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Win probability · NEV
modelNEV aheadAF aheadconfidence bandkey playNEV scoreAF score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 7:42 · Brendon Lewis pass complete to Jaden Smith for 23 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q3 7:42: Brendon Lewis pass complete to Jaden Smith for 23 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — NEV win probability +12.2 pts (now 75%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
- TD · Q4 8:29: Owen Allen run for 9 yds for a TD (O. Allen Run For Two-point Conversion) — AF win probability +31.1 pts (now 70%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
- TD · Q4 1:11: Quentin Hayes run for 1 yd for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK) — AF win probability +6.5 pts (now 96%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
- TD · Q4 0:04: Brendon Lewis pass complete to Cortez Braham Jr. for 27 yds for a TD (Kian Afrookhteh KICK) — NEV win probability +24.2 pts (now 28%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 0:01: (00:01) [NH] Kneel down by HAYES, Quentin at NEV42 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00. — AF win probability +22.5 pts (now 95%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
NEV made the numbers' call on 6 of 7AF made the numbers' call on 1 of 4
- Q1 11:32NEV 4th & 13 at AF 40, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 58.7% before the snapGo for it58.6%−0.121% to convertField goal58.7%−<0.134% to makePuntTheir call58.7%average punt
- Q1 9:49AF 4th & 3 at AF 10, tiedClose callPunted · 40.9% before the snapGo for it40.9%51% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call40.8%−0.1average punt
- Q1 7:45NEV 4th & 14 at NEV 41, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 58.2% before the snapGo for it58.0%−0.418% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call58.4%average punt
- Q2 13:11NEV 4th & 3 at NEV 40, down 7Close callPunted · 51.7% before the snapGo for it52.1%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call51.6%−0.5average punt
- Q2 10:15AF 4th & 6 at NEV 30, up 7Close callKicked a field goal · 50.4% before the snapGo for it50.2%40% to convertField goalTheir call50.1%−0.256% to makePunt49.2%−1.0average punt
- Q2 8:18NEV 4th & 1 at AF 43, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 50.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call50.7%70% to convertField goal47.1%−3.628% to makePunt47.9%−2.9average punt
- Q2 6:08NEV 4th & 9 at AF 9, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 48.6% before the snapGo for it47.0%−0.925% to convertField goalTheir call47.9%89% to makePunt40.8%−7.0average punt
- Q2 3:31AF 4th & 7 at AF 43, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.4% before the snapGo for it47.2%−0.637% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call47.8%average punt
- Q2 1:20NEV 4th & 8 at AF 8, down 4Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 52.7% before the snapGo for it51.1%−0.826% to convertField goalTheir call51.9%90% to makePunt45.4%−6.5average punt
- Q3 12:28AF 4th & 4 at AF 46, up 1Close callPunted · 47.3% before the snapGo for it48.2%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call47.9%−0.3average punt
- Q3 1:11NEV 4th & 10 at NEV 30, up 5Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.6% before the snapGo for it66.1%−2.728% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call68.8%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NEV made the numbers' call on 1 of 2AF made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q2 14:55AF Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call46.4%97% to makeGo for two46.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:42NEV Touchdown, up 5 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick68.5%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call68.4%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 8:29AF Touchdown, up 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersWent for two · convertedKick52.6%−1.597% to makeGo for twoTheir call54.1%45% to convert
- Q4 1:11AF Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.4%97% to makeGo for two94.1%−0.345% to convert
- Q4 0:04NEV Touchdown, down 4 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call13.9%97% to makeGo for two8.1%−5.845% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartNEVDrive 1PUNT10 plays · 24 yds · 3:2165% → 65%
Q1 14:48
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+11
65.0%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Cortez Braham Jr. for 11 yds to the NEV 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:28
2ND & 7
OPP 34
-5
65.2%
(12:28) LEWIS, Brendon pass deep up the middle complete for 34 yards to BRAHAM, Cortez caught at the AFA0 and advanced to the AFA0, TOUCHDOWN NEV, score nullified by penalty, clock 12:22 (Play was confirmed after review). PENALTY NEV Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on BRAHAM, Cortez enforced 5 yards from the AFA34 to the AFA39 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 2PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 1:4035% → 35%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 3PUNT5 plays · -4 yds · 2:0465% → 64%
AFDrive 4TD15 plays · 81 yds · 7:4436% → 45%
Q1 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+15
63.0%
(04:40) HAYES, Quentin pass short to the left incomplete intended for HARRIS, Cade thrown to the AFA45, clock 04:36. PENALTY NEV Roughing the Passer on ROPATI, Nelson enforced 15 yards from the AFA42 to the NEV43 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NH]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 5PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 1:3657% → 56%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 6MISSED FG5 plays · 54 yds · 2:5444% → 47%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 7FG10 plays · 61 yds · 4:0155% → 58%
Q2 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+18
54.5%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Jaden Smith for 18 yds to the NEV 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
55.5%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Deston Hawkins for no gain to the NEV 48Similar
Q2 8:52
3RD & 10
OWN 48
+9
53.6%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Nate Burleson II for 9 yds to the AFA 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 8PUNT6 plays · 18 yds · 2:3744% → 45%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 9FG12 plays · 72 yds · 2:1055% → 60%
Q2 2:49
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+15
53.5%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Jaden Smith for 15 yds to the NEV 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+20
55.6%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Cortez Braham Jr. for 20 yds to the AFA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:59
1ST & 5
OPP 37
+11
56.4%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Marquis Ashley for 11 yds to the AFA 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:51
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+16
58.0%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Cortez Braham Jr. for 16 yds to the AFA 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:24
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
-3
55.9%
Brendon Lewis sacked by Daniel Grobe and Grant Uyl for a loss of 3 yards to the AFA 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 10END OF HALF8 plays · 29 yds · 1:1744% → 48%
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
54.6%
(00:15) QB Keeper HAYES, Quentin rush up the middle for a loss of 2 yards, HAYES, Quentin fumbled at AFA33 , recovered by NEV LABARBERA, Dylan at the AFA33, returned 0 yards to the AFA33, End of Play, clock 00:10. PENALTY NEV Holding on CRAWFORD, Kitan enforced 10 yards from the AFA35 to the AFA45 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NH]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 11PUNT6 plays · 21 yds · 2:2944% → 44%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 12TD9 plays · 80 yds · 4:4058% → 75%
Q3 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
57.9%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Deston Hawkins for 9 yds to the NEV 40Similar
Q3 11:03
2ND & 1
OWN 40
+17
60.6%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Cortez Braham Jr. for 17 yds to the AFA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:54
3RD & 12
OPP 45
+20
57.9%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Cortez Braham Jr. for 20 yds to the AFA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:42
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+23
74.7%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Jaden Smith for 23 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 13INT11 plays · 35 yds · 5:3732% → 33%
Q3 2:05
3RD & 11
OPP 40
+15
67.0%
Nevada Penalty, Personal Foul (Tongiaki Mateialona) to the NEV 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 14PUNT5 plays · 14 yds · 0:3572% → 69%
Q3 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+14
71.6%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Jaden Smith for 14 yds to the NEV 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 15TD14 plays · 74 yds · 7:3631% → 70%
Q4 8:29
2ND & 6
OPP 9
+9
30.1%
Owen Allen run for 9 yds for a TD (O. Allen Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 16INT8 plays · 28 yds · 3:5243% → 43%
Q4 7:51
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+12
43.3%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Cortez Braham Jr. for 12 yds to the NEV 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:36
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+6
42.7%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Deston Hawkins for 6 yds to the NEV 46Similar
Q4 5:17
2ND & 10
50
+3
43.5%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Deston Hawkins for 3 yds to the AFA 47Similar
Q4 4:32
3RD & 7
OPP 47
-39
43.3%
Brendon Lewis pass intercepted Osaro Aihie return for 39 yds to the NEV 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 17TD12 plays · 25 yds · 3:1078% → 96%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 18TD7 plays · 75 yds · 1:053% → 28%
Q4 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
3.1%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Marcus Bellon for 13 yds to the NEV 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
3.3%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Deston Hawkins for 2 yds to the NEV 40Similar
Q4 0:53
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+8
3.4%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Deston Hawkins for 8 yds to the NEV 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
3.4%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Deston Hawkins for 5 yds to the AFA 47Similar
Q4 0:04
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
28.0%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Cortez Braham Jr. for 27 yds for a TD (Kian Afrookhteh KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 19END OF GAME1 play · -1 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q4 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-1
5.5%
(00:01) [NH] Kneel down by HAYES, Quentin at NEV42 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 8:29
Owen Allen run for 9 yds for a TD (O. Allen Run For Two-point Conversion)
-31.1
TD · Q4 0:04
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Cortez Braham Jr. for 27 yds for a TD (Kian Afrookhteh KICK)
+24.2
KEY PLAY · Q4 0:01
(00:01) [NH] Kneel down by HAYES, Quentin at NEV42 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.
-22.5