Try the model
CSU

Colorado State 38 at Nevada 21

NEV
2024 · Week 10 · Nov 2, 2024 · Mackay Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · NEV
modelNEV aheadCSU aheadconfidence bandkey playNEV scoreCSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 6:47 · Andrew Madrigal punt for 37 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+49.0+24.50−24.5−49.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 16Home team on offense−1.5Score differential−0.4Garbage-time factor−0.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.5Pregame prior−8.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 2:20: Justin Marshall run for 8 yds for a TD (Jordan Noyes KICK) — CSU win probability +4.3 pts (now 67%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 11:30: Jordan Noyes 21 yd FG GOOD — CSU win probability +8.3 pts (now 91%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 7:53: Brendon Lewis run for 3 yds for a TD (Kian Afrookhteh KICK) — NEV win probability +9.2 pts (now 11%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 12:16: Brendon Lewis run for 3 yds for a TD (Kian Afrookhteh KICK) — NEV win probability +6.4 pts (now 8%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:42: Avery Morrow run for 15 yds for a TD (Jordan Noyes KICK) — CSU win probability +3.5 pts (now 99%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NEV made the numbers' call on 4 of 8CSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
  1. Q1 6:47NEV 4th & 9 at CSU 37, down 7
    Close callPunted · 44.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.6%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    44.5%−0.1
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    44.5%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q2 14:50NEV 4th & 11 at CSU 43, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.2%−0.2
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    37.9%−0.5
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    38.4%
    average punt
  3. Q2 13:18CSU 4th & 6 at CSU 24, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.8%−0.7
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.5%
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:08NEV 4th & 4 at NEV 37, down 14
    Close callPunted · 34.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.3%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:29CSU 4th & 6 at CSU 38, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.2%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:16NEV 4th & 7 at NEV 7, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.9%−0.6
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:27CSU 4th & 12 at NEV 43, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 69.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.0%−0.3
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    68.8%−0.5
    28% to make
    Punt
    69.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:39NEV 4th & 2 at CSU 2, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    25.6%−0.6
    94% to make
    Punt
    22.1%−4.0
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:30CSU 4th & 3 at NEV 3, up 17
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.9 ptsKicked a field goal · 81.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.0%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    80.2%−1.9
    93% to make
    Punt
    70.3%−11.8
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:23CSU 4th & 9 at NEV 36, up 21
    Close callPunted · 95.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.5%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    95.4%−0.1
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    95.2%−0.2
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:17NEV 4th & 5 at CSU 31, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.7%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    4.6%−0.1
    54% to make
    Punt
    3.7%−1.0
    average punt
  12. Q4 5:20NEV 4th & 2 at CSU 22, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 1.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.5%−0.3
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    1.8%
    72% to make
    Punt
    0.8%−1.0
    average punt
  13. Q4 4:22NEV 4th & 10 at CSU 13, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 1.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.4%−0.4
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    1.7%
    85% to make
    Punt
    0.8%−0.9
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:53CSU 4th & 1 at NEV 34, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    94.6%−1.6
    47% to make
    Punt
    93.9%−2.3
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:11CSU 4th & 4 at NEV 17, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.2%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.2%
    80% to make
    Punt
    95.5%−1.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NEV made the numbers' call on 3 of 3CSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 10:40CSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:20CSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 7:53NEV Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 12:16NEV Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 8:42CSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.8%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.8%
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 4:22NEV Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CSUDrive 1TD
7 plays · 67 yds · 4:1459% → 60%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+11
40.9%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Caleb Goodie for 11 yds to the CSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-1
41.0%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi run for a loss of 1 yard to the CSU 43 Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi fumbled, recovered by CSU Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi B. Fowler-Nicolosi return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q1 13:36
2ND & 11
OWN 43
0
41.2%
Avery Morrow run for no gain to the CSU 43Similar
Q1 12:57
3RD & 11
OWN 43
+41
41.5%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Dane Olson for 41 yds to the NEV 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:16
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+7
41.3%
Avery Morrow run for 7 yds to the NEV 9Similar
Q1 11:29
2ND & 3
OPP 9
+2
41.4%
Avery Morrow run for 2 yds to the NEV 7Similar
Q1 10:40
3RD & 1
OPP 7
+7
40.1%
Avery Morrow run for 7 yds for a TD (Jordan Noyes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 2PUNT
9 plays · 35 yds · 3:4541% → 40%
Q1 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
40.7%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Cortez Braham Jr. for 7 yds to the NEV 35Similar
Q1 10:01
2ND & 3
OWN 35
+4
41.0%
Caleb Ramseur run for 4 yds to the NEV 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
40.8%
Caleb Ramseur run for 4 yds to the NEV 43Similar
Q1 8:51
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+19
40.9%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Marshaun Brown for 19 yds to the CSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:08
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-5
41.0%
Caleb Ramseur run for a loss of 5 yards to the CSU 42 Caleb Ramseur fumbled, recovered by NEV Caleb Ramseur C. Ramseur return for 1 ydsSimilar
Q1 7:33
2ND & 14
OPP 42
+5
40.5%
Brendon Lewis run for 5 yds to the CSU 37Similar
Q1 7:00
3RD & 9
OPP 37
0
40.6%
Brendon Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:47
4TH & 9
OPP 37
0
39.9%
Andrew Madrigal punt for 37 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 3TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 4:2660% → 67%
Q1 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
39.8%
Justin Marshall run for a loss of 1 yard to the CSU 19Similar
Q1 6:02
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+12
39.9%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Jamari Person for 12 yds to the CSU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-10
39.2%
(05:26) MARSHALL, Justin rush to the right for a gain of 14 yards to the CSU45 (CRAWFORD, Kitan), clock 05:21. PENALTY CSU Holding on MORLEY, Tanner enforced 10 yards from the CSU31 to the CSU21 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 5:16
1ST & 20
OWN 21
+4
39.5%
Justin Marshall run for 4 yds to the CSU 25Similar
Q1 4:32
2ND & 16
OWN 25
+3
39.5%
Justin Marshall run for 3 yds to the CSU 28Similar
Q1 3:49
3RD & 13
OWN 28
+55
39.6%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Caleb Goodie for 55 yds Caleb Goodie fumbled, recovered by CSU Dane Olson D. Olson return for 4 yds for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
37.5%
Avery Morrow run for 5 yds to the NEV 8Similar
Q1 2:20
2ND & 5
OPP 8
+8
33.3%
Justin Marshall run for 8 yds for a TD (Jordan Noyes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 35 yds · 2:2435% → 34%
Q1 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+20
34.6%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Cortez Braham Jr. for 20 yds to the NEV 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+16
35.0%
Brendon Lewis run for 16 yds to the CSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:48
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-1
35.0%
Caleb Ramseur run for a loss of 1 yard to the CSU 43Similar
Q1 0:05
2ND & 11
OPP 43
0
34.6%
Brendon Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 43
0
34.3%
Brendon Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:50
4TH & 11
OPP 43
0
34.0%
Guy Gillespie punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:3167% → 68%
Q2 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
32.7%
Avery Morrow run for 1 yd to the CSU 21Similar
Q2 14:04
2ND & 9
OWN 21
0
32.4%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:00
3RD & 9
OWN 21
+3
32.4%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Avery Morrow for 3 yds to the CSU 24Similar
Q2 13:18
4TH & 6
OWN 24
0
32.3%
Bryan Hansen punt for 45 yds , Marcus Bellon returns for no gain to the NEV 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 2:0329% → 26%
Q2 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-1
28.8%
Savion Red run for a loss of 1 yard to the NEV 30Similar
Q2 12:28
2ND & 11
OWN 30
+2
27.9%
Savion Red run for 2 yds to the NEV 32Similar
Q2 11:45
3RD & 9
OWN 32
-5
26.7%
Nevada Penalty, False Start (Marcus Bellon) to the NEV 27Similar
Q2 11:43
3RD & 14
OWN 27
+10
26.2%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Sean Dollars for 10 yds to the NEV 37Similar
Q2 11:08
4TH & 4
OWN 37
0
26.3%
Guy Gillespie punt for 29 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:3071% → 72%
Q2 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
29.3%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:52
2ND & 10
OWN 34
0
29.3%
Justin Marshall run for no gain to the CSU 34Similar
Q2 10:08
3RD & 10
OWN 34
+4
29.3%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Armani Winfield for 4 yds to the CSU 38Similar
Q2 9:29
4TH & 6
OWN 38
+18
28.4%
Bryan Hansen punt for 51 yds , Marcus Bellon returns for 18 yds to the NEV 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 2:1025% → 26%
Q2 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+9
24.7%
Sean Dollars run for 9 yds to the NEV 13Similar
Q2 8:31
2ND & 1
OWN 13
-1
24.0%
Brendon Lewis run for a loss of 1 yard to the NEV 12Similar
Q2 7:52
3RD & 2
OWN 12
-5
22.9%
Savion Red run for a loss of 5 yards to the NEV 7Similar
Q2 7:16
4TH & 7
OWN 7
0
22.9%
Guy Gillespie punt for 34 yds, downed at the NEV 41Similar
Q2 7:06
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-10
26.0%
(07:06) FOWLER-NICOLOSI, Brayden pass deep to the right complete for 41 yards to BROWN II, Vince caught at the NEV24 and advanced to the NEV0, TOUCHDOWN CSU, score nullified by penalty, clock 06:58 (Play was confirmed after review). PENALTY CSU Holding on MORLEY, Tanner enforced 10 yards from the NEV41 to the CSU49 [NH]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 9FG
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:3174% → 79%
Q2 6:58
1ST & 20
OWN 49
+2
26.3%
Avery Morrow run for 2 yds to the NEV 49Similar
Q2 6:16
2ND & 18
OPP 49
0
25.9%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:10
3RD & 18
OPP 49
+6
26.2%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Avery Morrow for 6 yds to the NEV 43Similar
Q2 5:27
4TH & 12
OPP 43
+60
20.6%
Jordan Noyes 60 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 10DOWNS
11 plays · 73 yds · 4:4322% → 23%
Q2 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
22.2%
Savion Red run for no gain to the NEV 25Similar
Q2 4:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
21.7%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Cortez Braham Jr. for 4 yds to the NEV 29Similar
Q2 4:03
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+12
21.9%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Cortez Braham Jr. for 12 yds to the NEV 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+34
23.3%
Brendon Lewis run for 34 yds to the CSU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:57
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+17
26.5%
Brendon Lewis run for 17 yds to the CSU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
26.7%
Savion Red run for 2 yds to the CSU 6Similar
Q2 1:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
26.1%
Savion Red run for 4 yds to the CSU 2Similar
Q2 1:19
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
24.0%
Savion Red run for no gain to the CSU 2Similar
Q2 0:39
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
0
23.3%
Brendon Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 11END OF HALF
1 play · 4 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+4
15.0%
Justin Marshall run for 4 yds to the CSU 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 12FUMBLE
1 play · 7 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
21.3%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Marcus Bellon for 7 yds Marcus Bellon fumbled, recovered by CSU Gabe Kirschke G. Kirschke return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 13FG
11 plays · 28 yds · 3:1582% → 91%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
18.2%
Justin Marshall run for 3 yds to the NEV 28Similar
Q3 14:04
2ND & 7
OPP 28
+3
17.6%
Jalen Dupree run for 3 yds to the NEV 25Similar
Q3 13:25
3RD & 4
OPP 25
+5
17.6%
Avery Morrow run for 5 yds to the NEV 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:44
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+10
16.8%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Vince Brown II for 10 yds to the NEV 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
16.3%
Dane Olson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
15.9%
Avery Morrow run for 3 yds to the NEV 7Similar
Q3 11:38
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
15.4%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:33
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+25
17.1%
NOYES, Jordan field goal attempt from 25 yards NO GOOD (right upright) [kick was spotted at NEV15], clock 11:33. PENALTY NEV Offsides on CRAWFORD, Kitan enforced half the distance from the goal, 4 yards from the NEV7 to the NEV3 [FG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 11:30
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+21
8.8%
Jordan Noyes 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 14TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 3:282% → 11%
Q3 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
2.1%
Sean Dollars run for 2 yds to the NEV 27Similar
Q3 10:44
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+6
1.9%
Sean Dollars run for 6 yds to the NEV 33Similar
Q3 10:15
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+4
1.8%
Savion Red run for 4 yds to the NEV 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+57
1.6%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Cortez Braham Jr. for 57 yds to the CSU 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
1.8%
Savion Red run for 3 yds to the CSU 3Similar
Q3 7:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
11.0%
Brendon Lewis run for 3 yds for a TD (Kian Afrookhteh KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 15PUNT
10 plays · 36 yds · 4:2393% → 95%
Q3 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+8
6.6%
Justin Marshall run for 8 yds to the CSU 36Similar
Q3 7:08
2ND & 2
OWN 36
+1
6.0%
Justin Marshall run for 1 yd to the CSU 37Similar
Q3 6:22
3RD & 1
OWN 37
+2
5.0%
Justin Marshall run for 2 yds to the CSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
4.4%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:35
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+24
4.4%
Jalen Dupree run for 24 yds to the NEV 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:54
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
4.1%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:47
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+5
4.1%
Avery Morrow run for 5 yds to the NEV 32Similar
Q3 4:15
3RD & 5
OPP 32
-4
3.7%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi run for a loss of 4 yards to the NEV 36Similar
Q3 3:23
4TH & 9
OPP 36
0
3.9%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi punt for 31 yds, downed at the NEV 5Similar
Q3 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 5
-3
4.7%
Nevada Penalty, False Start (Oliver Stuart) to the NEV 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 16TD
14 plays · 95 yds · 6:005% → 8%
Q3 3:16
1ST & 13
OWN 2
+15
4.7%
Sean Dollars run for 15 yds to the NEV 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+12
4.7%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Jaden Smith for 12 yds to the NEV 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+16
4.6%
Brendon Lewis run for 16 yds to the NEV 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
4.6%
Savion Red run for 4 yds to the NEV 49Similar
Q3 1:21
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+15
4.3%
(01:21) LEWIS, Brendon pass deep to the right intercepted by BLACKBURN, Henry at the CSU10 intended for SMITH, Jaden. Blackburn return for 0 yards to the CSU10, End of Play, clock 01:17. PENALTY CSU Pass Interference on ESSISSIMA, Isaiah enforced 15 yards to the CSU36 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-11
4.4%
Brendon Lewis sacked by Gabe Kirschke for a loss of 11 yards to the CSU 47Similar
Q3 0:34
2ND & 21
OPP 47
+7
4.1%
Brendon Lewis run for 7 yds to the CSU 40Similar
Q4 14:58
3RD & 14
OPP 40
+9
3.8%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Marcus Bellon for 9 yds to the CSU 31Similar
Q4 14:17
4TH & 5
OPP 31
+12
3.8%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Cortez Braham Jr. for 12 yds to the CSU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:39
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+9
3.5%
Brendon Lewis run for 9 yds to the CSU 10Similar
Q4 12:52
2ND & 1
OPP 10
+4
3.1%
Brendon Lewis run for 4 yds to the CSU 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
3.1%
Sean Dollars run for 3 yds to the CSU 3Similar
Q4 12:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
7.7%
Brendon Lewis run for 3 yds for a TD (Kian Afrookhteh KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 17TD
7 plays · 59 yds · 3:3292% → 99%
Q4 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+24
7.8%
Justin Marshall run for 24 yds to the NEV 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:29
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
6.8%
Avery Morrow run for 5 yds to the NEV 30Similar
Q4 10:47
2ND & 5
OPP 30
+2
6.2%
Justin Marshall run for 2 yds to the NEV 28Similar
Q4 9:54
3RD & 3
OPP 28
+4
5.0%
Avery Morrow run for 4 yds to the NEV 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+9
4.7%
Justin Marshall run for 9 yds to the NEV 15Similar
Q4 8:42
2ND & 1
OPP 15
+15
1.2%
Avery Morrow run for 15 yds for a TD (Jordan Noyes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 18TD
17 plays · 77 yds · 4:121% → 2%
Q4 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+7
0.9%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Sean Dollars for 7 yds to the NEV 30Similar
Q4 8:11
2ND & 3
OWN 30
+1
0.9%
Brendon Lewis run for 1 yd to the NEV 31Similar
Q4 8:04
3RD & 2
OWN 31
+8
0.9%
Sean Dollars run for 8 yds to the NEV 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
0.9%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Cortez Braham Jr. for 6 yds to the NEV 45Similar
Q4 7:32
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+10
0.9%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Jaden Smith for 10 yds to the CSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
0.7%
Sean Dollars run for 5 yds to the CSU 40Similar
Q4 6:50
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+10
0.7%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Cortez Braham Jr. for 10 yds to the CSU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:42
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+7
0.5%
Savion Red run for 7 yds to the CSU 23Similar
Q4 6:21
2ND & 3
OPP 23
+1
0.5%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Savion Red for 1 yd to the CSU 22Similar
Q4 5:59
3RD & 2
OPP 22
0
0.5%
Savion Red run for no gain to the CSU 22Similar
Q4 5:20
4TH & 2
OPP 22
+9
0.4%
Sean Dollars run for 9 yds to the CSU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:41
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
0.5%
Brendon Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:38
2ND & 10
OPP 13
0
0.5%
Brendon Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:27
3RD & 10
OPP 13
0
0.4%
Brendon Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:22
4TH & 10
OPP 13
+13
1.6%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Jaden Smith for 13 yds for a TD (Kian Afrookhteh KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 19FG
12 plays · 26 yds · 3:1198% → 99%
Q4 4:22
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-5
2.4%
Colorado State Penalty, Delay Of Game (TEAM) to the NEV 48Similar
Q4 4:20
1ST & 15
OPP 48
+9
2.5%
Avery Morrow run for 9 yds to the NEV 39Similar
Q4 4:15
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+4
2.3%
Avery Morrow run for 4 yds to the NEV 35Similar
Q4 4:00
3RD & 2
OPP 35
+1
2.2%
Avery Morrow run for 1 yd to the NEV 34Similar
Q4 3:53
4TH & 1
OPP 34
+11
2.0%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Avery Morrow for 11 yds to the NEV 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
1.6%
Avery Morrow run for 2 yds to the NEV 21Similar
Q4 2:26
2ND & 8
OPP 21
0
1.5%
Avery Morrow run for no gain to the NEV 21Similar
Q4 1:56
3RD & 8
OPP 21
+4
1.1%
Jalen Dupree run for 4 yds to the NEV 17Similar
Q4 1:11
4TH & 4
OPP 17
+35
1.2%
Jordan Noyes 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 20END OF GAME
6 plays · 27 yds · 1:111% → 1%
Q4 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
0.7%
Brendon Lewis run for 6 yds to the NEV 31Similar
Q4 0:49
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+6
0.8%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Marshaun Brown for 6 yds to the NEV 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+17
0.7%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Sean Dollars for 17 yds to the CSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-15
0.7%
(00:25) LEWIS, Brendon pass short to the right complete for 5 yards to BROWN, Marshaun caught at the CSU41 and advanced to the CSU41 (VINCENT, Jett), clock 00:19. PENALTY NEV Face mask on WORLD, Isaiah enforced 15 yards from the CSU46 to the NEV39 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 0:06
1ST & 25
OWN 39
+13
0.7%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Cortez Braham Jr. for 13 yds to the CSU 48Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 12
OPP 48
0
0.7%
Brendon Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:53
Brendon Lewis run for 3 yds for a TD (Kian Afrookhteh KICK)
+9.2
FG · Q3 11:30
Jordan Noyes 21 yd FG GOOD
-8.3
TD · Q4 12:16
Brendon Lewis run for 3 yds for a TD (Kian Afrookhteh KICK)
+6.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com