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SAC

Sacramento State 30 at Fresno State 46

FRES
2024 · Week 2 · Sep 7, 2024 · Valley Children's Stadium
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Win probability · FRES
modelFRES aheadSAC aheadconfidence bandkey playFRES scoreSAC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:50 · Dylan Lynch 46 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+41.0+20.50−20.5−41.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 173Pregame prior+1.6Home team on offense+31.1Score differential+14.8Garbage-time factor+14.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+18.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+9.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:53: Kaiden Bennett pass complete to Jared Gipson for 78 yds for a TD (Zach Schreiner KICK) — SAC win probability +4.8 pts (now 10%) (top driver: SAC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 12:25: Carson Conklin pass complete to Ezra Moleni for 13 yds for a TD (Zach Schreiner KICK) — SAC win probability +5.9 pts (now 16%) (top driver: SAC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 3:32: Mikey Keene pass complete to Tyler Mello for 1 yd for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK) — FRES win probability +5.7 pts (now 95%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 11:43: Carson Conklin pass complete to Austin Jarrard for 3 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — SAC win probability +5.6 pts (now 7%) (top driver: SAC has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:51: Carson Conklin pass complete to Anderson Grover for 36 yds for a TD (Zach Schreiner KICK) — SAC win probability +4.0 pts (now 5%) (top driver: SAC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FRES made the numbers' call on 4 of 8SAC made the numbers' call on 10 of 10
  1. Q1 12:10SAC 4th & 5 at SAC 38, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.8%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:02SAC 4th & 7 at FRES 16, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 12.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.9%−<0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    11.9%
    81% to make
    Punt
    11.5%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:19FRES 4th & 2 at FRES 33, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.2%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:12SAC 4th & 8 at SAC 37, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.8%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.9%
    average punt
  5. Q1 7:13FRES 4th & 4 at SAC 14, up 12
    Close callKicked a field goal · 88.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.5%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.5%−<0.1
    84% to make
    Punt
    87.3%−1.1
    average punt
  6. Q1 5:58SAC 4th & 12 at SAC 30, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.9%−0.3
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.2%
    average punt
  7. Q1 2:08FRES 4th & 30 at SAC 30, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 89.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.8%−0.5
    7% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.3%
    56% to make
    Punt
    89.0%−0.3
    average punt
  8. Q1 0:46SAC 4th & 10 at SAC 41, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.9%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.3%
    average punt
  9. Q2 11:16SAC 4th & 11 at SAC 24, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.0%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.1%
    average punt
  10. Q2 9:30SAC 4th & 1 at FRES 33, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    5.9%−0.2
    49% to make
    Punt
    5.9%−0.2
    average punt
  11. Q2 6:36FRES 4th & 8 at SAC 47, up 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.8%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.8%
    average punt
  12. Q2 4:24FRES 4th & 2 at FRES 33, up 15
    Close callPunted · 90.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 10:49FRES 4th & 3 at FRES 28, up 8
    Close callPunted · 85.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.0%−0.4
    average punt
  14. Q3 9:45SAC 4th & 5 at SAC 47, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.8%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.9%
    average punt
  15. Q3 3:32FRES 4th & 1 at SAC 1, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 88.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    87.8%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    84.9%−2.9
    94% to make
    Punt
    77.4%−10.4
    average punt
  16. Q3 2:36SAC 4th & 11 at SAC 10, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.9%−0.7
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.7%
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:50FRES 4th & 3 at SAC 28, up 16
    Close callKicked a field goal · 98.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.0%−0.1
    60% to make
    Punt
    97.3%−0.9
    average punt
  18. Q4 0:09SAC 4th & 5 at FRES 39, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.4%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    1.9%−0.5
    36% to make
    Punt
    1.7%−0.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FRES made the numbers' call on 4 of 5SAC made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 14:50FRES Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    88.6%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    88.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:49FRES Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 5:53SAC Touchdown, down 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 12:25SAC Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 3:32FRES Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 1:05FRES Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 11:43SAC Touchdown, down 16 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    4.2%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    4.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 8:06FRES Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 6:51SAC Touchdown, down 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FRESDrive 1TD
1 play · 75 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
90.6%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Mac Dalena for 75 yds for a TD (M. Keene Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SACDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 2:339% → 10%
Q1 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+9
90.6%
Elijah Tau-Tolliver run for 9 yds to the SAC 27Similar
Q1 14:43
2ND & 1
OWN 27
+6
90.6%
Elijah Tau-Tolliver run for 6 yds to the SAC 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+9
90.6%
Kaiden Bennett pass complete to Danny Scudero for 9 yds to the SAC 42Similar
Q1 14:43
2ND & 1
OWN 42
-3
90.6%
Kaiden Bennett pass complete to Danny Scudero for 7 yds to the SAC 49 Sacramento State Penalty, Offensive Holding (Kaiden Bennett) to the SAC 35Similar
Q1 14:43
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+3
90.6%
Danny Scudero run for 3 yds to the SAC 38Similar
Q1 14:43
3RD & 5
OWN 38
0
90.6%
Kaiden Bennett pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:10
4TH & 5
OWN 38
+45
90.3%
Cal McGough punt for 45 yds , Jalen Moss returns for no gain to the FRES 19 , returns for no gain to the FRES 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SACDrive 3FG
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:0810% → 10%
Q1 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
90.1%
Elijah Tau-Tolliver run for no gain to the FRES 19Similar
Q1 12:10
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+3
90.1%
Elijah Tau-Tolliver run for 3 yds to the FRES 16Similar
Q1 12:10
3RD & 7
OPP 16
0
90.2%
Kaiden Bennett pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:02
4TH & 7
OPP 16
+34
89.7%
Zach Schreiner 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:4390% → 89%
Q1 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
89.8%
Malik Sherrod run for 3 yds to the FRES 28Similar
Q1 11:02
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
89.8%
Malik Sherrod run for 3 yds to the FRES 31Similar
Q1 11:02
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+2
89.7%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Jalen Moss for 2 yds to the FRES 33Similar
Q1 9:19
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
89.3%
Clay Lawrence punt for 32 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SACDrive 5PUNT RETURN TD
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:0711% → 10%
Q1 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
89.4%
Elijah Tau-Tolliver run for 2 yds to the SAC 37Similar
Q1 9:19
2ND & 8
OWN 37
0
89.3%
Kaiden Bennett pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:19
3RD & 8
OWN 37
0
89.4%
Kaiden Bennett pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:12
4TH & 8
OWN 37
+85
90.1%
Cal McGough punt for 48 yds , Jalen Moss returns for 85 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SACDrive 6FUMBLE
1 play · -5 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q1 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
90.0%
Kaiden Bennett run for a loss of 5 yards to the SAC 20 Kaiden Bennett fumbled, recovered by FRES Tuasivi Nomura T. Nomura return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 7FG
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:5391% → 91%
Q1 8:06
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
90.7%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:06
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+6
90.7%
Jalen Moss run for 6 yds to the SAC 14Similar
Q1 8:06
3RD & 4
OPP 14
0
90.6%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:13
4TH & 4
OPP 14
+32
91.0%
Dylan Lynch 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SACDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 11 yds · 1:099% → 9%
Q1 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+13
90.6%
Elijah Tau-Tolliver run for 13 yds to the SAC 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-2
90.6%
Elijah Tau-Tolliver run for a loss of 2 yards to the SAC 30Similar
Q1 7:07
2ND & 12
OWN 30
0
90.7%
Kaiden Bennett pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:07
3RD & 12
OWN 30
0
90.7%
Kaiden Bennett pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:58
4TH & 12
OWN 30
0
90.7%
Cal McGough punt for 54 yds , Jalen Moss returns for no gain to the FRES 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 9MISSED FG
8 plays · 54 yds · 3:5091% → 91%
Q1 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+11
91.0%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Jordan Brown for 11 yds to the FRES 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
91.0%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Mac Dalena for 7 yds to the FRES 34Similar
Q1 5:58
2ND & 3
OWN 34
+5
91.1%
Malik Sherrod run for 5 yds to the FRES 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+55
91.2%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Mac Dalena for 55 yds to the SAC 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
91.3%
Malik Sherrod run for no gain to the SAC 6Similar
Q1 5:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-7
91.3%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Malik Sherrod for a loss of 7 yards to the SAC 13Similar
Q1 5:58
3RD & GOAL
OPP 13
-17
91.2%
Mikey Keene sacked by Mason Brosseau for a loss of 17 yards to the SAC 30Similar
Q1 2:08
4TH & GOAL
OPP 30
+48
90.9%
Dylan Lynch 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SACDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 1:2210% → 9%
Q1 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
89.6%
Ezra Moleni run for 9 yds to the SAC 39Similar
Q1 2:08
2ND & 1
OWN 39
+2
89.3%
Ezra Moleni run for 2 yds to the SAC 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
89.5%
Carson Conklin pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:08
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
89.5%
Carson Conklin pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:08
3RD & 10
OWN 41
0
89.6%
Carson Conklin pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:46
4TH & 10
OWN 41
0
89.7%
Cal McGough punt for 39 yds, downed at the FRES 20Similar
Q1 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
91.1%
Sacramento State Penalty, Defensive Holding (Ben Ahio) to the FRES 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 11TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 2:5791% → 95%
Q1 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
91.1%
Malik Sherrod run for no gain to the FRES 30Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+21
91.1%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Mac Dalena for 21 yds to the SAC 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-2
91.5%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Mac Dalena for a loss of 2 yards to the FRES 49Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 49
+2
91.3%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Raylen Sharpe for 2 yds to the SAC 49Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 49
+23
91.2%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Jalen Moss for 23 yds to the SAC 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+19
91.5%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Jalen Moss for 19 yds to the SAC 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
91.5%
Malik Sherrod run for 5 yds to the SAC 2Similar
Q2 12:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
95.0%
Malik Sherrod run for 2 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SACDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:336% → 5%
Q2 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
94.4%
Elijah Tau-Tolliver run for a loss of 1 yard to the SAC 24Similar
Q2 11:35
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
94.4%
Carson Conklin pass complete to Elijah Tau-Tolliver for no gain to the SAC 24Similar
Q2 11:35
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
94.5%
Carson Conklin pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:16
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
94.6%
Cal McGough punt for 48 yds, downed at the FRES 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 13INT
3 plays · 7 yds · 0:4495% → 95%
Q2 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
95.2%
Elijah Gilliam run for 7 yds to the FRES 35Similar
Q2 11:16
2ND & 3
OWN 35
0
95.2%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:32
3RD & 3
OWN 35
0
95.4%
Mikey Keene pass intercepted Eian Moore return for no gain to the FRES 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SACDrive 14DOWNS
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:026% → 6%
Q2 10:32
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
94.0%
Carson Conklin pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:32
2ND & 10
OPP 42
-10
94.2%
Sacramento State Penalty, Offensive Holding (Coleman Kuntz) to the FRES 46Similar
Q2 10:32
2ND & 14
OPP 46
+4
94.5%
Carson Conklin pass complete to Elijah Tau-Tolliver for 4 yds to the FRES 42Similar
Q2 10:32
3RD & 10
OPP 42
+9
94.3%
Carson Conklin pass complete to Danny Scudero for 9 yds to the FRES 33Similar
Q2 9:30
4TH & 1
OPP 33
-1
94.3%
Ezra Moleni run for a loss of 1 yard to the FRES 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 2:5496% → 96%
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-10
95.7%
Fresno State Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the FRES 26Similar
Q2 9:30
1ST & 18
OWN 26
+4
95.6%
Malik Sherrod run for 4 yds to the FRES 30Similar
Q2 9:30
2ND & 14
OWN 30
0
95.6%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:30
3RD & 14
OWN 30
+21
95.4%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Malik Sherrod for 21 yds to the SAC 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
95.9%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:30
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+2
95.8%
Malik Sherrod run for 2 yds to the SAC 47Similar
Q2 7:09
3RD & 8
OPP 47
0
95.7%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:36
4TH & 8
OPP 47
0
95.6%
Clay Lawrence punt for 47 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SACDrive 16TD
2 plays · 80 yds · 0:435% → 10%
Q2 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
95.1%
Elijah Tau-Tolliver run for 2 yds to the SAC 22Similar
Q2 5:53
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+78
90.3%
Kaiden Bennett pass complete to Jared Gipson for 78 yds for a TD (Zach Schreiner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:2991% → 91%
Q2 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
90.6%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:53
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
90.6%
Elijah Gilliam run for 5 yds to the FRES 30Similar
Q2 5:53
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+3
90.4%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Elijah Gilliam for 3 yds to the FRES 33Similar
Q2 4:24
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
90.7%
Clay Lawrence punt for 46 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SACDrive 18FUMBLE
6 plays · 72 yds · 2:239% → 11%
Q2 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+15
90.8%
Kaiden Bennett pass complete to Danny Scudero for 15 yds to the SAC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
90.4%
Kaiden Bennett run for 11 yds to the SAC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
90.1%
Elijah Tau-Tolliver run for 4 yds to the FRES 49Similar
Q2 2:07
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+30
90.0%
Kaiden Bennett pass complete to Anderson Grover for 30 yds to the FRES 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:01
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+12
89.3%
Elijah Tau-Tolliver run for 12 yds to the FRES 5 Elijah Tau-Tolliver fumbled, recovered by FRES Cam LockridgeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 19INT
4 plays · 15 yds · 0:3193% → 93%
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+9
93.2%
Malik Sherrod run for 9 yds to the FRES 14Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 1
OWN 14
+6
92.9%
Malik Sherrod run for 6 yds to the FRES 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-13
92.8%
Mikey Keene pass intercepted Will Leota return for 13 yds to the FRES 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SACDrive 20INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:2011% → 12%
Q2 1:29
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
88.8%
Kaiden Bennett pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:09
2ND & 10
OPP 13
-14
88.4%
Kaiden Bennett pass intercepted Camryn Bracha return for 14 yds to the FRES 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 21END OF HALF
2 plays · 2 yds · 1:0993% → 92%
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-1
93.1%
Malik Sherrod run for a loss of 1 yard to the FRES 13Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 11
OWN 13
+3
92.4%
Elijah Gilliam run for 3 yds to the FRES 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SACDrive 22TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:358% → 16%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
91.7%
Carson Conklin pass complete to Coleman Kuntz for 15 yds to the SAC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+10
91.2%
Carson Conklin pass complete to Jared Gipson for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+2
90.7%
Ezra Moleni run for 2 yds to the FRES 48Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+17
90.7%
Carson Conklin pass complete to Coleman Kuntz for 17 yds to the FRES 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+17
90.3%
Carson Conklin pass complete to Danny Scudero for 17 yds to the FRES 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
90.1%
Elijah Tau-Tolliver run for 1 yd to the FRES 13Similar
Q3 12:25
2ND & 9
OPP 13
+13
84.2%
Carson Conklin pass complete to Ezra Moleni for 13 yds for a TD (Zach Schreiner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:2988% → 87%
Q3 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
87.8%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:18
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+3
87.7%
Malik Sherrod run for 3 yds to the FRES 24Similar
Q3 12:18
3RD & 7
OWN 24
+4
87.2%
Mikey Keene run for 4 yds to the FRES 28Similar
Q3 10:49
4TH & 3
OWN 28
0
86.6%
Clay Lawrence punt for 30 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SACDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:0414% → 14%
Q3 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
85.9%
Carson Conklin pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:49
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
86.1%
Carson Conklin pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:49
3RD & 10
OWN 42
+5
86.7%
Carson Conklin run for 5 yds to the SAC 47Similar
Q3 9:45
4TH & 5
OWN 47
0
86.5%
Cal McGough punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Jalen Moss at the FRES 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 25TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 6:1388% → 95%
Q3 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
87.5%
Malik Sherrod run for no gain to the FRES 25Similar
Q3 9:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
87.3%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Malik Sherrod for 5 yds to the FRES 30Similar
Q3 9:45
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+11
87.1%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Jalen Moss for 11 yds to the FRES 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
88.6%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Jalen Moss for 7 yds to the FRES 48Similar
Q3 9:45
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+2
88.7%
Malik Sherrod run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 6:44
3RD & 1
50
+2
87.9%
Elijah Gilliam run for 2 yds to the SAC 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:44
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
88.6%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Merhauti Xepera for 3 yds to the SAC 45Similar
Q3 6:44
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+5
88.5%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Nathan Acevedo for 5 yds to the SAC 40Similar
Q3 6:44
3RD & 2
OPP 40
+15
88.0%
KEENE, Mikey pass deep up the middle incomplete intended for DALENA, Mac thrown to the SAC5. PENALTY SAC Pass Interference on VEDDER, Zelmar enforced 15 yards to the SAC25 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 5:13
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+18
89.7%
Mac Dalena run for 18 yds to the SAC 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
89.5%
Malik Sherrod run for 6 yds to the SAC 1Similar
Q3 5:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
89.5%
Malik Sherrod run for no gain to the SAC 1Similar
Q3 5:12
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
89.0%
Malik Sherrod run for no gain to the SAC 1Similar
Q3 3:32
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
94.7%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Tyler Mello for 1 yd for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SACDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:327% → 7%
Q3 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-1
92.6%
Elijah Tau-Tolliver run for a loss of 1 yard to the SAC 10Similar
Q3 3:08
2ND & 11
OWN 10
0
92.9%
Carson Conklin pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:08
3RD & 11
OWN 10
0
93.0%
Carson Conklin pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:36
4TH & 11
OWN 10
+1
93.4%
Cal McGough punt for 41 yds , Jalen Moss returns for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 27TD
4 plays · 50 yds · 1:3196% → 99%
Q3 2:36
1ST & 10
50
+41
95.8%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Mac Dalena for 41 yds to the SAC 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
95.6%
Johnathan Arceneaux run for 3 yds to the SAC 6Similar
Q3 2:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
95.5%
Joshua Wood run for 5 yds to the SAC 1Similar
Q3 1:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.1%
Malik Sherrod run for 1 yd for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SACDrive 28TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 4:222% → 7%
Q3 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.5%
Carson Conklin pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:05
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
98.5%
Carson Conklin pass complete to Danny Scudero for no gain to the SAC 25Similar
Q3 1:05
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+10
98.6%
CONKLIN, Carson pass short up the middle incomplete intended for GIPSON, Jared thrown to the SAC30. PENALTY FST Holding on LANGLEY, Malachi enforced 10 yards from the SAC25 to the SAC35 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
98.4%
Carson Conklin pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:15
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+9
98.6%
Curron Borders run for 9 yds to the SAC 44Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+26
98.6%
Elijah Tau-Tolliver run for 26 yds to the FRES 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:44
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
98.4%
Carson Conklin pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:44
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+11
98.5%
Carson Conklin pass complete to Jared Gipson for 11 yds to the FRES 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:44
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
98.4%
Carson Conklin pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:44
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+8
98.5%
Carson Conklin pass complete to Curron Borders for 8 yds to the FRES 11Similar
Q4 14:44
3RD & 2
OPP 11
+4
98.5%
Ezra Moleni run for 4 yds to the FRES 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
98.6%
Carson Conklin pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
98.6%
Curron Borders run for no gain to the FRES 7Similar
Q4 12:43
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
98.7%
CONKLIN, Carson pass short up the middle incomplete intended for SCUDERO, Danny broken up by BAUMGARTNER, Kavika at the FST5. PENALTY Before the snap, FST Illegal Substitution enforced half the distance from the goal, 4 yards from the FST7 to the FST3. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 11:43
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
93.2%
Carson Conklin pass complete to Austin Jarrard for 3 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 29TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 3:3798% → 100%
Q4 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
98.0%
Malik Sherrod run for 3 yds to the FRES 28Similar
Q4 11:43
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+10
98.0%
Nathan Acevedo run for 10 yds to the FRES 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
98.2%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Raylen Sharpe for 1 yd to the FRES 39Similar
Q4 9:58
2ND & 9
OWN 39
-1
98.3%
Malik Sherrod run for a loss of 1 yard to the FRES 38Similar
Q4 9:13
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+14
98.2%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Jalen Moss for 14 yds to the SAC 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:13
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+38
98.3%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Mac Dalena for 38 yds to the SAC 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
99.6%
Joshua Wood run for 10 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SACDrive 30TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 1:151% → 5%
Q4 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
99.1%
Carson Conklin pass complete to Jared Gipson for 8 yds to the SAC 33Similar
Q4 8:06
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+31
99.1%
Carson Conklin pass complete to Jared Gipson for 31 yds to the FRES 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:51
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+36
95.1%
Carson Conklin pass complete to Anderson Grover for 36 yds for a TD (Zach Schreiner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 31MISSED FG
15 plays · 47 yds · 5:0198% → 99%
Q4 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
98.4%
Elijah Gilliam run for 7 yds to the FRES 32Similar
Q4 6:17
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+5
98.5%
Elijah Gilliam run for 5 yds to the FRES 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
98.6%
Elijah Gilliam run for 3 yds to the FRES 40Similar
Q4 4:57
2ND & 7
OWN 40
0
98.8%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:57
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+14
98.7%
Mikey Keene run for 14 yds to the SAC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:57
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
98.8%
Elijah Gilliam run for 2 yds to the SAC 44Similar
Q4 4:57
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+6
98.8%
Elijah Gilliam run for 6 yds to the SAC 38Similar
Q4 4:57
3RD & 2
OPP 38
+3
98.6%
Elijah Gilliam run for 3 yds to the SAC 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:07
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+2
99.3%
Elijah Gilliam run for 2 yds to the SAC 30Similar
Q4 2:02
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
99.3%
Elijah Gilliam run for 3 yds to the SAC 32Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 5
OPP 30
+2
99.3%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Elijah Gilliam for 2 yds to the SAC 28Similar
Q4 1:50
4TH & 3
OPP 28
+46
99.3%
Dylan Lynch 46 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SACDrive 32DOWNS
8 plays · 33 yds · 1:363% → 3%
Q4 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+15
97.4%
Carson Conklin pass complete to Danny Scudero for 15 yds to the SAC 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
97.5%
Carson Conklin pass complete to Coleman Kuntz for 4 yds to the SAC 47Similar
Q4 1:39
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+2
97.4%
Carson Conklin run for 2 yds to the SAC 49Similar
Q4 1:39
3RD & 4
OWN 49
+7
97.4%
Carson Conklin pass complete to Curron Borders for 7 yds to the FRES 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
97.2%
Carson Conklin pass complete to Curron Borders for 5 yds to the FRES 39Similar
Q4 0:43
2ND & 5
OPP 39
0
96.9%
Carson Conklin pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:17
3RD & 5
OPP 39
0
97.2%
Carson Conklin pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:09
4TH & 5
OPP 39
0
97.4%
Carson Conklin pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 33END OF GAME
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
99.4%
(00:09) Kneel down by KEENE, Mikey at FST39 (team loss of 0).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 12:25
Carson Conklin pass complete to Ezra Moleni for 13 yds for a TD (Zach Schreiner KICK)
-5.9
TD · Q3 3:32
Mikey Keene pass complete to Tyler Mello for 1 yd for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)
+5.7
TD · Q4 11:43
Carson Conklin pass complete to Austin Jarrard for 3 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
-5.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com