun KICK) — USU win probability +4.6 pts (now 42%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 7:55: Tanner Cragun 26 yd FG GOOD — USU win probability +2.0 pts (now 50%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:19: Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Dane Olson for 28 yds for a TD (Jordan Noyes KICK) — CSU win probability +12.5 pts (now 60%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 1:07: Bryson Barnes pass complete to Otto Tia for 14 yds for a TD (Tanner Cragun KICK) — USU win probability +17.1 pts (now 75%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 0:49: Jaiden Francois 40 Yd Interception Return (Tanner Cragun Kick) — USU win probability +8.3 pts (now 83%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 10USU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 11:53CSU 4th & 13 at USU 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.0%−0.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    65.0%−<0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    65.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:43USU 4th & 3 at CSU 27, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 35.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.2%−0.1
    62% to make
    Punt
    34.7%−0.6
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:19CSU 4th & 5 at CSU 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.4%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:27CSU 4th & 3 at CSU 12, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.3%−<0.1
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:44CSU 4th & 4 at USU 30, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 52.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    53.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    52.6%−0.4
    56% to make
    Punt
    51.9%−1.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:28CSU 4th & 6 at USU 15, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 51.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.5%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    50.8%
    83% to make
    Punt
    47.2%−3.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:55USU 4th & 5 at CSU 9, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 50.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.5%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    50.5%
    89% to make
    Punt
    47.5%−3.0
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:44CSU 4th & 15 at USU 22, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 40.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.8%−1.3
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.1%
    72% to make
    Punt
    36.7%−3.4
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:10USU 4th & 19 at USU 16, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.4%−3.1
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 14:32USU 4th & 21 at USU 14, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.1%−4.3
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.4%
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:56CSU 4th & 4 at USU 22, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 55.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.0%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.6%−0.4
    72% to make
    Punt
    45.9%−9.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:51USU 4th & 9 at USU 36, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.3%−2.2
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.5%
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:18CSU 4th & 4 at CSU 16, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.9%−0.4
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.3%
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:23CSU 4th & 9 at CSU 27, down 18
    Close callWent for it · 4.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.0%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.2%
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:57USU 4th & 10 at USU 25, up 18
    Close callWent for it · 98.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.4%−0.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    98.7%
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:37CSU 4th & 2 at USU 26, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    1.9%−<0.1
    64% to make
    Punt
    1.2%−0.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1USU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 6:17USU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    37.8%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    37.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:09USU Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:19CSU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 1:07USU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 0:49USU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CSUDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 34 yds · 3:0769% → 69%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
69.4%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi run for 3 yds to the CSU 28Similar
Q1 14:22
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+10
69.4%
Avery Morrow run for 10 yds to the CSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:48
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+15
69.3%
Utah State Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Gabriel Iniguez Jr.) to the USU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:31
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
69.4%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:29
2ND & 10
OPP 38
-1
69.4%
Justin Marshall run for a loss of 1 yard to the USU 39Similar
Q1 12:53
3RD & 11
OPP 39
+3
69.3%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Donovan Ollie for 3 yds to the USU 36Similar
Q1 12:15
4TH & 8
OPP 36
-5
69.1%
Colorado State Penalty, False Start (Saveyon Henderson) to the USU 41Similar
Q1 11:53
4TH & 13
OPP 41
0
68.9%
Paddy Turner punt for 35 yds, downed at the USU 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 2MISSED FG
6 plays · 67 yds · 2:0231% → 32%
Q1 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+9
69.0%
Rahsul Faison run for 9 yds to the USU 15Similar
Q1 11:24
2ND & 1
OWN 15
+51
68.9%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Otto Tia for 51 yds to the CSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:24
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+8
68.5%
Rahsul Faison run for 8 yds to the CSU 26Similar
Q1 11:24
2ND & 2
OPP 26
-1
68.5%
Bryson Barnes run for a loss of 1 yard to the CSU 27Similar
Q1 11:24
3RD & 3
OPP 27
0
68.6%
Bryson Barnes pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:43
4TH & 3
OPP 27
+44
68.5%
Tanner Cragun 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2469% → 68%
Q1 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
68.8%
Avery Morrow run for 3 yds to the CSU 30Similar
Q1 9:43
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+2
68.8%
Avery Morrow run for 2 yds to the CSU 32Similar
Q1 9:43
3RD & 5
OWN 32
0
68.6%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:19
4TH & 5
OWN 32
+43
68.1%
Paddy Turner punt for 43 yds , Kahanu Davis returns for a loss of 1 yard to the USU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 4TD
6 plays · 76 yds · 2:0232% → 34%
Q1 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+13
68.3%
Rahsul Faison run for 13 yds to the USU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+35
68.1%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Grant Page for 35 yds to the CSU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:19
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+20
67.5%
Bryson Barnes run for 20 yds to the CSU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
67.5%
Rahsul Faison run for 2 yds to the CSU 6Similar
Q1 6:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
66.9%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Kyrese White for 5 yds to the CSU 1Similar
Q1 6:17
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
65.7%
Bryson Barnes 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:5066% → 65%
Q1 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 5
0
66.3%
Justin Marshall run for no gain to the CSU 5Similar
Q1 5:36
2ND & 10
OWN 5
+7
65.7%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Vince Brown II for 7 yds to the CSU 12Similar
Q1 5:01
3RD & 3
OWN 12
0
65.2%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Armani Winfield for no gain to the CSU 12Similar
Q1 4:27
4TH & 3
OWN 12
0
64.7%
Paddy Turner punt for 31 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 6TD
7 plays · 43 yds · 2:1336% → 42%
Q1 4:22
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+16
63.9%
Bryson Barnes run for 16 yds to the CSU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:50
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+20
63.5%
Bryson Barnes run for 20 yds to the CSU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
63.3%
Herschel Turner run for no gain to the CSU 7Similar
Q1 3:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
63.1%
(03:12) BARNES, Bryson pass to the right incomplete intended for TIA, Otto broken up by PHELPS, Dylan at the CSU0, clock 03:07. PENALTY Before the snap, CSU Illegal Substitution enforced half the distance from the goal, 4 yards from the CSU7 to the CSU3. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 3:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-95
63.1%
(03:09) FAISON, Rahsul rush up the middle for a loss of 95 yards to the CSU3 (GATKUOTH, Nuer), clock 03:01. PENALTY CSU Holding on PRENDERGAST, Will USU Personal Foul on MAILE, George , Offsetting penalties [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 2:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
62.8%
Rahsul Faison run for 1 yd to the CSU 2Similar
Q1 2:09
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
58.2%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Otto Tia for 2 yds for a TD (Tanner Cragun KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 7FG
14 plays · 60 yds · 6:4160% → 56%
Q1 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
59.5%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Jordan Ross for 13 yds to the CSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
59.6%
Avery Morrow run for 1 yd to the CSU 39Similar
Q1 1:02
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+7
59.0%
Avery Morrow run for 7 yds to the CSU 46Similar
Q1 0:18
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+7
58.5%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Peter Montini for 7 yds to the USU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
58.8%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+11
58.8%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Armani Winfield for 11 yds to the USU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:05
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-2
58.4%
Avery Morrow run for a loss of 2 yards to the USU 38Similar
Q2 13:25
2ND & 12
OPP 38
+8
57.2%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Jamari Person for 8 yds to the USU 30Similar
Q2 12:50
3RD & 4
OPP 30
0
56.9%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:44
4TH & 4
OPP 30
+11
56.2%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Jordan Ross for 11 yds to the USU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:59
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
57.0%
Avery Morrow run for 1 yd to the USU 18Similar
Q2 11:18
2ND & 9
OPP 18
0
56.5%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:13
3RD & 9
OPP 18
+4
55.4%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Donovan Ollie for 4 yds fumbled, forced by Chase Davis, recovered by CSU Donovan OllieSimilar
Q2 10:28
4TH & 6
OPP 15
+33
55.7%
Jordan Noyes 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 8FG
7 plays · 66 yds · 2:3044% → 50%
Q2 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
56.3%
Rahsul Faison run for 14 yds to the USU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
54.9%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Rahsul Faison for 5 yds to the USU 44Similar
Q2 9:42
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+42
54.8%
Bryson Barnes run for 42 yds to the CSU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:02
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
53.9%
Rahsul Faison run for 4 yds to the CSU 10Similar
Q2 8:31
2ND & 6
OPP 10
+1
53.5%
Rahsul Faison run for 1 yd to the CSU 9Similar
Q2 8:00
3RD & 5
OPP 9
0
52.0%
Bryson Barnes pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:55
4TH & 5
OPP 9
+26
50.0%
Tanner Cragun 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 9FG
16 plays · 56 yds · 6:0550% → 45%
Q2 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+9
50.2%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Dane Olson for 9 yds to the CSU 31Similar
Q2 7:20
2ND & 1
OWN 31
+4
50.7%
Avery Morrow run for 4 yds to the CSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-15
49.7%
(06:45) FOWLER-NICOLOSI, Brayden pass to the left complete for 8 yards to PERSON, Jamari caught at the CSU41 and advanced to the CSU43 (GRAHAM II, DJ), clock 06:40. PENALTY CSU Pass Interference on WINFIELD, Armani enforced 15 yards to the CSU20 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 6:25
1ST & 25
OWN 20
+4
48.8%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Armani Winfield for 4 yds to the CSU 24Similar
Q2 5:46
2ND & 21
OWN 24
+5
47.0%
Avery Morrow run for 5 yds to the CSU 29Similar
Q2 5:06
3RD & 16
OWN 29
+15
45.6%
Utah State Penalty, Personal Foul (D.J. Graham II) to the USU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:51
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
48.3%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Jamari Person for 9 yds to the USU 40Similar
Q2 4:14
2ND & 1
OPP 40
+1
47.8%
Avery Morrow run for 1 yd to the USU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
47.2%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Vince Brown II for 2 yds to the USU 37Similar
Q2 2:56
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+20
46.6%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Jamari Person for 20 yds to the USU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:13
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
47.0%
Justin Marshall run for no gain to the USU 17Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 10
OPP 17
-5
46.1%
Colorado State Penalty, False Start (Lavon Brown) to the USU 22Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 15
OPP 22
0
45.5%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:48
3RD & 15
OPP 22
0
43.4%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:44
4TH & 15
OPP 22
+40
44.6%
Jordan Noyes 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · -9 yds · 0:3454% → 53%
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
46.3%
Rahsul Faison run for 1 yd to the USU 26Similar
Q2 1:20
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
46.2%
Bryson Barnes pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:18
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-10
47.0%
Bryson Barnes sacked by Will Prendergast and Gabe Kirschke for a loss of 10 yards to the USU 16Similar
Q2 1:10
4TH & 19
OWN 16
0
47.3%
Stephen Kotsanlee punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Kobe Johnson at the CSU 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 11TD
9 plays · 54 yds · 0:4646% → 60%
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
45.7%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:02
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+19
45.0%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Armani Winfield for 19 yds to the USU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-10
48.2%
(00:58) MORROW, Avery rush to the left for a gain of 11 yards to the USU24 (GRAHAM II, DJ;LARSEN, Ike), clock 00:54. PENALTY CSU Holding on MOSS, Drew enforced 10 yards from the USU35 to the USU45 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:47
1ST & 20
OPP 45
-10
45.8%
Colorado State Penalty, Offensive Holding (Avery Morrow) to the USU 48Similar
Q2 0:43
2ND & 23
OPP 48
+5
45.4%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Jordan Ross for 5 yds to the USU 43Similar
Q2 0:39
3RD & 18
OPP 43
+15
44.7%
(00:39) FOWLER-NICOLOSI, Brayden sacked for a loss of 9 yards at the CSU48 (SLONE, Cian), clock 00:32. PENALTY USU Personal Foul on DEAN, Marlin enforced 15 yards from the USU43 to the USU28 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
47.6%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:31
2ND & 10
OPP 28
0
47.4%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:19
3RD & 10
OPP 28
+28
59.9%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Dane Olson for 28 yds for a TD (Jordan Noyes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0044% → 44%
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-1
55.7%
(00:13) [NH] Kneel down by BARNES, Bryson at USU22 (team loss of 1), clock 00:08.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · -11 yds · 0:3044% → 42%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
56.5%
Rahsul Faison run for 3 yds to the USU 28Similar
Q3 14:39
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
56.1%
Bryson Barnes pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:36
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
57.3%
Bryson Barnes pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:32
4TH & 21
OWN 14
-2
58.9%
Stephen Kotsanlee punt for 47 yds , Kobe Johnson returns for a loss of 2 yards to the CSU 37Similar
Q3 14:30
4TH & 7
OWN 28
-14
58.4%
Utah State Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Teague Andersen) to the USU 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 14MISSED FG
7 plays · 41 yds · 3:2459% → 58%
Q3 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
58.7%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Vince Brown II for 5 yds to the CSU 42Similar
Q3 13:50
2ND & 5
OWN 42
-5
60.5%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Armani Winfield for a loss of 5 yards to the CSU 37Similar
Q3 13:01
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+35
56.1%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Dane Olson for 35 yds to the USU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
61.6%
Avery Morrow run for 4 yds to the USU 24Similar
Q3 11:41
2ND & 6
OPP 24
+2
61.5%
Avery Morrow run for 2 yds to the USU 22Similar
Q3 10:58
3RD & 4
OPP 22
0
59.6%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:56
4TH & 4
OPP 22
+40
57.6%
Jordan Noyes 40 Yard Field Goal MissedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 14 yds · 2:0145% → 45%
Q3 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+10
55.2%
Colorado State Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the USU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
54.3%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Rahsul Faison for 2 yds to the USU 37Similar
Q3 10:11
2ND & 8
OWN 37
-5
53.8%
Bryson Barnes sacked by Will Prendergast for a loss of 5 yards to the USU 32Similar
Q3 9:34
3RD & 13
OWN 32
+4
54.7%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Kyrese White for 4 yds to the USU 36Similar
Q3 8:51
4TH & 9
OWN 36
+44
54.8%
Stephen Kotsanlee punt for 44 yds , Armani Winfield returns for no gain to the CSU 10 , returns for no gain to the CSU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:2455% → 52%
Q3 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+3
54.7%
Avery Morrow run for 3 yds to the CSU 13Similar
Q3 8:01
2ND & 7
OWN 13
+3
54.2%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Armani Winfield for 3 yds to the CSU 16Similar
Q3 7:20
3RD & 4
OWN 16
0
52.5%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:18
4TH & 4
OWN 16
0
51.5%
Paddy Turner punt for 48 yds, downed at the USU 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 17TD
15 plays · 79 yds · 5:5948% → 75%
Q3 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
52.0%
Bryson Barnes run for 1 yd to the USU 22Similar
Q3 6:42
2ND & 9
OWN 22
+3
52.1%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Grant Page for 3 yds to the USU 25Similar
Q3 6:29
3RD & 6
OWN 25
+6
52.9%
Bryson Barnes run for 6 yds to the USU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
50.9%
Bryson Barnes run for 5 yds to the USU 36Similar
Q3 5:37
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+3
49.4%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Otto Tia for 3 yds to the USU 39Similar
Q3 5:09
3RD & 2
OWN 39
+11
48.3%
Bryson Barnes run for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:38
1ST & 10
50
+4
46.3%
Derrick Jameson run for 4 yds to the CSU 46Similar
Q3 3:56
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+7
46.0%
Derrick Jameson run for 7 yds to the CSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:40
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-2
45.7%
Bryson Barnes run for a loss of 2 yards to the CSU 41Similar
Q3 3:08
2ND & 12
OPP 41
+12
45.6%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Josh Sterzer for 12 yds to the CSU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:47
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
43.4%
Grant Page run for 4 yds to the CSU 25Similar
Q3 2:13
2ND & 6
OPP 25
+4
43.1%
Bryson Barnes run for 4 yds to the CSU 21Similar
Q3 1:54
3RD & 2
OPP 21
+5
44.6%
Bryson Barnes run for 5 yds to the CSU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:28
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
42.6%
Derrick Jameson run for 2 yds to the CSU 14Similar
Q3 1:07
2ND & 8
OPP 14
+14
25.5%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Otto Tia for 14 yds for a TD (Tanner Cragun KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 18INT TD
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q3 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-40
17.1%
Jaiden Francois 40 Yd Interception Return (Tanner Cragun Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 19TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:1917% → 11%
Q3 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+39
16.7%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Dane Olson for 39 yds to the USU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:10
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+9
13.2%
Justin Marshall run for 9 yds to the USU 27Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 27
-9
14.5%
Colorado State Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Armani Winfield) to the USU 36Similar
Q4 14:46
3RD & 10
OPP 36
+4
12.7%
Avery Morrow run for 4 yds to the USU 32Similar
Q4 14:17
4TH & 6
OPP 32
+15
12.1%
(14:17) FOWLER-NICOLOSI, Brayden pass deep up the middle incomplete intended for OLSON, Dane thrown to the USU5, clock 14:14. PENALTY USU Pass Interference on VINCENT, Jordan enforced 15 yards to the USU17 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 14:11
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
12.0%
Avery Morrow run for 5 yds to the USU 12Similar
Q4 13:30
2ND & 5
OPP 12
+12
10.8%
Vince Brown II 12 Yd pass from Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi (Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi Pass to Jamari Person for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 20FUMBLE
16 plays · 50 yds · 5:2093% → 96%
Q4 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
6.7%
Utah State Penalty, Offensive Holding (Teague Andersen) to the USU 21Similar
Q4 13:17
1ST & 14
OWN 21
+15
6.7%
Colorado State Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Chase Wilson) to the USU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
6.5%
Herschel Turner run for 5 yds to the USU 41Similar
Q4 12:38
2ND & 5
OWN 41
0
6.1%
Herschel Turner run for no gain to the USU 41Similar
Q4 12:16
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+9
6.0%
Bryson Barnes run for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:45
1ST & 10
50
+5
5.3%
Herschel Turner run for 5 yds to the CSU 45Similar
Q4 11:13
2ND & 5
OPP 45
-5
5.0%
Bryson Barnes run for a loss of 5 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 10:32
3RD & 10
50
-5
4.8%
Utah State Penalty, False Start (Bo Maile) to the USU 45Similar
Q4 10:26
3RD & 15
OWN 45
+15
4.7%
Bryson Barnes run for 15 yds to the CSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
4.4%
Herschel Turner run for 5 yds to the CSU 35Similar
Q4 9:35
2ND & 5
OPP 35
0
4.2%
Bryson Barnes pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:15
3RD & 5
OPP 35
+4
4.2%
Colorado State Penalty, Delay Of Game (TEAM) to the CSU 31Similar
Q4 9:10
3RD & 1
OPP 31
+6
4.2%
Herschel Turner run for 6 yds to the CSU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:54
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+8
4.0%
Bryson Barnes run for 8 yds to the CSU 17Similar
Q4 8:25
2ND & 2
OPP 17
-10
3.8%
(08:25) TURNER, Herschel rush up the middle for a gain of 1 yard to the CSU16 (HECTOR, Ayden;AGURS, Kenyon), clock 08:24. PENALTY USU Holding on BOWLES, Wyatt enforced 10 yards from the CSU17 to the CSU27 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 8:07
2ND & 12
OPP 27
+2
3.8%
Herschel Turner run for 2 yds to the CSU 26 Herschel Turner fumbled, recovered by CSU Buom Jock B. Jock return for 1 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 21TD
7 plays · 74 yds · 1:565% → 5%
Q4 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
5.2%
Avery Morrow run for 1 yd to the CSU 27Similar
Q4 7:31
2ND & 9
OWN 27
0
4.9%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:29
3RD & 9
OWN 27
0
4.8%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:23
4TH & 9
OWN 27
+29
4.8%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Dane Olson for 29 yds to the USU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:57
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
5.4%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Tommy Maher for 5 yds to the USU 39Similar
Q4 6:30
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+17
5.2%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Jamari Person for 17 yds to the USU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:03
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
4.9%
Jordan Ross 22 Yd pass from Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi (Jordan Noyes Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 22INT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:4797% → 98%
Q4 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+7
3.0%
Rahsul Faison run for 7 yds to the USU 18Similar
Q4 5:25
2ND & 3
OWN 18
+7
2.8%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Rahsul Faison for 7 yds to the USU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
2.3%
(04:53) FAISON, Rahsul rush to the right for no gain to the USU25 (JONES, Dom), out of bounds, clock 04:46. PENALTY USU Holding on BOWLES, Wyatt enforced 10 yards from the USU25 to the USU15 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 4:39
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+3
2.3%
Rahsul Faison run for 3 yds to the USU 18Similar
Q4 4:04
2ND & 17
OWN 18
-3
2.2%
Bryson Barnes pass intercepted Dominic Morris return for 3 yds to the USU 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 23TD
3 plays · 19 yds · 1:253% → 3%
Q4 3:57
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
3.3%
Avery Morrow run for 2 yds to the USU 17Similar
Q4 3:14
2ND & 8
OPP 17
+14
3.1%
Avery Morrow run for 14 yds to the USU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
3.1%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi 3 Yd Run (Jordan Noyes Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 24DOWNS
6 plays · 9 yds · 0:3598% → 99%
Q4 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
1.7%
Utah State Penalty, False Start (Rahsul Faison) to the USU 20Similar
Q4 2:32
1ST & 15
OWN 20
0
1.7%
Bryson Barnes pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:27
2ND & 15
OWN 20
0
1.8%
Bryson Barnes pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:19
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+5
1.8%
Bryson Barnes run for 5 yds to the USU 25Similar
Q4 1:57
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+9
1.3%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Otto Tia for 9 yds to the USU 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 25TD
8 plays · 34 yds · 0:192% → 2%
Q4 1:56
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+6
2.4%
Avery Morrow run for 6 yds to the USU 28Similar
Q4 1:51
2ND & 4
OPP 28
+2
2.4%
Avery Morrow run for 2 yds to the USU 26Similar
Q4 1:48
3RD & 2
OPP 26
-5
2.3%
Colorado State Penalty, False Start (TEAM) to the USU 31Similar
Q4 1:48
3RD & 7
OPP 31
+5
2.0%
Avery Morrow run for 5 yds to the USU 26Similar
Q4 1:37
4TH & 2
OPP 26
+26
1.8%
Vince Brown II 26 Yd pass from Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi (Jordan Noyes Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 26TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 1:1999% → 98%
Q4 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
1.0%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Grant Page for 6 yds to the USU 31Similar
Q4 1:15
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+6
1.0%
Bryson Barnes run for 6 yds to the USU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
0.9%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Rahsul Faison for 9 yds to the USU 46Similar
Q4 1:02
2ND & 1
OWN 46
0
0.8%
Bryson Barnes pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:56
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+20
0.8%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Grant Page for 20 yds to the CSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+8
0.8%
Bryson Barnes run for 8 yds to the CSU 26Similar
Q4 0:39
2ND & 2
OPP 26
+23
2.5%
Bryson Barnes run for 23 yds to the CSU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
2.2%
(00:21) BARNES, Bryson pass short to the right incomplete intended for WHITE, Kyrese thrown to the CSU0, clock 00:19. PENALTY CSU Pass Interference on HOWELL, Jack enforced 1 yards to the CSU2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 0:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
2.5%
Bryson Barnes pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
2.0%
Otto Tia 2 Yd pass from Bryson Barnes (Tanner Cragun Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 27INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 0:14
1ST & 10
50
0
2.2%
Bryson Barnes pass intercepted Dom Jones return for no gain to the CSU 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 28END OF 4TH QUARTER
1 play · -1 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 0:07
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-1
0.7%
(00:07) Kneel down by POOLER, Giles at CSU30 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+99.3
TD · Q3 1:07
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Otto Tia for 14 yds for a TD (Tanner Cragun KICK)
-17.1
TD · Q2 0:19
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Dane Olson for 28 yds for a TD (Jordan Noyes KICK)
+12.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com