2024 · Week 4 · Sep 21, 2024 · Lincoln Financial Field
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Win probability · TEM
modelTEM aheadUSU aheadconfidence bandkey playTEM scoreUSU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 0:41 · Dante Atton punt for 33 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 1:10: Evan Simon pass complete to Antwain Littleton for 17 yds for a TD (Maddux Trujillo KICK) — TEM win probability +13.7 pts (now 50%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:17: Rahsul Faison run for 20 yds for a TD (Elliott Nimrod KICK) — USU win probability +12.6 pts (now 75%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 4:10: Evan Simon pass complete to Dante Wright for 91 yds for a TD (Maddux Trujillo KICK) — TEM win probability +18.1 pts (now 55%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
- TD · Q4 11:57: Evan Simon pass complete to Daniel Evert for 16 yds for a TD (Maddux Trujillo KICK) — TEM win probability +13.8 pts (now 84%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
- TD · Q4 3:55: Jack Hestera 28 Yd pass from Spencer Petras (Spencer Petras Pass to Kyrese White for Two-Point Conversion) — USU win probability +10.5 pts (now 13%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
TEM made the numbers' call on 5 of 6USU made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
- Q1 11:23USU 4th & 17 at TEM 37, tiedClose callPunted · 63.7% before the snapGo for it63.7%−0.115% to convertField goal63.8%40% to makePuntTheir call63.8%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 10:01TEM 4th & 8 at TEM 3, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 36.3% before the snapGo for it36.2%−0.229% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call36.4%average punt
- Q1 6:55USU 4th & 1 at TEM 9, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 62.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call62.7%71% to convertField goal62.3%−0.489% to makePunt61.0%−1.7average punt
- Q1 5:28USU 4th & 1 at TEM 1, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 62.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call62.0%59% to convertField goal61.5%−0.694% to makePunt59.9%−2.1average punt
- Q1 3:11TEM 4th & 5 at TEM 22, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 38.4% before the snapGo for it38.3%−0.340% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call38.6%average punt
- Q1 2:05USU 4th & 10 at TEM 45, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 60.7% before the snapGo for it60.6%−0.230% to convertField goal60.3%−0.425% to makePuntTheir call60.8%average punt
- Q1 0:41TEM 4th & 9 at TEM 4, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 39.3% before the snapGo for it38.6%−0.727% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call39.4%average punt
- Q2 13:30TEM 4th & 4 at TEM 14, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.7% before the snapGo for it33.7%−0.347% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call34.0%average punt
- Q2 6:27USU 4th & 3 at USU 32, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.9% before the snapGo for it67.0%−0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call67.1%average punt
- Q3 13:29TEM 4th & 6 at TEM 20, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.2% before the snapGo for it36.5%−0.438% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call37.0%average punt
- Q3 9:14USU 4th & 11 at TEM 12, up 4Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 61.9% before the snapGo for it59.5%−2.022% to convertField goalTheir call61.5%86% to makePunt51.2%−10.3average punt
- Q3 7:41TEM 4th & 3 at TEM 27, down 4Close callPunted · 36.3% before the snapGo for it37.8%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call37.4%−0.5average punt
- Q3 5:09USU 4th & 9 at TEM 49, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.4% before the snapGo for it62.4%−1.332% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call63.7%average punt
- Q3 1:58USU 4th & 12 at USU 39, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.7% before the snapGo for it36.8%−2.923% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call39.7%average punt
- Q4 10:12USU 4th & 14 at USU 21, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.3% before the snapGo for it11.3%−2.417% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call13.7%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TEM made the numbers' call on 4 of 6USU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
- Q2 14:30USU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call64.3%97% to makeGo for two64.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 11:19USU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call70.4%97% to makeGo for two70.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 7:50TEM Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call31.9%97% to makeGo for two31.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:10TEM Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call42.5%97% to makeGo for two42.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:17USU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call66.6%97% to makeGo for two66.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 4:10TEM Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call56.2%97% to makeGo for two56.0%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 11:57TEM Touchdown, up 9 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call84.9%−<0.197% to makeGo for two85.0%45% to convert
- Q4 6:02TEM Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.5%97% to makeGo for two96.0%−0.445% to convert
- Q4 3:55USU Touchdown, down 11 before the tryClose callWent for two · convertedKick7.8%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call7.0%−0.745% to convert
- Q4 3:22TEM Touchdown, up 15 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call97.0%−0.397% to makeGo for two97.3%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUSUDrive 1PUNT13 plays · 44 yds · 3:0566% → 65%
Q1 14:28
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
34.0%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Kyrese White for 1 yd to the USU 20Similar
Q1 14:13
3RD & 9
OWN 20
+16
34.1%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Jalen Royals for 16 yds to the USU 36 for a 1ST down Temple Penalty, Defensive Offside (Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:13
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-10
34.6%
(12:15) No Huddle-Shotgun Faison,Rahsul rush left for 18 yards gain to the TEMPLE12 (Morton,Javier), out of bounds PENALTY USU Holding (Motes,Cole) 10 yards from TEMPLE30 to TEMPLE40. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 2PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 1:0935% → 35%
Q1 10:01
4TH & 8
OWN 3
0
35.4%
Dante Atton punt for 46 yds , Robert Freeman IV returns for no gain to the TEM 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 3DOWNS14 plays · 48 yds · 3:2365% → 63%
Q1 8:51
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+14
35.5%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Jalen Royals for 14 yds to the TEM 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:47
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
35.4%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Jalen Royals for no gain to the TEM 35Similar
Q1 8:14
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+13
35.6%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Jalen Royals for 13 yds to the TEM 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:05
2ND & 6
OPP 18
0
35.6%
Rahsul Faison run for 15 yds to the TEM 3 for a 1ST down Utah State Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Teague Andersen) to the TEM 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:53
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
36.2%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Broc Lane for 5 yds to the TEM 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 4PUNT7 plays · 21 yds · 2:1137% → 37%
USUDrive 5PUNT6 plays · 16 yds · 0:5563% → 62%
Q1 2:31
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+13
36.9%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Broc Lane for 13 yds to the TEM 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 6PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 1:1439% → 38%
Q1 0:49
4TH & 6
OWN 7
-3
38.0%
PENALTY TEMPLE Delay Of Game (Atton,Dante) 3 yards from TEMPLE07 to TEMPLE04. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 7TD6 plays · 37 yds · 1:0763% → 69%
Q2 14:34
3RD & 6
OPP 12
+8
37.2%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Otto Tia for 8 yds to the TEM 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 8PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 0:5433% → 32%
USUDrive 9TD5 plays · 48 yds · 1:5368% → 75%
Q2 13:12
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+9
31.6%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Jalen Royals for 9 yds to the TEM 39Similar
Q2 12:44
2ND & 1
OPP 39
+5
31.4%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Jalen Royals for 5 yds to the TEM 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:19
3RD & 2
OPP 26
+26
25.4%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Jalen Royals for 26 yds for a TD (Elliott Nimrod KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 10TD9 plays · 78 yds · 3:1426% → 36%
USUDrive 11PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 1:1569% → 68%
Q2 6:27
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
31.6%
Stephen Kotsanlee punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Dante Wright at the TEM 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 12TD11 plays · 65 yds · 5:0632% → 50%
Q2 5:57
2ND & 2
OWN 43
-5
34.0%
(06:00) Shotgun Simon,Evan pass complete short right to Littleton II,Antwain caught at TEMPLE45, for 4 yards to the TEMPLE47 (Maye,Jon Ross; Washington,Clyde), out of bounds PENALTY TEMPLE Illegal Formation 5 yards from TEMPLE43 to TEMPLE38. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:29
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+12
33.8%
Evan Simon pass complete to Joquez Smith for 12 yds to the USU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:08
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+10
34.3%
Evan Simon pass complete to James Della Pesca for 10 yds to the USU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:41
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+6
35.8%
Evan Simon pass complete to Kajiya Hollawayne for 6 yds to the USU 23Similar
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
49.6%
Evan Simon pass complete to Antwain Littleton for 17 yds for a TD (Maddux Trujillo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 13TD7 plays · 75 yds · 0:4958% → 75%
Q2 0:48
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+13
42.2%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Kyrese White for 13 yds to the USU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:30
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+8
38.7%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Jalen Royals for 8 yds to the TEM 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
40.3%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Kyrese White for 8 yds to the USU 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 14FG4 plays · 11 yds · 0:0532% → 40%
TEMDrive 15PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:1839% → 37%
Q3 13:47
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-5
38.5%
Evan Simon sacked by Miguel Jackson for a loss of 5 yards to the TEM 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 16MISSED FG10 plays · 45 yds · 3:5265% → 62%
Q3 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+19
35.2%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Kyrese White for 19 yds to the TEM 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:14
2ND & 9
OPP 37
+16
35.1%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Jalen Royals for 16 yds to the TEM 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:46
3RD & 5
OPP 6
-6
34.8%
Spencer Petras sacked by Tyquan King for a loss of 6 yards to the TEM 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 17PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 1:2439% → 36%
USUDrive 18PUNT8 plays · 14 yds · 2:1865% → 63%
Q3 6:55
2ND & 14
OWN 33
+5
36.7%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Will Monney for 5 yds to the USU 38Similar
Q3 6:28
3RD & 9
OWN 38
+12
36.0%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Kyrese White for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:20
4TH & 4
OPP 44
-5
35.8%
PENALTY USU False Start (Flores,Noah) 5 yards from TEMPLE44 to TEMPLE49. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 19TD6 plays · 94 yds · 0:5438% → 58%
Q3 4:10
3RD & 7
OWN 9
+91
54.6%
Evan Simon pass complete to Dante Wright for 91 yds for a TD (Maddux Trujillo KICK)Similar
Q3 4:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
62.4%
PENALTY TEMPLE Delay Of Game 5 yards from USU03 to USU08. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
57.7%
PENALTY USU Roughing The Passer (Spires,Blaine) 15 yards from TEMPLE35 to TEMPLE50. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 20PUNT7 plays · 9 yds · 2:0644% → 39%
Q3 2:33
2ND & 8
OWN 43
-6
55.5%
Spencer Petras sacked by Tra Thomas for a loss of 6 yards to the USU 49 Spencer Petras fumbled, recovered by USU Aloali'i Maui , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 2:28
3RD & 2
OWN 49
-10
54.3%
(02:28) No Huddle-Shotgun Faison,Rahsul rush left for 6 yards gain to the TEMPLE45 (Keaton,Andreas), out of bounds PENALTY USU Holding (Motes,Cole) 10 yards from USU49 to USU39. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:58
4TH & 12
OWN 39
0
61.0%
Stephen Kotsanlee punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Dante Wright at the TEM 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 21TD9 plays · 82 yds · 4:5159% → 84%
Q4 14:45
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+13
62.6%
Evan Simon pass complete to Ashton Allen for 13 yds to the USU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:11
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-1
68.3%
Evan Simon pass complete to Antonio Jones for a loss of 1 yard to the USU 44Similar
Q4 13:26
2ND & 11
OPP 44
+22
68.0%
Evan Simon pass complete to Dante Wright for 22 yds to the USU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:57
3RD & 4
OPP 16
+16
84.4%
Evan Simon pass complete to Daniel Evert for 16 yds for a TD (Maddux Trujillo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 22PUNT5 plays · -4 yds · 1:2817% → 12%
Q4 10:43
3RD & 16
OWN 19
+2
84.7%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Kyrese White for 2 yds to the USU 21Similar
Q4 10:12
4TH & 14
OWN 21
+21
87.6%
Stephen Kotsanlee punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the USU 36 , Dante Wright returns for 21 yds to the USU 42 Utah State Penalty, Illegal Formation (Robert Freeman IV) to the USU 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 23TD7 plays · 36 yds · 3:5986% → 97%
USUDrive 24TD6 plays · 75 yds · 1:513% → 13%
Q4 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
96.8%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Jalen Royals for 5 yds to the USU 30Similar
Q4 5:15
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+16
97.3%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Jack Hestera for 16 yds to the USU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+15
97.3%
(05:14) No Huddle-Shotgun Petras,Spencer pass incomplete deep left to Royals,Jalen thrown to TEMPLE15 PENALTY TEMPLE Pass Interference (Johnson,Jamel) 15 yards from USU46 to TEMPLE39, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:58
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+11
97.3%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Kyrese White for 11 yds to the TEM 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
86.8%
Jack Hestera 28 Yd pass from Spencer Petras (Spencer Petras Pass to Kyrese White for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 25TD6 plays · 26 yds · 0:2692% → 98%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 26INT6 plays · 40 yds · 0:583% → 5%
TEMDrive 27END OF 4TH QUARTER6 plays · 10 yds · 1:5998% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 4:10
Evan Simon pass complete to Dante Wright for 91 yds for a TD (Maddux Trujillo KICK)
+18.1
TD · Q4 11:57
Evan Simon pass complete to Daniel Evert for 16 yds for a TD (Maddux Trujillo KICK)
+13.8
TD · Q2 1:10
Evan Simon pass complete to Antwain Littleton for 17 yds for a TD (Maddux Trujillo KICK)
+13.7