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AF

Air Force 22 at Nevada 19

NEV
2024 · Week 13 · Nov 23, 2024 · Mackay Stadium
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Win probability · NEV
modelNEV aheadAF aheadconfidence bandkey playNEV scoreAF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:01 · (00:01) [NH] Kneel down by HAYES, Quentin at NEV42 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+38.5+19.30−19.3−38.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 7:42: Brendon Lewis pass complete to Jaden Smith for 23 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — NEV win probability +12.2 pts (now 75%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 8:29: Owen Allen run for 9 yds for a TD (O. Allen Run For Two-point Conversion) — AF win probability +31.1 pts (now 70%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 1:11: Quentin Hayes run for 1 yd for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK) — AF win probability +6.5 pts (now 96%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 0:04: Brendon Lewis pass complete to Cortez Braham Jr. for 27 yds for a TD (Kian Afrookhteh KICK) — NEV win probability +24.2 pts (now 28%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 0:01: (00:01) [NH] Kneel down by HAYES, Quentin at NEV42 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00. — AF win probability +22.5 pts (now 95%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NEV made the numbers' call on 6 of 7AF made the numbers' call on 1 of 4
  1. Q1 11:32NEV 4th & 13 at AF 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.6%−0.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    58.7%−<0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    58.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:49AF 4th & 3 at AF 10, tied
    Close callPunted · 40.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.9%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.8%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:45NEV 4th & 14 at NEV 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.0%−0.4
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.4%
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:11NEV 4th & 3 at NEV 40, down 7
    Close callPunted · 51.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.6%−0.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:15AF 4th & 6 at NEV 30, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 50.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    50.1%−0.2
    56% to make
    Punt
    49.2%−1.0
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:18NEV 4th & 1 at AF 43, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 50.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    50.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    47.1%−3.6
    28% to make
    Punt
    47.9%−2.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:08NEV 4th & 9 at AF 9, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 48.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.0%−0.9
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    47.9%
    89% to make
    Punt
    40.8%−7.0
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:31AF 4th & 7 at AF 43, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.2%−0.6
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.8%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:20NEV 4th & 8 at AF 8, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 52.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.1%−0.8
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    51.9%
    90% to make
    Punt
    45.4%−6.5
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:28AF 4th & 4 at AF 46, up 1
    Close callPunted · 47.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.9%−0.3
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:11NEV 4th & 10 at NEV 30, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.1%−2.7
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.8%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NEV made the numbers' call on 1 of 2AF made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q2 14:55AF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 7:42NEV Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    68.5%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    68.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 8:29AF Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    52.6%−1.5
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    54.1%
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 1:11AF Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.1%−0.3
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 0:04NEV Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.1%−5.8
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NEVDrive 1PUNT
10 plays · 24 yds · 3:2165% → 65%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
65.0%
Brendon Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:48
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+11
65.0%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Cortez Braham Jr. for 11 yds to the NEV 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
65.0%
Brendon Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:18
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+5
65.0%
Brendon Lewis run for 5 yds to the AFA 48Similar
Q1 13:35
3RD & 5
OPP 48
+11
65.0%
Brendon Lewis run for 11 yds to the AFA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:03
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
65.1%
Deston Hawkins run for 3 yds to the AFA 34Similar
Q1 12:28
2ND & 7
OPP 34
-5
65.2%
(12:28) LEWIS, Brendon pass deep up the middle complete for 34 yards to BRAHAM, Cortez caught at the AFA0 and advanced to the AFA0, TOUCHDOWN NEV, score nullified by penalty, clock 12:22 (Play was confirmed after review). PENALTY NEV Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on BRAHAM, Cortez enforced 5 yards from the AFA34 to the AFA39 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 12:22
2ND & 12
OPP 39
-1
65.1%
Brendon Lewis run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 40Similar
Q1 11:48
3RD & 13
OPP 40
0
64.9%
Brendon Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:32
4TH & 13
OPP 40
0
64.7%
Guy Gillespie punt for 37 yds, downed at the AFA 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:4035% → 35%
Q1 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+5
64.8%
Dylan Carson run for 5 yds to the AFA 8Similar
Q1 10:55
2ND & 5
OWN 8
+1
64.7%
Dylan Carson run for 1 yd to the AFA 9Similar
Q1 10:11
3RD & 4
OWN 9
+1
64.9%
Dylan Carson run for 1 yd to the AFA 10Similar
Q1 9:49
4TH & 3
OWN 10
0
64.9%
Luke Freer punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 2:0465% → 64%
Q1 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
65.0%
Caleb Ramseur run for 1 yd to the NEV 46Similar
Q1 9:15
2ND & 9
OWN 46
-9
65.0%
Brendon Lewis sacked by David Santiago for a loss of 9 yards to the NEV 37Similar
Q1 8:35
3RD & 18
OWN 37
+9
64.0%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Caleb Ramseur for 9 yds to the NEV 46Similar
Q1 7:49
4TH & 9
OWN 46
-5
64.1%
Nevada Penalty, Delay Of Game (-5 Yards) to the NEV 41Similar
Q1 7:45
4TH & 14
OWN 41
0
63.7%
Guy Gillespie punt for 40 yds, downed at the AFA 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 4TD
15 plays · 81 yds · 7:4436% → 45%
Q1 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
64.1%
Dylan Carson run for 5 yds to the AFA 24Similar
Q1 7:08
2ND & 5
OWN 24
+6
63.9%
Kade Frew run for 6 yds to the AFA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
63.8%
Owen Allen run for 2 yds to the AFA 32Similar
Q1 5:40
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+7
63.6%
Owen Allen run for 7 yds to the AFA 39Similar
Q1 5:10
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+3
63.1%
Quentin Hayes run for 3 yds to the AFA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+15
63.0%
(04:40) HAYES, Quentin pass short to the left incomplete intended for HARRIS, Cade thrown to the AFA45, clock 04:36. PENALTY NEV Roughing the Passer on ROPATI, Nelson enforced 15 yards from the AFA42 to the NEV43 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NH]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 4:35
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+8
62.6%
Dylan Carson run for 8 yds to the NEV 35Similar
Q1 3:55
2ND & 2
OPP 35
+1
62.0%
Dylan Carson run for 1 yd to the NEV 34Similar
Q1 3:10
3RD & 1
OPP 34
+4
62.2%
Quentin Hayes run for 4 yds to the NEV 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
61.3%
Dylan Carson run for 3 yds to the NEV 27Similar
Q1 2:00
2ND & 7
OPP 27
+6
60.9%
Quentin Hayes run for 6 yds to the NEV 21Similar
Q1 1:39
3RD & 1
OPP 21
+2
61.3%
Quentin Hayes run for 2 yds to the NEV 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:03
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-1
60.6%
Quentin Hayes run for a loss of 1 yard to the NEV 20Similar
Q1 0:20
2ND & 11
OPP 20
+9
60.7%
Kade Frew run for 9 yds to the NEV 11Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 2
OPP 11
+11
55.1%
Dylan Carson run for 11 yds for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:3657% → 56%
Q2 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
57.1%
Savion Red run for 4 yds to the NEV 37Similar
Q2 14:18
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+1
57.5%
Chubba Purdy run for 1 yd to the NEV 38Similar
Q2 13:41
3RD & 5
OWN 38
+2
56.9%
Brendon Lewis run for 2 yds to the NEV 40Similar
Q2 13:11
4TH & 3
OWN 40
0
55.8%
Guy Gillespie punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 6MISSED FG
5 plays · 54 yds · 2:5444% → 47%
Q2 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+50
55.8%
Dylan Carson run for 50 yds to the NEV 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:11
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
53.0%
Owen Allen run for 4 yds to the NEV 30Similar
Q2 11:30
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+1
52.4%
Owen Allen run for 1 yd to the NEV 29Similar
Q2 10:52
3RD & 5
OPP 29
-1
52.3%
Quentin Hayes run for a loss of 1 yard to the NEV 30Similar
Q2 10:15
4TH & 6
OPP 30
+47
53.2%
Matthew Dapore 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 7FG
10 plays · 61 yds · 4:0155% → 58%
Q2 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+18
54.5%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Jaden Smith for 18 yds to the NEV 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
55.5%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Deston Hawkins for no gain to the NEV 48Similar
Q2 8:55
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
54.9%
Brendon Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:52
3RD & 10
OWN 48
+9
53.6%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Nate Burleson II for 9 yds to the AFA 43Similar
Q2 8:18
4TH & 1
OPP 43
+15
54.2%
Brendon Lewis run for 15 yds to the AFA 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:34
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+22
55.3%
Deston Hawkins run for 22 yds to the AFA 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-3
55.0%
Savion Red run for a loss of 3 yards to the AFA 9Similar
Q2 6:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
54.7%
Brendon Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
53.5%
Brendon Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:08
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+27
57.8%
Kian Afrookhteh 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 2:3744% → 45%
Q2 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
55.6%
Dylan Carson run for 8 yds to the AFA 33Similar
Q2 5:29
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+7
54.1%
Dylan Carson run for 7 yds to the AFA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
53.2%
Dylan Carson run for no gain to the AFA 40Similar
Q2 4:10
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+3
53.4%
Dylan Carson run for 3 yds to the AFA 43Similar
Q2 3:37
3RD & 7
OWN 43
0
53.2%
Quentin Hayes pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:31
4TH & 7
OWN 43
0
55.1%
Luke Freer punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 9FG
12 plays · 72 yds · 2:1055% → 60%
Q2 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
55.4%
Brendon Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:24
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+3
55.1%
Savion Red run for 3 yds to the NEV 23Similar
Q2 2:49
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+15
53.5%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Jaden Smith for 15 yds to the NEV 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+20
55.6%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Cortez Braham Jr. for 20 yds to the AFA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
57.8%
Air Force Penalty, Offsides (Payton Zdroik) to the AFA 37Similar
Q2 1:59
1ST & 5
OPP 37
+11
56.4%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Marquis Ashley for 11 yds to the AFA 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:51
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+16
58.0%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Cortez Braham Jr. for 16 yds to the AFA 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
57.9%
Brendon Lewis run for 2 yds to the AFA 8Similar
Q2 1:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
57.9%
Savion Red run for 3 yds to the AFA 5Similar
Q2 1:24
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
-3
55.9%
Brendon Lewis sacked by Daniel Grobe and Grant Uyl for a loss of 3 yards to the AFA 8Similar
Q2 1:20
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+26
59.6%
Kian Afrookhteh 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 10END OF HALF
8 plays · 29 yds · 1:1744% → 48%
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
56.1%
Dylan Carson run for 2 yds to the AFA 27Similar
Q2 1:08
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
55.7%
Kade Frew run for 5 yds to the AFA 32Similar
Q2 0:25
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+3
55.4%
Owen Allen run for 3 yds to the AFA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
54.6%
(00:15) QB Keeper HAYES, Quentin rush up the middle for a loss of 2 yards, HAYES, Quentin fumbled at AFA33 , recovered by NEV LABARBERA, Dylan at the AFA33, returned 0 yards to the AFA33, End of Play, clock 00:10. PENALTY NEV Holding on CRAWFORD, Kitan enforced 10 yards from the AFA35 to the AFA45 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NH]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
53.0%
Cade Harris run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 5
50
+4
52.1%
Kade Frew run for 4 yds to the NEV 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 2:2944% → 44%
Q3 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
56.4%
Owen Allen run for 4 yds to the AFA 29Similar
Q3 14:26
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+11
55.6%
Owen Allen run for 11 yds to the AFA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
54.0%
Owen Allen run for 1 yd to the AFA 41Similar
Q3 13:22
2ND & 9
OWN 41
0
54.3%
Quentin Hayes pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:13
3RD & 9
OWN 41
+5
55.3%
Kemper Hodges run for 5 yds to the AFA 46Similar
Q3 12:28
4TH & 4
OWN 46
0
55.8%
Luke Freer punt for 54 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 12TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 4:4058% → 75%
Q3 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
57.5%
Brendon Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:16
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+11
57.4%
Brendon Lewis run for 11 yds to the NEV 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
57.9%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Deston Hawkins for 9 yds to the NEV 40Similar
Q3 11:03
2ND & 1
OWN 40
+17
60.6%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Cortez Braham Jr. for 17 yds to the AFA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:23
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
61.3%
Deston Hawkins run for 2 yds to the AFA 41Similar
Q3 9:33
2ND & 8
OPP 41
-4
61.3%
Brendon Lewis run for a loss of 4 yards to the AFA 45Similar
Q3 8:54
3RD & 12
OPP 45
+20
57.9%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Cortez Braham Jr. for 20 yds to the AFA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:26
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
62.5%
Deston Hawkins run for 2 yds to the AFA 23Similar
Q3 7:42
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+23
74.7%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Jaden Smith for 23 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 13INT
11 plays · 35 yds · 5:3732% → 33%
Q3 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
68.5%
Owen Allen run for 8 yds to the AFA 33Similar
Q3 7:11
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+4
66.0%
Owen Allen run for 4 yds to the AFA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
67.4%
Owen Allen run for 3 yds to the AFA 40Similar
Q3 6:07
2ND & 7
OWN 40
0
66.3%
Quentin Hayes run for no gain to the AFA 40Similar
Q3 5:28
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+10
68.0%
Quentin Hayes run for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:51
1ST & 10
50
+4
64.2%
Owen Allen run for 4 yds to the NEV 46Similar
Q3 4:19
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+5
64.3%
Owen Allen run for 5 yds to the NEV 41Similar
Q3 3:52
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+2
64.0%
Quentin Hayes run for 2 yds to the NEV 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:13
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
64.3%
Kade Frew run for 3 yds to the NEV 36Similar
Q3 2:44
2ND & 7
OPP 36
-4
63.9%
Kade Frew run for a loss of 4 yards to the NEV 40Similar
Q3 2:05
3RD & 11
OPP 40
+15
67.0%
Nevada Penalty, Personal Foul (Tongiaki Mateialona) to the NEV 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 14 yds · 0:3572% → 69%
Q3 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+14
71.6%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Jaden Smith for 14 yds to the NEV 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
71.9%
Brendon Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:18
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
71.5%
Brendon Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:18
3RD & 10
OWN 30
0
70.0%
Brendon Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:11
4TH & 10
OWN 30
0
69.2%
Guy Gillespie punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 15TD
14 plays · 74 yds · 7:3631% → 70%
Q3 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
68.8%
Owen Allen run for 2 yds to the AFA 28Similar
Q3 0:33
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+11
68.6%
Quentin Hayes run for 11 yds to the AFA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
67.0%
Owen Allen run for 6 yds to the AFA 45Similar
Q4 14:21
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+6
64.9%
Owen Allen run for 6 yds to the NEV 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:46
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-5
64.2%
Quentin Hayes run for a loss of 5 yards to the AFA 46Similar
Q4 13:11
2ND & 15
OWN 46
+3
68.4%
Quentin Hayes run for 3 yds to the AFA 49Similar
Q4 12:29
3RD & 12
OWN 49
+16
68.4%
Quentin Hayes run for 16 yds to the NEV 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:01
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
62.6%
Kemper Hodges run for 6 yds to the NEV 29Similar
Q4 11:22
2ND & 4
OPP 29
+4
61.8%
Owen Allen run for 4 yds to the NEV 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
61.8%
Owen Allen run for 2 yds to the NEV 23Similar
Q4 10:12
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+7
61.8%
Quentin Hayes run for 7 yds to the NEV 16Similar
Q4 9:36
3RD & 1
OPP 16
+3
63.1%
Quentin Hayes run for 3 yds to the NEV 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:02
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
61.2%
Owen Allen run for 4 yds to the NEV 9Similar
Q4 8:29
2ND & 6
OPP 9
+9
30.1%
Owen Allen run for 9 yds for a TD (O. Allen Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 16INT
8 plays · 28 yds · 3:5243% → 43%
Q4 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
43.3%
Deston Hawkins run for 2 yds to the NEV 27Similar
Q4 7:51
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+12
43.3%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Cortez Braham Jr. for 12 yds to the NEV 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
44.3%
Deston Hawkins run for 1 yd to the NEV 40Similar
Q4 6:36
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+6
42.7%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Deston Hawkins for 6 yds to the NEV 46Similar
Q4 5:58
3RD & 3
OWN 46
+4
43.9%
Brendon Lewis run for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:18
1ST & 10
50
0
44.2%
Brendon Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:17
2ND & 10
50
+3
43.5%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Deston Hawkins for 3 yds to the AFA 47Similar
Q4 4:32
3RD & 7
OPP 47
-39
43.3%
Brendon Lewis pass intercepted Osaro Aihie return for 39 yds to the NEV 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 17TD
12 plays · 25 yds · 3:1078% → 96%
Q4 4:21
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
22.5%
Owen Allen run for no gain to the NEV 25Similar
Q4 3:39
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+9
21.5%
Owen Allen run for 9 yds to the NEV 16Similar
Q4 3:25
3RD & 1
OPP 16
+2
19.2%
Quentin Hayes run for 2 yds to the NEV 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+8
15.7%
Owen Allen run for 8 yds to the NEV 6Similar
Q4 2:38
2ND & 2
OPP 6
+4
15.7%
Quentin Hayes run for 4 yds to the NEV 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
14.7%
Quentin Hayes run for 1 yd to the NEV 1Similar
Q4 1:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
11.3%
Quentin Hayes run for no gain to the NEV 1Similar
Q4 1:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
3.7%
Quentin Hayes run for 1 yd for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 18TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:053% → 28%
Q4 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
3.1%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Marcus Bellon for 13 yds to the NEV 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
3.3%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Deston Hawkins for 2 yds to the NEV 40Similar
Q4 0:53
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+8
3.4%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Deston Hawkins for 8 yds to the NEV 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
3.4%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Deston Hawkins for 5 yds to the AFA 47Similar
Q4 0:24
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+8
3.9%
Brendon Lewis run for 8 yds to the AFA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:18
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+12
3.8%
Brendon Lewis run for 12 yds to the AFA 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:04
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
28.0%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Cortez Braham Jr. for 27 yds for a TD (Kian Afrookhteh KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 19END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q4 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-1
5.5%
(00:01) [NH] Kneel down by HAYES, Quentin at NEV42 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 8:29
Owen Allen run for 9 yds for a TD (O. Allen Run For Two-point Conversion)
-31.1
TD · Q4 0:04
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Cortez Braham Jr. for 27 yds for a TD (Kian Afrookhteh KICK)
+24.2
KEY PLAY · Q4 0:01
(00:01) [NH] Kneel down by HAYES, Quentin at NEV42 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.
-22.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com