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FRES

Fresno State 28 at Air Force 36

AF
2024 · Week 11 · Nov 9, 2024 · Falcon Stadium
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Win probability · AF
modelAF aheadFRES aheadconfidence bandkey playAF scoreFRES score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 5:58 · Mikey Keene sacked by David Santiago for a loss of 13 yards to the FRES 25
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+32.0+16.00−16.0−32.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 124Pregame prior−3.6Home team on offense+20.3Score differential+10.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.0Garbage-time factor+5.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 4:45: Quentin Hayes pass complete to Cade Harris for 3 yds for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK) — AF win probability +10.8 pts (now 47%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 3:47: Mikey Keene pass complete to Mac Dalena for 73 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK) — FRES win probability +14.3 pts (now 69%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 2:30: Quentin Hayes run for 2 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — AF win probability +16.4 pts (now 60%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 8:51: Quentin Hayes run for 1 yd for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK) — AF win probability +53.3 pts (now 97%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:38: Mikey Keene pass complete to Mac Dalena for 6 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK) — FRES win probability +19.6 pts (now 26%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
AF made the numbers' call on 7 of 8FRES made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 2:40AF 4th & 1 at FRES 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 30.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    29.0%−0.9
    75% to make
    Punt
    26.4%−3.5
    average punt
  2. Q2 13:10FRES 4th & 11 at FRES 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.5%−0.7
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.2%
    average punt
  3. Q2 6:49AF 4th & 1 at FRES 9, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    40.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    38.1%−2.1
    89% to make
    Punt
    32.9%−7.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 2:26AF 4th & 1 at AF 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    39.6%−1.4
    average punt
  5. Q3 9:46AF 4th & 4 at FRES 19, down 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 37.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.7%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.4%−0.3
    77% to make
    Punt
    28.5%−9.2
    average punt
  6. Q3 5:39AF 4th & 1 at FRES 21, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    44.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    41.2%−3.4
    74% to make
    Punt
    30.6%−14.0
    average punt
  7. Q3 2:30AF 4th & 2 at FRES 2, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    45.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    42.4%−3.5
    94% to make
    Punt
    27.4%−18.5
    average punt
  8. Q3 0:36FRES 4th & 5 at AF 38, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 43.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    44.5%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    41.7%−2.8
    38% to make
    Punt
    41.5%−3.1
    average punt
  9. Q4 5:58FRES 4th & 11 at FRES 38, down 12
    Close callWent for it · 7.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.4%−0.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.6%
    average punt
  10. Q4 3:44AF 4th & 1 at FRES 16, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    94.0%−1.3
    81% to make
    Punt
    90.2%−5.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 1:56AF 4th & 15 at FRES 19, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.8%−0.7
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.4%
    77% to make
    Punt
    94.4%−2.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AF made the numbers' call on 3 of 4FRES made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 11:01FRES Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:11AF Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 4:45AF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 3:47FRES Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:37FRES Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 2:30AF Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    61.9%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    61.7%−0.3
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 8:51AF Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 0:38FRES Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.7%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FRESDrive 1TD
8 plays · 59 yds · 3:5082% → 81%
Q1 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+15
18.1%
Air Force Penalty, Horse Collar Tackle on AIHIE, Osaro enforced (Osaro Aihie) to the AFA 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:27
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+12
18.7%
Elijah Gilliam run for 12 yds to the AFA 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:03
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+8
18.8%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Richie Anderson for 8 yds to the AFA 8Similar
Q1 12:27
2ND & 2
OPP 8
+4
19.1%
Johnathan Arceneaux run for 4 yds to the AFA 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
19.1%
Elijah Gilliam run for no gain to the AFA 4Similar
Q1 12:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
19.2%
Johnathan Arceneaux run for 2 yds to the AFA 2Similar
Q1 11:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
19.6%
(11:30) KEENE, Mikey sacked for a loss of 0 yards at the AF2 (TUIOTI-MARINER, Lincoln), clock 11:24. PENALTY AF Holding on BELLAMY, Jamari enforced half the distance from the goal, 1 yards from the AF2 to the AF1 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 11:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
18.8%
Elijah Gilliam run for 1 yd for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 2TD
20 plays · 75 yds · 10:4819% → 28%
Q1 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
19.1%
Dylan Carson run for 5 yds to the AFA 30Similar
Q1 10:27
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
19.3%
Dylan Carson run for 4 yds to the AFA 34Similar
Q1 10:01
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
19.5%
Quentin Hayes run for 3 yds to the AFA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
19.7%
Owen Allen run for 3 yds to the AFA 40Similar
Q1 8:49
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+7
19.8%
Kade Frew run for 7 yds to the AFA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
20.2%
Dylan Carson run for 5 yds to the FRES 48Similar
Q1 7:36
2ND & 5
OPP 48
0
20.5%
Dylan Carson run for no gain to the FRES 48Similar
Q1 6:56
3RD & 5
OPP 48
+5
20.6%
Kade Frew run for 5 yds to the FRES 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:18
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
20.9%
Quentin Hayes run for 5 yds to the FRES 38Similar
Q1 5:43
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+3
21.1%
Dylan Carson run for 3 yds to the FRES 35Similar
Q1 5:06
3RD & 2
OPP 35
+6
21.3%
Owen Allen run for 6 yds to the FRES 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:35
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-5
21.8%
Air Force Penalty, Illegal Substitution (-5 Yards) to the FRES 34Similar
Q1 4:22
1ST & 15
OPP 34
+5
21.7%
Owen Allen run for 5 yds to the FRES 29Similar
Q1 3:51
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+5
22.1%
Tylor Latham run for 5 yds to the FRES 24Similar
Q1 3:12
3RD & 5
OPP 24
+4
21.9%
Quentin Hayes run for 4 yds to the FRES 20Similar
Q1 2:40
4TH & 1
OPP 20
+3
21.8%
Quentin Hayes run for 3 yds to the FRES 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:04
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
22.5%
Dylan Carson run for 3 yds to the FRES 14Similar
Q1 1:21
2ND & 7
OPP 14
+5
22.8%
Dylan Carson run for 5 yds to the FRES 9Similar
Q1 0:48
3RD & 2
OPP 9
+8
22.5%
Dylan Carson run for 8 yds to the FRES 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
27.8%
Dylan Carson run for 1 yd for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · -1 yds · 1:5575% → 73%
Q1 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
25.2%
Bryson Donelson run for 2 yds to the FRES 23Similar
Q2 14:57
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+1
25.3%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Jalen Moss for 1 yd to the FRES 24Similar
Q2 14:13
3RD & 7
OWN 24
+1
26.0%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Mac Dalena for 1 yd to the FRES 25Similar
Q2 13:18
4TH & 6
OWN 25
-5
27.0%
Fresno State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the FRES 20Similar
Q2 13:10
4TH & 11
OWN 20
+3
27.3%
Clay Lawrence punt for 42 yds , Brandon Engel returns for 3 yds to the AFA 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 4TD
15 plays · 59 yds · 8:1929% → 47%
Q2 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
28.6%
Quentin Hayes run for 1 yd to the AFA 42Similar
Q2 12:29
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+9
28.7%
Quentin Hayes run for 9 yds to the FRES 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:44
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
30.1%
Dylan Carson run for 2 yds to the FRES 47Similar
Q2 11:09
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+2
30.6%
Owen Allen run for 2 yds to the FRES 45Similar
Q2 10:26
3RD & 6
OPP 45
+2
30.7%
Quentin Hayes run for 2 yds to the FRES 43Similar
Q2 9:45
4TH & 4
OPP 43
+15
30.4%
HAYES, Quentin pass short to the right incomplete intended for FREW, Kade thrown to the FS38, clock 09:45. PENALTY FS Personal Foul on NEAL, Julian enforced 15 yards from the FS43 to the FS28 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
32.3%
Dylan Carson run for 3 yds to the FRES 25Similar
Q2 9:06
2ND & 7
OPP 25
+7
32.9%
Quentin Hayes run for 7 yds to the FRES 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:29
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
33.4%
Owen Allen run for 3 yds to the FRES 15Similar
Q2 7:54
2ND & 7
OPP 15
+5
33.7%
Owen Allen run for 5 yds to the FRES 10Similar
Q2 7:18
3RD & 2
OPP 10
+1
33.2%
Dylan Carson run for 1 yd to the FRES 9Similar
Q2 6:49
4TH & 1
OPP 9
+2
32.6%
Quentin Hayes run for 2 yds to the FRES 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
35.2%
Cade Harris run for 3 yds to the FRES 4Similar
Q2 5:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
35.7%
Dylan Carson run for 1 yd to the FRES 3Similar
Q2 4:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
46.5%
Quentin Hayes pass complete to Cade Harris for 3 yds for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 5TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:5758% → 69%
Q2 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-8
42.3%
Mikey Keene run for a loss of 8 yards to the FRES 17Similar
Q2 4:29
2ND & 18
OWN 17
+10
45.2%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Jordan Brown for 10 yds to the FRES 27Similar
Q2 3:47
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+73
30.8%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Mac Dalena for 73 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 6DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:2034% → 33%
Q2 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
33.8%
Cade Harris run for 5 yds to the AFA 30Similar
Q2 3:17
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
34.6%
Quentin Hayes run for 3 yds to the AFA 33Similar
Q2 2:38
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
34.2%
Dylan Carson run for 1 yd to the AFA 34Similar
Q2 2:26
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
32.7%
Quentin Hayes run for no gain to the AFA 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 7TD
4 plays · 34 yds · 0:4471% → 74%
Q2 2:21
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-3
28.8%
Joshua Wood run for a loss of 3 yards to the AFA 37Similar
Q2 1:57
2ND & 13
OPP 37
+18
31.4%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Richie Anderson for 18 yds to the AFA 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:37
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
25.6%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Jalen Moss for 19 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 8FG
12 plays · 53 yds · 1:2329% → 38%
Q2 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
29.2%
Quentin Hayes run for 4 yds to the AFA 34Similar
Q2 1:01
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+9
30.1%
Quentin Hayes run for 9 yds to the AFA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
30.9%
Quentin Hayes pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:39
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
30.1%
Quentin Hayes pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:33
3RD & 10
OWN 43
+14
29.4%
Quentin Hayes run for 14 yds to the FRES 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
32.4%
Quentin Hayes pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:18
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+11
31.9%
Quentin Hayes pass complete to Brandon Engel for 11 yds to the FRES 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:12
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
33.8%
Quentin Hayes pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:11
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+1
33.7%
Quentin Hayes run for 1 yd to the FRES 31Similar
Q2 0:05
3RD & 9
OPP 31
+14
31.6%
Owen Allen run for 14 yds to the FRES 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+35
38.2%
Matthew Dapore 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 9FG
9 plays · 56 yds · 5:1329% → 37%
Q3 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
29.1%
Kade Frew run for 9 yds to the AFA 34Similar
Q3 14:24
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+5
31.3%
Dylan Carson run for 5 yds to the AFA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
30.6%
Dylan Carson run for 3 yds to the AFA 42Similar
Q3 13:06
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+3
32.2%
Dylan Carson run for 3 yds to the AFA 45Similar
Q3 12:26
3RD & 4
OWN 45
+30
31.7%
Cade Harris run for 30 yds to the FRES 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:43
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
35.3%
Quentin Hayes run for 5 yds to the FRES 20Similar
Q3 11:08
2ND & 5
OPP 20
+1
35.6%
Owen Allen run for 1 yd to the FRES 19Similar
Q3 10:30
3RD & 4
OPP 19
0
34.1%
Owen Allen run for no gain to the FRES 19Similar
Q3 9:46
4TH & 4
OPP 19
+37
37.3%
Matthew Dapore 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 10INT
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:3466% → 66%
Q3 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
33.8%
Elijah Gilliam run for 2 yds to the FRES 19Similar
Q3 9:03
2ND & 8
OWN 19
0
34.5%
Mikey Keene pass intercepted Blake Fletcher return for no gain to the FRES 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 11TD
12 plays · 42 yds · 6:2240% → 60%
Q3 8:52
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
40.1%
Dylan Carson run for 3 yds to the FRES 39Similar
Q3 8:18
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+9
40.5%
Quentin Hayes run for 9 yds to the FRES 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:32
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+6
42.4%
Dylan Carson run for 6 yds to the FRES 24Similar
Q3 6:53
2ND & 4
OPP 24
+3
42.9%
Dylan Carson run for 3 yds to the FRES 21Similar
Q3 6:25
3RD & 1
OPP 21
0
41.3%
Quentin Hayes run for no gain to the FRES 21Similar
Q3 5:39
4TH & 1
OPP 21
+2
40.1%
Quentin Hayes run for 2 yds to the FRES 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:16
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+12
44.1%
Dylan Carson run for 12 yds to the FRES 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
44.3%
Quentin Hayes run for 1 yd to the FRES 6Similar
Q3 3:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-1
44.9%
Dylan Carson run for a loss of 1 yard to the FRES 7Similar
Q3 3:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
43.3%
Quentin Hayes run for 5 yds to the FRES 2Similar
Q3 2:30
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
59.7%
Quentin Hayes run for 2 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 12DOWNS
6 plays · 39 yds · 1:5348% → 50%
Q3 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+32
52.1%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Jalen Moss for 32 yds to the AFA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:56
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
46.8%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Jalen Moss for no gain to the AFA 43Similar
Q3 1:18
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+5
47.8%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Bryson Donelson for 5 yds to the AFA 38Similar
Q3 0:42
3RD & 5
OPP 38
0
48.5%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:36
4TH & 5
OPP 38
+2
50.2%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Elijah Gilliam for 2 yds to the AFA 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 13TD
12 plays · 64 yds · 6:3840% → 97%
Q3 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
39.6%
Dylan Carson run for 4 yds to the AFA 40Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+5
41.5%
Dylan Carson run for 5 yds to the AFA 45Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+11
40.0%
Dylan Carson run for 11 yds to the FRES 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
42.8%
Owen Allen run for 6 yds to the FRES 38Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 38
+7
42.7%
Cameron Breier run for 7 yds to the FRES 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+9
43.1%
Cade Harris run for 9 yds to the FRES 22Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 22
+2
43.2%
Dylan Carson run for 2 yds to the FRES 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+8
43.2%
Kade Frew run for 8 yds to the FRES 12Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 12
+3
43.2%
Dylan Carson run for 3 yds to the FRES 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
43.2%
Dylan Carson run for 3 yds to the FRES 6Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
43.2%
Dylan Carson run for 5 yds to the FRES 1Similar
Q4 8:51
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
96.5%
Quentin Hayes run for 1 yd for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 14DOWNS
8 plays · 0 yds · 2:5210% → 7%
Q4 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-12
90.5%
(08:50) KEENE, Mikey pass deep to the left complete for 21 yards to MOSS, Jalen caught at the FS43 and advanced to the FS46 (GOFF, Camby), out of bounds, clock 08:45. PENALTY FS Personal Foul on NELSON, Braylen enforced half the distance from the goal, 12 yards from the FS25 to the FS13 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 8:37
1ST & 22
OWN 13
+18
90.8%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Tim Grear Jr. for 18 yds to the FRES 31Similar
Q4 8:13
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+8
89.6%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Tim Grear Jr. for 8 yds to the FRES 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-4
90.3%
Mikey Keene sacked by James Tomasi for a loss of 4 yards to the FRES 35Similar
Q4 7:20
2ND & 14
OWN 35
0
91.7%
Mikey Keene run for no gain to the FRES 35Similar
Q4 6:39
3RD & 14
OWN 35
+3
92.4%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Jake Tarwater for 3 yds to the FRES 38Similar
Q4 5:58
4TH & 11
OWN 38
-13
93.1%
Mikey Keene sacked by David Santiago for a loss of 13 yards to the FRES 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 15FG
12 plays · 6 yds · 3:5499% → 99%
Q4 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
98.5%
Dylan Carson run for 2 yds to the FRES 23Similar
Q4 5:09
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+3
98.5%
Dylan Carson run for 3 yds to the FRES 20Similar
Q4 4:26
3RD & 5
OPP 20
+4
98.7%
Dylan Carson run for 4 yds to the FRES 16Similar
Q4 3:44
4TH & 1
OPP 16
+2
98.7%
Dylan Carson run for 2 yds to the FRES 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:59
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-5
99.1%
Air Force Penalty, False Start (Tylor Latham) to the FRES 19Similar
Q4 2:36
1ST & 15
OPP 19
+1
99.1%
Kade Frew run for 1 yd to the FRES 18Similar
Q4 2:29
2ND & 14
OPP 18
0
99.1%
Quentin Hayes run for no gain to the FRES 18Similar
Q4 2:28
3RD & 14
OPP 18
-1
99.1%
Quentin Hayes run for a loss of 1 yard to the FRES 19Similar
Q4 1:56
4TH & 15
OPP 19
+36
99.3%
Matthew Dapore 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 16TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 1:162% → 26%
Q4 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
97.8%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Jalen Moss for 7 yds to the FRES 32Similar
Q4 1:37
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+6
97.7%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Richie Anderson for 6 yds to the FRES 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+16
97.7%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Jalen Moss for 16 yds to the AFA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+16
97.6%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Johnathan Arceneaux for 16 yds to the AFA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:08
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+9
96.5%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Mac Dalena for 9 yds to the AFA 21Similar
Q4 0:59
2ND & 1
OPP 21
+3
94.4%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Johnathan Arceneaux for 3 yds to the AFA 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:56
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
93.4%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:52
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+12
93.7%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Richie Anderson for 12 yds to the AFA 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
74.1%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Mac Dalena for 6 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 17END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 0:36
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-1
97.6%
(00:36) Kneel down by TEAM at FS50 (team loss of 1), clock 00:28.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 8:51
Quentin Hayes run for 1 yd for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK)
+53.3
TD · Q4 0:38
Mikey Keene pass complete to Mac Dalena for 6 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)
-19.6
TD · Q3 2:30
Quentin Hayes run for 2 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
+16.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com