New Mexico at Utah State (50-45)

UNM

New Mexico 50 at Utah State 45

USU

2024 · Week 8 · Oct 19, 2024 · Maverik Stadium

Speed4x

View as

Download image

Win probability · USU

modelUSU aheadUNM aheadconfidence bandkey playUSU scoreUNM score

What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went

Q1 11:30 · R.Faison rushed for 1 yards. Tackled by NM at UTS 47. PENALTY on NM-B.Taylor, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, accepted.

Driver values - Δ win prob, pts

Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin

This game in five plays

KEY PLAY · Q1 9:39: S.Petras pass complete. Catch made by B.Lane for 10 yards. Tackled by NM at NM 13. — USU win probability +0.7 pts (now 56%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
TD · Q1 8:22: S.Petras rushed for 2 yards. TOUCHDOWN. — USU win probability +2.7 pts (now 59%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
KEY PLAY · Q1 8:13: N.Rogers rushed for 5 yards. Tackled by UTS at NM 23. — UNM win probability +0.8 pts (now 42%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
TD · Q1 3:06: R.Faison rushed for 6 yards. TOUCHDOWN. — USU win probability +5.6 pts (now 67%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
KEY PLAY · Q1 3:02: D.Dampier pass complete. Catch made by L.Wysong for 11 yards. Tackled by UTS at NM 36. — UNM win probability +1.9 pts (now 35%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).

Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs

USU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1UNM made the numbers' call on 1 of 1

Q1 11:30USU 4th & 2 at USU 46, tied
Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 50.1% before the snap
Go for itTheir call
50.1%
57% to convert
Field goal
Out of range
Punt
50.1%−0.1
average punt
Q1 6:19UNM 4th & 7 at UNM 21, down 7
Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.2% before the snap
Go for it
45.1%−0.3
35% to convert
Field goal
Out of range
PuntTheir call
45.4%
average punt

After touchdowns: kick or go for two?

USU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2

Q1 8:22USU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
KickTheir call
52.8%
97% to make
Go for two
52.8%−<0.1
45% to convert
Q1 3:06USU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
KickTheir call
61.6%
97% to make
Go for two
61.6%−<0.1
45% to convert

Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump

Download drive chart

UNMDrive 1INT

4 plays · 9 yds · 1:0945% → 45%

Q1 15:00

1ST & 10

OWN 25

+12

54.9%

D.Dampier pass complete. Catch made by L.Wysong for 12 yards. Tackled by UTS at NM 37.Similar

Q1 14:30

1ST & 10

OWN 37

-3

54.9%

D.Dampier pass complete. Catch made by L.Wysong for -3 yards. Tackled by UTS at NM 34.Similar

Q1 13:57

2ND & 13

OWN 34

55.0%

D.Dampier steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for L.Wysong.Similar

Q1 13:51

3RD & 13

OWN 34

55.0%

D.Dampier pass INTERCEPTED at UTS 42. Intercepted by A.Dickerson at UTS 42. Tackled by NM at UTS 42.Similar

own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0

USUDrive 2TD

15 plays · 73 yds · 5:2255% → 59%

Q1 13:44

1ST & 10

OWN 27

55.0%

S.Petras pass complete. Catch made by O.Tia for 6 yards. Tackled by NM at UTS 33.Similar

Q1 13:14

2ND & 4

OWN 33

55.1%

R.Faison rushed for 5 yards. Tackled by NM at UTS 38.Similar

Q1 12:18

1ST & 10

OWN 38

55.3%

S.Petras pass complete. Catch made by J.Royals for 7 yards. Tackled by at UTS 45.Similar

Q1 12:01

2ND & 3

OWN 45

55.5%

S.Petras steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for B.Lane.Similar

Q1 11:56

3RD & 3

OWN 45

55.4%

S.Petras rushed for 1 yards. Tackled by NM at UTS 46.Similar

Q1 11:30

4TH & 2

OWN 46

55.3%

R.Faison rushed for 1 yards. Tackled by NM at UTS 47. PENALTY on NM-B.Taylor, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, accepted.Similar

Q1 11:29

1ST & 10

OPP 38

55.7%

R.Faison rushed for yards. Tackled by NM at NM 21. PENALTY on UTS-T.Andersen, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, accepted. No Play.Similar

Q1 10:46

1ST & 20

OPP 48

-4

55.6%

R.Faison rushed for -4 yards. Tackled by NM at UTS 48.Similar

Q1 10:30

2ND & 24

OWN 48

+11

55.5%

S.Petras pass complete. Catch made by R.Faison for 11 yards. Tackled by NM at NM 41.Similar

Q1 10:00

3RD & 13

OPP 41

+18

55.5%

S.Petras pass complete. Catch made by J.Royals for 18 yards. Tackled by NM at NM 23.Similar

Q1 9:39

1ST & 10

OPP 23

+10

56.2%

S.Petras pass complete. Catch made by B.Lane for 10 yards. Tackled by NM at NM 13.Similar

Q1 9:07

1ST & 10

OPP 13

56.4%

R.Faison rushed for 4 yards. Tackled by NM at NM 9.Similar

Q1 8:59

2ND & 6

OPP 9

56.3%

R.Faison rushed for 5 yards. Tackled by NM at NM 4.Similar

Q1 8:31

3RD & 1

OPP 4

56.1%

S.Petras rushed for 2 yards. Tackled by NM at NM 2.Similar

Q1 8:22

1ST & GOAL

OPP 2

58.8%

S.Petras rushed for 2 yards. TOUCHDOWN.Similar

own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0

UNMDrive 3PUNT

5 plays · 3 yds · 1:5442% → 41%

Q1 8:13

1ST & 10

OWN 18

58.0%

N.Rogers rushed for 5 yards. Tackled by UTS at NM 23.Similar

Q1 7:50

2ND & 5

OWN 23

58.1%

E.Sanders rushed for 3 yards. Tackled by UTS at NM 26.Similar

Q1 7:06

3RD & 2

OWN 26

58.5%

N.Rogers rushed for 0 yards. Tackled by UTS at NM 26.Similar

Q1 6:28

4TH & 2

OWN 26

59.2%

PENALTY on NM-NM, False Start, 5 yards, accepted. No Play.Similar

Q1 6:19

4TH & 7

OWN 21

+37

59.4%

A.Rodriguez punts 37 yards to UTS 42, Center-B.Durkin. K.Davis returned punt from the UTS 42. Tackled by NM at UTS 43.Similar

own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0

USUDrive 4TD

7 plays · 58 yds · 3:0060% → 67%

Q1 6:06

1ST & 10

OWN 42

59.7%

R.Faison rushed for 4 yards. Tackled by NM at UTS 46.Similar

Q1 5:43

2ND & 6

OWN 46

+24

60.0%

S.Petras pass complete. Catch made by J.Royals for 24 yards. Tackled by NM at NM 30.Similar

Q1 5:23

1ST & 10

OPP 30

+11

60.4%

S.Petras pass complete. Catch made by J.Sterzer for 11 yards. Tackled by NM at NM 19.Similar

Q1 5:01

1ST & 10

OPP 19

60.6%

R.Faison rushed for 3 yards. Tackled by NM at NM 16.Similar

Q1 4:08

2ND & 7

OPP 16

61.1%

R.Faison rushed for 5 yards. Tackled by NM at NM 11.Similar

Q1 3:30

3RD & 2

OPP 11

61.0%

R.Faison rushed for 5 yards. Tackled by NM at NM 6.Similar

Q1 3:06

1ST & GOAL

OPP 6

66.7%

R.Faison rushed for 6 yards. TOUCHDOWN.Similar

own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0

UNMDrive 5PUNT

4 plays · 14 yds · 0:5735% → 35%

Q1 3:02

1ST & 10

OWN 25

+11

64.8%

D.Dampier pass complete. Catch made by L.Wysong for 11 yards. Tackled by UTS at NM 36.Similar

Q1 2:33

1ST & 10

OWN 36

64.4%

E.Sanders rushed for 3 yards. Tackled by UTS at NM 39.Similar

Q1 2:05

2ND & 7

OWN 39

64.6%

D.Dampier steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for L.Wysong.Similar

own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0

Biggest swings

End of Game · Final

Game over.

-64.8

TD · Q1 3:06

R.Faison rushed for 6 yards. TOUCHDOWN.

+5.6

TD · Q1 8:22

S.Petras rushed for 2 yards. TOUCHDOWN.

+2.7