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UNLV

UNLV 50 at Utah State 34

USU
2024 · Week 7 · Oct 11, 2024 · Maverik Stadium
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Win probability · USU
modelUSU aheadUNLV aheadconfidence bandkey playUSU scoreUNLV score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 11:10 · Stephen Kotsanlee punt for 41 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+53.0+26.50−26.5−53.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 10Home team on offense−0.6Pregame prior−37.8Score differential−0.2Garbage-time factor−0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 1:11: Rahsul Faison run for 20 yds for a TD (Tanner Cragun KICK) — USU win probability +3.2 pts (now 16%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 11:56: Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Casey Cain for 18 yds for a TD (Caden Chittenden KICK) — UNLV win probability +5.3 pts (now 91%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 9:24: Kylin James run for 22 yds for a TD (Caden Chittenden KICK) — UNLV win probability +2.9 pts (now 94%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 11:36: Spencer Petras pass complete to Broc Lane for 6 yds for a TD (Tanner Cragun KICK) — USU win probability +4.4 pts (now 5%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:18: Herschel Turner run for 3 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — USU win probability +2.5 pts (now 3%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8UNLV made the numbers' call on 4 of 8
  1. Q1 11:10USU 4th & 5 at USU 46, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.7%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:24UNLV 4th & 6 at USU 40, up 7
    Close callPunted · 85.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    85.9%−0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    85.9%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:01USU 4th & 19 at USU 11, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.1%−0.4
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:08UNLV 4th & 1 at USU 40, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 85.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    85.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    85.1%−0.4
    34% to make
    Punt
    85.1%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:35UNLV 4th & 5 at USU 15, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 83.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.1%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.3%
    83% to make
    Punt
    81.0%−2.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:29USU 4th & 5 at UNLV 49, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.6%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    9.5%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:37UNLV 4th & 4 at USU 28, up 24
    Close callKicked a field goal · 93.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.9%−0.1
    60% to make
    Punt
    91.9%−1.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:05USU 4th & 12 at USU 23, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.2%−1.0
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.3%
    average punt
  9. Q3 5:23UNLV 4th & 3 at UNLV 42, up 26
    Close callPunted · 98.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:05USU 4th & 10 at USU 19, down 26
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.8%−0.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.1%
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:37UNLV 4th & 23 at USU 31, up 26
    Close callWent for it · 98.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.4%−0.4
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    98.8%
    54% to make
    Punt
    98.6%−0.2
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:34USU 4th & 1 at USU 42, down 26
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.7%−0.3
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:01UNLV 4th & 14 at UNLV 32, up 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.0%−1.2
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:31UNLV 4th & 18 at USU 18, up 19
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.4%−0.5
    11% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.9%
    79% to make
    Punt
    97.6%−1.3
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:02USU 4th & 1 at UNLV 29, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    0.7%−0.2
    58% to make
    Punt
    0.4%−0.5
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:38USU 4th & 6 at UNLV 12, down 22
    Close callWent for it · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.7%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    0.8%
    86% to make
    Punt
    0.4%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5UNLV made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 13:50UNLV Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:40UNLV Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:11USU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    16.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 11:56UNLV Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 9:24UNLV Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 1:53UNLV Touchdown, up 33 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 12:09USU Touchdown, down 28 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 10:26UNLV Touchdown, up 33 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    98.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 7:10USU Touchdown, down 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 11:36USU Touchdown, down 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.8%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.8%
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 1:18USU Touchdown, down 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    2.2%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    2.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNLVDrive 1TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:0889% → 88%
Q1 14:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+37
11.3%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for 37 yds to the USU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:27
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+33
11.5%
Kylin James run for 33 yds to the USU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
11.7%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
11.6%
Kylin James run for 5 yds for a TD (Caden Chittenden KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 2:4112% → 12%
Q1 13:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
11.6%
Rahsul Faison run for 9 yds to the USU 34Similar
Q1 13:31
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+7
11.7%
Rahsul Faison run for 7 yds to the USU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
11.9%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Herschel Turner for 6 yds to the USU 47Similar
Q1 12:26
2ND & 4
OWN 47
+2
12.1%
Herschel Turner run for 2 yds to the USU 49Similar
Q1 12:07
3RD & 2
OWN 49
-3
12.2%
Herschel Turner run for a loss of 3 yards to the USU 46Similar
Q1 11:10
4TH & 5
OWN 46
0
12.3%
Stephen Kotsanlee punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 47 yds · 1:4688% → 87%
Q1 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+43
12.3%
Jai'Den Thomas run for 43 yds to the USU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:52
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
12.2%
Hajj-Malik Williams run for no gain to the USU 44Similar
Q1 10:22
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+4
12.3%
Jai'Den Thomas run for 4 yds to the USU 40Similar
Q1 9:38
3RD & 6
OPP 40
0
12.5%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:24
4TH & 6
OPP 40
0
12.7%
Marshall Nichols punt for 40 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · -9 yds · 1:1913% → 13%
Q1 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
12.8%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Rahsul Faison for 1 yd to the USU 21Similar
Q1 9:03
2ND & 9
OWN 21
0
12.9%
Spencer Petras pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:40
3RD & 9
OWN 21
-10
12.8%
Spencer Petras sacked by Mani Powell for a loss of 10 yards to the USU 11Similar
Q1 8:01
4TH & 19
OWN 11
+4
13.0%
Stephen Kotsanlee punt for 42 yds , Jacob De Jesus returns for 4 yds to the USU 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 5TD
7 plays · 49 yds · 2:1987% → 88%
Q1 7:59
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
12.8%
Jai'Den Thomas run for no gain to the USU 49Similar
Q1 7:37
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
12.8%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:30
3RD & 10
OPP 49
+9
13.0%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Jai'Den Thomas for 9 yds to the USU 40Similar
Q1 7:08
4TH & 1
OPP 40
+3
13.1%
Hajj-Malik Williams run for 3 yds to the USU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+14
13.1%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Ricky White III for 14 yds to the USU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:14
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
13.1%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Ricky White III for 5 yds to the USU 18Similar
Q1 5:40
2ND & 5
OPP 18
+18
11.7%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Ricky White III for 18 yds for a TD (Caden Chittenden KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 6TD
11 plays · 79 yds · 4:2412% → 16%
Q1 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
12.4%
Rahsul Faison run for 4 yds to the USU 25Similar
Q1 5:16
2ND & 6
OWN 25
+5
12.4%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Broc Lane for 5 yds to the USU 30Similar
Q1 4:49
3RD & 1
OWN 30
+2
12.6%
Rahsul Faison run for 2 yds to the USU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
12.6%
Rahsul Faison run for 1 yd to the USU 33Similar
Q1 4:12
2ND & 9
OWN 33
-2
12.6%
Spencer Petras sacked by Johnathan Baldwin and Jalen Dixon for a loss of 2 yards to the USU 31Similar
Q1 3:39
3RD & 11
OWN 31
+17
12.1%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Jack Hestera for 17 yds to the USU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+11
12.7%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Jalen Royals for 11 yds to the UNLV 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:46
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
12.8%
Rahsul Faison run for 3 yds to the UNLV 38Similar
Q1 2:19
2ND & 7
OPP 38
+3
13.0%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Rahsul Faison for 3 yds to the UNLV 35Similar
Q1 1:58
3RD & 4
OPP 35
+15
13.0%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Jalen Royals for 15 yds to the UNLV 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
16.2%
Rahsul Faison run for 20 yds for a TD (Tanner Cragun KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 7FG
8 plays · 60 yds · 2:3585% → 85%
Q1 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+30
14.8%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Ricky White III for 30 yds to the USU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+13
14.2%
Kylin James run for 13 yds to the USU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:18
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+7
14.3%
Kylin James run for 7 yds to the USU 25Similar
Q2 14:58
2ND & 3
OPP 25
+5
14.3%
Kylin James run for 5 yds to the USU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:42
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
14.4%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:28
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+5
14.5%
Hajj-Malik Williams run for 5 yds to the USU 15Similar
Q2 14:06
3RD & 5
OPP 15
0
14.7%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:35
4TH & 5
OPP 15
+33
14.9%
Caden Chittenden 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 8FUMBLE
1 play · 12 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q2 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
14.3%
Spencer Petras run for 12 yds to the USU 37 Spencer Petras fumbled, recovered by UNLV Jackson Woodard J. Woodard return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 9TD
4 plays · 37 yds · 1:3386% → 91%
Q2 13:29
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
14.5%
Jai'Den Thomas run for 4 yds to the USU 33Similar
Q2 13:08
2ND & 6
OPP 33
+3
14.5%
Jai'Den Thomas run for 3 yds to the USU 30Similar
Q2 12:44
3RD & 3
OPP 30
+12
14.8%
Hajj-Malik Williams run for 12 yds to the USU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:56
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
9.5%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Casey Cain for 18 yds for a TD (Caden Chittenden KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 10INT
4 plays · 31 yds · 0:5711% → 12%
Q2 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
11.2%
Rahsul Faison run for 4 yds to the USU 29Similar
Q2 11:35
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+20
11.3%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Jalen Royals for 20 yds to the USU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
11.8%
Rahsul Faison run for 7 yds to the UNLV 44Similar
Q2 10:57
2ND & 3
OPP 44
-23
11.9%
Spencer Petras pass intercepted Jackson Woodard return for 23 yds to the USU 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 11TD
6 plays · 37 yds · 1:2391% → 94%
Q2 10:47
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
9.5%
Hajj-Malik Williams run for 2 yds to the USU 35Similar
Q2 10:30
2ND & 8
OPP 35
-10
9.5%
(10:30) QB Keeper WILLIAMS, Hajj-Malik rush to the left for a gain of 5 yards to the USU30 (MAYE, Jon Ross;FALATEA, Lawrence), clock 10:27. PENALTY UNLV Holding on ST. JOHN, Jalen enforced 10 yards from the USU35 to the USU45 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 10:05
2ND & 18
OPP 45
+15
9.5%
(10:05) WILLIAMS, Hajj-Malik pass up the middle incomplete thrown to the USU30, clock 10:00. PENALTY USU Roughing the Passer on SLONE, Cian enforced 15 yards from the USU45 to the USU30 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 9:56
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+8
9.4%
Kylin James run for 8 yds to the USU 22Similar
Q2 9:24
2ND & 2
OPP 22
+22
6.2%
Kylin James run for 22 yds for a TD (Caden Chittenden KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 12DOWNS
8 plays · 39 yds · 2:578% → 9%
Q2 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
8.1%
(09:26) TURNER, Herschel rush to the right for no gain to the USU25 (BALDWIN, Johnathan;CORREA, Charles), clock 09:21. PENALTY USU Holding on ANDERSEN, Teague enforced 10 yards from the USU25 to the USU15 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 9:14
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+4
8.0%
Herschel Turner run for 4 yds to the USU 19Similar
Q2 8:54
2ND & 16
OWN 19
+13
8.0%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Jack Hestera for 13 yds to the USU 32Similar
Q2 8:30
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+14
8.2%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Jalen Royals for 14 yds to the USU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
8.9%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Herschel Turner for 3 yds to the USU 49Similar
Q2 7:29
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+1
8.9%
Herschel Turner run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 6:54
3RD & 6
50
+1
8.7%
Spencer Petras run for 1 yd to the UNLV 49Similar
Q2 6:29
4TH & 5
OPP 49
0
8.7%
Spencer Petras pass intercepted Jett Elad return for no gain to the UNLV 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 13FG
5 plays · 36 yds · 2:4294% → 95%
Q2 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+30
6.3%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Ricky White III for 30 yds to the USU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-11
6.0%
Hajj-Malik Williams sacked by Lawrence Falatea and Cian Slone for a loss of 11 yards to the USU 45Similar
Q2 5:14
2ND & 21
OPP 45
+9
5.9%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Greg Burrell for 9 yds to the USU 36Similar
Q2 4:23
3RD & 12
OPP 36
+8
5.9%
Hajj-Malik Williams run for 8 yds to the USU 28Similar
Q2 3:37
4TH & 4
OPP 28
+46
4.9%
Caden Chittenden 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:324% → 3%
Q2 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
4.3%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Jack Hestera for 3 yds to the USU 28Similar
Q2 3:18
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
4.2%
Spencer Petras pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:11
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
3.8%
Spencer Petras pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:07
4TH & 7
OWN 28
-5
3.4%
Utah State Penalty, Delay Of Game (Stephen Kotsanlee) to the USU 23Similar
Q2 3:05
4TH & 12
OWN 23
+22
3.4%
Stephen Kotsanlee punt for 30 yds , Jacob De Jesus returns for 22 yds to the USU 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 15TD
3 plays · 31 yds · 1:0496% → 98%
Q2 2:57
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-5
3.9%
Hajj-Malik Williams sacked by Cian Slone and Lawrence Falatea for a loss of 5 yards to the USU 36Similar
Q2 2:25
2ND & 15
OPP 36
+5
4.0%
Jai'Den Thomas run for 5 yds to the USU 31Similar
Q2 1:53
3RD & 10
OPP 31
+31
2.3%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Ricky White III for 31 yds for a TD (Caden Chittenden KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 16END OF HALF
12 plays · 55 yds · 1:472% → 1%
Q2 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
2.1%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Rahsul Faison for no gain to the USU 25Similar
Q2 1:32
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+24
2.0%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Jack Hestera for 24 yds to the USU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+8
2.2%
Rahsul Faison run for 8 yds to the UNLV 43Similar
Q2 1:01
2ND & 2
OPP 43
+10
1.9%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Otto Tia for 10 yds to the UNLV 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
2.1%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Otto Tia for 4 yds to the UNLV 29Similar
Q2 0:46
2ND & 6
OPP 29
-15
1.5%
Utah State Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the UNLV 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:39
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+8
1.6%
Spencer Petras run for 8 yds to the UNLV 24Similar
Q2 0:13
2ND & 2
OPP 24
+6
1.2%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Otto Tia for 6 yds to the UNLV 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-15
1.5%
Utah State Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Rahsul Faison) to the UNLV 30Similar
Q2 0:04
2ND & 22
OPP 30
+10
1.4%
Elliott Nimrod run for 10 yds to the UNLV 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 17TD
8 plays · 66 yds · 2:442% → 2%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+15
2.2%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Broc Lane for 15 yds to the USU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
2.4%
Rahsul Faison run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 9
50
+6
2.3%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Otto Tia for 6 yds to the UNLV 44Similar
Q3 14:53
3RD & 3
OPP 44
+9
2.5%
Herschel Turner run for 9 yds to the UNLV 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
2.6%
Spencer Petras pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+7
2.5%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Broc Lane for 7 yds to the UNLV 28Similar
Q3 14:53
3RD & 3
OPP 28
+4
2.6%
Rahsul Faison run for 4 yds to the UNLV 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:09
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
2.3%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Jack Hestera for 24 yds for a TD (Tanner Cragun KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 18TD
4 plays · 61 yds · 1:3298% → 99%
Q3 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+13
2.0%
Jai'Den Thomas run for 13 yds to the USU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:47
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+12
2.0%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for 12 yds to the USU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:56
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+7
1.9%
Jai'Den Thomas run for 7 yds to the USU 29Similar
Q3 10:26
2ND & 3
OPP 29
+29
1.3%
Jai'Den Thomas run for 29 yds for a TD (Caden Chittenden PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 19TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:172% → 1%
Q3 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
1.5%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Jalen Royals for 12 yds to the USU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
1.4%
Spencer Petras pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:57
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+5
1.4%
Rahsul Faison run for 5 yds to the USU 42Similar
Q3 9:35
3RD & 5
OWN 42
+19
1.4%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Jack Hestera for 19 yds to the UNLV 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:18
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+17
1.5%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Will Monney for 17 yds to the UNLV 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:39
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
1.5%
Herschel Turner run for 2 yds to the UNLV 20Similar
Q3 8:17
2ND & 8
OPP 20
+9
1.4%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Will Monney for 9 yds to the UNLV 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:04
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-2
1.5%
Herschel Turner run for a loss of 2 yards to the UNLV 13Similar
Q3 7:10
2ND & 12
OPP 13
+13
0.9%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Jalen Royals for 13 yds for a TD (Tanner Cragun KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:4599% → 99%
Q3 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
1.5%
Jaden Bradley run for 6 yds to the UNLV 41Similar
Q3 6:43
2ND & 4
OWN 41
-2
1.4%
Kylin James run for a loss of 2 yards to the UNLV 39Similar
Q3 5:57
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+3
1.2%
Hajj-Malik Williams run for 3 yds to the UNLV 42Similar
Q3 5:23
4TH & 3
OWN 42
0
1.2%
Marshall Nichols punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Kahanu Davis at the USU 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:141% → 1%
Q3 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
0.8%
Spencer Petras pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:14
2ND & 10
OWN 19
0
0.8%
Spencer Petras pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:07
3RD & 10
OWN 19
0
0.8%
Spencer Petras pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:05
4TH & 10
OWN 19
0
0.8%
Stephen Kotsanlee punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Jacob De Jesus at the UNLV 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 22DOWNS
12 plays · 22 yds · 5:2299% → 99%
Q3 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
1.1%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:54
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+6
1.1%
Jai'Den Thomas run for 6 yds to the USU 49Similar
Q3 4:28
3RD & 4
OPP 49
+10
1.0%
Hajj-Malik Williams run for 10 yds to the USU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:46
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+7
0.9%
Jai'Den Thomas run for 7 yds to the USU 32Similar
Q3 3:08
2ND & 3
OPP 32
-2
0.8%
Jai'Den Thomas run for a loss of 2 yards to the USU 34Similar
Q3 2:33
3RD & 5
OPP 34
+6
0.9%
Jai'Den Thomas run for 6 yds to the USU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:03
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+9
0.8%
Jai'Den Thomas run for 9 yds to the USU 19Similar
Q3 1:45
2ND & 1
OPP 19
+1
0.8%
Kylin James run for 1 yd to the USU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:12
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-16
0.8%
sacked by Cian Slone for a loss of 16 yards to the USU 34Similar
Q3 0:36
2ND & 26
OPP 34
+4
0.8%
Jai'Den Thomas run for 4 yds to the USU 30Similar
Q4 14:58
3RD & 22
OPP 30
-1
0.8%
Jai'Den Thomas run for a loss of 1 yard to the USU 31Similar
Q4 14:37
4TH & 23
OPP 31
-2
1.0%
Hajj-Malik Williams sacked by Bronson Olevao Jr. for a loss of 2 yards to the USU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 23TD
9 plays · 67 yds · 2:561% → 5%
Q4 14:32
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-1
0.5%
Spencer Petras sacked by Tatuo Martinson and Keith Conley Jr. for a loss of 1 yard to the USU 32Similar
Q4 14:02
2ND & 11
OWN 32
0
0.4%
Spencer Petras pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:02
3RD & 11
OWN 32
+10
0.4%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Grant Page for 10 yds to the USU 42Similar
Q4 13:34
4TH & 1
OWN 42
+2
0.4%
Spencer Petras run for 2 yds to the USU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+27
0.4%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Jalen Royals for 27 yds to the UNLV 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:32
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+8
0.4%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Jack Hestera for 8 yds to the UNLV 21Similar
Q4 12:13
2ND & 2
OPP 21
+10
0.4%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Jack Hestera for 10 yds to the UNLV 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
0.4%
UNLV Penalty, Offsides (5 Yards) to the UNLV 6Similar
Q4 11:36
1ST & 5
OPP 6
+6
4.8%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Broc Lane for 6 yds for a TD (Tanner Cragun KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 24PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 2:3598% → 98%
Q4 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
2.4%
Kylin James run for 1 yd to the UNLV 26Similar
Q4 11:05
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+10
2.4%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Ricky White III for 10 yds to the UNLV 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
2.1%
Jai'Den Thomas run for 2 yds to the UNLV 38Similar
Q4 10:00
2ND & 8
OWN 38
-6
2.0%
Hajj-Malik Williams run for a loss of 6 yards to the UNLV 32Similar
Q4 9:12
3RD & 14
OWN 32
0
2.2%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:01
4TH & 14
OWN 32
0
2.1%
Marshall Nichols punt for 55 yds, downed at the USU 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 25INT
10 plays · 53 yds · 1:564% → 4%
Q4 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+6
3.6%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Jalen Royals for 6 yds to the USU 19Similar
Q4 8:32
2ND & 4
OWN 19
0
3.6%
Spencer Petras pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:32
3RD & 4
OWN 19
+20
3.5%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Jack Hestera for 20 yds to the USU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
3.8%
Rahsul Faison run for 2 yds to the USU 41Similar
Q4 7:57
2ND & 8
OWN 41
0
3.8%
Spencer Petras pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:52
3RD & 8
OWN 41
+6
3.6%
Rahsul Faison run for 6 yds to the USU 47Similar
Q4 7:31
4TH & 2
OWN 47
+5
3.8%
UNLV Penalty, Offsides (Alexander Whitmore) to the UNLV 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:17
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+14
3.8%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Jack Hestera for 14 yds to the UNLV 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:59
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
4.2%
Spencer Petras pass intercepted Jackson Woodard return for a loss of 2 yards to the UNLV 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 26FG
8 plays · 64 yds · 3:2398% → 100%
Q4 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+10
1.7%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Jaden Bradley for 10 yds to the UNLV 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+62
1.4%
Hajj-Malik Williams run for 62 yds to the USU 10 for a 1ST down Utah State Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Ike Larsen) to the USU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-10
1.3%
(05:38) JAMES, Kylin rush to the left for a gain of 5 yards to the USU0, TOUCHDOWN UNLV, score nullified by penalty, clock 05:34 (Play was confirmed after review). PENALTY UNLV Holding on SHANKS, Tiger enforced 10 yards from the USU5 to the USU15 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 5:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 15
+8
1.3%
Kylin James run for 8 yds to the USU 7Similar
Q4 4:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
0.6%
Kylin James run for 2 yds to the USU 5Similar
Q4 4:03
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
-15
0.6%
UNLV Penalty, turnover on downs. PENALTY Personal Foul on WHITE III, Ricky enforced (-15 Yards) to the USU 18Similar
Q4 3:31
4TH & GOAL
OPP 18
+36
0.5%
Andre Meono 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 27TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 2:131% → 3%
Q4 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+24
0.9%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Jalen Royals for 24 yds to the USU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+13
0.9%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Jalen Royals for 13 yds to the UNLV 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:47
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+9
0.9%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Grant Page for 9 yds to the UNLV 29Similar
Q4 2:12
2ND & 1
OPP 29
0
1.0%
Spencer Petras pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:08
3RD & 1
OPP 29
0
1.0%
Spencer Petras pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:02
4TH & 1
OPP 29
+13
0.9%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Grant Page for 13 yds to the UNLV 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:56
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
0.9%
Spencer Petras pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:52
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+4
0.9%
Herschel Turner run for 4 yds to the UNLV 12Similar
Q4 1:40
3RD & 6
OPP 12
0
0.7%
Spencer Petras pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:38
4TH & 6
OPP 12
+9
0.7%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Herschel Turner for 9 yds to the UNLV 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
3.2%
Herschel Turner run for 3 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 28END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:4399% → 99%
Q4 1:13
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-1
0.9%
(01:13) Kneel down by TEAM at USU49 (team loss of 1), clock 01:06.Similar
Q4 0:30
2ND & 11
OPP 49
-1
0.9%
(00:30) Kneel down by TEAM at USU50 (team loss of 1), clock 00:25.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 11:56
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Casey Cain for 18 yds for a TD (Caden Chittenden KICK)
-5.3
TD · Q4 11:36
Spencer Petras pass complete to Broc Lane for 6 yds for a TD (Tanner Cragun KICK)
+4.4
TD · Q1 1:11
Rahsul Faison run for 20 yds for a TD (Tanner Cragun KICK)
+3.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com