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PUR

Purdue 21 at Oregon State 38

ORST
2024 · Week 4 · Sep 21, 2024 · Reser Stadium
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Win probability · ORST
modelORST aheadPUR aheadconfidence bandkey playORST scorePUR score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 6:53 · Keelan Crimmins punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Trent Walker at the ORST 29
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+31.0+15.50−15.5−31.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 21Home team on offense+1.5Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential+0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.4Pregame prior−2.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:30: Hudson Card pass complete to Max Klare for 32 yds for a TD (Spencer Porath KICK) — PUR win probability +8.4 pts (now 42%) (top driver: PUR has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 0:50: Zachary Card run for 26 yds for a TD (Everett Hayes KICK) — ORST win probability +12.1 pts (now 94%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 12:49: Reggie Love III run for 2 yds for a TD (Spencer Porath KICK) — PUR win probability +14.5 pts (now 22%) (top driver: PUR has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 9:57: Jam Griffin run for 14 yds for a TD (Everett Hayes KICK) — ORST win probability +8.9 pts (now 96%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:59: Devin Mockobee run for 3 yds for a TD (Spencer Porath KICK) — PUR win probability +10.7 pts (now 16%) (top driver: PUR has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ORST made the numbers' call on 6 of 7PUR made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 13:04ORST 4th & 1 at ORST 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    56.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    56.5%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:51ORST 4th & 20 at ORST 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.9%−0.6
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:53PUR 4th & 7 at PUR 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.6%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.8%
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:11PUR 4th & 2 at ORST 13, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.3%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    28.4%−1.0
    85% to make
    Punt
    22.5%−6.8
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:40ORST 4th & 12 at ORST 10, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.6%−1.7
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:39ORST 4th & 15 at PUR 34, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 66.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.3%−1.0
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.3%
    47% to make
    Punt
    65.4%−0.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:42PUR 4th & 4 at PUR 40, down 7
    Close callPunted · 32.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.5%−0.8
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:03ORST 4th & 1 at PUR 12, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 69.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    70.0%−2.3
    86% to make
    Punt
    63.0%−9.3
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:16PUR 4th & 5 at PUR 30, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.2%−0.5
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.7%
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:29ORST 4th & 3 at PUR 3, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 80.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    81.1%
    44% to convert
    Field goal
    79.5%−1.5
    93% to make
    Punt
    71.4%−9.7
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:00PUR 4th & 2 at PUR 11, down 10
    Close callPunted · 17.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.9%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.7%−0.2
    average punt
  12. Q4 3:15ORST 4th & 2 at PUR 23, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 93.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    93.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    92.9%−0.3
    70% to make
    Punt
    90.7%−2.5
    average punt
  13. Q4 1:00PUR 4th & 6 at PUR 29, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.5%
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.4%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ORST made the numbers' call on 5 of 5PUR made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 7:37ORST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:14ORST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:30PUR Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 0:50ORST Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 12:49PUR Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 9:57ORST Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.9%−0.3
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 6:59PUR Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.8%−0.3
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 1:53ORST Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.7%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ORSTDrive 1DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:5247% → 47%
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
46.8%
Jam Griffin run for 4 yds to the ORST 23Similar
Q1 14:17
2ND & 6
OWN 23
+4
46.9%
Jam Griffin run for 4 yds to the ORST 27Similar
Q1 13:40
3RD & 2
OWN 27
+1
47.0%
Jam Griffin run for 1 yd to the ORST 28Similar
Q1 13:04
4TH & 1
OWN 28
0
47.1%
Gevani McCoy pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 2FUMBLE
4 plays · 17 yds · 1:1653% → 53%
Q1 12:59
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+10
46.9%
Devin Mockobee run for 10 yds to the ORST 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:33
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+7
46.9%
Devin Mockobee run for 7 yds to the ORST 11Similar
Q1 12:12
2ND & 3
OPP 11
+2
47.0%
Devin Mockobee run for 2 yds to the ORST 9Similar
Q1 11:43
3RD & 1
OPP 9
-2
47.1%
Devin Mockobee run for a loss of 2 yards to the ORST 11 Devin Mockobee fumbled, recovered by ORST Thomas Collins T. Collins return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 3:4548% → 48%
Q1 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+10
47.6%
Gevani McCoy run for 10 yds to the ORST 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
47.8%
Gevani McCoy run for 4 yds to the ORST 25Similar
Q1 10:10
2ND & 6
OWN 25
+9
47.9%
Jam Griffin run for 9 yds to the ORST 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
48.2%
Gevani McCoy pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:22
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+2
48.1%
Jam Griffin run for 2 yds to the ORST 36Similar
Q1 8:43
3RD & 8
OWN 36
-7
47.9%
Gevani McCoy sacked by Kydran Jenkins for a loss of 7 yards to the ORST 29Similar
Q1 8:08
4TH & 15
OWN 29
-5
47.6%
Oregon State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the ORST 24Similar
Q1 7:51
4TH & 20
OWN 24
0
47.7%
Josh Green punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Dillon Thieneman at the PUR 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 4INT TD
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0049% → 49%
Q1 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-20
51.1%
Hudson Card pass intercepted Zakaih Saez return for 20 yds for a TD (Everett Hayes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:5049% → 48%
Q1 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
51.2%
Reggie Love III run for 3 yds to the PUR 28Similar
Q1 7:07
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
51.4%
Hudson Card pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:03
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
51.8%
Hudson Card pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:53
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
52.1%
Keelan Crimmins punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Trent Walker at the ORST 29Similar
Q1 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-10
51.9%
(06:47) MCCOY, Gevani scrambles up the middle for a gain of 1 yard to the OSU30 (JENKINS, Kydran), clock 06:38. PENALTY OSU Holding on GONZALEZ, Flavio enforced 10 yards from the OSU29 to the OSU19. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 6TD
15 plays · 71 yds · 7:0052% → 63%
Q1 6:14
1ST & 20
OWN 19
+3
52.1%
Gevani McCoy run for 3 yds to the ORST 22Similar
Q1 5:51
2ND & 17
OWN 22
+15
52.3%
(05:51) MCCOY, Gevani pass deep up the middle incomplete intended for NOGA, Jeremiah thrown to the PUR47, clock 05:46. PENALTY PUR Pass Interference on JEFFERSON II, Joseph enforced 15 yards to the OSU37 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
52.8%
Anthony Hankerson run for 7 yds to the ORST 44Similar
Q1 5:09
2ND & 3
OWN 44
+5
53.7%
Anthony Hankerson run for 5 yds to the ORST 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
54.2%
Anthony Hankerson run for 3 yds to the PUR 48Similar
Q1 3:56
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+3
54.6%
Gevani McCoy pass complete to Anthony Hankerson for 3 yds to the PUR 45Similar
Q1 3:09
3RD & 4
OPP 45
+19
54.8%
Anthony Hankerson run for 19 yds to the PUR 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:25
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-1
55.5%
Anthony Hankerson run for a loss of 1 yard to the PUR 27Similar
Q1 1:50
2ND & 11
OPP 27
-5
55.8%
Oregon State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the PUR 32Similar
Q1 1:35
2ND & 16
OPP 32
+6
55.4%
Gevani McCoy run for 6 yds to the PUR 26Similar
Q1 0:50
3RD & 10
OPP 26
+18
55.9%
Gevani McCoy pass complete to Jeremiah Noga for 18 yds to the PUR 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
56.8%
Anthony Hankerson run for 2 yds to the PUR 6Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
56.8%
Anthony Hankerson run for 5 yds to the PUR 1Similar
Q2 14:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
62.9%
Anthony Hankerson run for 1 yd for a TD (Everett Hayes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 7DOWNS
11 plays · 63 yds · 5:0240% → 35%
Q2 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+28
60.4%
Devin Mockobee run for 28 yds to the ORST 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:43
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
59.8%
Hudson Card pass complete to Jayden Dixon-Veal for no gain to the ORST 47Similar
Q2 13:09
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+13
60.7%
Devin Mockobee run for 13 yds to the ORST 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:43
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
59.8%
Devin Mockobee run for 4 yds to the ORST 30Similar
Q2 12:13
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+5
59.5%
Hudson Card run for 5 yds to the ORST 25Similar
Q2 11:32
3RD & 1
OPP 25
+4
60.5%
Reggie Love III run for 4 yds to the ORST 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:57
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-1
60.3%
Reggie Love III run for a loss of 1 yard to the ORST 22Similar
Q2 10:22
2ND & 11
OPP 22
+10
61.2%
Reggie Love III run for 10 yds to the ORST 12Similar
Q2 9:43
3RD & 1
OPP 12
-1
62.3%
Devin Mockobee run for a loss of 1 yard to the ORST 13Similar
Q2 9:11
4TH & 2
OPP 13
+1
65.5%
Reggie Love III run for 1 yd to the ORST 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:3868% → 67%
Q2 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+1
68.0%
Jam Griffin run for 1 yd to the ORST 13Similar
Q2 8:23
2ND & 9
OWN 13
-3
68.6%
Jam Griffin run for a loss of 3 yards to the ORST 10Similar
Q2 7:46
3RD & 12
OWN 10
0
67.6%
Gevani McCoy pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:40
4TH & 12
OWN 10
+20
67.0%
Josh Green punt for 57 yds , Dillon Thieneman returns for 20 yds to the ORST 47Similar
Q2 7:27
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+15
67.3%
(07:27) CARD, Hudson pass deep to the left intercepted by THOMAS, Skyler at the OSU5 intended for SMITH, Leland. Thomas return for 0 yards to the OSU5, End of Play, clock 07:18. PENALTY OSU Pass Interference on THOMAS, Skyler enforced 15 yards to the OSU32 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 9TD
2 plays · 47 yds · 0:4834% → 42%
Q2 7:18
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
66.2%
Reggie Love III run for no gain to the ORST 32Similar
Q2 6:30
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+32
57.8%
Hudson Card pass complete to Max Klare for 32 yds for a TD (Spencer Porath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 10MISSED FG
7 plays · 31 yds · 2:4262% → 62%
Q2 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
61.9%
Jam Griffin run for 5 yds to the ORST 40Similar
Q2 5:44
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+19
63.8%
Gevani McCoy run for 19 yds to the PUR 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:12
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+12
64.5%
Jam Griffin run for 12 yds to the PUR 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:52
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
65.0%
Jam Griffin run for 2 yds to the PUR 27Similar
Q2 4:25
2ND & 8
OPP 27
0
65.3%
Gevani McCoy pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:21
3RD & 8
OPP 27
-7
64.4%
Gevani McCoy sacked by Kydran Jenkins for a loss of 7 yards to the PUR 34Similar
Q2 3:39
4TH & 15
OPP 34
+52
61.7%
Everett Hayes 52 Yard Field Goal MissedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:5038% → 36%
Q2 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
62.4%
Hudson Card pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:28
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+6
62.9%
Devin Mockobee run for 6 yds to the PUR 40Similar
Q2 2:47
3RD & 4
OWN 40
0
62.1%
Hudson Card pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:42
4TH & 4
OWN 40
0
63.8%
Keelan Crimmins punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Trent Walker at the ORST 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 12FG
15 plays · 81 yds · 2:3263% → 70%
Q2 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+5
63.3%
Anthony Hankerson run for 5 yds to the ORST 12Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 5
OWN 12
+2
61.8%
Anthony Hankerson run for 2 yds to the ORST 14Similar
Q2 1:21
3RD & 3
OWN 14
+3
61.8%
Anthony Hankerson run for 3 yds to the ORST 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
64.1%
Gevani McCoy pass complete to Anthony Hankerson for 2 yds to the ORST 19Similar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 8
OWN 19
+15
64.3%
Gevani McCoy pass complete to Darrius Clemons for 15 yds to the ORST 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+34
64.7%
Gevani McCoy pass complete to Trent Walker for 34 yds to the PUR 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+11
69.6%
Gevani McCoy pass complete to Darrius Clemons for 11 yds to the PUR 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
69.4%
Gevani McCoy pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:22
2ND & 10
OPP 21
0
69.4%
Gevani McCoy pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:14
3RD & 10
OPP 21
+9
67.2%
Gevani McCoy pass complete to Darrius Clemons for 9 yds to the PUR 12Similar
Q2 0:03
4TH & 1
OPP 12
+29
70.3%
Everett Hayes 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · 21 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q2 0:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
70.7%
Reggie Love III run for 21 yds to the PUR 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:4332% → 28%
Q3 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
68.1%
run for a loss of 4 yards to the PUR 21 fumbled, recovered by PUR Reggie Love III R. Love III return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q3 14:23
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+4
68.9%
Devin Mockobee run for 4 yds to the PUR 25 Purdue Penalty, Offensive Holding (Corey Stewart) declinedSimilar
Q3 13:59
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+5
69.9%
Hudson Card run for 5 yds to the PUR 30Similar
Q3 13:16
4TH & 5
OWN 30
-2
72.3%
Keelan Crimmins punt for 45 yds , Trent Walker returns for a loss of 2 yards to the ORST 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 15DOWNS
14 plays · 74 yds · 8:3472% → 78%
Q3 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+19
71.7%
Zachary Card run for 19 yds to the ORST 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
73.5%
Jam Griffin run for 9 yds to the PUR 49Similar
Q3 11:45
2ND & 1
OPP 49
+3
74.0%
Jam Griffin run for 3 yds to the PUR 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:19
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
74.7%
Jam Griffin run for 4 yds to the PUR 42Similar
Q3 10:42
2ND & 6
OPP 42
0
75.1%
Gevani McCoy pass complete to Trent Walker for no gain to the PUR 42Similar
Q3 9:57
3RD & 6
OPP 42
+10
74.9%
Jam Griffin run for 10 yds to the PUR 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:14
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+10
76.6%
Jam Griffin run for 10 yds to the PUR 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:31
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
77.0%
Anthony Hankerson run for no gain to the PUR 22Similar
Q3 7:54
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+9
77.3%
Gevani McCoy pass complete to Jeremiah Noga for 9 yds to the PUR 13Similar
Q3 7:21
3RD & 1
OPP 13
+3
77.2%
Jam Griffin run for 3 yds to the PUR 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-6
78.8%
Jam Griffin run for a loss of 6 yards to the PUR 16Similar
Q3 5:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 16
+10
79.0%
Jam Griffin run for 10 yds to the PUR 6Similar
Q3 5:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
78.8%
Gevani McCoy pass complete to Trent Walker for 3 yds to the PUR 3Similar
Q3 4:29
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
0
78.3%
Gevani McCoy pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:2322% → 19%
Q3 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 3
0
78.1%
Hudson Card pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:16
2ND & 10
OWN 3
+4
78.5%
Reggie Love III run for 4 yds to the PUR 7Similar
Q3 3:44
3RD & 6
OWN 7
+4
79.8%
Hudson Card pass complete to De'Nylon Morrissette for 4 yds to the PUR 11Similar
Q3 3:00
4TH & 2
OWN 11
0
80.6%
Keelan Crimmins punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Trent Walker at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 17TD
4 plays · 50 yds · 2:0581% → 94%
Q3 2:55
1ST & 10
50
-1
81.1%
Anthony Hankerson run for a loss of 1 yard to the ORST 49Similar
Q3 2:16
2ND & 11
OWN 49
+7
81.1%
Anthony Hankerson run for 7 yds to the PUR 44Similar
Q3 1:41
3RD & 4
OPP 44
+18
81.5%
Gevani McCoy run for 18 yds to the PUR 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
93.6%
Zachary Card run for 26 yds for a TD (Everett Hayes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 18TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 3:008% → 22%
Q3 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
92.5%
Devin Mockobee run for 4 yds to the PUR 29Similar
Q3 0:28
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
92.3%
Hudson Card pass complete to Leland Smith for 5 yds to the PUR 34Similar
Q4 14:59
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
92.5%
Devin Mockobee run for 2 yds to the PUR 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+26
92.9%
Devin Mockobee run for 26 yds to the ORST 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:59
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+14
93.3%
Hudson Card pass complete to Max Klare for 14 yds to the ORST 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:27
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+22
92.6%
Reggie Love III run for 22 yds to the ORST 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
78.1%
Reggie Love III run for 2 yds for a TD (Spencer Porath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 19TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:5284% → 96%
Q4 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
84.2%
Jam Griffin run for 3 yds to the ORST 28Similar
Q4 12:08
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+18
84.6%
Gevani McCoy run for 18 yds to the ORST 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
86.0%
Jam Griffin run for 7 yds to the PUR 47Similar
Q4 10:51
2ND & 3
OPP 47
+33
86.6%
Jam Griffin run for 33 yds to the PUR 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:11
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
87.4%
Gevani McCoy pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:57
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+14
96.3%
Jam Griffin run for 14 yds for a TD (Everett Hayes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 20TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:574% → 16%
Q4 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
95.6%
(09:56) LOVE III, Reggie rush to the right for a gain of 3 yards to the PUR28 (KANE, Jack;COLLINS, Thomas), clock 09:50. PENALTY PUR Holding on MBOW, Marcus enforced 10 yards from the PUR25 to the PUR15 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 9:35
1ST & 20
OWN 15
-3
95.8%
Hudson Card pass complete to Reggie Love III for a loss of 3 yards to the PUR 12Similar
Q4 9:02
2ND & 23
OWN 12
+23
96.0%
Hudson Card run for 23 yds to the PUR 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
95.8%
Hudson Card pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:14
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+63
95.9%
Devin Mockobee run for 63 yds to the ORST 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
95.2%
Devin Mockobee run for a loss of 1 yard to the ORST 3Similar
Q4 6:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
84.5%
Devin Mockobee run for 3 yds for a TD (Spencer Porath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 21TD
9 plays · 42 yds · 4:5891% → 99%
Q4 6:51
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
91.3%
Anthony Hankerson run for 3 yds to the PUR 39Similar
Q4 6:11
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+8
91.8%
Trent Walker run for 8 yds to the PUR 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:33
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
92.2%
Anthony Hankerson run for 4 yds to the PUR 27Similar
Q4 4:48
2ND & 6
OPP 27
+2
92.7%
Gevani McCoy run for 2 yds to the PUR 25Similar
Q4 3:59
3RD & 4
OPP 25
+2
92.7%
Anthony Hankerson run for 2 yds to the PUR 23Similar
Q4 3:15
4TH & 2
OPP 23
+5
93.2%
Anthony Hankerson run for 5 yds to the PUR 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:34
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+6
94.7%
Anthony Hankerson run for 6 yds to the PUR 12Similar
Q4 1:53
2ND & 4
OPP 12
+12
98.7%
Anthony Hankerson run for 12 yds for a TD (Everett Hayes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 22DOWNS
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:522% → 2%
Q4 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
97.8%
Hudson Card pass complete to Andrew Sowinski for 4 yds to the PUR 29Similar
Q4 1:19
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
97.7%
Hudson Card pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:14
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
97.8%
Hudson Card pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:00
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
98.0%
Hudson Card pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 23END OF GAME
2 plays · -4 yds · 0:3299% → 99%
Q4 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-2
98.8%
(00:53) Kneel down by MCCOY, Gevani at PUR31 (team loss of 2), clock 00:50.Similar
Q4 0:21
2ND & 12
OPP 31
-2
98.9%
(00:21) Kneel down by MCCOY, Gevani at PUR33 (team loss of 2), clock 00:16.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 12:49
Reggie Love III run for 2 yds for a TD (Spencer Porath KICK)
-14.5
TD · Q3 0:50
Zachary Card run for 26 yds for a TD (Everett Hayes KICK)
+12.1
TD · Q4 6:59
Devin Mockobee run for 3 yds for a TD (Spencer Porath KICK)
-10.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com