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FRES

Fresno State 14 at UNLV 59

UNLV
2024 · Week 5 · Sep 28, 2024 · Allegiant Stadium
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Win probability · UNLV
modelUNLV aheadFRES aheadconfidence bandkey playUNLV scoreFRES score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 10:14 · Mikey Keene pass incomplete
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 88Home team on offense+29.2Score differential+24.9Blowout margin+12.3Garbage-time factor+7.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 6:20: Hajj-Malik Williams run for 6 yds for a TD (Caden Chittenden KICK) — UNLV win probability +3.4 pts (now 58%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 0:27: Ricky White III 13 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Caden Chittenden Kick) — UNLV win probability +6.7 pts (now 65%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:57: Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Ricky White III for 12 yds for a TD (Caden Chittenden KICK) — UNLV win probability +14.3 pts (now 90%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 12:48: Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Kaleo Ballungay for 17 yds for a TD (Caden Chittenden KICK) — UNLV win probability +6.1 pts (now 98%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 2:33: Malik Sherrod run for 6 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK) — FRES win probability +3.2 pts (now 4%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNLV made the numbers' call on 2 of 4FRES made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 12:58UNLV 4th & 1 at UNLV 14, tied
    Close callPunted · 58.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.1%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:04FRES 4th & 8 at UNLV 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.7%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:11UNLV 4th & 4 at FRES 43, tied
    Close callPunted · 58.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    58.6%−0.2
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    58.7%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:36FRES 4th & 11 at FRES 3, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.8%−0.6
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.3%
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:27FRES 4th & 21 at FRES 43, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.9%−1.4
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:36FRES 4th & 19 at UNLV 40, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.7%−1.3
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    28.7%−0.3
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    29.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:38UNLV 4th & 1 at FRES 1, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 74.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    74.1%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    71.3%−2.8
    94% to make
    Punt
    64.1%−10.0
    average punt
  8. Q3 10:14FRES 4th & 14 at UNLV 40, down 28
    Close callWent for it · 1.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.1%−0.3
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    1.3%−0.1
    34% to make
    Punt
    1.4%
    average punt
  9. Q3 6:52UNLV 4th & 11 at FRES 27, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.0%−0.2
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.2%
    62% to make
    Punt
    98.3%−0.9
    average punt
  10. Q4 13:00FRES 4th & 1 at FRES 25, down 31
    Close callPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 8:59FRES 4th & 3 at midfield, down 38
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 1:52FRES 4th & 3 at UNLV 45, down 45
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%−<0.1
    25% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNLV made the numbers' call on 7 of 7FRES made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 6:20UNLV Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:27UNLV Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:57UNLV Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 12:48UNLV Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 2:33FRES Touchdown, down 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 14:52UNLV Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 11:04UNLV Touchdown, up 37 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 6:36FRES Touchdown, down 32 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.2%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.2%
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 3:10UNLV Touchdown, up 45 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FRESDrive 1INT
2 plays · 22 yds · 0:3747% → 47%
Q1 14:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
52.9%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Mac Dalena for 22 yds to the FRES 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:21
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
52.9%
Joshua Wood pass intercepted Cameron Oliver return for a loss of 3 yards to the UNLV 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:1153% → 53%
Q1 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+3
53.0%
Kylin James run for 3 yds to the UNLV 8Similar
Q1 13:39
2ND & 7
OWN 8
0
53.1%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:31
3RD & 7
OWN 8
+6
53.0%
Hajj-Malik Williams run for 6 yds to the UNLV 14Similar
Q1 12:58
4TH & 1
OWN 14
0
53.0%
Marshall Nichols punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:4647% → 47%
Q1 12:50
1ST & 10
50
0
52.9%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:40
2ND & 10
50
+2
53.0%
Elijah Gilliam run for 2 yds to the UNLV 48Similar
Q1 12:09
3RD & 8
OPP 48
0
53.0%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:04
4TH & 8
OPP 48
0
53.3%
Clay Lawrence punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 44 yds · 2:4553% → 54%
Q1 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+12
53.3%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Ricky White III for 12 yds to the UNLV 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
53.4%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for 16 yds to the UNLV 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+10
53.8%
WILLIAMS, Hajj-Malik scrambles to the right for a gain of 7 yards to the UNLV48 (AGINA, Kosi), clock 10:47. PENALTY FSU Holding on LOCKRIDGE, Cameron enforced 10 yards from the UNLV41 to the FSU49 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 10:24
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
54.1%
Greg Burrell run for 2 yds to the FRES 47Similar
Q1 9:56
2ND & 8
OPP 47
0
54.2%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:39
3RD & 8
OPP 47
+4
54.0%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Jai'Den Thomas for 4 yds to the FRES 43Similar
Q1 9:11
4TH & 4
OPP 43
0
54.0%
Marshall Nichols punt for 39 yds, downed at the FRES 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:3346% → 46%
Q1 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 4
-1
53.7%
Malik Sherrod run for a loss of 1 yard to the FRES 3Similar
Q1 8:26
2ND & 11
OWN 3
0
53.5%
Malik Sherrod run for no gain to the FRES 3Similar
Q1 7:42
3RD & 11
OWN 3
0
54.0%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:36
4TH & 11
OWN 3
+18
54.2%
Clay Lawrence punt for 44 yds , Jacob De Jesus returns for 18 yds to the FRES 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 6TD
3 plays · 29 yds · 1:0555% → 58%
Q1 7:25
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+18
54.8%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Ricky White III for 18 yds to the FRES 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:58
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
54.9%
Hajj-Malik Williams run for 5 yds to the FRES 6Similar
Q1 6:20
2ND & 5
OPP 6
+6
58.2%
Hajj-Malik Williams run for 6 yds for a TD (Caden Chittenden KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 7PUNT TD
10 plays · 18 yds · 5:5343% → 35%
Q1 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
57.1%
Malik Sherrod run for 2 yds to the FRES 27Similar
Q1 5:34
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
57.4%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Raylen Sharpe for 7 yds to the FRES 34Similar
Q1 4:58
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
57.5%
Elijah Gilliam run for 3 yds to the FRES 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-4
57.7%
Malik Sherrod run for a loss of 4 yards to the FRES 33Similar
Q1 3:41
2ND & 14
OWN 33
+7
58.5%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Malik Sherrod for 7 yds to the FRES 40Similar
Q1 3:08
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+14
58.4%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Kamron Beachem for 14 yds to the UNLV 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:25
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-10
57.3%
Mikey Keene sacked by Mani Powell for a loss of 10 yards to the FRES 44Similar
Q1 1:43
2ND & 20
OWN 44
+10
58.7%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Josiah Freeman for 10 yds to the UNLV 46Similar
Q1 1:02
3RD & 10
OPP 46
-11
58.6%
Mikey Keene sacked for a loss of 11 yards to the FRES 43 Mikey Keene fumbled, recovered by FRES , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 0:27
4TH & 21
OWN 43
+13
65.3%
Ricky White III 13 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Caden Chittenden Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 8PUNT
11 plays · 35 yds · 3:5135% → 33%
Q1 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
64.8%
Malik Sherrod run for no gain to the FRES 25Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
65.2%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Raylen Sharpe for 15 yds to the FRES 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
65.0%
Joshua Wood pass complete to Raylen Sharpe for no gain to the FRES 40Similar
Q2 13:52
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+4
65.9%
Joshua Wood run for 4 yds to the FRES 44Similar
Q2 13:08
3RD & 6
OWN 44
+25
65.2%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Raylen Sharpe for 25 yds to the UNLV 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
63.9%
Malik Sherrod run for 1 yd to the UNLV 30Similar
Q2 12:18
2ND & 19
OPP 40
0
65.2%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:16
2ND & 9
OPP 30
-10
64.0%
KEENE, Mikey pass to the left incomplete intended for MOSS, Jalen thrown to the UNLV19, clock 12:16. PENALTY FSU Holding on TAUMALOLO, Daniel enforced 10 yards from the UNLV30 to the UNLV40 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 12:14
3RD & 19
OPP 40
0
65.9%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Malik Sherrod for no gain to the UNLV 40Similar
Q2 11:36
4TH & 19
OPP 40
0
66.7%
Clay Lawrence punt for 27 yds, fair catch by Jacob De Jesus at the UNLV 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 9DOWNS
6 plays · 81 yds · 2:5368% → 71%
Q2 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+21
68.3%
Hajj-Malik Williams run for 21 yds to the UNLV 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+53
69.9%
Kylin James run for 53 yds to the FRES 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
70.7%
Hajj-Malik Williams run for 7 yds to the FRES 1Similar
Q2 9:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
71.0%
Hajj-Malik Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the FRES 2Similar
Q2 9:04
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
71.0%
Devin Green run for 1 yd to the FRES 1Similar
Q2 8:38
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
70.6%
Hajj-Malik Williams run for no gain to the FRES 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 10INT
6 plays · 45 yds · 2:5730% → 30%
Q2 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+3
69.9%
Mikey Keene run for 3 yds to the FRES 4Similar
Q2 8:03
2ND & 7
OWN 4
+3
70.6%
Elijah Gilliam run for 3 yds to the FRES 7Similar
Q2 7:24
3RD & 4
OWN 7
+21
71.3%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Mac Dalena for 21 yds to the FRES 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
70.1%
Elijah Gilliam run for 4 yds to the FRES 32Similar
Q2 6:10
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+14
70.3%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Jalen Moss for 14 yds to the FRES 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-27
70.2%
Mikey Keene pass intercepted Johnathan Baldwin return for 27 yds to the FRES 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 11TD
7 plays · 42 yds · 3:2073% → 90%
Q2 5:17
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
73.1%
Greg Burrell run for 4 yds to the FRES 38Similar
Q2 4:49
2ND & 6
OPP 38
+3
73.3%
Greg Burrell run for 3 yds to the FRES 35Similar
Q2 4:11
3RD & 3
OPP 35
+4
73.1%
Jai'Den Thomas run for 4 yds to the FRES 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:36
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+12
74.7%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Ricky White III for 12 yds to the FRES 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:04
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+6
75.1%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Ricky White III for 6 yds to the FRES 13Similar
Q2 2:30
2ND & 4
OPP 13
+1
75.8%
Jai'Den Thomas run for 1 yd to the FRES 12Similar
Q2 1:57
3RD & 3
OPP 12
+12
90.1%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Ricky White III for 12 yds for a TD (Caden Chittenden KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 12INT
8 plays · 45 yds · 1:1813% → 14%
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
87.3%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Malik Sherrod for 2 yds to the FRES 27Similar
Q2 1:23
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
87.5%
Mikey Keene run for no gain to the FRES 27Similar
Q2 1:08
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+28
88.0%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Raylen Sharpe for 28 yds to the UNLV 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
86.2%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+15
86.8%
UNLV Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Cameron Oliver) to the UNLV 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
85.4%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:37
2ND & 10
OPP 30
0
85.9%
Mikey Keene pass intercepted Jalen Catalon return for no gain to the UNLV 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 13END OF HALF
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:1292% → 91%
Q2 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
91.8%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:22
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+1
91.8%
Jai'Den Thomas run for 1 yd to the UNLV 2Similar
Q2 0:16
3RD & 9
OWN 2
+2
90.8%
Hajj-Malik Williams run for 2 yds to the UNLV 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 14TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 2:1091% → 98%
Q3 14:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
90.6%
Greg Burrell run for a loss of 3 yards to the UNLV 22Similar
Q3 14:31
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+19
90.7%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Ricky White III for 19 yds to the UNLV 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
91.8%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Ricky White III for 8 yds to the UNLV 49Similar
Q3 13:34
2ND & 2
OWN 49
+34
91.8%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for 34 yds to the FRES 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:48
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
97.9%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Kaleo Ballungay for 17 yds for a TD (Caden Chittenden KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 15DOWNS
8 plays · 35 yds · 2:392% → 2%
Q3 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
98.1%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Jalen Moss for 13 yds to the FRES 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-7
98.1%
Mikey Keene run for a loss of 7 yards to the FRES 31 Mikey Keene fumbled, recovered by FRES Mikey Keene M. Keene return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q3 11:33
2ND & 17
OWN 31
+15
98.3%
UNLV Penalty, Roughing the Passer on ELAD, Jett enforced (Jett Elad) to the UNLV 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:02
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-4
98.3%
Mac Dalena run for a loss of 4 yards to the UNLV 40Similar
Q3 10:21
2ND & 14
OPP 40
0
98.5%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:17
3RD & 14
OPP 40
0
98.5%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:14
4TH & 14
OPP 40
0
98.6%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
98.5%
(10:09) WILLIAMS, Hajj-Malik pass deep up the middle intercepted by SHARPE, Raylen at the FSU10 intended for WHITE III, Ricky. Sharpe return for 0 yards to the FSU10, End of Play, clock 10:01. PENALTY FSU Pass Interference on LOCKRIDGE, Cameron enforced 15 yards to the FSU45 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 16FG
6 plays · 33 yds · 3:0999% → 99%
Q3 10:01
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
98.7%
Kylin James run for 3 yds to the FRES 42Similar
Q3 9:25
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+16
98.8%
Hajj-Malik Williams run for 16 yds to the FRES 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:52
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
98.9%
Kylin James run for 3 yds to the FRES 23Similar
Q3 8:12
2ND & 7
OPP 23
-4
98.9%
Kylin James run for a loss of 4 yards to the FRES 27Similar
Q3 7:33
3RD & 11
OPP 27
0
99.2%
Jai'Den Thomas run for no gain to the FRES 27Similar
Q3 6:52
4TH & 11
OPP 27
+45
99.2%
Caden Chittenden 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 17TD
13 plays · 66 yds · 4:061% → 4%
Q3 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+8
99.1%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Raylen Sharpe for 8 yds to the FRES 42Similar
Q3 6:09
2ND & 2
OWN 42
0
98.8%
Malik Sherrod run for no gain to the FRES 42Similar
Q3 5:54
3RD & 2
OWN 42
+8
98.8%
(05:54) KEENE, Mikey pass to the right incomplete intended for SHARPE, Raylen thrown to the FSU50, clock 05:36. PENALTY UNLV Pass Interference on BALDWIN, Johnathan enforced at the spot of the foul for 8 yards to the FSU50 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 5:34
1ST & 10
50
0
98.9%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:28
2ND & 10
50
+8
98.9%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Jalen Moss for 8 yds to the UNLV 42Similar
Q3 4:47
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+3
98.7%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Kamron Beachem for 3 yds to the UNLV 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
99.0%
Elijah Gilliam run for 6 yds to the UNLV 33Similar
Q3 4:09
2ND & 4
OPP 33
+7
98.8%
Elijah Gilliam run for 7 yds to the UNLV 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:33
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
99.4%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Raylen Sharpe for 4 yds to the UNLV 22Similar
Q3 2:57
2ND & 6
OPP 22
+9
99.4%
(02:57) KEENE, Mikey pass deep to the right incomplete intended for MOSS, Jalen thrown to the UNLV0, clock 02:53. PENALTY UNLV Pass Interference on GRIMES, Tony enforced at the spot of the foul for 9 yards to the UNLV13 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 2:51
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
99.5%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:33
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+7
99.5%
UNLV Penalty, Illegal Block (Jackson Woodard) to the UNLV 6Similar
Q3 2:33
2ND & 3
OPP 6
+6
96.3%
Malik Sherrod run for 6 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 18TD
7 plays · 68 yds · 2:3297% → 100%
Q3 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+8
97.3%
Jai'Den Thomas run for 8 yds to the UNLV 40Similar
Q3 1:57
2ND & 2
OWN 40
+9
97.5%
Jai'Den Thomas run for 9 yds to the UNLV 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+13
97.7%
Hajj-Malik Williams run for 13 yds to the FRES 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-10
97.8%
(00:53) WILLIAMS, Hajj-Malik pass to the left complete for 37 yards to DE JESUS, Jacob caught at the FSU40 and advanced to the FSU1 (SHARPE, Raylen), clock 00:43. PENALTY UNLV Holding on BRADLEY, Jaden enforced 10 yards from the FSU38 to the FSU48 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 0:43
1ST & 20
OPP 48
+24
97.8%
Hajj-Malik Williams run for 24 yds to the FRES 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:04
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+9
98.0%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Ricky White III for 9 yds to the FRES 15Similar
Q4 14:52
2ND & 1
OPP 15
+15
99.6%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Ricky White III for 15 yds for a TD (Caden Chittenden KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 19 yds · 1:440% → 0%
Q4 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+10
99.8%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Raylen Sharpe for 10 yds to the FRES 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+6
99.8%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Bryson Donelson for 6 yds to the FRES 22Similar
Q4 13:44
2ND & 4
OWN 22
0
99.8%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:43
3RD & 4
OWN 22
+3
99.8%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Jalen Moss for 3 yds to the FRES 25Similar
Q4 13:00
4TH & 1
OWN 25
0
99.8%
Clay Lawrence punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jacob De Jesus at the UNLV 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 20TD
5 plays · 66 yds · 1:49100% → 100%
Q4 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
99.7%
Greg Burrell run for 4 yds to the UNLV 38Similar
Q4 12:18
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+15
99.8%
Fresno State Penalty, Roughing the Passer on FOREMAN, Korey enforced (Korey Foreman) to the FRES 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:03
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+20
99.8%
Hajj-Malik Williams run for 20 yds to the FRES 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:34
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
99.8%
Devin Green run for 4 yds to the FRES 7Similar
Q4 11:04
2ND & 6
OPP 7
+7
99.8%
Jai'Den Thomas run for 7 yds for a TD (Caden Chittenden KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 21TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:260% → 0%
Q4 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
99.9%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Jalen Moss for 18 yds to the FRES 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
99.9%
Malik Sherrod run for 1 yd to the FRES 44Similar
Q4 10:18
2ND & 9
OWN 44
-7
99.9%
Mikey Keene sacked by Fisher Camac for a loss of 7 yards to the FRES 37Similar
Q4 9:39
3RD & 16
OWN 37
+13
99.9%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Raylen Sharpe for 13 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 8:59
4TH & 3
50
+6
99.9%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Raylen Sharpe for 6 yds to the UNLV 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:27
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-2
99.9%
Mikey Keene sacked by Jeremiah Vessel for a loss of 2 yards to the UNLV 46Similar
Q4 7:52
2ND & 12
OPP 46
+20
99.9%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Jalen Moss for 20 yds to the UNLV 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:25
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+12
99.9%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Elijah Gilliam for 12 yds to the UNLV 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:03
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
99.9%
Elijah Gilliam run for 5 yds to the UNLV 9Similar
Q4 6:36
2ND & 5
OPP 9
+9
99.9%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Mac Dalena for 9 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 22INT
3 plays · 1 yds · 0:350% → 0%
Q4 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.9%
Bryson Donelson run for 1 yd to the FRES 26Similar
Q4 5:52
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-15
99.9%
Jayden Mandal pass intercepted Jeremiah Vessel return for 15 yds to the FRES 25Similar
Q4 5:46
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-5
99.9%
UNLV Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the FRES 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 23TD
6 plays · 25 yds · 2:21100% → 100%
Q4 5:31
1ST & 15
OPP 30
+7
99.9%
Greg Burrell run for 7 yds to the FRES 23Similar
Q4 4:54
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+2
99.9%
Greg Burrell run for 2 yds to the FRES 21Similar
Q4 4:09
3RD & 6
OPP 21
+5
99.9%
Greg Burrell run for 5 yds to the FRES 16Similar
Q4 4:09
4TH & 1
OPP 16
+8
99.9%
Fresno State Penalty, Personal Foul (Tim Thomas) to the FRES 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
99.9%
Timothy Conerly run for 7 yds to the FRES 1Similar
Q4 3:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.9%
Cameron Friel run for 1 yd for a TD (Caden Chittenden KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 24DOWNS
6 plays · 28 yds · 1:150% → 0%
Q4 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
100.0%
Johnathan Arceneaux run for 3 yds to the FRES 28Similar
Q4 2:38
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+20
100.0%
Johnathan Arceneaux run for 20 yds to the FRES 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
100.0%
Johnathan Arceneaux run for 7 yds to the UNLV 45Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 3
OPP 45
0
100.0%
Johnathan Arceneaux run for no gain to the UNLV 45Similar
Q4 1:58
3RD & 3
OPP 45
0
100.0%
Joshua Wood pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:52
4TH & 3
OPP 45
-2
100.0%
Joshua Wood run for a loss of 2 yards to the UNLV 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 25END OF GAME
3 plays · 8 yds · 1:27100% → 100%
Q4 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
99.9%
DeAngelo Irvin Jr. run for 5 yds to the FRES 48Similar
Q4 1:02
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+5
100.0%
Devin Green run for 5 yds to the FRES 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:22
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-2
100.0%
(00:22) [NHSG] Kneel down by UNLV at FSU45 (team loss of 2).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:57
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Ricky White III for 12 yds for a TD (Caden Chittenden KICK)
+14.3
TD · Q1 0:27
Ricky White III 13 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Caden Chittenden Kick)
+6.7
TD · Q3 12:48
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Kaleo Ballungay for 17 yds for a TD (Caden Chittenden KICK)
+6.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com