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CSU

Colorado State 22 at Fresno State 28

FRES
2024 · Week 13 · Nov 23, 2024 · Valley Children's Stadium
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Win probability · FRES
modelFRES aheadCSU aheadconfidence bandkey playFRES scoreCSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 5:33 · Clay Lawrence punt for 40 yds , Kobe Johnson returns for no gain to the CSU 14
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+31.0+15.50−15.5−31.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 155Home team on offense+29.0Score differential+11.6Pregame prior+0.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+16.9Garbage-time factor+13.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+5.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:54: Joshua Wood run for 4 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK) — FRES win probability +9.0 pts (now 71%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 3:18: Mikey Keene pass complete to Mac Dalena for 28 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK) — FRES win probability +6.8 pts (now 82%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 3:25: Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi run for 9 yds for a TD (Jordan Noyes KICK) — CSU win probability +11.5 pts (now 16%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 0:17: Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Jamari Person for 5 yds for a TD (Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass to Vince Brown II for Two-Point Conversion) — CSU win probability +31.0 pts (now 34%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 0:16: (00:16) [NHSG] Kneel down by KEENE, Mikey at CSU44 (team loss of 1). — FRES win probability +28.7 pts (now 95%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FRES made the numbers' call on 7 of 8CSU made the numbers' call on 10 of 12
  1. Q1 8:28CSU 4th & 2 at FRES 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    40.1%
    55% to convert
    Field goal
    39.9%−0.2
    88% to make
    Punt
    38.9%−1.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:20CSU 4th & 16 at CSU 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.8%−0.9
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:50FRES 4th & 18 at FRES 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.1%−0.8
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.9%
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:26CSU 4th & 3 at CSU 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.6%−0.4
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.0%
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:59CSU 4th & 8 at CSU 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.6%−0.8
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:32FRES 4th & 1 at CSU 1, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    68.7%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    66.8%−1.8
    94% to make
    Punt
    62.3%−6.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:36CSU 4th & 10 at CSU 21, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.5%−1.5
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:09CSU 4th & 8 at CSU 37, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.4%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.6%
    average punt
  9. Q3 14:13FRES 4th & 8 at FRES 27, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.5%−0.6
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.1%
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:13CSU 4th & 5 at FRES 6, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 7.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.2%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    7.2%
    91% to make
    Punt
    1.0%−6.3
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:43FRES 4th & 19 at FRES 15, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.7%−1.6
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.2%
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:56CSU 4th & 28 at CSU 25, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.2%−1.8
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.0%
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:54FRES 4th & 10 at FRES 22, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.5%−0.8
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.3%
    average punt
  14. Q4 15:00FRES 4th & 8 at midfield, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.4%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.6%
    average punt
  15. Q4 12:21CSU 4th & 2 at CSU 32, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    9.2%−0.5
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:14CSU 4th & 2 at FRES 40, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    6.4%−1.7
    34% to make
    Punt
    6.4%−1.7
    average punt
  17. Q4 8:09CSU 4th & 15 at FRES 43, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 7.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.0%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    6.2%
    28% to make
    Punt
    6.1%−0.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 5:33FRES 4th & 7 at FRES 46, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.2%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.3%
    average punt
  19. Q4 4:01CSU 4th & 5 at CSU 19, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.1%−0.4
    average punt
  20. Q4 1:48FRES 4th & 1 at FRES 40, up 14
    Close callPunted · 97.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.6%−0.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FRES made the numbers' call on 4 of 4CSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 8:28CSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:06FRES Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:54FRES Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 3:18FRES Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:17FRES Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 3:25CSU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 0:17CSU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    6.7%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    6.4%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CSUDrive 1TD
13 plays · 77 yds · 6:2640% → 43%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
59.8%
Avery Morrow run for 4 yds to the CSU 27Similar
Q1 14:39
2ND & 6
OWN 27
0
59.8%
Avery Morrow run for no gain to the CSU 27Similar
Q1 13:53
3RD & 6
OWN 27
+9
59.8%
Justin Marshall run for 9 yds to the CSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
59.7%
Justin Marshall run for a loss of 1 yard to the CSU 35Similar
Q1 12:37
2ND & 11
OWN 35
0
59.8%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:11
3RD & 11
OWN 35
+22
59.9%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Jordan Ross for 22 yds to the FRES 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:39
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
59.4%
Justin Marshall run for 1 yd to the FRES 42Similar
Q1 11:11
2ND & 9
OPP 42
+15
59.3%
Fresno State Penalty, Horse Collar Tackle on EMBRY, Jakari enforced (Jakari Embry) to the FRES 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
59.1%
Justin Marshall run for 2 yds to the FRES 16Similar
Q1 10:11
2ND & 8
OPP 16
+3
59.1%
Justin Marshall run for 3 yds to the FRES 13Similar
Q1 9:36
3RD & 5
OPP 13
+3
59.3%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Justin Marshall for 3 yds to the FRES 10Similar
Q1 8:28
4TH & 2
OPP 10
+10
56.6%
Justin Marshall run for 10 yds for a TD (Jordan Noyes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 2TD
4 plays · 80 yds · 1:1857% → 61%
Q1 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+21
57.0%
Bryson Donelson run for 21 yds to the FRES 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
57.4%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Mac Dalena for 5 yds to the FRES 46Similar
Q1 7:57
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+38
57.5%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Raylen Sharpe for 38 yds to the CSU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:06
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
60.7%
Bryson Donelson run for 16 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 27 yds · 3:4140% → 40%
Q1 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+14
59.6%
Justin Marshall run for 14 yds to the CSU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
59.5%
Justin Marshall run for 2 yds to the CSU 22Similar
Q1 5:47
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+17
59.5%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Caleb Goodie for 17 yds to the CSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
58.8%
Justin Marshall run for no gain to the CSU 39Similar
Q1 5:17
2ND & 10
OWN 39
-6
59.0%
Jordan Ross run for a loss of 6 yards to the CSU 33Similar
Q1 5:17
3RD & 16
OWN 33
0
59.9%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:20
4TH & 16
OWN 33
0
60.1%
Paddy Turner punt for 24 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 4 yds · 2:3061% → 59%
Q1 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
60.5%
Mikey Keene run for 1 yd to the FRES 44Similar
Q1 2:52
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+6
60.5%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Richie Anderson for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 2:29
3RD & 3
50
+5
60.6%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Raylen Sharpe for 5 yds to the CSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:51
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
61.2%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:30
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
61.1%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:24
3RD & 10
OPP 45
-8
60.2%
Mikey Keene sacked by Ayden Hector for a loss of 8 yards to the FRES 47Similar
Q1 0:50
4TH & 18
OWN 47
0
58.9%
Clay Lawrence punt for 49 yds, downed at the CSU 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 2:1341% → 40%
Q1 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+11
59.0%
Justin Marshall run for 11 yds to the CSU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
58.8%
Kobe Johnson run for 2 yds to the CSU 17Similar
Q2 14:41
2ND & 8
OWN 17
+5
58.8%
Justin Marshall run for 5 yds to the CSU 22Similar
Q2 13:52
3RD & 3
OWN 22
0
59.0%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:26
4TH & 3
OWN 22
-16
59.6%
Paddy Turner punt for 35 yds , Jalen Moss returns for a loss of 16 yards to the FRES 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 6TD
6 plays · 58 yds · 2:2261% → 71%
Q2 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+43
60.9%
Bryson Donelson run for 43 yds to the CSU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:51
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
61.8%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Mac Dalena for 4 yds to the CSU 11Similar
Q2 12:32
2ND & 6
OPP 11
+2
61.9%
Bryson Donelson run for 2 yds to the CSU 9Similar
Q2 11:59
3RD & 4
OPP 9
+5
61.7%
Joshua Wood run for 5 yds to the CSU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
70.7%
Joshua Wood run for 4 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 1:0334% → 28%
Q2 10:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
66.4%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:47
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
66.6%
Justin Marshall run for 2 yds to the CSU 27Similar
Q2 10:06
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
67.3%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:59
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
68.1%
Paddy Turner punt for 38 yds , Jalen Moss returns for no gain to the FRES 35Similar
Q2 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
71.6%
(09:51) KEENE, Mikey pass deep to the right incomplete intended for DALENA, Mac thrown to the CSU44. PENALTY CSU Roughing the Passer on MITCHELL, James enforced 15 yards from the FST35 to the FST50 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 8DOWNS
8 plays · 64 yds · 3:1473% → 72%
Q2 9:46
1ST & 10
50
0
72.5%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:35
2ND & 10
50
+33
72.3%
Bryson Donelson run for 33 yds to the CSU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:17
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
72.4%
Bryson Donelson run for 4 yds to the CSU 13Similar
Q2 8:52
2ND & 6
OPP 13
+6
72.4%
(08:52) KEENE, Mikey pass to the right incomplete intended for SHARPE, Raylen thrown to the CSU0, clock 08:30. PENALTY CSU Pass Interference on PHELPS, Dylan enforced at the spot of the foul for 6 yards to the CSU7 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 8:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-3
72.2%
Raylen Sharpe run for a loss of 3 yards to the CSU 10Similar
Q2 8:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+7
72.5%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Richie Anderson for 7 yds to the CSU 3Similar
Q2 8:52
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
71.6%
Mikey Keene run for 2 yds to the CSU 1Similar
Q2 6:32
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
72.0%
Mikey Keene run for no gain to the CSU 1 Mikey Keene fumbled, recovered by CSU Jack Howell J. Howell return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 6:2130% → 28%
Q2 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+20
70.3%
Justin Marshall run for 20 yds to the CSU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
70.6%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:41
3RD & 10
OWN 21
0
71.7%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:36
4TH & 10
OWN 21
0
72.2%
Paddy Turner punt for 33 yds , Jordan Brown returns for no gain to the FRES 46Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 21
0
71.9%
Justin Marshall run for no gain to the CSU 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 10TD
6 plays · 54 yds · 2:1876% → 82%
Q2 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
75.6%
Bryson Donelson run for 9 yds to the CSU 45Similar
Q2 5:36
2ND & 1
OPP 45
+5
75.7%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Raylen Sharpe for 5 yds to the CSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:36
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+11
75.9%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Mac Dalena for 11 yds to the CSU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:36
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
75.6%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:36
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+1
75.5%
Joshua Wood run for 1 yd to the CSU 28Similar
Q2 3:18
3RD & 9
OPP 28
+28
82.3%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Mac Dalena for 28 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 12 yds · 1:0921% → 20%
Q2 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
78.6%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Caleb Goodie for 10 yds to the CSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
78.8%
Justin Marshall run for 2 yds to the CSU 37Similar
Q2 2:52
2ND & 8
OWN 37
0
78.8%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:52
3RD & 8
OWN 37
0
79.0%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Jamari Person for no gain to the CSU 37Similar
Q2 2:09
4TH & 8
OWN 37
0
80.5%
Paddy Turner punt for 21 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 12TD
12 plays · 58 yds · 1:3985% → 93%
Q2 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
84.8%
Elijah Gilliam run for 3 yds to the FRES 45Similar
Q2 1:56
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+8
84.6%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Mac Dalena for 8 yds to the CSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:56
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
85.0%
Bryson Donelson run for 2 yds to the CSU 45Similar
Q2 1:56
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+7
84.8%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Jalen Moss for 7 yds to the CSU 38Similar
Q2 1:23
3RD & 1
OPP 38
+7
84.4%
Bryson Donelson run for 7 yds to the CSU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:23
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
85.9%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:23
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+6
85.8%
Bryson Donelson run for 6 yds to the CSU 25Similar
Q2 1:23
3RD & 4
OPP 25
+6
84.8%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Raylen Sharpe for 6 yds to the CSU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
85.9%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Raylen Sharpe for 4 yds to the CSU 15Similar
Q2 0:17
2ND & 6
OPP 15
+15
92.7%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Jalen Moss for 15 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · 3 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
91.1%
Justin Marshall run for 3 yds to the CSU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:4492% → 92%
Q3 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
91.7%
Bryson Donelson run for 2 yds to the FRES 27Similar
Q3 14:42
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
91.9%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:20
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
91.7%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:13
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+15
91.6%
Clay Lawrence punt for 48 yds , Kobe Johnson returns for 15 yds to the CSU 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 15DOWNS
7 plays · 54 yds · 2:469% → 8%
Q3 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
90.6%
Justin Marshall run for 3 yds to the CSU 43Similar
Q3 13:30
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+7
91.0%
Dane Olson run for 7 yds to the FRES 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:37
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+33
91.1%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Caleb Goodie for 33 yds to the FRES 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
91.0%
Justin Marshall run for 5 yds to the FRES 6Similar
Q3 11:30
2ND & 5
OPP 6
0
91.4%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:18
3RD & 5
OPP 6
0
92.1%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:13
4TH & 5
OPP 6
0
92.2%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 1:4394% → 94%
Q3 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+3
93.5%
Bryson Donelson run for 3 yds to the FRES 9Similar
Q3 11:05
2ND & 7
OWN 9
+15
93.4%
Colorado State Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the FRES 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-12
93.6%
Mikey Keene pass incomplete Fresno State Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Mikey Keene) to the FRES 12Similar
Q3 11:05
2ND & 22
OWN 12
+2
93.5%
Bryson Donelson run for 2 yds to the FRES 14Similar
Q3 11:05
3RD & 20
OWN 14
+1
93.3%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Elijah Gilliam for 1 yd to the FRES 15Similar
Q3 9:43
4TH & 19
OWN 15
0
93.7%
Clay Lawrence punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Kobe Johnson at the CSU 43Similar
Q3 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-10
93.6%
(09:22) FOWLER-NICOLOSI, Brayden pass to the left complete for 0 yards to WINFIELD, Armani caught at the CSU40 and advanced to the CSU43 (CLARK, Dean). PENALTY CSU Holding on PERSON, Jamari enforced 10 yards from the CSU43 to the CSU33 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · -18 yds · 1:196% → 5%
Q3 9:15
1ST & 20
OWN 33
+1
94.0%
Justin Marshall run for 1 yd to the CSU 34Similar
Q3 8:15
2ND & 19
OWN 34
0
94.5%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:10
3RD & 19
OWN 34
-9
94.6%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi sacked by Korey Foreman for a loss of 9 yards to the CSU 25Similar
Q3 7:56
4TH & 28
OWN 25
0
94.7%
Paddy Turner punt for 53 yds, downed at the FRES 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:2595% → 95%
Q3 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-1
94.9%
Joshua Wood run for a loss of 1 yard to the FRES 21Similar
Q3 6:55
2ND & 11
OWN 21
+1
95.0%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Elijah Gilliam for 1 yd to the FRES 22Similar
Q3 6:22
3RD & 10
OWN 22
0
95.1%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:54
4TH & 10
OWN 22
+22
94.9%
Clay Lawrence punt for 35 yds , Kobe Johnson returns for 22 yds to the FRES 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 19TD
7 plays · 35 yds · 2:156% → 16%
Q3 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
94.5%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:32
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+8
94.5%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Jamari Person for 8 yds to the FRES 27Similar
Q3 5:00
3RD & 2
OPP 27
+3
95.5%
Damian Henderson II run for 3 yds to the FRES 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
95.2%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:10
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+6
95.5%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Jordan Ross for 6 yds to the FRES 18Similar
Q3 3:40
3RD & 4
OPP 18
+9
95.9%
(03:40) FOWLER-NICOLOSI, Brayden pass deep up the middle incomplete intended for PERSON, Jamari thrown to the FST0. PENALTY FST Holding on EMBRY, Jakari enforced half the distance from the goal, 9 yards from the FST18 to the FST9 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 3:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
84.4%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi run for 9 yds for a TD (Jordan Noyes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 20PUNT
9 plays · 29 yds · 3:1890% → 92%
Q3 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+8
89.5%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Johnathan Arceneaux for 8 yds to the FRES 29Similar
Q3 2:53
2ND & 2
OWN 29
+2
89.8%
Johnathan Arceneaux run for 2 yds to the FRES 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+17
91.5%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Mac Dalena for 17 yds to the FRES 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
92.2%
(01:52) KEENE, Mikey pass deep to the right incomplete intended for MOSS, Jalen broken up by PHELPS, Dylan at the CSU24. PENALTY CSU Offsides on GATKUOTH, Nuer enforced 5 yards from the FST48 to the CSU47 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 1:47
1ST & 5
OPP 47
+2
92.3%
Johnathan Arceneaux run for 2 yds to the CSU 45Similar
Q3 1:47
2ND & 3
OPP 45
-10
92.3%
KEENE, Mikey pass to the left complete for 7 yards to JAMES, Chedon caught at the CSU38 and advanced to the CSU38 (JONES, Dom), out of bounds. PENALTY FST Holding on NELSON, Braylen enforced 10 yards from the CSU45 to the FST45 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 1:05
2ND & 13
OWN 45
+2
92.6%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Mac Dalena for 2 yds to the FRES 47Similar
Q3 0:48
3RD & 11
OWN 47
+3
92.5%
Mikey Keene run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 8
50
0
92.3%
Clay Lawrence punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Kobe Johnson at the CSU 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 21DOWNS
21 plays · 49 yds · 7:0110% → 8%
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+4
90.5%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi run for 4 yds to the CSU 12Similar
Q4 14:31
2ND & 6
OWN 12
+12
90.3%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Jamari Person for 12 yds to the CSU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:31
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
90.2%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:45
2ND & 10
OWN 24
0
90.4%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Jamari Person for no gain to the CSU 24Similar
Q4 13:00
3RD & 10
OWN 24
+8
90.9%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Jamari Person for 8 yds to the CSU 32Similar
Q4 12:21
4TH & 2
OWN 32
+5
90.6%
Tommy Maher run for 5 yds to the CSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
90.4%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:27
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+15
90.5%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Lavon Brown for 15 yds to the FRES 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:49
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
89.5%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:41
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
89.5%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:36
3RD & 10
OPP 48
+8
90.4%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Lavon Brown for 8 yds to the FRES 40Similar
Q4 10:14
4TH & 2
OPP 40
+2
90.7%
Justin Marshall run for 2 yds to the FRES 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-10
90.3%
(09:49) JOHNSON, Kobe rush to the left for a gain of 14 yards to the FST24 (DAVIS, Jayden). PENALTY CSU Holding on URIONABARRENECHEA, Aitor enforced 10 yards from the FST38 to the FST48 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 9:26
1ST & 20
OPP 48
+1
90.6%
Kobe Johnson run for 1 yd to the FRES 47Similar
Q4 8:55
2ND & 19
OPP 47
0
91.1%
Justin Marshall pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:26
3RD & 19
OPP 47
-5
92.1%
Colorado State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the CSU 48Similar
Q4 8:09
4TH & 15
OPP 43
0
92.2%
Justin Marshall pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:53
3RD & 24
OWN 48
+9
91.8%
Justin Marshall pass complete to Lavon Brown for 9 yds to the FRES 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 2:1298% → 98%
Q4 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
97.9%
Elijah Gilliam run for 5 yds to the FRES 48Similar
Q4 7:08
2ND & 5
OWN 48
0
98.0%
Elijah Gilliam run for no gain to the FRES 48Similar
Q4 6:30
3RD & 5
OWN 48
-5
98.1%
Fresno State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the FRES 43Similar
Q4 6:20
3RD & 10
OWN 43
+3
98.1%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Elijah Gilliam for 3 yds to the FRES 46Similar
Q4 5:33
4TH & 7
OWN 46
0
98.2%
Clay Lawrence punt for 40 yds , Kobe Johnson returns for no gain to the CSU 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 23INT
8 plays · 52 yds · 2:226% → 6%
Q4 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+5
94.0%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Armani Winfield for 5 yds to the CSU 19Similar
Q4 4:41
2ND & 5
OWN 19
0
94.0%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Armani Winfield for no gain to the CSU 19Similar
Q4 4:19
3RD & 5
OWN 19
0
95.2%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:01
4TH & 5
OWN 19
+26
95.3%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Dane Olson for 26 yds to the CSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
94.5%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:25
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+11
94.5%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Jamari Person for 11 yds to the FRES 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:25
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+10
94.3%
Justin Marshall pass complete to Armani Winfield for 10 yds to the FRES 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:41
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-1
94.3%
Justin Marshall pass intercepted Phoenix Jackson return for 1 yd to the FRES 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 24PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 0:5399% → 99%
Q4 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
99.2%
Johnathan Arceneaux run for 2 yds to the FRES 33Similar
Q4 1:55
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+3
99.2%
Johnathan Arceneaux run for 3 yds to the FRES 36Similar
Q4 1:55
3RD & 5
OWN 36
+4
99.2%
Mac Dalena run for 4 yds to the FRES 40Similar
Q4 1:48
4TH & 1
OWN 40
0
99.4%
Clay Lawrence punt for 40 yds, downed at the CSU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 25TD
8 plays · 90 yds · 1:204% → 34%
Q4 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+8
95.9%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Dane Olson for 8 yds to the CSU 18Similar
Q4 1:11
2ND & 2
OWN 18
0
97.0%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:11
3RD & 2
OWN 18
+8
97.3%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Jamari Person for 8 yds to the CSU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
97.1%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:50
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+9
97.2%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Armani Winfield for 9 yds to the CSU 35Similar
Q4 0:50
3RD & 1
OWN 35
+60
97.1%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Jamari Person for 60 yds to the FRES 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
66.1%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Jamari Person for 5 yds for a TD (Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass to Vince Brown II for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 26END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q4 0:16
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-1
94.8%
(00:16) [NHSG] Kneel down by KEENE, Mikey at CSU44 (team loss of 1).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:17
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Jamari Person for 5 yds for a TD (Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass to Vince Brown II for Two-Point Conversion)
-31
KEY PLAY · Q4 0:16
(00:16) [NHSG] Kneel down by KEENE, Mikey at CSU44 (team loss of 1).
+28.7
TD · Q3 3:25
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi run for 9 yds for a TD (Jordan Noyes KICK)
-11.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com