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BOIS

Boise State 56 at Georgia Southern 45

GASO
2024 · Week 1 · Aug 31, 2024 · Allen E. Paulson Stadium
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Win probability · GASO
modelGASO aheadBOIS aheadconfidence bandkey playGASO scoreBOIS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameFG+2.8GASO 26.5%Gavin Stewart 31 yd FG GOODAWAY 14 - HOME 9 · Q2 11:00
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 11:00 · Gavin Stewart 31 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+47.5+23.80−23.8−47.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 52Pregame prior−22.7Home team on offense−2.3Score differential−0.8Garbage-time factor−0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 6:48: Jalen White run for 1 yd for a TD (Gavin Stewart KICK) — GASO win probability +18.4 pts (now 53%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 1:07: Ashton Jeanty run for 1 yd for a TD (Maddux Madsen pass to Cameron Camper for Two-Point Conversion) — BOIS win probability +22.9 pts (now 80%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 13:30: JC French pass complete to Beau Johnson for 3 yds for a TD (Gavin Stewart KICK) — GASO win probability +24.0 pts (now 58%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 13:17: Ashton Jeanty 75 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — BOIS win probability +32.9 pts (now 75%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:43: Sire Gaines run for 38 yds for a TD (Jonah Dalmas KICK) — BOIS win probability +12.7 pts (now 94%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
GASO made the numbers' call on 5 of 7BOIS made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 13:25BOIS 4th & 5 at BOIS 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.3%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:46GASO 4th & 11 at GASO 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.7%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:01BOIS 4th & 6 at GASO 34, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 76.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    76.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    76.5%−0.1
    47% to make
    Punt
    76.3%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:13GASO 4th & 16 at GASO 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.2%−0.5
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.7%
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:00GASO 4th & 6 at BOIS 13, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 24.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.3%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    24.5%
    85% to make
    Punt
    20.0%−4.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:32GASO 4th & 4 at GASO 31, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.1%−0.4
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.5%
    average punt
  7. Q3 9:49BOIS 4th & 1 at BOIS 34, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    71.4%−1.7
    average punt
  8. Q4 9:46GASO 4th & 16 at BOIS 49, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.0%−3.8
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.8%
    average punt
  9. Q4 7:20GASO 4th & 10 at GASO 25, down 12
    Close callWent for it · 8.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.6%−0.5
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    8.1%
    average punt
  10. Q4 2:44GASO 4th & 10 at BOIS 13, down 19
    Close callWent for it · 2.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.7%−0.8
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    2.5%
    85% to make
    Punt
    1.0%−1.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
GASO made the numbers' call on 5 of 6BOIS made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 10:28BOIS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:50BOIS Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:28GASO Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    24.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    24.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 9:19BOIS Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 2:33BOIS Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:18GASO Touchdown, down 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 11:37GASO Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 6:48GASO Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 1:07BOIS Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    69.3%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    69.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 13:30GASO Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.4%−0.7
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 13:17BOIS Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    72.3%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    72.4%
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 7:43BOIS Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.3%−0.7
    45% to convert
  13. Q4 5:42BOIS Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.9%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.2%
    45% to convert
  14. Q4 2:04GASO Touchdown, down 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    3.4%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    3.6%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BOISDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:3480% → 79%
Q1 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
20.0%
Boise State Penalty, Personal Foul (Roger Carreon) to the BOIS 12Similar
Q1 14:39
2ND & 23
OWN 12
+13
20.2%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Latrell Caples for 13 yds to the BOIS 25Similar
Q1 14:06
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+5
20.5%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Matt Lauter for 5 yds to the BOIS 30Similar
Q1 13:25
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
20.9%
James Ferguson-Reynolds punt for 48 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 2:3121% → 22%
Q1 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
20.9%
JC French pass complete to Jalen White for no gain to the GASO 22Similar
Q1 12:53
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+15
21.1%
JC French pass complete to Dalen Cobb for 15 yds Dalen Cobb fumbled, recovered by GASO Bryson Broadway B. Broadway return for 0 yds for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-5
21.3%
Jalen White run for a loss of 5 yards to the GASO 32Similar
Q1 11:57
2ND & 15
OWN 32
+3
21.5%
Jalen White run for 3 yds to the GASO 35Similar
Q1 11:21
3RD & 12
OWN 35
+1
21.7%
JC French pass complete to Josh Dallas for 1 yd to the GASO 36Similar
Q1 10:46
4TH & 11
OWN 36
0
21.9%
Alex Smith punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Latrell Caples at the BOIS 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 3TD
1 play · 77 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
Q1 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+77
21.2%
Ashton Jeanty run for 77 yds for a TD (Jonah Dalmas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 4FUMBLE
5 plays · 21 yds · 0:5721% → 21%
Q1 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
20.8%
JC French pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:18
2ND & 10
OWN 29
0
20.7%
JC French pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:13
3RD & 10
OWN 29
+14
20.7%
OJ Arnold run for 14 yds to the GASO 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-1
21.2%
JC French pass complete to OJ Arnold for a loss of 1 yard to the GASO 42Similar
Q1 9:24
2ND & 11
OWN 42
+8
21.3%
JC French pass complete to Marcus Sanders Jr. for 8 yds fumbled, recovered by BOIS Alexander Teubner , return to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 5DOWNS
6 plays · 16 yds · 3:1579% → 79%
Q1 9:16
1ST & 10
50
+6
21.0%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Ashton Jeanty for 6 yds to the GASO 44Similar
Q1 8:44
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+6
21.0%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Chris Marshall for 6 yds to the GASO 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:05
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
20.9%
Ashton Jeanty run for 4 yds to the GASO 34Similar
Q1 7:31
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+5
21.0%
Ashton Jeanty run for 5 yds to the GASO 29Similar
Q1 6:46
3RD & 1
OPP 29
-5
21.0%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Ashton Jeanty for a loss of 5 yards to the GASO 34Similar
Q1 6:01
4TH & 6
OPP 34
0
21.4%
Maddux Madsen pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 6PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 0:4422% → 21%
Q1 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
21.6%
JC French pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:53
2ND & 10
OWN 34
-6
21.5%
JC French sacked by Braxton Fely for a loss of 6 yards to the GASO 28Similar
Q1 5:17
3RD & 16
OWN 28
0
21.3%
JC French pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:13
4TH & 16
OWN 28
0
21.3%
Alex Smith punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Latrell Caples at the BOIS 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 7TD
6 plays · 71 yds · 2:1678% → 82%
Q1 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-6
21.6%
(05:06) JEANTY, Ashton rush up the middle for a loss of 6 yards to the BOI29 (RHODES, Davion), clock 05:02. PENALTY GS Offsides on RHODES, Justin Before the snap, BOI Illegal Formation , Offsetting penalties [NH]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 4:38
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+18
21.9%
Sire Gaines run for 18 yds to the BOIS 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+11
21.3%
Sire Gaines run for 11 yds to the GASO 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:38
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+16
21.2%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Cameron Bates for 16 yds to the GASO 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:08
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
21.1%
Maddux Madsen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:50
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+26
18.4%
Ashton Jeanty run for 26 yds for a TD (Jonah Dalmas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 8TD
10 plays · 50 yds · 4:1420% → 24%
Q1 2:42
1ST & 10
50
+1
19.7%
Jalen White run for 1 yd to the BOIS 49Similar
Q1 2:08
2ND & 9
OPP 49
0
19.9%
JC French pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:02
3RD & 9
OPP 49
+9
19.8%
JC French pass complete to Josh Dallas for 9 yds to the BOIS 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+9
19.9%
JC French pass complete to Derwin Burgess Jr. for 9 yds to the BOIS 31Similar
Q1 0:51
2ND & 1
OPP 31
-5
20.1%
JC French sacked by Jake Ripp for a loss of 5 yards to the BOIS 36Similar
Q1 0:08
3RD & 6
OPP 36
+16
19.8%
JC French run for 16 yds to the BOIS 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:58
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
20.1%
JC French pass complete to Dalen Cobb for 4 yds to the BOIS 16Similar
Q2 14:20
2ND & 6
OPP 16
+10
20.2%
JC French run for 10 yds to the BOIS 6 JC French fumbled, recovered by GASO Dalen Cobb D. Cobb return for 0 yds for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
20.0%
(13:35) FRENCH, JC pass to the left incomplete intended for COBB, Dalen thrown to the BOI0, clock 13:32. PENALTY BOI Pass Interference on EARBY, Jeremiah enforced at the spot of the foul for 4 yards to the BOI2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 13:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
23.8%
Jalen White run for 2 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 9INT
3 plays · 1 yds · 0:4078% → 78%
Q2 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
21.9%
Ashton Jeanty run for 1 yd to the BOIS 24Similar
Q2 12:45
2ND & 9
OWN 24
0
22.0%
Maddux Madsen pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:40
3RD & 9
OWN 24
0
22.3%
Maddux Madsen pass intercepted Tyrell Davis return for no gain to the BOIS 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 10FG
5 plays · 18 yds · 1:3524% → 27%
Q2 12:35
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+14
24.0%
JC French pass complete to Tyler Fromm for 14 yds to the BOIS 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:17
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
24.0%
JC French run for 2 yds to the BOIS 15Similar
Q2 11:37
2ND & 8
OPP 15
+2
24.2%
Derwin Burgess Jr. run for 2 yds to the BOIS 13Similar
Q2 11:06
3RD & 6
OPP 13
0
23.7%
JC French pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:00
4TH & 6
OPP 13
+31
26.5%
Gavin Stewart 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 11TD
5 plays · 90 yds · 1:3774% → 81%
Q2 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+53
25.7%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Cameron Camper for 53 yds to the GASO 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:33
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+36
24.2%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Latrell Caples for 36 yds to the GASO 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
23.3%
Sire Gaines run for no gain to the GASO 1Similar
Q2 9:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
23.5%
Maddux Madsen pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:19
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
18.6%
Ashton Jeanty run for 1 yd for a TD (Jonah Dalmas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:4720% → 20%
Q2 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
19.9%
David Mbadinga run for 2 yds to the GASO 27Similar
Q2 8:38
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+26
19.9%
JC French run for 36 yds to the BOIS 37 Georgia Southern Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the GASO 25Similar
Q2 8:17
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
19.8%
David Mbadinga run for 6 yds to the GASO 31Similar
Q2 7:37
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
19.6%
JC French pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:32
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
19.5%
Alex Smith punt for 40 yds, downed at the BOIS 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 13TD
11 plays · 71 yds · 4:4981% → 89%
Q2 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+8
19.4%
Ashton Jeanty run for 8 yds to the BOIS 37Similar
Q2 6:46
2ND & 2
OWN 37
+3
19.2%
Ashton Jeanty run for 3 yds to the BOIS 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
18.8%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Chris Marshall for 7 yds to the BOIS 47Similar
Q2 5:26
2ND & 3
OWN 47
0
18.7%
Maddux Madsen pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:22
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+10
19.1%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Cameron Camper for 10 yds to the GASO 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:48
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+6
18.6%
Sire Gaines run for 6 yds to the GASO 37Similar
Q2 4:14
2ND & 4
OPP 37
+24
18.4%
Ashton Jeanty run for 24 yds to the GASO 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:36
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+1
18.3%
Sire Gaines run for 11 yds to the GASO 2 Boise State Penalty, Offensive Holding (Latrell Caples) to the GASO 20Similar
Q2 3:15
1ST & 17
OPP 20
+15
18.4%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Sire Gaines for 15 yds to the GASO 5Similar
Q2 2:33
2ND & 2
OPP 5
+5
10.8%
Ashton Jeanty run for 5 yds for a TD (Jonah Dalmas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 14TD
16 plays · 81 yds · 2:1017% → 19%
Q2 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+6
16.8%
Dalen Cobb run for 6 yds to the GASO 25Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 4
OWN 25
0
11.8%
Jalen White run for no gain to the GASO 25Similar
Q2 1:22
3RD & 4
OWN 25
+12
11.2%
JC French pass complete to Tyler Fromm for 12 yds to the GASO 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
12.7%
JC French pass complete to LV Bunkley-Shelton for 4 yds to the GASO 41Similar
Q2 1:05
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+4
13.0%
JC French run for 4 yds to the GASO 45Similar
Q2 0:59
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+3
11.6%
JC French run for 3 yds to the GASO 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
13.2%
JC French pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:49
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+18
13.1%
JC French pass complete to Dalen Cobb for 18 yds to the BOIS 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+15
13.9%
(00:36) FRENCH, JC pass deep to the left incomplete intended for BUNKLEY-SHELTON, LV thrown to the BOI15, clock 00:32. PENALTY BOI Pass Interference on EARBY, Jeremiah enforced 15 yards to the BOI19 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
14.1%
JC French pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:26
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+1
13.9%
JC French run for 1 yd to the BOIS 18Similar
Q2 0:18
3RD & 9
OPP 18
+18
18.9%
JC French pass complete to Dalen Cobb for 18 yds for a TD (Gavin Stewart KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 15END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q2 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
13.8%
(00:16) [NH] Kneel down by BOI at BOI23 (team loss of 2), clock 00:09.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 16TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:2319% → 32%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
19.1%
Jalen White run for 3 yds to the GASO 28Similar
Q3 14:33
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
19.3%
JC French pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:28
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+15
18.5%
(14:28) FRENCH, JC pass short to the left incomplete intended for BURGESS JR., Derwin thrown to the GS30, clock 14:23. PENALTY BOI Personal Foul on VIRGIN-MORGAN, Jayden enforced 15 yards from the GS28 to the GS43 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 14:23
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+9
19.9%
Jalen White run for 9 yds to the BOIS 48Similar
Q3 13:49
2ND & 1
OPP 48
-3
20.7%
JC French run for a loss of 3 yards to the GASO 49Similar
Q3 13:11
3RD & 4
OWN 49
+5
20.0%
JC French pass complete to Derwin Burgess Jr. for 5 yds to the BOIS 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:48
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+31
20.4%
JC French pass complete to Derwin Burgess Jr. for 31 yds to the BOIS 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:23
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
21.3%
JC French pass complete to Jalen White for 4 yds to the BOIS 11Similar
Q3 11:37
2ND & 6
OPP 11
+11
32.4%
JC French run for 11 yds for a TD (Gavin Stewart KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 17DOWNS
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:4874% → 73%
Q3 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
26.3%
Ashton Jeanty run for 6 yds to the BOIS 31Similar
Q3 11:05
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
25.3%
Ashton Jeanty run for no gain to the BOIS 31Similar
Q3 10:20
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+3
26.6%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Ashton Jeanty for 3 yds to the BOIS 34Similar
Q3 9:49
4TH & 1
OWN 34
-1
27.4%
Sire Gaines run for a loss of 1 yard to the BOIS 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 18TD
8 plays · 33 yds · 2:5633% → 53%
Q3 9:44
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
33.3%
JC French pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:40
2ND & 10
OPP 33
0
33.2%
JC French pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:34
3RD & 10
OPP 33
+16
31.2%
JC French pass complete to Sam Kenerson for 16 yds to the BOIS 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:16
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-2
33.4%
JC French sacked by Jayden Virgin-Morgan for a loss of 2 yards to the BOIS 19Similar
Q3 8:43
2ND & 12
OPP 19
+4
33.6%
JC French pass complete to LV Bunkley-Shelton for 4 yds to the BOIS 15Similar
Q3 8:10
3RD & 8
OPP 15
+14
32.2%
JC French pass complete to LV Bunkley-Shelton for 14 yds to the BOIS 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
34.2%
David Mbadinga run for no gain to the BOIS 1Similar
Q3 6:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
52.6%
Jalen White run for 1 yd for a TD (Gavin Stewart KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 19TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 5:3954% → 80%
Q3 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
46.2%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Latrell Caples for 16 yds to the BOIS 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
43.8%
Maddux Madsen pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:06
2ND & 10
OWN 41
-10
44.6%
Boise State Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the BOIS 32Similar
Q3 5:52
2ND & 19
OWN 32
+13
47.2%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Latrell Caples for 13 yds to the BOIS 45Similar
Q3 5:34
3RD & 6
OWN 45
+9
43.5%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Ben Ford for 9 yds to the GASO 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:14
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
42.1%
Ashton Jeanty run for 5 yds to the GASO 41Similar
Q3 4:51
2ND & 5
OPP 41
+3
41.4%
Ashton Jeanty run for 3 yds to the GASO 38Similar
Q3 4:14
3RD & 2
OPP 38
+3
42.1%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Latrell Caples for 3 yds to the GASO 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:39
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
41.2%
Maddux Madsen pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:35
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+12
41.4%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Sire Gaines for 12 yds to the GASO 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:08
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+15
40.9%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Cameron Camper for 15 yds to the GASO 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
41.3%
Ashton Jeanty run for 6 yds to the GASO 2Similar
Q3 1:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
41.6%
Ashton Jeanty run for 1 yd to the GASO 1Similar
Q3 1:07
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
20.0%
Ashton Jeanty run for 1 yd for a TD (Maddux Madsen pass to Cameron Camper for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 20TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 2:3327% → 58%
Q3 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+24
26.9%
Dalen Cobb run for 24 yds to the GASO 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+48
30.7%
JC French pass complete to Derwin Burgess Jr. for 48 yds to the BOIS 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
33.4%
JC French run for no gain to the BOIS 3Similar
Q4 14:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
33.6%
JC French run for no gain to the BOIS 3Similar
Q4 13:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
57.6%
JC French pass complete to Beau Johnson for 3 yds for a TD (Gavin Stewart KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 21TD
1 play · 75 yds · 0:0075% → 75%
Q4 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
24.7%
Ashton Jeanty 75 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 22PUNT
10 plays · 33 yds · 3:2427% → 22%
Q4 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+13
27.0%
JC French pass complete to Marcus Sanders Jr. for 13 yds to the GASO 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
27.9%
JC French pass complete to Beau Johnson for 7 yds to the GASO 38Similar
Q4 12:06
2ND & 3
OWN 38
+2
31.0%
Jalen White run for 2 yds to the GASO 40Similar
Q4 11:31
3RD & 1
OWN 40
+6
30.0%
JC French run for 6 yds to the GASO 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+11
24.3%
DeAndre Buchannon run for 11 yds to the BOIS 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
25.8%
JC French pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:15
2ND & 10
OPP 43
0
25.1%
JC French pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:12
3RD & 10
OPP 43
-6
24.3%
JC French sacked for a loss of 6 yards to the BOIS 49 TEAM fumbled, recovered by GASO , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 9:46
4TH & 16
OPP 49
0
22.4%
Alex Smith punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Latrell Caples at the BOIS 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 23TD
4 plays · 86 yds · 1:5777% → 94%
Q4 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+21
23.1%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Cameron Camper for 21 yds to the BOIS 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+18
21.1%
Ashton Jeanty run for 18 yds to the GASO 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:33
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+9
18.6%
Sire Gaines run for 9 yds to the GASO 38Similar
Q4 7:43
2ND & 1
OPP 38
+38
5.9%
Sire Gaines run for 38 yds for a TD (Jonah Dalmas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 24DOWNS
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:156% → 6%
Q4 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
6.2%
JC French pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:29
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
6.1%
JC French pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:25
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
5.9%
JC French pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:20
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
5.8%
JC French pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 25TD
5 plays · 25 yds · 1:3294% → 99%
Q4 7:14
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-5
5.6%
Sire Gaines run for a loss of 5 yards to the GASO 30Similar
Q4 6:38
2ND & 15
OPP 30
-15
5.8%
(06:38) MADSEN, Maddux pass up the middle incomplete intended for CAMPER, Cameron thrown to the GS15, clock 06:34. PENALTY BOI Pass Interference on CAMPER, Cameron enforced 15 yards to the GS45 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 6:33
2ND & 30
OPP 45
+28
5.3%
Sire Gaines run for 28 yds to the GASO 17 Sire Gaines fumbled, recovered by BOIS Austin Bolt A. Bolt return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q4 5:42
3RD & 2
OPP 17
+17
1.2%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Sire Gaines for 17 yds for a TD (Jonah Dalmas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 26TD
15 plays · 65 yds · 3:381% → 8%
Q4 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
0.9%
JC French pass complete to Jalen White for no gain to the GASO 35Similar
Q4 5:19
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-10
0.8%
(05:19) QB Keeper FRENCH, JC rush to the right for a gain of 8 yards to the GS43 (BENEFIELD, Ty), clock 05:11. PENALTY GS Holding on STRONG, Chandler enforced 10 yards from the GS35 to the GS25 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 20
OWN 25
+10
0.9%
JC French pass complete to Jalen White for 10 yds to the GASO 35Similar
Q4 4:28
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+10
0.8%
JC French pass complete to Josh Dallas for 10 yds to the GASO 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-10
0.8%
(03:57) FRENCH, JC sacked for a loss of 2 yards at the GS43 (SIMPSON, Andrew), clock 03:52. PENALTY GS Holding on BOYD, Dom enforced 10 yards from the GS45 to the GS35 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 3:49
1ST & 20
OWN 35
+34
0.8%
JC French pass complete to DeAndre Buchannon for 34 yds to the BOIS 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:29
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+18
0.9%
Jalen White run for 18 yds to the BOIS 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:01
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
0.9%
JC French pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:58
2ND & 10
OPP 13
0
0.9%
JC French pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:53
3RD & 10
OPP 13
0
0.8%
JC French pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:44
4TH & 10
OPP 13
+12
0.7%
JC French pass complete to DeAndre Buchannon for 12 yds to the BOIS 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
1.0%
JC French pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
8.2%
Jalen White run for 1 yd for a TD (J. French Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 27END OF 4TH QUARTER
7 plays · 7 yds · 1:2797% → 98%
Q4 2:02
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
3.5%
Sire Gaines run for 1 yd to the GASO 43Similar
Q4 1:56
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+2
2.4%
Sire Gaines run for 2 yds to the GASO 41Similar
Q4 1:51
3RD & 7
OPP 41
+8
2.4%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Matt Lauter for 8 yds to the GASO 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:12
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-2
2.3%
run for a loss of 2 yards to the GASO 35Similar
Q4 0:35
2ND & 12
OPP 35
-2
2.3%
run for a loss of 2 yards to the GASO 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 13:17
Ashton Jeanty 75 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
-32.9
TD · Q4 13:30
JC French pass complete to Beau Johnson for 3 yds for a TD (Gavin Stewart KICK)
+24
TD · Q3 1:07
Ashton Jeanty run for 1 yd for a TD (Maddux Madsen pass to Cameron Camper for Two-Point Conversion)
-22.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com