2024 · Week 4 · Sep 21, 2024 · Mackay Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Win probability · NEV
modelNEV aheadEWU aheadconfidence bandkey playNEV scoreEWU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 9:19 · Soren McKee 19 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 6:46: Patrick Garwo III run for 9 yds for a TD (Matthew Killam KICK) — NEV win probability +1.5 pts (now 83%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
- TD · Q1 1:48: Brendon Lewis pass complete to Marcus Bellon for 4 yds for a TD (Matthew Killam KICK) — NEV win probability +2.8 pts (now 86%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
- FG · Q2 9:19: Soren McKee 19 yd FG GOOD — EWU win probability +1.1 pts (now 18%) (top driver: EWU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:48: Patrick Garwo III run for 7 yds for a TD (Matthew Killam KICK) — NEV win probability +4.1 pts (now 91%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
- TD · Q3 9:43: Patrick Garwo III run for 1 yd for a TD (Matthew Killam KICK) — NEV win probability +4.0 pts (now 98%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
NEV made the numbers' call on 3 of 3EWU made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
- Q1 11:44EWU 4th & 15 at EWU 45, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 18.9% before the snapGo for it18.8%−0.117% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call19.0%average punt
- Q2 9:19EWU 4th & 1 at NEV 1, down 14Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsKicked a field goal · 15.6% before the snapGo for it15.2%59% to convertField goalTheir call13.7%−1.694% to makePunt9.7%−5.5average punt
- Q2 7:01NEV 4th & 14 at NEV 43, up 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.0% before the snapGo for it82.4%−1.118% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call83.4%average punt
- Q2 2:15EWU 4th & 4 at NEV 42, down 11Close callPunted · 15.8% before the snapGo for it15.8%48% to convertField goal15.1%−0.730% to makePuntTheir call15.1%−0.7average punt
- Q2 0:25EWU 4th & 9 at EWU 26, down 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.4% before the snapGo for it8.0%−1.330% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call9.3%average punt
- Q3 6:19EWU 4th & 7 at NEV 35, down 25Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call2.0%37% to convertField goal1.8%−0.145% to makePunt1.6%−0.3average punt
- Q3 2:14NEV 4th & 1 at EWU 33, up 25Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.1%71% to convertField goal98.6%−0.549% to makePunt98.4%−0.7average punt
- Q4 1:46NEV 4th & 3 at EWU 3, up 26Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.8%44% to convertField goal99.8%−0.193% to makePunt99.4%−0.5average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NEV made the numbers' call on 7 of 7EWU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 6:46NEV Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call81.2%97% to makeGo for two81.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 1:48NEV Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call84.1%97% to makeGo for two84.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:48NEV Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call90.8%97% to makeGo for two90.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 9:43NEV Touchdown, up 24 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.0%97% to makeGo for two97.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 0:43NEV Touchdown, up 31 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 12:33EWU Touchdown, down 26 before the tryAgrees with the numbersWent for two · failedKick0.6%−<0.197% to makeGo for twoTheir call0.6%45% to convert
- Q4 9:46NEV Touchdown, up 32 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 8:24EWU Touchdown, down 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.3%97% to makeGo for two0.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 1:46NEV Touchdown, up 32 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartEWUDrive 1PUNT9 plays · 20 yds · 3:1117% → 18%
Q1 14:27
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+8
83.0%
Kekoa Visperas pass complete to Michael Wortham for 8 yds to the EWU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:21
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+14
82.6%
Jared Taylor pass complete to Efton Chism III for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:32
3RD & 10
50
-5
82.3%
Michael Wortham sacked by Henry Ikahihifo for a loss of 5 yards to the EWU 45Similar
Q1 11:44
4TH & 15
OWN 45
+18
82.3%
Landon Ogles punt for 46 yds , Marcus Bellon returns for 18 yds to the NEV 27Similar
Q1 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+15
82.2%
(11:42) LEWIS, Brendon pass deep up the middle incomplete intended for BRAHAM, Cortez thrown to the EWASH26, clock 11:37. PENALTY EWASH Pass Interference on SCHENCK, Cage enforced 15 yards to the NEVADA42 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 2TD9 plays · 73 yds · 4:5182% → 83%
EWUDrive 3INT3 plays · 3 yds · 0:3718% → 17%
NEVDrive 4TD8 plays · 58 yds · 4:0783% → 86%
Q1 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-15
83.0%
Nevada Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the NEV 27Similar
Q1 4:02
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+31
83.1%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Marcus Bellon for 31 yds to the EWU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
85.9%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Marcus Bellon for 4 yds for a TD (Matthew Killam KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EWUDrive 5FG17 plays · 74 yds · 7:2915% → 18%
Q1 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
84.6%
Kekoa Visperas pass complete to Efton Chism III for 3 yds to the EWU 43Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+15
84.5%
ALTAHIR, Tuna rush up the middle for a gain of 1 yard to the NEVADA45 (WITTE, Thomas;MATEIALONA, Tongiaki). PENALTY NEVADA Personal Foul on MALOTUMAU, Mackavelli enforced 15 yards from the NEVADA46 to the NEVADA31 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 27
+12
84.3%
Kekoa Visperas pass complete to Noah Cronquist for 12 yds to the NEV 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 9
+7
84.3%
Kekoa Visperas pass complete to Efton Chism III for 7 yds to the NEV 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
83.1%
Kekoa Visperas pass complete to Miles Williams for 2 yds to the NEV 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 6PUNT6 plays · 18 yds · 2:1784% → 83%
EWUDrive 7PUNT9 plays · 40 yds · 4:4117% → 16%
Q2 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
83.4%
Kekoa Visperas pass complete to Efton Chism III for 3 yds to the EWU 21Similar
Q2 6:30
2ND & 7
OWN 21
+7
83.6%
Kekoa Visperas pass complete to Noah Cronquist for 7 yds to the EWU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:15
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+4
83.1%
Jared Taylor pass complete to Michael Wortham for 4 yds to the NEV 41Similar
Q2 2:47
3RD & 3
OPP 41
-1
83.4%
Jared Taylor pass complete to Efton Chism III for a loss of 1 yard to the NEV 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 8TD9 plays · 75 yds · 1:2385% → 91%
Q2 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
84.8%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Savion Red for no gain to the NEV 25Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+14
85.2%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Jaden Smith for 14 yds to the NEV 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:26
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+26
86.5%
Brendon Lewis run for 11 yds to the EWU 36 for a 1ST down Eastern Washington Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Zion Jones) to the EWU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:56
2ND & 4
OPP 15
+8
86.6%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Cortez Braham Jr. for 8 yds to the EWU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EWUDrive 9PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 0:2210% → 10%
NEVDrive 10INT3 plays · -15 yds · 0:1091% → 91%
Q2 0:07
2ND & 10
OPP 36
-15
90.8%
(00:07) LEWIS, Brendon pass to the left incomplete intended for GARWO III, Patrick thrown to the EWASH25, clock 00:02. PENALTY NEVADA Face mask on TIMOTEO, Josiah enforced 15 yards from the EWASH36 to the NEVADA49 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:02
2ND & 25
OWN 49
0
90.7%
Brendon Lewis pass intercepted, touchback. Cage Schenck return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 11TD13 plays · 75 yds · 5:1791% → 98%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+65
90.8%
Ky Woods run for 75 yds Nevada Penalty, Offensive Holding (Andrew Savaiinaea) to the NEV 21Similar
Q3 14:47
1ST & 14
OWN 21
+10
90.7%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Jaden Smith for 10 yds to the NEV 31Similar
Q3 14:08
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+20
93.2%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Marcus Bellon for 20 yds to the EWU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:46
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-9
93.1%
Brendon Lewis sacked by Brock Harrison for a loss of 9 yards to the EWU 48Similar
Q3 11:19
3RD & 15
OPP 44
-15
93.3%
(11:19) LEWIS, Brendon pass deep to the left complete for 44 yards to BELLON, Marcus caught at the EWASH25 and advanced to the EWASH0, TOUCHDOWN NEVADA, score nullified by penalty, clock 11:09 (Play was confirmed after review). PENALTY NEVADA Face mask on TIMOTEO, Josiah enforced 15 yards from the EWASH44 to the NEVADA41 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EWUDrive 12DOWNS10 plays · 40 yds · 3:245% → 4%
Q3 6:53
3RD & 7
OPP 35
0
95.9%
Michael Wortham pass complete to Efton Chism III for no gain to the NEV 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 13TD14 plays · 65 yds · 5:2499% → 100%
Q3 5:27
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+8
98.8%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Marcus Bellon for 8 yds to the NEV 44Similar
Q3 3:14
2ND & 16
OPP 48
+13
99.5%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Jaden Smith for 13 yds to the EWU 35Similar
Q3 0:43
3RD & 8
OPP 24
+24
99.8%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Jaden Smith for 24 yds for a TD (Matthew Killam KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EWUDrive 14TD8 plays · 75 yds · 3:080% → 0%
Q4 14:30
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+8
99.8%
Kekoa Visperas pass complete to Efton Chism III for 8 yds to the NEV 30Similar
Q4 14:07
2ND & 2
OPP 30
+4
99.7%
Kekoa Visperas pass complete to Efton Chism III for 4 yds to the NEV 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.6%
Malik Dotson run for 2 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 15TD6 plays · 75 yds · 2:43100% → 100%
EWUDrive 16TD4 plays · 86 yds · 1:170% → 0%
Q4 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+19
99.9%
Kekoa Visperas pass complete to Efton Chism III for 19 yds to the EWU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+15
99.9%
Nevada Penalty, Personal Foul (Mackavelli Malotumau) to the NEV 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:24
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+42
99.8%
Michael Wortham pass complete to Noah Cronquist for 42 yds for a TD (Soren McKee KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 17TD14 plays · 80 yds · 6:30100% → 100%
EWUDrive 18END OF GAME8 plays · 34 yds · 1:340% → 0%
Q4 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+3
100.0%
Jared Taylor pass complete to Michael Wortham for 3 yds to the EWU 17Similar
Q4 1:30
2ND & 7
OWN 17
-5
100.0%
(01:30) YETTS, Marceese rush to the left for a gain of 2 yards to the EWASH19 (NNAKENYI, Ike;IKAHIHIFO JR., Tooni), clock 01:25. PENALTY Before the snap, EWASH Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the EWASH17 to the EWASH12. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 1:14
2ND & 12
OWN 12
-2
100.0%
Kekoa Visperas sacked by Jason Douglas Jr. for a loss of 2 yards to the EWU 10Similar
Q4 0:35
3RD & 14
OWN 10
+20
100.0%
Kekoa Visperas pass complete to Efton Chism III for 20 yds to the EWU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:10
3RD & 6
OWN 34
+7
100.0%
Kekoa Visperas pass complete to Jaylen Garrison for 7 yds to the EWU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
100.0%
Kekoa Visperas pass complete to Messiah Jones for 7 yds to the EWU 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:48
Patrick Garwo III run for 7 yds for a TD (Matthew Killam KICK)
+4.1
TD · Q3 9:43
Patrick Garwo III run for 1 yd for a TD (Matthew Killam KICK)
+4
TD · Q1 1:48
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Marcus Bellon for 4 yds for a TD (Matthew Killam KICK)
+2.8