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Win probability · WYO
modelWYO aheadAF aheadconfidence bandkey playWYO scoreAF score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · [NH] Kneel down by SVOBODA, Evan at AFA45 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 6:47: Kade Frew run for 4 yds for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK) — AF win probability +9.2 pts (now 60%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
- FG · Q2 0:23: Matthew Dapore 27 yd FG GOOD — AF win probability +6.1 pts (now 65%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
- TD · Q3 11:54: Evan Svoboda run for 1 yd for a TD (John Hoyland KICK) — WYO win probability +14.7 pts (now 58%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
- TD · Q3 3:32: Tyler King run for 3 yds for a TD (John Hoyland KICK) — WYO win probability +21.5 pts (now 82%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
- TD · Q4 7:00: Aiden Calvert run for 37 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — AF win probability +19.7 pts (now 35%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WYO made the numbers' call on 5 of 6AF made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
- Q1 11:53AF 4th & 3 at AF 44, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 58.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call58.5%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt58.5%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 10:14WYO 4th & 1 at AF 20, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 42.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call42.4%71% to convertField goal42.2%−0.275% to makePunt41.6%−0.8average punt
- Q1 7:29AF 4th & 3 at AF 32, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.9% before the snapGo for it54.1%−0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call54.1%average punt
- Q1 6:30WYO 4th & 7 at WYO 23, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.9% before the snapGo for it45.8%−0.335% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call46.2%average punt
- Q2 14:56AF 4th & 5 at WYO 11, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 50.4% before the snapGo for it50.0%−0.237% to convertField goalTheir call50.2%87% to makePunt46.6%−3.6average punt
- Q2 12:29WYO 4th & 8 at WYO 43, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.6% before the snapGo for it47.5%−0.534% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call48.0%average punt
- Q2 3:04WYO 4th & 18 at WYO 36, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.7% before the snapGo for it39.3%−2.313% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call41.6%average punt
- Q2 0:23AF 4th & 7 at WYO 10, up 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.4% before the snapGo for it58.2%−1.331% to convertField goalTheir call59.5%88% to makePunt53.6%−5.9average punt
- Q3 11:54WYO 4th & 1 at AF 1, down 6Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call38.6%59% to convertField goal35.1%−3.494% to makePunt26.1%−12.4average punt
- Q3 9:28AF 4th & 5 at AF 43, down 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.0% before the snapGo for it45.3%−0.941% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call46.2%average punt
- Q3 2:07AF 4th & 7 at AF 28, down 8Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.6% before the snapGo for it20.7%−2.036% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call22.7%average punt
- Q4 10:36WYO 4th & 4 at AF 6, up 8Close callKicked a field goal · 85.3% before the snapGo for it85.0%40% to convertField goalTheir call84.0%−1.091% to makePunt73.2%−11.8average punt
- Q4 1:19AF 4th & 24 at AF 42, down 12Close callWent for it · 3.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call2.9%−0.27% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt3.1%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WYO made the numbers' call on 4 of 4AF made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
- Q1 9:36WYO Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call44.1%97% to makeGo for two44.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 6:47AF Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call56.6%97% to makeGo for two56.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 11:54WYO Touchdown, tied before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call49.5%97% to makeGo for two49.3%−0.245% to convert
- Q3 3:32WYO Touchdown, up 7 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call71.8%97% to makeGo for two71.6%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 7:00AF Touchdown, down 5 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick22.8%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call22.6%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 2:13WYO Touchdown, up 11 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.7%97% to makeGo for two95.4%−0.345% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartAFDrive 1DOWNS8 plays · 21 yds · 3:0755% → 54%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 2TD8 plays · 46 yds · 2:1746% → 49%
Q1 11:53
3RD & 7
OPP 26
+5
46.2%
SVOBODA, Evan pass deep to the left incomplete intended for PELISSIER, Will thrown to the AFA0. PENALTY AFA Offsides on ZDROIK, Payton enforced 5 yards from the AFA26 to the AFA21 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 3PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 2:0752% → 50%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 4PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 0:5950% → 50%
Q1 6:30
4TH & 7
OWN 23
+2
49.7%
Jack Culbreath punt for 62 yds , Brandon Engel returns for 2 yds to the AFA 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 5FG13 plays · 72 yds · 6:3450% → 49%
Q1 6:30
2ND & 15
OPP 49
+33
49.7%
John Busha pass complete to Cade Harris for 33 yds to the WYO 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 6PUNT9 plays · 18 yds · 2:2749% → 52%
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
49.1%
Evan Svoboda pass complete to Justin Stevenson for a loss of 3 yards to the WYO 22Similar
Q2 14:56
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+20
48.4%
Evan Svoboda pass complete to John Michael Gyllenborg for 20 yds to the WYO 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:41
2ND & 5
OWN 46
-3
54.3%
Evan Svoboda pass complete to Tyler King for a loss of 3 yards to the WYO 43Similar
Q2 12:29
4TH & 8
OWN 43
0
52.3%
Jack Culbreath punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Brandon Engel at the AFA 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 7TD10 plays · 81 yds · 5:4247% → 60%
Q2 12:29
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+23
51.0%
John Busha pass complete to Cade Harris for 23 yds to the WYO 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:29
2ND & 4
OPP 9
+5
49.8%
QB Keeper BUSHA, John rush to the left for a loss of 5 yards to the WYO14 (SHAY, Connor). PENALTY Before the snap, WYO Illegal Substitution enforced 5 yards from the WYO9 to the WYO4 and results in a 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 8PUNT7 plays · 22 yds · 3:3845% → 44%
Q2 6:42
3RD & 9
OWN 15
+29
43.9%
Evan Svoboda pass complete to Will Pelissier for 29 yds to the WYO 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:42
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+3
47.3%
Evan Svoboda pass complete to Will Pelissier for 3 yds Will Pelissier fumbled, recovered by WYOSimilar
Q2 6:42
3RD & 5
OWN 49
-13
46.9%
run for a loss of 13 yards to the WYO 36 fumbled, recovered by WYO Evan Svoboda E. Svoboda return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 9FG9 plays · 54 yds · 2:4157% → 65%
Q2 3:04
2ND & 7
50
+24
41.4%
John Busha pass complete to Cade Harris for 24 yds to the WYO 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 10END OF HALF1 play · -1 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
41.3%
[NH] Kneel down by SVOBODA, Evan at WYO24 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 11TD7 plays · 76 yds · 2:5841% → 58%
Q3 14:52
2ND & 6
OWN 28
+32
40.8%
Evan Svoboda pass complete to Chris Durr Jr. for 32 yds to the AFA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+33
43.8%
Evan Svoboda pass complete to John Michael Gyllenborg for 33 yds to the AFA 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
44.7%
Evan Svoboda pass complete to Justin Stevenson for 4 yds to the AFA 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 12PUNT6 plays · 18 yds · 2:2644% → 43%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 13TD12 plays · 94 yds · 5:5657% → 82%
Q3 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+16
57.1%
Evan Svoboda pass complete to Chris Durr Jr. for 16 yds to the WYO 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:28
3RD & 8
OWN 40
+13
57.0%
Evan Svoboda pass complete to John Michael Gyllenborg for 13 yds to the AFA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:28
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+10
60.9%
SVOBODA, Evan pass deep to the right incomplete intended for BROWN, Alex thrown to the AFA28. PENALTY AFA Holding on BELLAMY, Jamari enforced 10 yards from the AFA47 to the AFA37 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 9:28
2ND & 14
OPP 17
+13
61.1%
Evan Svoboda pass complete to Tyler King for 13 yds to the AFA 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 14PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 1:2525% → 20%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 15FG14 plays · 61 yds · 6:3181% → 88%
Q3 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-3
80.9%
Evan Svoboda pass complete to Jamari Ferrell for a loss of 3 yards to the WYO 30Similar
Q3 2:07
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+7
82.5%
Evan Svoboda pass complete to Jaylen Sargent for 7 yds to the AFA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
84.4%
Evan Svoboda pass complete to John Michael Gyllenborg for 4 yds to the AFA 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 16TD8 plays · 75 yds · 3:3612% → 35%
WYODrive 17TD11 plays · 75 yds · 4:4782% → 98%
Q4 7:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+23
81.7%
Kaden Anderson pass complete to Chris Durr Jr. for 23 yds to the AFA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:00
4TH & 3
OPP 39
+15
83.2%
CULBREATH, Jack punt 29 yards to the AFA10 downed by MERRITT, Caleb. PENALTY AFA Personal Foul enforced 15 yards from the AFA39 to the AFA24 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [FAKE PUNT]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 18DOWNS8 plays · 17 yds · 0:543% → 2%
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 3:32
Tyler King run for 3 yds for a TD (John Hoyland KICK)
+21.5
TD · Q4 7:00
Aiden Calvert run for 37 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
-19.7
TD · Q3 11:54
Evan Svoboda run for 1 yd for a TD (John Hoyland KICK)
+14.7