2024 · Week 10 · Nov 2, 2024 · Mackay Stadium
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Win probability · NEV
modelNEV aheadCSU aheadconfidence bandkey playNEV scoreCSU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 5:20 · Sean Dollars run for 9 yds to the CSU 13 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 2:20: Justin Marshall run for 8 yds for a TD (Jordan Noyes KICK) — CSU win probability +4.3 pts (now 67%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
- FG · Q3 11:30: Jordan Noyes 21 yd FG GOOD — CSU win probability +8.3 pts (now 91%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 7:53: Brendon Lewis run for 3 yds for a TD (Kian Afrookhteh KICK) — NEV win probability +9.2 pts (now 11%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
- TD · Q4 12:16: Brendon Lewis run for 3 yds for a TD (Kian Afrookhteh KICK) — NEV win probability +6.4 pts (now 8%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
- TD · Q4 8:42: Avery Morrow run for 15 yds for a TD (Jordan Noyes KICK) — CSU win probability +3.5 pts (now 99%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
NEV made the numbers' call on 4 of 8CSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
- Q1 6:47NEV 4th & 9 at CSU 37, down 7Close callPunted · 44.5% before the snapGo for it44.6%32% to convertField goal44.5%−0.140% to makePuntTheir call44.5%−0.1average punt
- Q2 14:50NEV 4th & 11 at CSU 43, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.1% before the snapGo for it38.2%−0.227% to convertField goal37.9%−0.528% to makePuntTheir call38.4%average punt
- Q2 13:18CSU 4th & 6 at CSU 24, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.0% before the snapGo for it63.8%−0.738% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call64.5%average punt
- Q2 11:08NEV 4th & 4 at NEV 37, down 14Close callPunted · 34.5% before the snapGo for it34.5%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call34.3%−0.2average punt
- Q2 9:29CSU 4th & 6 at CSU 38, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.7% before the snapGo for it67.2%−0.340% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call67.4%average punt
- Q2 7:16NEV 4th & 7 at NEV 7, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.6% before the snapGo for it29.9%−0.634% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call30.4%average punt
- Q2 5:27CSU 4th & 12 at NEV 43, up 14Close callKicked a field goal · 69.8% before the snapGo for it69.0%−0.324% to convertField goalTheir call68.8%−0.528% to makePunt69.2%average punt
- Q2 0:39NEV 4th & 2 at CSU 2, down 17Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call26.1%48% to convertField goal25.6%−0.694% to makePunt22.1%−4.0average punt
- Q3 11:30CSU 4th & 3 at NEV 3, up 17Numbers favored go for it by 1.9 ptsKicked a field goal · 81.2% before the snapGo for it82.0%44% to convertField goalTheir call80.2%−1.993% to makePunt70.3%−11.8average punt
- Q3 3:23CSU 4th & 9 at NEV 36, up 21Close callPunted · 95.5% before the snapGo for it95.5%32% to convertField goal95.4%−0.142% to makePuntTheir call95.2%−0.2average punt
- Q4 14:17NEV 4th & 5 at CSU 31, down 21Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call4.7%41% to convertField goal4.6%−0.154% to makePunt3.7%−1.0average punt
- Q4 5:20NEV 4th & 2 at CSU 22, down 21Close callWent for it · 1.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.5%−0.357% to convertField goal1.8%72% to makePunt0.8%−1.0average punt
- Q4 4:22NEV 4th & 10 at CSU 13, down 21Close callWent for it · 1.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.4%−0.426% to convertField goal1.7%85% to makePunt0.8%−0.9average punt
- Q4 3:53CSU 4th & 1 at NEV 34, up 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call96.3%71% to convertField goal94.6%−1.647% to makePunt93.9%−2.3average punt
- Q4 1:11CSU 4th & 4 at NEV 17, up 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.5% before the snapGo for it97.2%−<0.147% to convertField goalTheir call97.2%80% to makePunt95.5%−1.7average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NEV made the numbers' call on 3 of 3CSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
- Q1 10:40CSU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call54.2%97% to makeGo for two54.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 2:20CSU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call60.4%97% to makeGo for two60.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:53NEV Touchdown, down 22 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call7.4%97% to makeGo for two7.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 12:16NEV Touchdown, down 15 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call9.8%97% to makeGo for two9.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 8:42CSU Touchdown, up 20 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call97.8%−<0.197% to makeGo for two97.8%45% to convert
- Q4 4:22NEV Touchdown, down 15 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call4.5%97% to makeGo for two4.3%−0.245% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartCSUDrive 1TD7 plays · 67 yds · 4:1459% → 60%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+11
40.9%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Caleb Goodie for 11 yds to the CSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-1
41.0%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi run for a loss of 1 yard to the CSU 43 Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi fumbled, recovered by CSU Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi B. Fowler-Nicolosi return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q1 12:57
3RD & 11
OWN 43
+41
41.5%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Dane Olson for 41 yds to the NEV 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 2PUNT9 plays · 35 yds · 3:4541% → 40%
Q1 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
40.7%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Cortez Braham Jr. for 7 yds to the NEV 35Similar
Q1 8:51
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+19
40.9%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Marshaun Brown for 19 yds to the CSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:08
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-5
41.0%
Caleb Ramseur run for a loss of 5 yards to the CSU 42 Caleb Ramseur fumbled, recovered by NEV Caleb Ramseur C. Ramseur return for 1 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 3TD9 plays · 80 yds · 4:2660% → 67%
Q1 6:02
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+12
39.9%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Jamari Person for 12 yds to the CSU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-10
39.2%
(05:26) MARSHALL, Justin rush to the right for a gain of 14 yards to the CSU45 (CRAWFORD, Kitan), clock 05:21. PENALTY CSU Holding on MORLEY, Tanner enforced 10 yards from the CSU31 to the CSU21 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 3:49
3RD & 13
OWN 28
+55
39.6%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Caleb Goodie for 55 yds Caleb Goodie fumbled, recovered by CSU Dane Olson D. Olson return for 4 yds for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 4PUNT6 plays · 35 yds · 2:2435% → 34%
Q1 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+20
34.6%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Cortez Braham Jr. for 20 yds to the NEV 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 5PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 1:3167% → 68%
NEVDrive 6PUNT6 plays · 6 yds · 2:0329% → 26%
Q2 11:43
3RD & 14
OWN 27
+10
26.2%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Sean Dollars for 10 yds to the NEV 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 7PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 1:3071% → 72%
NEVDrive 8PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 2:1025% → 26%
Q2 7:06
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-10
26.0%
(07:06) FOWLER-NICOLOSI, Brayden pass deep to the right complete for 41 yards to BROWN II, Vince caught at the NEV24 and advanced to the NEV0, TOUCHDOWN CSU, score nullified by penalty, clock 06:58 (Play was confirmed after review). PENALTY CSU Holding on MORLEY, Tanner enforced 10 yards from the NEV41 to the CSU49 [NH]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 9FG5 plays · -2 yds · 1:3174% → 79%
Q2 6:10
3RD & 18
OPP 49
+6
26.2%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Avery Morrow for 6 yds to the NEV 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 10DOWNS11 plays · 73 yds · 4:4322% → 23%
CSUDrive 11END OF HALF1 play · 4 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 12FUMBLE1 play · 7 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
21.3%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Marcus Bellon for 7 yds Marcus Bellon fumbled, recovered by CSU Gabe Kirschke G. Kirschke return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 13FG11 plays · 28 yds · 3:1582% → 91%
Q3 12:44
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+10
16.8%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Vince Brown II for 10 yds to the NEV 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:33
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+25
17.1%
NOYES, Jordan field goal attempt from 25 yards NO GOOD (right upright) [kick was spotted at NEV15], clock 11:33. PENALTY NEV Offsides on CRAWFORD, Kitan enforced half the distance from the goal, 4 yards from the NEV7 to the NEV3 [FG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 14TD6 plays · 75 yds · 3:282% → 11%
Q3 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+57
1.6%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Cortez Braham Jr. for 57 yds to the CSU 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 15PUNT10 plays · 36 yds · 4:2393% → 95%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 16TD14 plays · 95 yds · 6:005% → 8%
Q3 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+12
4.7%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Jaden Smith for 12 yds to the NEV 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:21
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+15
4.3%
(01:21) LEWIS, Brendon pass deep to the right intercepted by BLACKBURN, Henry at the CSU10 intended for SMITH, Jaden. Blackburn return for 0 yards to the CSU10, End of Play, clock 01:17. PENALTY CSU Pass Interference on ESSISSIMA, Isaiah enforced 15 yards to the CSU36 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-11
4.4%
Brendon Lewis sacked by Gabe Kirschke for a loss of 11 yards to the CSU 47Similar
Q4 14:58
3RD & 14
OPP 40
+9
3.8%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Marcus Bellon for 9 yds to the CSU 31Similar
Q4 14:17
4TH & 5
OPP 31
+12
3.8%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Cortez Braham Jr. for 12 yds to the CSU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 17TD7 plays · 59 yds · 3:3292% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 18TD17 plays · 77 yds · 4:121% → 2%
Q4 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+7
0.9%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Sean Dollars for 7 yds to the NEV 30Similar
Q4 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
0.9%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Cortez Braham Jr. for 6 yds to the NEV 45Similar
Q4 7:32
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+10
0.9%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Jaden Smith for 10 yds to the CSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:50
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+10
0.7%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Cortez Braham Jr. for 10 yds to the CSU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:22
4TH & 10
OPP 13
+13
1.6%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Jaden Smith for 13 yds for a TD (Kian Afrookhteh KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 19FG12 plays · 26 yds · 3:1198% → 99%
Q4 3:53
4TH & 1
OPP 34
+11
2.0%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Avery Morrow for 11 yds to the NEV 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 20END OF GAME6 plays · 27 yds · 1:111% → 1%
Q4 0:49
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+6
0.8%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Marshaun Brown for 6 yds to the NEV 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+17
0.7%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Sean Dollars for 17 yds to the CSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-15
0.7%
(00:25) LEWIS, Brendon pass short to the right complete for 5 yards to BROWN, Marshaun caught at the CSU41 and advanced to the CSU41 (VINCENT, Jett), clock 00:19. PENALTY NEV Face mask on WORLD, Isaiah enforced 15 yards from the CSU46 to the NEV39 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 0:06
1ST & 25
OWN 39
+13
0.7%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Cortez Braham Jr. for 13 yds to the CSU 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:53
Brendon Lewis run for 3 yds for a TD (Kian Afrookhteh KICK)
+9.2
FG · Q3 11:30
Jordan Noyes 21 yd FG GOOD
-8.3
TD · Q4 12:16
Brendon Lewis run for 3 yds for a TD (Kian Afrookhteh KICK)
+6.4