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SDSU

San Diego State 21 at Central Michigan 22

CMU
2024 · Week 5 · Sep 28, 2024 · Kelly/Shorts Stadium
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Win probability · CMU
modelCMU aheadSDSU aheadconfidence bandkey playCMU scoreSDSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 9:38 · David Chapeau punt for 40 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+21.0+10.50−10.5−21.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 162Home team on offense−7.2Pregame prior+1.2Garbage-time factor−1.5Score differential−1.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 3:30: Danny O'Neil pass complete to Jude Wolfe for 26 yds for a TD Central Michigan Penalty, Defensive Offside (Yards) declined (Nick Lopez KICK) — SDSU win probability +14.9 pts (now 65%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 0:26: Tristan Mattson 34 yd FG GOOD — CMU win probability +7.7 pts (now 43%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 5:52: B.J. Harris run for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — CMU win probability +18.0 pts (now 54%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  4. TD · Q3 5:52: Timeout Central Michigan, clock 05:52 — SDSU win probability +10.4 pts (now 52%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:05: Tristan Mattson 46 yd FG GOOD — CMU win probability +75.4 pts (now 90%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CMU made the numbers' call on 10 of 14SDSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 12:26CMU 4th & 7 at SDSU 7, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 58.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.4%−<0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.5%
    91% to make
    Punt
    58.0%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:23SDSU 4th & 10 at CMU 38, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    40.8%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    40.8%−<0.1
    38% to make
    Punt
    40.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:09CMU 4th & 10 at CMU 29, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.5%−0.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:25CMU 4th & 1 at SDSU 32, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    56.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    55.7%−1.2
    51% to make
    Punt
    55.1%−1.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:50SDSU 4th & 4 at SDSU 43, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.1%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:35CMU 4th & 9 at CMU 39, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.3%−0.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:35CMU 4th & 9 at CMU 39, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.3%−0.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.9%
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:29SDSU 4th & 8 at SDSU 49, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.4%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.9%
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:23CMU 4th & 1 at CMU 41, down 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 52.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.0%−1.4
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:26CMU 4th & 5 at SDSU 16, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 38.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.7%−1.3
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.0%
    81% to make
    Punt
    33.3%−4.7
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:21SDSU 4th & 3 at SDSU 32, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.6%−0.4
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.0%
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:20CMU 4th & 3 at SDSU 43, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 38.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    40.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    36.6%−3.5
    28% to make
    Punt
    38.0%−2.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:52CMU 4th & 1 at SDSU 1, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    35.7%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    31.3%−4.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    19.7%−16.0
    average punt
  14. Q3 1:40SDSU 4th & 13 at CMU 43, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.4%−2.4
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    49.6%−2.2
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    51.8%
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:50CMU 4th & 2 at CMU 38, down 2
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.3 ptsPunted · 50.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.9%−2.3
    average punt
  16. Q4 14:50CMU 4th & 2 at CMU 38, down 2
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.3 ptsPunted · 50.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.9%−2.3
    average punt
  17. Q4 12:40SDSU 4th & 23 at SDSU 48, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.8%−7.7
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.5%
    average punt
  18. Q4 9:38CMU 4th & 15 at SDSU 40, down 2
    Close callPunted · 47.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.1%−2.7
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    46.7%
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    46.4%−0.4
    average punt
  19. Q4 4:44SDSU 4th & 12 at CMU 15, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 65.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.2%−5.8
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.1%
    83% to make
    Punt
    37.4%−25.7
    average punt
  20. Q4 1:56SDSU 4th & 9 at CMU 10, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 77.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.8%−3.6
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    73.4%
    88% to make
    Punt
    42.6%−30.8
    average punt
  21. Q4 0:42CMU 4th & 7 at CMU 44, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.0%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    15.3%−5.8
    average punt
  22. Q4 0:05CMU 4th & 10 at SDSU 28, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 30.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.9%−31.6
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.5%
    60% to make
    Punt
    11.2%−42.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CMU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2SDSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 6:13SDSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:31CMU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:43SDSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 3:30SDSU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 5:52CMU Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    52.7%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    52.4%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CMUDrive 1FG
8 plays · 61 yds · 2:2458% → 58%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
57.5%
Joe Labas pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:37
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+60
57.5%
Joe Labas pass complete to Gavin Harris for 60 yds to the SDSU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
57.7%
Bert Emanuel Jr. run for 2 yds to the SDSU 10Similar
Q1 13:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
57.8%
Bert Emanuel Jr. run for 3 yds to the SDSU 13Similar
Q1 12:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 13
+6
57.8%
Joe Labas pass complete to Gavin Harris for 6 yds to the SDSU 7Similar
Q1 12:26
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+25
58.0%
Tristan Mattson 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 2DOWNS
12 plays · 46 yds · 2:5742% → 42%
Q1 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
57.9%
Marquez Cooper run for no gain to the SDSU 25Similar
Q1 12:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
58.0%
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Louis Brown IV for 7 yds to the SDSU 32Similar
Q1 11:42
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+4
58.0%
Marquez Cooper run for 4 yds to the SDSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+10
57.9%
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Ja'Shaun Poke for 10 yds to the SDSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
57.7%
Marquez Cooper run for 3 yds to the SDSU 49Similar
Q1 10:23
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+1
57.7%
Marquez Cooper run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 9:56
3RD & 6
50
+12
57.8%
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Louis Brown IV for 12 yds to the CMU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:38
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
57.7%
Danny O'Neil pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:34
2ND & 10
OPP 38
0
57.7%
Danny O'Neil pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:31
3RD & 10
OPP 38
0
58.0%
Danny O'Neil pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:23
4TH & 10
OPP 38
+9
58.4%
Danny O'Neil run for 9 yds to the CMU 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:0759% → 59%
Q1 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
58.9%
Marion Lukes run for 2 yds to the CMU 31Similar
Q1 8:49
2ND & 8
OWN 31
0
58.6%
Joe Labas pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:41
3RD & 8
OWN 31
-2
58.4%
Joe Labas pass complete to Jesse Prewitt III for a loss of 2 yards to the CMU 29Similar
Q1 8:09
4TH & 10
OWN 29
0
58.5%
David Chapeau punt for 46 yds , Mekhi Shaw returns for no gain to the SDSU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 4TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 1:5141% → 45%
Q1 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
58.8%
Marquez Cooper run for 2 yds to the SDSU 27Similar
Q1 7:38
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
58.8%
Marquez Cooper run for no gain to the SDSU 27Similar
Q1 7:12
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+34
59.3%
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Nate Bennett for 34 yds to the CMU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:48
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-7
58.0%
Danny O'Neil sacked by Jason Williams for a loss of 7 yards to the CMU 46Similar
Q1 6:25
2ND & 17
OPP 46
+43
58.0%
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Louis Brown IV for 43 yds to the CMU 3 for a 1ST down Central Michigan Penalty, Defensive Offside (Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
54.7%
Marquez Cooper run for 3 yds for a TD (Nick Lopez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 5TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:3754% → 62%
Q1 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
54.3%
B.J. Harris run for 7 yds to the CMU 32Similar
Q1 5:34
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+17
54.7%
Joe Labas pass complete to Jesse Prewitt III for 17 yds to the CMU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
55.0%
B.J. Harris run for no gain to the CMU 49Similar
Q1 4:27
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
55.2%
Joe Labas pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:12
3RD & 10
OWN 49
+10
54.4%
Joe Labas run for 10 yds to the SDSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:37
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
55.6%
B.J. Harris run for 1 yd to the SDSU 40Similar
Q1 3:10
2ND & 9
OPP 40
0
55.4%
Joe Labas pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:58
3RD & 9
OPP 40
+8
55.0%
Joe Labas pass complete to B.J. Harris for 8 yds to the SDSU 32Similar
Q1 2:25
4TH & 1
OPP 32
+4
55.5%
Joe Labas run for 4 yds to the SDSU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+18
56.5%
Marion Lukes run for 18 yds to the SDSU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
56.5%
Marion Lukes run for 2 yds to the SDSU 8Similar
Q1 0:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
61.9%
Joe Labas pass complete to Marion Lukes for 8 yds for a TD (Tristan Mattson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 1:1040% → 40%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
60.0%
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Louis Brown IV for 12 yds to the SDSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
59.4%
Marquez Cooper run for 1 yd to the SDSU 38Similar
Q2 14:29
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+5
59.3%
Marquez Cooper run for 5 yds to the SDSU 43Similar
Q2 13:58
3RD & 4
OWN 43
0
58.8%
Danny O'Neil pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:50
4TH & 4
OWN 43
+4
60.1%
Tyler Pastula punt for 44 yds , Donte Kent returns for 4 yds to the CMU 17 Donte Kent fumbled, recovered by SDSU Brady AndersonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 7TD
5 plays · 17 yds · 1:0043% → 49%
Q2 13:43
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
57.4%
Central Michigan Penalty, Personal Foul (Elijah Rikard) to the CMU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
57.4%
Central Michigan Penalty, UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (2 Yards) to the CMU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+3
57.3%
Marquez Cooper run for 3 yds to the CMU 5Similar
Q2 12:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
51.1%
Jude Wolfe 5 Yd pass from Danny O'Neil (Nick Lopez Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 2:0253% → 52%
Q2 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
53.1%
Marion Lukes run for 4 yds to the CMU 29Similar
Q2 11:59
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+9
53.2%
Joe Labas pass complete to Jesse Prewitt III for 9 yds to the CMU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
53.9%
Marion Lukes run for 1 yd to the CMU 39Similar
Q2 10:45
2ND & 9
OWN 39
0
53.7%
Joe Labas pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:41
3RD & 9
OWN 39
0
52.9%
Joe Labas pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:35
4TH & 9
OWN 39
0
52.1%
David Chapeau punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Mekhi Shaw at the SDSU 24Similar
Q2 10:35
4TH & 9
OWN 39
0
52.1%
David Chapeau punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Mekhi Shaw at the SDSU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 9PUNT
9 plays · 25 yds · 1:5749% → 48%
Q2 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+10
51.1%
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Louis Brown IV for 10 yds to the SDSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
50.6%
Marquez Cooper run for 6 yds to the SDSU 40Similar
Q2 9:55
2ND & 4
OWN 40
+3
51.1%
Marquez Cooper run for 3 yds to the SDSU 43Similar
Q2 9:22
3RD & 1
OWN 43
+4
51.5%
Marquez Cooper run for 4 yds to the SDSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
50.8%
Danny O'Neil pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:10
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+2
50.9%
Marquez Cooper run for 2 yds to the SDSU 49Similar
Q2 8:36
3RD & 8
OWN 49
0
50.9%
Danny O'Neil pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:29
4TH & 8
OWN 49
0
52.4%
Tyler Pastula punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 10PUNT
10 plays · 39 yds · 4:0054% → 56%
Q2 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+3
53.8%
B.J. Harris run for 3 yds to the CMU 5Similar
Q2 7:51
2ND & 7
OWN 5
+4
53.0%
B.J. Harris run for 4 yds to the CMU 9Similar
Q2 7:13
3RD & 3
OWN 9
+4
52.5%
Joe Labas pass complete to Evan Boyd for 4 yds to the CMU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+19
53.3%
Bert Emanuel Jr. run for 19 yds to the CMU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
55.7%
B.J. Harris run for 5 yds to the CMU 37Similar
Q2 5:33
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+3
57.2%
Joe Labas pass complete to Jesse Prewitt III for 3 yds to the CMU 40Similar
Q2 4:54
3RD & 2
OWN 40
+1
57.0%
B.J. Harris run for 1 yd to the CMU 41Similar
Q2 4:23
4TH & 1
OWN 41
0
56.0%
David Chapeau punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Mekhi Shaw at the SDSU 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 11TD
3 plays · 73 yds · 0:4347% → 65%
Q2 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+47
52.8%
Marquez Cooper run for 47 yds to the CMU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:54
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
49.9%
Marquez Cooper run for no gain to the CMU 26Similar
Q2 3:30
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+26
35.0%
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Jude Wolfe for 26 yds for a TD Central Michigan Penalty, Defensive Offside (Yards) declined (Nick Lopez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 12FG
14 plays · 59 yds · 2:5933% → 43%
Q2 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
33.1%
Joe Labas pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:17
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
32.8%
Bert Emanuel Jr. run for 6 yds to the CMU 31Similar
Q2 2:57
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+5
32.6%
Joe Labas pass complete to Jesse Prewitt III for 5 yds to the CMU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
32.9%
Joe Labas pass complete to Solomon Davis for 6 yds to the CMU 42Similar
Q2 1:54
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+10
34.8%
Joe Labas pass complete to Jesse Prewitt III for 10 yds to the SDSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:48
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
35.6%
Marion Lukes run for 2 yds to the SDSU 46Similar
Q2 1:21
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+15
35.2%
Marion Lukes run for 15 yds to the SDSU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+10
36.6%
Joe Labas pass complete to Chris Parker for 10 yds to the SDSU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
37.1%
Marion Lukes run for no gain to the SDSU 21Similar
Q2 0:34
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+5
36.9%
Joe Labas pass complete to Evan Boyd for 5 yds to the SDSU 16Similar
Q2 0:29
3RD & 5
OPP 16
0
35.5%
Joe Labas pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:26
4TH & 5
OPP 16
+34
43.2%
Tristan Mattson 34 yd FG GOOD Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:0055% → 55%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
45.1%
Marquez Cooper run for 2 yds to the SDSU 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:3162% → 62%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
38.1%
Danny O'Neil sacked by Jason Williams for a loss of 2 yards to the SDSU 23Similar
Q3 14:21
2ND & 12
OWN 23
0
38.4%
Marquez Cooper run for no gain to the SDSU 23Similar
Q3 13:51
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+9
39.0%
Danny O'Neil run for 9 yds to the SDSU 32Similar
Q3 13:21
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+3
38.5%
Tyler Pastula punt for 48 yds , Donte Kent returns for 3 yds to the CMU 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 15TD
18 plays · 77 yds · 7:2539% → 58%
Q3 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
39.1%
Joe Labas pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:11
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+2
38.9%
Marion Lukes run for 2 yds to the CMU 25Similar
Q3 12:33
3RD & 8
OWN 25
+15
37.1%
(12:40) No Huddle-Shotgun Labas,Joe pass incomplete deep middle to Parker,Chris thrown to SDSU28 PENALTY SDSU Pass Interference (Phillips,Bryce) 15 yards from CMU25 to CMU40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
40.5%
Joe Labas pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:22
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+4
39.4%
Marion Lukes run for 4 yds to the CMU 44Similar
Q3 11:35
3RD & 6
OWN 44
+6
39.2%
Joe Labas pass complete to Marion Lukes for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:54
1ST & 10
50
0
41.1%
Joe Labas pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:48
2ND & 10
50
+5
40.4%
B.J. Harris run for 5 yds to the CMU 45Similar
Q3 10:05
3RD & 15
OWN 45
+12
36.5%
Joe Labas pass complete to DeCorion Temple for 12 yds to the SDSU 43Similar
Q3 9:20
4TH & 3
OPP 43
+23
38.5%
David Chapeau pass complete to Justin Whiteside for 23 yds to the SDSU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:47
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+8
42.1%
Bert Emanuel Jr. run for 8 yds to the SDSU 12Similar
Q3 8:26
2ND & 2
OPP 12
+4
41.9%
Bert Emanuel Jr. run for 4 yds to the SDSU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-3
41.1%
Joe Labas sacked by Trey White for a loss of 3 yards to the SDSU 11Similar
Q3 7:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
-4
40.8%
Joe Labas sacked by Trey White for a loss of 4 yards to the SDSU 15Similar
Q3 6:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 15
+14
36.1%
Joe Labas pass complete to Evan Boyd for 14 yds to the SDSU 1Similar
Q3 5:52
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
54.2%
B.J. Harris run for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
Q3 5:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
58.2%
Labas,Joe pass attempt failed PENALTY SDSU Pass Interference (Johnson,Chris) 1 yard from SDSU03 to SDSU02. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 16PUNT
11 plays · 32 yds · 4:0752% → 52%
Q3 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
47.7%
Marquez Cooper run for 4 yds to the SDSU 29Similar
Q3 5:22
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+7
46.4%
Marquez Cooper run for 7 yds to the SDSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+10
45.3%
(05:06) No Huddle-Shotgun O'Neil,Danny pass incomplete deep right to Brown IV,Louis thrown to CMU30 PENALTY CMU Holding (Jackson,Jaion) 10 yards from SDSU36 to SDSU46, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
43.8%
Marquez Cooper run for 1 yd to the SDSU 45Similar
Q3 4:14
2ND & 11
OWN 45
+2
44.6%
Danny O'Neil run for 2 yds to the SDSU 47Similar
Q3 3:48
3RD & 9
OWN 47
+13
44.7%
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Ja'Shaun Poke for 13 yds to the CMU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:36
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
42.6%
Marquez Cooper run for no gain to the CMU 40Similar
Q3 3:00
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+4
42.6%
Marquez Cooper run for 4 yds to the CMU 36Similar
Q3 2:18
3RD & 6
OPP 36
-7
42.8%
Danny O'Neil sacked by Caleb Spann for a loss of 7 yards to the CMU 43Similar
Q3 1:40
4TH & 13
OPP 43
0
48.1%
Tyler Pastula punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 1:4446% → 45%
Q3 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
45.9%
Bert Emanuel Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:28
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+10
45.6%
Marion Lukes run for 10 yds to the CMU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
46.3%
Marion Lukes run for no gain to the CMU 30Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+8
45.8%
Marion Lukes run for 8 yds to the CMU 38Similar
Q4 14:57
3RD & 2
OWN 38
0
49.0%
Joe Labas pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:50
4TH & 2
OWN 38
0
45.4%
David Chapeau punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Mekhi Shaw at the SDSU 34Similar
Q4 14:50
4TH & 2
OWN 38
0
45.4%
David Chapeau punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Mekhi Shaw at the SDSU 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 18PUNT
9 plays · 14 yds · 2:0859% → 58%
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+15
40.7%
Central Michigan Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Justin Whiteside) to the SDSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+8
38.2%
Marquez Cooper run for 8 yds to the CMU 43Similar
Q4 14:30
2ND & 2
OPP 43
+4
36.9%
Cam Davis run for 4 yds to the CMU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:02
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
36.3%
Danny O'Neil pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:56
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+1
36.5%
Marquez Cooper run for 1 yd to the CMU 40Similar
Q4 13:31
3RD & 11
OPP 40
-7
37.4%
Danny O'Neil sacked for a loss of 7 yards to the CMU 47Similar
Q4 12:59
4TH & 18
OPP 47
-5
41.5%
PENALTY SDSU False Start (Herman,DJ) 5 yards from CMU47 to SDSU48. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:40
4TH & 23
OWN 48
0
41.6%
Tyler Pastula punt for 52 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 40 yds · 2:4738% → 38%
Q4 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
38.1%
Joe Labas run for 2 yds to the CMU 36 Joe Labas fumbled, recovered by SDSU Eric Butler for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
39.8%
B.J. Harris run for 11 yds to the CMU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+18
42.8%
B.J. Harris run for 18 yds to the SDSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:48
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
45.7%
B.J. Harris run for 1 yd to the SDSU 34Similar
Q4 10:05
2ND & 9
OPP 34
-6
46.0%
Joe Labas sacked by Trey White for a loss of 6 yards to the SDSU 40Similar
Q4 9:45
3RD & 15
OPP 40
0
40.9%
Joe Labas pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:38
4TH & 15
OPP 40
0
37.8%
David Chapeau punt for 40 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 20MISSED FG
14 plays · 65 yds · 4:4960% → 61%
Q4 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
40.2%
Marquez Cooper run for 1 yd to the SDSU 21Similar
Q4 9:05
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+8
40.5%
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Louis Brown IV for 8 yds to the SDSU 29Similar
Q4 8:46
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+2
40.6%
Marquez Cooper run for 2 yds to the SDSU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
38.9%
Danny O'Neil run for 2 yds to the SDSU 33Similar
Q4 7:52
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+3
44.6%
Marquez Cooper run for 3 yds to the SDSU 36Similar
Q4 7:17
3RD & 5
OWN 36
+9
45.0%
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Jude Wolfe for 9 yds to the SDSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
41.9%
Marquez Cooper run for 1 yd to the SDSU 46Similar
Q4 6:20
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+41
41.6%
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Louis Brown IV for 41 yds to the CMU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:02
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
34.8%
Marquez Cooper run for 2 yds to the CMU 11Similar
Q4 5:32
2ND & 8
OPP 11
+4
32.6%
Ja'Shaun Poke run for 4 yds to the CMU 15Similar
Q4 4:49
3RD & 12
OPP 15
0
34.6%
Danny O'Neil pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:44
4TH & 12
OPP 15
+33
39.2%
Nick Lopez 33 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 21INT
5 plays · 42 yds · 2:2240% → 41%
Q4 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
40.3%
Marion Lukes run for 2 yds to the CMU 22Similar
Q4 4:19
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+43
39.4%
Joe Labas pass complete to Marion Lukes for 43 yds to the SDSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
49.7%
Marion Lukes run for 3 yds to the SDSU 32Similar
Q4 3:08
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+6
49.7%
B.J. Harris run for 6 yds to the SDSU 38Similar
Q4 2:17
3RD & 13
OPP 38
0
40.9%
Joe Labas pass intercepted Bryce Phillips return for no gain to the CMU 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 22MISSED FG
7 plays · 1 yds · 0:1679% → 77%
Q4 2:12
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
21.4%
Marquez Cooper run for 1 yd to the CMU 12Similar
Q4 2:09
2ND & 11
OPP 12
+3
21.9%
Marquez Cooper run for 3 yds to the CMU 9Similar
Q4 2:05
3RD & 8
OPP 9
+1
23.7%
Marquez Cooper run for 1 yd to the CMU 10Similar
Q4 1:56
4TH & 9
OPP 10
+28
22.7%
Nick Lopez 28 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 23FG
18 plays · 52 yds · 1:4729% → 90%
Q4 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
28.8%
Joe Labas pass complete to Evan Boyd for 10 yds to the CMU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
29.5%
Joe Labas pass complete to Evan Boyd for 6 yds to the CMU 36Similar
Q4 1:42
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+2
32.0%
Joe Labas pass complete to Chris Parker for 2 yds to the CMU 38Similar
Q4 1:38
3RD & 2
OWN 38
+3
30.3%
Marion Lukes run for 3 yds to the CMU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
32.4%
Joe Labas pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:22
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
30.1%
Joe Labas pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:14
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+3
26.0%
Joe Labas run for 3 yds to the CMU 44Similar
Q4 0:42
4TH & 7
OWN 44
+16
15.3%
Joe Labas pass complete to Chris Parker for 16 yds to the SDSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:28
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
16.7%
Joe Labas pass complete to DeCorion Temple for 5 yds to the SDSU 35Similar
Q4 0:28
2ND & 5
OPP 35
-5
23.7%
PENALTY CMU False Start (Boyd,Evan) 5 yards from SDSU35 to SDSU40. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:25
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
16.1%
Joe Labas pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:20
3RD & 10
OPP 40
+12
14.6%
Joe Labas pass complete to Evan Boyd for 12 yds to the SDSU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:19
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
23.2%
Joe Labas pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:14
2ND & 10
OPP 28
0
18.7%
Joe Labas pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:10
3RD & 10
OPP 28
0
14.7%
Joe Labas pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:05
4TH & 10
OPP 28
+46
90.1%
Tristan Mattson 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 24END OF GAME
2 plays · 16 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+16
81.1%
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Louis Brown IV for 16 yds to the SDSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 0:05
Tristan Mattson 46 yd FG GOOD
+75.4
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+18.9
TD · Q3 5:52
B.J. Harris run for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
+18
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com