Try the model
NAVY

Navy 34 at Air Force 7

AF
2024 · Week 6 · Oct 5, 2024 · Falcon Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · AF
modelAF aheadNAVY aheadconfidence bandkey playAF scoreNAVY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameTD-2.5AF 20.8%Nathan Kent run for 34 yds for a TD(Nathan Kirkwood KICK)AWAY 14 - HOME 0 · Q1 2:34
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 2:34 · Nathan Kent run for 34 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+58.5+29.30−29.3−58.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 29Home team on offense−7.2Pregame prior−23.1Score differential−2.8Garbage-time factor−1.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:09: Quentin Hayes pass complete to Tre Roberson for 45 yds for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK) — AF win probability +11.0 pts (now 29%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q2 11:09: Blake Horvath run for 16 yds to the NAVY 41 for a 1ST down — NAVY win probability +7.3 pts (now 79%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 2:37: Blake Horvath run for 2 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK) — NAVY win probability +15.3 pts (now 86%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q3 15:00: Quentin Hayes run for 16 yds to the AFA 41 for a 1ST down — AF win probability +10.6 pts (now 17%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 6:08: Alex Tecza run for 7 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood PAT MISSED) — NAVY win probability +9.7 pts (now 96%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
AF made the numbers' call on 5 of 9NAVY made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 11:04AF 4th & 1 at AF 32, tied
    Close callPunted · 28.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.8%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 2:34NAVY 4th & 3 at AF 34, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    71.9%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    71.4%−0.5
    47% to make
    Punt
    71.2%−0.7
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:21AF 4th & 2 at AF 33, down 14
    Close callPunted · 24.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.9%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:30NAVY 4th & 3 at NAVY 39, up 14
    Close callPunted · 76.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.7%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:57NAVY 4th & 20 at NAVY 31, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.2%−2.3
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:54AF 4th & 2 at AF 28, down 7
    Close callPunted · 27.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.6%−0.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:58AF 4th & 14 at AF 45, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.6%−0.6
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:10NAVY 4th & 6 at NAVY 40, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.4%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.9%
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:28AF 4th & 5 at AF 46, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.4%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:28NAVY 4th & 2 at AF 37, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 82.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    82.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    81.1%−1.8
    40% to make
    Punt
    80.9%−1.9
    average punt
  11. Q3 2:00AF 4th & 9 at NAVY 43, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.2%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    4.5%−0.8
    28% to make
    Punt
    5.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 0:05NAVY 4th & 3 at AF 24, up 20
    Close callKicked a field goal · 96.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.3%−0.4
    68% to make
    Punt
    93.1%−3.5
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:07AF 4th & 5 at NAVY 11, down 20
    Close callWent for it · 2.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.7%−0.7
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    3.4%
    87% to make
    Punt
    0.5%−2.9
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:34AF 4th & 17 at AF 18, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  15. Q4 3:54NAVY 4th & 3 at NAVY 32, up 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:00AF 4th & 4 at NAVY 49, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AF made the numbers' call on 1 of 1NAVY made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 6:25NAVY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:34NAVY Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 11:09AF Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:37NAVY Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 6:08NAVY Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    93.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 6:58NAVY Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NAVYDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 2:0177% → 76%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
22.6%
Eli Heidenreich run for 6 yds to the NAVY 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-3
22.6%
Blake Horvath pass complete to Alex Tecza for a loss of 3 yards to the NAVY 28Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-5
22.6%
QB Keeper HORVATH, Blake rush up the middle for no gain to the NAVY28 (GROBE, Daniel). PENALTY Before the snap, NAVY False Start enforced 5 yards from the NAVY28 to the NAVY23. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 12:59
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
23.6%
Riley Riethman punt for 54 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:5524% → 24%
Q1 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
23.6%
Kade Frew run for 6 yds to the AFA 29Similar
Q1 12:59
2ND & 4
OWN 29
0
23.6%
Dylan Carson run for no gain to the AFA 29Similar
Q1 12:59
3RD & 4
OWN 29
+3
23.5%
Kade Frew run for 3 yds to the AFA 32Similar
Q1 11:04
4TH & 1
OWN 32
0
24.4%
Luke Freer punt for 55 yds , Eli Heidenreich returns for no gain to the NAVY 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 3TD
10 plays · 87 yds · 4:3976% → 77%
Q1 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+1
24.5%
Brandon Chatman run for 1 yd to the NAVY 14Similar
Q1 11:04
2ND & 9
OWN 14
+10
24.5%
Blake Horvath pass complete to Amin Hassan for 10 yds to the NAVY 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
24.5%
Blake Horvath run for 6 yds to the NAVY 30Similar
Q1 11:04
2ND & 4
OWN 30
+18
24.3%
Eli Heidenreich run for 18 yds to the NAVY 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
24.1%
Eli Heidenreich run for 8 yds to the AFA 44Similar
Q1 11:04
2ND & 2
OPP 44
+17
24.1%
Blake Horvath run for 17 yds to the AFA 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:04
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
24.0%
Daba Fofana run for 2 yds to the AFA 25Similar
Q1 11:04
2ND & 8
OPP 25
+24
24.0%
Blake Horvath pass complete to Brandon Chatman for 24 yds to the AFA 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
24.0%
Daba Fofana run for no gain to the AFA 1Similar
Q1 6:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
23.2%
Blake Horvath run for 1 yd for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 4INT
6 plays · 14 yds · 2:0924% → 24%
Q1 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
23.7%
John Busha run for 9 yds to the AFA 34Similar
Q1 6:25
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+2
24.2%
Dylan Carson run for 2 yds to the AFA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
23.9%
Kade Frew run for 3 yds to the AFA 39Similar
Q1 6:25
2ND & 7
OWN 39
0
24.2%
John Busha pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:16
3RD & 7
OWN 39
-21
24.1%
John Busha pass intercepted Dashaun Peele return for 21 yds to the AFA 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 5TD
4 plays · 41 yds · 1:4277% → 79%
Q1 4:16
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
23.3%
Blake Horvath run for 1 yd to the AFA 40Similar
Q1 4:16
2ND & 9
OPP 40
+6
23.3%
Alex Tecza run for 6 yds to the AFA 34Similar
Q1 4:16
3RD & 3
OPP 34
0
23.3%
Alex Tecza run for no gain to the AFA 34Similar
Q1 2:34
4TH & 3
OPP 34
+34
20.8%
Nathan Kent run for 34 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 2:1319% → 18%
Q1 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
18.9%
Cade Harris run for 4 yds to the AFA 29Similar
Q1 1:10
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
18.0%
John Busha run for 3 yds to the AFA 32Similar
Q1 1:10
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+1
18.1%
John Busha run for 1 yd to the AFA 33Similar
Q1 0:21
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+2
17.7%
Luke Freer punt for 57 yds , Eli Heidenreich returns for 2 yds to the NAVY 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 27 yds · 1:3082% → 83%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+20
17.8%
Blake Horvath pass complete to Eli Heidenreich for 20 yds to the NAVY 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
17.6%
Blake Horvath run for 4 yds to the NAVY 36Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+3
17.5%
Daba Fofana run for 3 yds to the NAVY 39Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 39
0
17.3%
Blake Horvath pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:30
4TH & 3
OWN 39
0
16.9%
Riley Riethman punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 8TD
5 plays · 81 yds · 2:2118% → 29%
Q2 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+11
18.2%
Kade Frew run for 11 yds to the AFA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
17.5%
Quentin Hayes run for 6 yds to the AFA 36Similar
Q2 13:30
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+1
17.9%
Quentin Hayes run for 1 yd to the AFA 37Similar
Q2 13:30
3RD & 3
OWN 37
+15
17.8%
Navy Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Rayuan Lane III) to the NAVY 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:09
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+45
28.7%
Quentin Hayes pass complete to Tre Roberson for 45 yds for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 6 yds · 2:1279% → 71%
Q2 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
21.5%
Blake Horvath run for 16 yds to the NAVY 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
20.7%
Blake Horvath run for 2 yds to the NAVY 43Similar
Q2 11:09
2ND & 8
OWN 43
-15
20.7%
HORVATH, Blake pass to the right complete for 57 yards to HEIDENREICH, Eli caught at the NAVY40 and advanced to the AF0, TOUCHDOWN NAVY, score nullified by penalty (Play was confirmed after review). PENALTY NAVY Pass Interference on KENT, Nathan enforced 15 yards to the NAVY28 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 11:09
2ND & 23
OWN 28
0
21.9%
Blake Horvath pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:09
3RD & 23
OWN 28
-5
22.2%
Navy Penalty, Delay Of Game (Mbiti Williams Jr.) to the NAVY 23Similar
Q2 11:09
3RD & 28
OWN 23
+8
22.2%
Blake Horvath run for 8 yds to the NAVY 31Similar
Q2 8:57
4TH & 20
OWN 31
0
29.2%
Riley Riethman punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 2:0328% → 29%
Q2 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
28.0%
Quentin Hayes run for 5 yds to the AFA 25Similar
Q2 8:57
2ND & 5
OWN 25
0
28.1%
Kade Frew run for no gain to the AFA 25Similar
Q2 8:57
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+3
27.7%
Kade Frew run for 3 yds to the AFA 28Similar
Q2 6:54
4TH & 2
OWN 28
0
29.4%
Luke Freer punt for 51 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 11TD
9 plays · 79 yds · 4:1773% → 86%
Q2 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+16
27.5%
Blake Horvath run for 16 yds to the NAVY 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
26.6%
Blake Horvath run for 3 yds to the NAVY 40Similar
Q2 6:54
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+22
26.1%
Blake Horvath pass complete to Eli Heidenreich for 22 yds to the AFA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:54
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+25
25.6%
Blake Horvath pass complete to Eli Heidenreich for 25 yds to the AFA 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:56
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+9
28.3%
Blake Horvath run for 9 yds to the AFA 4Similar
Q2 3:56
2ND & 1
OPP 4
0
28.3%
Daba Fofana run for no gain to the AFA 4Similar
Q2 3:56
3RD & 1
OPP 4
+2
29.0%
Blake Horvath run for 2 yds to the AFA 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
13.7%
Blake Horvath run for 2 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 1:028% → 9%
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
8.2%
Kade Frew run for 3 yds to the AFA 28Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+21
8.2%
Cade Harris run for 21 yds to the AFA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
9.0%
Quentin Hayes pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
8.9%
Tylor Latham run for no gain to the AFA 49Similar
Q2 1:04
3RD & 10
OWN 49
-4
9.0%
Quentin Hayes sacked by Jaxson Campbell for a loss of 4 yards to the AFA 45Similar
Q2 0:58
4TH & 14
OWN 45
0
8.6%
Carson Bay punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Eli Heidenreich at the NAVY 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 0:4889% → 92%
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+9
11.4%
Brandon Chatman run for 9 yds to the NAVY 27Similar
Q2 0:58
2ND & 1
OWN 27
+9
11.7%
Brandon Chatman run for 9 yds to the NAVY 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
11.1%
Blake Horvath pass complete to Brandon Chatman for 2 yds to the NAVY 38Similar
Q2 0:58
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+2
10.8%
Blake Horvath run for 2 yds to the NAVY 40Similar
Q2 0:15
3RD & 6
OWN 40
0
7.6%
Eli Heidenreich run for no gain to the NAVY 40Similar
Q2 0:10
4TH & 6
OWN 40
0
7.8%
Riley Riethman punt for 60 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
6.8%
[NHSG] Kneel down by TEAM at AF19 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 2:3217% → 17%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
17.4%
Quentin Hayes run for 16 yds to the AFA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
18.8%
Quentin Hayes run for 5 yds to the AFA 46Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+1
18.8%
Dylan Carson run for 1 yd to the AFA 47Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 47
-1
18.8%
Quentin Hayes run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 46 Quentin Hayes fumbled, recovered by AFA Quentin Hayes Q. Hayes return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q3 12:28
4TH & 5
OWN 46
0
17.4%
Luke Freer punt for 30 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 16TD
15 plays · 76 yds · 6:2084% → 96%
Q3 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
15.6%
Blake Horvath pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:28
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+1
15.7%
Alex Tecza run for 1 yd to the NAVY 25Similar
Q3 12:28
3RD & 9
OWN 25
+9
16.0%
Blake Horvath run for 9 yds to the NAVY 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
15.4%
Blake Horvath pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:28
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+6
15.4%
Blake Horvath pass complete to Eli Heidenreich for 6 yds to the NAVY 40Similar
Q3 12:28
3RD & 4
OWN 40
+4
14.7%
Blake Horvath run for 4 yds to the NAVY 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+11
14.4%
Eli Heidenreich run for 11 yds to the AFA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:28
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+8
14.2%
Daba Fofana run for 8 yds to the AFA 37Similar
Q3 12:28
2ND & 2
OPP 37
0
14.1%
Blake Horvath pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:28
3RD & 2
OPP 37
0
14.3%
Alex Tecza run for no gain to the AFA 37Similar
Q3 12:28
4TH & 2
OPP 37
+4
15.5%
Blake Horvath run for 4 yds to the AFA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:28
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+15
14.0%
HORVATH, Blake pass deep to the left incomplete intended for KENT, Nathan broken up by WILLIAMS, Trey at the AF3; QB hurried by AIHIE, Osaro. PENALTY AF Pass Interference on WILLIAMS, Trey enforced 15 yards to the AF18 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 12:28
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+9
13.9%
Blake Horvath run for 9 yds to the AFA 9Similar
Q3 12:28
2ND & 1
OPP 9
+2
13.9%
Brandon Chatman run for 2 yds to the AFA 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
4.3%
Alex Tecza run for 7 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 17DOWNS
9 plays · 34 yds · 4:086% → 4%
Q3 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
6.2%
Dylan Carson run for 1 yd to the AFA 26Similar
Q3 6:08
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+1
6.2%
Quentin Hayes run for 1 yd to the AFA 27Similar
Q3 6:08
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-5
6.1%
Air Force Penalty, False Start (Alex Moore) to the AFA 22Similar
Q3 6:08
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+34
6.1%
Quentin Hayes pass complete to Tylor Latham for 34 yds to the NAVY 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:08
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
7.0%
Terrence Gist run for 3 yds to the NAVY 41Similar
Q3 6:08
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+2
7.1%
Tylor Latham run for 2 yds to the NAVY 39Similar
Q3 6:08
3RD & 5
OPP 39
-4
7.0%
Cade Harris run for a loss of 4 yards to the NAVY 43Similar
Q3 2:00
4TH & 9
OPP 43
+2
3.7%
Quentin Hayes pass complete to Tylor Latham for 2 yds to the NAVY 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 18MISSED FG
5 plays · 35 yds · 1:5597% → 97%
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+28
3.0%
Blake Horvath pass complete to Eli Heidenreich for 28 yds to the AFA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
2.8%
Daba Fofana run for 3 yds to the AFA 28Similar
Q3 2:00
2ND & 7
OPP 28
0
2.7%
Blake Horvath pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:00
3RD & 7
OPP 28
+4
2.9%
Brandon Chatman run for 4 yds to the AFA 24Similar
Q3 0:05
4TH & 3
OPP 24
+41
2.9%
Nathan Kirkwood 41 yd FG BLOCKED blocked bySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 19DOWNS
14 plays · 51 yds · 4:532% → 1%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+9
1.5%
Terrence Gist run for 9 yds to the AFA 33Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 33
+11
1.6%
Terrence Gist run for 11 yds to the AFA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
1.6%
Quentin Hayes run for 1 yd to the AFA 45Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+29
1.6%
Quentin Hayes pass complete to Quin Smith for 29 yds to the NAVY 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:53
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
1.4%
Navy Penalty, Offsides (Kyle Jacob) to the NAVY 21Similar
Q4 12:53
1ST & 5
OPP 21
+5
1.4%
Quentin Hayes pass complete to Cade Harris for 5 yds to the NAVY 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:53
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+6
1.4%
Dylan Carson run for 6 yds to the NAVY 10Similar
Q4 12:53
2ND & 4
OPP 10
-5
1.3%
CARSON, Dylan rush up the middle for no gain to the NAVY10 (NARAYAN, Tyler). PENALTY Before the snap, AF False Start on MOORE, Alex enforced 5 yards from the NAVY10 to the NAVY15. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 12:53
2ND & 9
OPP 15
+3
1.4%
Cade Harris run for 3 yds to the NAVY 12Similar
Q4 12:53
3RD & 6
OPP 12
+1
1.4%
Quentin Hayes run for 1 yd to the NAVY 11Similar
Q4 10:07
4TH & 5
OPP 11
-14
1.0%
Quentin Hayes sacked by Jaxson Campbell for a loss of 14 yards to the NAVY 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 20TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 3:0998% → 100%
Q4 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
1.6%
Brandon Chatman run for 3 yds to the NAVY 28Similar
Q4 10:07
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+57
1.6%
Eli Heidenreich run for 57 yds to the AFA 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:07
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
1.5%
Isaiah Bryant run for 2 yds to the AFA 13Similar
Q4 10:07
2ND & 8
OPP 13
+1
1.5%
Amin Hassan run for 1 yd to the AFA 12Similar
Q4 6:58
3RD & 7
OPP 12
+12
0.2%
Alex Tecza run for 12 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · -7 yds · 1:240% → 0%
Q4 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
0.1%
Josh Johnson run for a loss of 4 yards to the AFA 19 Josh Johnson fumbled, recovered by AFA Tylor LathamSimilar
Q4 6:58
2ND & 16
OWN 19
-1
0.1%
Josh Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 18Similar
Q4 6:58
3RD & 17
OWN 18
0
0.1%
Josh Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:34
4TH & 17
OWN 18
0
0.0%
Luke Freer punt for 57 yds, fair catch by Eli Heidenreich at the NAVY 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:40100% → 100%
Q4 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
0.2%
Shane Reynolds run for 2 yds to the NAVY 27Similar
Q4 5:34
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
0.2%
Amin Hassan run for 3 yds to the NAVY 30Similar
Q4 4:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+2
0.1%
Shane Reynolds run for 2 yds to the NAVY 32Similar
Q4 3:54
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+48
0.1%
Riley Riethman punt for 48 yds , Brandon Engel returns for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 23END OF GAME
10 plays · 45 yds · 3:540% → 0%
Q4 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+7
0.0%
Owen Allen run for 7 yds to the AFA 17Similar
Q4 3:54
2ND & 3
OWN 17
+10
0.0%
Owen Allen run for 10 yds to the AFA 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
0.0%
Kaden Cloud run for 2 yds to the AFA 29Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+1
0.0%
Rocco Conti run for 1 yd to the AFA 30Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 7
OWN 30
+15
0.0%
Josh Johnson run for 15 yds to the AFA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
0.0%
Josh Johnson run for 3 yds to the AFA 48Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+2
0.0%
Josh Johnson run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 5
50
+1
0.0%
Kemper Hodges run for 1 yd to the NAVY 49Similar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 4
OPP 49
+4
0.0%
Josh Johnson run for 4 yds to the NAVY 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 2:37
Blake Horvath run for 2 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)
-15.3
TD · Q2 11:09
Quentin Hayes pass complete to Tre Roberson for 45 yds for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK)
+11
KEY PLAY · Q3 15:00
Quentin Hayes run for 16 yds to the AFA 41 for a 1ST down
+10.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com