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ETAM

East Texas A&M 14 at San Diego State 45

SDSU
2024 · Week 1 · Aug 31, 2024 · Snapdragon Stadium
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Win probability · SDSU
modelSDSU aheadETAM aheadconfidence bandkey playSDSU scoreETAM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 5:55 · Mitchell McGarry punt for 42 yds , Mikey Welsh returns for no gain to the SDSU 21
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 22Pregame prior+18.1Home team on offense−0.3Score differential−0.6Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.4Blowout margin+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:59: EJ Oakmon run for 1 yd for a TD (Andy Gallegos PAT MISSED) — ETAM win probability +13.9 pts (now 46%) (top driver: ETAM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 11:36: Marquez Cooper run for 47 yds for a TD (Nick Lopez KICK) — SDSU win probability +11.1 pts (now 72%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 10:47: Tano Letuli 0 Yd Fumble Return (Gabriel Plascencia PAT failed) — SDSU win probability +10.7 pts (now 80%) (top driver: ETAM has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 6:35: Louis Brown IV 44 Yd pass from Danny O'Neil (Michael Harrison Run for Two-Point Conversion) — SDSU win probability +9.4 pts (now 95%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 13:48: JD Coffey III 45 Yd Interception Return (Nick Lopez Kick) — SDSU win probability +3.9 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ETAM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SDSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 10ETAM made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 13:57SDSU 4th & 19 at SDSU 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.0%−0.2
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:30ETAM 4th & 3 at SDSU 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 49.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    49.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    49.4%−0.1
    66% to make
    Punt
    48.9%−0.6
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:21SDSU 4th & 20 at SDSU 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.2%−0.5
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:13SDSU 4th & 20 at SDSU 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.2%−0.5
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.7%
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:55ETAM 4th & 10 at ETAM 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.2%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.6%
    average punt
  6. Q1 3:29SDSU 4th & 1 at ETAM 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 52.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    52.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    51.2%−1.1
    27% to make
    Punt
    51.6%−0.7
    average punt
  7. Q1 1:55SDSU 4th & 2 at ETAM 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 52.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    52.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    52.2%−0.5
    47% to make
    Punt
    52.0%−0.8
    average punt
  8. Q1 0:28SDSU 4th & 12 at ETAM 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 52.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.6%−0.4
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    52.0%
    54% to make
    Punt
    51.5%−0.5
    average punt
  9. Q2 8:03ETAM 4th & 1 at ETAM 21, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 42.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.0%−1.1
    average punt
  10. Q2 5:07SDSU 4th & 2 at ETAM 25, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 57.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    57.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    56.6%−1.0
    66% to make
    Punt
    51.9%−5.8
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:00SDSU 4th & 20 at ETAM 30, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 46.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.7%−3.1
    10% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.8%
    56% to make
    Punt
    44.7%−1.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 13:30ETAM 4th & 8 at ETAM 29, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.3%−1.2
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.5%
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:19ETAM 4th & 22 at ETAM 23, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.4%−4.6
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.0%
    average punt
  14. Q3 5:03ETAM 4th & 1 at SDSU 48, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.8%−1.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:25ETAM 4th & 8 at ETAM 38, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.4%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.5%
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:40ETAM 4th & 15 at ETAM 20, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:15SDSU 4th & 9 at ETAM 39, up 31
    Close callWent for it · 100.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    100.0%
    36% to make
    Punt
    99.9%−0.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 0:15SDSU 4th & 9 at ETAM 39, up 31
    Close callWent for it · 100.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    100.0%
    36% to make
    Punt
    99.9%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SDSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 5ETAM made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 0:59ETAM Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    53.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 11:36SDSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 10:47SDSU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    75.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 6:35SDSU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    86.2%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    86.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 13:48SDSU Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.4%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.4%
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 6:57SDSU Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SDSUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -9 yds · 0:2671% → 71%
Q1 14:23
1ST & 20
OWN 34
+6
71.2%
Marquez Cooper run for 6 yds to the SDSU 40Similar
Q1 14:14
2ND & 14
OWN 40
0
71.1%
Danny O'Neil pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:09
3RD & 19
OWN 35
0
71.1%
Danny O'Neil pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:57
4TH & 19
OWN 35
+14
71.0%
Tyler Pastula punt for 37 yds for a 1ST down , Nick Johnson returns for 14 yds to the SDSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ETAMDrive 2DOWNS
7 plays · 18 yds · 3:1329% → 30%
Q1 13:43
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
70.9%
Eric Rodriguez pass complete to Jared WilsonSimilar
Q1 13:18
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+5
70.8%
BK Jackson run for 5 yds to the SDSU 34Similar
Q1 12:56
3RD & 1
OPP 34
+2
70.7%
Eric Rodriguez run for 2 yds to the SDSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:21
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
70.5%
BK Jackson run for 2 yds to the SDSU 30Similar
Q1 11:44
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+6
70.3%
JaiSean McMillian run for 6 yds to the SDSU 24Similar
Q1 11:09
3RD & 2
OPP 24
+1
70.2%
Eric Rodriguez run for 1 yd to the SDSU 25Similar
Q1 10:30
4TH & 3
OPP 25
0
70.3%
Eric Rodriguez pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 2:1071% → 70%
Q1 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
70.5%
Marquez Cooper run for 10 yds to the SDSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:56
1ST & 15
OWN 30
+1
70.4%
Marquez Cooper run for 1 yd to the SDSU 31Similar
Q1 9:29
2ND & 14
OWN 31
-3
70.3%
Danny O'Neil sacked by Lavon Williams for a loss of 3 yards to the SDSU 28Similar
Q1 9:00
3RD & 17
OWN 28
-3
69.9%
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Marquez CooperSimilar
Q1 8:21
4TH & 20
OWN 25
0
69.6%
Tyler Pastula punt for 52 ydsSimilar
Q1 8:13
4TH & 20
OWN 25
0
69.5%
Tyler Pastula punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Nick Johnson at the TAMC 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ETAMDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 2:0531% → 30%
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
69.5%
EJ Oakmon run for no gain to the TAMC 42Similar
Q1 7:16
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+2
69.3%
Eric Rodriguez run for 2 yds to the TAMC 40Similar
Q1 6:40
3RD & 12
OWN 40
+2
69.7%
Eric Rodriguez pass complete to BK JacksonSimilar
Q1 5:55
4TH & 10
OWN 42
0
69.8%
Mitchell McGarry punt for 42 yds , Mikey Welsh returns for no gain to the SDSU 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 5FG
18 plays · 48 yds · 5:1970% → 69%
Q1 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
69.5%
Danny O'Neil pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:41
2ND & 10
OWN 21
0
69.4%
Marquez Cooper run for no gain to the SDSU 21Similar
Q1 5:15
3RD & 10
OWN 21
0
68.9%
Danny O'Neil pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
69.7%
Marquez Cooper run for 5 yds to the SDSU 41Similar
Q1 4:50
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+6
70.1%
Marquez Cooper run for 6 yds to the SDSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
70.1%
Danny O'Neil pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:26
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
70.0%
Danny O'Neil pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:19
2ND & 5
OPP 48
0
70.3%
Marquez Cooper run for no gain to the TAMC 48Similar
Q1 3:50
3RD & 5
OPP 48
+4
70.0%
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Marquez CooperSimilar
Q1 3:29
4TH & 1
OPP 44
+2
69.5%
Marquez Cooper run for 2 yds to the TAMC 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:44
1ST & 15
OPP 47
+4
69.7%
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Ja'Shaun PokeSimilar
Q1 2:37
2ND & 11
OPP 43
0
70.1%
Danny O'Neil pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:22
3RD & 11
OPP 43
+9
69.4%
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Ja'Shaun PokeSimilar
Q1 1:55
4TH & 2
OPP 34
+5
69.4%
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Ja'Shaun Poke for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:32
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+6
70.5%
Ja'Shaun Poke run for 6 yds to the TAMC 35Similar
Q1 0:51
2ND & 16
OPP 35
+4
69.7%
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Jude WolfeSimilar
Q1 0:34
3RD & 12
OPP 31
0
69.3%
Danny O'Neil pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:28
4TH & 12
OPP 31
+50
69.1%
Gabriel Plascencia 50 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ETAMDrive 6FUMBLE
9 plays · 45 yds · 2:4330% → 32%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+29
70.2%
Eric Rodriguez pass complete to Sean Sallis for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
68.8%
JaiSean McMillian run for 5 yds to the SDSU 40Similar
Q2 14:21
1ST & 15
50
+7
69.3%
Eric Rodriguez pass complete to Christian JourdainSimilar
Q2 13:42
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+5
68.6%
Eric Rodriguez run for 5 yds to the SDSU 38Similar
Q2 13:02
3RD & 3
OPP 38
+8
68.6%
BK Jackson run for 8 yds to the SDSU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:24
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
67.9%
Eric Rodriguez pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:17
2ND & 10
OPP 30
0
67.9%
Eric Rodriguez pass complete to Jared Wilson Jared Wilson fumbled, recovered by TAMC Krishna ClaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:3970% → 69%
Q2 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+7
70.0%
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Baylin BrooksSimilar
Q2 11:50
2ND & 3
OWN 36
+4
70.9%
Marquez Cooper run for 4 yds to the SDSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
70.8%
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Ja'Shaun PokeSimilar
Q2 11:07
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+7
70.4%
Marquez Cooper run for 7 yds to the SDSU 48Similar
Q2 10:40
3RD & 2
OWN 48
+25
70.7%
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Baylin Brooks for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:25
3RD & 12
OWN 38
0
69.3%
Danny O'Neil pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ETAMDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 2:0330% → 28%
Q2 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-1
70.0%
Eric Rodriguez sacked for a loss of 1 yard to the TAMC 11Similar
Q2 9:17
2ND & 11
OWN 11
+1
69.8%
Eric Rodriguez pass complete to BK JacksonSimilar
Q2 8:40
3RD & 10
OWN 12
+9
70.4%
Eric Rodriguez pass complete to Jaden ProctorSimilar
Q2 8:03
4TH & 1
OWN 21
0
72.3%
Mitchell McGarry punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Mikey Welsh at the SDSU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 9DOWNS
11 plays · 42 yds · 2:4871% → 72%
Q2 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+12
71.0%
Marquez Cooper run for 12 yds to the SDSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
72.1%
Danny O'Neil pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:28
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+1
71.5%
Marquez Cooper run for 1 yd to the SDSU 46Similar
Q2 7:08
3RD & 9
OWN 46
0
70.8%
Danny O'Neil pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:03
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
72.6%
Danny O'Neil pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:56
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+6
72.4%
Marquez Cooper run for 6 yds to the TAMC 41Similar
Q2 6:28
3RD & 4
OPP 41
+8
72.4%
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Louis Brown IV for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:58
1ST & 15
OPP 38
+1
71.9%
Marquez Cooper run for 1 yd to the TAMC 37Similar
Q2 5:33
2ND & 14
OPP 37
0
71.6%
Danny O'Neil pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:25
3RD & 14
OPP 37
+12
71.1%
Marquez Cooper run for 12 yds to the TAMC 25Similar
Q2 5:07
4TH & 2
OPP 25
0
71.5%
Marquez Cooper run for no gain to the TAMC 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ETAMDrive 10TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:5429% → 46%
Q2 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
71.4%
Ron Peace pass complete to Tyler DanielsSimilar
Q2 4:33
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+9
70.9%
Ron Peace run for 9 yds to the TAMC 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
70.1%
EJ Oakmon run for 3 yds to the TAMC 42Similar
Q2 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
68.9%
EJ Oakmon run for no gain to the SDSU 43Similar
Q2 2:50
2ND & 10
OPP 43
0
68.8%
Ron Peace pass complete to Jaden ProctorSimilar
Q2 2:09
3RD & 10
OPP 43
0
70.3%
Ron Peace pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:02
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+6
68.3%
Ron Peace run for 6 yds to the SDSU 22Similar
Q2 1:54
2ND & 4
OPP 22
+6
67.7%
EJ Oakmon run for 6 yds to the SDSU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:38
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+7
67.6%
EJ Oakmon run for 7 yds to the SDSU 9Similar
Q2 1:06
2ND & 3
OPP 9
+8
67.6%
EJ Oakmon run for 8 yds to the SDSU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
53.7%
EJ Oakmon run for 1 yd for a TD (Andy Gallegos PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 11MISSED FG
11 plays · 59 yds · 0:5460% → 55%
Q2 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+6
60.2%
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Ja'Shaun PokeSimilar
Q2 0:44
2ND & 4
OWN 17
+39
60.2%
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Louis Brown IV for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+9
63.8%
Danny O'Neil run for 9 yds to the TAMC 35Similar
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
65.5%
Marquez Cooper run for 5 yds to the TAMC 15Similar
Q2 0:28
2ND & 5
OPP 15
+1
64.9%
Marquez Cooper run for 1 yd to the TAMC 16Similar
Q2 0:19
3RD & 6
OPP 16
-14
63.0%
Danny O'Neil sacked by Leon Young for a loss of 14 yards to the TAMC 30Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 20
OPP 30
+48
55.4%
Gabriel Plascencia 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ETAMDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 1:2142% → 41%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 20
OWN 16
0
57.8%
Eric Rodriguez pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
57.2%
BK Jackson run for 3 yds to the TAMC 30Similar
Q3 14:13
2ND & 7
OWN 30
-1
56.5%
Eric Rodriguez sacked by Marlem Louis for a loss of 1 yard to the TAMC 29Similar
Q3 13:36
3RD & 8
OWN 29
0
57.9%
Eric Rodriguez pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:30
4TH & 8
OWN 29
0
59.1%
Mitchell McGarry punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Jordan Napier at the SDSU 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 13TD
6 plays · 66 yds · 1:4859% → 72%
Q3 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
58.8%
Marquez Cooper run for 2 yds to the SDSU 36Similar
Q3 12:58
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+4
58.8%
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Jude WolfeSimilar
Q3 12:33
3RD & 4
OWN 40
+5
59.4%
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Ja'Shaun Poke for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
60.4%
Marquez Cooper run for 4 yds to the SDSU 49Similar
Q3 11:54
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+4
60.7%
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Michael HarrisonSimilar
Q3 11:36
3RD & 2
OPP 47
+47
71.8%
Marquez Cooper run for 47 yds for a TD (Nick Lopez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ETAMDrive 14FUMBLE RETURN TD
3 plays · -25 yds · 0:3331% → 20%
Q3 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
69.4%
JaiSean McMillian run for 2 yds to the TAMC 27Similar
Q3 10:47
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
80.2%
Tano Letuli 0 Yd Fumble Return (Gabriel Plascencia PAT failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ETAMDrive 15PUNT
9 plays · -1 yds · 3:0920% → 15%
Q3 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
80.4%
JaiSean McMillian run for 6 yds to the TAMC 30Similar
Q3 9:59
2ND & 4
OWN 30
+3
80.2%
JaiSean McMillian run for 3 yds to the TAMC 33Similar
Q3 9:41
3RD & 1
OWN 33
+2
80.7%
JaiSean McMillian run for 2 yds to the TAMC 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:52
1ST & 20
OWN 25
+3
81.3%
Eric Rodriguez pass complete to Tyler DanielsSimilar
Q3 8:08
2ND & 17
OWN 28
0
81.7%
Eric Rodriguez pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:00
3RD & 17
OWN 28
-5
83.9%
Eric Rodriguez sacked by Ryan Henderson for a loss of 5 yards to the TAMC 23Similar
Q3 7:19
4TH & 22
OWN 23
0
84.7%
Mitchell McGarry punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SDSU 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 16TD
3 plays · 62 yds · 0:3585% → 95%
Q3 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
84.8%
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Michael HarrisonSimilar
Q3 6:57
2ND & 1
OWN 47
+9
85.3%
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Michael Harrison for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:35
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+44
94.7%
Louis Brown IV 44 Yd pass from Danny O'Neil (Michael Harrison Run for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ETAMDrive 17TD
12 plays · 65 yds · 4:144% → 3%
Q3 6:31
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
95.7%
Eric Rodriguez pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
95.7%
Eric Rodriguez pass complete to Dayeton SweetingSimilar
Q3 5:48
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+5
95.8%
EJ Oakmon run for 5 yds to the SDSU 48Similar
Q3 5:10
3RD & 1
OPP 48
0
96.0%
Eric Rodriguez pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:03
4TH & 1
OPP 48
+3
96.5%
JaiSean McMillian run for 3 yds to the SDSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:28
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+8
96.6%
Eric Rodriguez pass complete to Dayan BilboSimilar
Q3 3:31
2ND & 12
OPP 47
+8
96.7%
Eric Rodriguez pass complete to Tyler DanielsSimilar
Q3 2:50
3RD & 4
OPP 39
+27
96.9%
Eric Rodriguez pass complete to Dayan Bilbo for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:22
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
96.5%
Eric Rodriguez pass intercepted, touchback.Similar
Q3 2:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
97.0%
Drew Allison 6 Yd pass from Eric Rodriguez (Eric Rodriguez Pass to JaiSean McMillian for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 18TD
7 plays · 95 yds · 2:0998% → 96%
Q3 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+38
98.4%
Marquez Cooper run for 38 yds to the SDSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+12
98.6%
Marquez Cooper run for 12 yds to the TAMC 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
98.7%
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Jude WolfeSimilar
Q3 1:01
2ND & 4
OPP 39
0
98.7%
Danny O'Neil pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:37
3RD & 4
OPP 39
+29
98.7%
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Jordan Napier for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
98.8%
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Jordan NapierSimilar
Q4 14:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
96.0%
Marquez Cooper 7 Yd Run (Nick Lopez Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ETAMDrive 19INT TD
3 plays · 1 yds · 0:355% → 1%
Q4 14:23
1ST & 20
OWN 15
-4
94.7%
Eric Rodriguez pass complete to Braxton GarmonSimilar
Q4 13:48
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-45
98.6%
JD Coffey III 45 Yd Interception Return (Nick Lopez Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ETAMDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 2:161% → 1%
Q4 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
98.6%
Ron Peace run for 6 yds to the TAMC 31Similar
Q4 13:10
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
98.6%
Ron Peace pass complete to Jared Wilson for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
98.6%
BK Jackson run for no gain to the TAMC 36Similar
Q4 12:02
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+2
98.7%
Ron Peace pass complete to Sean SallisSimilar
Q4 11:35
3RD & 8
OWN 38
0
98.7%
Ron Peace pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:25
4TH & 8
OWN 38
+3
98.8%
Mitchell McGarry punt for 44 yds , Mikey Welsh returns for 3 yds to the SDSU 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 21TD
7 plays · 79 yds · 4:1899% → 100%
Q4 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+28
99.2%
Danny O'Neil run for 28 yds to the SDSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
99.4%
Marquez Cooper run for 4 yds to the TAMC 47Similar
Q4 9:48
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+2
99.4%
Danny O'Neil run for 2 yds to the TAMC 49Similar
Q4 9:00
3RD & 8
OPP 49
+9
99.4%
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Marquez Cooper for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:29
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
99.5%
Marquez Cooper run for 4 yds to the TAMC 36Similar
Q4 7:42
2ND & 6
OPP 36
+28
99.5%
Marquez Cooper run for 28 yds to the TAMC 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
99.9%
Jordan Napier 8 Yd pass from Danny O'Neil (Nick Lopez Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ETAMDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 2:100% → 0%
Q4 6:50
1ST & 15
OWN 20
-6
99.9%
Ron Peace sacked by Brady Anderson for a loss of 6 yards to the TAMC 14Similar
Q4 6:08
2ND & 21
OWN 14
+3
99.9%
Ron Peace run for 3 yds to the TAMC 17Similar
Q4 5:21
3RD & 18
OWN 17
+3
99.9%
Ron Peace run for 3 yds to the TAMC 20Similar
Q4 4:40
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
99.9%
Mitchell McGarry punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Mekhi Shaw at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 23DOWNS
8 plays · 14 yds · 4:11100% → 100%
Q4 4:26
1ST & 10
50
+1
99.9%
Jaylon Armstead run for 1 yd to the TAMC 49Similar
Q4 3:49
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+2
99.9%
Jaylon Armstead run for 2 yds to the TAMC 47Similar
Q4 3:09
3RD & 7
OPP 47
+7
99.9%
Jaylon Armstead run for 7 yds to the TAMC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:25
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
100.0%
Jaylon Armstead run for no gain to the TAMC 40Similar
Q4 1:49
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+7
100.0%
Javance Tupou'ata-Johnson run for 7 yds to the TAMC 33Similar
Q4 0:56
3RD & 8
OPP 38
+1
100.0%
Jaylon Armstead run for 1 yd to the TAMC 39Similar
Q4 0:15
4TH & 9
OPP 39
+3
100.0%
Lucky Sutton run for 3 yds to the TAMC 36Similar
Q4 0:15
4TH & 9
OPP 39
+3
100.0%
Lucky Sutton run for 3 yds to the TAMC 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ETAMDrive 24END OF GAME
1 play · 2 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
100.0%
Darlington Frasch run for 2 yds to the TAMC 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:59
EJ Oakmon run for 1 yd for a TD (Andy Gallegos PAT MISSED)
-13.9
TD · Q3 11:36
Marquez Cooper run for 47 yds for a TD (Nick Lopez KICK)
+11.1
TD · Q3 10:47
Tano Letuli 0 Yd Fumble Return (Gabriel Plascencia PAT failed)
+10.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com