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Win probability · WYO
modelWYO aheadIDHO aheadconfidence bandkey playWYO scoreIDHO score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:24 · LJ Harm punt for 50 yds , Caleb Cooley returns for 5 yds to the WYO 22
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 11:33: Jack Wagner pass complete to Jake Cox for 2 yds for a TD (Cameron Pope KICK) — IDHO win probability +4.5 pts (now 36%) (top driver: IDHO has the ball).
- FG · Q2 4:40: Cameron Pope 49 yd FG GOOD — IDHO win probability +6.9 pts (now 45%) (top driver: IDHO has the ball).
- FG · Q4 14:57: John Hoyland 22 yd FG GOOD — WYO win probability +6.6 pts (now 49%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 5:00: DJ Jones run for 3 yds to the IDHO 45 — WYO win probability +10.5 pts (now 42%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 1:55: Timeout Wyoming, clock 01:55 — IDHO win probability +14.3 pts (now 88%) (top driver: IDHO has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WYO made the numbers' call on 6 of 9IDHO made the numbers' call on 10 of 11
- Q1 12:50WYO 4th & 5 at IDHO 31, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 68.0% before the snapGo for it68.0%41% to convertField goalTheir call68.0%−<0.154% to makePunt67.9%−0.1average punt
- Q1 10:39IDHO 4th & 9 at IDHO 20, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.7% before the snapGo for it31.6%−0.130% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call31.7%average punt
- Q1 6:36IDHO 4th & 1 at WYO 3, down 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call32.4%63% to convertField goal31.8%−0.693% to makePunt30.2%−2.2average punt
- Q2 11:33IDHO 4th & 2 at WYO 2, down 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call33.8%48% to convertField goal32.9%−0.994% to makePunt29.4%−4.4average punt
- Q2 8:23WYO 4th & 8 at IDHO 36, down 4Close callKicked a field goal · 61.4% before the snapGo for it61.4%34% to convertField goalTheir call61.0%−0.342% to makePunt60.6%−0.7average punt
- Q2 4:40IDHO 4th & 15 at WYO 32, up 4Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 40.8% before the snapGo for it39.4%−1.217% to convertField goalTheir call40.6%51% to makePunt39.4%−1.2average punt
- Q2 4:40WYO 4th & 1 at IDHO 47, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 54.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call54.2%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt51.7%−2.6average punt
- Q2 0:53WYO 4th & 1 at IDHO 35, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 51.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call52.4%71% to convertField goal50.9%−1.545% to makePunt48.7%−3.6average punt
- Q3 13:17IDHO 4th & 18 at IDHO 17, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.1% before the snapGo for it49.4%−3.912% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call53.4%average punt
- Q3 11:41WYO 4th & 8 at WYO 48, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.9% before the snapGo for it45.8%−0.834% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call46.6%average punt
- Q3 8:49IDHO 4th & 9 at IDHO 28, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.3% before the snapGo for it55.1%−2.230% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call57.2%average punt
- Q3 6:25WYO 4th & 8 at WYO 48, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.4% before the snapGo for it42.3%−0.934% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call43.2%average punt
- Q3 3:26IDHO 4th & 8 at IDHO 45, up 7Numbers favored punt by 1.4 ptsWent for it · 63.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call63.6%−1.434% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt65.0%average punt
- Q4 14:57WYO 4th & 5 at IDHO 5, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 37.7% before the snapGo for it36.7%−0.333% to convertField goalTheir call37.0%92% to makePunt22.7%−14.4average punt
- Q4 12:46IDHO 4th & 6 at WYO 39, up 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 61.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call62.4%40% to convertField goal60.0%−2.436% to makePunt60.3%−2.1average punt
- Q4 10:07WYO 4th & 4 at IDHO 43, down 4Numbers favored go for it by 3.3 ptsPunted · 44.5% before the snapGo for it43.2%48% to convertField goal38.8%−4.428% to makePuntTheir call39.9%−3.3average punt
- Q4 8:28IDHO 4th & 14 at IDHO 11, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.6% before the snapGo for it56.2%−9.017% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call65.2%average punt
- Q4 7:03WYO 4th & 21 at WYO 39, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.0% before the snapGo for it28.0%−4.49% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call32.4%average punt
- Q4 5:00IDHO 4th & 10 at IDHO 10, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.1% before the snapGo for it63.5%−3.727% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call67.2%average punt
- Q4 0:24IDHO 4th & 12 at IDHO 33, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.8% before the snapGo for it84.3%−2.423% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call86.7%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WYO made the numbers' call on 1 of 1IDHO made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 6:36IDHO Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call34.2%97% to makeGo for two34.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 2:06WYO Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call67.7%97% to makeGo for two67.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 11:33IDHO Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call38.0%97% to makeGo for two37.9%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWYODrive 1FG7 plays · 44 yds · 2:1073% → 73%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 2PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 2:0527% → 27%
Q1 12:44
2ND & 9
OWN 20
+2
72.7%
Jack Wagner pass complete to Jordan Dwyer for 2 yds to the IDHO 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 3FUMBLE1 play · -15 yds · 0:0073% → 73%
Q1 10:33
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-15
72.8%
run for a loss of 15 yards to the WYO 37 fumbled, recovered by IDHO Isiah King I. King return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 4TD7 plays · 37 yds · 3:5728% → 30%
Q1 10:33
2ND & 4
OPP 18
+6
71.9%
Jack Wagner pass complete to Jordan Dwyer for 6 yds to the WYO 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 5TD9 plays · 72 yds · 4:2370% → 72%
Q1 2:06
3RD & 5
OPP 20
+20
72.0%
Evan Svoboda pass complete to Devin Boddie Jr. for 20 yds for a TD (John Hoyland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 6TD14 plays · 75 yds · 5:3329% → 36%
Q1 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+26
71.2%
Jack Wagner pass complete to Jordan Dwyer for 26 yds to the WYO 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:06
2ND & 4
OPP 43
+12
69.8%
Jack Wagner pass complete to Jordan Dwyer for 12 yds to the WYO 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
68.9%
Jack Wagner pass complete to Jordan Dwyer for 5 yds to the WYO 26Similar
Q2 11:33
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
64.0%
Jack Wagner pass complete to Jake Cox for 2 yds for a TD (Cameron Pope KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 7MISSED FG9 plays · 39 yds · 3:1065% → 64%
Q2 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
64.9%
Evan Svoboda pass complete to Nick Miles for 9 yds to the WYO 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 8FG9 plays · 32 yds · 3:4338% → 45%
Q2 8:23
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+15
63.0%
WAGNER, Jack pass deep to the right incomplete intended for DWYER, Jordan thrown to the WYO40. PENALTY WYO Pass Interference on DAVIS, Tyrecus enforced 15 yards to the IDH50 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 8:23
2ND & 2
OPP 42
+15
60.7%
Jack Wagner pass complete to Jordan Dwyer for 15 yds to the WYO 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:23
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-10
60.5%
WAGNER, Jack pass deep to the left incomplete intended for HAMPER, Mark thrown to the WYO7. PENALTY IDH Holding on KNAPIK, Ayden enforced 10 yards from the WYO27 to the WYO37 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 9DOWNS13 plays · 40 yds · 3:4755% → 55%
Q2 4:40
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+14
55.0%
Evan Svoboda pass complete to Devin Boddie Jr. for 14 yds to the WYO 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:31
2ND & 10
OPP 44
-1
55.9%
Evan Svoboda pass complete to DJ Jones for a loss of 1 yard to the IDHO 45Similar
Q2 1:31
3RD & 11
OPP 45
+5
54.3%
SVOBODA, Evan sacked for a loss of 6 yards at the WYO49 (JAMES-NEWBY, Keyshawn). PENALTY IDH Offsides on JAMES-NEWBY, Keyshawn enforced 5 yards from the IDH45 to the IDH40 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 1:31
3RD & 6
OPP 40
+5
56.1%
Evan Svoboda pass complete to Jamari Ferrell for 5 yds to the IDHO 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 10END OF HALF4 plays · -5 yds · 0:5351% → 51%
Q2 0:00
3RD & 13
OWN 32
-2
50.4%
[SG] Kneel down by WAGNER, Jack at IDH30 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 11PUNT4 plays · -8 yds · 1:4350% → 49%
Q3 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+3
50.2%
Jack Wagner pass complete to Elisha Cummings for 3 yds to the IDHO 23Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 23
-6
51.0%
Jack Wagner pass complete to Art Williams for a loss of 6 yards to the IDHO 17Similar
Q3 13:17
4TH & 18
OWN 17
0
50.7%
LJ Harm punt for 49 yds , Caleb Cooley returns for no gain to the WYO 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 12PUNT7 plays · 14 yds · 1:3651% → 49%
Q3 13:17
3RD & 8
OWN 36
+10
49.9%
SVOBODA, Evan pass deep to the right incomplete intended for BROWN, Alex thrown to the IDH20. PENALTY IDH Holding on BEACHEM, Kyrin enforced 10 yards from the WYO36 to the WYO46 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 11:41
4TH & 8
OWN 48
0
48.5%
Jack Culbreath punt for 41 yds , Andrew Marshall returns for no gain to the IDHO 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 13PUNT6 plays · 17 yds · 2:5253% → 53%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 14PUNT6 plays · 22 yds · 2:2447% → 44%
Q3 8:49
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+17
47.1%
Evan Svoboda pass complete to Jamari Ferrell for 17 yds to the WYO 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:49
3RD & 7
OWN 49
-1
48.5%
Evan Svoboda sacked for a loss of 1 yard to the WYO 48 Evan Svoboda fumbled, recovered by WYO Nofoafia Tulafono , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 6:25
4TH & 8
OWN 48
+5
44.4%
Jack Culbreath punt for 40 yds , Andrew Marshall returns for 5 yds to the IDHO 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 15DOWNS8 plays · 33 yds · 2:5958% → 62%
Q3 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+15
40.9%
WAGNER, Jack pass deep to the right incomplete intended for DWYER, Jordan thrown to the WYO31. PENALTY WYO Pass Interference on DAVIS, Tyrecus enforced 15 yards to the IDH43 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
38.9%
Jack Wagner pass complete to Mark Hamper for 2 yds to the IDHO 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 16FG9 plays · 45 yds · 3:2947% → 49%
Q3 3:26
1ST & 10
50
+38
46.6%
Evan Svoboda pass complete to Will Pelissier for 38 yds to the IDHO 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 17DOWNS7 plays · 36 yds · 2:1158% → 60%
Q4 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+32
42.2%
Jack Wagner pass complete to Mark Hamper for 32 yds to the WYO 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 18PUNT6 plays · 18 yds · 2:3949% → 48%
IDHODrive 19PUNT4 plays · -4 yds · 1:3962% → 62%
WYODrive 20PUNT6 plays · -11 yds · 1:2549% → 32%
Q4 8:28
3RD & 14
OWN 46
-7
42.6%
Evan Svoboda sacked by Keyshawn James-Newby for a loss of 7 yards to the WYO 39Similar
Q4 7:03
4TH & 21
OWN 39
0
38.0%
Jack Culbreath punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Andrew Marshall at the IDHO 10Similar
Q4 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-14
31.7%
WAGNER, Jack pass deep to the right complete for 14 yards to DWYER, Jordan caught at the IDH27 and advanced to the IDH24 (PARKS, Keany). PENALTY IDH Holding enforced half the distance from the goal, 5 yards from the IDH10 to the IDH5 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 21PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 2:0367% → 69%
WYODrive 22PUNT11 plays · -14 yds · 3:0042% → 26%
Q4 5:00
2ND & 10
OPP 38
-10
41.7%
SVOBODA, Evan pass to the left complete for 9 yards to FERRELL, Jamari caught at the IDH38 and advanced to the IDH29 (MCCORMICK, Tommy). PENALTY WYO Holding enforced 10 yards from the IDH38 to the IDH48 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 20
OPP 48
-5
38.9%
SVOBODA, Evan pass short up the middle complete for 8 yards to FERRELL, Jamari caught at the IDH46 and advanced to the IDH40 (JOHNSON, Zach). PENALTY Before the snap, WYO Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the IDH48 to the WYO47. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 5:00
3RD & 25
OWN 47
+5
34.8%
SVOBODA, Evan pass deep to the left incomplete intended for STEVENSON, Justin thrown to the IDH22. PENALTY IDH Offsides enforced 5 yards from the WYO47 to the IDH48 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 5:00
3RD & 25
OWN 47
-9
34.8%
Evan Svoboda sacked by Keyshawn James-Newby for a loss of 9 yards to the WYO 38Similar
Q4 2:00
4TH & 34
OWN 38
0
26.2%
Jack Culbreath punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jordan Dwyer at the IDHO 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 23PUNT10 plays · 13 yds · 1:3188% → 93%
Q4 0:33
3RD & 9
OWN 36
-3
6.1%
Elisha Cummings run for a loss of 3 yards to the IDHO 33 Elisha Cummings fumbled, recovered by IDHO Elisha Cummings E. Cummings return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q4 0:24
4TH & 12
OWN 33
+5
7.1%
LJ Harm punt for 50 yds , Caleb Cooley returns for 5 yds to the WYO 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 24END OF GAME4 plays · 6 yds · 0:2414% → 14%
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q4 1:55
Timeout Wyoming, clock 01:55
-14.3
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-14.2
KEY PLAY · Q4 5:00
DJ Jones run for 3 yds to the IDHO 45
+10.5