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NEV

Nevada 28 at Troy 26

TROY
2024 · Week 1 · Aug 31, 2024 · Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)
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Win probability · TROY
modelTROY aheadNEV aheadconfidence bandkey playTROY scoreNEV score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 10:55 · Robert Cole punt for 37 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+33.5+16.80−16.8−33.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 12Pregame prior+22.2Home team on offense+0.0Garbage-time factor−0.1Score differential−0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:25: Brendon Lewis pass complete to Jace Henry for 17 yds for a TD (Matthew Killam PAT MISSED) — NEV win probability +8.3 pts (now 26%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 13:55: Patrick Garwo III run for 1 yd for a TD (Brendon Lewis pass to Jaden Smith for Two-Point Conversion) — NEV win probability +16.2 pts (now 41%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 3:20: Patrick Garwo III run for 22 yds for a TD (Matthew Killam KICK) — NEV win probability +21.1 pts (now 58%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 12:56: Brendon Lewis pass complete to Marcus Bellon for 7 yds for a TD (Matthew Killam KICK) — NEV win probability +16.9 pts (now 80%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:21: Devonte Ross 16 Yd pass from Goose Crowder (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed) — TROY win probability +28.8 pts (now 39%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TROY made the numbers' call on 5 of 6NEV made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
  1. Q1 13:56TROY 4th & 5 at TROY 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.7%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:11NEV 4th & 4 at NEV 39, tied
    Close callPunted · 24.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:55TROY 4th & 9 at TROY 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.7%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:57NEV 4th & 6 at NEV 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.6%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00NEV 4th & 1 at TROY 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    23.3%−1.1
    47% to make
    Punt
    23.0%−1.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:03TROY 4th & 13 at TROY 41, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.3%−1.0
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:42NEV 4th & 19 at TROY 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 22.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.8%−1.3
    11% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    22.1%
    56% to make
    Punt
    21.2%−1.0
    average punt
  8. Q3 1:23TROY 4th & 7 at TROY 28, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.6%−1.6
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.2%
    average punt
  9. Q4 12:56TROY 4th & 2 at NEV 28, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    24.4%−1.7
    60% to make
    Punt
    18.9%−7.2
    average punt
  10. Q4 6:12TROY 4th & 1 at NEV 1, down 11
    Numbers favored go for it by 7.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 15.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.5%
    59% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    11.3%−7.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    6.8%−11.7
    average punt
  11. Q4 2:26NEV 4th & 6 at midfield, up 8
    Close callPunted · 92.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.8%−0.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TROY made the numbers' call on 3 of 3NEV made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 3:59TROY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 3:08TROY Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:25NEV Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    20.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 13:55NEV Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    30.7%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    30.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 3:20NEV Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 12:56NEV Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.3%−0.3
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 0:21TROY Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    13.7%−15.8
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    29.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TROYDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:5674% → 74%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
73.7%
Goose Crowder pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:45
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+5
73.7%
Goose Crowder run for 5 yds to the TROY 29Similar
Q1 14:05
3RD & 5
OWN 29
0
73.6%
Goose Crowder pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:56
4TH & 5
OWN 29
0
73.5%
Robert Cole punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:4127% → 27%
Q1 13:52
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
73.5%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Cortez Braham Jr. for no gain to the NEV 33Similar
Q1 13:27
2ND & 10
OWN 33
0
73.5%
Sean Dollars run for no gain to the NEV 33Similar
Q1 12:55
3RD & 10
OWN 33
+6
73.4%
Brendon Lewis run for 6 yds to the NEV 39Similar
Q1 12:11
4TH & 4
OWN 39
0
73.3%
Guy Gillespie punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Peyton Higgins at the TROY 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:1073% → 73%
Q1 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
73.2%
Gerald Green run for 4 yds to the TROY 21Similar
Q1 11:39
2ND & 6
OWN 21
-3
73.1%
Gerald Green run for a loss of 3 yards to the TROY 18Similar
Q1 11:01
3RD & 9
OWN 18
0
72.8%
Goose Crowder pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:55
4TH & 9
OWN 18
0
72.7%
Robert Cole punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:5327% → 28%
Q1 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
72.6%
Sean Dollars run for 2 yds to the NEV 47Similar
Q1 10:15
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+5
72.4%
Brendon Lewis run for 5 yds to the TROY 48Similar
Q1 9:34
3RD & 3
OPP 48
-3
72.3%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Sean Dollars for a loss of 3 yards to the NEV 49Similar
Q1 8:57
4TH & 6
OWN 49
+7
72.4%
Guy Gillespie punt for 42 yds , Peyton Higgins returns for 7 yds to the TROY 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 5TD
12 plays · 84 yds · 4:5373% → 76%
Q1 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+7
72.5%
Jordan Lovett run for 7 yds to the TROY 23Similar
Q1 8:29
2ND & 3
OWN 23
+5
72.5%
Jordan Lovett run for 5 yds to the TROY 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
72.3%
Goose Crowder pass complete to Ethan Conner for 7 yds to the TROY 35Similar
Q1 7:21
2ND & 3
OWN 35
+8
72.5%
Jordan Lovett run for 8 yds to the TROY 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
72.6%
Goose Crowder run for no gain to the TROY 43Similar
Q1 6:23
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+3
72.3%
Damien Taylor run for 3 yds to the TROY 46Similar
Q1 5:51
3RD & 7
OWN 46
+10
72.0%
Goose Crowder pass complete to Ethan Conner for 10 yds to the NEV 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:28
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
72.5%
Goose Crowder pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:23
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+1
72.4%
Goose Crowder pass complete to Jordan Lovett for 1 yd to the NEV 43Similar
Q1 4:45
3RD & 9
OPP 43
+18
72.0%
Goose Crowder pass complete to Devonte Ross for 18 yds to the NEV 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:59
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
75.6%
Damien Taylor run for 25 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 6DOWNS
9 plays · 39 yds · 3:5326% → 26%
Q1 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
74.4%
Brendon Lewis run for 3 yds to the NEV 30Similar
Q1 3:18
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+9
74.3%
Savion Red run for 9 yds to the NEV 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
74.0%
Brendon Lewis run for 7 yds to the NEV 46Similar
Q1 2:07
2ND & 3
OWN 46
+1
73.4%
Savion Red run for 1 yd to the NEV 47Similar
Q1 1:26
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+10
73.4%
Patrick Garwo III run for 10 yds to the TROY 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:46
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+8
73.1%
Patrick Garwo III run for 8 yds to the TROY 35Similar
Q1 0:11
2ND & 2
OPP 35
0
72.3%
Brendon Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:04
3RD & 2
OPP 35
+1
73.0%
Patrick Garwo III run for 1 yd to the TROY 34Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 34
0
73.7%
Brendon Lewis run for no gain to the TROY 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 7 yds · 2:5175% → 74%
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
74.8%
Goose Crowder run for no gain to the TROY 34Similar
Q2 14:15
2ND & 10
OWN 34
0
74.7%
Goose Crowder pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:09
3RD & 10
OWN 34
+10
74.3%
Goose Crowder run for 10 yds to the TROY 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
75.8%
Damien Taylor run for no gain to the TROY 44Similar
Q2 12:48
2ND & 10
OWN 44
0
75.6%
Goose Crowder pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:44
3RD & 10
OWN 44
-3
74.9%
Goose Crowder pass complete to Jordan Lovett for a loss of 3 yards to the TROY 41Similar
Q2 12:03
4TH & 13
OWN 41
0
74.1%
Robert Cole punt for 40 yds, downed at the NEV 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 8MISSED FG
11 plays · 51 yds · 6:1226% → 24%
Q2 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+8
74.5%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Jaden Smith for 8 yds to the NEV 27Similar
Q2 11:23
2ND & 2
OWN 27
+10
73.9%
Brendon Lewis run for 10 yds to the NEV 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
73.9%
Savion Red run for 5 yds to the NEV 42Similar
Q2 10:12
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+3
73.2%
Brendon Lewis run for 3 yds to the NEV 45Similar
Q2 9:35
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+3
73.4%
Patrick Garwo III run for 3 yds to the NEV 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+31
73.3%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Marcus Bellon for 31 yds to the TROY 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-10
71.8%
(08:15) RED, Savion rush to the left for a gain of 7 yards to the TRO14, out of bounds, clock 08:09. PENALTY NEV Holding on HAWKINS, Deston enforced 10 yards from the TRO21 to the TRO31 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 7:49
1ST & 20
OPP 31
+1
73.1%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Cortez Braham Jr. for 1 yd to the TROY 30Similar
Q2 7:07
2ND & 19
OPP 30
0
73.5%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Marcus Bellon for no gain to the TROY 30Similar
Q2 6:25
3RD & 19
OPP 30
0
74.9%
Brendon Lewis run for no gain to the TROY 30Similar
Q2 5:42
4TH & 19
OPP 30
+48
76.4%
Matthew Killam 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 9TD
5 plays · 70 yds · 2:3276% → 83%
Q2 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-2
76.2%
Gerald Green run for a loss of 2 yards to the TROY 28Similar
Q2 5:05
2ND & 12
OWN 28
+5
75.9%
Goose Crowder pass complete to Peyton Higgins for 5 yds to the TROY 33Similar
Q2 4:32
3RD & 7
OWN 33
+22
75.7%
Goose Crowder run for 12 yds to the NEV 45 for a 1ST down Nevada Penalty, Defensive Holding (Chad Brown) to the NEV 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:58
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+29
78.2%
Goose Crowder pass complete to Devonte Ross for 29 yds to the NEV 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:08
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
83.3%
Gerald Green run for 16 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 10TD
10 plays · 57 yds · 2:3519% → 26%
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
81.1%
Brendon Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:55
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+11
81.2%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Cortez Braham Jr. for 11 yds to the TROY 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
80.5%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Jace Henry for 7 yds to the TROY 39Similar
Q2 2:20
2ND & 3
OPP 39
-15
80.2%
(02:20) LEWIS, Brendon pass short to the left complete for 3 yards to HENRY, Jace caught at the TRO36 and advanced to the TRO36 (JACKSON, Brendan), clock 02:16. PENALTY NEV Illegal use of the hands on BOLLES, John enforced 15 yards from the TRO39 to the NEV46 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 1:59
2ND & 18
OWN 46
+25
82.4%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Jaden Smith for 25 yds to the TROY 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+7
79.4%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Jace Henry for 7 yds to the TROY 22Similar
Q2 1:26
2ND & 3
OPP 22
+2
79.5%
Sean Dollars run for 2 yds to the TROY 20Similar
Q2 0:51
3RD & 1
OPP 20
+3
82.1%
Patrick Garwo III run for 3 yds to the TROY 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
73.8%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Jace Henry for 17 yds for a TD (Matthew Killam PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 11END OF HALF
2 plays · 13 yds · 0:1480% → 80%
Q2 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+10
79.6%
Nevada Penalty, Defensive Holding (Mackavelli Malotumau) to the TROY 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-1
79.9%
(00:04) Kneel down by CROWDER, Goose at TRO26 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 12TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 1:0421% → 41%
Q3 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+69
78.8%
Savion Red run for 69 yds to the TROY 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
75.2%
Patrick Garwo III run for 5 yds to the TROY 1Similar
Q3 13:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
59.0%
Patrick Garwo III run for 1 yd for a TD (Brendon Lewis pass to Jaden Smith for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 13FG
13 plays · 69 yds · 6:2367% → 73%
Q3 13:47
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
66.6%
Gerald Green run for 3 yds to the TROY 22Similar
Q3 13:19
2ND & 7
OWN 22
0
66.5%
Goose Crowder pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:14
3RD & 7
OWN 22
+20
65.1%
Goose Crowder pass complete to Devonte Ross for 20 yds to the TROY 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+19
68.3%
Goose Crowder pass complete to Peyton Higgins for 19 yds to the NEV 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:11
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
69.1%
Goose Crowder pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:04
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+3
69.0%
Gerald Green run for 3 yds to the NEV 36Similar
Q3 11:25
3RD & 7
OPP 36
+8
68.5%
Gerald Green run for 8 yds to the NEV 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:56
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
69.8%
Goose Crowder run for 3 yds to the NEV 25Similar
Q3 10:10
2ND & 7
OPP 25
+7
69.7%
Goose Crowder pass complete to Devonte Ross for 7 yds to the NEV 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:37
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+10
69.7%
Goose Crowder pass complete to Devonte Ross for 10 yds to the NEV 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
69.6%
Damien Taylor run for no gain to the NEV 8Similar
Q3 8:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-4
69.5%
Goose Crowder run for a loss of 4 yards to the NEV 12Similar
Q3 7:24
3RD & GOAL
OPP 12
+30
72.9%
Scott Taylor Renfroe 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 14TD
7 plays · 79 yds · 3:5631% → 58%
Q3 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+26
69.0%
Savion Red run for 26 yds to the NEV 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
65.5%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Sean Dollars for 4 yds to the TROY 49Similar
Q3 6:14
2ND & 6
OPP 49
0
65.0%
Patrick Garwo III run for no gain to the TROY 49Similar
Q3 5:34
3RD & 6
OPP 49
+21
65.6%
AJ Bianco pass complete to Jaden Smith for 21 yds to the TROY 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+8
62.8%
Savion Red run for 8 yds to the TROY 20Similar
Q3 4:08
2ND & 2
OPP 20
-2
63.5%
Sean Dollars run for a loss of 2 yards to the TROY 22Similar
Q3 3:20
3RD & 4
OPP 22
+22
42.4%
Patrick Garwo III run for 22 yds for a TD (Matthew Killam KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:5649% → 45%
Q3 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
49.0%
Goose Crowder pass complete to Ethan Conner for 1 yd to the TROY 26Similar
Q3 2:44
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+4
48.5%
Goose Crowder pass complete to Landon Parker for 4 yds to the TROY 30Similar
Q3 2:10
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-2
47.5%
Goose Crowder run for a loss of 2 yards to the TROY 28Similar
Q3 1:23
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
44.8%
Robert Cole punt for 8 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 16TD
6 plays · 36 yds · 3:2060% → 80%
Q3 1:16
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
40.1%
Savion Red run for 5 yds to the TROY 31 Savion Red fumbled, recovered by NEV return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q3 0:34
2ND & 5
OPP 31
-6
37.8%
Caleb Ramseur run for a loss of 6 yards to the TROY 37Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 37
+16
39.5%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Cortez Braham Jr. for 16 yds to the TROY 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+12
36.8%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Jaden Smith for 12 yds to the TROY 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
36.8%
Savion Red run for 2 yds to the TROY 7Similar
Q4 12:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
19.9%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Marcus Bellon for 7 yds for a TD (Matthew Killam KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 17FG
15 plays · 74 yds · 6:4423% → 21%
Q4 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
23.4%
Goose Crowder pass complete to Devonte Ross for 3 yds to the TROY 28Similar
Q4 12:56
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
23.7%
Goose Crowder pass complete to Zeriah Beason for 6 yds to the TROY 34Similar
Q4 12:56
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+30
23.7%
Damien Taylor run for 30 yds to the NEV 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:56
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
27.2%
Goose Crowder pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:56
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+7
27.0%
Damien Taylor run for 7 yds to the NEV 29Similar
Q4 12:56
3RD & 3
OPP 29
-5
27.7%
Troy Penalty, Illegal Substitution (TEAM) to the NEV 34Similar
Q4 12:56
3RD & 8
OPP 34
+6
26.9%
Damien Taylor run for 6 yds to the NEV 28Similar
Q4 12:56
4TH & 2
OPP 28
+3
25.6%
Damien Taylor run for 3 yds to the NEV 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:56
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
29.5%
Goose Crowder pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:56
2ND & 10
OPP 25
-5
28.9%
Troy Penalty, Illegal Substitution (TEAM) to the NEV 30Similar
Q4 12:56
2ND & 15
OPP 30
+25
27.4%
Damien Taylor run for 25 yds to the NEV 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
29.5%
Damien Taylor run for no gain to the NEV 5Similar
Q4 12:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
29.5%
Gerald Green run for 4 yds to the NEV 1Similar
Q4 12:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
27.7%
Gerald Green run for no gain to the NEV 1Similar
Q4 6:12
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+19
20.7%
Scott Taylor Renfroe 19 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 25 yds · 3:4488% → 93%
Q4 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
12.4%
Savion Red run for 6 yds to the NEV 31Similar
Q4 5:27
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-3
11.2%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Jaden Smith for a loss of 3 yards to the NEV 28Similar
Q4 4:45
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+18
11.8%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Jaden Smith for 18 yds to the NEV 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
8.7%
Savion Red run for 6 yds to the TROY 48Similar
Q4 3:16
2ND & 4
OPP 48
-2
7.4%
Savion Red run for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 2:29
3RD & 6
50
0
6.2%
Brendon Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:26
4TH & 6
50
0
7.2%
Guy Gillespie punt for 25 yds, downed at the TROY 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 19TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 1:579% → 39%
Q4 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
9.2%
Gerald Green run for 4 yds to the TROY 29Similar
Q4 1:59
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
9.3%
Goose Crowder pass complete to Peyton Higgins for 5 yds to the TROY 34Similar
Q4 1:37
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
9.4%
Gerald Green run for 3 yds to the TROY 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+11
9.3%
Goose Crowder pass complete to Zeriah Beason for 11 yds to the TROY 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-1
10.1%
Goose Crowder sacked by Henry Ikahihifo and Kristopher Ross for a loss of 1 yard to the TROY 47Similar
Q4 1:14
2ND & 11
OWN 47
+5
7.4%
Goose Crowder run for 5 yds to the NEV 48Similar
Q4 0:53
3RD & 6
OPP 48
+9
7.5%
Goose Crowder pass complete to Peyton Higgins for 9 yds to the NEV 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+23
7.8%
Goose Crowder pass complete to Landon Parker for 23 yds to the NEV 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:21
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
38.8%
Devonte Ross 16 Yd pass from Goose Crowder (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 20END OF 4TH QUARTER
3 plays · 11 yds · 0:0493% → 94%
Q4 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+15
6.9%
Troy Penalty, Targeting on TAYLOR, Damien enforced (Damien Taylor) to the TROY 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:17
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-4
5.9%
(00:17) [SG] Kneel down by LEWIS, Brendon at TRO42 (team loss of 4), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:21
Devonte Ross 16 Yd pass from Goose Crowder (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)
+28.8
TD · Q3 3:20
Patrick Garwo III run for 22 yds for a TD (Matthew Killam KICK)
-21.1
TD · Q4 12:56
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Marcus Bellon for 7 yds for a TD (Matthew Killam KICK)
-16.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com