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FRES

Fresno State 38 at New Mexico 21

UNM
2024 · Week 4 · Sep 21, 2024 · University Stadium (NM)
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Win probability · UNM
modelUNM aheadFRES aheadconfidence bandkey playUNM scoreFRES score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGTDTDFGFGTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Devon Dampier run for no gain to the FRES 26
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+48.5+24.30−24.3−48.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 182Home team on offense−44.1Pregame prior+0.0Score differential−20.0Garbage-time factor−19.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−9.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−8.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:10: Bryson Donelson run for 1 yd for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK) — FRES win probability +4.0 pts (now 86%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:24: Raylen Sharpe pass complete to Kamron Beachem for 26 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK) — FRES win probability +4.7 pts (now 95%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:06: Devon Dampier pass complete to Trace Bruckler for 5 yds for a TD (Luke Drzewiecki KICK) — UNM win probability +4.9 pts (now 14%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 12:12: Luke Drzewiecki 32 yd FG GOOD — UNM win probability +4.8 pts (now 10%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:45: Javen Jacobs run for 1 yd for a TD (J. Laubstein Run For Two-point Conversion) — UNM win probability +3.9 pts (now 5%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNM made the numbers' call on 6 of 7FRES made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 14:19FRES 4th & 5 at FRES 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.5%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:18FRES 4th & 3 at UNM 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 75.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    75.7%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    75.7%−<0.1
    80% to make
    Punt
    75.2%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:20UNM 4th & 3 at FRES 3, down 8
    Close callKicked a field goal · 24.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.3%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    23.8%−0.5
    93% to make
    Punt
    20.9%−3.4
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:34UNM 4th & 8 at UNM 41, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.4%−0.5
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 5:03FRES 4th & 7 at UNM 18, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 78.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.4%−0.4
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    77.8%
    79% to make
    Punt
    74.1%−3.7
    average punt
  6. Q3 12:40UNM 4th & 16 at UNM 37, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.7%−1.9
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.6%
    average punt
  7. Q3 7:33FRES 4th & 4 at UNM 35, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 87.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    88.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    87.4%−1.0
    45% to make
    Punt
    86.7%−1.7
    average punt
  8. Q3 4:51FRES 4th & 5 at UNM 23, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 88.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.0%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.2%
    70% to make
    Punt
    82.7%−5.5
    average punt
  9. Q3 2:50FRES 4th & 7 at UNM 41, up 18
    Close callPunted · 94.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.6%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    93.8%−0.8
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    94.2%−0.4
    average punt
  10. Q4 12:12UNM 4th & 15 at FRES 15, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 5.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.4%−1.7
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    5.0%
    83% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−5.2
    average punt
  11. Q4 10:28FRES 4th & 4 at UNM 47, up 15
    Close callPunted · 93.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.6%−0.5
    average punt
  12. Q4 9:10UNM 4th & 1 at UNM 12, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.8%−1.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 1:57FRES 4th & 5 at UNM 13, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.1%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.2%
    85% to make
    Punt
    95.4%−1.8
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:17UNM 4th & 3 at UNM 38, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.9%−0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:00UNM 4th & 2 at FRES 26, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    2.2%−0.3
    64% to make
    Punt
    1.8%−0.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNM made the numbers' call on 2 of 2FRES made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 8:37FRES Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    75.8%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    75.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:10FRES Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:24FRES Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:06UNM Touchdown, down 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 7:08FRES Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 3:45UNM Touchdown, down 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    3.4%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    3.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FRESDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:4087% → 87%
Q1 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
13.2%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:54
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
13.2%
Elijah Gilliam run for 5 yds to the FRES 30Similar
Q1 14:24
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
13.4%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:19
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+3
13.5%
Clay Lawrence punt for 47 yds , Javen Jacobs returns for 3 yds to the UNM 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 2FUMBLE
3 plays · 13 yds · 0:3114% → 14%
Q1 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+8
13.6%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Eli Sanders for 8 yds to the UNM 34Similar
Q1 13:40
2ND & 2
OWN 34
0
13.8%
Devon Dampier pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:36
3RD & 2
OWN 34
+5
13.8%
Eli Sanders run for 5 yds to the UNM 39 Eli Sanders fumbled, recovered by FRES Jahzon Jacks J. Jacks return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 3TD
10 plays · 39 yds · 4:4986% → 86%
Q1 13:26
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
13.8%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Kamron Beachem for 5 yds to the UNM 34Similar
Q1 13:02
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+3
13.9%
Elijah Gilliam run for 3 yds to the UNM 31Similar
Q1 12:21
3RD & 2
OPP 31
+7
14.2%
Elijah Gilliam run for 7 yds to the UNM 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:44
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+6
14.4%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Jalen Moss for 6 yds to the UNM 18Similar
Q1 11:20
2ND & 4
OPP 18
+3
14.6%
Elijah Gilliam run for 3 yds to the UNM 15Similar
Q1 10:55
3RD & 1
OPP 15
-2
14.8%
Elijah Gilliam run for a loss of 2 yards to the UNM 17Similar
Q1 10:18
4TH & 3
OPP 17
+6
15.2%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Elijah Gilliam for 6 yds to the UNM 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:41
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
15.3%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Elijah Gilliam for 5 yds to the UNM 6Similar
Q1 9:21
2ND & 5
OPP 6
+1
15.4%
Elijah Gilliam run for 1 yd to the UNM 5Similar
Q1 8:37
3RD & 4
OPP 5
+5
14.3%
Josiah Freeman 5 Yd pass from Mikey Keene (Jayden Mandal Pass to Brock Lium for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 4FG
15 plays · 73 yds · 6:0815% → 18%
Q1 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
14.6%
Eli Sanders run for 2 yds to the UNM 26Similar
Q1 7:57
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+26
14.8%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Luke Wysong for 26 yds to the FRES 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:31
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+8
15.3%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Ryan Davis for 8 yds to the FRES 40Similar
Q1 7:12
2ND & 2
OPP 40
+2
15.4%
Eli Sanders run for 2 yds to the FRES 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:32
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+8
15.6%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Ryan Davis for 8 yds to the FRES 30Similar
Q1 6:05
2ND & 2
OPP 30
0
16.0%
Devon Dampier pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:59
3RD & 2
OPP 30
+10
15.8%
Eli Sanders run for 10 yds to the FRES 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:29
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
16.2%
Luke Wysong run for 4 yds to the FRES 16Similar
Q1 4:58
2ND & 6
OPP 16
+5
16.3%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Naquari Rogers for 5 yds to the FRES 11Similar
Q1 4:31
3RD & 1
OPP 11
+1
15.9%
Naquari Rogers run for 1 yd to the FRES 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
16.4%
Eli Sanders run for 3 yds to the FRES 7Similar
Q1 3:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
16.6%
Devon Dampier pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:06
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
16.3%
Devon Dampier run for 4 yds to the FRES 3Similar
Q1 2:20
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+20
17.8%
Luke Drzewiecki 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 5TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 6:0682% → 86%
Q1 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
17.6%
Bryson Donelson run for 5 yds to the FRES 30Similar
Q1 1:55
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+6
17.5%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Lyndon Ravare for 6 yds to the FRES 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+29
17.6%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Mac Dalena for 29 yds to the UNM 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:39
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-15
17.2%
Fresno State Penalty, Personal Foul (Bryson Donelson) to the UNM 48Similar
Q1 0:21
2ND & 23
OPP 48
+5
18.0%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Jake Boust for 5 yds to the UNM 43Similar
Q2 14:59
3RD & 18
OPP 43
+5
18.4%
(14:59) KEENE, Mikey pass up the middle complete for 11 yards to GILLIAM, Elijah caught at the UNM44 and advanced to the UNM32 (ELLIS, Christian;TUITELE, Moso'oipala), clock 14:49. PENALTY UNM Offsides on TUITELE, Moso'oipala enforced 5 yards from the UNM43 to the UNM38 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 14:37
3RD & 13
OPP 38
+15
18.3%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Josiah Freeman for 15 yds to the UNM 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:11
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-10
17.5%
(14:11) KEENE, Mikey scrambles to the left for a gain of 1 yard to the UNM22, End of Play, clock 14:06. PENALTY FST Holding on VELEZ, Osmar enforced 10 yards from the UNM23 to the UNM33 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 13:51
1ST & 20
OPP 33
+13
17.8%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Josiah Freeman for 13 yds to the UNM 20Similar
Q2 13:16
2ND & 7
OPP 20
+6
17.8%
Bryson Donelson run for 6 yds to the UNM 14Similar
Q2 12:40
3RD & 1
OPP 14
+5
18.4%
New Mexico Penalty, Offsides (Bryce Santana) to the UNM 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
18.1%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Nathan Acevedo for 6 yds to the UNM 3Similar
Q2 11:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
18.3%
Joshua Wood run for 2 yds to the UNM 1Similar
Q2 11:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
14.3%
Bryson Donelson run for 1 yd for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 16 yds · 1:3516% → 15%
Q2 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
15.5%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Luke Wysong for 14 yds to the UNM 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
15.9%
Javen Jacobs run for 3 yds to the UNM 42Similar
Q2 10:15
2ND & 7
OWN 42
-1
16.1%
Javen Jacobs run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNM 41Similar
Q2 9:39
3RD & 8
OWN 41
0
15.5%
Devon Dampier pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:34
4TH & 8
OWN 41
0
15.4%
Aaron Rodriguez punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Jalen Moss at the FRES 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 7FG
10 plays · 58 yds · 4:2385% → 87%
Q2 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+12
14.9%
Elijah Gilliam run for 12 yds to the FRES 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
14.6%
(08:45) KEENE, Mikey pass to the left incomplete intended for BEACHEM, Kamron thrown to the FST48; QB hurried by WILSON, Jayden, clock 08:41 (Play was confirmed after review). PENALTY UNM Targeting on WILSON, Jayden enforced 15 yards from the FST36 to the UNM49 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 8:39
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
14.3%
Elijah Gilliam run for 7 yds to the UNM 42Similar
Q2 8:20
2ND & 3
OPP 42
+10
14.2%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Raylen Sharpe for 10 yds to the UNM 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:44
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
14.5%
Elijah Gilliam run for 4 yds to the UNM 28Similar
Q2 7:08
2ND & 6
OPP 28
+7
14.4%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Richie Anderson for 7 yds to the UNM 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:32
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
14.5%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Elijah Gilliam for 1 yd to the UNM 20Similar
Q2 5:48
2ND & 9
OPP 20
+2
14.5%
Elijah Gilliam run for 2 yds to the UNM 18Similar
Q2 5:10
3RD & 7
OPP 18
0
14.7%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:03
4TH & 7
OPP 18
+36
12.6%
Dylan Lynch 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 8INT
8 plays · 27 yds · 2:5313% → 14%
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
13.2%
Devon Dampier pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:53
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
13.1%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Luke Wysong for 5 yds to the UNM 30Similar
Q2 4:12
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+9
13.1%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Ryan Davis for 9 yds to the UNM 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-4
13.9%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Eli Sanders for a loss of 4 yards to the UNM 35Similar
Q2 3:06
2ND & 14
OWN 35
+27
13.1%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Luke Wysong for 27 yds to the FRES 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:33
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-5
14.1%
New Mexico Penalty, False Start (Ryan Davis) to the FRES 43Similar
Q2 2:19
1ST & 15
OPP 43
-5
13.8%
(02:19) DAMPIER, Devon pass to the left complete for 16 yards to DAVIS, Ryan caught at the FST32 and advanced to the FST27 (LOCKRIDGE, Cameron), clock 02:14. PENALTY UNM Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on AGNELLO, McKenzie enforced 5 yards from the FST43 to the FST48 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 2:07
1ST & 20
OPP 48
-4
13.6%
Devon Dampier pass intercepted Al'zillion Hamilton return for 4 yds to the FRES 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 9TD
5 plays · 58 yds · 0:3690% → 95%
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+12
10.4%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Jalen Moss for 12 yds to the UNM 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:57
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
10.1%
Elijah Gilliam run for 3 yds to the UNM 43Similar
Q2 1:40
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+12
10.1%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Mac Dalena for 12 yds to the UNM 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
9.9%
(01:36) KEENE, Mikey pass deep to the right incomplete intended for SHARPE, Raylen thrown to the UNM7, clock 01:31. PENALTY UNM Offsides on TUITELE, Moso'oipala enforced 5 yards from the UNM31 to the UNM26 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 1:24
1ST & 5
OPP 26
+26
5.2%
Raylen Sharpe pass complete to Kamron Beachem for 26 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 10TD
15 plays · 93 yds · 1:109% → 14%
Q2 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+10
8.5%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Nic Trujillo for 10 yds to the UNM 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+5
8.7%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Javen Jacobs for 5 yds to the UNM 22Similar
Q2 1:06
2ND & 5
OWN 22
+18
8.8%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Nic Trujillo for 18 yds to the UNM 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+16
9.3%
Devon Dampier run for 16 yds to the FRES 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
9.8%
Devon Dampier pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:49
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+18
9.7%
Devon Dampier run for 18 yds to the FRES 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-10
10.6%
(00:43) DAMPIER, Devon pass to the right incomplete intended for DAVIS, Ryan thrown to the FST16; QB hurried by NOMURA, Tuasivi, clock 00:37. PENALTY UNM Holding on PEARCE, Richard enforced 10 yards from the FST26 to the FST36 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:34
1ST & 20
OPP 36
+17
10.1%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Luke Wysong for 17 yds to the FRES 19Similar
Q2 0:24
2ND & 3
OPP 19
+4
10.6%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Javen Jacobs for 4 yds to the FRES 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
10.6%
Devon Dampier pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:18
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+5
10.6%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Javen Jacobs for 5 yds to the FRES 10Similar
Q2 0:12
3RD & 5
OPP 10
+5
9.0%
(00:12) DAMPIER, Devon pass to the right incomplete intended for TRUJILLO, Nic broken up by NEAL, Julian at the FST0, clock 00:10. PENALTY FST Offsides on HAMILTON, Al'zillion enforced 5 yards from the FST10 to the FST5 and results in a 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
13.9%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Trace Bruckler for 5 yds for a TD (Luke Drzewiecki KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 11END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
11.0%
(00:05) [NH] Kneel down by KEENE, Mikey at FST24 (team loss of 1), clock 00:01.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 12PUNT
9 plays · 12 yds · 2:2613% → 11%
Q3 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
13.0%
Devon Dampier pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
12.8%
Devon Dampier pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:50
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+18
12.6%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Caleb Medford for 18 yds to the UNM 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-4
14.0%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Javen Jacobs for a loss of 4 yards to the UNM 39Similar
Q3 13:32
2ND & 14
OWN 39
+3
12.9%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Luke Wysong for 3 yds to the UNM 42Similar
Q3 12:59
3RD & 11
OWN 42
-5
13.0%
New Mexico Penalty, False Start (Luke Wysong) to the UNM 37Similar
Q3 12:48
3RD & 16
OWN 37
0
12.4%
Devon Dampier pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:40
4TH & 16
OWN 37
0
12.3%
Aaron Rodriguez punt for 43 ydsSimilar
Q3 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-10
10.8%
(12:33) DONELSON, Bryson rush to the left for a gain of 3 yards to the FST23 (BRANDT-EPPS, Devin), clock 12:30. PENALTY FST Holding on MCHARG, Campbell enforced 10 yards from the FST20 to the FST10 [NH]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 13FG
14 plays · 57 yds · 7:2589% → 94%
Q3 12:16
1ST & 20
OWN 10
+9
10.7%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Josiah Freeman for 9 yds to the FRES 19Similar
Q3 11:44
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+12
10.8%
Joshua Wood run for 12 yds to the FRES 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
10.5%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Raylen Sharpe for 9 yds to the FRES 40Similar
Q3 10:34
2ND & 1
OWN 40
+1
9.9%
Bryson Donelson run for 1 yd to the FRES 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
9.2%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Raylen Sharpe for 7 yds to the FRES 48Similar
Q3 9:20
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+11
9.0%
Bryson Donelson run for 11 yds to the UNM 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:52
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-4
8.9%
Mikey Keene sacked by Dimitri Johnson for a loss of 4 yards to the UNM 45Similar
Q3 8:13
2ND & 14
OPP 45
+10
9.0%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Raylen Sharpe for 10 yds to the UNM 35Similar
Q3 7:36
3RD & 4
OPP 35
0
8.6%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:33
4TH & 4
OPP 35
+7
9.8%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Raylen Sharpe for 7 yds to the UNM 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:49
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-5
8.4%
Mikey Keene run for a loss of 5 yards to the UNM 33 Mikey Keene fumbled, recovered by FRES Mikey Keene M. Keene return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q3 6:11
2ND & 15
OPP 33
+4
8.8%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Josiah Freeman for 4 yds to the UNM 29Similar
Q3 5:35
3RD & 11
OPP 29
+6
8.7%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Mac Dalena for 6 yds to the UNM 23Similar
Q3 4:51
4TH & 5
OPP 23
+42
6.3%
Dylan Lynch 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 14INT
3 plays · 4 yds · 0:408% → 8%
Q3 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
8.2%
Devon Dampier pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:42
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
8.1%
Eli Sanders run for 4 yds to the UNM 29Similar
Q3 4:09
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
8.1%
Devon Dampier pass intercepted Julian Neal return for no gain to the UNM 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:1195% → 95%
Q3 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
5.4%
Bryson Donelson run for no gain to the UNM 44Similar
Q3 3:35
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+3
4.6%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Elijah Gilliam for 3 yds to the UNM 41Similar
Q3 2:57
3RD & 7
OPP 41
0
4.5%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:50
4TH & 7
OPP 41
0
4.8%
Clay Lawrence punt for 41 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 16FG
14 plays · 65 yds · 5:318% → 10%
Q3 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
7.9%
Naquari Rogers run for 4 yds to the UNM 24Similar
Q3 2:15
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+18
7.4%
Devon Dampier run for 18 yds to the UNM 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-10
7.7%
(01:50) DAMPIER, Devon pass deep up the middle complete for 58 yards to TRUJILLO, Nic caught at the FST19 and advanced to the FST0, TOUCHDOWN UNM, score nullified by penalty, clock 01:44 (Play was confirmed after review). PENALTY UNM Holding on PEARCE, Richard enforced 10 yards from the UNM42 to the UNM32 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 1:42
1ST & 20
OWN 32
-1
6.8%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Luke Wysong for a loss of 1 yard to the UNM 31Similar
Q3 0:57
2ND & 21
OWN 31
+36
6.7%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Nic Trujillo for 36 yds to the FRES 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:29
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-15
7.8%
(00:29) SANDERS, Eli rush to the left for a gain of 6 yards to the FST27 (JACKSON, Phoenix), clock 00:25. PENALTY UNM Personal Foul on DAVIS, Ryan enforced 15 yards from the FST33 to the FST48 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 0:09
1ST & 25
OPP 48
+26
6.8%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Luke Wysong for 26 yds to the FRES 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:58
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
7.9%
Devon Dampier run for 2 yds to the FRES 20Similar
Q4 14:28
2ND & 8
OPP 20
+12
7.5%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Ryan Davis for 12 yds to the FRES 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
6.7%
Naquari Rogers run for no gain to the FRES 8Similar
Q4 13:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
6.1%
Eli Sanders run for 3 yds to the FRES 5Similar
Q4 12:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
-10
5.6%
(12:48) DAMPIER, Devon scrambles to the left for a gain of 4 yards to the FST1 (JACKS, Jahzon), out of bounds, clock 12:40. PENALTY UNM Holding on BECKETT, Baraka enforced 10 yards from the FST5 to the FST15 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 12:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 15
0
5.1%
Devon Dampier pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:12
4TH & GOAL
OPP 15
+32
9.9%
Luke Drzewiecki 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 28 yds · 1:4194% → 95%
Q4 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
6.2%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Jalen Moss for 22 yds to the FRES 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
5.4%
Elijah Gilliam run for no gain to the FRES 47Similar
Q4 10:57
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+6
5.0%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Raylen Sharpe for 6 yds to the UNM 47Similar
Q4 10:31
3RD & 4
OPP 47
0
5.0%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:28
4TH & 4
OPP 47
0
5.5%
Clay Lawrence punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Javen Jacobs at the UNM 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 18DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:097% → 6%
Q4 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 3
0
6.6%
Devon Dampier pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:14
2ND & 10
OWN 3
+8
6.5%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Luke Wysong for 8 yds to the UNM 11Similar
Q4 9:48
3RD & 2
OWN 11
+1
6.4%
Luke Wysong run for 1 yd to the UNM 12Similar
Q4 9:10
4TH & 1
OWN 12
0
5.9%
Devon Dampier run for no gain to the UNM 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 19TD
7 plays · 12 yds · 1:5695% → 99%
Q4 9:04
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
4.6%
New Mexico Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (2 Yards) to the UNM 10Similar
Q4 8:42
2ND & 8
OPP 10
0
4.5%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:39
3RD & 8
OPP 10
+5
4.6%
(08:39) KEENE, Mikey pass to the left incomplete intended for FREEMAN, Josiah thrown to the UNM0; QB hurried by KPAI, Randolph, clock 08:33. PENALTY UNM Holding on POLA-GATES, Noa enforced half the distance from the goal, 5 yards from the UNM10 to the UNM5 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 8:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
4.5%
Elijah Gilliam run for 1 yd to the UNM 4Similar
Q4 7:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
4.4%
(07:50) KEENE, Mikey pass short up the middle incomplete intended for SHARPE, Raylen thrown to the UNM0, clock 07:47. PENALTY UNM Pass Interference on WILLIAMS, Nigel enforced at the spot of the foul for 2 yards to the UNM2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 7:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
4.3%
Mac Dalena run for 1 yd to the UNM 1Similar
Q4 7:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
1.1%
Elijah Gilliam run for 1 yd for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 20TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:201% → 5%
Q4 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
1.4%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Ryan Davis for 16 yds to the UNM 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
1.1%
Javen Jacobs run for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 6:21
2ND & 1
50
+19
1.2%
Javen Jacobs run for 19 yds to the FRES 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:58
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
1.3%
Javen Jacobs run for 2 yds to the FRES 29Similar
Q4 5:35
2ND & 8
OPP 29
+5
1.3%
(05:35) JACOBS, Javen rush up the middle for a gain of 3 yards to the FST26 (JACKSON, Phoenix), clock 05:33. PENALTY Before the snap, FST Illegal Substitution enforced 5 yards from the FST29 to the FST24. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 5:30
2ND & 3
OPP 24
+1
1.3%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Luke Wysong for 1 yd to the FRES 23Similar
Q4 5:10
3RD & 2
OPP 23
-5
1.2%
New Mexico Penalty, False Start (Baraka Beckett) to the FRES 28Similar
Q4 4:46
3RD & 7
OPP 28
+14
1.2%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Ryan Davis for 14 yds to the FRES 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:29
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
1.3%
Devon Dampier pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:25
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+13
1.3%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Nic Trujillo for 13 yds to the FRES 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
5.2%
Javen Jacobs run for 1 yd for a TD (J. Laubstein Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 21FG
9 plays · 28 yds · 1:3997% → 98%
Q4 3:36
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
3.2%
Bryson Donelson run for no gain to the UNM 41Similar
Q4 2:58
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+8
2.8%
Bryson Donelson run for 8 yds to the UNM 33Similar
Q4 2:43
3RD & 2
OPP 33
+15
2.5%
(02:43) KEENE, Mikey pass deep to the left incomplete intended for FREEMAN, Josiah broken up by POLA-GATES, Noa at the UNM10, clock 02:39. PENALTY UNM Pass Interference on POLA-GATES, Noa enforced 15 yards to the UNM18 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 2:38
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
2.4%
Elijah Gilliam run for 1 yd to the UNM 17Similar
Q4 2:31
2ND & 9
OPP 17
+3
2.4%
Elijah Gilliam run for 3 yds to the UNM 14Similar
Q4 2:23
3RD & 6
OPP 14
+1
2.3%
Elijah Gilliam run for 1 yd to the UNM 13Similar
Q4 1:57
4TH & 5
OPP 13
+31
1.6%
Dylan Lynch 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 22DOWNS
12 plays · 43 yds · 1:471% → 1%
Q4 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
0.9%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Javen Jacobs for 5 yds to the UNM 36Similar
Q4 1:42
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+2
1.0%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Javen Jacobs for 2 yds to the UNM 38Similar
Q4 1:23
3RD & 3
OWN 38
0
0.9%
Devon Dampier pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:17
4TH & 3
OWN 38
+3
0.9%
Devon Dampier run for 3 yds to the UNM 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
0.8%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Caleb Medford for 7 yds to the UNM 48Similar
Q4 0:50
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+6
1.0%
Devon Dampier run for 6 yds to the FRES 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
0.9%
Devon Dampier pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:39
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+12
0.9%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Ryan Davis for 12 yds to the FRES 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:29
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
1.0%
Devon Dampier pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:22
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
1.0%
Devon Dampier pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:14
3RD & 10
OPP 34
+8
1.0%
Javen Jacobs run for 8 yds to the FRES 26Similar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 2
OPP 26
0
1.0%
Devon Dampier run for no gain to the FRES 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:06
Devon Dampier pass complete to Trace Bruckler for 5 yds for a TD (Luke Drzewiecki KICK)
+4.9
FG · Q4 12:12
Luke Drzewiecki 32 yd FG GOOD
+4.8
TD · Q2 1:24
Raylen Sharpe pass complete to Kamron Beachem for 26 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)
-4.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com