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SJSU

San José State 10 at Fresno State 33

FRES
2024 · Week 9 · Oct 26, 2024 · Valley Children's Stadium
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Win probability · FRES
modelFRES aheadSJSU aheadconfidence bandkey playFRES scoreSJSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDFGTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 2:44 · Elijah Gilliam run for 2 yds to the SJSU 15
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorBlowout margin
+35.0+17.50−17.5−35.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 130Home team on offense+27.0Pregame prior+6.8Score differential+17.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.0Garbage-time factor+9.3Blowout margin−0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:17: Elijah Gilliam run for 1 yd for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK) — FRES win probability +3.7 pts (now 72%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 11:14: Mikey Keene pass complete to Jalen Moss for 43 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK) — FRES win probability +9.1 pts (now 82%) (top driver: Lead backed by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. FG · Q2 2:19: Dylan Lynch 48 yd FG GOOD — FRES win probability +3.2 pts (now 85%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 11:03: Mikey Keene pass complete to Mac Dalena for 35 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK) — FRES win probability +8.8 pts (now 95%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 14:35: Mikey Keene pass complete to Jalen Moss for 6 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — FRES win probability +0.7 pts (now 100%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FRES made the numbers' call on 6 of 7SJSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 9:48FRES 4th & 10 at SJSU 15, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 65.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.6%−0.2
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    65.8%
    83% to make
    Punt
    64.8%−1.0
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:54SJSU 4th & 13 at SJSU 16, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.8%−0.6
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:22FRES 4th & 17 at FRES 34, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.0%−0.6
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:40SJSU 4th & 6 at SJSU 36, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.2%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:53SJSU 4th & 15 at SJSU 20, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.5%−1.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:15SJSU 4th & 2 at FRES 38, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    25.4%−1.5
    38% to make
    Punt
    25.4%−1.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:19FRES 4th & 10 at SJSU 30, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 76.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.2%−0.6
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.8%
    56% to make
    Punt
    74.1%−1.7
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:05SJSU 4th & 26 at SJSU 44, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.6%−1.2
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.9%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:41FRES 4th & 15 at FRES 29, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.5%−2.6
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.1%
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:55SJSU 4th & 4 at SJSU 31, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.8%−0.5
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.3%
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:32FRES 4th & 7 at FRES 28, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.3%−0.4
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.7%
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:44FRES 4th & 3 at SJSU 17, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.4%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    96.2%−0.3
    80% to make
    Punt
    93.3%−3.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:26FRES 4th & 1 at FRES 42, up 26
    Close callPunted · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.3%−0.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:43SJSU 4th & 4 at SJSU 35, down 26
    Close callWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.3%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.3%
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:08SJSU 4th & 19 at FRES 19, down 26
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−0.2
    10% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.5%
    77% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FRES made the numbers' call on 3 of 4SJSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 14:04SJSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:17FRES Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 11:14FRES Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 11:03FRES Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 14:35FRES Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SJSUDrive 1TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:5628% → 28%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
72.5%
Walker Eget pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
72.5%
Walker Eget pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:48
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+40
72.5%
Walker Eget pass complete to Justin Lockhart for 40 yds to the FRES 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:04
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+35
72.0%
Walker Eget pass complete to Nick Nash for 35 yds for a TD (Kyler Halvorsen KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 2FG
10 plays · 60 yds · 4:1672% → 71%
Q1 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
72.1%
Elijah Gilliam run for 2 yds to the FRES 27Similar
Q1 14:04
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+10
72.1%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Richie Anderson for 10 yds to the FRES 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
72.1%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:17
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+6
71.8%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Jordan Brown for 6 yds to the FRES 43Similar
Q1 12:48
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+20
71.6%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Jalen Moss for 20 yds to the SJSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:48
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+22
71.7%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Elijah Gilliam for 22 yds to the SJSU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:43
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
71.3%
Elijah Gilliam run for 1 yd to the SJSU 14Similar
Q1 11:16
2ND & 9
OPP 14
-2
71.2%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Bryson Donelson for a loss of 2 yards to the SJSU 16Similar
Q1 10:31
3RD & 11
OPP 16
+1
70.7%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Jalen Moss for 1 yd to the SJSU 15Similar
Q1 9:48
4TH & 10
OPP 15
+33
71.0%
Dylan Lynch 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:5029% → 29%
Q1 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
70.9%
Floyd Chalk IV run for 2 yds to the SJSU 21Similar
Q1 9:27
2ND & 8
OWN 21
0
70.8%
Walker Eget pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:02
3RD & 8
OWN 21
0
70.8%
Walker Eget pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:54
4TH & 8
OWN 21
-5
70.9%
San José State Penalty, Delay Of Game (TEAM) to the SJSU 16Similar
Q1 8:54
4TH & 13
OWN 16
0
70.9%
Trent Carrizosa punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Jalen Moss at the FRES 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 1:4871% → 70%
Q1 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
70.8%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Jalen Moss for 3 yds to the FRES 44Similar
Q1 8:31
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+3
70.9%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Bryson Donelson for 3 yds to the FRES 47Similar
Q1 7:58
3RD & 4
OWN 47
-13
70.6%
Mikey Keene sacked by Ethan Powell for a loss of 13 yards to the FRES 34Similar
Q1 7:22
4TH & 17
OWN 34
0
69.3%
Clay Lawrence punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Matthew Coleman at the SJSU 26Similar
Q1 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
69.7%
(06:59) EGET, Walker pass short to the right incomplete intended for NASH, Nick thrown to the SJS30. PENALTY FST Pass Interference on EMBRY, Jakari enforced at the spot of the foul for 6 yards to the SJS32 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 10 yds · 1:1531% → 31%
Q1 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
69.5%
Walker Eget pass complete to Nick Nash for 4 yds to the SJSU 36Similar
Q1 6:37
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+5
69.3%
Floyd Chalk IV run for 5 yds to the SJSU 41Similar
Q1 6:02
3RD & 1
OWN 41
0
69.0%
Walker Eget pass complete to Nick Nash for no gain to the SJSU 41Similar
Q1 5:50
4TH & 1
OWN 41
-5
69.1%
San José State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the SJSU 36Similar
Q1 5:40
4TH & 6
OWN 36
+2
69.5%
Trent Carrizosa punt for 54 yds , Jalen Moss returns for 2 yds to the FRES 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 6TD
14 plays · 88 yds · 5:5969% → 72%
Q1 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+4
68.8%
Johnathan Arceneaux run for 4 yds to the FRES 16Similar
Q1 5:01
2ND & 6
OWN 16
+5
68.7%
Joshua Wood run for 5 yds to the FRES 21Similar
Q1 4:14
3RD & 1
OWN 21
+3
68.1%
Elijah Gilliam run for 3 yds to the FRES 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+9
68.3%
Elijah Gilliam run for 9 yds to the FRES 33Similar
Q1 3:14
2ND & 1
OWN 33
+3
68.8%
Elijah Gilliam run for 3 yds to the FRES 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+14
68.4%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Raylen Sharpe for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:27
1ST & 10
50
-1
69.1%
Bryson Donelson run for a loss of 1 yard to the FRES 49Similar
Q1 1:57
2ND & 11
OWN 49
+1
68.2%
Mikey Keene run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 1:25
3RD & 10
50
+18
67.1%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Raylen Sharpe for 18 yds to the SJSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:46
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
68.7%
Elijah Gilliam run for 2 yds to the SJSU 30Similar
Q1 0:27
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+29
68.6%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Mac Dalena for 29 yds to the SJSU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
68.4%
Mikey Keene run for no gain to the SJSU 1Similar
Q2 14:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
72.1%
Elijah Gilliam run for 1 yd for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 1:2430% → 29%
Q2 14:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
70.3%
Floyd Chalk IV run for 4 yds to the SJSU 29Similar
Q2 14:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
69.9%
Walker Eget pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:36
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-9
70.5%
Walker Eget sacked for a loss of 9 yards to the SJSU 20 Walker Eget fumbled, recovered by SJSU , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 12:53
4TH & 15
OWN 20
+20
71.4%
Trent Carrizosa punt for 47 yds , Jalen Moss returns for 20 yds to the SJSU 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 8TD
4 plays · 47 yds · 0:5173% → 82%
Q2 12:05
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
72.7%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Bryson Donelson for 2 yds to the SJSU 45Similar
Q2 12:05
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+2
72.6%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Elijah Gilliam for 2 yds to the SJSU 43Similar
Q2 11:14
3RD & 6
OPP 43
+43
81.8%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Jalen Moss for 43 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 9INT
9 plays · 49 yds · 2:4125% → 26%
Q2 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+29
74.8%
Walker Eget pass complete to Justin Lockhart for 29 yds to the FRES 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:59
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
73.6%
Walker Eget pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:35
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+7
73.8%
Floyd Chalk IV run for 7 yds to the FRES 39Similar
Q2 10:35
3RD & 3
OPP 39
+1
73.4%
Walker Eget pass complete to Jabari Bates for 1 yd to the FRES 38Similar
Q2 9:15
4TH & 2
OPP 38
+12
74.9%
Walker Eget pass complete to Nick Nash for 12 yds to the FRES 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:58
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
73.1%
Walker Eget pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:39
2ND & 10
OPP 26
0
73.5%
Walker Eget pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:33
3RD & 10
OPP 26
-9
74.2%
Walker Eget pass intercepted Julian Neal return for 9 yds to the FRES 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 10FG
15 plays · 61 yds · 6:0383% → 85%
Q2 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+15
82.6%
San José State Penalty, Personal Foul (Noah McNeal-Franklin) to the FRES 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
83.1%
Mikey Keene run for 6 yds to the FRES 34Similar
Q2 7:38
2ND & 4
OWN 34
+3
83.5%
Bryson Donelson run for 3 yds to the FRES 37Similar
Q2 7:17
3RD & 1
OWN 37
+4
83.4%
Bryson Donelson run for 4 yds to the FRES 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
83.9%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Mac Dalena for 4 yds to the FRES 45Similar
Q2 6:13
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+1
84.1%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Raylen Sharpe for 1 yd to the FRES 46Similar
Q2 5:38
3RD & 5
OWN 46
+8
83.7%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Mac Dalena for 8 yds to the SJSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:38
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
84.6%
Elijah Gilliam run for 4 yds to the SJSU 42Similar
Q2 4:38
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+4
82.5%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Elijah Gilliam for 4 yds to the SJSU 38Similar
Q2 3:58
3RD & 2
OPP 38
+8
81.7%
Elijah Gilliam run for 8 yds to the SJSU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:58
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
81.2%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:00
2ND & 10
OPP 30
0
82.2%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:24
3RD & 10
OPP 30
0
82.0%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:19
4TH & 10
OPP 30
+48
85.2%
Dylan Lynch 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 11PUNT
9 plays · 19 yds · 1:1416% → 16%
Q2 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
83.7%
Walker Eget pass complete to Jackson Canaan for 4 yds to the SJSU 29Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
83.8%
Walker Eget pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:57
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+17
84.2%
Walker Eget pass complete to Justin Lockhart for 17 yds to the SJSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+14
83.3%
Walker Eget pass complete to Matthew Coleman for 14 yds to the FRES 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
82.3%
Walker Eget pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:14
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
82.1%
Walker Eget pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:11
3RD & 10
OPP 40
-16
82.8%
San José State Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Walker Eget) to the SJSU 44Similar
Q2 1:05
4TH & 26
OWN 44
0
84.5%
Trent Carrizosa punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Jalen Moss at the FRES 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 0:1888% → 87%
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
87.9%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:52
2ND & 10
OWN 34
-8
87.8%
Mikey Keene sacked by Taniela Latu for a loss of 8 yards to the FRES 26Similar
Q2 0:45
3RD & 18
OWN 26
+3
87.4%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Raylen Sharpe for 3 yds to the FRES 29Similar
Q2 0:41
4TH & 15
OWN 29
0
87.1%
Clay Lawrence punt for 33 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 13MISSED FG
6 plays · 37 yds · 0:3015% → 17%
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
85.2%
Walker Eget pass complete to Nick Nash for 6 yds to the SJSU 44Similar
Q2 0:17
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+7
84.3%
Walker Eget pass complete to Justin Lockhart for 7 yds to the FRES 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:09
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
84.3%
Walker Eget pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:09
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+24
84.8%
Walker Eget pass complete to TreyShun Hurry for 24 yds to the FRES 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:03
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+42
82.8%
Kyler Halvorsen 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 14TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:5785% → 95%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
84.6%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
84.6%
Elijah Gilliam run for 5 yds to the FRES 30Similar
Q3 14:37
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+12
84.3%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Jalen Moss for 12 yds to the FRES 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
86.2%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:38
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+6
86.1%
Joshua Wood run for 6 yds to the FRES 48Similar
Q3 13:04
3RD & 4
OWN 48
+5
86.0%
Mikey Keene run for 5 yds to the SJSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:38
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
86.8%
Elijah Gilliam run for 1 yd to the SJSU 46Similar
Q3 12:05
2ND & 9
OPP 46
+11
87.1%
Bryson Donelson run for 11 yds to the SJSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:17
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
86.5%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:03
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+35
95.3%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Mac Dalena for 35 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:087% → 6%
Q3 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
93.5%
Jabari Bates run for 9 yds to the SJSU 34Similar
Q3 10:42
2ND & 1
OWN 34
-3
93.1%
Jabari Bates run for a loss of 3 yards to the SJSU 31Similar
Q3 10:20
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
94.0%
Walker Eget pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:55
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
94.4%
Trent Carrizosa punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Jalen Moss at the FRES 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:1595% → 95%
Q3 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
95.3%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Bryson Donelson for 4 yds to the FRES 29Similar
Q3 9:21
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
95.1%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:07
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-1
95.0%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Elijah Gilliam for a loss of 1 yard to the FRES 28Similar
Q3 8:32
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
95.0%
Clay Lawrence punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Matthew Coleman at the SJSU 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 17INT
11 plays · 57 yds · 3:355% → 5%
Q3 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+25
94.9%
Floyd Chalk IV run for 25 yds to the FRES 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+8
94.8%
Floyd Chalk IV run for 8 yds to the FRES 36Similar
Q3 7:21
2ND & 2
OPP 36
0
94.7%
Walker Eget pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:06
3RD & 2
OPP 36
+5
94.9%
(07:06) BROWN, Emmett pass deep to the right incomplete intended for NASH, Nick thrown to the FST10. PENALTY FST Offsides on EMBRY, Jakari enforced 5 yards from the FST36 to the FST31 and results in a 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 6:58
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
94.5%
Floyd Chalk IV run for 2 yds to the FRES 29Similar
Q3 6:20
2ND & 8
OPP 29
+3
94.5%
Emmett Brown pass complete to Cooper Hoch for 3 yds to the FRES 26Similar
Q3 6:20
3RD & 5
OPP 26
-5
94.9%
San José State Penalty, False Start (Malik Williams) to the FRES 31Similar
Q3 5:40
3RD & 10
OPP 31
0
95.4%
Emmett Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:21
4TH & 10
OPP 31
+15
95.5%
(05:21) BROWN, Emmett pass deep to the left incomplete intended for COLEMAN, Matthew thrown to the FST0, clock 05:14. PENALTY FST Pass Interference on NEAL, Julian enforced 15 yards to the FST16 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 5:14
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+4
94.9%
Emmett Brown pass complete to Matthew Coleman for 4 yds to the FRES 12Similar
Q3 4:47
2ND & 6
OPP 12
-69
95.1%
Emmett Brown pass intercepted Al'zillion Hamilton return for 69 yds to the SJSU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 18DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:2196% → 96%
Q3 4:05
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
96.3%
Elijah Gilliam run for 2 yds to the SJSU 22Similar
Q3 4:05
2ND & 8
OPP 22
0
96.3%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:05
3RD & 8
OPP 22
+5
96.2%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Elijah Gilliam for 5 yds to the SJSU 17Similar
Q3 2:44
4TH & 3
OPP 17
+2
96.3%
Elijah Gilliam run for 2 yds to the SJSU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 19INT
4 plays · 24 yds · 1:263% → 3%
Q3 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+13
96.8%
Jabari Bates run for 13 yds to the SJSU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
97.0%
Walker Eget run for 7 yds to the SJSU 35Similar
Q3 1:55
2ND & 3
OWN 35
+4
97.1%
Jabari Bates run for 4 yds to the SJSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-35
97.3%
Walker Eget pass intercepted Cam Lockridge return for 35 yds to the SJSU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 20TD
4 plays · 20 yds · 1:1499% → 100%
Q3 0:49
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
98.7%
Raylen Sharpe run for 1 yd to the SJSU 19Similar
Q3 0:24
2ND & 9
OPP 19
+2
98.8%
Bryson Donelson run for 2 yds to the SJSU 17Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 17
+11
98.9%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Richie Anderson for 11 yds to the SJSU 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
99.5%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Jalen Moss for 6 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 21INT
4 plays · 16 yds · 0:230% → 1%
Q4 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.6%
Xavier Ward pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:29
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+16
99.5%
Xavier Ward pass complete to Sebastian Macaluso for 16 yds to the SJSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
99.5%
Xavier Ward pass intercepted Cam Lockridge return for no gain to the FRES 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:24100% → 100%
Q4 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-10
99.7%
Fresno State Penalty, Offensive Holding (Nathan Acevedo) to the FRES 32Similar
Q4 13:33
1ST & 11
OWN 32
-1
99.7%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Nathan Acevedo for a loss of 1 yard to the FRES 31Similar
Q4 13:03
2ND & 12
OWN 31
+2
99.7%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Jake Tarwater for 2 yds to the FRES 33Similar
Q4 12:44
3RD & 10
OWN 33
+9
99.7%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Mac Dalena for 9 yds to the FRES 42Similar
Q4 12:26
4TH & 1
OWN 42
0
99.7%
Clay Lawrence punt for 29 yds, downed at the SJSU 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 23DOWNS
6 plays · 6 yds · 1:160% → 0%
Q4 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+7
99.6%
Jabari Bates run for 7 yds to the SJSU 36Similar
Q4 11:30
2ND & 3
OWN 36
-10
99.7%
(11:30) EGET, Walker pass to the left complete for 14 yards to HURRY, Treyshun caught at the SJS45 and advanced to the SJS50 (EMBRY, Jakari), out of bounds. PENALTY SJS Holding on NOMANI, Sione enforced 10 yards from the SJS36 to the SJS26 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 11:23
2ND & 13
OWN 26
0
99.7%
Walker Eget pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:09
3RD & 13
OWN 26
+9
99.7%
Walker Eget pass complete to Jacob Stewart for 9 yds to the SJSU 35Similar
Q4 10:43
4TH & 4
OWN 35
0
99.7%
Walker Eget pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 24INT
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:13100% → 100%
Q4 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
99.8%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Nathan Acevedo for 2 yds to the SJSU 33Similar
Q4 10:12
2ND & 8
OPP 33
0
99.8%
Mikey Keene pass intercepted Robert Rahimi return for no gain to the SJSU 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 25FG
17 plays · 80 yds · 4:480% → 1%
Q4 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+10
99.8%
Emmett Brown pass complete to Nick Nash for 10 yds to the SJSU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
99.8%
Emmett Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:15
2ND & 10
OWN 11
+12
99.8%
Emmett Brown pass complete to Nick Nash for 12 yds to the SJSU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
99.8%
Emmett Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:34
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+7
99.8%
Floyd Chalk IV run for 7 yds to the SJSU 30Similar
Q4 8:11
3RD & 3
OWN 30
+12
99.8%
Emmett Brown pass complete to Nick Nash for 12 yds to the SJSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
99.8%
Emmett Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:26
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
99.8%
Emmett Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:22
3RD & 10
OWN 42
+25
99.8%
Emmett Brown pass complete to TreyShun Hurry for 25 yds to the FRES 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:03
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
99.8%
Emmett Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:44
2ND & 10
OPP 33
0
99.8%
Emmett Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:39
3RD & 10
OPP 33
+23
99.8%
Floyd Chalk IV run for 23 yds to the FRES 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+6
99.8%
Floyd Chalk IV run for 6 yds to the FRES 4Similar
Q4 5:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
99.8%
Emmett Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:28
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
-15
99.8%
(05:28) BROWN, Emmett pass short up the middle complete for 4 yards to LOCKHART, Justin caught at the FST0 and advanced to the FST0, TOUCHDOWN SJS, score nullified by penalty, clock 05:22 (Play was confirmed after review). PENALTY SJS Pass Interference on NASH, Nick enforced 15 yards to the FST19 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 5:22
3RD & GOAL
OPP 19
0
99.8%
Emmett Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:08
4TH & GOAL
OPP 19
+37
99.5%
Kyler Halvorsen 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 26END OF GAME
14 plays · 44 yds · 4:03100% → 100%
Q4 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+4
99.8%
Bryson Donelson run for 4 yds to the FRES 9Similar
Q4 5:02
2ND & 6
OWN 9
+6
99.8%
Joshua Wood run for 6 yds to the FRES 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
99.8%
Bryson Donelson run for 2 yds to the FRES 17Similar
Q4 4:12
2ND & 8
OWN 17
+4
99.8%
Elijah Gilliam run for 4 yds to the FRES 21Similar
Q4 4:07
3RD & 4
OWN 21
+6
99.8%
Johnathan Arceneaux run for 6 yds to the FRES 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+11
99.8%
Johnathan Arceneaux run for 11 yds to the FRES 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
99.8%
Johnathan Arceneaux run for 4 yds to the FRES 42Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+4
99.8%
Johnathan Arceneaux run for 4 yds to the FRES 46Similar
Q4 1:44
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+4
99.8%
Johnathan Arceneaux run for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:03
1ST & 10
50
-1
99.8%
(01:03) [NHSG] Kneel down by KEENE, Mikey at FST49 (team loss of 1).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 11:14
Mikey Keene pass complete to Jalen Moss for 43 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)
+9.1
TD · Q3 11:03
Mikey Keene pass complete to Mac Dalena for 35 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)
+8.8
TD · Q2 14:17
Elijah Gilliam run for 1 yd for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)
+3.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com