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AF

Air Force 37 at New Mexico 52

UNM
2024 · Week 7 · Oct 12, 2024 · University Stadium (NM)
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Win probability · UNM
modelUNM aheadAF aheadconfidence bandkey playUNM scoreAF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:36 · (00:36) Kneel down by TEAM at AFA30 (team loss of 2), clock 00:30.
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+35.5+17.80−17.8−35.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:44: Cade Harris run for 5 yds for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK) — AF win probability +8.0 pts (now 36%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  2. TD · Q2 5:05: Devon Dampier pass complete to Nic Trujillo for 18 yds for a TD (Luke Drzewiecki KICK) — UNM win probability +7.0 pts (now 78%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 2:46: Tylor Latham run for 4 yds for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK) — AF win probability +10.6 pts (now 36%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. TD · Q2 0:11: Devon Dampier run for 2 yds for a TD (Luke Drzewiecki KICK) — UNM win probability +9.9 pts (now 82%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 12:49: Sol-Jay Maiava-Peters run for 15 yds for a TD (Luke Drzewiecki KICK) — UNM win probability +9.0 pts (now 91%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNM made the numbers' call on 3 of 4AF made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 14:22UNM 4th & 4 at UNM 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.8%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:23AF 4th & 1 at UNM 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    32.4%−0.4
    58% to make
    Punt
    31.6%−1.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:49AF 4th & 9 at UNM 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 33.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.8%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.0%
    64% to make
    Punt
    31.8%−1.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:32AF 4th & 13 at AF 22, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.9%−1.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.1%
    average punt
  5. Q3 13:22AF 4th & 1 at AF 34, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    19.3%−0.8
    average punt
  6. Q3 5:37UNM 4th & 3 at AF 7, up 18
    Close callKicked a field goal · 93.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.7%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.2%−0.6
    91% to make
    Punt
    88.6%−5.2
    average punt
  7. Q3 2:36AF 4th & 1 at AF 46, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.6%−0.9
    average punt
  8. Q4 10:54UNM 4th & 2 at AF 35, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    98.2%−0.3
    45% to make
    Punt
    98.1%−0.5
    average punt
  9. Q4 9:30AF 4th & 1 at AF 42, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.1%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q4 3:43UNM 4th & 4 at AF 27, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    99.2%−<0.1
    62% to make
    Punt
    98.7%−0.5
    average punt
  11. Q4 2:18AF 4th & 7 at UNM 39, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.6%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    0.8%
    36% to make
    Punt
    0.6%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNM made the numbers' call on 6 of 6AF made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 0:14UNM Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 7:44AF Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 5:05UNM Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:46AF Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:11UNM Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 12:49UNM Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 1:25UNM Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 12:31AF Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 10:54UNM Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 8:27AF Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 2:18AF Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    2.5%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    2.6%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNMDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:3768% → 68%
Q1 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
68.0%
Devon Dampier pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:53
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
68.0%
Javen Jacobs run for 6 yds to the UNM 31Similar
Q1 14:27
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
67.9%
Devon Dampier pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:22
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
67.9%
Aaron Rodriguez punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 2FG
17 plays · 54 yds · 9:2232% → 34%
Q1 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-4
67.9%
Quentin Hayes run for a loss of 4 yards to the AFA 17 Quentin Hayes fumbled, recovered by AFA Quentin Hayes Q. Hayes return for 1 ydsSimilar
Q1 13:39
2ND & 13
OWN 17
+1
67.8%
Cade Harris run for 1 yd to the AFA 18Similar
Q1 13:04
3RD & 12
OWN 18
+16
67.8%
Tylor Latham run for 16 yds to the AFA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
67.6%
Terrence Gist run for 4 yds to the AFA 38Similar
Q1 11:54
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+5
67.4%
Quentin Hayes run for 5 yds to the AFA 43Similar
Q1 11:27
3RD & 1
OWN 43
+3
67.3%
Quentin Hayes run for 3 yds to the AFA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
67.1%
Terrence Gist run for 5 yds to the UNM 49Similar
Q1 10:17
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+4
66.9%
Dylan Carson run for 4 yds to the UNM 45Similar
Q1 9:46
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+7
66.8%
Dylan Carson run for 7 yds to the UNM 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:09
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
66.7%
Quentin Hayes run for 4 yds to the UNM 34Similar
Q1 8:32
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+3
66.2%
Terrence Gist run for 3 yds to the UNM 31Similar
Q1 7:55
3RD & 3
OPP 31
+2
66.3%
Terrence Gist run for 2 yds to the UNM 29Similar
Q1 7:23
4TH & 1
OPP 29
+2
66.4%
Quentin Hayes run for 2 yds to the UNM 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:49
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
65.7%
Terrence Gist run for no gain to the UNM 27Similar
Q1 6:09
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+5
65.6%
Tylor Latham run for 5 yds to the UNM 22Similar
Q1 5:32
3RD & 5
OPP 22
-4
65.6%
Tylor Latham run for a loss of 4 yards to the UNM 26Similar
Q1 4:49
4TH & 9
OPP 26
+43
65.7%
Matthew Dapore 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 3TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:3265% → 69%
Q1 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
65.2%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Luke Wysong for 12 yds to the UNM 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
65.5%
Devon Dampier pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:23
2ND & 10
OWN 37
-5
65.4%
(04:23) DAMPIER, Devon pass deep to the left complete for 29 yards to WYSONG, Luke caught at the AFA46 and advanced to the AFA34 (AIHIE, Osaro;WILLIAMS, Trey), clock 04:14. PENALTY Before the snap, UNM Illegal Formation on WYSONG, Luke enforced 5 yards from the UNM37 to the UNM32, from the spot of the ball when the foul occurred, 0 yards credited to passer and receiver on the play. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 3:50
2ND & 15
OWN 32
+21
64.9%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Nic Trujillo for 21 yds to the AFA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:34
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
66.2%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Luke Wysong for 6 yds to the AFA 41Similar
Q1 3:14
2ND & 4
OPP 41
+5
66.2%
NaQuari Rogers run for 5 yds to the AFA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
66.2%
NaQuari Rogers run for 3 yds to the AFA 33Similar
Q1 2:24
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+3
66.4%
NaQuari Rogers run for 3 yds to the AFA 30Similar
Q1 1:46
3RD & 4
OPP 30
+10
65.7%
Devon Dampier run for 10 yds to the AFA 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:19
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+8
66.3%
Devon Dampier run for 8 yds to the AFA 12Similar
Q1 0:46
2ND & 2
OPP 12
+5
66.2%
Javen Jacobs run for 5 yds to the AFA 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
69.2%
Devon Dampier run for 7 yds for a TD (Luke Drzewiecki KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 4PUNT RETURN TD
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:3932% → 26%
Q1 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
67.7%
Dylan Carson run for 5 yds to the AFA 30Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-5
67.3%
Air Force Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the AFA 25Similar
Q2 14:59
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-1
67.7%
Rocco Conti run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 24Similar
Q2 14:26
3RD & 11
OWN 24
-2
68.3%
Quentin Hayes sacked by Moso'oipala Tuitele for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 22Similar
Q2 13:32
4TH & 13
OWN 22
+79
74.0%
Luke Freer punt for 57 yds , Luke Wysong returns for 79 yds for a TD (Luke Drzewiecki KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 5TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 5:4627% → 36%
Q2 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
73.0%
Quentin Hayes run for 1 yd to the AFA 26Similar
Q2 13:07
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+30
73.2%
Quentin Hayes run for 30 yds to the UNM 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:35
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+7
71.9%
Terrence Gist run for 7 yds to the UNM 37Similar
Q2 11:58
2ND & 3
OPP 37
+2
71.8%
Terrence Gist run for 2 yds to the UNM 35Similar
Q2 11:25
3RD & 1
OPP 35
+3
72.0%
Quentin Hayes run for 3 yds to the UNM 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:47
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+9
71.9%
Cade Harris run for 9 yds to the UNM 23Similar
Q2 10:08
2ND & 1
OPP 23
0
71.8%
Dylan Carson run for no gain to the UNM 23Similar
Q2 9:23
3RD & 1
OPP 23
+1
73.0%
Quentin Hayes run for 1 yd to the UNM 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:48
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+13
72.3%
Quentin Hayes run for 13 yds to the UNM 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
72.4%
Terrence Gist run for 4 yds to the UNM 5Similar
Q2 7:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
64.5%
Cade Harris run for 5 yds for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 6TD
6 plays · 72 yds · 2:2968% → 78%
Q2 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+20
68.4%
Sol-Jay Maiava-Peters run for 20 yds to the UNM 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
69.9%
Sol-Jay Maiava-Peters run for 8 yds to the AFA 44Similar
Q2 6:43
2ND & 2
OPP 44
+19
70.3%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Luke Wysong for 19 yds to the AFA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:07
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
70.8%
Eli Sanders run for 4 yds to the AFA 21Similar
Q2 5:37
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+3
70.8%
Devon Dampier run for 3 yds to the AFA 18 Devon Dampier fumbled, recovered by UNMSimilar
Q2 5:05
3RD & 3
OPP 18
+18
77.8%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Nic Trujillo for 18 yds for a TD (Luke Drzewiecki KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 7TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 2:1724% → 36%
Q2 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+43
76.2%
Quentin Hayes pass complete to Bruin Fleischmann for 43 yds to the UNM 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:34
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+20
75.1%
Tylor Latham run for 20 yds to the UNM 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:07
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
74.9%
Terrence Gist run for 4 yds to the UNM 8Similar
Q2 3:28
2ND & 6
OPP 8
+4
75.1%
Rocco Conti run for 4 yds to the UNM 4Similar
Q2 2:46
3RD & 2
OPP 4
+4
64.5%
Tylor Latham run for 4 yds for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 8TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 2:3569% → 82%
Q2 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
68.5%
New Mexico Penalty, False Start (Lajuan Owens) to the UNM 20Similar
Q2 2:44
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+5
68.3%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Luke Wysong for 5 yds to the UNM 25Similar
Q2 2:15
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+11
68.2%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Luke Wysong for 11 yds to the UNM 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
69.1%
Devon Dampier sacked by Osaro Aihie for a loss of 1 yard to the UNM 35Similar
Q2 1:51
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+15
68.4%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Caleb Medford for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:33
1ST & 10
50
+9
70.6%
Devon Dampier run for 9 yds to the AFA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:26
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
71.6%
Javen Jacobs run for 2 yds to the AFA 32Similar
Q2 0:58
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+16
71.7%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Nic Trujillo for 16 yds to the AFA 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+7
71.7%
Javen Jacobs run for 7 yds to the AFA 9Similar
Q2 0:40
2ND & 3
OPP 9
+2
72.7%
Devon Dampier run for 2 yds to the AFA 7Similar
Q2 0:18
3RD & 1
OPP 7
+5
71.5%
Devon Dampier run for 5 yds to the AFA 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
81.8%
Devon Dampier run for 2 yds for a TD (Luke Drzewiecki KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 9END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
80.4%
(00:06) Kneel down by TEAM at AFA23 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 10DOWNS
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:3621% → 20%
Q3 14:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
79.4%
(14:58) HAYES, Quentin pass deep up the middle complete for 75 yards to LATHAM, Tylor caught at the UNM39 and advanced to the UNM0, TOUCHDOWN AFA, score nullified by penalty, clock 14:46 (Play was confirmed after review). PENALTY AFA Holding on FLEISCHMANN, Bruin enforced 10 yards from the AFA25 to the AFA15 [NH]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 14:24
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+7
79.7%
Cade Harris run for 7 yds to the AFA 22Similar
Q3 14:06
2ND & 13
OWN 22
0
80.0%
Quentin Hayes pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:58
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+12
80.8%
Quentin Hayes run for 12 yds to the AFA 34Similar
Q3 13:22
4TH & 1
OWN 34
-2
80.2%
Tylor Latham run for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 11TD
2 plays · 32 yds · 0:2682% → 91%
Q3 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+17
82.1%
Sol-Jay Maiava-Peters run for 17 yds to the AFA 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:49
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
91.1%
Sol-Jay Maiava-Peters run for 15 yds for a TD (Luke Drzewiecki KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 12FUMBLE
8 plays · 24 yds · 3:5312% → 9%
Q3 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
87.8%
Quentin Hayes run for 7 yds to the AFA 32Similar
Q3 12:09
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+7
87.5%
Terrence Gist run for 7 yds to the AFA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
87.7%
Quentin Hayes run for 3 yds to the AFA 42Similar
Q3 10:57
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+6
88.0%
Terrence Gist run for 6 yds to the AFA 48Similar
Q3 10:21
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+2
87.9%
Quentin Hayes run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:42
1ST & 10
50
0
89.7%
Quentin Hayes pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:34
2ND & 10
50
-1
89.9%
Tylor Latham run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 49Similar
Q3 8:54
3RD & 11
OWN 49
0
90.6%
Quentin Hayes run for no gain to the AFA 49 Quentin Hayes fumbled, recovered by UNM Dimitri Johnson D. Johnson return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 13FG
8 plays · 42 yds · 3:1093% → 96%
Q3 8:47
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
93.3%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Sol-Jay Maiava-Peters for 6 yds to the AFA 43Similar
Q3 8:20
2ND & 4
OPP 43
-1
93.4%
Sol-Jay Maiava-Peters run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 44Similar
Q3 7:50
3RD & 5
OPP 44
+30
93.4%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Nic Trujillo for 30 yds to the AFA 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:36
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-3
93.6%
Sol-Jay Maiava-Peters run for a loss of 3 yards to the AFA 17Similar
Q3 7:00
2ND & 13
OPP 17
+3
93.8%
Devon Dampier run for 3 yds to the AFA 14Similar
Q3 6:23
3RD & 10
OPP 14
+7
92.9%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Javen Jacobs for 7 yds to the AFA 7Similar
Q3 5:37
4TH & 3
OPP 7
+24
96.4%
Luke Drzewiecki 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 14DOWNS
7 plays · 19 yds · 2:585% → 4%
Q3 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
95.4%
Owen Allen run for 8 yds to the AFA 33Similar
Q3 5:02
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+4
95.7%
Terrence Gist run for 4 yds to the AFA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
95.9%
Kaden Cloud run for no gain to the AFA 37Similar
Q3 4:02
2ND & 10
OWN 37
-10
96.0%
(04:02) QB Keeper HAYES, Quentin rush to the right for a gain of 2 yards to the AFA39 (WATTS, Cameron;KPAI, Randolph), clock 03:57. PENALTY AFA Holding on FLEISCHMANN, Bruin enforced 10 yards from the AFA37 to the AFA27. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 3:35
2ND & 20
OWN 27
+7
96.5%
Kaden Cloud run for 7 yds to the AFA 34Similar
Q3 3:00
3RD & 13
OWN 34
+12
96.6%
Quentin Hayes pass complete to Quin Smith for 12 yds to the AFA 46Similar
Q3 2:36
4TH & 1
OWN 46
-2
96.4%
Tylor Latham run for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 15TD
3 plays · 44 yds · 1:0498% → 100%
Q3 2:29
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
97.8%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Trace Bruckler for 5 yds to the AFA 39Similar
Q3 1:57
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+8
98.3%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Caleb Medford for 8 yds to the AFA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+31
99.6%
Eli Sanders run for 31 yds for a TD (Luke Drzewiecki KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 16TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:540% → 2%
Q3 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.7%
Quentin Hayes run for 4 yds to the AFA 29Similar
Q3 0:44
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+2
99.7%
Rocco Conti run for 2 yds to the AFA 31Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+15
99.7%
New Mexico Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Bryson Taylor) to the AFA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:58
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
99.7%
Quentin Hayes pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+6
99.7%
Terrence Gist run for 6 yds to the UNM 48Similar
Q4 14:17
3RD & 4
OPP 48
+24
99.7%
Quentin Hayes pass complete to Cade Harris for 24 yds to the UNM 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:54
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
99.7%
Dylan Carson run for 5 yds to the UNM 19Similar
Q4 13:16
2ND & 5
OPP 19
+1
99.7%
Rocco Conti run for 1 yd to the UNM 18Similar
Q4 12:31
3RD & 4
OPP 18
+18
98.2%
Quentin Hayes run for 18 yds for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 17TD
4 plays · 28 yds · 1:3499% → 100%
Q4 12:28
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
99.0%
Eli Sanders run for 4 yds to the AFA 39Similar
Q4 11:45
2ND & 6
OPP 39
0
99.0%
Devon Dampier pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:39
3RD & 6
OPP 39
+4
99.0%
Javen Jacobs run for 4 yds to the AFA 35Similar
Q4 10:54
4TH & 2
OPP 35
+35
99.8%
Eli Sanders run for 35 yds for a TD New Mexico Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Baraka Beckett) to the AFA 0 (Luke Drzewiecki KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 18TD
7 plays · 67 yds · 2:180% → 2%
Q4 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
99.8%
Owen Allen run for 5 yds to the AFA 38Similar
Q4 10:19
2ND & 5
OWN 38
0
99.8%
Josh Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:13
3RD & 5
OWN 38
+4
99.8%
Josh Johnson run for 4 yds to the AFA 42Similar
Q4 9:30
4TH & 1
OWN 42
+42
99.9%
Josh Johnson run for 42 yds to the UNM 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
99.8%
Kemper Hodges run for 5 yds to the UNM 11Similar
Q4 8:27
2ND & 5
OPP 11
+11
98.5%
Kemper Hodges run for 11 yds for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 19DOWNS
8 plays · 22 yds · 4:38100% → 100%
Q4 8:21
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
99.5%
Sol-Jay Maiava-Peters run for 7 yds to the AFA 42Similar
Q4 7:38
2ND & 3
OPP 42
-2
99.5%
Sol-Jay Maiava-Peters run for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 44Similar
Q4 6:52
3RD & 5
OPP 44
+11
99.5%
Javen Jacobs run for 11 yds to the AFA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:08
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
99.7%
NaQuari Rogers run for 4 yds to the AFA 29Similar
Q4 5:21
2ND & 6
OPP 29
0
99.6%
NaQuari Rogers run for no gain to the AFA 29Similar
Q4 4:27
3RD & 6
OPP 29
+2
99.7%
Devon Dampier run for 2 yds to the AFA 27Similar
Q4 3:43
4TH & 4
OPP 27
0
99.7%
Devon Dampier pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 20TD
5 plays · 73 yds · 1:201% → 4%
Q4 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+31
99.3%
Josh Johnson pass complete to Quin Smith for 31 yds to the UNM 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:04
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-5
99.2%
Josh Johnson sacked by Dimitri Johnson for a loss of 5 yards to the UNM 47Similar
Q4 2:55
2ND & 15
OPP 47
+8
99.3%
Josh Johnson run for 8 yds to the UNM 39Similar
Q4 2:27
3RD & 7
OPP 39
0
99.3%
Josh Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:18
4TH & 7
OPP 39
+39
96.3%
Josh Johnson pass complete to Quin Smith for 39 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 21END OF GAME
6 plays · 13 yds · 1:3999% → 99%
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
99.3%
Sol-Jay Maiava-Peters run for 2 yds to the AFA 41Similar
Q4 1:58
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+6
99.1%
Eli Sanders run for 6 yds to the AFA 35Similar
Q4 1:36
3RD & 2
OPP 35
+9
99.3%
NaQuari Rogers run for 9 yds to the AFA 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:07
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-2
99.4%
(01:07) Kneel down by TEAM at AFA28 (team loss of 2), clock 01:01.Similar
Q4 0:36
2ND & 12
OPP 28
-2
99.4%
(00:36) Kneel down by TEAM at AFA30 (team loss of 2), clock 00:30.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 2:46
Tylor Latham run for 4 yds for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK)
-10.6
TD · Q2 0:11
Devon Dampier run for 2 yds for a TD (Luke Drzewiecki KICK)
+9.9
TD · Q3 12:49
Sol-Jay Maiava-Peters run for 15 yds for a TD (Luke Drzewiecki KICK)
+9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com