2024 · Week 8 · Oct 18, 2024 · Mackay Stadium
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Win probability · NEV
modelNEV aheadFRES aheadconfidence bandkey playNEV scoreFRES score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:55 · Mikey Keene run for 2 yds to the NEV 44 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 9:49: Brendon Lewis pass complete to Nate Burleson II for 46 yds for a TD (Matthew Killam KICK) — NEV win probability +6.8 pts (now 50%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
- TD · Q2 5:45: Elijah Gilliam run for 4 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK) — FRES win probability +8.5 pts (now 64%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:01: Brendon Lewis run for 2 yds for a TD (Matthew Killam KICK) — NEV win probability +12.6 pts (now 56%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
- TD · Q3 4:13: Joshua Wood run for 7 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK) — FRES win probability +22.7 pts (now 65%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 3:16: Elijah Gilliam run for a loss of 2 yards to the FRES 43 — FRES win probability +12.0 pts (now 78%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
NEV made the numbers' call on 6 of 8FRES made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
- Q1 5:42FRES 4th & 6 at NEV 26, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 50.4% before the snapGo for it50.3%−<0.139% to convertField goalTheir call50.3%64% to makePunt49.1%−1.2average punt
- Q1 3:06NEV 4th & 7 at NEV 49, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.6% before the snapGo for it48.7%−0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call48.8%average punt
- Q2 8:15FRES 4th & 4 at FRES 31, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.8% before the snapGo for it46.8%−0.548% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call47.2%average punt
- Q2 6:44NEV 4th & 9 at NEV 28, up 4Close callWent for it · 52.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call51.5%−0.830% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt52.3%average punt
- Q2 1:15NEV 4th & 1 at FRES 29, down 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 46.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call47.5%71% to convertField goal45.8%−1.758% to makePunt40.9%−6.7average punt
- Q3 13:04FRES 4th & 2 at FRES 49, down 4Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 44.7% before the snapGo for it45.2%56% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call43.8%−1.4average punt
- Q3 6:40NEV 4th & 8 at FRES 49, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.6% before the snapGo for it62.8%−0.934% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call63.7%average punt
- Q3 2:41NEV 4th & 18 at NEV 15, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.2% before the snapGo for it37.1%−6.012% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call43.1%average punt
- Q3 1:17NEV 4th & 25 at NEV 37, down 3Numbers favored punt by 6.0 ptsWent for it · 41.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call36.7%−6.07% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt42.7%average punt
- Q4 14:16FRES 4th & 2 at NEV 19, up 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call61.1%56% to convertField goal59.1%−2.077% to makePunt45.7%−15.5average punt
- Q4 11:49FRES 4th & 6 at NEV 6, up 3Close callWent for it · 62.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call60.9%−0.631% to convertField goal61.5%91% to makePunt45.0%−16.6average punt
- Q4 7:36NEV 4th & 14 at NEV 13, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.1% before the snapGo for it29.9%−4.417% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call34.3%average punt
- Q4 5:33FRES 4th & 9 at NEV 47, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.0% before the snapGo for it69.8%−0.332% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call70.1%average punt
- Q4 3:18NEV 4th & 13 at NEV 34, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.8% before the snapGo for it24.7%−1.320% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call26.0%average punt
- Q4 1:55FRES 4th & 1 at NEV 46, up 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 83.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call84.9%70% to convertField goal73.4%−11.423% to makePunt76.7%−8.2average punt
- Q4 0:11FRES 4th & 9 at NEV 43, up 3Numbers favored field goal by 4.4 ptsPunted · 86.5% before the snapGo for it86.8%−2.832% to convertField goal89.6%28% to makePuntTheir call85.2%−4.4average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NEV made the numbers' call on 3 of 3FRES made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q1 11:03NEV Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call46.4%97% to makeGo for two46.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 12:32FRES Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call53.9%97% to makeGo for two53.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 9:49NEV Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call52.1%97% to makeGo for two52.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 5:45FRES Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call54.5%97% to makeGo for two54.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:01NEV Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call57.2%97% to makeGo for two57.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 4:13FRES Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call56.7%97% to makeGo for two56.4%−0.345% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartNEVDrive 1TD7 plays · 75 yds · 3:5738% → 42%
Q1 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-1
38.4%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Chubba Purdy for a loss of 1 yard to the NEV 36Similar
Q1 12:59
3RD & 11
OWN 36
+55
38.7%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Jaden Smith for 55 yds to the FRES 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
39.9%
(11:31) QB Keeper LEWIS, Brendon rush to the right for a gain of 2 yards to the FST3 (NOMURA, Tuasivi;LANGLEY, Malachi), clock 11:28. PENALTY FST Offsides on BAUMGARTNER, Kavika enforced half the distance from the goal, 2 yards from the FST5 to the FST3 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 2FG10 plays · 49 yds · 5:2059% → 58%
Q1 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
40.9%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Mac Dalena for 4 yds to the FRES 29Similar
Q1 9:51
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+3
41.7%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Elijah Gilliam for 3 yds to the FRES 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+13
42.0%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Mac Dalena for 13 yds to the FRES 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+12
41.9%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Mac Dalena for 12 yds to the NEV 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 3PUNT7 plays · 26 yds · 2:2843% → 44%
Q1 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+9
42.7%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Jaden Smith for 9 yds to the NEV 32Similar
Q1 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-4
44.2%
Marcus Bellon run for 6 yds to the FRES 48 Nevada Penalty, Illegal Block (Jaden Smith) to the NEV 41Similar
Q1 3:06
4TH & 7
OWN 49
0
43.7%
Guy Gillespie punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Jalen Moss at the FRES 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 4TD13 plays · 86 yds · 5:3356% → 62%
Q1 1:49
3RD & 5
OWN 19
+16
44.9%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Mac Dalena for 16 yds to the FRES 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-12
43.8%
Mikey Keene sacked by Keyshawn Cobb for a loss of 12 yards to the FRES 23Similar
Q1 0:45
2ND & 22
OWN 23
+27
44.9%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Raylen Sharpe for 27 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 5TD5 plays · 68 yds · 1:5941% → 50%
Q2 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
41.2%
(11:48) QB Keeper LEWIS, Brendon rush up the middle for a gain of 4 yards to the NEV36 (CLARK, Dean), clock 11:40. PENALTY Before the snap, FST Illegal Substitution enforced 5 yards from the NEV32 to the NEV37. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 10:54
2ND & 2
OWN 40
+5
43.1%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Savion Red for 5 yds to the NEV 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:49
2ND & 1
OPP 46
+46
49.9%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Nate Burleson II for 46 yds for a TD (Matthew Killam KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 6PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 1:3353% → 51%
NEVDrive 7DOWNS5 plays · -11 yds · 1:2750% → 49%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 8TD3 plays · 16 yds · 0:5755% → 64%
Q2 6:08
2ND & 8
OPP 14
+10
44.9%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Nathan Acevedo for 10 yds to the NEV 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 9TD19 plays · 83 yds · 5:3240% → 56%
Q2 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+8
40.9%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Jaden Smith for 8 yds to the NEV 39Similar
Q2 3:16
3RD & 6
OWN 35
+15
40.2%
Fresno State Penalty, Targeting on CLARK, Dean enforced (Dean Clark) to the FRES 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:35
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+4
45.1%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Savion Red for 4 yds to the FRES 31Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 7
OPP 15
-8
42.8%
Brendon Lewis run for 2 yds to the FRES 13 Nevada Penalty, Offensive Holding (Marcus Bellon) to the FRES 24Similar
Q2 0:55
2ND & 16
OPP 24
+15
41.0%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Marcus Bellon for 15 yds to the FRES 9Similar
Q2 0:22
3RD & 1
OPP 9
+4
41.1%
WOODS, Ky rush to the right for a gain of 1 yard to the FST8 (EMBRY, Jakari), clock 00:22. PENALTY Before the snap, FST Illegal Substitution enforced 4 yards from the FST9 to the FST5 and results in a 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 10END OF HALF1 play · 1 yds · 0:0045% → 45%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 11PUNT5 plays · 24 yds · 1:5647% → 48%
NEVDrive 12PUNT14 plays · 41 yds · 6:2155% → 62%
Q3 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+8
54.8%
Chubba Purdy pass complete to Jaden Smith for 8 yds to the NEV 18Similar
Q3 10:22
3RD & 5
OWN 27
-5
58.2%
(10:22) LEWIS, Brendon pass to the right complete for 8 yards to SMITH, Jaden caught at the NEV33 and advanced to the NEV35 (LOCKRIDGE, Cameron;JACKSON, Phoenix), clock 10:17. PENALTY NEV Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on BRAHAM, Cortez enforced 5 yards from the NEV27 to the NEV22 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 9:54
3RD & 10
OWN 22
+15
57.8%
(09:54) LEWIS, Brendon pass deep to the left incomplete intended for SMITH, Jaden thrown to the FST46, clock 09:51. PENALTY FST Pass Interference on NEAL, Julian enforced 15 yards to the NEV37 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 9:05
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+3
62.1%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Jaden Smith for 3 yds to the NEV 43Similar
Q3 8:28
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+6
61.6%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Patrick Garwo III for 6 yds to the NEV 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 13TD6 plays · 95 yds · 2:2736% → 65%
NEVDrive 14PUNT4 plays · -8 yds · 1:2444% → 41%
FRESDrive 15INT1 play · 0 yds · 0:0063% → 63%
Q3 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
37.2%
Mikey Keene pass intercepted Drue Watts return for no gain to the FRES 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 16DOWNS4 plays · -25 yds · 1:1249% → 42%
FRESDrive 17DOWNS9 plays · 21 yds · 4:1465% → 63%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 18PUNT7 plays · 7 yds · 4:0542% → 37%
Q4 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+5
41.8%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Jaden Smith for 5 yds to the NEV 11Similar
Q4 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-9
41.0%
Brendon Lewis sacked by Malachi Langley for a loss of 9 yards to the NEV 8Similar
Q4 7:36
4TH & 14
OWN 13
0
37.4%
Guy Gillespie punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Jalen Moss at the NEV 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 19PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 1:5771% → 71%
Q4 6:17
3RD & 2
OPP 40
-7
26.7%
Mikey Keene sacked by Henry Ikahihifo for a loss of 7 yards to the NEV 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 20PUNT6 plays · 30 yds · 2:1538% → 34%
FRESDrive 21PUNT14 plays · 12 yds · 3:0578% → 94%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 4:13
Joshua Wood run for 7 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)
-22.7
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-14.5
TD · Q2 0:01
Brendon Lewis run for 2 yds for a TD (Matthew Killam KICK)
+12.6